Yeah no Bowen marsh had a lot of good reasons for the mutiny. Jon was about to make house Bolton and winterfell into their enemies, and that's something the watch couldn't afford. His honor blinded him to his sense
Are you sure wouldn’t you think that the rangers would have a deep hatred of the wildings which was pretty much there job since they lost Have lost focus of there mission expect if all the rangers have been replaced since the great ranging
@@robertsmith8734 We know at least of a Crannogman House called Marsh. I don't think it's explicitly confirmed that that House Marsh and Bowen's House Marsh are one and the same, but it's very likely. As for Alf, IDK.
While you talking about examining Jon stabbing , I imagine Jon Snow lying in the snow, and narrating “you are probably wonder how the hell I got in to this mess ...”
I exhausted myself on A Song of Ice and Fire theories, analysis, researching the lore, read/rereading everything. Outside of the text itself, I am sick of all of it, all of the podcasts, the UA-cam channels, the threads - all, except for Preston Jacobs.
A lot of other channels are an echo chamber of opinions and theories we've all heard a million times over the years. Take ten other ASOIAF channels and ask them to do a video or series on Jon's stabbing, and you will invariably get: "Unlike in the show, in the books it was a character called Bowen Marsh who stabbed Jon, as Alliser Thorne is actually out ranging at this time. Also different in the books is Jon's last words. In the show his last word is *rolls eyes to appease the audience* 'Ollie', but in the books it's 'Ghost', the name of his direwolf. What's the significance of this? Well again, unlike in the show, Jon actually has wraging abilities similar to Bran. Warging is the ability to place one's consciousness into animals or, in Bran's case, into Hodor *snap cut to Hodor saying 'Hodor*. So there's a theory among fans that just as Jon was dying, he transferred his soul into Ghost, and that's why he said his direwolf's name, though *little chuckle* we here at A Song of Ice and Theories don't think that Jon warged into Ollie when he said his name in the show! Seriously though, what effect will living inside a wolf for so long have on Jon when Mellisandre brings him back? We'll just to wait for the Winds of Winter to find out, but since that could still be yeeeaaaaaars away, in the mean time, why don't you tell us your thoughts down in the comments section blah blah blah, I have achieved nothing"
Marsh does this mutiny because he doesn't trust the Wildlings. I suspect that the only thing keeping the Wildlings faithful was Jon not Stannis. The wildlings see jon as one of them and they follow strength. Jon might be the strongest person they know. He's a warg. Her stole a Wildling woman. He defeated a Then. They keep faith because of Jon. Now Marsh has killed the only thing keeping the Wildlings in check. It would be an irony worthy of GRRM if Marsh became the instrument of his own demise.
@@wisdommanari6701 Not in single combat like in the show, but he managed to defeat the Magnar of Then in the books tactically by trapping him in a fire trap
To me it's obvious we'll be getting a Melisandre chapter one or two days after Jon's stabbing in which all would already be resolved: Mel and Ghost got Jon away from the mutiny, healed him(he didn't die, he just almost died immediately) and Tormund captured Marsh's mutiny and threw them in the icy cells. They waited one day for Jon to rise again, and Mel, forcing Jon awake with spicy powders, was convinced by Jon to use a spell to give him the strength needed to rise again. Jon will not need to fight a mutiny. Mel and Tormund are competent people, they can deal with a plump, petulant pomegranate.
If Bowen Marsh and the others planned to kill Jon before the arrival of the Pink Letter, they are probably going to regret it. Wun Wun is freaking out, their is nothing left to keep the wildlings in check and they have brothers at Hardhome in dire trouble. Pyp and Grenn are at Eastwatch and sooner or later will be wondering what's going on. It's anyone's guess how Allisor Thorne will react when/if he returns from his ranging. Dolorous Edd may not be too far from Castle Black to hear the chaos going on and turn around. Queens men will most likely try to take charge to restore order but that won't go over well with the Nightwatch. Basically, while it could be argued that the mutineers were justified in turning on Jon, the resulting fallout will be chaos at the wall.
One thing that always stuck out to me was Jon's clumsy grip on his sword after he's slashed. Obviously he's disoriented, but it was reinforced so often that Jon regularly stretched his burned hand to avoid that very situation.
