I’d Rather Be A Bull with David Rosenberg | Stock Market Investing & Trading Podcast
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- Опубліковано 1 чер 2024
- On this episode of “On The Tape,” David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Dan Nathan and Guy Adami for the full show! Topics they hit include what the bears got wrong about the stock market, market concentration, liquidity, the AI boom comparisons to the dot com bubble, the read on the broader market, the move in commodities, did the Fed f’ up?, why it’s not always about the economy, what could cause a pullback in equities, and the potential for a currency crisis.
Timecodes
0:00 - What We Missed
6:55 - Valuations
10:50 - Dry Powder
15:00 - Gen AI
26:15 - Macro View
35:30 - Fed F'd Up?
38:45 - Commodities
42:50 - Inflation
47:30 - Currency Conundrum
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About the Show:
On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.
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Brilliant episode - thanks 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
I’m a god of devaluation, I buy it and it goes down! Why I can't make earnings is beyond me. It can be annoying how volatile the market is. How can I ride this fresh wave of all-time highs without getting burned again with $450k set aside to get fully invested this year?
from my study, 90% of the time in an election year, the stock market stays positive for quite a long time. 2024 is no exemption, but it is better to be guided, ideally by a well experienced and licensed advisor
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from Amber Dawn Brummit to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
My needs are kind of unique and complex. I'll contact her nonetheless, and I hope I'm able to make something out of it.
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.
These guys have done a lot of things in life, making money for anyone is not one of them
By the time you guys are right a 20% correction will be 20% higher than when you started being bearish.
i think the rally is a scam, but i have to go long.
it's peer pressure.
In most leading stocks is already well passed that in the 30-50% range while these clowns wait for a "correction" to get in... losers 😂
So the market will be lower than it is now lol
Inverse Dan Nathan to make consistent gains every year! Thank you
"The repetitive nature of financial market dynamics is evident. Artur Grandi's book outlines a practical approach to stabilizing investments and identifies opportunities for investment, including in the cryptocurrency space."
60 minutes of trying to justify a bear stance 🥴
Watching guys trying to rationalize why they've been wrong!😂
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly.Thanks Kathleen Chandler.
You trade with Kathleen Chandler too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
What impresses me most about Kathleen Chandler is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
fxannchandler 💯 ..that's it
Most people are retiring this year and has nothing to show for. But I assure you it’s never late to get your financial life together again.. All thanks to Kathleen Chandler for I and my family
I am a client of Rosie’s research and pay his firm $4K a year. He’s been so wrong, both on macro and the markets. I departed from his recommendations last May. At this point, I use his bearishness as a gauge to fade.
lol he charges 4K a year for his permabear bullshit?
@@robchen6803 I actually enjoy his writing and the guests he interviews on his webcasts. I disagree with half of those whom I pay for advice. The reason is so I don’t live inside an echo chamber. I disagree with the guys who do this podcast. Which is why I subscribe to them. I need to get inside the mind of those whom I disagree with so can understand where they are coming from and what the weaknesses in their arguments are.
3 broken clocks
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. What are your thoughts on this? I'm contemplating investing more than $300k. While this can generate short-term excitement, their long-term impacts can be unpredictable.
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I used to depend on UA-cam videos but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
*Vivian Louise Dehoff* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Hasn't Dan been a bear for over a year now, that I know of. He's always bearish and the market just keeps going up. Interesting, 🤔
Imagine the hubris required to have the market tell you how massively wrong you are for 18 months and still thinking you’re right…🤦♂️
sounds like white male privilege
“They are probably on the white powder” 😂😂😂😂 This Rosenberg is gangsta!!
A very sore loser "gangsta" he is probably on a lot of stuff with his permabear research being so wrong for years now...
"permabear angry market going up" - saved u 57 min
100% correct!...lol
Greetings gentlemen. I just found this site of yours. You two guys, and Dan (who currently is missing) were some of my favourite financial commentators I used to listen to on CNBC. I found your comments to always be full of sound financial common sense. I cut the cord 5 or 6 years ago. Its nice you lot have decided to run this channel. Also it was great to see David Rosenberg on. The most important thing that I really enjoy is listening to all of you for an hour, not sound bites, but an hour without interruption. I will never go back to the cord, but I will be back checking out your older videos and your up and coming videos.
one of the best podcasts i've listened to this year - well done guys
Fantastic episode, a real heaping of insight and common sense. Thanks Team RR!
