Everyone wasting their time watching the left and the right duke it out on CNN and Fox news. People need to educate themselves watching videos like this. Old Uncle Mitlon is a beast of a lecturer. This is real education here. 🔥🔥🔥
agreed....but as friedman has said the educational system isn't up to par.....you need to have some intellectual basis beforehand and an open mind to truly grasp his ideas
I live in Argentina who took road of free lunch, public spent and socialism long time ago. Our inflation rate is 3000% over the past 10 years. We facing a major economy breakdown every decade too. Our poverty is +50% and rising. Im 45 and already experienced 3 hiperinflations and two social uprisings (the 3rd is coming soon). Never, never take the free lunch socialist road. It has hell at the end.
Fuck Friedman, Hayek, the Mont Pellerin Society, the Chicago Boys, and the entire failed neoliberal project- and fuck all the deluded sociopaths still buying into it. Wake up already. IT DIDN'T WORK.
To control inflation we need to control de Money Supply. At the year 2013 was discovered The Progressive Growth of Money Supply Principle, which say you how much the Money Supply must growth, i.e., the quantity of money that markets needs: ua-cam.com/video/iiKr-i022mY/v-deo.html Once the Fractional Reserve Banking is forbidden, if the Central Bank increases the money supply by an amount equal to the sum of interest generated by the financial system during the preceding period, the market interest rate will be the natural interest (Wicksell) and we won't have bubbles (tulips, gold, stocks, etc.) and crisis. Thanks to the Progressive Growth of the Money Supply Principle we know today that it is impossible to return to the Gold Standard. The Principle will force Central Banks to change de monetary policies.
0:56 Begins 17:08 3 reasons why we have inflation and why it's a threat: #1 to pay for government expenses 18:03 Real tax is what the government spends 18:35 Inflation is a tax 19:51 Bills are receipts on taxes you've paid. Bills are tax receipts. 20:53 When you "deposit" in a bank, they loan your money 21:20 Think of it as printing money 21:46 Inflation raises other taxes without people having to vote 21:58 You might think if prices go up by 10% and your pay goes up 10% you're even, but you might pay more if you reach higher tax bracket 23:15 Government repudiates its debt. Debt gets smaller as % of national income. Their deficits are financed by inflation. 26:04 Creation of money to finance government expenditures 26:30 When unemployment creeped up, government spent and printed more 27:39 From 1929 to 1933 the quantity of money decreased by 1/3rd (Great Depression) 28:38 Trade unions aren't responsible for inflation. Higher wages are a result of inflation, not a cause of it 29:44 Before 1971 inflation could be exported/imported 32:25 Productivity is important to raising standard of living, but lowers inflation 33:25 The determinant of inflation is the quantity of money 37:30 During past 30 years, inflation paid off mortgages and government debt 37:58 Inflation causes great prosperity and great distress 39:40 Unemployment is not a cure for inflation, but it's a side effect of the cure 40:41 Slow growth and high unemployment to slow inflation 41:49 When demand goes up everywhere, although you may be selling/profiting more (if you own a business), you'll also have to pay more everywhere else, (so you aren't really better off in terms of purchasing power) 42:22 More money takes about 5 to 6 months for people to save and spend, then another 12 to 18 months for inflation results 46:44 Government indexes its own salaries but not the taxes imposed on citizens 47:44 High inflation will lead to high unemployment. Wage and price control (fixation) is supposed to inflate, not fix (though it's promoted as a fix) 50:38 Since 1960, up and down with inflation, but keeps getting higher progressively 53:50 Increased money supply increases inflation 54:30 We've paid the price of stopping inflation but haven't gotten the benefits, because government continues printing once inflation starts to slow 55:08 We don't have good options anymore (either get a recession or have super high inflation) 57:28 Inflation is a disease 58:27 Questions begin
This man’s wisdom is more relevant today than ever! He wouldn’t know whether to laugh or cry if he saw where we are today. Must see TV are the episodes of Phil Donahue with Milton. His protégé has become quite the force of nature as well, Thomas Sowell.
@@Frontslash123 The money supply alone cannot cause inflation if there is no impact on the value of the currency he always blalmes goverment never the private sector
Funkle D The great parliamentarian Enoch Powell even espoused the economic truisms before Milton but Milton received the Nobel prize but I believe Milton did write and acknowledge Enoch Powell’s input Enoch spoke 14 languages brilliant man much misrepresented by gutter press and people
He certainly had swagger. He certainly made economics cool. Do you want to discuss what the "Chicago School"'s idiocy has done to this country from the standpoint of practical reality and actual effect? In my opinion, it's several hundred thousand folks a year thinking the way you do that have given complete and utter control of, essentially, everything, to the federal reserve institutions this man claims to rail against. Do you want a list of folks who "make some good points" whose behavior also actively enriches those who are clear enemies of those populations they claim to represent? (He demonizes Jesse Jackson elsewhere while constructively doing the exact same thing). This man uses a lot of "illustrative" examples about sugar beets and tariffs involving sums on the order of cents, amounts that affected persons' personal well being on the order of tenths of percents while ignoring stealing of the exact same nature occurring in the credit markets during the time that he was prolific and "an authority," yet mysteriously based upon the exact same premises and principles, yet somehow he failed to fashion a hypothetical involving sums that would have actually affected quality of life. Weird. Everything this man said from, like, 1980 or thereabouts forward, i.e, after he "wised up," was fake news and a "spin job" on what data might actually reveal about the interplay between monetary policy and the underlying fundamental presumption of all economic theory, i.e. that "rational actors" were ever a real thing (as defined in economic terms) and are actually a creature extant in significant numbers sufficient to warrant reliance upon mathematical modeling in this regard, well, I think this gentleman died about two years prior to being outed as either a fraud,or, at the very minimum, one who should have done more diligence with respect to the quality of their underlying assumptions.