It just adds one more element of doubt to the situation that may never be explained. Was is really just a genuine mistake, which is plausible, or was it the influence of someone like Bloodraven? The latter is probably more likely given how heavily manipulated Jon's story has been already.
@@user-md3wm7vu1f I initially read it as a sign of Jon's naivety/negligence. Like, the exercising of his hand was this act of discipline, but his role as Commander became so distracting and demanding that he began overlooking that small act. I saw that as a reflection of the way that Jon's preoccupation with Stannis, the Wildlings, and the others caused him to overlook the doubt, suspicion, and dissatisfaction of his Nights Watch brothers. Probably just reading too much into things.
To be fair on Horse and Rory, when Jon heard Patrek's screaming he suddenly ran ahead until he came upon a wild Wun Wun lassoing Ser Patrek above his head, by the time the two of them got there Jon was probably trying to talk him down, and Jon told everyone to stay back. Looking at all that and the fact no-one was expecting Jon to get stabbed in broad daylight with men all around him, I don't think Horse or Rory had anything to do with the mutiny.
Unless Marsh, Whittlstick et al are committing some kind of suicide by wildling, or kamikaze coup assassination, I think it’s safe to say that the rest of the watch is in armor, hidden, waiting for the high sign to start slashing free-folk throats. I think Winds probably begins with a wildling red wedding presided over by Marsh and - crackpot alert - a returned Aliser Thorne.
@@PedroLucas-mg5je Hopefully, some day, you will. I really don’t see another way for George to go. Unless something completely unforeseen happens, this is how this must play out. At least in these first few hours post-stab.
@ dozens of men in the watch had witnessed the army of the dead. Jon did lay out that wildlings couldn't be allowed to be taken by the Others. And the plans for inhabiting the Gifts were an old idea of benjens. Further the wildlings were let it earlier. Why did the mutineers mutiny much later? As for the pink letter his options were annihilation or surrendering guests who have rights. Therefore killing Ramsay is just preemptive self defense.
@@e22ddie46 to not interfere. Protecting himself by assassinating a criminal terrorist like Ramsay isn't interfering in the realm. At the best its questionable but certainly not objective oath breaking. They didn't swear to be stabbed by any presumptious Lord.
@@sidhaarthln6914 how is marching an army south to kill the ruling lord of the kingdom you live in not interfering? Hell, jon even thought he was interfering when he tried to save arya. Edit: to add in, the actual words say " I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post" he is clearly oathbreaking when he leaves his command, let alone the reason being to march an invading army to conquer a castle
@@e22ddie46 how is he leaving his command by protecting his men? He does wonder if it's oath breaking true but that's because he is skeptical and is thinking of political technicalities and tommen supporters' opinions. That in itself doesn't conclusively make it oath breaking. He says something like "Let ANY oath breaking be mine alone". That means he sees the possibility of accusations of treasons. Nothing more. He's going because the alternative is to either let the watch be smashed or surrender his guests neither of which are legal. Arya doesn't have to factor into it.
While there were reasons to stab Jon far earlier, the REAL reason why he got killed is because he betrayed the watch and wanted to march on winterfell with a wildling army. That makes him a turncloak, and turncloaks shall die by law, and even worse, would he get his, the Iron Throne and the Boltons would not forget, therefore putting the Watch in danger.
@@alanpennie8013 Yes, which is utterly obvious if you read a booky so this whole "IT WAS BECAUSE IF THE WILDINGS!" just does not sit with me. The show misunderstood it, sure, does not mean everyone else has to do the same.
@@sedargames8161 Of course whatever they liked to say about themselves they really were mutineers and murderers. Much better to simply depose Jon as incapable than kill him. Give Jon the Captain Queeg treatment.
@PrestonJacobs Do you think that Clydas has also been sneaking Jon Sweetsleep? Clydas appears to have symptoms of using sweetsleep habitually, grogginess, confusion, and runny red eyes. And Jon's acts as if he is drugged when he writing his letters to the other members of the watch. It is said his words come out crude and harsh but he keeps wrighting. This may also explain why Jon has troubles identifying Ghost's warning.
I like this theory. Clydas probably knows the recipe because he was Aemon's eyes for years. Or he could have stolen the potion over time. Tyrion did the very same thing.