Would love to see Tom Lee debate Rosey
30:00 Rosenburg: it is a momentum market pushing stocks up (not fundamentals or valuation).
A bubble/mania is also when folks start borrowing to buy. We haven't had that since 1998/1999. So no...not a bubble. Just expensive.
I've always enjoyed the commentary by Dan and Guy, and they have a great dynamic together. The KEY message the market is sending, that a lot of financial/CNBC 'talking heads' completely miss - is that market participants are figuring out that the fiscal spending across the globe and sovereign debt is growing exponentially. 90%+ of this is funding strictly by monetary expansion (ie. debasing the currency), so in those conditions scarce assets go up as they are all priced in one or another government currency (with USD as 👑) or another. Thus, stocks, particularly growth stocks are being used a store of value to park wealth. So long as the credit market doesn't break in the interim, assets float up 🤷♂. The scarcest, high liquidity assets with fantastic narratives (most desirable) go up the most. That's it.
One needs to realize this and only get bearish at absolute peak Euphoria, as in "mania type levels". That is not now...
So what is the conclusion?
😂 Lol, seriously, he didn't mention once what someone could/should do if they agree with all this fear. Maybe once he mentioned he was bullish on bonds?
I believe what Rosie is missing is the massive increase in Fed printing and Government spending since 2008. US debt $10 tril to $34 tril now. Fed B/S $800 bil - $7.5 tril. US M2 $7 tril to $21 tril. All since 2008. Rosie a very smart guy and 100% right with fundamentals but liquidity trumps everything. Japan had an overvalued P/E of 24 that went to a P/E of 40 at Nikkei peak at $40K in 1999 because of continuous massive M2 increase. Jeffrey Gundlach points out M2 still way above trend despite QT of $1.5 tril. Follow the money.
Agreed. M2 peaked in December 2022. 2020-2022 period, M2 increased somewhere between 25% and 30%. Its now slowly coming down. The question is what will the Fed do in the future, and the Fed's actions speak far louder than their words. Watch what the Fed does, not what is says. Oh, and watch out for the black swan event. We are ripe for one.
Rosie is the new Gartman
Grantham at least comes off intelligent and cuorious. Rosie seems more like a know-it-all.
@@samyueldanyo8679 Dennis Gartman not Jeremy Grantham.
This was great
What do you invest in that’s better
Excellent discussion. Thank-you
Davie "Rosie" is the biggest permabear besides Jeremy Grantham and both of them have been INCREDIBLY ABSOLUTELY WRONG for literally 10+ years
Well I respect your caution on market level, I could not understand why population growth is not a driver for corporate profit growth and economic expansion. In fact, population growth (and demographic) is one of the most important driver for aggregate demand and by extension economic growth.
Good discussion. PS - DR, did you do this interview in the Khazi?
Intelligent discussion. Thanks
21 multiple does account for devaluation because of liquidity pumped into the system by governments. 1$ now is not 1$ in the future it's less value so the multiple can't decrease long term the multiple/expansion must increase to offset the devaluation of the dollar due to excessive liquidity spent by governments
All this guy does is whine lmao, wah wah wah
Watched this whole thing, now I want to Sell everything 😂
without trying at least forecast when this "bubble" bursts, the debate is useless to everyone - both long and shorts. At least Mike Wilson tried to have some timeframes , whether right or wrong. Maybe we can ask chat gbt to forecast when will all data centers be upgraded and demand for llm related chip sales start to decline? Better than debating bubble or no bubble.
I'm outta of here. Enough is enough. Later.
They became a joke I agree
@30:00 that is so true
How can you be bearish on stocks when the Fed is about to cut with low unemployment and high inflation? Cash is trash.
Broken Clock (Guys) Show
Another great guest. Thank you.
3 bears 💩 the bed
Gay bears 😂
@@HAMZZZ1985😂😂😂
Can stocks just go higher because of supply vs demand? How much money is chasing how many shares?
Pretty much why we’ve been in this crazy squeeze lately. Money supply.
