I like your analysis. Appreciate you sharing your background too. Salute for grinding it out in Finance for 20 years. Regarding Bourbon pricing. My feeling is prices will get an inflation adjustment and the big releases will go up in price. That JD 18 year will be $250 min. I just saw Jacob’s Pardon batch 3 18 year go for $170 before tax. Close to $10 per year. Bourbon is going that route or higher at msrp. 😢
@@TheReal_DeanD Hey Dean! It's been a fun 20 years 😆. Your right that the good limited edition or special releases will probably only increase in price in 2024, but I see a overall trend of decrease in other, shelf available bourbons. We'll see how it ends up in my 2025 video! Thanks again for all your comments and cheers ~
This was an awesome video David! Really interesting to hear your perspective and analysis from somebody in the finance industry with knowledge on what markers to look for to see market trends.This was a very well thought out topic and presented very well, even for people like me who aren't the brightest bulb in the bunch. Keep up the great content! Cheers buddy. - Trenton
Hey Trenton! It is an honor to have you watch and comment on my video! 😆. Like many in the WhiskeyTube world now, we enjoyed and viewed your videos and many others (ADHD whiskey, Mash & Drum, Stuff & Whiskey, just to name a few) and gave us the pathway to starting our own channels! Also, let's be honest, your tasting notes are Einstein level genius and can't be replicated! (Basketball note was my favorite!). Thank you so much for all you do for the whiskey community and giving small channels like me a blueprint on how a good whiskey channel should be done! I sincerely appreciate your view and comment as it really encourages me to keep getting better and keep working on this channel! Thank you again and cheers~
I'm with you on the "I'm tired of hunting" - not that I did much hunting myself. I am finding some great budget alternatives (to the more expensive bottles that I know I love) and have settled on a few offerings from my favorite distillers that are above average in price and not super hard to find. And if I come across the occasional "unicorn" where the price isn't too far above MSRP, I'll grab it. Yet I am finding that all that I need in whiskey is usually available at very affordable prices.
I’m the same way. When I got into a few years ago it was exciting and the chase was fun. Now, family growing, and growing old of the same allocation in state run agencies. If there’s a chance at something amazing, sure but it gets old after a while
Hey Karl! I hear you and I hear this from many of my friends that started our whiskey journey together! They got into real good single barrels (Rare Character, Nashville Barrel Company, etc.) and there are a ton of great bottles just sitting on the shelf now! I still enjoy the hunt, but I will not wait in lines or go before opening to get a bottle. Hopefully distilleries and big brands will focus on every day whiskeys in 2024 and we will have even more choices! I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
That is so true! No more waiting in line or going at opening to get a bottle 😆. With all the time and money (gas, wear and tear on the car, etc.) I save by not hunting and enjoying great whiskeys on the shelf, I feel so good~ I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
I won't make any real predictions, but collecting bourbon is a fad created by clever advertising, and fads never last long. Bourbon has become the new "Beanie Babies" for collectors. My suggestion is "Collect what you enjoy drinking."
That is absolutely true! Some are clever advertising and presentation, but some are due to demand and popularity (i.e. BTAC). I think the days of any "special release" or "limited edition" bourbons, especially new ones, flying off the shelves are over. People are waiting for reviews or prices to come down before they buy it. Of course there are some that will sell out quickly (Jack Daniel's releases, Parker's Heritage, etc.) but there will be tons that will not sell (Midwinter's night dram this year along with Gatsby Reserve 15 year). Let's hope for some price relief in 2024! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
I completely disagree, and here’s why. Bourbon isn’t a fad created by clever marketing. Quite the opposite. The bourbon boom was not in any way created by clever marketing or really any marketing. It was grassroots on Facebook, forums, and Anthony Bourdain raving about Pappy. The boom was ground up from enthusiasts re-discovering it and spreading the hobby to others, not from top down marketing efforts. Secondly, it’s substantially different than something like the beanie babies fad because that fad came about purely for the sake of collecting and hoping to resell, whereas with bourbon it started from people chasing the unicorn bottles to drink them. While it’s true it’s now in many ways become about collecting and reselling, the utility of bourbon is that it can be drunk and enjoyed, and if wine, scotch, cognac, etc. are indicators, there will ALWAYS be rich people wanting to splurge on high end liquor.
@@thomasmichael6509 hey Thomas! I agree with you the ones that got popular and allocated due to quality will always be tough to get (BTAC, etc.). But there are some that's a lot of marketing and fancy words. I'm hoping those will get exposed in 2024 while the supply of quality bottles increase so everybody can get something! More people who enjoy bourbon is always better as there will be more people to drink and share it with! 😆. Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers ~
Great discussion David. There may a reduction on some of the everyday bottles and more sales, but I do not see any of the new releases or special bottles decreasing in price. I do not see this changing as long as you have people paying $200 for Stagg, which is a $59.99 bottle. Or paying $250 for a Weller 12 Year, which is a $45 bottle. 🥃
Hey Dave! I agree with you! I think those bottles will take some time to decrease and probably won't happen in 2024. You'll be surprised how popular Stagg, EH Taylor, and Weller is in Asia. But others I do see coming down and I'm hoping to see Old Carters come down to $150 so I can just enjoy those and not have to worry about finding a Stagg or EH Taylor Barrel Proof at reasonable prices 😁. Thank you so much for always watching and commenting on my videos so soon after launch! I truly appreciate and take care my friend! Cheers~
Hey CrispyTaters! Just a bourbon loving guy making predictions for fun. Let me know your thoughts on what you think will happen in 2024! I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
I love Peerless. Bought a few bottle last summer at a store that had them on sale for $39.99. I hope we see bourbon prices fall this year, I will be buying as many bottles as I can. I think although people are venturing over to spirits such as rum, tequila and mezcal, bourbon will be the thing everyone goes back to. Great video, you gave some strong points.
I do think bourbon prices will "normalize" somewhat in 2024 as competition will increase and the money supply will decrease (high interest rates, banks not lending due to increased regulations, etc.). Hopefully the competition from other spirits will not only decrease prices, but increase quality of some bourbons as there were some bad bourbons in 2023. I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
Great video. I’m not going to stop hunting but I’ve changed my buying habits. I’m passing on most shelfers nowadays. I have moved to buying store/group picks. Plus, there are some good deals on them since most bourbon drinkers only buy Buffalo Trace products. I am going to try to get into Rye’s and grab a MaCallan 12 at some point.
Hey Victor! That is a great idea and something many of my bourbon friends are doing as well! There are some great ryes out now and since it's not as popular as bourbons, they are mostly available at retail prices without needing to hunt them down. Let's hope for a great 2024! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
Great conversation. I think distillers will continue to price LE’s at a price to combat secondary. Shelf bottles will stabilize in pricing. MSRP will not be lowered but retailers will have to discount more often and hotter to bottles in the $150-$250. Finally I think we will see more distillers down sizing to 700ml from 750ml. Thanks for the conversation
Didn't even think about the 700ml part. Remember, they are doing that as "international" bottles can only be 700ml or 1L, so that means they are preparing to ship overseas, which again, can have a negative affect on the prices here in the US. We'll see how this goes in 2024 but in the meantime, let's enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices! Thank you so much for you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch as you always do! I truly appreciate it and cheers~
Thus is one of my new favorite whiskeytube channels to watch! The vibe is spot on, I love the graphics, and it's a real inspiration for me in my whiskey journey to create content. Thank you good sir for sharing your knowledge on the subject.
Hey Mexibilly! It all starts with the first video! I was so afraid of being "perfect", I always pushed it off, but now after 50+ videos, it seems I'm starting over again everything as there is so much I learn every video! If you have any questions, you are feel to contact me (email in description of the video). Let me know your thoughts as well on what you think will happen to the bourbon market in 2024! I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
That is most likely true! I see Stagg MSRP going above $80 this year while the secondary should be below $200. Hopefully the trend of 3 batches a year will continue (or more), which will increase supply and lower prices (or more likely chance we'll find it at MSPR). But long as secondary goes down, overall prices of bourbons should go down as that was the reason liquor stores (in non-state controlled areas) were able to charge so much. And the bundles will hopefully stop (or be reasonable) as well. Let see what happens in 2024 and in the meantime, enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf for good prices! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
I stopped chasing allocated juice. So many great bottles out there. Plus alot of barrel picks $50-80 are great. Got SIB Heavens Door 2 days ago. Fantastic bottle. $65.
Hey Troy! I hear you! I hear that from so many of my friends that it seems I'm the only one always on the hunt now. And even I don't wait in line or go to Costco at 8am 😆. Barrel Picks are fantastic and there are so many new ones at good prices (Bardstown Origin Series, etc.) that I am passing on a lot of these "allocated bottles" as well. Hopefully the trend will continue and we will get Stagg at MSRP 🤣 (not going to happen in 2024... but maybe in 2025?? 😋) I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
Great content David! I think there might be a price reduction,but I see it more on the mid tier level and forget about the tier one making a change. With the price reduction on bourbon will just depend on what you're looking for and if you are able to find it at MSRP without having to pay secondary prices. This 2024 will be a change on exploring smaller or newer upcoming distilleries, tequilas, and maybe rum. For now I will enjoy what I have aquired. Cheers!
Hey Jesus! Keeping your options open to other spirits and bourbon is the best way to keep your FOMO in check and just enjoy what you can get! I try to do that, but I'll be honest, I get FOMO too much 🤣. Hopefully I'll be able to control it better in 2024! I am also looking forward to smaller distilleries in 2024 and I really hope 13th Colony, ASW, Found North, Still Austin, etc. will expand their distribution so we can get all their lineups here in California in 2024! Thank you so much for you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch as you always do! I truly appreciate it and cheers~
Hey Troy! It all has happened after I appeared in your live stream! 😆. Maybe you can use this and tell others that once they appear as a guest in your stream, they'll blow up too! Let me know if you ever need a guest on your live stream and I'll show up anytime! Let's hope for a great year of bourbon in 2024! I truly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
Hey TheAldawg77! Yes, that is true! If unemployment goes above 4.5%, interest rates don't come down as predicted, and inflation is still above 3%, all prices will come down significantly! But if unemployment stays at 3.8% or below, rates come down, and inflation is below 2%....watch out!! Bourbon prices will be back to 2022 levels! We'll see how it goes in 2024. Let's hope for the best! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
I 100% agree that the Bourbon world has changed and price will go down. Most people I know are sick of hunting, basically if I run across an allocated bottle Ill buy it, but Im not out there actively looking for it... I also notice on my Bourbon groups online, no one is impressed with peoples museum collections, in fact you just look like a jerk having huge numbers of allocated bottles but not drinking them. I am also seeing a lot of bottles that used to be hard to find readily available. Not to mention Inflation is hurting a lot of people, and they cannot afford these expensive Bourbons like they used to. I agree I am expanding into other Spirits esp Rum. And when if comes to Bourbon I am now much more interested in finding new and different bottles from smaller distilleries than just the big boys. They are just fun and interesting to explore. The Bourbon craze was something amazing, esp during COVID, but I think its time has passed, hope the industry enjoyed this time, all good things come to an end... Just ask Vodka about the 90s
Hey Keith! Times are changing rapidly and COVID was a catalyst for much of it, especially in the bourbon industry. And it seems the post-COVID world is doing it again. Whiskey does take some time to distill and age to get it right and compete with the big boys (6 to 10 years), but hopefully they had time now to put out some good whiskeys in 2024 so there will be more interesting and fun bourbons to drink! I really look forward to what 13th Colony, ASW, Redwood Empire, Bardstown, and New Riff will do in 2024 as this gives them an extra year to put out some good whiskeys! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
My local tw had the storyteller batch for $120 last week. I find the actual msrp to be a little high but the extra $20-$30 was enough to turn me away. I can get a knob creek 120 proof store pick with more age for half the price.
I will say you will find a Booker's for less than $100 in 2024! I'm sure of it! 2023 batches in California weren't "flying" off the shelves like they did in 2022 and I'm sure it'll even be slower in 2024. So that means more supply should be available in other states and hopefully in your area! Let me know if you ever find a Booker's at less than $100 in 2024! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
Great video and I think you're right on what will and won't decrease in 2024. I will tell you that I am right in middle TN and all of the low to mid level Buffalo Trace stuff (even Stagg) is becoming more and more available in the past several months along with several other brands in that range. I went out hunting for it and required some luck, but i nailed down 4 bottles of Stagg here and 1 in FL for retail. So hopefully that's an indicator that companies are looking to stock in the US and not go overseas. That seems to be in line with BT's large production investment. But like you, I think we're at least another 4-5 years from seeing those elite and LE bottles come down in price or scarcity.
Hey Jon! I agree with you that Middle tier Buffalo Trace is more abundant! I see more EH Taylor Single Barrels and Straight Ryes in the past 3 months than I see 2 years before that! Same thing with Stagg and Eagle Rares. I think people are underestimating the domino effect of these bottles decreasing in price or being more available as it will make other bottles not as desirable or sit on the shelves. Let's hope both of us are right and prices "normalize" in 2024! (of course this means we'll be wrong and Stagg will go up to $400 😂). I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank I think you're exactly on point! I was talking this over with friends from Tampa Bay whiskey society and you nailed most of the points I saw. Will keep watching now that I know where you are here!
Hey David. Like you said in the video. Prices on certain bottles have already come down in the second half of 2023. I dont see any circumstance where the economy drastically improves in 2024 therefore I am sure prices will continue to come down. Now will they go down to what they were two or three years ago. I don’t think so, but with people have less discretionary income, supply will go up and prices will come down. I see this most likely happening in the bottles that arent made by buffalo trace, which is a good thing for people like us who appreciate a good four roses, old forester, knob creek etc etc.
Hey Glen! I absolutely agree with you! I think the $200 price range is in trouble (Knob Creek 18, Hardin's Creek Series, Wild Turkey Master's Keep, etc.) as the Buffalo Trace (Stagg, Weller, EHT's, etc.) are all coming down below that price point. I also don't see economy getting better in 2024 (might not get worse, but not better) so it'll be very interesting to see what happens. Let's all hope for the best and we all can get Stagg at MSRP 😂 (J/K, won't happen... in 2024). Thank you so much for you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch as you always do! I truly appreciate it and cheers~
I went into a small liquor store today who had the same five bottles of stagg for $250 that they had a few months ago. So the bottles might not drop to msrp but they may creep down a little bit from where they are right now.
@@GLENBECKHAM Creeping down is the start. Let's see what happens when they are still on the shelf and 24A, 24B, etc. comes out. Hopefully they'll be incentivized to lower it to $200 or even $150 to move it 😆. We can all hope 😂.
I bought a bottle of Murray Hill for 100. It is like you said excellent. I don't know if bourbon prices will drop this year. Demand is still there. But hopefully it slows down a bit as you said.
Hey Sean! Of course many of the factors I presented really depends on your location. If your in a big city or a large populated area (like I am in Southern California), it's going to be different than a lower populated areas in the US, as just the economics are different. Not all prices will drop this year. I think good bottles like Rare Breed, Knob Creek 12, Jack Daniel's Barrel Proof, etc. will actually go up slightly. But you will see good bottles go down in price. I believe, even though they produce good whiskeys, Barrell Bourbons will come down to ~$70 from their current price of ~$90 in my area. I already see Seagrass and Dovetail come down to ~$80. But we'll see what actually happens in 2024! If I could predict the future, I won't be doing this channel and be on an island drinking BTAC all day! 🤣. I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
@WhiskeyBank you and I need to take a road trip away from SoCal to one of the lower states to hunt down some of these bottles lol. I enjoy your channel content. Thanks for the explanation.
I think if prices continue to keep going north, I will cut back and have a smaller selection However, unless the economy really takes a dump, I don’t foresee prices really dropping other than the secondary market coming down a little little bit. 😎🥃
Hey Michael! Even if the secondary market comes down a little bit, it'll have a huge impact on retail prices. For example, if Stagg continues to be at $200 or below on secondary, that would be a huge problem for Knob Creek 18, Hardin's Creek Series, Old Carter and Four Gate (and others in the price range) as people will just buy the Stagg instead in many cases. So those prices come down. So then the $150 bottles will go down, etc. Imagine if Stagg was $150, who buys a Four Gate at $225? Not many. So it's a domino effect. And that's just Stagg, imagine if Weller Full Proof and others come down below $200. But again, we'll see how it goes as its so early in the year~ Let's hope for the best! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch as you always do! Thanks a ton and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBankI want to know where everyone keeps finding Stagg at that price 😂. You’re so full of it. Haven’t seen a bottle online for less than $300 all year and can’t get it at any of the local stores
@@mattk7903 Obviously prices of bottles will differ from location to location. But here in Southern California, the going rate for Stagg is $200. A little higher for more popular batches. I can go to 2 or 3 liquor stores within 10 minutes from my house and buy Stagg right now for $200. Southern California is different due to it's large population, but also the diverse population. Many people who drink a ton don't even know what a George T Stagg is😆. They drink wines, vodka, tequila, soju, sake, etc. So this area gets a ton of distribution of everything, including bourbons. But I will say, if it's happening here, I hope it happens to your area soon.
Hey Ryan! Thank you for spending your precious time watching my video! I'm glad you enjoyed this one and hopefully there will be others you enjoy as well! Let me know if there is any subject you want to see in my videos. I greatly appreciate your view and comment! Thank you again and cheers~
I think the limited releases and super allocated bottles will remain high for a few more years because there's always someone ready to pay for the opportunity to say, "I own that bottle" I believe you're right, an abundance of alternative products (i.e. tequila) and bourbon will drive down the cost of more shelf ready bottles. Probably around 10 to 25 percent. Great video as always! Cheers! 🥃
I agree with you as good whiskey takes time to make (10, 15, or even 20+ years) so the small distilleries can't just take short cuts to compete with the BTAC or even Parker's Heritage or Jack Daniel's Special Releases. So those will take some time to come down, but bottles on the shelf coming down in price will be a nice start 😁. I greatly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
After a little over a year of bourbon hunting and drinking, I’m getting into tequila. All the high end tequila, minus Fortaleza, are on the shelf for under $60. I’m sticking to the brands you mentioned. Redwood Empire is delicious and on the shelf. Jack Daniels SBBP is on the shelf and $55 or under. Barrel products on the shelf at the higher end at $80. That’s my upper limit, but I like them.
This seems to be the road many of my friends are taking in 2024. Hopefully this will get the attention of distilleries but mainly distributors and liquor stores so they don't jack up the price for these allocated bottles! Let's hope for a exciting and fun year of bourbon in 2024! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
The spirit I've found myself gravitating to outside of bourbon is armagnac. The older cousin to cognac, its lack of export (not being near a port in the south of France) has kept it relatively underappreciated and you can get ridiculous vintages for stupid low prices, at least compared to what said vintages would cost you in scotch, bourbon, cognac, etc. It's also pretty close to bourbon in experience, both certain flavor notes and mouthfeel.
