Analyst Perfectly Timed 2023 Top, Says 'Great Bear Market' Likely Ahead | Milton Berg
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- Опубліковано 16 тра 2024
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Milton Berg, Founder and CEO of Milton Berg Advisors, discusses why the "great bull rally" has likely ended, and what's next for markets. Milton was on the show last summer, when he correctly called the market top: • Worst Market Sell-Off ...
*This video was recorded on April 21, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:22 - Evidence of a low
6:00 - Turning point
9:42 - Inflation vs. deflation
13:26 - Recession
17:30 - The Fed
19:40 - Market correction recap
25:30 - Small vs. large caps
28:59 - High margin debt
35:22 - Assets during disinflation
37:42 - Bitcoin
40:05 - MB Advisors
#stocks #investing #trading
Is the market top in for equities? Comment below and don't forget to subcribe!
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FOLLOW MILTON BERG:
Milton Berg Advisors: www.miltonberg.com/
Twitter (@BergMilton): twitter.com/BergMilton
Maybe yes
Yes, I believe so. Just looking at the charts of individual stocks, they have gone straight up exponentially. Even with a 50% correction, they would still not be at prices that would be good. The saturation of stocks with liquidity has to be over. It's absurd in my opinion
Fantastic interview!!!! Thank you, David Lin.
Positive possibilities, all we can hope for. I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
My needs are kind of unique and complex. I'll contact her nonetheless, and I hope I'm able to make something out of it.
The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
This is still a window-shopping market. But there are a lot of intriguing stocks to watch from a variety of sectors. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
In fact, I had no prior experience or understanding when I began investing in 2020, but by the end of 2023, I had made a profit of almost $850k. All I had been doing was going by what my financial advisor had told me. This demonstrates that all you truly need is a professional to assist you; you don't even need to be a great investor or put in a lot of work.
@@noah-greenewho is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
My CFA ’Gertrude Margaret Quinto’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
I have been told not to be fooled… stocks/etfs are not the economy, I had 250k put aside waiting for the fed to stop raising rates. Now I want to get back into the markets, but looks like the "pause" is forever and faang will still rise/fall, I’m confused, what could be the way moving forward?
The stock market will go down further and goodluck on the fed pausing rate hikes w/ all the hawkishness that has failed to keep up with inflation.
If the unemployment rate is able to remain steady while the Fed hikes and inflation falls back to target, a soft landing might be on the table
Don’t expect a soft landing. We know inflation still far from its 2% destination - the FOMC didn’t reduce rates yet, we can never fortell their moves these days
Fixed income Tbills and bonds may work for you while you try to figure out the next entry point for stocks...
It’s always good to have a balanced fin-plan. I work with a professional planner multi mrkt and fixed-income strategist in NY.
the fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio but will provide legitimate income.
Milton Berg is my favorite commentator and analyst bar none. Amazing analysis and no beating around the bush either. I love this guy cuz he tells it like it is. Amazing!
One of the best out there, hands down
As a newbie about to invest, you must have these four things in mind
1. Have a long term mindset.
2. Be willing to take risk.
3. Be careful on money usage, if you're not spending to earn back, then stop spending.
4. Never claim to know - Ask questions and it's best you work with a financial advise like Rolando Diaz....
Te/e gram
@Rolandostrategy THAT IS HIS USER NAME
Insure you write the NAME complete and He's verified...
Was I the only one laughing at "an honest FED" phrase? 😂😂
These people are so behind the argument. Global markets already crashed. We are waiting for military to step in.
it's not him predicting a deflation, Mike maloney is predicting it as well, David hunter...
but after that they say inflation will come back with a vengeance, 2 digits
The Fed only reacts to fiscal abuse.
How about an honest government?
Something we haven't seen since 2021 and before with the deep state.
Thanks for the video. I finally established a way to increase my net income per month.
My 2024 goal is to pay off the house by Sept 2024 (8 years total into a 30 year @ 4%). I have no debt other than mortgage. My 401k, HSA, IRA and emergency funds get maxed out. The mortgage is my last piece of debt left. I don't have any school loan or CC debt. I've made a lot of sacrifices over the years.
Congratulations on taking the steps necessary to get yourself out of the financial bind you were in.
That's truly remarkable. I hope you don't mind pointing me towards their direction.
She's Sophia Elaine. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field.
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the verified user name.
@PhiaElaine :That's her Handle!