I mean, I hope you're not suggesting that he's brilliant merely by pointing out how inflation works. See below. Yep, the gov't doesn't take responsibility for inflation, but neither does he take responsibility for espousing anarchy, which has actually resulted (and with government's help, no less).
Well spoken and executed! I'm non partisan and I don't usually agree with his philosophy, but Mr. Friedman is probably my top 5 American intellectuals to ever set foot on earth
We're already feeling the good effects now, businesses can get through short term losses, wages subsidised (up to 80% in the UK I don't know where you are from). Then we get through the lockdown, businesses start reopening and trade resumes, but the downturns are coming unfortunately. One problem after another.
Robert Osborn yes, when foreign countries decide to stop paying their debts in dollars back, or commodities like oil stop trading in dollars. Both of which our military is there to prevent.
@@MIKESTREED when you say foreign countries pay their debt. Do you mean debt to U.S companies or debt to U.S Gov't? Or both? Elaborate please (for ex. Why do foreign countries owe the U.S Gov't?)
“Governments don’t learn because Government never learn!” Milton Friedman and Billy Graham were two of our most influential “Philosophers” of the 20th Century! I’m glad I lived to experience both of them🙏🤔
Friedman is sharp but he was always dancing on eggshells carefully avoiding putting the blame where it fully belongs because he knew and feared to do it for his life and career. He came close a few times in his career. An hour long talk on inflation and not one mention of the crime of fractional reserve banking? It is the mechanism by which money is multiplied! Wow...just wow...
Notice the duplicity of the state educators in Michigan and California/corrupotifornia. Both states had balanced budget bills that were defeated because the educators opposed them. Educators are supposed to be teaching ethics and morality and setting examples and yet they sided with the "Dark Side" that opposed economic honesty.
Teachers Unions are probably the biggest threat to America’s future. The only thing saving us is are skilled immigrants who are the smartest of their countries, if were being honest. The average American is getting a shit education and being taught that the system is out to get them.
My thoughts exactly. He is saying never have we seen an increase in money supply without inflation. If that’s the case what would he say about 3 trillion that was just printed? Granted we are seeing it in asset prices. But not how I think he defines inflation. Such as CPI
The highest earning county even after all of these years is still in in Virginia and is described as a “Suburb of Washington DC”. Although now it is Loudoun instead of Fairfax.
It’s funny listening to these things from the late 70s knowing Reagan would be elected a year or two from then. Friedman’s point about people finally waking up to what is going on was realized in that short period of time.
59:30 a most important systemic principle. Same logic that keeps bad actors within Bitcoin from being malicious. It's more profitable to contribute computational power towards the mining process than it is to engage in an attack on the consensus.
Not really.. A growing economy and GDP needs monetary growth ie a larger quantity of money in order to keep prices stable, remember money and economics is not a zero sum game, a new hit song creates a new service/good creates a new demand which must be met with society having a wee bit more money to spread around there to the artist and the artists affiliates in a sense anyway. Deflation is rare because a Government will never - somewhat understandably - sit back and not artificially raise spending (monetary stimulus). Is Deflation "better", well if you are 50+ yrs old and have a large bank account, but if you are an entrepreneur trying to make a new service or good, then no, because saving money is too attractive to those with money because it doesnt even need interest its buying power is simply growing with time.
Deflation is bad. Here’s one reason. The consumer puts off spending , because they hope prices to be even cheaper in the near future. And so there’s less consumption of goods and services, therefore businesses suffer and lay workers off. And so , now there’s a mass of unemployed, these don’t have the disposable income to consumer g+s, therefore there’s even less consumption in the economy, deflation gets worse , consumers put their spending off even more etc etc
The great depression happened precisely because of deflation. The prices will go down to a point that firms can no longer profit which leads to bankruptcy or cutting work force which then leads to unemployment and poverty. Neither inflation nor deflation are good.
The issue isn't whether inflation or deflation is better, but how rapidly the onset of either one is allowed to occur in relation to the amount of goods and services available in a particular economy. Inflation and deflation in extremes completely stall an economy because the price structure becomes unstable. In your particular case... Deflation does make your money worth more, but in a case of extreme deflation, nobody spends because they will be richer tomorrow if they hold their money today. If nobody spends, the economy stalls.
Globalization of trade. China opening its doors to participate in world economy along with other large economies creates lower costs jurisdictions for goods (and sometimes services) that are available for wealthy western economies to import.