Hey Dylan! Never tried an Armagnac, but I have heard you can get 30 year old Armagnac at crazy good prices so maybe it's worth a shot 😆. I will need to do some research on it as it does sound interesting when I do a simple Google search. Thank you for the suggestion! I truly appreciate your view and comment! Have a great evening and cheers~
Thank you for sharing your opinion about the bourbon price prediction. I agree to your opinion. that there will be 2 separated price trend in 2024. The high-end bourbon product such as STEG/Russels' 13yo etc. would keep popular in the market meanwhile middle-low graded products will come down due to increased demand of world wide bourbon market such asia and europe.
I agree with you that the super high-end and allocated bourbons will probably not decrease (or even increase) in prices in 2024 as demand is increasing in the US and worldwide. The middle tier bourbons will have a hard time keeping the prices high due to so much competition and will most likely come down to sell. It'll be very interesting to see what happens in 2024, but only time will tell! Let's just enjoy some great whiskeys in 2024 😆. I truly appreciate your view and comment! Thank you so much and cheers~
I think you need the glut before the competition. Consider that distributors are acting as gatekeepers and keep the market artificially high. I predict there will be occasional price slashing (like that peerless you showed) to move inventory, but prices will more or less stabilize where they are. The only thing I think we'll see is the introduction of more cheap whiskey to add some new variety to the bottom shelf. Stuff like Benchmark and canned cocktails, but coming from craft distilleries in a desperate attempt to stay afloat. Liquor stores will struggle to move higher end stock and will be at the mercy of distributors. Control states will continue to try to maximize profits. I think you're spot on that BTAC and similar will still command high prices. But that'll be it. You're going to see the aftermarket flooded with people trying to clear personal inventory. I just saw someone offer 25 bottles at a combined retail value of well over secondary for WLW and get a polite no.
Hey Anthony! You could be right and it really depends on the area or State you live in. For me, living in a large populated area (Southern California), we get a lot of distribution of allocated bourbon due to the fact we sell so much for other spirits & wine. It's due to the large population, but also the fact that it is so diverse with many people that don't even know what a George T Stagg is (I was one of them until 2016 or so). Many other places in the US doesn't have that luxury and bourbon is all they sell, which doesn't help with distribution. Let's see what happens in 2024 as I'm sure I'll be wrong 😂. If I could correctly predict the future, I wouldn't be making UA-cam videos, but instead be drinking GTS on an island somewhere 🤣. This was just my thoughts and simple analysis of the bourbon industry. I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
Great video David! Your analysis seems on point. There's so much potential for international growth that it can easily swallow up any sag in domestic demand. But doesn't that facet just mainly affect the large distillers? As i understand it, the crafts and even midsize distillers are frozen out of scalable export sales due to export/tariff/connection hurdles. I agree the true unicorns will probably tend to stay firm or increase in price and the distillers will continue to raise MSRP on those to claw back the rent seeking behavior of the secondary. The rest of the $100-250 upper-mid tier price will have a reckoning at some point hopefully. I've only ventured into that range twice when I've had the chance to buy unicorn-ish collector bottles at MSRP. But for actual drinking, i just don't understand the demand when there are so many exceptional bottles around in the $70-100 tier.
Hey Jay! You'll be surprised on what bottles I saw in Korea. Sagamore Ryes, James E Pepper, Yellowstone, Whistle Pig, along with the big distilleries. Distributors already have a channel with exporting and if the distilleries can do the marketing to create demand, I don't think it would be all that difficult (but probably costly at first with the setup expense) to start exporting to countries with demand. If the distributors and retail stores in the country can make money (and the country also collect taxes 🤣), it can happen quickly. I'm hoping the good bourbons in the $200+ range does come down. I love my Old Carters and Four Gates, but I can't spend $200+ a bottle often so I have to be very picky in what I buy so most of the time, I just don't buy them 😆. Let's just for a fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
I'll be honest, I am very surprised this video is doing this well! So much pressure on my next video 😆. Just kidding, I'll keep doing what I'm doing and hopefully it'll be fun. Let's hope for a great and fun year of bourbons in 2024 and let's enjoy it together! I truly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
I thought the opposite was more likely, that prices will increase. I’ve heard that supplies of properly seasoned oak for barrels is dwindling. If this is true, there will be cost pressures for new barrels. American whisky companies may explore malts and other whiskies that permit used barrels. Separately, are grain prices stabilized? What is the expected price outlook for corn?
Hey Jello! 🤣. American Oak trees are one of the fastest growing trees in the world and the fact they are aware of it now with years of supply left, I'm hoping it doesn't become an issue. Also the slow down in housing and other construction will decrease the use of lumber (might not directly affect American Oak, but lumber yards might plant more American Oak to supplement if needed). Grain/Corn prices will be a factor, but bulk of the distilleries' expense is actually room the whiskey aging process (storage, maintenance, damage, etc.). Unless Grain prices go up by 300% or more for a prolonged period of time (which is unlikely with so much corn production in the US), it should be fine. Only time will tell and there certainly can be unforeseen events that occur to change prices. But in the meantime, let's sit back, relax, and drink some good bourbons on the shelf! Let's hope for a great year of bourbon in 2024! I truly appreciate your view and comment! Thank you so much and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank thanks for writing back. Perhaps I did not capture the oak issue cleanly. While the wood and trees plentiful and replace easily, it is my understanding that the wood needs to season a couple years before it can be used to make barrels. The problem that I have heard (take it with a grain of salt) is the stocks of the seasoned wood are diminishing much faster than is being replaced, due largely to the explosion in bourbon and rye popularity in recent years. This would be a temporary problem, if true, but would have a bottleneck effect for a few years. That would put pressure on the supply of bourbons and ryes.
Good video. Well thought out defenses on your theories. I’ve been a big fan of store barrel picks lately to avoid paying secondary for good bourbon. In my area, believe it or not, barrel picks of reputable brands from Meijer have not disappointed
I believe you! Some of the best picks here has been from Vons (Safeway umbrella) and Total Wine & More (big liquor store chain). It seems since they do probably sell the most bottles, distributors and/or distilleries are giving them some great barrels to choose from so they can't miss! Single Barrels are a great way to get some great bourbon without paying secondary for allocated bottles! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
Thank you for the video, David. I started this journey primarily with Scotches and rum, and over the last 2.5 years, I ventured to American Whiskey/Bourbon. My experience is that the bourbon market is growing, a lot of options out there, but many people are hunting the same bottles, that in some cases are just Ok for the high price they are demanding ($60-$80 for a 4-6 year spirit); compared to Scotch that you can get 10-14 years, depending on the brand. I also see many brands outsourcing their juice from MGP and others a like, and asking high prices for young spirits. So for now, I am looking at rum and maybe Mezcal/Tequilas.
Hey Carlos! The economics of bourbon and scotch is slightly different. With warmer temperatures and new charred barrels used for bourbon, they age faster and lose a lot of whiskey to "angels share" (or evaporation) compared to scotch whisky. That being said, there are probably great values in single malts and scotch due to so many distilleries and world wide production. I think rum and tequila is also a nice place to look as it will further develop your palate and you'll get more tasting notes when you come back to bourbon. Let me know what your favorite scotch is! Thanks a ton for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers ~
@@WhiskeyBank The scotch that got me into the journey was Glenmorangie and their Private Edition releases. I was able to get a hold of a few of them and I was very pleased with their range of flavors. Their core range is very solid, especially a few years ago when I could get the Glenmorangie 18 for about $100.00.
Hey Steve! I don't see too much drop off in any bourbons or whiskeys below the $60 price point and any of the major brands "signature" lineups. But I do see some coming down if they are above $60. I'm sure Knob Creek 18 (if there is a batch 3 in 2024) will be closer to $150 than the $200 price tag this year, etc. Of course this will differ greatly depending on location. But let's just drink some good whiskeys and see what happens in 2024! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
Mmmmmmm. Maybe. There may be some price roll backs, but not in a major way. For example, I saw McKenna 10 BiB at TW in HB for $55; down from highs of over $65, which is good. I hope that prices on the "limited releases" come down, but I'm not confident that will happen, at least not in 2024.
Thank you, for your insight. My gut tells me that we are still in the bourbon boom and that prices won’t drop. Sure, secondary prices will drop a little, but their are too many craft distilleries flooding the market and coming in at the $50-80 range off the bat without a proven track record to make brands in the same range come down in price. I say availability gets better, but prices stay the same this year. Just my opinion of course. Great video and I hope you are right.
Of course you could be right and me be wrong! If I was so good at predicting the future, I would have made a ton of money doing something else and not making UA-cam videos 🤣. It seems many people have "stockpiled" a lot of whiskeys and are now being real careful and picky on their next bottles. And with a influx of whiskeys expected in the $50 to $100 range, "retail" prices should come down as shelf space in retail stores are not "unlimited" and inventory will need to be cleared. But only time will tell! Let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
I meet more and more people that are just getting started in hunting whiskey. I see demand going up and prices to match. Distillers see what secondary is and want that money for themselves. I'm likely going to do less hunting for allocated and just enter raffles and buy stuff thats easy to get and taste great. If I come across something allocated at a good price I'll get it.
Even though there seems to be more entering the market, there are also a lot of people like you that are "leaving" the hunting market. And those "silent" leavers are certainly less noticeable than the people who enter the market going place to place and just trying to buy everything. But as I said in the video, prices of the most in-demand bottles will probably not decrease (BTAC, Pappy, most of Buffalo Trace in general, crazy special releases), but "overall" the prices should come down. Old Elk is a good example in my area as some of those (double wheat, four grain, etc.) that were over $100 each are now on sale for $50 and still not selling. I don't see brands like Nulu keeping their prices at over $100 and hoping to sell out when there is so much good whiskeys for $60 now. We'll see what happens in 2024, but let's enjoy some good bourbons while we wait and see! I greatly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
Hey Mark! That is for sure~ Gatsby Reserve 15 year is sitting on the shelf this year when it sold out within seconds last year. Same thing with Single Barrels like Old Forester Single Barrel Barrel Proofs or even Four Roses Barrel Strength picks; they are just sitting on the shelves now when they sold out within minutes last year! There is hope! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
@WhiskeyBank Funny you mentioned those 2. They have both evaded me forever and I still don't see them. The OFSBBS has been on my pickup list for a couple years and I've yet to find one. Wife and I did a few distillery visits last weekend and I was finally able to get a 4 roses as well as the Peerless DO rye which is AMAZING 😂
@@mlinder2000 southern California is spoiled with our bourbon distribution 😆. But if it's happening here, it'll start to be distributed elsewhere, which means more for everyone. I'm sure you'll get one of each in 2024! Let's go!!
Hey Sean! You can use my videos anyway you want and it would be an honor as you have many more "members" than I do 😆. What you do think will happen to bourbon prices in 2024? I truly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos and all you do for this wonderful whiskey community! Thank you so much and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank I believe you are spot on in your assessment! The highly sought after will still be chased and some of the “special” releases will drop. I love the aspect in figuring in foreign markets if production needs to create demands in other ways. Very informative and well done my friend! 🥃
You forgot to mention that Buffalo Trace has increased production exponentially, and they did it years ago so we are now starting to see increased supply. Stores that used to have one high end display case now have two or three plus more on the shelf behind the counter. It is just a matter of time till these "stores" decide they aren't making money collecting bourbon, they need to actually sell it to make a profit and we ( the vast majority) won't spend up like that any longer.
Hey CJ! That is very true! We are now seeing 3 batches of Stagg per year instead of two, which will further increase supply (and hopefully decrease prices or increase our chances of finding it at MSRP!). Buffalo Trace sells to distributors, so they got nothing to lose as they will buy them up! It's the liquor stores that will lose out if they just sit on shelves. I'm seeing more and more liquor stores lowering their prices on super premium bourbons as they need that money. Let's hope the trend continues in 2024 with more production from Buffalo Trace (and other great distilleries!) 😆. Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
I think we're moving into a period where most people's curiosity for certain products will be a thing of the past. I think that factor alone hits the secondary market hard.
Hey David! I agree, the 2nd and 3rd tier secondary items are already either decreasing in price or just not showing up on secondary markets anymore. It's probably a combination of increased supply & increase in MSRP on those of these bottles where there is little to no margin for the "flippers" anymore. It's very increasing on how the first two months of 2024 as been and it'll be fun to see how the rest of 2024 will turn out. Let's just enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf while we sit back and find out! 😆 Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
For me, I think secondary market pricing is going to go down or stay at the same prices. In my area, though bourbon pricing will be the same and I agree that the special bottles will have a larger price tag. The distilleries have seen that there is want for the expensive bottles, so they’re going to keep that pricing accordingly. I bet the next Rickhouse release from Russell’s will be $350 MSRP.
Hey Dean! If Wild Turkey keeps making the Single Rickhouse the best bourbon of the year (better than BTAC from many WhiskeyTubers in 2023), people will buy at $350. It's the world we live in now. BUT if it isn't that high of quality, it will sit on the shelves. So it really depends on the quality. I think you'll see a combination of high priced and lower priced whiskeys from the big distilleries to "squeeze" out the small ones. But only time will tell and let's enjoy the bourbons we have and lay back and watch the fireworks! 🤣. Thanks again for everything and cheers~
This is a very interesting topic. I hope the prices fall about 20-25%…. But I think the market , as a whole, isn’t ready to pop. So while some prices will fall, I’m not sure the hard to acquire bottles will drop. Some distilleries like Wild Turkey have to increase their prices so that they don’t become allocated because they have not increased their overall production. But distilleries like Buffalo Trace can’t truly raise their prices as they have expanded their production and have more of a surplus. This is what I heard from a guy in the whiskey business. It makes sense, but is still only one small slice of the pie to look at. So many factors play into prices… hopefully things move towards a more consumer friendly price. Great video David! Absolutely love what you are doing! Cheers my friend! 🥃
Hey Vic! It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2024. 2023 was a fun year and we'll probably see more special releases and limited edition bottles from all distilleries this year. Let's just enjoy the whiskeys we have and relax, lay back, and see what unfolds. Thanks as always for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers my friend!
I agree with you that overall prices will come down. But also the offerings in that $60-$120 range will increase in quality. So IMHO, that will also have a negative effect on the super high end stuff that you think might maintain their premium pricing. You no longer have to spend big bucks to get a super high end experience. Case in point is Old Carter. One of the best out there but as you rightly point out, they're probably at the saturation point price wise especially with other options. I won't buy it at their current price as I have too many other options at a lower price. And you pallet varies from day to day so why risk that much money for something that varies from day to day. Fun to speculate, that's for sure.
Hey Bradley! I agree and hope that this happens! I even forgot to mention Rare Character Exceptional series at around the same price point (~$200) that's producing great stuff! It'll take just one of those premium brands to lower their price to $150 to start a pricing war. And like you said, maybe even Barrell bourbon or others in the ~$100 range will increase quality to compete with them, which would be fun! Let's hope for a fun and exciting bourbons in 2024! I truly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
Good video. I don't think the prices will crash but slowly increase. The allocated bottles will be more rare but with the options, the unpopular bottles might be sitting on the shelves for a while. I'm predicting it's gonna be another banger of a year for bourbon.
Hey Danny! You are most likely right, but remember, retailers can't have whiskey just sitting on shelves! They don't have unlimited shelf space and if they don't sell, they will reduce prices to sell them. You're seeing that with Old Elk right now. Double Wheat, which sold for over $100 when it came out is now ~$60 is many stores. It might not happen in January or February of 2024, but I see it happening closer to summer time. But then again, if I was correct all the time, I would be rich from the stock market and not making UA-cam Videos 🤣. Let's see what happens in 2024 and enjoy good whiskeys at good prices in the meantime! Thank you so much for you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch as you always do! I truly appreciate it and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank Yup, I think that'll be for certain bottles. Old Elk is one I want to try but I never hear anything good on it haha. Same with Whistlepig. With all these options, I can't get everything.
Yo~ If you do, I'll join the live as it'll be a fun subject to cover! I had so much to talk about, but cut it all out as it was just details that's not good for a video format but would be fun in a live format. Let me know what you think will happen in 2024! I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch as you always do! Thanks a million and cheers~
Interesting analysis and predictions, David. I agree that limited releases will probably retain their high prices and most likely go higher due to the ever-increasing demand - look at Japanese Whisky for example. However, I predict (and no analysis done on my end whatsoever) that bourbon prices will not drop, but simply stagnate, i.e. they will level off. I also predict that large distillers will streamline their offerings, with a focus on their core product line, and likely discontinue some of the lesser performing offerings. I also foresee that certain smaller craft distillers may close down or be acquired - look at the craft beer industry. This might be an interesting project idea for a simulation analysis🤓😉 Cheers!
Hey Rene! You bring up some great points! I certainly see smaller distilleries being purchased by bigger brands (Fred Minnick mentioned Coors is probably going to purchase one, didn't know which one). Japanese whiskeys are a great example of prices not declining and let's hope it doesn't go that route 😂. Only time will tell what will actually happen so let's hope for some fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024! I truly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
Hey Dave! Same here and I'm not even asking for the allocated stuff but just the everyday stuff like Old Forester 1920 or Rare Breed. If they decrease by like $5 or $10, that will mean everything else in that price range will need to do so as well. Let's see what happens in 2024! Thank you so much for you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch as you always do! I truly appreciate it and cheers~
Hey Josh! I agree and those will probably not come down anytime soon as it is hard for smaller distilleries to put out 10 or 15 year old whiskeys as that takes... 10 to 15 years to make 😆. So I don't believe the Pappy 15, GTS, WLW, etc. will come down anytime soon. But others... maybe... probably... hopefully? 🤣. Let's see what happens in 2024 and in the meantime, let's enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
Here in Texas I can walk into any small liquor store and find practically any bottle I’d want(except pappy). But everything is at secondary, so why hunt? I’m over over paying.
Hey John! 🤣. That's how it is here in California as well most of the time. It does take a lot of time and effort to try to find these bottles at reasonable prices, but I like to hunt so it's worth it for me 😆. Let's just hope we all can find these great bottles at MSRP soon! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
Good bourbon is bourbon you can actually find without getting price gouged. Which doesn't say much for most of these labels that come to mind. In my opinion bourbon is meant to be opened and enjoyed, best with friends. Seeing if you pick up the same notes and tastes or if you all are picking up completely different smells from the same bottle!
