No Fear of Bear Markets For
Вставка
- Опубліковано 26 вер 2024
- Dan Nathan is joined by Josh Brown and Michael Batnick of Ritholtz Wealth Management. You might know them better from Josh’s regular appearances on CNBC and their podcast The Compound and Friends. On today’s special pod drop, the guys are talking about the anticipation of Fed rate cuts, the state of consumer credit, Why U.S. Stocks So Expensive, investors using their 401k as a savings vehicle, Dan’s concerns around Nvidia and the AI bubble and creating financial focused content.
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About the Show:
MRKT Call is a daily video series with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami and Dan Nathan. They’re offering their sound takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth technical analysis, trading tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.
We provide you with up to date technical analysis on the stock market's top names. We also take a look at the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and provide actionable information on commodities and treasuries.
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Love this collab 🎉
Same🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Same here
Fantastic 🎉
Yes pls bring these 2 back
Dan's reason for breathing is extracting bearish thesis of any subject.
Give him a break. Being fat with a big nose puts one at a negative disposition
That's because the bulls are retarded. But God loves the meek. He lets them win, he encourages their trust and faith in upward growth because that is the natural order of things. Bears are realists who wait for their moment.
He's fat and his nose is huge
He is a proper doomer. I am not even that bullish, but still disagree with his apocalyptic point of view .
Dan and guy tell you what to watch out for … regardless I buy low and sell high it’s my duty to make money and listen to all the bulls and bears …
Great argument. Dan was tested today on his perma bear mindset.
“We aren’t scared of a bear market son!” lol. Finally someone tells permabear to his face!
22:45 Ratios are historically high now because we went from railroads and oil and manufacturing conglomerates to high margin high growth tech making up the majority of the indexes. Those obviously demand much higher ratio valuations.
Super underrated comment. If you look at sector PEs for stocks 50 years ago and those still in SPY it’s going to be marginally higher at best. Companies are so much better run now than they were 50 years ago.
I was wondering when this collaboration was going to happen. Gotta love these guys. The compound and friends number 1.
It's beyond imagination how Dan is not tired of his own bearishness. Amazing creativity to find new arguments all the time. Very funny.
Batnick yelling at Dan Nathan is gold
no, Batnick is an idiot...doesn't look or talk the part.
Only thumbs up for this video because Josh is the guest 😂
😂
I appreciate Josh's argument that this isn't your grandfather's S&P 500. Yes, if you look back 50+ years, then the current S&P 500 is in another galaxy now. But guess what, even if you chop off everything before 2018 and only look back 6 years, then the current level of the market is still 20% overpriced versus recent history! I'm not saying it's going to crash tomorrow; in fact this rally will probably last a bit longer, but P/E's will come back down to Earth at some point. Even Josh has acknowledged that the market has already priced in several years worth of growth. I think anyone jumping in now is most likely going to wind up being the bag holder.
You may be true but they said the same shit in 2010 and 2015.
@@voicification And they were too early in saying that. It's not too early now.
Amen Josh on the comments about eating out all the time.
I'm putting "We're not afraid of bear markets son" on a t-shirt.
Seriously. Any time the market drops 20% I'm flipping the couch looking for quarters to dump into the market. Down another 20% from there? I'm eating black coffee for breakfast, work snacks for lunch, nothing for dinner, & picking up pennies from the street to put more into UPRO.
Josh is right about incomes and expectations creep and blah blah blah. All of that is true. But new home ownership hasn't been this unaffordable in 40+ years. That dwarfs everything else.
Housing was unaffordable from 2007-2015. cities through out the country had a glut of REO and short sale properties for multiple years. Whoever had money made a killing. that's not 40+ years!
Risk Reversal Media: "We've been on the sidelines since the start, this pod is our cope" 🎉😂🎉
im pretty sure they are both fully invested thru all this
This is the crossover we needed
Batnick summed it up perfectly - "Over the last 15 years, anyone that said anything about valuations lost money". Bears, please learn this lesson.
Rates were 0% and the Fed was doing QE the entire time. Really. Of course the markets ripped. That’s gone. Reality check.
The difference is the Fed has now left the party.
Give me a break! The last 15 years the Fed has pumped liquidity through QE, 0% rates, and bailouts. Learn your lesson!!!! Party is over
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.
I suggest a female advisor.......
Brilliant discussion today.
How can I ask? I'm just starting out, is there anyone who can help me with crypto trading without causing too much damage?
I think all you might need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give your weekly return of investment without any extra fees attached
I suggest ms.Evelyn Turner, she holds the credit of being crucial about the mrkt and also a knowledgeable broker to be proud of.
Yeah that's right I think the best way is to invest with a professional, at least it saves the trauma of too much losses.