I believe the FED manages the supply of money according to the demand of money (bank loans etc). There is also asset inflation (stocks etc), other than monetary inflation. (something along those lines)
The rate is in such way manipulated /calculated that it shows a lower number...if it would be measured the way tjey did in tze 60s 70s it would be much higher
"Low inflation" is a complete myth in 2020. The prices of several products including school tuition, medical bills, insurance, automobiles, housing, food, stocks, and so many other items and services are exponentially more expensive in dollars. The extreme rise in debt with more currency created than production causes real high inflation in 2020. Oil glut and technological progressive items like computers are the few exceptions at this time. The USA now has $30 trillion of current debt with easily over $100 trillion in future obligations. A balanced budget let alone paying off some debt would help but is clearly not politically expedient in government. Oh, and that is just Federal problems; states and cities are at least struggling with budgets at best to drowning in debt with more future debt. The majority of the world follows debt laden inflation as well often worse than the USA. In short, we have a lot of work to stop hyper inflation in reality.
Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
Breathe slightly easier that Bernie bowed out of the presidential nomination race. That said, we still have real problems ahead with hyper inflation if government spending is not reduced to balance, let alone pay off some debt.
Well Bernie is only saying to prioritize spending, as why continue to spend almost 1 trillion a year in the military. No body questions that spending you know.
I wish the publisher had mentioned when this lecture was delivered. By listening to the whole lecture I gathered it was delivered in 1979. Any discussion on inflation (or any economic trend) is meaningless if we cannot place it in time. Assuming this lecture was delivered in 1979, Prof Friedman was prophetic. In the following 4 years inflation did rise to double digits. But judging from 2019 vantage point, US had an average inflation rate of 2.14 percent over a period of 22 years. The constant story I read is that most world governments are struggling to get the rate up, rather than down. What could have the professor said about this long period of low inflation (and, continuing economic woes)?
As Friedman correctly notes, in the long run, homeowners benefit from inflation vis-a-vis long-term mortgages which effectively cheapen over time. Another important yet overlooked point many inflation critics miss is that inflation is necessary to account for market expansion. As the relative value of currency falls, people seek to spend or invest their money to avoid "depreciation", this in turn spurs economic activity. Supposing a system had little inflation or perhaps even deflation, in such a system, people would presumably seek to hold their money for as long as possible as it would be appreciating; the velocity of money would in turn slow, as would economic growth. Can anyone explain why reasonable levels of inflation i.e. 2% aren't beneficial for long term economic expansion?
Rees-Mogg for PM circa 77-78 I think. He recorded these lectures with the intention to use them for his Free To Choose program but later decided against it.
It's been clear that during the past 10 years or so the amount of money (and credit) per output as been raising as well as government spending, both in UE and Europe. Why is that we have enjoyed a period with such as low levels of inflation too?
Great question. It's all, primarily, in asset inflation. Most people think of inflation as only goods and services inflation. Inflation is the price of anything going up. The typical measure of inflation reported on and which central banks use does not include the price of assets, though it used to include it. Today we have historically high asset inflation. We have historically high property prices in many cities. We have an historically high stock market (notwithstanding the Covid shock). Bond yields are at historical lows - some government bonds are even negative. Yields are driven down as the price of bonds go up. If we included assets, inflation is running at an extremely high rate. Many people are victims of inflation today, just as they were in the 70's - those WITHOUT assets. Those WITH assets are the beneficiaries. For example, from the perspective of a young person just starting their career, or low income earner trying to buy a home, the ratio between average income to average house prices has widened considerably. It is much more burdensome to buy a home today on an average salary than in the past. The fact that we don't have goods and services inflation in the real economy indicates most of the money created from QE and fiscal stimulus since the GFC, has overwhelming settled at the very top end of society. Providing 'liquidity' to banks in the financial sector, large corporations and the general investing class have only led to historical high asset inflation. One mechanism by which this happens is via share buy backs. Companies in America have been increasing considerably their rate of share-buy backs, where the company purchases back it's own stock, driving up the price, and company managers are rewarded with performance bonuses. Thus inequality widens in America and many other countries around the world. We can expect even further record breaking asset inflation from the Covid stimulus. Either this, or the great financial and debt bubble of the 21st century will finally reach it's limit and burst. T
Diego Moreno yes but Keynes said inflation is caused when there is low unemployment, because in a good economy, people spend more, causing the price of goods to go up. In other words if you have high unemployment, you have low inflation because there is less consumer spending. But his theory was proven false when in the 70’s you had a period of both high unemployment and high inflation, a phenomenon known as stagflation. Friedman predicted stagflation would occur and it did.
g agreed. Id also add however that the stagflation effect was due to insanely rare circumstances and we shouldn’t expect it to happen again in the near future for all intents and purposes
@@stevencable6317 A new era of stagflation is the very predictable outcome of the Green New Deal. Energy prices will rise, real wages will fall, nominal wages will rise, jobs will be lost as output contracts, people will lobby the Government to do something about it. Rinse and repeat. Already happening in France. The COVID crisis is another reason that could very well lead to the same. People are clamoring for free money.
Our inflation rate has been around 2% since 2004 , so isn’t that a good thing when this was produced in 1978 the inflation rate was above 8% before it ramped up then trended downwards and we’ve been around 2% for over 15 years ?