That is so true!! It's so much more fun and the whiskey is always better with friends! Unfortunately, some don't thing so, but it's ok. Let us enjoy it and have fun while they spend their money on allocated bottles! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
Thanks for the reply! The little group I am a part of, we're working class people. We can't afford to chase down every new hot thing and we dislike our regular favorites being swiped off the shelves by taters before we can get to the store. We're trying more store picks now since as I said before, it is bourbon we can actually find. You still take a chance on store picks but it's good to support the local stores that do it. Thanks again! @@WhiskeyBank
The top heap bourbons probably won’t drop much. Middle tier bourbons like a knob creek 9 or Elijah Craig barrel proof, you could see them going down. Here in PA I have seen some prices go down in the last 6 months but we have state stores so the markups are higher. But if cost of grains goes up, the prices could go up.
The price of grain going is a very very small portion of a bottle of bourbon. Grain prices doubling would only add a few more cents per bottle. We grow so much corn it's used inefficiently for fuel.
Hey Mike! I agree top tier bourbons won't go down much as there is still too much demand and not enough supply. I still haven't been able to get a bottle of GTS or WLW so I'm the problem with that one 🤣. I think prices will have to come down to compete with all these smaller distilleries and brands coming in hot at $100 or less. But if margins get too thin, it'll be bad as the small ones will not survive long enough to produce great whiskeys to compete with the GTS and WLW. Let's see what happens in 2024! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
Interesting. That does make a lot of sense as most of their expense if actually coming from the barrels and the aging process (storage, maintenance, etc.). Thank you for the information!
You’re definitely seeing prices coming down on the secondary market. So many new bourbons coming to the market that are in some cases better then a lot of these special releases makes choosing what to buy a little more interesting.
Hey Warren! Let's hope the trend of new GOOD bourbons will continue in 2024 with distilleries that did great in 2023 do better in 2024! I'm looking forward to great releases from ASW, 13th Colony, Redwood Empire, Bardstown, Still Austin, etc.! If they start doing some fantastic stuff, maybe I'll stop hunting all together! (probably not, but just saying 🤣). Let's look forward to a fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
Hey Darrell! That seems to be a good trend among my friends as well and another reason some bourbon prices will likely fall (not all, but some). Let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon to bring back the people in 2024! I truly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
From your lips the distributors and liquor stores. MSRP on so many of these bottles are reasonable IMO. But the limited supply to stores forces owners to price gouge. Took me a year to find Blantons at MsRP and that was through a raffle. My point I guess it prices are one thing but it’s also distribution and the games that are played. Maybe popularity of other spirits could help push some change but I doubt people will start collecting Tequilas to start sipping neat. We shall see!
Hey Keith! I agree with you it's not just stores but distributors that play the game that has increased prices!! I couldn't fit all that into the video as people don't like 40 minute videos 🤣. But if the secondary prices are coming down (especially for tier 2 or 3 bourbons like midwinter's night dram or Hardin's Creek items), that means the "flippers" will stop buying those, which in turn, will keep many bottles on the shelf. It might not be there forever, but it might last a couple weeks before selling. Another example is the 2023 Gatsby Reserve 15 year, since there is no "secondary market" for it as flippers can't flip it for profit, it is just sitting on shelves so far. But as I mentioned, the best or tier 1 stuff will probably not decrease in 2024 due to demand in the US and internationally. You'll be surprised how popular BTAC and Pappy's are in Asia. I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
I hope I'm right as well as if the prices keep going up, there is no way I will be able to afford this hobby 😆. I greatly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
I've watched the bourbon bubble grow since at least 2010. Distilleries have now had plenty of time to expand. Increased supply and reduced demand will cause the bubble to pop, the same way every other bubble does. The major distilleries know it will eventually happen; that's why there have only been modest price increases of the regular expressions while the prices of LE releases are skyrocketing. Compari/Wild Turkey doesn't want to upset the WT101 buyer, but they know the guys buying the LE stuff will pay dearly and are now pricing it accordingly. BTW, Blanton's was created as an export bourbon back in the '80s in an effort to expand the foreign market when there was then a glut of aged bourbon because Vodka had taken over the spirits market. The foreign market still prefers Scotch, lol. The Blanton's, Rock Hill Farms, ETL, and Hancock Reserve brands are actually owned by Age International which is a subsidiary of a Japanese firm called Takara Shuzo Co.; all are produced under agreement by Sazerac/BT. It's an interesting story and might be worthy of a video.
That is very interesting and did not know about the "brands" being owned by Age International. I will need to look into that. Distilleries are smart and they didn't become this huge corporation without business savvy and knowledge. Distilleries like Wild Turkey has the bourbon and the funds to "squeeze out" smaller distilleries by keeping WT101 at $20 while dominating the premium market as well. Only time will tell what will happen to the bourbon industry and its prices in 2024! Let's just hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024! 😆 Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
Sometimes you got to do what you got to do! 😆. Everybody's "value" of money and a bottle is different and if it was worth it to you to have and enjoy, then it is money well spent! Hopefully the pour matches the price you paid and you enjoy every single drop of that beautiful whiskey that is Springbank 10 Palo Cortada (I never had it, so I would never know 😂). I truly appreciate your view and comment! Thank you so much and cheers~
Bourbon prices are going to go up and secondary will go down a little. Whatever is going on with this tariff overseas will have an impact as well.either we see higher volume here or they just jack the prices up more
I agree with that. MSRP on many bottles will go up (Stagg, Weller, etc.) but secondary should still come down. Hopefully with the gap decreasing, flippers will be less incentivized to buy them, leaving more for us drinkers. Overseas are hard to predict but bourbon is catching on in Asia for sure. Let's see what happens in 2024 but in the meantime, enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
I’m getting tired of hunting too. More specifically waiting in line at bourbon drops. Came across 4 staggs the other day for $150. Didn’t buy them but I’ve waited in line for hours for stagg at $100. I would rather just pay an extra $50 and not waste a weekend morning, especially if I start seeing stagg at $150 regularly
I agree. The time and money (gas, wear and tear on the car, etc.) you save by not hunting, it'll actually be "cheaper" to buy at $150 rather than $100, especially as we get older and the toll it takes on the body (and mind). And weekend mornings are so precious time we can be spending with family that it is sometimes not worth it anymore. Let's hope prices will come down enough where we can all enjoy our weekend mornings with family and shop for bourbons later! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
Hmm, here in Europe I can find most of the regular shelfers already. I am bourbon fan, but actually pretty rare here, as we are close to Scotland. What shocked me, when looking on a map of cities in Kentucky, where bourbon is produced, how many more new rickhouses are under construction.... It is a lot... As there was everything bubble with cheap loans and helicopter money during covid, of course it happened with bourbon too. It is called bullwhip effect, as we basically had a situation, when excess (unearned I say) load of basically free cash was chasing limited amount of goods, prices went up for everything. The point is that this bunch of money is drying up, or already dried up. But the businesses meanwhile invested like crazy, as they got false reading that there is endless demand for the product... As mountain biker I heard recently, that in EU there is huge stockpile of unsold bikes caused exactly by what I described above. Some companies, I heard, plan to completely skip model year 2024 in effort to sell this stockpile... I would be surprised if this does not happen to bourbon too. Of course, not LE and such a stuff....
That is a great insight and a true statement. Working in the financial industry, the increase in interest rate combined with banks struggling to keep deposits, lending has slowed down significantly, which will slow down the economy. The price & demand increase from 2021 to 2023 was too rapid to keep on going, but like you said, companies invested like it would. We'll see how it goes in 2024, but let's hope for some great bourbons at good prices! 🤣 Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
Thank you! What are your thoughts on bourbon prices? Do you like they will increase or decrease? Super appreciate your view and comment! Thanks again and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank I think they will dip some this year but the change I am seeing in my area over the last couple months is availability improving. I think 2024 will be more of an improvement of availability and prices will start to fall in Q3 and 4.
Enjoyed the video, didn't know Americans drank Bourdon straight as much as you say. As a Scotsman I mainly drink our whisky, maybe I'll try more American Bourbon just not that expensive.
Hey Lain! There are great bourbons you can hopefully get without spending too much money! Knob Creek 12, Wild Turkey Rare Breed, Jack Daniel's Barrel Proof whiskey, and many others! If you do try some American Bourbon or whiskey, let me know how you like it! I truly appreciate your view and comment! Thank you so much and cheers~
I think every major distillery is going to have an expression with an MSRP over $200, an expression between $100 and $150, and SKUs working down the price tree from there, simply because whiskey is now a common gift and people want to buy a single bottle as a gift, not a set of bottles adding up to a predicted value. I also think that anything produced in real bulk will struggle to sell above $85, so there will be downward pressure on prices for expressions with broad distribution. I expect to see distinct price drops on Kentucky Owl, Rabbit Hole, and Barrell, among others. Some smaller operations are going to see real strain because the market is already flooded with 4-year craft product in the $50-$75 range and consumers are going to revert back to heritage bottles that deliver more value. I feel real sympathy for any company looking to launch a new brand in 2024; their timing is not good.
Hey Michael! Great observation and insight into pricing! I agree with you every major distillery will have "special release" or "limited edition" bottles above the $150 with beautiful bottle design and a good story (i.e. Wild Turkey Generations). As long as the quality matches the price increase (i.e. Jack Daniel's special releases, Makers Mark Cellar Aged, etc.), I believe this is a good thing for Bourbons in general as long as the supply is good enough to not inflate the secondary market (basically, make it not worth it for flippers to buy and sell for profit). I also agree with you on the craft distillery with 4 to 5 year expressions at $50 to $100 range. For instance, Redwood Empire, even though it is good whiskeys, the price point has made it where I don't want to pick up their bottled in bond expressions anymore. It is 5 year old Bottled in Bond whiskeys at ~$90 a bottle, which makes it a hard decision to buy. Hopefully there will be a good balance between price and quality in 2024 and we will be able to enjoy some good whiskeys at good prices! 😆. I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
I think prices will come down and more allocated items will start sitting on shelves. I am tired of hunting and rather buy less and just spend more online for the bottles I want. Rewards programs only benefit those stores and i rather just not build those relationships.
Hey Brian! I feel you and so do so many of my friends who have started doing the same thing! The money they save in not hunting (time, gas, wear and tear on car, buying bottles just to please the owner, etc.) was enough to pay a little extra for the bottles they wanted and more! Many more will go this way as online sites for liquor stores are increasing every day, making it easier to buy allocated bottles at good prices! We'll see what happens in 2024 but in the meantime, let's enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
David, That seems to be be the take from more than a few Tubers for sure. Even though the overall market has not let up yet. I do agree the market is cyclical. What was it as few years ago... Vodka, and before that it was craft beers. Bourbon is running its course right now but just try to buy a bottle of Fortaleza Tequila. The cycle is trending in multiple different directions. Who knows it could be Tequila, rum, or even cognac with the next big push? Someone famous needs to start a rumor that Kool-aid is HOT. Then maybe us non trend setters can set back and enjoy a nice pour without breaking the "Whiskey bank" (see how I did that lol ) Bourbon is (for the most part), a delicious brown consumable liquid that in my opinion (I know others can have opposing opinions) is not worth the price these special releases are bringing. Not when there are so many great pours just sitting on the shelf. Some people have totally lost their minds. I say this while sipping on 1783, a very nice low budget product that most people seem to have forgotten about. Another thought provoking video and well researched ! D
Hey Dana! Just like any luxury brand, there is some marketing and "fomo" involved in prices of bourbon and whiskey. Rarity and other factors has to be considered when talking price. A single family home in irvine isn't "better" than one in Victorville if you just see the homes, but obviously Location, weather, desirability, etc. all make it worth more. Kind of like a George T Stagg. Is better than Elijah craig barrel proof? Or other older, cask strength bourbons? Probably, but the rarity and notoriety of having that bottle increases the value significantly over other "similar" bourbons. Just like it would a car, a watch, or even handbags. What makes bourbon even more tricky is that it is a consumable, which means supply will decrease over time (most likely at a rapid pace). It's all fun to analyze but at the end of the day, just enjoying the pour in front of you is probably the best thing you can do 😆. Thank you so much for your view and wonderfully thought out comment! Truly appreciate it and cheers my friend ~
I'm going to be honest, it is highly unlikely inflation will be above 5% in 2024. Of course it could be, but hard to see it. Money supply is getting tighter and prices of gas (energy) and rent (housing) is slowing down significantly. Only thing keeping the economy afloat right now is government spending but that can't continue at this pace. But we'll see how 2024 goes and in the meantime, drink some good whiskeys at good prices! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank Thanks for the reply, sounds like you know your stuff. I'm an economist, and work with VISA and big banks, thats how I afford the good bottles lol. Its def expected to be about 5% for the next 5 years with the models, we are planning accordingly.
Bottles that have ridiculously high secondary prices at stores in my area just sit on the shelf. Nobody is gonna pay these insane prices. And now that most of the big brands have started to increase their MSRP because of the high secondary prices, people are even reluctant to buy them at MSRP. It's getting out of hand and something needs to happen.
Hey Silver Punk! If the MSRP increase while the secondary doesn't increase (or even decrease), the gap of profit the "flippers" can make goes down, which will less incentivize flippers to buy them. Of course that would be good & bad news. If Stagg MSRP went to $100 and secondary comes down to $150, you'll probably see Stagg on the shelves for a couple of days instead of being sold out instantly. That means you won't be able to find Stagg at $60 anymore, but at the same time, you won't have to hunt it down. Currently with MSRP at $60 and secondary at $200, that is a lot of profit to be made by "flippers", so that's why they sell out quickly as it's mostly purchased by "non-drinkers". Let's see how it goes in 2024 and let's hope for some luck on pricing! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
The problem is that there are too many "new collectors" who don't know any better. All they see is pictures of allocated bourbon so they think it's cool to only pursue those bottles and pay a premium for them. Even though they don't drink much and are just around to collect.
Hey Elliot! That is a problem that could exist and for the most allocated bottles (i.e. BTAC), that problem will continue in 2024. But it seems the level below the best bourbons (below Parker's Heritage, Jack Daniel's special releases, etc.) are not doing great as they did previously. Gatsby Reserve 15 year in 2023 are sitting on shelves now, Midwinter Night's dram act 11 is sitting on shelves, even Old Forester and Four Roses Barrel Proof store picks are sitting on shelves for a while before selling out here in my area. Only time will tell so let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
That's good to hear! Hopefully more and more good shelf bourbons will be affordable and so we don't need to pay high secondary prices or stand in line for the allocated ones! Let's hope for some good luck and prices in 2024! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
Its not only for bourbon, but for other whiskies products too. People will have to go outside their comfort zone and explore other products ( myself included). Yes mistakes will be made but who cares, that's the fun. The two I'm focused on are: Armagnac, and Canadian Whiskies. Armagnacs production are very very tiny, but we can easily find 30 to 50yr old bottles at a very reasonable price. ( ain't selling my car for a 30yr old scotch). Canadian Whiskies are also fun to explore ( aside from Alberta Premium cask strength). Those guys hardly leave the country because they get gobbled up domestically and outdated laws makes it difficult fir shipping. In the end, it's not the end of the world but it's welcoming news that prices are going down for drinkers. It's great that using financial analysis skills to use it on booze right? I use history background to look for undervalued goodies before the crowd comes in.
Hey Adrian! Sometimes it feels like I'm "winning" when I use my "expertise" to get good bottles at good prices 😂. I'm sure I'm losing but if I feel like I won, that's all that matters~ 😆. Canadian whiskies are exciting as well, especially since they are really doing good with transparency to know exactly what I'm drinking. I never tried Armagnacs so I'll have to look into that now😅. Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank We all have different specialties but as long as we use our knowledge and apply to the area that we're exploring, that's a win win situation ( FYI: I hate math but I like history). You'll have a lot of fun exploring Canadian Whiskies, and Armagnacs.
If you’re gonna take the jump at the scotch, I wouldn’t do it. The prices are just too high versus before. Here’s an example in September 2023 a 15 year Glengoyne scotch was $77. in January 2024 it went to $110. Some of this Scofch pricing is nuts. I saw Towbermory 12 year Scofch that was $77 now jump to $83.
Hey Dean! I'm very careful on what I buy in Single Malts and am trying mostly smaller, lesser known distilleries that haven't got popular enough to increase prices yet. Springbank 10 was a gift so of course that was awesome 😆. We'll see, I'm haven't jumped in the Single Malts yet so it'll be interesting to see what will happen in 2024! I greatly appreciate you always viewing and commenting on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
There's a lot of relatively 'garbage' offerings that are overpriced and these offerings need more experience and they need to refine their products. Other whiskey brands that are more established are releasing unappealing products that hope to trick consumers to buy just because of the brand reputation. Then there are whiskeys that have gradually become unfamiliar to their taste compared to the flavor profile they had years or decades ago. Some brands introduce products that are outrageously over priced and I would not touch them, because it's just a money grab. At this point, my local region does appear over stocked and I don't think merchants realize a problem, especially if a brand's reputation alters the buying mentality of consumers that used to favor an offering. I do expect some flash sales well below 50% for some brands because they haven't moved in months or well over a year.
I completely agree with you! I have been Old Elk Double Wheat, which was a +$100 bottles, on sale at $60, and it's still not moving!! I mentioned Peerless in my video, but there are so many others now. Liquor stores need to move these bottles for two reasons, first, to get the money to buy other inventory, but second, shelf space is limited and they can't just have bottles sitting there taking space and not making money. So let's hope for some great bourbon going on sale and wait for the allocated bottles to fall in prices 🤣. Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank Thanks for the response. Yes, I agree. The Old Elk whiskey had two of their different bottles drop in price below 50 dollars in a local Vons grocery store at their clearance section. It never sold. What else isn't selling because of outrageous prices are Benchmark bottles, Jack Daniels Frank Sinatra whiskey, Angel's Envy, Puncher's Chance, and Proper 12.
Hey Tom! Prices are area dependent and in the short-term (1 to 3 month span), the prices could increase (or decrease) without reason. I would still venture to say that "overall" prices will decrease by the end of 2024. But like I said in the video, the most popular bottles (Pappy, BTAC, even all of Buffalo Trace in general) will probably not decrease at all (might even increase due to inflation). It is the bottles that are "good" but seems overpriced that will probably come down. I would guess brands like Nulu (with single barrels over $100), Four Gate (with bottles over $200), will have to come down. Look at Old Elk at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024, that has "crashed" as double wheat and four grain (which were going for over $100 each) are now down to $40 to $50 in my area and still not selling out. It will be interesting to see what happens to prices in 2024, there can be macro economic factors that increase/decrease prices without any factors from the whiskey industry itself. Nobody know what the future hold for sure and if they did, they wouldn't be making UA-cams videos 😆, so let's just enjoy some good whiskeys in 2024 and see what happens! I truly appreciate your view and comment on my videos! Thank you so much and cheers~
The prices will come down only if the consumers stop over paying! All companies are driven by profits. If the stores can charge whatever they want for a bottle of Bourbon, they will. It's just like ticket scalpers at a concert or sports event. How many people would spend two,three or more times over MSRP for a new vehicle? Think about it.