I love hearing Milton's analysis. Educational and entertaining.
David is one of the best interviewers ever. And he’s just getting started. 🤓👍
Too bad he’s gay
D got a little agitated when Melton gave his Bitcoin opinion, though. 😅
Milton correctly called the top 2:00 bull mkt ended 3/2024 3:45 turned bearish Feb 8, short list; speculative stocks turn on peak momentum, not wkly, now beginning of bear 9:30 deflation ahead 11:50 every deflation crisis begins with debt 12:50 deflation in housing, wages 13:40 evidence for recession, spending increasing but not incm 14:25 recession begins when yld curve inverts then disinverts 16:25 fed has not cut, worse forecaster
This man speaks faster than I think
Intelligent people do
This man needs to buy a good microphone
@@benhaze1010 Especially since he can't speak clearly.
Slow it down to .75 speed it’s perfect then
@@funkspinna He may have a slight speech problem, but his message is clear. I enjoyed the interview.
Feels like a big drop is coming but it never does.
Frustrating.
global liquidity index
It's a psychological game at this point
stop shorting, you'll be less frustrated.
Until the 1st rate cut happens dont short
@@brianpereira7483 added to shorts today.
The top of the market could be in. But not the top for government spending.
18:29 "Where did the Fed get the idea that 2% inflation is ideal. It makes absolutely no sense. The ideal is 0% inflation." THANK YOU. I've been telling everyone this but few seem to get it.
For Long term financial planning
Wit a 0% inflation rate, it's harder to fudge the CPI numbers.
2% inflation is important in economic fundamentals. It’s a sign of healthy growing economy where demand grows consistently.
If you read the history on it, it's essentially an arbitrary figure. As David correctly points out, the 2% inflation target figure was mentioned during an interview by a finance minister of New Zealand, and other Central bankers decided that the 2% figure had a nice ring to it. And adopted it.
The New Zealand finance minister essentially pulled that figure out of his azz in response to a question, but it stuck. Even he was surprised that the 2% figure was adopted.
Inflation is a tax on poor people who normally don't pay income taxes and are a net negative on the system. 2% inflation ensures the government debt is steadily devalued overtime while increasing the price of assets--whom the upper class own.
Best interview, i have seen recently. Its sad that he doesn’t cater to retail folks
Thanks David for inviting Milton. He is legendary
milton has balls of steel to short the market and bitcoin
Wish you would've asked him: "If we go into a recession / deflation, wouldn't governments immediately ease financial conditions by lowering rates and ending QT / restarting QE?" He would likely answer yes, so: "Ok, why don't you think loosening financial conditions would support markets?"
The thing is the Treasury and the FED act lightning quick now. Remember when banks were beginning to fail in March of '23? Treasury and FED worked together and came up with the BTFP in less than 72 hours. Poof, fixed. Seems obvious that any shocks to both equities and bonds will elicit similar responses, especially in an election year...
Sounds spot-on to me. Thank you David and Milton.
Thank you for this episode 🙏
Great to hear some diverse opinion. David always keeps us on our toes 👍
“You have to get great president and a great congress…” yea not happening lol
Why did you cut the interview when he's speaking about the most interesting thing, market, economic cycles. He's by far the best guest I've listened to on your channel.
Fantastic interview. Thank you !
It is always a pleasure to listen to Milton. Thank you for this free content !!!!
Super intelligent man. First time hearing him. Very beneficial. Great interview
Great guest-interesting analysis
Very interesting interview thx lin
I Hit 113k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject.
I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage.
Mary McDonald's strategy has been instrumental in helping me navigate the past few months. Without it, I don't think I would have made it through
Please, how do I connect with Mary mcDonald? I would appreciate if you show me how to go about it
SHE IS ON TELEGRAM.S..
@Mary913 thats her user name
Milton is always a breath of fresh air from all the talking heads and coked up finfluencers. He's always calm and humble, yet deeply knowledgeable. I also appreciate that he always wears a proper tie, which I interpret as a sign of respect for his profession.
he ain't knowledgeable on Bitcoin
I love the fact he explains that people don't like to hear about his Cycles work and when he comes to explain in a bit more detail it is suddenly edited out !
What happened to his segment on cycle analysis? Was really looking forward to hearing that…..please post it.
One of your best guests
Thanks for having Milton on again! He's the best. Why did you cut off his talk on cycles at 35min?
Great interview David, thank you.