Just as relevant today in 2023 as back then, when this was recorded…Except, its not just government in this inflation, albeit indirectly. It’s been a new mistake (as MF mentioned), Country banks have raised teh quantity of money in their countries all the while satisfying teh politicians want to creating more housing for their voters. Less public housing, and more private investment housing….where did all the money come from? For Australia, Canada, NZ…America….mostly comes from banks taking in loans from short term money markets…especially in Europe where interest rates are 0 or less (neg), and/or China being productive plus money printers in the aim of keeping their currency manipulated to be attractive to all the worldwide consumers who buy their products. All these countries with way way over priced huoses, also see their quantities of money quadruple in the last 20 years…all the same time that Europe banks low rates, China manipulate their currencies AND each of these countries (suffering inflation) have seen their governments trying to be market makers in housing. This is trictly western, developed countries…the under developed countries will have their own unique flavour of inflation. But 1 thing is for sure amongst the Anglo sphere..the private banks in step with their wonky politicians (who mostly have multiple housing themselves) have rightly abused their printing press (not treasury), by ways of indirectly but yet explicitly saying and confirming that their banks are “pillars of society”…meaning they will not (in their mind) and CANNOT fail. Just means inflation is here to stay…the quantity of money will rise and we WILL NEVER default…we will just print more money via teh central banks and not allow anyone to fail, nor go through the experience of having to request a saviour monetary loan from the discount window. All bets are off for prudent management…we refuse to accept failure. Throw in credit cards and all other kinds of derivative products to get consumer spending…then the financial wizards at these banks (fully endorsed by govts) will only ensure inflation periods will last longer. Extension of credit to purchase products will be on the decline (in number) will allow prices to go to a level that makes the govt backed money meaningless. It can never be converted by choice (with freedom)… no, todays world has changed much from MF time with this speech…there are new mistakes being made…but his rock solid fundamentals seem to be ignored….truly amazing. Some people await the second coming of Jesus….right now, we need the second coming of MF.
I don't believe that people who invented that many things being creative and inventive so much they can't invent system which will satisfy all of us. Its just greediness and commonness of people.
Alternative viewpoint on the Weimar Germany point Milton is making here: they were saddled with war reparations and the productive capacity of their economy was destroyed. Aggregate demand outstripped supply thus causing hyperinflation. The idea that this was solely a monetary phenomenon isn't the only perspective.
It was brilliant, but hasn't mentioned anything about the velocity of money. Only about the quantity of money. But no matter if big quantity of money, if velocity is very small, you won't get inflation. What we living now.
Everyone wasting their time watching the left and the right duke it out on CNN and Fox news. People need to educate themselves watching videos like this. Old Uncle Mitlon is a beast of a lecturer. This is real education here. 🔥🔥🔥
agreed....but as friedman has said the educational system isn't up to par.....you need to have some intellectual basis beforehand and an open mind to truly grasp his ideas
The one thing I love most about Friedman is that unshakable cheeky look on his face - it’s like he’s doing econ-stand up
This is a time jewel that must be preserved to protect future generations from government mismanagement
I live in Argentina who took road of free lunch, public spent and socialism long time ago. Our inflation rate is 3000% over the past 10 years. We facing a major economy breakdown every decade too. Our poverty is +50% and rising. Im 45 and already experienced 3 hiperinflations and two social uprisings (the 3rd is coming soon). Never, never take the free lunch socialist road. It has hell at the end.
I can watch Uncle Milty whole day and still can't get enough of him.
Me too!!
Me three
It's uncle Millie, not Milty
Fuck Friedman, Hayek, the Mont Pellerin Society, the Chicago Boys, and the entire failed neoliberal project- and fuck all the deluded sociopaths still buying into it. Wake up already. IT DIDN'T WORK.
To control inflation we need to control de Money Supply. At the year 2013 was discovered The Progressive Growth of Money Supply Principle, which say you how much the Money Supply must growth, i.e., the quantity of money that markets needs: ua-cam.com/video/iiKr-i022mY/v-deo.html Once the Fractional Reserve Banking is forbidden, if the Central Bank increases the money supply by an amount equal to the sum of interest generated by the financial system during the preceding period, the market interest rate will be the natural interest (Wicksell) and we won't have bubbles (tulips, gold, stocks, etc.) and crisis. Thanks to the Progressive Growth of the Money Supply Principle we know today that it is impossible to return to the Gold Standard. The Principle will force Central Banks to change de monetary policies.
0:56 Begins
17:08 3 reasons why we have inflation and why it's a threat: #1 to pay for government expenses
18:03 Real tax is what the government spends
18:35 Inflation is a tax
19:51 Bills are receipts on taxes you've paid. Bills are tax receipts.
20:53 When you "deposit" in a bank, they loan your money
21:20 Think of it as printing money
21:46 Inflation raises other taxes without people having to vote
21:58 You might think if prices go up by 10% and your pay goes up 10% you're even,
but you might pay more if you reach higher tax bracket
23:15 Government repudiates its debt. Debt gets smaller as % of national income.
Their deficits are financed by inflation.
26:04 Creation of money to finance government expenditures
26:30 When unemployment creeped up, government spent and printed more
27:39 From 1929 to 1933 the quantity of money decreased by 1/3rd (Great Depression)
28:38 Trade unions aren't responsible for inflation. Higher wages are a result of inflation, not a cause of it
29:44 Before 1971 inflation could be exported/imported
32:25 Productivity is important to raising standard of living, but lowers inflation
33:25 The determinant of inflation is the quantity of money
37:30 During past 30 years, inflation paid off mortgages and government debt
37:58 Inflation causes great prosperity and great distress
39:40 Unemployment is not a cure for inflation, but it's a side effect of the cure
40:41 Slow growth and high unemployment to slow inflation
41:49 When demand goes up everywhere, although you may be selling/profiting more (if you own a business), you'll also have to pay more everywhere else, (so you aren't really better off in terms of purchasing power)
42:22 More money takes about 5 to 6 months for people to save and spend, then another 12 to 18 months for inflation results
46:44 Government indexes its own salaries but not the taxes imposed on citizens
47:44 High inflation will lead to high unemployment.