I agree with you that if people continue to buy at these prices, there is no chance anything will come down. Only trend that I'm seeing in my area is that people are not buying at full secondary prices or some at "retail" prices. You're correct that the most in demand bottles won't come down in price (BTAC, Pappy, Parker's Heritage, etc.), but my belief is that the tier below that has reached a breaking point in prices and with increased competition and other choices, prices will come down from the high of 2023. Will that mean back to 2019? of course not, but lower than 2023? I think (hope) so 😂. Only time will tell and in the meantime, let's enjoy the great bourbons on the shelf at good prices! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
Here’s the problem David. Even if the bourbon that were shelf turds 4yrs ago become readily available. Supply and demand still won’t cover. Look at the lines at Buffalo trace for literally turds like blantons, eagle rare, even bourbon cream lol. Distillery owners have watched the beer community ramp up production so much that it’s killed craft beer. Willett doesn’t want to ramp up production when they can charge 300+ on a bottle of bourbon. Less work more money. It’s simple. Hope this clears things up.
I agree with you that is a problem. But a "solution" to that is competition. If only the big distilleries were in the market, then you'll be 100% correct. What killed the craft beer was not just over production from the big guys, but also with so many "local" breweries popping up every single day it seemed here in Southern California. It is happening in Bourbon, but not as fast as it is much easier and faster to brew beer than it is to distill and age whiskey. We'll see, I did say that one reason prices might not decrease is that these distilleries will focus on special releases or limited editions (especially high aged ones) that smaller distilleries just can't compete with as they don't have a supply of 10+ year old whiskeys on hand. We'll see how it goes in 2024 and it'll be fun! (hopefully 😆). I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
I agree. Reminds me of what the car manufacturers have done the last 2 years. Limit production on purpose to increase and justify the pricing. Looking at you Ford and Chevy.
@@TheUMIA that's a great comparison. I still can't believe the lots at dealerships are empty as they continue to price hike. Doing it on purpose for sure 😫
@@WhiskeyBank I as a consumer do wish that prices would come back to reality. I do miss eagle rare being 25 bucks and on the shelf 😂. I also don’t mind paying a premium for a craft distillery. Tbh, I just want good bourbon. The current market has gotten me to try things I’d pass on. Weller special reserve was my go to cocktail bourbon. I’ve since shifted to rye for cocktails. Then they came for sazz. Now I buy a local rye that while I wouldn’t drink neat it’s perfect for cocktails.
@TheUMIA you see, and the price should be 50 bucks a 5th. Tequila ocho is close to Fortaleza. The price of tequila has been slowing rising. It's becoming the new bourbon as far as prices.
That's a good idea and hopefully the prices will come down and allocation will get better so you come back to Bourbons in 2024! In the meantime, let me know which blanco tequila I should get that's non-additive to get my journey started! 😆 Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
One way to affect the price of bourbon in the U. S. A. is for the millions of bourbon drinkers to reduce their home inventory by one third. This could allow hundreds of millions of bottle of bourbon to remain in retail inventory, thereby increasing supply and lowering demand. Basic economics dictates when both supply increases and demand decreases price will drop. 🥃 I submit that fifty years ago the percentage of the population that were bourbon drinkers was likely similar to the last five years, but the behavior of many if not most changed. It changed in that many or most bourbon drinkers today have fifty (or more) bottles of bourbon in their homes; where in the past bourbon drinkers had maybe five bottles in their home. That difference of 45 bottles times ten or twenty million bourbon drinkers reduces the retail inventory by 450,000,000 to 900,000,000 bottles! If bourbon drinkers reduced their home inventory by one third, it would have a huge effect on prices! 💰
You are absolutely correct! There are ton of factors I wanted to address, but with this being a UA-cam video and not a seminar, I had to keep it short 😆. The buying will slow down in 2024. Even if the "bottle count" doesn't change, people are not increasing their bottles at home. So if they just stay at 50, new purchases will slow down significantly as most people drink about a bottle a month. Inventory is set to increase with many distilleries that expanded years ago and with new distilleries (or smaller distilleries) pumping out more and more whiskey everyday! It'll be a very fun and interesting year of bourbon in 2024! Let's see what happens! Thanks a ton for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers ~
Personally I just enjoy the different bourbons and I’m not a big fan of the secondary market. if that continues , will it push consumers away is my question. These distilleries are not setting these ridiculous prices.
Hey Russ! Distilleries are not "setting" the msrp high on the allocated bottles but "award" them to distributors who buy and sell more of their "other" spirits. Remember, Sazerac who owns Buffalo trace, also sell Wheatley Vodka, fireball, and Corazon Tequila (and many others), which are easier and faster to make. So they reward distributors who buy more of that stuff. In turn distributors pressure liquor stores to buy more of those products to be able to buy the allocated bourbons. This is why the liquor stores either sell it in bundles or increase prices or keep them for VIPs as they need to move those regular bottles. It's a lot more complicated than just "stores are selling it at above msrp because they're selfish". I could have made a 1 hour documentary on this but I don't have the equipment or editing skills to do so 😆. We'll see what happens in 2024 but hopefully allocation will get better and we all will get our hands on a bottle we want! Thanks a ton for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers ~
I've been at this since the 1990s. I like many types of booze and don't specialize in one thing. It has been interesting to watch over the years. When I see something get hyped through the roof, I typically run the other way. Jumping on the hype train is a great way to waste time and money. If the mob becomes obsessed with one particular bottle of rotgut, there is always something else good that has escaped the attention of the crowds. I refuse to wait in a line for a bottle of booze, especially for a bourbon (Blanton's, for example) that is good quality but rather unremarkable. Blanton's was a reasonably good choice when it sat on store shelves and sold for about $50, but the frenzy that surrounds it now is absurd. I've tried many of the mid-level allocated bottles, and with few exceptions, I find them to be good but unremarkable middle-of-the-road bourbons, and I have a hard time understanding why they are so absurdly popular. Maybe Buffalo Trace products aren't such a great match for my preferences. If so, then I can consider myself fortunate since I feel no desire to hunt for them. The bourbon boom might be showing some signs of cooling off, but unless there is a major economic disruption, it seems like it will gradually slow down rather than fall off a cliff. It seems like a lot of people are getting tired of hunting. If enough people stop going after the bottles that everyone seems to want, maybe supply and demand will come back into balance, and it will be possible to find them for a price that is in line with their quality. Over the next few years, tequila will be interesting to watch. I see some similarity to the early stages of the bourbon boom. Fortaleza has disappeared from store shelves, and some offerings from other distilleries are getting hard to find as well. Sadly, I think this situation is likely to spread like a cancer in the tequila market and cause other good bottles to become allocated and hard to find. I'm glad I have a lot of tequila now, so if it goes nuts like bourbon, my supply will last me a while. Like bourbon, tequila production is inelastic. Agave plants need a long time to mature, and there is only so much land available for cultivation. If demand suddenly spikes, supply can't catch up.
Hey Heather! Thank you for a well thought out and fun to read comment! 😆. Really do appreciate the sincere comment 🙏. I agree with you the price decline (if there is any) will be gradual throughout the year. When I talk about 2024, I'm talking about until December 2024, not the first month of the year 😆. But unless something unexpected happens (pandemic, war, etc.), I would see prices "overall" decrease. Obviously some of the crazier ones (BTAC, limited or special releases) will be exceptions. Other spirits are getting a look, but I am not sure on the credibility of the increasing trend yet. Is it a fad? Is it to be ahead of the curve? Or will it last? Only time will answer these questions 😅. I guess all we can do is enjoy the bottles we have and the ones we can get at a price we can afford 😆. Thanks again for your view and insightful comment! Truly appreciate it and cheers ~
Hey! Sorry to disappoint you but I'm in the Warren Buffett camp that Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value 😆. Obviously it has value and I have been missing out but we'll see. Triple entry accounting should be used in all government agencies for transparency 😁. I so appreciate you watching and being the 1st comment on my video! Thank you so much and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBankintrinsic Value is a fallacy. VALUE is subjective to the individual. Money few print out of thin air we all have to work for is no store of value to bitcoiners. Study it don't be an ostrich 🎉🎉🎉
Hey Thomas! That would not be good for bourbon prices for sure 😆. From what I know, there is plenty of white oak for now and it is one of the fastest growing trees so hopefully they can get ahead of the curve and start planning for it now so there is no issues in the years to come. Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
Choose your words carefully. You may have to back step your predictions. The allocated bottles aren't coming down in price. As long as there are, people who will continue to pay the ridiculous secondary prices. JMO
That is the fun of predictions, I can be right and I can definitely be wrong 🤣. I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again 😆. I agree with you to a certain extent that the most collectible and rare bourbons will not go down in price (BTAC, Pappy, Birthday bourbon, KoK, etc.), but others will either come down in price or be more available (which will lower secondary or aftermarket prices). Of course this will heavily depend on your area as I'm lucky to be where there is a lot of allocation of good bourbons. We'll see how it goes and you may be right and the prices don't come down, but let's hope I'm right and prices do come down 😀. Thanks for watching and have a great day!
That's the first time I got called a bourbon whisperer 🤣. I do hope I'm right about this one as bourbon prices were way too high in 2022 and 2023. It seems there needs to be a correction so we can all enjoy some great whiskeys at good prices. Let's hope for a fantastic 2024! I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
Well, gas coming down would lower my hunting expenses 🤣. We'll see how it does in 2024. Prices increased so rapidly in 2021 to 2023 that there might be a correction in prices, which would mean it be a little lower than 2023 levels, but still higher than 2020 for sure. Let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024 with many new releases and small distilleries doing some great stuff! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Super appreciate it and cheers~
Hey Robert! 🤣 but if it drops, that means it's sitting on the shelf so maybe you will get a chance at one! Supply is increasing for sure (not all allocated bottles but for many they are). So let's hope for a great 2024 for bourbons and in the meantime, drink some good whiskeys while we wait for the prices to come down (hopefully 😆). I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
Hey Marco! That is so true! I tried to find a Fortaleza Blanco the other day as I heard good things and it was impossible to find. More competition the better so let's hope for more great spirits and bourbons in 2024! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
Let’s be clear here, MSRP will not be falling at all, period. These companies have too much invested to start lowering price. The only prices that you will see down are secondary and what I refer to as primary gougers (retailers that charge over MSPR) A few dollars is one thing, but when you’re pricing Eagle Rare at $100 and BT at $50, well, go F yourself. And everyone is mad that Campari is setting MSRP so high on their special releases and has doubled the price of RR13. Well, guess what? You only have yourself to blame. Anytime you buy secondary price on a bottle, you’re just encouraging the distilleries to raise prices. And wait until these emerging markets overseas start to buy whisky from the US on a regular basis like Japan. The availability in the US is gonna get even tighter.
You could be correct and if all those come true, prices will not come down one bit. But remember, if secondary prices come down and there is less of a "profit" to make from MSRP to secondary, flippers will be less incentivized to buy, which leaves more for drinkers. Also, imagine if Stagg secondary came down to $150, you think this won't affect pricing for Old Carter and Four Gates at $200+? How many people will now buy Stagg instead of a Four Gate? And etc. etc. The domino effect of secondary coming down can't be underestimated. But you're right and as I mentioned, international opportunities are there and if the distilleries choose to do so, it would decrease supply significantly. Let's see what happens in 2024 and in the meantime, enjoy the great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices! I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
@@WhiskeyBank Secondary prices coming down don’t factor into Marc and Sherry Carter’s price schedule or Four Gate or anyone else for that fact. Those places are NDP and many times they have to buy juice from a middle man instead of direct from the distillery. They spend a lot on juice to blend and it’s gonna cost you to buy it. Also, they’ve only been in business since 2019. With most of those Covid years, know ones knows who’ll survive a real time market. Four Gate was at $200 msrp, old Carter $150, and 3 Chord at $200 3 years ago when you could still get Stagg Jr, ECBP, and EH Taylor small batch and single barrel at msrp btw that 15yo 3 Chord was from Beam and it was the same juice that was going into knob creek single barrel picks.
@@docscout You could be right, I could be right, but let's just hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024! 😆. Prices will go up and down, left and right, and it'll ultimately be up to the consumers to see what happens.
Hey Kevin! So do I! Honestly the most demand bottles probably won't (btac, Pappy, stagg, etc.) But hopefully the others will! There are still good bottles out there that are expensive 🤣. Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers ~
Hey Douglas! Yeah, it seems they have been pushing tequila and rum lately on a lot of their channels. It seems the views are high as well as there isn't as much competition in the UA-cam space for those as well. Competition is always good for prices and quality as well. Hopefully this will decrease prices in bourbon but also increase the quality that they have to put in bottles to have us spend our hard earned cash! 😁 I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
You didn't account for morons with too much money that will buy it at whatever price so they can be "in the club" of people that like whiskey. If I see one more post of someone's "collection" that is nothing but BTAC derivatives, I'm gonna puke. There are a ton of other options that are way better and much cheaper.
Hey CW! I agree and that's why I said BTAC and Pappy (and other greatly collectable) bottles probably won't decrease in 2024. It is very collectable and a "show off" piece, even if they don't drink it. But I'm thinking everything else below it (even Stagg and EH Taylors) will decrease in 2024 (not a lot, but some). But that will have a domino effect on other bourbon prices as if you go to a liquor store and buy Stagg at $150, who is going to buy Old Carter and Four Gate at $250? Not many, so they'll need to lower prices, etc. We'll see what happens in 2024, but in the meantime, let's drink the good whiskeys on the shelf the collectors don't buy! 😄 I super appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thank you so much and cheers~
Great video, David. You especially nailed my sentiments when it comes to hunting certain allocated bottles. I've had it up to here with the constant games playing and hoops jumping. The small stores where I've gotten to know the owners, those places might get 1-2 BTACs or PVWs. Even as a good customer, I can't expect to be one of the lucky recipients of those bottles. They probably have a dozen or more other good customers to take care of. As for the large grocery chains that receive the majority of the rare allocations, either the managers are keeping it all for themselves and their buddies, or they use a loyalty club/raffle system. They also experience a high degree of employee turnover, so you might see sudden and unexpected changes in how they handle allocations if the new manager decides to switch things up. It's all so tiresome and frustrating, lol. Again, great job on this video, and cheers!🥃✌️
Thank you so much for the awesome compliment! This was fun video to make and doing the analysis was also exciting to see what results I will get. Economic trends on luxury goods are slowing rapidly around the world and whiskeys are a luxury good, so I would expect the same thing. And just comments from you and others in the section, it seems many people are sick of hunting and playing the games. I guess only time will tell what will happen, but let's sit back, relax, and look forward to fun and exciting year in bourbon in 2024! I truly appreciate your view and comment! Thank you so much and cheers~
the fact is year on year the demand for whisky-bourbon is down about 5% and only the very very high end is there more demand than supply. Even the Buffalo Trace distilery that likes to keep high demand and low inventory is seeing a big down tic in the more base offerings.. you can now find the bottom 25$ Buffalo Trace on the shelves everywhere like before the bourbon boom. The secondary market is slowly comming down to earth. Just saying.. the specialty market will always sell out limited tiny releases at premium prices.. but that is not where the backbone or meat of the market.. the daily drinkers just want a good 30ish dollar bourbon they can walkin and walkout with.. the rest is just HYPE for COLLECTORS.. thats like .0001% of the public ... statisticly irrelevant and are there for MARKET HYPE.. like we make the best so-and-so.. so, yah the BOURBON BOOM IS OVER... further more.. the MGP or brands that poped out of nowhere marketing whisky they did not distil or age, just bought it from MGP and sells for 90$ will go away.. disappear and relieve the shelves of over hyped over priced juice. Some consolidation will be in the next few years.. I agree with your essential conclusions, the RARE Hype labels will still be hard to obtain, but thats a problem for the label whores .. most prices are already comming down or daily drinkers like Wild Turkey 101.. cheap and great pour.
Hey Mike! Great analysis! It seems into the beginning of February, that trend has continued where more "overpriced" items that used to fly off the shelves are not selling as fast (Highwest Midwinter's, Remus Gatsby 15 year old, etc.). Hopefully this will help many good whiskeys at $100+ come down to the more affordable $50 to $60. Let's keep the trend going in 2024! Thank you so much for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers~
Yeah, it seems some liquor stores are still stuck in 2022 and think people will buy at any prices like they did that year. They don't seem to do any market analysis or even competition search to see what they are dealing with. Oh well, there are bad business owners everywhere and liquor stores are no exception. There is one close to my home where they started charging 3.5% credit card fee for all transactions. Let's just say I won't be going there anymore 🤣. I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
What do you think will happen to Bourbon prices in 2024?
I like your analysis. Appreciate you sharing your background too. Salute for grinding it out in Finance for 20 years. Regarding Bourbon pricing. My feeling is prices will get an inflation adjustment and the big releases will go up in price. That JD 18 year will be $250 min. I just saw Jacob’s Pardon batch 3 18 year go for $170 before tax. Close to $10 per year. Bourbon is going that route or higher at msrp. 😢
@@TheReal_DeanD Hey Dean! It's been a fun 20 years 😆.
Your right that the good limited edition or special releases will probably only increase in price in 2024, but I see a overall trend of decrease in other, shelf available bourbons.
We'll see how it ends up in my 2025 video! Thanks again for all your comments and cheers ~
I see bourbon prices dropping. Tequila will go up. Japanese whiskey is pretty good.
@@maddkatter7948 hope there will be some great releases this year with good prices! Cheers~
This was an awesome video David! Really interesting to hear your perspective and analysis from somebody in the finance industry with knowledge on what markers to look for to see market trends.This was a very well thought out topic and presented very well, even for people like me who aren't the brightest bulb in the bunch. Keep up the great content! Cheers buddy.
- Trenton
Get to bed Trent. Need you bright and squirrely for SLB. Love your show with pops.
Hey Trenton! It is an honor to have you watch and comment on my video! 😆. Like many in the WhiskeyTube world now, we enjoyed and viewed your videos and many others (ADHD whiskey, Mash & Drum, Stuff & Whiskey, just to name a few) and gave us the pathway to starting our own channels!
Also, let's be honest, your tasting notes are Einstein level genius and can't be replicated! (Basketball note was my favorite!).
Thank you so much for all you do for the whiskey community and giving small channels like me a blueprint on how a good whiskey channel should be done!