To be honest I invested as low as $10,000 because I was skeptical initially.Recieving my profit weekly without any attached fees gave me more confidence to reinvest
Wow. I'm so excited seeing Ms.Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a UA-cam referral like this.
Wasn't Dan shorting NVDA all year in 2023?
Great podcast. hope for followup every month from now on
Love the show
Please reframe from using the F word
Otherwise, I have to use my AirPods because other people are in the house. Thank you.
Best podcast yet. Josh and Michael get it!
Until they don't and their portfolios crash and burn.
Nothing to fear. Wait for vwap test then full port. PPT comes to the rescue every time. Organic markets don't function like this. US market is moving similarly to Japan's market with the government as the biggest buyer of stocks.
thanks mike and josh for keeping it real and dis agreeing with the bearish case because that’s what you believe in!
also great job to dan for holding this trio! nice you bring in someone on other side of the fence as you on markets
IGNORE DAN OR YOULL GO BROKE.
DO THE OPP.
Your famous last words
Greetings from Canada. Great show. Just subscribed to this podcast.
Honestly this is one of my favorite sessions; Josh is a legend and I love how this format makes sure he can say whatever the f he wants as opposed to on the mainstream channels. Love seeing Josh and Dan absolutely huck it. Change the title for this session already 😂
Finally someone speaks the truth, this is why historical valuation is so misleading! We have the biggest companies in history combined with the highest margins & growth rates in history. Forget the 90s etc, this is 2024 it’s a new market.
@hbdejean6538 EXACTLY! 100%. This is what people dont get! This is a new narrative! This is a new paradigm and all the old fogeys just dont get it. This AI man! This is Navidiya and it will make u rich if u just LET IT
"Who gives a shit" Just close your eyes and HIT BYE!!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Dan is going to make a boat load of money soon when the market crashes.Just Wacth
The balanced discussion is a nice change. Might consider having more guests on that are balanced/bullish. Great work, guys.
The 🐂 meets the 🐻 lol
Wish this was after the Fed meeting
My favorite collab
Palantir for the software. Look out, they are growing.
Buffalo and surrounding areas are great. From CA but daughter goes to college there. Love visiting there more than NYC.
Dan is the most logical one here, Josh and Michael are FOMO keep on pumping .
Dan is wrong the most too.
love Dan's final point re consumer-led vs. enterprise-led [earning growth]. Thanks for the great conversation!
Buffalo NY is a beautiful place across from the Niagara Falls and Toronto CAN that is a strategic location for commerce and tourism.
Dan, Josh and Michael the Gorillas in action! Can't wait to hear you guys
Josh and Michael are the best.
When they market crashes, they won't be.
Beyond excellent conversation...well done!
Love Batnick!
I’m confused. I thought it’s the compound and you guys were confronting Dan the bear. 😂
Dan keeps talking negative about nvda, that's why there's something called DIVERSIFICATION. Apple is down 14% from all time highs, the S&P is at all time highs, its not the end of the world
Michael's point abt cumulative inflation, so key. Us regular guys are sweatin' it Bc if you rent, then FED cuts 3-4 times? How the heck we going to be able to buy a house when prices haven't really declined, and we've taken maximum rent increases annually. Sorry, FED F-'d us with "lower for longer...ZIRP". Now, everyone hopes they cut? Housing cost is almost untenable, how FED can cut in light of this. If you own already, congrats. Huge bifurcation though for renters, and FED and other policy makers aren't helping.
Exactly! And Powell really just screwed is all again. Inflation is going to rip and house prices will continue to go up even though they are the most unaffordable of all time
love this... nvidia is like msft in 1990 - so what would you do? Does it really matter?
What a moronic comment.
Party on with Dan! 🎉🎉🎉🎉
What investors should be focusing on, are all the changes coming to the tax codes. The IRS is coming for our money. They are going to be making major changes to retirement accounts, including roth accounts, estate accounts, and the list goes on. Taxes are going to increase like we never seen before. I read an article from the IMF stating that the global debt, is at 93 percent of GDP. That is astonishing. There is a reason why central banks are buying up gold like never before. There is big trouble on the horizon! Don't forget what happened back in 2008. people lost more than half of their nest egg. Money that had been growing for years, dissipated overnight, No one had the chance to get out. What do you think is going to happen when the next bubble bursts. They should be talking about what people can do to protect their money now!
Excellent - extra episode of the compound!
Great stuff guys 🔥🔥
Dan just do covered calls so you can sleep well at night...and cut out the caffein
I was hoping more for a celebrity boxing match bull vs Bears... But I will settle for this..
15:04 “you’re the inflation”. lol
Great podcast
really great discussion! keep doing these!
Tesla was crazier in 2021 than Nvidia in 2024 imo
lol this was not a collaboration, this was literally a battle for those of you who didn’t recognize what this episode really was about!