@@Hsg1553shouldn’t the money supply have decreased with rate hikes?
These guys are boring. Have nothing interesting to say.
Guys, can you bring Peter Schiff to your podcast some time - would be an interesting conversation.
Peter Schiff is the GOAT fade
Also Harry Dent & Robert Kiyosaki lol
@@rvpcqpnot rich man poor dad. He's a loon
@@rvpcqp Jim Richards
They could all gloom and doom together…beyond losing…
I'd love to invest in stocks after listening to a guy on a podcast talk about the importance of investing and how he made over $300k in few months of investing into stocks from $175k initial capital, somehow this video has helped shed light on some things but I'm confused about the current market volatility I'm new to this and I'm open to ideas.
It's difficult to beat the market as an ordinary investor, you don't have access to information that professionals have. So it's just better if you invest with a professional who knows how things work better.
That's right, I started investing sometime in 2019 and by early 2019 I pulled a profit of over $800k with no prior investing knowledge or skill I was basically just following the guidelines set by my financial advisor, despite the current market volatility I return at least $75k every month so you don't necessarily need to be a perfect investor or do the hard works, just have an advisor to guide you.
Interesting! been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now but the fear of losing funds held me back, please any help pointing me to who your advisor is and how to reach them?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Thanks for this amazing tips, I found her webpage and booked a call session with her, she seems proficient.
I agree with Rosie 100%. Maybe we're early, maybe we're wrong. But multiple expansion can't go on forever.
You are a genius and not making any money. LOL
I wish you could have given a less 'triggered' explanation of why 'dry powder' is a bad argument. The pig farmers example made no sense. Also, fomo doesn't exist in bonds bc that's safe haven. I respect your insight but your defense of your arguments is pretty weak
Your logic that earnings are up 4% and S&P is up 30% doesn’t take to the account that the markets were oversold at the time so you can not say we had eight multiples since last November, thanks
how is cash on the sidelines not helpful? anytime there has been anything close of a dip people put their money to work.
but if i take my $1000 and buy stock from you, you now have cash and I have stock. same amount of "cash on sideline" its a total canard....
Also the cash in the sidelines might invest in something else.
I agree that eventually this will end badly but it could be in a week or it could be in 5 years. No one knows. I will follow price until the market tells me its time to get out & right now there is no sign of that. Economics will only take you so far.
Just DCA and never look back
Don’t hear many financial analysts talk about the fact that unemployment is low, more folks than ever are currently contributing to 401Ks. How many look at multiples when they invest in their retirement accounts? What are the top ten percent of funds that benefit from contributions in retirement accounts? And their multiples?
David Rosenberg is simply the best. Great get!
The Fed SHOULD raise rates after the election
No, is going to go down a lot
Just “tuned out” this 🐻 promoter.
At the top everyone is a genius with hindight at the bottom no one is crowing.
I feel like the only intelligent human in the room. It's inflation, that's what the market is anticipating. Inflation cycles last 5 to 20 years. We're in year 2.... if you think things are expensive now just wait. But the kicker is people can actually afford it. Unless your a single/low income worker. But most "middle class" Americans are balling right now. As long as hourly wages continue to rise so shall the market. Your welcome now go make some money.🙃
I actually think I'm wealthier than you 3 combined haha been long for 15 years. Pretty easy
Can u interview an economist who is younger than David? In 40s have 25+ yrs to retirement. Old folkes are always dire hence term "grumpy old men". Happens to us all as we age, outlooks becomes negative.
The day Cisco missed was trading at 140 Forward PE, NVDA is trading at 34 today, you're years away from that clown David Rosenberg, also we printed more money last 14 years then 50 years combined before 08, so expect to see NVDA 240-340 forward PE before bubble is over in next few years ;) Math doesn't care about your feelings David.
Per Mortgage Bankers Association - the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 1.52 percent, matching the lowest level since 1984. It remained unchanged from last quarter and decreased by 37 basis points from last year.
What was your composite indicator for serious investors flashing throughout 2023 , while you ( and I) were bearish ?
Rosenberg has been bearish for as long as I've listened to him....and that's over 20 years....lol.