I sincerely appreciate your view and comment as it really encourages me to keep getting better and keep working on this channel! Thank you again and cheers~
@@jtcosimmonsma7071 I concur! Love the show~
I'm with you on the "I'm tired of hunting" - not that I did much hunting myself. I am finding some great budget alternatives (to the more expensive bottles that I know I love) and have settled on a few offerings from my favorite distillers that are above average in price and not super hard to find. And if I come across the occasional "unicorn" where the price isn't too far above MSRP, I'll grab it. Yet I am finding that all that I need in whiskey is usually available at very affordable prices.
I’m the same way. When I got into a few years ago it was exciting and the chase was fun. Now, family growing, and growing old of the same allocation in state run agencies. If there’s a chance at something amazing, sure but it gets old after a while
Hey Karl! I hear you and I hear this from many of my friends that started our whiskey journey together! They got into real good single barrels (Rare Character, Nashville Barrel Company, etc.) and there are a ton of great bottles just sitting on the shelf now! I still enjoy the hunt, but I will not wait in lines or go before opening to get a bottle. Hopefully distilleries and big brands will focus on every day whiskeys in 2024 and we will have even more choices!
I greatly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a million and cheers~
That is so true! No more waiting in line or going at opening to get a bottle 😆. With all the time and money (gas, wear and tear on the car, etc.) I save by not hunting and enjoying great whiskeys on the shelf, I feel so good~
I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
I won't make any real predictions, but collecting bourbon is a fad created by clever advertising, and fads never last long. Bourbon has become the new "Beanie Babies" for collectors. My suggestion is "Collect what you enjoy drinking."
I agree 100 percent.
That is absolutely true! Some are clever advertising and presentation, but some are due to demand and popularity (i.e. BTAC). I think the days of any "special release" or "limited edition" bourbons, especially new ones, flying off the shelves are over. People are waiting for reviews or prices to come down before they buy it. Of course there are some that will sell out quickly (Jack Daniel's releases, Parker's Heritage, etc.) but there will be tons that will not sell (Midwinter's night dram this year along with Gatsby Reserve 15 year). Let's hope for some price relief in 2024!
I truly appreciate you watching and commenting on my video so soon after launch! Thanks a ton and cheers~
I completely disagree, and here’s why. Bourbon isn’t a fad created by clever marketing. Quite the opposite. The bourbon boom was not in any way created by clever marketing or really any marketing. It was grassroots on Facebook, forums, and Anthony Bourdain raving about Pappy. The boom was ground up from enthusiasts re-discovering it and spreading the hobby to others, not from top down marketing efforts. Secondly, it’s substantially different than something like the beanie babies fad because that fad came about purely for the sake of collecting and hoping to resell, whereas with bourbon it started from people chasing the unicorn bottles to drink them. While it’s true it’s now in many ways become about collecting and reselling, the utility of bourbon is that it can be drunk and enjoyed, and if wine, scotch, cognac, etc. are indicators, there will ALWAYS be rich people wanting to splurge on high end liquor.
@@thomasmichael6509 hey Thomas! I agree with you the ones that got popular and allocated due to quality will always be tough to get (BTAC, etc.). But there are some that's a lot of marketing and fancy words. I'm hoping those will get exposed in 2024 while the supply of quality bottles increase so everybody can get something! More people who enjoy bourbon is always better as there will be more people to drink and share it with! 😆.
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Great discussion David. There may a reduction on some of the everyday bottles and more sales, but I do not see any of the new releases or special bottles decreasing in price. I do not see this changing as long as you have people paying $200 for Stagg, which is a $59.99 bottle. Or paying $250 for a Weller 12 Year, which is a $45 bottle. 🥃
Hey Dave! I agree with you! I think those bottles will take some time to decrease and probably won't happen in 2024. You'll be surprised how popular Stagg, EH Taylor, and Weller is in Asia. But others I do see coming down and I'm hoping to see Old Carters come down to $150 so I can just enjoy those and not have to worry about finding a Stagg or EH Taylor Barrel Proof at reasonable prices 😁.
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@@WhiskeyBank I would be thrilled to see Old Carter at $150!!!!!
Secondary price for Weller 12 went from a steady run of £160 (here in the UK) down to £80 in the past few months, so it's definitely possible.
@@dogsbusiness wow! That's a significant decrease. Thanks for the information!
Facts 🤨
Thank you for your perspective, David, great video!
Hey CrispyTaters! Just a bourbon loving guy making predictions for fun. Let me know your thoughts on what you think will happen in 2024!
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I love Peerless. Bought a few bottle last summer at a store that had them on sale for $39.99.
I hope we see bourbon prices fall this year, I will be buying as many bottles as I can. I think although people are venturing over to spirits such as rum, tequila and mezcal, bourbon will be the thing everyone goes back to.
Great video, you gave some strong points.
I do think bourbon prices will "normalize" somewhat in 2024 as competition will increase and the money supply will decrease (high interest rates, banks not lending due to increased regulations, etc.). Hopefully the competition from other spirits will not only decrease prices, but increase quality of some bourbons as there were some bad bourbons in 2023.
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Great video. I’m not going to stop hunting but I’ve changed my buying habits. I’m passing on most shelfers nowadays. I have moved to buying store/group picks. Plus, there are some good deals on them since most bourbon drinkers only buy Buffalo Trace products. I am going to try to get into Rye’s and grab a MaCallan 12 at some point.
Hey Victor! That is a great idea and something many of my bourbon friends are doing as well! There are some great ryes out now and since it's not as popular as bourbons, they are mostly available at retail prices without needing to hunt them down. Let's hope for a great 2024!
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Great conversation. I think distillers will continue to price LE’s at a price to combat secondary. Shelf bottles will stabilize in pricing. MSRP will not be lowered but retailers will have to discount more often and hotter to bottles in the $150-$250. Finally I think we will see more distillers down sizing to 700ml from 750ml. Thanks for the conversation
Didn't even think about the 700ml part. Remember, they are doing that as "international" bottles can only be 700ml or 1L, so that means they are preparing to ship overseas, which again, can have a negative affect on the prices here in the US. We'll see how this goes in 2024 but in the meantime, let's enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices!
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Thus is one of my new favorite whiskeytube channels to watch! The vibe is spot on, I love the graphics, and it's a real inspiration for me in my whiskey journey to create content. Thank you good sir for sharing your knowledge on the subject.
Hey Mexibilly! It all starts with the first video! I was so afraid of being "perfect", I always pushed it off, but now after 50+ videos, it seems I'm starting over again everything as there is so much I learn every video! If you have any questions, you are feel to contact me (email in description of the video). Let me know your thoughts as well on what you think will happen to the bourbon market in 2024!
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Secondary will decrease, but MSRP will increase. This will be in general, outliers will exist in both categories.
That is most likely true! I see Stagg MSRP going above $80 this year while the secondary should be below $200. Hopefully the trend of 3 batches a year will continue (or more), which will increase supply and lower prices (or more likely chance we'll find it at MSPR). But long as secondary goes down, overall prices of bourbons should go down as that was the reason liquor stores (in non-state controlled areas) were able to charge so much. And the bundles will hopefully stop (or be reasonable) as well.
Let see what happens in 2024 and in the meantime, enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf for good prices!
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I stopped chasing allocated juice. So many great bottles out there. Plus alot of barrel picks $50-80 are great. Got SIB Heavens Door 2 days ago. Fantastic bottle. $65.
Hey Troy! I hear you! I hear that from so many of my friends that it seems I'm the only one always on the hunt now. And even I don't wait in line or go to Costco at 8am 😆. Barrel Picks are fantastic and there are so many new ones at good prices (Bardstown Origin Series, etc.) that I am passing on a lot of these "allocated bottles" as well. Hopefully the trend will continue and we will get Stagg at MSRP 🤣 (not going to happen in 2024... but maybe in 2025?? 😋)
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Great content David! I think there might be a price reduction,but I see it more on the mid tier level and forget about the tier one making a change. With the price reduction on bourbon will just depend on what you're looking for and if you are able to find it at MSRP without having to pay secondary prices. This 2024 will be a change on exploring smaller or newer upcoming distilleries, tequilas, and maybe rum. For now I will enjoy what I have aquired. Cheers!
Hey Jesus! Keeping your options open to other spirits and bourbon is the best way to keep your FOMO in check and just enjoy what you can get! I try to do that, but I'll be honest, I get FOMO too much 🤣. Hopefully I'll be able to control it better in 2024! I am also looking forward to smaller distilleries in 2024 and I really hope 13th Colony, ASW, Found North, Still Austin, etc. will expand their distribution so we can get all their lineups here in California in 2024!
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Congrats on the success of this video David! you are KILLING it these past several weeks! you will be at 10k subs in no time! 🎉🎉🎉
Hey Troy! It all has happened after I appeared in your live stream! 😆. Maybe you can use this and tell others that once they appear as a guest in your stream, they'll blow up too! Let me know if you ever need a guest on your live stream and I'll show up anytime!
Let's hope for a great year of bourbon in 2024!
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It will largely depend on the macro economic outlook in my opinion.
Hey TheAldawg77! Yes, that is true! If unemployment goes above 4.5%, interest rates don't come down as predicted, and inflation is still above 3%, all prices will come down significantly! But if unemployment stays at 3.8% or below, rates come down, and inflation is below 2%....watch out!! Bourbon prices will be back to 2022 levels! We'll see how it goes in 2024. Let's hope for the best!
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I 100% agree that the Bourbon world has changed and price will go down. Most people I know are sick of hunting, basically if I run across an allocated bottle Ill buy it, but Im not out there actively looking for it... I also notice on my Bourbon groups online, no one is impressed with peoples museum collections, in fact you just look like a jerk having huge numbers of allocated bottles but not drinking them. I am also seeing a lot of bottles that used to be hard to find readily available. Not to mention Inflation is hurting a lot of people, and they cannot afford these expensive Bourbons like they used to. I agree I am expanding into other Spirits esp Rum. And when if comes to Bourbon I am now much more interested in finding new and different bottles from smaller distilleries than just the big boys. They are just fun and interesting to explore. The Bourbon craze was something amazing, esp during COVID, but I think its time has passed, hope the industry enjoyed this time, all good things come to an end... Just ask Vodka about the 90s
Hey Keith! Times are changing rapidly and COVID was a catalyst for much of it, especially in the bourbon industry. And it seems the post-COVID world is doing it again. Whiskey does take some time to distill and age to get it right and compete with the big boys (6 to 10 years), but hopefully they had time now to put out some good whiskeys in 2024 so there will be more interesting and fun bourbons to drink! I really look forward to what 13th Colony, ASW, Redwood Empire, Bardstown, and New Riff will do in 2024 as this gives them an extra year to put out some good whiskeys!
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I hope you're right! Would love to find my first Booker's at
My local tw had the storyteller batch for $120 last week. I find the actual msrp to be a little high but the extra $20-$30 was enough to turn me away. I can get a knob creek 120 proof store pick with more age for half the price.
I will say you will find a Booker's for less than $100 in 2024! I'm sure of it! 2023 batches in California weren't "flying" off the shelves like they did in 2022 and I'm sure it'll even be slower in 2024. So that means more supply should be available in other states and hopefully in your area! Let me know if you ever find a Booker's at less than $100 in 2024!
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Great video and I think you're right on what will and won't decrease in 2024. I will tell you that I am right in middle TN and all of the low to mid level Buffalo Trace stuff (even Stagg) is becoming more and more available in the past several months along with several other brands in that range. I went out hunting for it and required some luck, but i nailed down 4 bottles of Stagg here and 1 in FL for retail. So hopefully that's an indicator that companies are looking to stock in the US and not go overseas. That seems to be in line with BT's large production investment. But like you, I think we're at least another 4-5 years from seeing those elite and LE bottles come down in price or scarcity.
Hey Jon! I agree with you that Middle tier Buffalo Trace is more abundant! I see more EH Taylor Single Barrels and Straight Ryes in the past 3 months than I see 2 years before that! Same thing with Stagg and Eagle Rares. I think people are underestimating the domino effect of these bottles decreasing in price or being more available as it will make other bottles not as desirable or sit on the shelves. Let's hope both of us are right and prices "normalize" in 2024! (of course this means we'll be wrong and Stagg will go up to $400 😂).
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@@WhiskeyBank I think you're exactly on point! I was talking this over with friends from Tampa Bay whiskey society and you nailed most of the points I saw. Will keep watching now that I know where you are here!
@@jongorman5256 thanks a ton!! I'll try not to disappoint 😆
Hey David. Like you said in the video. Prices on certain bottles have already come down in the second half of 2023.
I dont see any circumstance where the economy drastically improves in 2024 therefore I am sure prices will continue to come down. Now will they go down to what they were two or three years ago. I don’t think so, but with people have less discretionary income, supply will go up and prices will come down.
I see this most likely happening in the bottles that arent made by buffalo trace, which is a good thing for people like us who appreciate a good four roses, old forester, knob creek etc etc.
Hey Glen! I absolutely agree with you! I think the $200 price range is in trouble (Knob Creek 18, Hardin's Creek Series, Wild Turkey Master's Keep, etc.) as the Buffalo Trace (Stagg, Weller, EHT's, etc.) are all coming down below that price point. I also don't see economy getting better in 2024 (might not get worse, but not better) so it'll be very interesting to see what happens. Let's all hope for the best and we all can get Stagg at MSRP 😂 (J/K, won't happen... in 2024).
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I went into a small liquor store today who had the same five bottles of stagg for $250 that they had a few months ago. So the bottles might not drop to msrp but they may creep down a little bit from where they are right now.
@@GLENBECKHAM Creeping down is the start. Let's see what happens when they are still on the shelf and 24A, 24B, etc. comes out. Hopefully they'll be incentivized to lower it to $200 or even $150 to move it 😆. We can all hope 😂.
I can definitely see that happening
I bought a bottle of Murray Hill for 100. It is like you said excellent. I don't know if bourbon prices will drop this year. Demand is still there. But hopefully it slows down a bit as you said.
Hey Sean! Of course many of the factors I presented really depends on your location. If your in a big city or a large populated area (like I am in Southern California), it's going to be different than a lower populated areas in the US, as just the economics are different. Not all prices will drop this year. I think good bottles like Rare Breed, Knob Creek 12, Jack Daniel's Barrel Proof, etc. will actually go up slightly. But you will see good bottles go down in price. I believe, even though they produce good whiskeys, Barrell Bourbons will come down to ~$70 from their current price of ~$90 in my area. I already see Seagrass and Dovetail come down to ~$80.
But we'll see what actually happens in 2024! If I could predict the future, I won't be doing this channel and be on an island drinking BTAC all day! 🤣.
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@WhiskeyBank you and I need to take a road trip away from SoCal to one of the lower states to hunt down some of these bottles lol. I enjoy your channel content. Thanks for the explanation.
@@mr.seanster that would be a blast! And catch some college football while we're at it 😆. Maybe some day~ we can all dream 😭
I think if prices continue to keep going north, I will cut back and have a smaller selection However, unless the economy really takes a dump, I don’t foresee prices really dropping other than the secondary market coming down a little little bit. 😎🥃
Hey Michael! Even if the secondary market comes down a little bit, it'll have a huge impact on retail prices. For example, if Stagg continues to be at $200 or below on secondary, that would be a huge problem for Knob Creek 18, Hardin's Creek Series, Old Carter and Four Gate (and others in the price range) as people will just buy the Stagg instead in many cases. So those prices come down. So then the $150 bottles will go down, etc. Imagine if Stagg was $150, who buys a Four Gate at $225? Not many. So it's a domino effect. And that's just Stagg, imagine if Weller Full Proof and others come down below $200. But again, we'll see how it goes as its so early in the year~ Let's hope for the best!
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@@WhiskeyBankI want to know where everyone keeps finding Stagg at that price 😂. You’re so full of it. Haven’t seen a bottle online for less than $300 all year and can’t get it at any of the local stores
@@mattk7903 Obviously prices of bottles will differ from location to location. But here in Southern California, the going rate for Stagg is $200. A little higher for more popular batches. I can go to 2 or 3 liquor stores within 10 minutes from my house and buy Stagg right now for $200. Southern California is different due to it's large population, but also the diverse population. Many people who drink a ton don't even know what a George T Stagg is😆. They drink wines, vodka, tequila, soju, sake, etc. So this area gets a ton of distribution of everything, including bourbons.
But I will say, if it's happening here, I hope it happens to your area soon.
First time watching this channel. Good work and good insight!
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I think the limited releases and super allocated bottles will remain high for a few more years because there's always someone ready to pay for the opportunity to say, "I own that bottle" I believe you're right, an abundance of alternative products (i.e. tequila) and bourbon will drive down the cost of more shelf ready bottles. Probably around 10 to 25 percent. Great video as always! Cheers! 🥃
I agree with you as good whiskey takes time to make (10, 15, or even 20+ years) so the small distilleries can't just take short cuts to compete with the BTAC or even Parker's Heritage or Jack Daniel's Special Releases. So those will take some time to come down, but bottles on the shelf coming down in price will be a nice start 😁.
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After a little over a year of bourbon hunting and drinking, I’m getting into tequila. All the high end tequila, minus Fortaleza, are on the shelf for under $60. I’m sticking to the brands you mentioned. Redwood Empire is delicious and on the shelf. Jack Daniels SBBP is on the shelf and $55 or under. Barrel products on the shelf at the higher end at $80. That’s my upper limit, but I like them.
This seems to be the road many of my friends are taking in 2024. Hopefully this will get the attention of distilleries but mainly distributors and liquor stores so they don't jack up the price for these allocated bottles! Let's hope for a exciting and fun year of bourbon in 2024!
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The spirit I've found myself gravitating to outside of bourbon is armagnac. The older cousin to cognac, its lack of export (not being near a port in the south of France) has kept it relatively underappreciated and you can get ridiculous vintages for stupid low prices, at least compared to what said vintages would cost you in scotch, bourbon, cognac, etc. It's also pretty close to bourbon in experience, both certain flavor notes and mouthfeel.
Hey Dylan! Never tried an Armagnac, but I have heard you can get 30 year old Armagnac at crazy good prices so maybe it's worth a shot 😆. I will need to do some research on it as it does sound interesting when I do a simple Google search. Thank you for the suggestion!
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Thank you for sharing your opinion about the bourbon price prediction. I agree to your opinion. that there will be 2 separated price trend in 2024. The high-end bourbon product such as STEG/Russels' 13yo etc. would keep popular in the market meanwhile middle-low graded products will come down due to increased demand of world wide bourbon market such asia and europe.
I agree with you that the super high-end and allocated bourbons will probably not decrease (or even increase) in prices in 2024 as demand is increasing in the US and worldwide. The middle tier bourbons will have a hard time keeping the prices high due to so much competition and will most likely come down to sell. It'll be very interesting to see what happens in 2024, but only time will tell! Let's just enjoy some great whiskeys in 2024 😆.