You seem to cut out several portions of this video, why would you do that? He was explaining the cycles and you seem to cut that out. He was talking on FED keeping the currency and you cut that out
maybe he went into stuff that he was afraid to post on YT?
High Level Guests David. Great Work.
I really enjoyed this guest, Milton. Thanks!
An honest man. Thank you both.
Excellent interview, David. Milton is one of the best analysts and has very compelling arguments supporting his thesis. Thoroughly enjoyed the discussion. Thank you.
super interesting. plz ask milton to slow down his communication cuz unless your a new yorker he can be a little difficult to understand. thx david great review
Stopped watching after he said we are more likely to have deflation because we have an honest government that won't inflate the debt away. 😅
it's relative. he probably mean 'more honest' than a banana republic style govt
@dumbcat we are in a fiscal dominance regime, where you can bet the politicians will continue to spend at an alarming rate, similar to a banana republic. Government spending is almost 40% of GDP and is only going to get worse unless you trust the politicians to do the right thing ?
Great catch getting Mr. Wolf!
YES! I was thinking the same thing. Lots of luck to you gentlemen.
If this is to happen (bear market) what do we do with our 401k? Swap stocks with bonds?
Great interview, 100% agree with the guest. BTW a fantastic guest
Thank you, David Lin, for introducing me to the inimitable Mr. Berg. He is the Baron of Bear Markets. Anyone who thinks that we need a Fed should consider that the nation grew more dyamicallly and with greater stability when there was no national bank. The recessions of the 1830s, 1850s and 1870s were milder than the 1930s, 1970s, and 2009, and they were much less harmful to the average American. Net immigratoin into the US continued during the 1870s but not during the 1930s. During the second half of the 19th century Americans were increasingly wealthy, and the wealth was more evenly distributed than it has been under the Fed. As Arthur Schlesinger argues in The Age of Jackson, the workingmen of the 1830s recognized that the banks posed a threat to their wages and that a national bank was the worst threat of all. They had a better undersztanding of economics than the quacks who dominate today's universities.
"2023 top" - bro if you sold in 2023 you literally missed the top, lol.
Best guest you have had in a while.
Love hearing from Milton Berg. Great interview. Milton has been around the block a few times and knows what he is talking about.
AMAZING interview. Please bring him back if he can make the time.
Thanks for this
🙏🏼 thank you gentlemen. Always interesting to look at a topic from many different directions. The big question is always: ‘when’ or ‘what would be the cue’.
More Milton, More Often. This guy is legendary.
I totally agree with you Mr. De Niro
He is 100% correct but his time scale is out. There is still gov spending. When the deficit spending stops there will be deflation. But it is some way off. The politics is government borrows and spends more. What stops this.
as long as biden spends like a play boy, the unstoppable parabolic bull market in nasdaq bubble stocks continue
When the currency breaks down in very high inflation. That's a ways off.
You bought the top. Just hodl buddy
@@bradw2k😂 you're so delusional...the currency IS WORTHLESS
@@j3558no, op is right. Its function of liquidity - so long as govt budget is in deficit - that money will flow into equities.
Great conversation
The Great Bull Market consists mainly of the Magnificent 7... and many other related to the tech stocks... but the majority of other stock sectors have already been in a bear market over the past couple years...
So is he saying all stocks will flip to a Bear Market or only the hi-flying tech stocks?
I think you could call the runup in Mag 7 stocks a glorified bear market rally. The beginning of a new bull market always includes small caps and as Milton said that just hasn't happened.
Great interview, this guy is good 👍
Milton is the best of the best
I completely agree with this thesis
You need to have Mr. Berg on the show more often. So knowledgeable
Great episode, an honest fed wouldn't inflate away the debt. I see a fundamental problem in that state.
great interview!
Since when did Harvey Keitel get into the investment analyst business?
Exactly. Strap in.
Milton is great!
Mr. Berg knows of what he speaks. Great interview. That's a righteous rug he has, too.
I really like Milton. 😊
Wow! What a bright mind. I loved this episode.😊
Yes sir, great video. I usually just lurk, but thanks
Ok so were heading into ..
Deflation, bank failures, major recession and a credit crisis.... so the markets are going higher then?
Thanks!
Love this interview.
This indecision and inability of this analysis to explain why inflation or difletion is mind bending.
Correct the caption because it says Great bull market but this is about the great bear market and deflation
I like this guy.. gonna have to start following him
Milton Berg 🐐I love this guest. Nothing is about belief in himself, its just about evidence and the analysis is deep.