Wage and price control (fixation) is supposed to inflate, not fix (though it's promoted as a fix)
50:38 Since 1960, up and down with inflation, but keeps getting higher progressively
53:50 Increased money supply increases inflation
54:30 We've paid the price of stopping inflation but haven't gotten the benefits,
because government continues printing once inflation starts to slow
55:08 We don't have good options anymore (either get a recession or have super high inflation)
57:28 Inflation is a disease
58:27 Questions begin
It's insane how resonant this is today, considering this video is dated 1978
Get ready for high inflation again in the US
This man’s wisdom is more relevant today than ever! He wouldn’t know whether to laugh or cry if he saw where we are today. Must see TV are the episodes of Phil Donahue with Milton. His protégé has become quite the force of nature as well, Thomas Sowell.
Capitalist greed is the cause of inflation.
@@kimobrien. you didn't listen to a word of this, did you Kim?
YOU NEED HELP IF YOU TRULY BELIEVE THAT
So by the government increasing the money supply automatically is = to higher prices on goods that does not make any sense
@@Frontslash123 The money supply alone cannot cause inflation if there is no impact on the value of the currency he always blalmes goverment never the private sector
Capitalism and Freedom, on my Kindle I carry it everywhere. I can't get enough of the genius of Milton Friedman.
Funkle D The great parliamentarian Enoch Powell even espoused the economic truisms before Milton but Milton received the Nobel prize but I believe Milton did write and acknowledge Enoch Powell’s input Enoch spoke 14 languages brilliant man much misrepresented by gutter press and people
Enoch Powell said exactly same as Friedman here namely ‘only government causes inflation ‘
Brilliant, as always from Friedman. He made Economics cool, so much intellectual swagger this man had.
He certainly had swagger. He certainly made economics cool. Do you want to discuss what the "Chicago School"'s idiocy has done to this country from the standpoint of practical reality and actual effect? In my opinion, it's several hundred thousand folks a year thinking the way you do that have given complete and utter control of, essentially, everything, to the federal reserve institutions this man claims to rail against. Do you want a list of folks who "make some good points" whose behavior also actively enriches those who are clear enemies of those populations they claim to represent? (He demonizes Jesse Jackson elsewhere while constructively doing the exact same thing). This man uses a lot of "illustrative" examples about sugar beets and tariffs involving sums on the order of cents, amounts that affected persons' personal well being on the order of tenths of percents while ignoring stealing of the exact same nature occurring in the credit markets during the time that he was prolific and "an authority," yet mysteriously based upon the exact same premises and principles, yet somehow he failed to fashion a hypothetical involving sums that would have actually affected quality of life. Weird. Everything this man said from, like, 1980 or thereabouts forward, i.e, after he "wised up," was fake news and a "spin job" on what data might actually reveal about the interplay between monetary policy and the underlying fundamental presumption of all economic theory, i.e. that "rational actors" were ever a real thing (as defined in economic terms) and are actually a creature extant in significant numbers sufficient to warrant reliance upon mathematical modeling in this regard, well, I think this gentleman died about two years prior to being outed as either a fraud,or, at the very minimum, one who should have done more diligence with respect to the quality of their underlying assumptions.
@@marketsareopenmao Wrong. Without Friedman, clarity of thought is possible.
I mean, I hope you're not suggesting that he's brilliant merely by pointing out how inflation works. See below. Yep, the gov't doesn't take responsibility for inflation, but neither does he take responsibility for espousing anarchy, which has actually resulted (and with government's help, no less).
Swagger, but not arrogance. Remarkable
Made me love economics, declared it as my double major @ school and I am going to start readin economics literature this summdr
On virus pandemic - Covid 19. Uncle Milton's videos are great time investment.
Can you pls give me a few links?
@@UllahMohd seach, free to choose UA-cam. His interview with the communist phil Donahue is awesome.
It's a great time to watch this video.
To all skeptics, this guy predicted the recession in 1980,its so subtle and yet so amazing
1:03:47 - The suit and swag on this absolute legend
Ah the days where "Unfunded Liabilities" was only 3 trillion.
This man was a genius.
Absolute gem of a talk and still relevant years after it was held
Economics is like a cheesecake, if you listen to Milton Friedman! What a legend!
1:06:00: of the video: I was 10 years old when this video came out and we never received and "economic education" in school then or now.
Oh the irony, I've got a Paul Krugman class advert in front of Milton Friedman talk :)
Well spoken and executed! I'm non partisan and I don't usually agree with his philosophy, but Mr. Friedman is probably my top 5 American intellectuals to ever set foot on earth
It's been just half of the video and I'm already full of new good things to recall before the video ends.
so many topics hit on that affect us today and is still supremely relevant.
If the government doesn't stop with the current Covid 19 spending bills we will be hurting for some time.
