Implementation Wars - Dialogue 2023

Its champions have described the Inflation Reduction Act as the federal government, finally, dedicating its full
financial might to the climate crisis. If the energy systems modelers and economists who have studied the law
are in the ballpark, multiple trillions of dollars are on the table. And, barring any (not inconceivable) legislative
rollbacks, the tax credits and other policies that make up the IRA will likely benefit American industries
for decades to come. Yet the political consensus underwriting IRA might be shakier than is commonly
assumed. A relatively unknown law, passed on a party-line Reconciliation vote, hardly feels like a third rail
that Republicans, and perhaps even some Democrats, would be unwilling to touch. And many obstacles and
pitfalls remain, from supply-side bottlenecks to uncertain consumer response to new financial incentives
to unrequited permitting reforms that the law’s backers are counting on to maximize its efficacy. Despite
significant alignment among forecasters and modelers on the law’s long-term impact, it seems plausible that
more of the IRA’s aggregate outcome will be determined in its implementation than in its passage.