Dion Black Why would Clydas do this though? He is not a Masester, so he would probably not recognise a Warg, or why that "needs" to be treated. If Clydas wanted to poison Jon there's better ways to do it.
Clydas doing so would fall under one of three reasons. The first being that he is honestly trying to quite Jon's dreaming and helping him get a better nights sleep. (though I do not find this one likely) If his dreams are like Arya's, half the castle must know he howels, screams, and thrashes in his sleep. The second being that he is trying to slowly incapacitate Jon. If Jon feels overwhelmed by his position and has troubles executing the duties, he would deligate the decisions to Bowen Marsh and the Comanders of the other towers. The third is, he is trying to kill Jon outright, but Jon is showing a resistance similar to Sweet Robin.
Josh Walker Fair point. The second one would be the most likely imo. Jon has probably not have had any expositon to Sweetsleep prior, so he would not have any resistance to it. Unlike Sweetrobin who has been habitually drugged for months, maybe even years, maybe even before he was born. And again, there's probably better ways to poison Jon than doing so with what seems to minimal doeses of sweetsleep.
I am so stoked that this series has finally started! I‘ve been excited about more Night‘s Watch videos ever since you revealed your plan in the last video on Craster‘s Keep! I know you must be very busy with real life as well but I already can‘t wait for the next part in this series! Thanks so much for keeping us ASOIAF fans entertained for so long :)
I agree, most of Preston’s theories are just contrarian hot takes (Dany is Lyanna and Rhaegars child, ugh) and silly “hidden sci fi”, but he does have some very good analysis and I do love some of his theories (especially the pink letter Mance conspiracy).
On a side note , Renly and Robb both specifically said if they weren’t safe inside an army of their men, then nowhere is safe, well something along those lines anyway. And of course we get the irony that umm oops they were killed while with their army. I imagine even Jeor thought on the ranging that being with his men was the safest. Jon though hated his tale because he felt like a mother duck. if he had explored that thought further he probably thought something similar or that he could defend himself. These safe thoughts were ruined when Stannis or his warged mind killed his brother. Then some mutineers in the Nights Watch decide to kill Jeor, there was maybe 10- 20 men involved if that. Then Robb was betrayed at a wedding , ruining all guest right notions, and while not all Frey’s participated , with as much as Walder Frey breeds and the alpha Frey’s looking to prove themselves, the number was much higher. The musicians , guards at the campsites , etc makes me think it’s well over 50. So, the stakes being upped and almost the WHOLE nights watch betraying Jon just kind of goes with that theme and ups the stakes. For some reason though I could have sworn we had an exact number of 13 people stabbing him . I didn’t realize until this video and got me thinking about the other Lords and Kings surrounded by their men.
I haven't finished watching this part of the series, so I'm just going to put my theory here to start off with - there was no conspiracy. All indications point to the "conspiracy" not being particularly well thought-out or planned. At most, there might have been a few mutterings at the feast. There are tears in the eyes of the men, and the whole thing occurs during a very confusing time. The motives, imo, are what they say they are - "for the Watch." What that means depends on the person, but for each its probably a mix of letting ancient enemies like the Wildlings and giants in through the wall, endangering the Watch by tying it too closely to Stannis, and of course, Jon's oathbreaking.
This is the wonder on GRRM work. Even the background character which the average reader forget in a second can have significant importance. I bet that in many cases , we will never know who was behind which scheme , and the motives of slots of the characters.
How thick does Bowen have to be? I get his annoyance and hesitancy, but he's got one of two choices: 1) Let the Wildlings through, and try to feed them and deal with them as best the Watch can, or; 2) Refuse to do the above, and face the Wildlings anyway, but as wights, not men.
It’s almost unbelievable how much depth every plot point has behind it, and people wonder why it takes so long for GRRM to write these novels. Preston you do a phenomenal job over unpacking and investigating it through sheer logic. Sometimes I feel a bit ridiculous how I know so much about a fictional history, and so little of reach history. if I’m remembering correctly, Preston’s an analyst or something for the government? I wonder if his job and the work that goes behind his theory videos are similar?
I wonder, if there were only four man at the crime scene, would they blame the wildlings for Jon's death, seal the wall and then march south to kill the wildlings?