YES!! It's going to hurt us big time!!
We're already feeling the good effects now, businesses can get through short term losses, wages subsidised (up to 80% in the UK I don't know where you are from).
Then we get through the lockdown, businesses start reopening and trade resumes, but the downturns are coming unfortunately. One problem after another.
Its a plandemic scamdemic
Who else is here to find out what is about to happen to the US dollar?
Maybe get yourself a little bitcoin
Robert Osborn yes, when foreign countries decide to stop paying their debts in dollars back, or commodities like oil stop trading in dollars. Both of which our military is there to prevent.
you don't need to run your monetary policy competently, you just need to be a little bit better than everyone else.
@@Fx_- or, as a matter Gov't will have spent so much that inflation will be insane and other countries will ditch the U.S Dollar as their benchmark
@@MIKESTREED when you say foreign countries pay their debt. Do you mean debt to U.S companies or debt to U.S Gov't? Or both? Elaborate please (for ex. Why do foreign countries owe the U.S Gov't?)
He was a true financial genius.
“Governments don’t learn because Government never learn!” Milton Friedman and Billy Graham were two of our most influential “Philosophers” of the 20th Century! I’m glad I lived to experience both of them🙏🤔
He throws down some good ass zingers and gets no laughs. What a shame.
Friedman is sharp but he was always dancing on eggshells carefully avoiding putting the blame where it fully belongs because he knew and feared to do it for his life and career. He came close a few times in his career. An hour long talk on inflation and not one mention of the crime of fractional reserve banking? It is the mechanism by which money is multiplied! Wow...just wow...
The real explanation for money printer go brrrr
Notice the duplicity of the state educators in Michigan and California/corrupotifornia. Both states had balanced budget bills that were defeated because the educators opposed them. Educators are supposed to be teaching ethics and morality and setting examples and yet they sided with the "Dark Side" that opposed economic honesty.
Teachers Unions are probably the biggest threat to America’s future. The only thing saving us is are skilled immigrants who are the smartest of their countries, if were being honest. The average American is getting a shit education and being taught that the system is out to get them.
How can anyone give this man a thumbs down 🤔
That are the 1% Capitalist Cronies. Now you know it too. Yw.
What year was this speech made in? Oh it was 1977 based on what he said at 51:55 "1976, last year"
1979 everyone in the audience is wearing suites and ties. Today, it's dirty jeans and t-shirt.
Still holds true today, I understood it twenty years ago, but most of the population has learned nothing.
Inflation is a government phenomenon
We've not had another Milton as of yet ! Damn we miss this guy !
in case of this video has been watched 1 million times, there are hope for a good economy in the world
So... The ultimate cure is for money to be separated from government.
It amazes me how time transcends information democratization! I agree with many others who have pensively commented previously.
1978 the US National Debt was $778 billion. We are currently at $33 Trillion.
It's a shame that there are only 53,000 views of this video four years after it was posted... I particularly enjoyed his thoughts @ 46:11
We need more people him in our society.
Poor guy probably is turning in his grave now.
When he spoke everyone listens.
Imagine Friedman in 2023 with the huge balance sheet of the FED and too much money in the system.
Brilliant words from a brilliant man.
Ladies and gentlemen, I must say that, "Never, never, ever go under the debt which you can't pay." Burak Ş. :)
What do you all think Milton would think of the FEDs actions during this pandemic?
My thoughts exactly. He is saying never have we seen an increase in money supply without inflation. If that’s the case what would he say about 3 trillion that was just printed? Granted we are seeing it in asset prices. But not how I think he defines inflation. Such as CPI
Seems like he was talking about it the whole time cause it’s typical to see government printing and spending more so inflation seems to be inevitable
he would say there is no pandemic its a plandemic scamdemic
Thanks for ghostly message in the small town from the hereafter dealing with the environment
I so wish that I could smile like he does when he reasons. I just can't.
John I have thought about that too Lol
I wonder what he would say today???
Why am I watching this today?
Please someone tell me...
The highest earning county even after all of these years is still in in Virginia and is described as a “Suburb of Washington DC”. Although now it is Loudoun instead of Fairfax.
estas charlas son oro
It’s funny listening to these things from the late 70s knowing Reagan would be elected a year or two from then. Friedman’s point about people finally waking up to what is going on was realized in that short period of time.
46:52
I can't understand why there is no inflation now.
Is deflation then an anti-tax?
Does anyone knows in what year this speech was made?
59:30 a most important systemic principle. Same logic that keeps bad actors within Bitcoin from being malicious. It's more profitable to contribute computational power towards the mining process than it is to engage in an attack on the consensus.
Is that Peter Schiff at the 17:48 mark?
Write your reps and senators folks. Write them.
Is deflation a problem as well? It seems like it would be better. Your money would be worth more, no?
Not really.. A growing economy and GDP needs monetary growth ie a larger quantity of money in order to keep prices stable, remember money and economics is not a zero sum game, a new hit song creates a new service/good creates a new demand which must be met with society having a wee bit more money to spread around there to the artist and the artists affiliates in a sense anyway. Deflation is rare because a Government will never - somewhat understandably - sit back and not artificially raise spending (monetary stimulus). Is Deflation "better", well if you are 50+ yrs old and have a large bank account, but if you are an entrepreneur trying to make a new service or good, then no, because saving money is too attractive to those with money because it doesnt even need interest its buying power is simply growing with time.