Really tired of the always negative catalysts, the compound guys get it bear markets are a gift not something to fear.
51:40 Jensen’s novelty party sized GPU unveiled at GTC 2024 lol
Love those episode names, Josh! Great episode. Please have them back instead of Guy blabbing on about the Fed and gold!
Love the mash up
What’s Dan saying at 26:40? Q’s and two’s? I understand the QQQ part but what’s the two’s?
Don't worry, he says a lot of things that just give me bad gas and indigestion
Trader talk, twos referr to 2-year US Treasury note. 2’s 10’s is a measure of inflation.
So he’s saying buy large cap tech and stay short term in the bond market w that portion of that portfolio.
New closing high for the Russell. Cya @ 4k EOY
No chance
I hope Dan learns to be more positive in life and market after this
Buy the voo or the qqq and never look at it is the biggest takeaway anyone should’ve learned from
This.
excellent!
Nice one
I think Dan is unnecessarily worried. We have seen Chip bust cycles forever, and they have never broken everything in the China shop.
Josh said: "asymptotic". After googling I learned a new big word I'd never heard before. I doubt I'll ever use it myself.
Downtown Josh Brown!
Lets see how many time Dan Nathan can say "Listen"
You know what I mean?
Or when he says "Right"...or "When you think about...."
I watch/listen to both of these shows. It's kind of funny the collision between how long winded Dan's questions are vs. Josh and Michael's impatience to answer/refute.
A couple(?) years back they had a good collab in person (Guy was there too) but last time Dan was on Compound he was a disaster. Curious how this one goes but it's off to a rocky start. Weird vibe. Can't tell if these guys can't stand each other or not.
Bit of talking past/over each other but entertaining none the less. I invest with Josh & Michael's attitude but I like to hear the market's daily hum/noise through Nathan & Guy thoughts. 🤷♂️
Josh, I do not want my portfolio to down (as you want it to happen-not good) as i am in my late sixties. do not let market go down until I am really old.
Josh is worth listening to, but he can't stop markets falling.
Reason vs Irrational INexuberance;
What a bull. This guy was the one to who said there is no way Nvidia valuation can be justified ALL thru 2023. Now when Nvidia showed him and Danny Moses what they can deliver to shut them up
i fkn love josh brown
Still long xle when dan said short it. Always do the opposite of what nathan sats
Is Dan Nathan’s famous hot dogs still short XLE & NVDA..? 🤣🤣
There are less publicly traded companies today then 10-20 years ago!!!!! Too much money chasing too few products…
lmao dan gets so triggered
I can tell you know, as a reformed trader and now long term investor, I’m hoping for a major correction. I’m going to pile every penny into my brokerage account when we get a pull back. Unfortunately, this market is resilient and we’re less likely to get a correction this year.
I'm in your boat, but I've also started reading Of Dollars and Data blog. He makes a good point that gigantic corrections are rare or you have to wait a decade for them to come. His point is to just employ the money because eventually the market goes up. By the time, you put money in the correction, prices have already inflated higher because you've waited so long. This makes sense, but I still can't pull the trigger myself.
It must be opposites day..lol
Did anyone else hear mediocre too? 😂
🐻 vs 🐂
Guy is too afraid to show up in his own podcast 😂😂
This was phenomenal! Dan is one of my faves. Been following him for years. Way too bearish lately
I wish your other bear mate was here.
Posts daily about the coming crash while the market rips ROFL.
I listened to this episode because of Josh and MIchael. Dan has nothing new to offer. Instead of keep repeating the same old 'warning' about NVDA, he should be helpful and give listeners a strategy on how to benefit from AI. We heard enough of his negativity. Should we all go to cash?
4% unemployment is still " full employment " , so no sweat.
👍👍👍🙏🙏🙏
liberals seem like such happy ppl
It only took 41:28 seconds to bring up Tesla again
He has been dead right on Tesla! Getting punished again today. And going lower
Josh needs a better wine retailer. Argiano is ok.
Appreciate you guys. For not being dick bags like many other people in the sector discussing similar things
DA BILLS !!! 🚣
Batnick: “are we any worse off because malls blew up? because brick and mortars were severely disrupted?” umm… YES, Michael. heard of the loneliness epidemic? heard of the lack of 3rd spaces? yes fam. buying everything online is not good for a social species. keep watching. your Vision Pro is gonna make it even more weird.
If you can´t manage your life, social life, sports, physical activity, etc. Because of extra conveniences, saving time work from home flexibility, home shopping, that is your problem not societal... You should Do better and don´t blame evolution...
Damn it Batnick, why’d you say the G word
How can these guys still exist?
Josh Brown is talking about Jenny Harrington about Intel hahahahahaahahahahah😂😂😂😂😂