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I think you need the glut before the competition. Consider that distributors are acting as gatekeepers and keep the market artificially high. I predict there will be occasional price slashing (like that peerless you showed) to move inventory, but prices will more or less stabilize where they are. The only thing I think we'll see is the introduction of more cheap whiskey to add some new variety to the bottom shelf. Stuff like Benchmark and canned cocktails, but coming from craft distilleries in a desperate attempt to stay afloat. Liquor stores will struggle to move higher end stock and will be at the mercy of distributors. Control states will continue to try to maximize profits. I think you're spot on that BTAC and similar will still command high prices. But that'll be it. You're going to see the aftermarket flooded with people trying to clear personal inventory. I just saw someone offer 25 bottles at a combined retail value of well over secondary for WLW and get a polite no.
Hey Anthony! You could be right and it really depends on the area or State you live in. For me, living in a large populated area (Southern California), we get a lot of distribution of allocated bourbon due to the fact we sell so much for other spirits & wine. It's due to the large population, but also the fact that it is so diverse with many people that don't even know what a George T Stagg is (I was one of them until 2016 or so). Many other places in the US doesn't have that luxury and bourbon is all they sell, which doesn't help with distribution.
Let's see what happens in 2024 as I'm sure I'll be wrong 😂. If I could correctly predict the future, I wouldn't be making UA-cam videos, but instead be drinking GTS on an island somewhere 🤣. This was just my thoughts and simple analysis of the bourbon industry.
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Great video David! Your analysis seems on point. There's so much potential for international growth that it can easily swallow up any sag in domestic demand. But doesn't that facet just mainly affect the large distillers?
As i understand it, the crafts and even midsize distillers are frozen out of scalable export sales due to export/tariff/connection hurdles.
I agree the true unicorns will probably tend to stay firm or increase in price and the distillers will continue to raise MSRP on those to claw back the rent seeking behavior of the secondary.
The rest of the $100-250 upper-mid tier price will have a reckoning at some point hopefully. I've only ventured into that range twice when I've had the chance to buy unicorn-ish collector bottles at MSRP. But for actual drinking, i just don't understand the demand when there are so many exceptional bottles around in the $70-100 tier.
Hey Jay! You'll be surprised on what bottles I saw in Korea. Sagamore Ryes, James E Pepper, Yellowstone, Whistle Pig, along with the big distilleries. Distributors already have a channel with exporting and if the distilleries can do the marketing to create demand, I don't think it would be all that difficult (but probably costly at first with the setup expense) to start exporting to countries with demand. If the distributors and retail stores in the country can make money (and the country also collect taxes 🤣), it can happen quickly.
I'm hoping the good bourbons in the $200+ range does come down. I love my Old Carters and Four Gates, but I can't spend $200+ a bottle often so I have to be very picky in what I buy so most of the time, I just don't buy them 😆.
Let's just for a fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024!
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Fantastic video David! This video is a home run for you based on all of the views and the number of comments you’ve already gotten. Congratulations!
I'll be honest, I am very surprised this video is doing this well! So much pressure on my next video 😆. Just kidding, I'll keep doing what I'm doing and hopefully it'll be fun. Let's hope for a great and fun year of bourbons in 2024 and let's enjoy it together!
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I thought the opposite was more likely, that prices will increase.
I’ve heard that supplies of properly seasoned oak for barrels is dwindling. If this is true, there will be cost pressures for new barrels. American whisky companies may explore malts and other whiskies that permit used barrels.
Separately, are grain prices stabilized? What is the expected price outlook for corn?
Hey Jello! 🤣. American Oak trees are one of the fastest growing trees in the world and the fact they are aware of it now with years of supply left, I'm hoping it doesn't become an issue. Also the slow down in housing and other construction will decrease the use of lumber (might not directly affect American Oak, but lumber yards might plant more American Oak to supplement if needed).
Grain/Corn prices will be a factor, but bulk of the distilleries' expense is actually room the whiskey aging process (storage, maintenance, damage, etc.). Unless Grain prices go up by 300% or more for a prolonged period of time (which is unlikely with so much corn production in the US), it should be fine.
Only time will tell and there certainly can be unforeseen events that occur to change prices. But in the meantime, let's sit back, relax, and drink some good bourbons on the shelf! Let's hope for a great year of bourbon in 2024!
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@@WhiskeyBank thanks for writing back. Perhaps I did not capture the oak issue cleanly.
While the wood and trees plentiful and replace easily, it is my understanding that the wood needs to season a couple years before it can be used to make barrels.
The problem that I have heard (take it with a grain of salt) is the stocks of the seasoned wood are diminishing much faster than is being replaced, due largely to the explosion in bourbon and rye popularity in recent years. This would be a temporary problem, if true, but would have a bottleneck effect for a few years. That would put pressure on the supply of bourbons and ryes.
@@ilikejelloyay208 I heard that as well. Let's hope that's not an issue as we don't need another reason for price increases 😅. Thanks again!
Good video. Well thought out defenses on your theories. I’ve been a big fan of store barrel picks lately to avoid paying secondary for good bourbon. In my area, believe it or not, barrel picks of reputable brands from Meijer have not disappointed
I believe you! Some of the best picks here has been from Vons (Safeway umbrella) and Total Wine & More (big liquor store chain). It seems since they do probably sell the most bottles, distributors and/or distilleries are giving them some great barrels to choose from so they can't miss! Single Barrels are a great way to get some great bourbon without paying secondary for allocated bottles!
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Thank you for the video, David. I started this journey primarily with Scotches and rum, and over the last 2.5 years, I ventured to American Whiskey/Bourbon. My experience is that the bourbon market is growing, a lot of options out there, but many people are hunting the same bottles, that in some cases are just Ok for the high price they are demanding ($60-$80 for a 4-6 year spirit); compared to Scotch that you can get 10-14 years, depending on the brand. I also see many brands outsourcing their juice from MGP and others a like, and asking high prices for young spirits. So for now, I am looking at rum and maybe Mezcal/Tequilas.
Hey Carlos! The economics of bourbon and scotch is slightly different. With warmer temperatures and new charred barrels used for bourbon, they age faster and lose a lot of whiskey to "angels share" (or evaporation) compared to scotch whisky. That being said, there are probably great values in single malts and scotch due to so many distilleries and world wide production.
I think rum and tequila is also a nice place to look as it will further develop your palate and you'll get more tasting notes when you come back to bourbon.
Let me know what your favorite scotch is!
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@@WhiskeyBank The scotch that got me into the journey was Glenmorangie and their Private Edition releases. I was able to get a hold of a few of them and I was very pleased with their range of flavors. Their core range is very solid, especially a few years ago when I could get the Glenmorangie 18 for about $100.00.
@@carlosc9127 heard good things about the glenmorangie whisky. Will do more research on them. Thank you! 😊
Prices may stabilize, but I don't see a significant price drop, especially among the major brands.
Hey Steve! I don't see too much drop off in any bourbons or whiskeys below the $60 price point and any of the major brands "signature" lineups. But I do see some coming down if they are above $60. I'm sure Knob Creek 18 (if there is a batch 3 in 2024) will be closer to $150 than the $200 price tag this year, etc. Of course this will differ greatly depending on location. But let's just drink some good whiskeys and see what happens in 2024!
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Mmmmmmm. Maybe. There may be some price roll backs, but not in a major way. For example, I saw McKenna 10 BiB at TW in HB for $55; down from highs of over $65, which is good. I hope that prices on the "limited releases" come down, but I'm not confident that will happen, at least not in 2024.
Thank you, for your insight. My gut tells me that we are still in the bourbon boom and that prices won’t drop. Sure, secondary prices will drop a little, but their are too many craft distilleries flooding the market and coming in at the $50-80 range off the bat without a proven track record to make brands in the same range come down in price. I say availability gets better, but prices stay the same this year. Just my opinion of course. Great video and I hope you are right.
Of course you could be right and me be wrong! If I was so good at predicting the future, I would have made a ton of money doing something else and not making UA-cam videos 🤣. It seems many people have "stockpiled" a lot of whiskeys and are now being real careful and picky on their next bottles. And with a influx of whiskeys expected in the $50 to $100 range, "retail" prices should come down as shelf space in retail stores are not "unlimited" and inventory will need to be cleared. But only time will tell! Let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024!
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I meet more and more people that are just getting started in hunting whiskey. I see demand going up and prices to match. Distillers see what secondary is and want that money for themselves. I'm likely going to do less hunting for allocated and just enter raffles and buy stuff thats easy to get and taste great. If I come across something allocated at a good price I'll get it.
Even though there seems to be more entering the market, there are also a lot of people like you that are "leaving" the hunting market. And those "silent" leavers are certainly less noticeable than the people who enter the market going place to place and just trying to buy everything. But as I said in the video, prices of the most in-demand bottles will probably not decrease (BTAC, Pappy, most of Buffalo Trace in general, crazy special releases), but "overall" the prices should come down. Old Elk is a good example in my area as some of those (double wheat, four grain, etc.) that were over $100 each are now on sale for $50 and still not selling. I don't see brands like Nulu keeping their prices at over $100 and hoping to sell out when there is so much good whiskeys for $60 now.
We'll see what happens in 2024, but let's enjoy some good bourbons while we wait and see!
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Well I certainly hope you're right. I have already begun to at least see more good bottles on the shelf.
Hey Mark! That is for sure~ Gatsby Reserve 15 year is sitting on the shelf this year when it sold out within seconds last year. Same thing with Single Barrels like Old Forester Single Barrel Barrel Proofs or even Four Roses Barrel Strength picks; they are just sitting on the shelves now when they sold out within minutes last year! There is hope!
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@WhiskeyBank Funny you mentioned those 2. They have both evaded me forever and I still don't see them. The OFSBBS has been on my pickup list for a couple years and I've yet to find one. Wife and I did a few distillery visits last weekend and I was finally able to get a 4 roses as well as the Peerless DO rye which is AMAZING 😂
@@mlinder2000 southern California is spoiled with our bourbon distribution 😆. But if it's happening here, it'll start to be distributed elsewhere, which means more for everyone. I'm sure you'll get one of each in 2024! Let's go!!
Love it David! Thank you for the video! Did you mind if I reference your video in a short later today? Cheers 🥃
Hey Sean! You can use my videos anyway you want and it would be an honor as you have many more "members" than I do 😆. What you do think will happen to bourbon prices in 2024?
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@@WhiskeyBank I believe you are spot on in your assessment! The highly sought after will still be chased and some of the “special” releases will drop. I love the aspect in figuring in foreign markets if production needs to create demands in other ways. Very informative and well done my friend! 🥃
@@echoesineternitybourbon Let's just hope all goes well in 2024! 😆
@@WhiskeyBank absolutely!!
You forgot to mention that Buffalo Trace has increased production exponentially, and they did it years ago so we are now starting to see increased supply. Stores that used to have one high end display case now have two or three plus more on the shelf behind the counter. It is just a matter of time till these "stores" decide they aren't making money collecting bourbon, they need to actually sell it to make a profit and we ( the vast majority) won't spend up like that any longer.
Hey CJ! That is very true! We are now seeing 3 batches of Stagg per year instead of two, which will further increase supply (and hopefully decrease prices or increase our chances of finding it at MSRP!). Buffalo Trace sells to distributors, so they got nothing to lose as they will buy them up! It's the liquor stores that will lose out if they just sit on shelves. I'm seeing more and more liquor stores lowering their prices on super premium bourbons as they need that money. Let's hope the trend continues in 2024 with more production from Buffalo Trace (and other great distilleries!) 😆.
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I think we're moving into a period where most people's curiosity for certain products will be a thing of the past. I think that factor alone hits the secondary market hard.
Hey David! I agree, the 2nd and 3rd tier secondary items are already either decreasing in price or just not showing up on secondary markets anymore. It's probably a combination of increased supply & increase in MSRP on those of these bottles where there is little to no margin for the "flippers" anymore. It's very increasing on how the first two months of 2024 as been and it'll be fun to see how the rest of 2024 will turn out. Let's just enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf while we sit back and find out! 😆
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For me, I think secondary market pricing is going to go down or stay at the same prices. In my area, though bourbon pricing will be the same and I agree that the special bottles will have a larger price tag. The distilleries have seen that there is want for the expensive bottles, so they’re going to keep that pricing accordingly. I bet the next Rickhouse release from Russell’s will be $350 MSRP.
Hey Dean! If Wild Turkey keeps making the Single Rickhouse the best bourbon of the year (better than BTAC from many WhiskeyTubers in 2023), people will buy at $350. It's the world we live in now. BUT if it isn't that high of quality, it will sit on the shelves. So it really depends on the quality. I think you'll see a combination of high priced and lower priced whiskeys from the big distilleries to "squeeze" out the small ones. But only time will tell and let's enjoy the bourbons we have and lay back and watch the fireworks! 🤣.
Thanks again for everything and cheers~
This is a very interesting topic. I hope the prices fall about 20-25%…. But I think the market , as a whole, isn’t ready to pop. So while some prices will fall, I’m not sure the hard to acquire bottles will drop. Some distilleries like Wild Turkey have to increase their prices so that they don’t become allocated because they have not increased their overall production. But distilleries like Buffalo Trace can’t truly raise their prices as they have expanded their production and have more of a surplus. This is what I heard from a guy in the whiskey business. It makes sense, but is still only one small slice of the pie to look at. So many factors play into prices… hopefully things move towards a more consumer friendly price.
Great video David! Absolutely love what you are doing! Cheers my friend! 🥃
Hey Vic! It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2024. 2023 was a fun year and we'll probably see more special releases and limited edition bottles from all distilleries this year.
Let's just enjoy the whiskeys we have and relax, lay back, and see what unfolds.
Thanks as always for your view and comment! Greatly appreciate it and cheers my friend!
I agree with you that overall prices will come down. But also the offerings in that $60-$120 range will increase in quality. So IMHO, that will also have a negative effect on the super high end stuff that you think might maintain their premium pricing. You no longer have to spend big bucks to get a super high end experience. Case in point is Old Carter. One of the best out there but as you rightly point out, they're probably at the saturation point price wise especially with other options. I won't buy it at their current price as I have too many other options at a lower price. And you pallet varies from day to day so why risk that much money for something that varies from day to day. Fun to speculate, that's for sure.
Hey Bradley! I agree and hope that this happens! I even forgot to mention Rare Character Exceptional series at around the same price point (~$200) that's producing great stuff! It'll take just one of those premium brands to lower their price to $150 to start a pricing war. And like you said, maybe even Barrell bourbon or others in the ~$100 range will increase quality to compete with them, which would be fun!
Let's hope for a fun and exciting bourbons in 2024!
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Good video. I don't think the prices will crash but slowly increase. The allocated bottles will be more rare but with the options, the unpopular bottles might be sitting on the shelves for a while. I'm predicting it's gonna be another banger of a year for bourbon.
Hey Danny! You are most likely right, but remember, retailers can't have whiskey just sitting on shelves! They don't have unlimited shelf space and if they don't sell, they will reduce prices to sell them. You're seeing that with Old Elk right now. Double Wheat, which sold for over $100 when it came out is now ~$60 is many stores. It might not happen in January or February of 2024, but I see it happening closer to summer time. But then again, if I was correct all the time, I would be rich from the stock market and not making UA-cam Videos 🤣. Let's see what happens in 2024 and enjoy good whiskeys at good prices in the meantime!
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@@WhiskeyBank Yup, I think that'll be for certain bottles. Old Elk is one I want to try but I never hear anything good on it haha. Same with Whistlepig. With all these options, I can't get everything.
@@100Proofer That's the problem! We can't get everything 😆
I was thinking about doing a live about this. Well done.
Yo~ If you do, I'll join the live as it'll be a fun subject to cover! I had so much to talk about, but cut it all out as it was just details that's not good for a video format but would be fun in a live format. Let me know what you think will happen in 2024!
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Interesting analysis and predictions, David. I agree that limited releases will probably retain their high prices and most likely go higher due to the ever-increasing demand - look at Japanese Whisky for example. However, I predict (and no analysis done on my end whatsoever) that bourbon prices will not drop, but simply stagnate, i.e. they will level off. I also predict that large distillers will streamline their offerings, with a focus on their core product line, and likely discontinue some of the lesser performing offerings. I also foresee that certain smaller craft distillers may close down or be acquired - look at the craft beer industry. This might be an interesting project idea for a simulation analysis🤓😉 Cheers!
Hey Rene! You bring up some great points! I certainly see smaller distilleries being purchased by bigger brands (Fred Minnick mentioned Coors is probably going to purchase one, didn't know which one). Japanese whiskeys are a great example of prices not declining and let's hope it doesn't go that route 😂. Only time will tell what will actually happen so let's hope for some fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024!
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Great analysis. I hope we do see some relief on pricing.
Hey Dave! Same here and I'm not even asking for the allocated stuff but just the everyday stuff like Old Forester 1920 or Rare Breed. If they decrease by like $5 or $10, that will mean everything else in that price range will need to do so as well. Let's see what happens in 2024!
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We can only hope, prices for some bottles are just ridiculous on the secondary market.
Hey Josh! I agree and those will probably not come down anytime soon as it is hard for smaller distilleries to put out 10 or 15 year old whiskeys as that takes... 10 to 15 years to make 😆. So I don't believe the Pappy 15, GTS, WLW, etc. will come down anytime soon. But others... maybe... probably... hopefully? 🤣. Let's see what happens in 2024 and in the meantime, let's enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf!
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Here in Texas I can walk into any small liquor store and find practically any bottle I’d want(except pappy). But everything is at secondary, so why hunt? I’m over over paying.
Hey John! 🤣. That's how it is here in California as well most of the time. It does take a lot of time and effort to try to find these bottles at reasonable prices, but I like to hunt so it's worth it for me 😆. Let's just hope we all can find these great bottles at MSRP soon!
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Good bourbon is bourbon you can actually find without getting price gouged. Which doesn't say much for most of these labels that come to mind. In my opinion bourbon is meant to be opened and enjoyed, best with friends. Seeing if you pick up the same notes and tastes or if you all are picking up completely different smells from the same bottle!
That is so true!! It's so much more fun and the whiskey is always better with friends! Unfortunately, some don't thing so, but it's ok. Let us enjoy it and have fun while they spend their money on allocated bottles!