Deflation is bad. Here’s one reason. The consumer puts off spending , because they hope prices to be even cheaper in the near future. And so there’s less consumption of goods and services, therefore businesses suffer and lay workers off. And so , now there’s a mass of unemployed, these don’t have the disposable income to consumer g+s, therefore there’s even less consumption in the economy, deflation gets worse , consumers put their spending off even more etc etc
The great depression happened precisely because of deflation. The prices will go down to a point that firms can no longer profit which leads to bankruptcy or cutting work force which then leads to unemployment and poverty. Neither inflation nor deflation are good.
The issue isn't whether inflation or deflation is better, but how rapidly the onset of either one is allowed to occur in relation to the amount of goods and services available in a particular economy. Inflation and deflation in extremes completely stall an economy because the price structure becomes unstable. In your particular case... Deflation does make your money worth more, but in a case of extreme deflation, nobody spends because they will be richer tomorrow if they hold their money today. If nobody spends, the economy stalls.
Are you seriously asking if deflation is bad?
How political correctness was born: "The way to solve things is by making politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing"
Why has inflation been so low the past decade or so?
Globalization of trade. China opening its doors to participate in world economy along with other large economies creates lower costs jurisdictions for goods (and sometimes services) that are available for wealthy western economies to import.
Exponential productivity growth is my best guess
I believe the FED manages the supply of money according to the demand of money (bank loans etc). There is also asset inflation (stocks etc), other than monetary inflation. (something along those lines)
The rate is in such way manipulated /calculated that it shows a lower number...if it would be measured the way tjey did in tze 60s 70s it would be much higher
"Low inflation" is a complete myth in 2020. The prices of several products including school tuition, medical bills, insurance, automobiles, housing, food, stocks, and so many other items and services are exponentially more expensive in dollars. The extreme rise in debt with more currency created than production causes real high inflation in 2020. Oil glut and technological progressive items like computers are the few exceptions at this time. The USA now has $30 trillion of current debt with easily over $100 trillion in future obligations. A balanced budget let alone paying off some debt would help but is clearly not politically expedient in government. Oh, and that is just Federal problems; states and cities are at least struggling with budgets at best to drowning in debt with more future debt. The majority of the world follows debt laden inflation as well often worse than the USA. In short, we have a lot of work to stop hyper inflation in reality.
So someone know the Year from this speech ?
As a Turkish citizen, these informations could save our country from the beginning. But guess who wasn't aware of these informations? Erdogan...
Employment < - Inflation - > Government Spending
When it increases, it's because of spending; when it decreases, it's because of productivity.
Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
With gold has the foundation non of this can happen. A true gold standard.
Thats why they got rid of it!
what date
1977
Brilliant, now I know that in current era of crazy Bernie this material is a hard pill to swallow !!!
Breathe slightly easier that Bernie bowed out of the presidential nomination race. That said, we still have real problems ahead with hyper inflation if government spending is not reduced to balance, let alone pay off some debt.
Well Bernie is only saying to prioritize spending, as why continue to spend almost 1 trillion a year in the military.
No body questions that spending you know.
As I understand it, the govt finances its deficit with treasury bonds. So in a sense treasury bonds are the claim on future production ,
Quantative Easing
I wish the publisher had mentioned when this lecture was delivered. By listening to the whole lecture I gathered it was delivered in 1979. Any discussion on inflation (or any economic trend) is meaningless if we cannot place it in time. Assuming this lecture was delivered in 1979, Prof Friedman was prophetic. In the following 4 years inflation did rise to double digits. But judging from 2019 vantage point, US had an average inflation rate of 2.14 percent over a period of 22 years. The constant story I read is that most world governments are struggling to get the rate up, rather than down. What could have the professor said about this long period of low inflation (and, continuing economic woes)?
He says the year at about 51:50. It's 1977
Good question. Have you found an answer?
I'm curious.
Wow. This rings true today.
Milton's rolling in his grave right now with our current fiscal deficit spending
Great video!
It's unfortunate thousands aren't watching this now.
As Friedman correctly notes, in the long run, homeowners benefit from inflation vis-a-vis long-term mortgages which effectively cheapen over time. Another important yet overlooked point many inflation critics miss is that inflation is necessary to account for market expansion. As the relative value of currency falls, people seek to spend or invest their money to avoid "depreciation", this in turn spurs economic activity. Supposing a system had little inflation or perhaps even deflation, in such a system, people would presumably seek to hold their money for as long as possible as it would be appreciating; the velocity of money would in turn slow, as would economic growth. Can anyone explain why reasonable levels of inflation i.e. 2% aren't beneficial for long term economic expansion?
47:17 LOL that is awesome.
What year is this?
Rees-Mogg for PM circa 77-78 I think. He recorded these lectures with the intention to use them for his Free To Choose program but later decided against it.
1:09:20
1:06:54
It's been clear that during the past 10 years or so the amount of money (and credit) per output as been raising as well as government spending, both in UE and Europe. Why is that we have enjoyed a period with such as low levels of inflation too?
Great question.
It's all, primarily, in asset inflation.
Most people think of inflation as only goods and services inflation. Inflation is the price of anything going up.
The typical measure of inflation reported on and which central banks use does not include the price of assets, though it used to include it.