This man seems like he knows what he’s talking about, thanks for the great interview David 🤝
Milton is absolutely the best in terms of knowing where a markets going. Get him back when he knows we are turning again!!
Good job, Mr Lin. You let him talk.
Milton makes a lot of sense, and there is suprising amount of bullishness, and I don't recall a time, where everyone was calling the market a bull market since, 1999.
Who’s bullish?
Milton Berg for President 2024!!!
I didnt understand his point of the government has to pay back the debt because we have a true monetary system?
If they did, the debt wouldn’t be ever growing? They are paying down old debt with new debt, and also adding to the total debt?
Appreciate someone explaining it, if I’m missing something?
Thanks David for continuing to pursue Berg's rationale for his BTC position. Little by little, he began to slowly enumerate the reasons why BTC is a superior store of value, but he does not yet seem to understand Bitcoin's superior settlement mechanism, among other things. It is hard to imagine that he has ever read and understood The White Paper. Surprising, given his criticism of other analysts not doing their homework.
Great interwiew, hope he is right, I am short
It’s almost like we all expect higher inflation not 2% anymore so why wouldn’t people load up on stocks ect at this point it makes no sense to not hold equites ect while government is constantly printing
Yeah that’s what I don’t understand either. Also, a lot of foreign investors are buying American stocks right now because China and Europe’s markets are in much worse shape.
Does Milton have a red stapler?
The G.O.A.T def my favorite dudes a legend the best in the business by far IMHO nailed this top as usual
At what level will he cover his shorts? That’s the real question.
Agree. Very likely we r headed for a decade long bear market in all western assets. It will be a period of geopolitical n currency changes. Within US this is the chance to do the long-needed economic n social n government reforms. If we succeed, US will be on a long-term sustainable growth path in a decade. But we must take the pain 1st n do the adjustments.
From investing pov, sell all US, european equities n bonds. Go long gold n hard assets. Go long emerging market stocks n their currencies like India n Brazil.
Keep some powder dry n pick up great deals within the US when asset prices crash over the next 10 years as the US has great long term potential.
🙏 Lin. Hilde from Belgium
David you cut the part about Cyclical Analysis !! @35mins... I was very interested in what Milton had to say...
Love seeing videos like this. It means we keep going higher. Crash will come 2027-2028 into 2030 😊
Where do you get those dates?
@@chrislastnam6822 just let people keep coping after they bought the top
he seems honest compared to other analysts
Great guest
yo. never edit or cut out a milton interview ever again please. That function should only be reserved for harry dent.
They printed 50 percent of the money supply in 2 years during covid. How can u say this is not like Argentina?
More like Venezuela
More like Monopoly money
When you’re the reserve currency of the world, other countries pay for your over printing
@@5600hp you're repeating things you don't understand. Try not to be a sheep
@@prolific1518that's all you got? You're not going to tell him he's wrong and why? 😅
Please keep shorting to push it higher. Thank you for your service, sir
This guy didn't consider international politics at all. All his analysis is based on the last 100 years of market movement while the US was the dominating growth engine. My hunch is either there is a war or great devaluation of both US dollar and US equity.
I agree but depends on currency pairs.
Reversal of last 50 year trends means:
USD could rise against other western currencies such as euro n Japanese yen.
But USD will fall against "emerging" markets such as India Brazil, developing Asia. This is where money will be made over next 20 years.
Go long non-western stocks n currencies like India. Go long gold n physical assets. Get out of all western assets over next 10 years.
If US can successfully do the needed reforms, it will be a good time to pick up cheap western assets as they crash. Because US still has good long-term potential as long as it take take the economic n social adjustments.
Western world is debt ridden and aging. The rest of the world is also debt ridden and aging…but they don’t have a welfare system as crazy as western world and they are not as old as the western world. A thought from South Korea
He uses thousands of self made indicators that some may only fire 1 time and never again. Hes been in the game for so long worked with anyone who's anyone duds the man.
He might actually. He actually includes lunar moons in his analysis. I think he said before some of his data goes back 1000 years. so would bet he has a way to capture geo political.
Markets never move on war, political instability or economic conditions. These are all reasons given to justify the bull or bear run. During wars markets have been bullish historically and bearish during healthy economy. Makers move on cycles since 100 years
He’s spot on we don’t need the Fed