Yay Guy! Boo Dan...
how many times will Dan say "somebody jammed one too many ads on Yahoo" lol unbelievable
No actually, THIS WAS as echo chamber. The only thing Dan pushed back on was the bullish point that Rosie made about inflation already being at 2 lol. Clown show
Its important to stay wrong
BTW The Buffett Indicator is Flashing Red !
For all the criticism you get in the comments, you still get a lot of views.
Bears got absolutely destroyed, interest rates at 5%, debt up by trillions and stocks are partying like it's QE and ZIPR.I admit, I did not see it coming.The tail is wagging the dog now, stock market is bigger than the economy, recession won't happen if stocks don't go down. Stock markets around the world all going parabolic, $nikk, $dax, $cac even Spain, Greece and Italy. What is going on?
rose is a dope
It’s another bear party. Save you time: they say sell everything again like they have been for over a year.
Did Guy quote Paul Thorn?
Is this guy on his toilet?
Rosy is never rosy 😮
Apparently in 2007 my Merrill Lynch broker didn't get David's memo...
All you cocky complacency people commenting are about to get served some humble pie and your own bubbles gonna explode. No wonder they call retail traders dumb money! Everyone said Rosie was wrong in 2007 also! LMAO 99% cocky retail traders have maxed credit cards, but make a few % on paper and think they are a stock trader guru, yet pay 22% interest payments. SMH
Hey, losers 😂
4 Trillion in stimulus this year
Most of these comments are from ‘triggered’ bulls! Look guys, it’s great if you’re making a ton of money. Good for you! But you should learn to listen to reasoned thought. The market is anything but reasoned ATM. This could be a Wile E Coyote moment. Not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. And Yes, and that may me a little triggering.
Hyperventilating about 10% corrections or 20% bear markets is for traders and the newly retired without enough cash/bond buffer for sequence of returns risk.
I've modeled the family portfolios going through a great recession (down 30%, dividends cut in half) and we're fine. It doesn't take a lot of cash/bonds to cover a few years worth of bad times, during which you can adjust a lot of spending down, if necessary. It's a good place to be financially. Edit: It affords you a lot less worry and staying long for longer, which ultimately means more fully participating in equity returns, which have no peer.
Would be great to have doug kass on your podcast again.
I'm at 2x speed and still seems really slow, just regurgitating valuation complaints. If you hate the stock market, then freaking talk about the market of stocks and talk about what's on sale or what you like or what are you actually doing. This was just a bunch of lame whining.
Yes, he mentioned energy, utilities, and something else I can't remember because he never spoke of them again. Wish he had turned the conversation there.
At the very, very end he espoused his swing for singles, don't get bowled over philosophy and... that's great, I am very in line with that. So I wish you had spent 60 minutes talking about the pitches you are swinging at, instead of complaining about the pitcher!
Do u need a professional UA-cam thumbnail designer?
What is the best way to make money from crypto investment as crypto is turning around massively.?
I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached
I personally employ Ms. Evelyn Turner as my t'rader. Her ability to t'rade and produce big pro:fits, in my opinion, is excellent.
Yeah that's right I think the best way is to invest with a professional, at least it saves the trauma of too much losses.
@@user-sj5yw6fo6h
Really you actually knew her?I thought I was the only one she has helped me through the fears and falls of trading
Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 3k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 25 k. She is very remarkable!
This dude knows his stuff.
Great episode!
What stuff????????
@@hafeld8348Common Sense, Wisdom..
Why won’t you guys buy heavy puts for SPY and QQQ for January of 2026 or March of the same year or 2027 if they sell them if you really believe we are in a huge bubble? you probably going to make a killing if you really believe in that, for me I do have some hedges on SPY but I’m pretty much long for as long as the Fed is in the process of cutting rates, the anticipation in my opinion is making the market to grind up and the presidential year, thank you again
Remember the Metaverse hype from a few years back...
NVDA: 5 customers represent more than 2/3 of their revenue
but AI will save market...
"Zoom has opted to add artificial intelligence features into its premium video-calling plans at no additional cost."
such arrogance from David. he's been wrong for a very long time.
david has been a bear for sooo long and wrong I am sorry I cannot listen to anymore...
STOCKS NEVER GO DOWN