Today we have historically high asset inflation.
We have historically high property prices in many cities.
We have an historically high stock market (notwithstanding the Covid shock).
Bond yields are at historical lows - some government bonds are even negative. Yields are driven down as the price of bonds go up.
If we included assets, inflation is running at an extremely high rate.
Many people are victims of inflation today, just as they were in the 70's - those WITHOUT assets.
Those WITH assets are the beneficiaries.
For example, from the perspective of a young person just starting their career, or low income earner trying to buy a home, the ratio between average income to average house prices has widened considerably. It is much more burdensome to buy a home today on an average salary than in the past.
The fact that we don't have goods and services inflation in the real economy indicates most of the money created from QE and fiscal stimulus since the GFC, has overwhelming settled at the very top end of society. Providing 'liquidity' to banks in the financial sector, large corporations and the general investing class have only led to historical high asset inflation. One mechanism by which this happens is via share buy backs. Companies in America have been increasing considerably their rate of share-buy backs, where the company purchases back it's own stock, driving up the price, and company managers are rewarded with performance bonuses.
Thus inequality widens in America and many other countries around the world. We can expect even further record breaking asset inflation from the Covid stimulus. Either this, or the great financial and debt bubble of the 21st century will finally reach it's limit and burst. T
The prophet
Could the Keynes model cause inlfation?
Diego Moreno yes but Keynes said inflation is caused when there is low unemployment, because in a good economy, people spend more, causing the price of goods to go up. In other words if you have high unemployment, you have low inflation because there is less consumer spending. But his theory was proven false when in the 70’s you had a period of both high unemployment and high inflation, a phenomenon known as stagflation. Friedman predicted stagflation would occur and it did.
g agreed. Id also add however that the stagflation effect was due to insanely rare circumstances and we shouldn’t expect it to happen again in the near future for all intents and purposes
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Stagflation was already very much a reality in 1977. It took hold in the aftermath of the oil crisis of 1973.
@@stevencable6317
A new era of stagflation is the very predictable outcome of the Green New Deal. Energy prices will rise, real wages will fall, nominal wages will rise, jobs will be lost as output contracts, people will lobby the Government to do something about it. Rinse and repeat. Already happening in France. The COVID crisis is another reason that could very well lead to the same. People are clamoring for free money.
Money is gold and silver. He refers too fiat currency.
Based on 38:31 it looks like a 2:50 ratio between females to male in that conference room
1:19
Only surprise matters!
Our inflation rate has been around 2% since 2004 , so isn’t that a good thing when this was produced in 1978 the inflation rate was above 8% before it ramped up then trended downwards and we’ve been around 2% for over 15 years ?
Just as relevant today in 2023 as back then, when this was recorded…Except, its not just government in this inflation, albeit indirectly. It’s been a new mistake (as MF mentioned), Country banks have raised teh quantity of money in their countries all the while satisfying teh politicians want to creating more housing for their voters. Less public housing, and more private investment housing….where did all the money come from? For Australia, Canada, NZ…America….mostly comes from banks taking in loans from short term money markets…especially in Europe where interest rates are 0 or less (neg), and/or China being productive plus money printers in the aim of keeping their currency manipulated to be attractive to all the worldwide consumers who buy their products.
All these countries with way way over priced huoses, also see their quantities of money quadruple in the last 20 years…all the same time that Europe banks low rates, China manipulate their currencies AND each of these countries (suffering inflation) have seen their governments trying to be market makers in housing.
This is trictly western, developed countries…the under developed countries will have their own unique flavour of inflation.
But 1 thing is for sure amongst the Anglo sphere..the private banks in step with their wonky politicians (who mostly have multiple housing themselves) have rightly abused their printing press (not treasury), by ways of indirectly but yet explicitly saying and confirming that their banks are “pillars of society”…meaning they will not (in their mind) and CANNOT fail. Just means inflation is here to stay…the quantity of money will rise and we WILL NEVER default…we will just print more money via teh central banks and not allow anyone to fail, nor go through the experience of having to request a saviour monetary loan from the discount window.
All bets are off for prudent management…we refuse to accept failure.
Throw in credit cards and all other kinds of derivative products to get consumer spending…then the financial wizards at these banks (fully endorsed by govts) will only ensure inflation periods will last longer. Extension of credit to purchase products will be on the decline (in number) will allow prices to go to a level that makes the govt backed money meaningless. It can never be converted by choice (with freedom)… no, todays world has changed much from MF time with this speech…there are new mistakes being made…but his rock solid fundamentals seem to be ignored….truly amazing. Some people await the second coming of Jesus….right now, we need the second coming of MF.
That’s why our currency is becoming more digital
I don't believe that people who invented that many things being creative and inventive so much they can't invent system which will satisfy all of us. Its just greediness and commonness of people.
Alternative viewpoint on the Weimar Germany point Milton is making here: they were saddled with war reparations and the productive capacity of their economy was destroyed. Aggregate demand outstripped supply thus causing hyperinflation. The idea that this was solely a monetary phenomenon isn't the only perspective.
It was brilliant, but hasn't mentioned anything about the velocity of money. Only about the quantity of money. But no matter if big quantity of money, if velocity is very small, you won't get inflation. What we living now.
The voice of the questioner at 1:10:14 sounds like Obama.