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Thanks for the reply! The little group I am a part of, we're working class people. We can't afford to chase down every new hot thing and we dislike our regular favorites being swiped off the shelves by taters before we can get to the store. We're trying more store picks now since as I said before, it is bourbon we can actually find. You still take a chance on store picks but it's good to support the local stores that do it. Thanks again! @@WhiskeyBank
@@MetaPrometheus That's awesome! Keep doing what you're doing and have fun! 😆
The top heap bourbons probably won’t drop much. Middle tier bourbons like a knob creek 9 or Elijah Craig barrel proof, you could see them going down. Here in PA I have seen some prices go down in the last 6 months but we have state stores so the markups are higher. But if cost of grains goes up, the prices could go up.
The price of grain going is a very very small portion of a bottle of bourbon. Grain prices doubling would only add a few more cents per bottle. We grow so much corn it's used inefficiently for fuel.
Hey Mike! I agree top tier bourbons won't go down much as there is still too much demand and not enough supply. I still haven't been able to get a bottle of GTS or WLW so I'm the problem with that one 🤣. I think prices will have to come down to compete with all these smaller distilleries and brands coming in hot at $100 or less. But if margins get too thin, it'll be bad as the small ones will not survive long enough to produce great whiskeys to compete with the GTS and WLW. Let's see what happens in 2024!
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Interesting. That does make a lot of sense as most of their expense if actually coming from the barrels and the aging process (storage, maintenance, etc.). Thank you for the information!
You’re definitely seeing prices coming down on the secondary market. So many new bourbons coming to the market that are in some cases better then a lot of these special releases makes choosing what to buy a little more interesting.
Hey Warren! Let's hope the trend of new GOOD bourbons will continue in 2024 with distilleries that did great in 2023 do better in 2024! I'm looking forward to great releases from ASW, 13th Colony, Redwood Empire, Bardstown, Still Austin, etc.! If they start doing some fantastic stuff, maybe I'll stop hunting all together! (probably not, but just saying 🤣). Let's look forward to a fun and exciting year of bourbons in 2024!
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I'm really hoping so and I'm getting into tequila and Irish whiskey
Hey Darrell! That seems to be a good trend among my friends as well and another reason some bourbon prices will likely fall (not all, but some). Let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon to bring back the people in 2024!
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@@WhiskeyBank I bought a tequila ocho reposado it's so good
@@darrellknight4110 Nice! I'll need to look into that one now! 😆
From your lips the distributors and liquor stores. MSRP on so many of these bottles are reasonable IMO. But the limited supply to stores forces owners to price gouge. Took me a year to find Blantons at MsRP and that was through a raffle. My point I guess it prices are one thing but it’s also distribution and the games that are played. Maybe popularity of other spirits could help push some change but I doubt people will start collecting Tequilas to start sipping neat. We shall see!
Hey Keith! I agree with you it's not just stores but distributors that play the game that has increased prices!! I couldn't fit all that into the video as people don't like 40 minute videos 🤣. But if the secondary prices are coming down (especially for tier 2 or 3 bourbons like midwinter's night dram or Hardin's Creek items), that means the "flippers" will stop buying those, which in turn, will keep many bottles on the shelf. It might not be there forever, but it might last a couple weeks before selling. Another example is the 2023 Gatsby Reserve 15 year, since there is no "secondary market" for it as flippers can't flip it for profit, it is just sitting on shelves so far. But as I mentioned, the best or tier 1 stuff will probably not decrease in 2024 due to demand in the US and internationally. You'll be surprised how popular BTAC and Pappy's are in Asia.
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I hope your right
I hope I'm right as well as if the prices keep going up, there is no way I will be able to afford this hobby 😆.
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I've watched the bourbon bubble grow since at least 2010. Distilleries have now had plenty of time to expand. Increased supply and reduced demand will cause the bubble to pop, the same way every other bubble does. The major distilleries know it will eventually happen; that's why there have only been modest price increases of the regular expressions while the prices of LE releases are skyrocketing. Compari/Wild Turkey doesn't want to upset the WT101 buyer, but they know the guys buying the LE stuff will pay dearly and are now pricing it accordingly. BTW, Blanton's was created as an export bourbon back in the '80s in an effort to expand the foreign market when there was then a glut of aged bourbon because Vodka had taken over the spirits market. The foreign market still prefers Scotch, lol. The Blanton's, Rock Hill Farms, ETL, and Hancock Reserve brands are actually owned by Age International which is a subsidiary of a Japanese firm called Takara Shuzo Co.; all are produced under agreement by Sazerac/BT. It's an interesting story and might be worthy of a video.
That is very interesting and did not know about the "brands" being owned by Age International. I will need to look into that. Distilleries are smart and they didn't become this huge corporation without business savvy and knowledge. Distilleries like Wild Turkey has the bourbon and the funds to "squeeze out" smaller distilleries by keeping WT101 at $20 while dominating the premium market as well. Only time will tell what will happen to the bourbon industry and its prices in 2024! Let's just hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024! 😆
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well the good news, I got a Springbank 10 Palo Cortado, the bad news… i paid secondary :( not crazy secondary but secondary nonetheless
Sometimes you got to do what you got to do! 😆. Everybody's "value" of money and a bottle is different and if it was worth it to you to have and enjoy, then it is money well spent! Hopefully the pour matches the price you paid and you enjoy every single drop of that beautiful whiskey that is Springbank 10 Palo Cortada (I never had it, so I would never know 😂).
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Bourbon prices are going to go up and secondary will go down a little. Whatever is going on with this tariff overseas will have an impact as well.either we see higher volume here or they just jack the prices up more
I agree with that. MSRP on many bottles will go up (Stagg, Weller, etc.) but secondary should still come down. Hopefully with the gap decreasing, flippers will be less incentivized to buy them, leaving more for us drinkers. Overseas are hard to predict but bourbon is catching on in Asia for sure. Let's see what happens in 2024 but in the meantime, enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices!
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I’m getting tired of hunting too. More specifically waiting in line at bourbon drops. Came across 4 staggs the other day for $150. Didn’t buy them but I’ve waited in line for hours for stagg at $100. I would rather just pay an extra $50 and not waste a weekend morning, especially if I start seeing stagg at $150 regularly
I agree. The time and money (gas, wear and tear on the car, etc.) you save by not hunting, it'll actually be "cheaper" to buy at $150 rather than $100, especially as we get older and the toll it takes on the body (and mind). And weekend mornings are so precious time we can be spending with family that it is sometimes not worth it anymore. Let's hope prices will come down enough where we can all enjoy our weekend mornings with family and shop for bourbons later!
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@@WhiskeyBank cheers!! Great content!
Hmm, here in Europe I can find most of the regular shelfers already. I am bourbon fan, but actually pretty rare here, as we are close to Scotland. What shocked me, when looking on a map of cities in Kentucky, where bourbon is produced, how many more new rickhouses are under construction.... It is a lot... As there was everything bubble with cheap loans and helicopter money during covid, of course it happened with bourbon too. It is called bullwhip effect, as we basically had a situation, when excess (unearned I say) load of basically free cash was chasing limited amount of goods, prices went up for everything. The point is that this bunch of money is drying up, or already dried up. But the businesses meanwhile invested like crazy, as they got false reading that there is endless demand for the product... As mountain biker I heard recently, that in EU there is huge stockpile of unsold bikes caused exactly by what I described above. Some companies, I heard, plan to completely skip model year 2024 in effort to sell this stockpile... I would be surprised if this does not happen to bourbon too. Of course, not LE and such a stuff....
That is a great insight and a true statement. Working in the financial industry, the increase in interest rate combined with banks struggling to keep deposits, lending has slowed down significantly, which will slow down the economy. The price & demand increase from 2021 to 2023 was too rapid to keep on going, but like you said, companies invested like it would. We'll see how it goes in 2024, but let's hope for some great bourbons at good prices! 🤣
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Nice video!
Thank you! What are your thoughts on bourbon prices? Do you like they will increase or decrease?
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@@WhiskeyBank I think they will dip some this year but the change I am seeing in my area over the last couple months is availability improving. I think 2024 will be more of an improvement of availability and prices will start to fall in Q3 and 4.
@@speedtriprr537 Let's hope you're correct as the prices are too high!! 🤣
Enjoyed the video, didn't know Americans drank Bourdon straight as much as you say. As a Scotsman I mainly drink our whisky, maybe I'll try more American Bourbon just not that expensive.
Hey Lain! There are great bourbons you can hopefully get without spending too much money! Knob Creek 12, Wild Turkey Rare Breed, Jack Daniel's Barrel Proof whiskey, and many others! If you do try some American Bourbon or whiskey, let me know how you like it!
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I think every major distillery is going to have an expression with an MSRP over $200, an expression between $100 and $150, and SKUs working down the price tree from there, simply because whiskey is now a common gift and people want to buy a single bottle as a gift, not a set of bottles adding up to a predicted value.
I also think that anything produced in real bulk will struggle to sell above $85, so there will be downward pressure on prices for expressions with broad distribution. I expect to see distinct price drops on Kentucky Owl, Rabbit Hole, and Barrell, among others. Some smaller operations are going to see real strain because the market is already flooded with 4-year craft product in the $50-$75 range and consumers are going to revert back to heritage bottles that deliver more value. I feel real sympathy for any company looking to launch a new brand in 2024; their timing is not good.
Hey Michael! Great observation and insight into pricing! I agree with you every major distillery will have "special release" or "limited edition" bottles above the $150 with beautiful bottle design and a good story (i.e. Wild Turkey Generations). As long as the quality matches the price increase (i.e. Jack Daniel's special releases, Makers Mark Cellar Aged, etc.), I believe this is a good thing for Bourbons in general as long as the supply is good enough to not inflate the secondary market (basically, make it not worth it for flippers to buy and sell for profit).
I also agree with you on the craft distillery with 4 to 5 year expressions at $50 to $100 range. For instance, Redwood Empire, even though it is good whiskeys, the price point has made it where I don't want to pick up their bottled in bond expressions anymore. It is 5 year old Bottled in Bond whiskeys at ~$90 a bottle, which makes it a hard decision to buy.
Hopefully there will be a good balance between price and quality in 2024 and we will be able to enjoy some good whiskeys at good prices! 😆.
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I think prices will come down and more allocated items will start sitting on shelves. I am tired of hunting and rather buy less and just spend more online for the bottles I want. Rewards programs only benefit those stores and i rather just not build those relationships.
Hey Brian! I feel you and so do so many of my friends who have started doing the same thing! The money they save in not hunting (time, gas, wear and tear on car, buying bottles just to please the owner, etc.) was enough to pay a little extra for the bottles they wanted and more! Many more will go this way as online sites for liquor stores are increasing every day, making it easier to buy allocated bottles at good prices! We'll see what happens in 2024 but in the meantime, let's enjoy some great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices!
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David,
That seems to be be the take from more than a few Tubers for sure. Even though the overall market has not let up yet. I do agree the market is cyclical. What was it as few years ago... Vodka, and before that it was craft beers. Bourbon is running its course right now but just try to buy a bottle of Fortaleza Tequila. The cycle is trending in multiple different directions. Who knows it could be Tequila, rum, or even cognac with the next big push? Someone famous needs to start a rumor that Kool-aid is HOT. Then maybe us non trend setters can set back and enjoy a nice pour without breaking the "Whiskey bank" (see how I did that lol )
Bourbon is (for the most part), a delicious brown consumable liquid that in my opinion (I know others can have opposing opinions) is not worth the price these special releases are bringing. Not when there are so many great pours just sitting on the shelf. Some people have totally lost their minds.
I say this while sipping on 1783, a very nice low budget product that most people seem to have forgotten about.
Another thought provoking video and well researched !
D
Hey Dana! Just like any luxury brand, there is some marketing and "fomo" involved in prices of bourbon and whiskey. Rarity and other factors has to be considered when talking price. A single family home in irvine isn't "better" than one in Victorville if you just see the homes, but obviously Location, weather, desirability, etc. all make it worth more.
Kind of like a George T Stagg. Is better than Elijah craig barrel proof? Or other older, cask strength bourbons? Probably, but the rarity and notoriety of having that bottle increases the value significantly over other "similar" bourbons.
Just like it would a car, a watch, or even handbags. What makes bourbon even more tricky is that it is a consumable, which means supply will decrease over time (most likely at a rapid pace).
It's all fun to analyze but at the end of the day, just enjoying the pour in front of you is probably the best thing you can do 😆.
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Prices will continue to increase since annual inflation will continue at 5-8% averages for several more years.
I'm going to be honest, it is highly unlikely inflation will be above 5% in 2024. Of course it could be, but hard to see it. Money supply is getting tighter and prices of gas (energy) and rent (housing) is slowing down significantly. Only thing keeping the economy afloat right now is government spending but that can't continue at this pace. But we'll see how 2024 goes and in the meantime, drink some good whiskeys at good prices!
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@@WhiskeyBank Thanks for the reply, sounds like you know your stuff. I'm an economist, and work with VISA and big banks, thats how I afford the good bottles lol. Its def expected to be about 5% for the next 5 years with the models, we are planning accordingly.
@@FriarPop oof. If that's the case, I'll need to start buying assets to offset the losses 😆
Bottles that have ridiculously high secondary prices at stores in my area just sit on the shelf. Nobody is gonna pay these insane prices. And now that most of the big brands have started to increase their MSRP because of the high secondary prices, people are even reluctant to buy them at MSRP. It's getting out of hand and something needs to happen.
Hey Silver Punk! If the MSRP increase while the secondary doesn't increase (or even decrease), the gap of profit the "flippers" can make goes down, which will less incentivize flippers to buy them. Of course that would be good & bad news. If Stagg MSRP went to $100 and secondary comes down to $150, you'll probably see Stagg on the shelves for a couple of days instead of being sold out instantly. That means you won't be able to find Stagg at $60 anymore, but at the same time, you won't have to hunt it down. Currently with MSRP at $60 and secondary at $200, that is a lot of profit to be made by "flippers", so that's why they sell out quickly as it's mostly purchased by "non-drinkers".
Let's see how it goes in 2024 and let's hope for some luck on pricing!
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The problem is that there are too many "new collectors" who don't know any better. All they see is pictures of allocated bourbon so they think it's cool to only pursue those bottles and pay a premium for them. Even though they don't drink much and are just around to collect.
Hey Elliot! That is a problem that could exist and for the most allocated bottles (i.e. BTAC), that problem will continue in 2024. But it seems the level below the best bourbons (below Parker's Heritage, Jack Daniel's special releases, etc.) are not doing great as they did previously. Gatsby Reserve 15 year in 2023 are sitting on shelves now, Midwinter Night's dram act 11 is sitting on shelves, even Old Forester and Four Roses Barrel Proof store picks are sitting on shelves for a while before selling out here in my area. Only time will tell so let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024!
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I go tthe peerless for 39.99 the other day, its been that price for months they sait. Knob 12 $47
That's good to hear! Hopefully more and more good shelf bourbons will be affordable and so we don't need to pay high secondary prices or stand in line for the allocated ones! Let's hope for some good luck and prices in 2024!
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Its not only for bourbon, but for other whiskies products too. People will have to go outside their comfort zone and explore other products ( myself included). Yes mistakes will be made but who cares, that's the fun. The two I'm focused on are: Armagnac, and Canadian Whiskies. Armagnacs production are very very tiny, but we can easily find 30 to 50yr old bottles at a very reasonable price. ( ain't selling my car for a 30yr old scotch). Canadian Whiskies are also fun to explore ( aside from Alberta Premium cask strength). Those guys hardly leave the country because they get gobbled up domestically and outdated laws makes it difficult fir shipping. In the end, it's not the end of the world but it's welcoming news that prices are going down for drinkers. It's great that using financial analysis skills to use it on booze right? I use history background to look for undervalued goodies before the crowd comes in.
Hey Adrian! Sometimes it feels like I'm "winning" when I use my "expertise" to get good bottles at good prices 😂. I'm sure I'm losing but if I feel like I won, that's all that matters~ 😆. Canadian whiskies are exciting as well, especially since they are really doing good with transparency to know exactly what I'm drinking. I never tried Armagnacs so I'll have to look into that now😅.
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@@WhiskeyBank We all have different specialties but as long as we use our knowledge and apply to the area that we're exploring, that's a win win situation ( FYI: I hate math but I like history). You'll have a lot of fun exploring Canadian Whiskies, and Armagnacs.
@@Adrian802 I like history and math! 😆 I will try some Canadian and Armagnacs in 2024 for sure! Thanks again!
If you’re gonna take the jump at the scotch, I wouldn’t do it. The prices are just too high versus before. Here’s an example in September 2023 a 15 year Glengoyne scotch was $77. in January 2024 it went to $110. Some of this Scofch pricing is nuts. I saw Towbermory 12 year Scofch that was $77 now jump to $83.
Hey Dean! I'm very careful on what I buy in Single Malts and am trying mostly smaller, lesser known distilleries that haven't got popular enough to increase prices yet. Springbank 10 was a gift so of course that was awesome 😆. We'll see, I'm haven't jumped in the Single Malts yet so it'll be interesting to see what will happen in 2024!
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There's a lot of relatively 'garbage' offerings that are overpriced and these offerings need more experience and they need to refine their products. Other whiskey brands that are more established are releasing unappealing products that hope to trick consumers to buy just because of the brand reputation. Then there are whiskeys that have gradually become unfamiliar to their taste compared to the flavor profile they had years or decades ago. Some brands introduce products that are outrageously over priced and I would not touch them, because it's just a money grab.
At this point, my local region does appear over stocked and I don't think merchants realize a problem, especially if a brand's reputation alters the buying mentality of consumers that used to favor an offering. I do expect some flash sales well below 50% for some brands because they haven't moved in months or well over a year.
I completely agree with you! I have been Old Elk Double Wheat, which was a +$100 bottles, on sale at $60, and it's still not moving!! I mentioned Peerless in my video, but there are so many others now. Liquor stores need to move these bottles for two reasons, first, to get the money to buy other inventory, but second, shelf space is limited and they can't just have bottles sitting there taking space and not making money. So let's hope for some great bourbon going on sale and wait for the allocated bottles to fall in prices 🤣.
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@@WhiskeyBank Thanks for the response. Yes, I agree. The Old Elk whiskey had two of their different bottles drop in price below 50 dollars in a local Vons grocery store at their clearance section. It never sold. What else isn't selling because of outrageous prices are Benchmark bottles, Jack Daniels Frank Sinatra whiskey, Angel's Envy, Puncher's Chance, and Proper 12.
@@fturla___156 so you're saying there is a chance... 🤣
Prices just went up between 2 and 10.
Hey Tom! Prices are area dependent and in the short-term (1 to 3 month span), the prices could increase (or decrease) without reason. I would still venture to say that "overall" prices will decrease by the end of 2024. But like I said in the video, the most popular bottles (Pappy, BTAC, even all of Buffalo Trace in general) will probably not decrease at all (might even increase due to inflation). It is the bottles that are "good" but seems overpriced that will probably come down. I would guess brands like Nulu (with single barrels over $100), Four Gate (with bottles over $200), will have to come down. Look at Old Elk at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024, that has "crashed" as double wheat and four grain (which were going for over $100 each) are now down to $40 to $50 in my area and still not selling out.
It will be interesting to see what happens to prices in 2024, there can be macro economic factors that increase/decrease prices without any factors from the whiskey industry itself.
Nobody know what the future hold for sure and if they did, they wouldn't be making UA-cams videos 😆, so let's just enjoy some good whiskeys in 2024 and see what happens!
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The prices will come down only if the consumers stop over paying! All companies are driven by profits. If the stores can charge whatever they want for a bottle of Bourbon, they will. It's just like ticket scalpers at a concert or sports event. How many people would spend two,three or more times over MSRP for a new vehicle? Think about it.
I agree with you that if people continue to buy at these prices, there is no chance anything will come down. Only trend that I'm seeing in my area is that people are not buying at full secondary prices or some at "retail" prices. You're correct that the most in demand bottles won't come down in price (BTAC, Pappy, Parker's Heritage, etc.), but my belief is that the tier below that has reached a breaking point in prices and with increased competition and other choices, prices will come down from the high of 2023. Will that mean back to 2019? of course not, but lower than 2023? I think (hope) so 😂. Only time will tell and in the meantime, let's enjoy the great bourbons on the shelf at good prices!
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Here’s the problem David. Even if the bourbon that were shelf turds 4yrs ago become readily available. Supply and demand still won’t cover.
Look at the lines at Buffalo trace for literally turds like blantons, eagle rare, even bourbon cream lol.
Distillery owners have watched the beer community ramp up production so much that it’s killed craft beer. Willett doesn’t want to ramp up production when they can charge 300+ on a bottle of bourbon.
Less work more money. It’s simple. Hope this clears things up.
I agree with you that is a problem. But a "solution" to that is competition. If only the big distilleries were in the market, then you'll be 100% correct. What killed the craft beer was not just over production from the big guys, but also with so many "local" breweries popping up every single day it seemed here in Southern California. It is happening in Bourbon, but not as fast as it is much easier and faster to brew beer than it is to distill and age whiskey. We'll see, I did say that one reason prices might not decrease is that these distilleries will focus on special releases or limited editions (especially high aged ones) that smaller distilleries just can't compete with as they don't have a supply of 10+ year old whiskeys on hand. We'll see how it goes in 2024 and it'll be fun! (hopefully 😆).
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I agree. Reminds me of what the car manufacturers have done the last 2 years. Limit production on purpose to increase and justify the pricing. Looking at you Ford and Chevy.
@@TheUMIA that's a great comparison. I still can't believe the lots at dealerships are empty as they continue to price hike. Doing it on purpose for sure 😫
@@WhiskeyBank I as a consumer do wish that prices would come back to reality. I do miss eagle rare being 25 bucks and on the shelf 😂. I also don’t mind paying a premium for a craft distillery.
Tbh, I just want good bourbon. The current market has gotten me to try things I’d pass on. Weller special reserve was my go to cocktail bourbon. I’ve since shifted to rye for cocktails. Then they came for sazz. Now I buy a local rye that while I wouldn’t drink neat it’s perfect for cocktails.
@@oxpowz Same here! Let's just hope for some more good bourbons at good prices in 2024! 😆
I'm done buying bourbon. Tequila is my number one now. Fortaleza has been difficult to find now.
Agree with this. Now is the time to get your Tequila purchases in before the market gets jacked. Only one spot in my area has Fortaleza at $70 qty 4.
@TheUMIA you see, and the price should be 50 bucks a 5th. Tequila ocho is close to Fortaleza. The price of tequila has been slowing rising. It's becoming the new bourbon as far as prices.
That's a good idea and hopefully the prices will come down and allocation will get better so you come back to Bourbons in 2024! In the meantime, let me know which blanco tequila I should get that's non-additive to get my journey started! 😆
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Yeah, that Fortaleza has been hard to find in my area. I have been trying to get a blanco for a while so no luck. 😂
@WhiskeyBank I found some in Boston. But here in Florida nope.
One way to affect the price of bourbon in the U. S. A. is for the millions of bourbon drinkers to reduce their home inventory by one third. This could allow hundreds of millions of bottle of bourbon to remain in retail inventory, thereby increasing supply and lowering demand. Basic economics dictates when both supply increases and demand decreases price will drop. 🥃
I submit that fifty years ago the percentage of the population that were bourbon drinkers was likely similar to the last five years, but the behavior of many if not most changed. It changed in that many or most bourbon drinkers today have fifty (or more) bottles of bourbon in their homes; where in the past bourbon drinkers had maybe five bottles in their home. That difference of 45 bottles times ten or twenty million bourbon drinkers reduces the retail inventory by 450,000,000 to 900,000,000 bottles! If bourbon drinkers reduced their home inventory by one third, it would have a huge effect on prices! 💰
You are absolutely correct! There are ton of factors I wanted to address, but with this being a UA-cam video and not a seminar, I had to keep it short 😆.
The buying will slow down in 2024. Even if the "bottle count" doesn't change, people are not increasing their bottles at home. So if they just stay at 50, new purchases will slow down significantly as most people drink about a bottle a month.
Inventory is set to increase with many distilleries that expanded years ago and with new distilleries (or smaller distilleries) pumping out more and more whiskey everyday!
It'll be a very fun and interesting year of bourbon in 2024! Let's see what happens!
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Personally I just enjoy the different bourbons and I’m not a big fan of the secondary market. if that continues
, will it push consumers away is my question. These distilleries are not setting these ridiculous prices.
Hey Russ! Distilleries are not "setting" the msrp high on the allocated bottles but "award" them to distributors who buy and sell more of their "other" spirits. Remember, Sazerac who owns Buffalo trace, also sell Wheatley Vodka, fireball, and Corazon Tequila (and many others), which are easier and faster to make. So they reward distributors who buy more of that stuff. In turn distributors pressure liquor stores to buy more of those products to be able to buy the allocated bourbons.
This is why the liquor stores either sell it in bundles or increase prices or keep them for VIPs as they need to move those regular bottles.
It's a lot more complicated than just "stores are selling it at above msrp because they're selfish".
I could have made a 1 hour documentary on this but I don't have the equipment or editing skills to do so 😆.
We'll see what happens in 2024 but hopefully allocation will get better and we all will get our hands on a bottle we want!
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I've been at this since the 1990s. I like many types of booze and don't specialize in one thing. It has been interesting to watch over the years. When I see something get hyped through the roof, I typically run the other way. Jumping on the hype train is a great way to waste time and money. If the mob becomes obsessed with one particular bottle of rotgut, there is always something else good that has escaped the attention of the crowds. I refuse to wait in a line for a bottle of booze, especially for a bourbon (Blanton's, for example) that is good quality but rather unremarkable. Blanton's was a reasonably good choice when it sat on store shelves and sold for about $50, but the frenzy that surrounds it now is absurd. I've tried many of the mid-level allocated bottles, and with few exceptions, I find them to be good but unremarkable middle-of-the-road bourbons, and I have a hard time understanding why they are so absurdly popular. Maybe Buffalo Trace products aren't such a great match for my preferences. If so, then I can consider myself fortunate since I feel no desire to hunt for them.
The bourbon boom might be showing some signs of cooling off, but unless there is a major economic disruption, it seems like it will gradually slow down rather than fall off a cliff. It seems like a lot of people are getting tired of hunting. If enough people stop going after the bottles that everyone seems to want, maybe supply and demand will come back into balance, and it will be possible to find them for a price that is in line with their quality.
Over the next few years, tequila will be interesting to watch. I see some similarity to the early stages of the bourbon boom. Fortaleza has disappeared from store shelves, and some offerings from other distilleries are getting hard to find as well. Sadly, I think this situation is likely to spread like a cancer in the tequila market and cause other good bottles to become allocated and hard to find. I'm glad I have a lot of tequila now, so if it goes nuts like bourbon, my supply will last me a while. Like bourbon, tequila production is inelastic. Agave plants need a long time to mature, and there is only so much land available for cultivation. If demand suddenly spikes, supply can't catch up.
Hey Heather! Thank you for a well thought out and fun to read comment! 😆. Really do appreciate the sincere comment 🙏.
I agree with you the price decline (if there is any) will be gradual throughout the year. When I talk about 2024, I'm talking about until December 2024, not the first month of the year 😆. But unless something unexpected happens (pandemic, war, etc.), I would see prices "overall" decrease. Obviously some of the crazier ones (BTAC, limited or special releases) will be exceptions.
Other spirits are getting a look, but I am not sure on the credibility of the increasing trend yet. Is it a fad? Is it to be ahead of the curve? Or will it last?
Only time will answer these questions 😅.
I guess all we can do is enjoy the bottles we have and the ones we can get at a price we can afford 😆.
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Bitcoin is the real savings vehicle. Iykyk triple entry accounting iykyk
Bourbon is the daily vacation 🎉🎉🎉
Hey! Sorry to disappoint you but I'm in the Warren Buffett camp that Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value 😆. Obviously it has value and I have been missing out but we'll see. Triple entry accounting should be used in all government agencies for transparency 😁.
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@@WhiskeyBankintrinsic Value is a fallacy. VALUE is subjective to the individual. Money few print out of thin air we all have to work for is no store of value to bitcoiners. Study it don't be an ostrich 🎉🎉🎉
@@WhiskeyBankthere is no 'government ' just individuals following FIAT incentives
What would happen to bourbon if all the white oak trees get cut down. The demand for white oak to make barrels has increased the price of white oak.
Hey Thomas! That would not be good for bourbon prices for sure 😆. From what I know, there is plenty of white oak for now and it is one of the fastest growing trees so hopefully they can get ahead of the curve and start planning for it now so there is no issues in the years to come.
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Choose your words carefully. You may have to back step your predictions. The allocated bottles aren't coming down in price. As long as there are, people who will continue to pay the ridiculous secondary prices. JMO
That is the fun of predictions, I can be right and I can definitely be wrong 🤣. I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again 😆. I agree with you to a certain extent that the most collectible and rare bourbons will not go down in price (BTAC, Pappy, Birthday bourbon, KoK, etc.), but others will either come down in price or be more available (which will lower secondary or aftermarket prices). Of course this will heavily depend on your area as I'm lucky to be where there is a lot of allocation of good bourbons.
We'll see how it goes and you may be right and the prices don't come down, but let's hope I'm right and prices do come down 😀.
Thanks for watching and have a great day!
Wise words from the bourbon whisperer 😂
That's the first time I got called a bourbon whisperer 🤣. I do hope I'm right about this one as bourbon prices were way too high in 2022 and 2023. It seems there needs to be a correction so we can all enjoy some great whiskeys at good prices. Let's hope for a fantastic 2024!
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Increase. Nothing ever goes down in price except for gas.
Well, gas coming down would lower my hunting expenses 🤣. We'll see how it does in 2024. Prices increased so rapidly in 2021 to 2023 that there might be a correction in prices, which would mean it be a little lower than 2023 levels, but still higher than 2020 for sure.
Let's hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024 with many new releases and small distilleries doing some great stuff!
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Hope it does drop so I can't get some of them😂🙏🙏
Hey Robert! 🤣 but if it drops, that means it's sitting on the shelf so maybe you will get a chance at one! Supply is increasing for sure (not all allocated bottles but for many they are). So let's hope for a great 2024 for bourbons and in the meantime, drink some good whiskeys while we wait for the prices to come down (hopefully 😆).
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Burbon will might go down Also more people are getting into tequila and it’s price has been going up
Hey Marco! That is so true! I tried to find a Fortaleza Blanco the other day as I heard good things and it was impossible to find. More competition the better so let's hope for more great spirits and bourbons in 2024!
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Let’s be clear here, MSRP will not be falling at all, period. These companies have too much invested to start lowering price. The only prices that you will see down are secondary and what I refer to as primary gougers (retailers that charge over MSPR) A few dollars is one thing, but when you’re pricing Eagle Rare at $100 and BT at $50, well, go F yourself. And everyone is mad that Campari is setting MSRP so high on their special releases and has doubled the price of RR13. Well, guess what? You only have yourself to blame. Anytime you buy secondary price on a bottle, you’re just encouraging the distilleries to raise prices. And wait until these emerging markets overseas start to buy whisky from the US on a regular basis like Japan. The availability in the US is gonna get even tighter.
You could be correct and if all those come true, prices will not come down one bit. But remember, if secondary prices come down and there is less of a "profit" to make from MSRP to secondary, flippers will be less incentivized to buy, which leaves more for drinkers. Also, imagine if Stagg secondary came down to $150, you think this won't affect pricing for Old Carter and Four Gates at $200+? How many people will now buy Stagg instead of a Four Gate? And etc. etc. The domino effect of secondary coming down can't be underestimated. But you're right and as I mentioned, international opportunities are there and if the distilleries choose to do so, it would decrease supply significantly. Let's see what happens in 2024 and in the meantime, enjoy the great whiskeys on the shelf at good prices!
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@@WhiskeyBank Secondary prices coming down don’t factor into Marc and Sherry Carter’s price schedule or Four Gate or anyone else for that fact. Those places are NDP and many times they have to buy juice from a middle man instead of direct from the distillery. They spend a lot on juice to blend and it’s gonna cost you to buy it. Also, they’ve only been in business since 2019. With most of those Covid years, know ones knows who’ll survive a real time market. Four Gate was at $200 msrp, old Carter $150, and 3 Chord at $200 3 years ago when you could still get Stagg Jr, ECBP, and EH Taylor small batch and single barrel at msrp btw that 15yo 3 Chord was from Beam and it was the same juice that was going into knob creek single barrel picks.
@@docscout You could be right, I could be right, but let's just hope for a fun and exciting year of bourbon in 2024! 😆. Prices will go up and down, left and right, and it'll ultimately be up to the consumers to see what happens.
I hope prices drop
Hey Kevin! So do I! Honestly the most demand bottles probably won't (btac, Pappy, stagg, etc.) But hopefully the others will! There are still good bottles out there that are expensive 🤣.
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굿 한국에서 삼촌이
고맙습니다 삼촌! 😆
Crash all the bourbon bros have been pushing tequila videos lately
Hey Douglas! Yeah, it seems they have been pushing tequila and rum lately on a lot of their channels. It seems the views are high as well as there isn't as much competition in the UA-cam space for those as well. Competition is always good for prices and quality as well. Hopefully this will decrease prices in bourbon but also increase the quality that they have to put in bottles to have us spend our hard earned cash! 😁
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You didn't account for morons with too much money that will buy it at whatever price so they can be "in the club" of people that like whiskey. If I see one more post of someone's "collection" that is nothing but BTAC derivatives, I'm gonna puke. There are a ton of other options that are way better and much cheaper.
Hey CW! I agree and that's why I said BTAC and Pappy (and other greatly collectable) bottles probably won't decrease in 2024. It is very collectable and a "show off" piece, even if they don't drink it. But I'm thinking everything else below it (even Stagg and EH Taylors) will decrease in 2024 (not a lot, but some). But that will have a domino effect on other bourbon prices as if you go to a liquor store and buy Stagg at $150, who is going to buy Old Carter and Four Gate at $250? Not many, so they'll need to lower prices, etc. We'll see what happens in 2024, but in the meantime, let's drink the good whiskeys on the shelf the collectors don't buy! 😄
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Great video, David. You especially nailed my sentiments when it comes to hunting certain allocated bottles. I've had it up to here with the constant games playing and hoops jumping.
The small stores where I've gotten to know the owners, those places might get 1-2 BTACs or PVWs. Even as a good customer, I can't expect to be one of the lucky recipients of those bottles. They probably have a dozen or more other good customers to take care of.
As for the large grocery chains that receive the majority of the rare allocations, either the managers are keeping it all for themselves and their buddies, or they use a loyalty club/raffle system. They also experience a high degree of employee turnover, so you might see sudden and unexpected changes in how they handle allocations if the new manager decides to switch things up. It's all so tiresome and frustrating, lol. Again, great job on this video, and cheers!🥃✌️
Thank you so much for the awesome compliment! This was fun video to make and doing the analysis was also exciting to see what results I will get. Economic trends on luxury goods are slowing rapidly around the world and whiskeys are a luxury good, so I would expect the same thing. And just comments from you and others in the section, it seems many people are sick of hunting and playing the games. I guess only time will tell what will happen, but let's sit back, relax, and look forward to fun and exciting year in bourbon in 2024!
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the fact is year on year the demand for whisky-bourbon is down about 5% and only the very very high end is there more demand than supply. Even the Buffalo Trace distilery that likes to keep high demand and low inventory is seeing a big down tic in the more base offerings.. you can now find the bottom 25$ Buffalo Trace on the shelves everywhere like before the bourbon boom. The secondary market is slowly comming down to earth. Just saying.. the specialty market will always sell out limited tiny releases at premium prices.. but that is not where the backbone or meat of the market.. the daily drinkers just want a good 30ish dollar bourbon they can walkin and walkout with.. the rest is just HYPE for COLLECTORS.. thats like .0001% of the public ... statisticly irrelevant and are there for MARKET HYPE.. like we make the best so-and-so.. so, yah the BOURBON BOOM IS OVER... further more.. the MGP or brands that poped out of nowhere marketing whisky they did not distil or age, just bought it from MGP and sells for 90$ will go away.. disappear and relieve the shelves of over hyped over priced juice. Some consolidation will be in the next few years.. I agree with your essential conclusions, the RARE Hype labels will still be hard to obtain, but thats a problem for the label whores .. most prices are already comming down or daily drinkers like Wild Turkey 101.. cheap and great pour.
Hey Mike! Great analysis! It seems into the beginning of February, that trend has continued where more "overpriced" items that used to fly off the shelves are not selling as fast (Highwest Midwinter's, Remus Gatsby 15 year old, etc.). Hopefully this will help many good whiskeys at $100+ come down to the more affordable $50 to $60. Let's keep the trend going in 2024!
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One local liquor store in my area celebrated the new year by increasing their bourbon prices. So I gave them a NY salute, 🖕, and said 👋.
Yeah, it seems some liquor stores are still stuck in 2022 and think people will buy at any prices like they did that year. They don't seem to do any market analysis or even competition search to see what they are dealing with. Oh well, there are bad business owners everywhere and liquor stores are no exception. There is one close to my home where they started charging 3.5% credit card fee for all transactions. Let's just say I won't be going there anymore 🤣.
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@@WhiskeyBank Oh sure thing. I appreciate the information and subscribed. Cheers!
@@yanksrule311 thanks again so much!