Thinking about Jon's predicament in ADWD reminds me of the Jaime quote in Season 1. "Poor Ned Stark. Brave man, terrible judgement." The one thing the show got right was Jon Snow being a polarizing Lord Commander who has so many revolutionary ideas for the Watch should be since their ancient foe has risen. Should the Wildlings settle south and to help defend it against the Others? Abso-fucking-lutely 100% yes. They're both groups of men with a common enemy bent on destroying them and teaming up is the only way to win. But it's like asking the Chinese/Koreans to team up with the Japanese. There's so much tension and open hatred between the groups of people due to a history of brutal oppression and violence, it'd be physically impossible to make them get along for long enough to fight off the common enemy when they look around themselves and only see their foe who they fought with at least once every generation.
99% of this sounds legit, but I think you misunderstood Bowen Marsh's exclamation when Jon executed Slynt. Marsh's outburst came right after Jon said he wouldn't hang Slynt, and right before Jon gave the order for the chopping block. So, Marsh's exclamation there was apparently caused by believing that Jon was going back on his decision to execute Slynt, making Jon seem a weak leader.
1:45 You say that Bowen Marsh was dismayed when Jon executed Slynt. In fact that is not true - initially Jon had ordered him to be hanged, then said "I will not hang you" - that is when Marsh said "Seven save us!", and then Jon finished by saying he would behead Slynt instead. Everyone hated Slynt, even his supporters.
That's alot to unpack for a part 1 video. First I can smell what The Preston is cooking, and I do believe he's gonna drop a "Selyse/Mel bomb" in part 2. Makes sense and admittedly I never considered it before now, but that can wait for part 2. Based on Preston's own analysis the most obvious conspirator is Othell Yarwick. Preston theorized something odd went down the night Jon was elected, and the First Builder blurted out that he didn't know why his vote changed, but it did, and that may have been the tipping point of Jon's victory. Also with builders marching alongside stewards it's unlikely the First Builder isn't involved, and he's probably close with Marsh in the planning of the entire conspiracy. Most importantly it should be noted that Bowen Marsh is one of the most mysteries characters in the series, though no one realizes that fact. Think on this; Marsh is a Crannogman, totally face palmed myself when I first realized I'd overlooked that. It seems there is a House Marsh, but it's semi-canon I believe (I may be wrong about that if anyone can site a reference) but it's possible he's a bastard. He hates Stannis, but freaks out when Jon goes against Stannis's instructions. I don't think he's a Lannister supporter. His support of Slynt seems to be entirely based on his belief that they'll defeat Stannis, not bc he's loyal to them, and being so far from current events it's easy to see why he felt that way. It all adds up to a huge question mark. Crannogmen are generally Stark loyalists to the bone, and one of his age may know the secrets about Jon, but we get zero indication of his thoughts on any issues pertaining to the North. Nothing is known of his loyalty, his House, his Houses loyalties (does Marsh to Reed equal Bolton to Stark or Florent to Tyrell), his feelings about Starks Reeds & Boltons, his possible bastardy, his reasons for joining the NW, his thoughts on the Children, ect ect. He's had more than enough time on screen that we should know something about him yet we have no clue. He does appear loyal to the NW, and appears to truly believe Jon needed to die to save the NW, but who knows if that reflects his true feelings. Side note, if I'm right that Selyse is involved in Jon's murder does that mean Marsh pushing for Jon to move into the LC tower was an attempt to create a situation where Jon could be murdered for some crime against Selyse that didn't actually happen? It's obvious that Mel needed Jon to die so she could do her thing, and she'd def be able to convince Selyse that he needed to die, though what she told Selyse prob differed from Mel's true motivation. Food for thought. I can't wait for the rest of this series. Think it'll be one of the best Preston has done. We shall see!
GO! Go! Zeppeli! We don't know what Mel knows or what she plans to do but it's certainly in the range of probabilities that she needs him to die and brought back to life. Possibly to control him though my money would be on her doing that to free him from his NW vows so he can go be whatever it is Mel has been searching for. Don't forget there a very good chance that Mel herself is a resurrected creature. She has only pov chapter in the series, and it's in Dance. Go back and read it a few times and you'll notice things easily missed the first time through that point towards Mel having personally experienced death. Put it this way. If Mel believes she need Jon to die and be resurrected/wighted do you think she would shy away from the task for moral reasons? Of course she wouldn't. She'd snap her fingers Thanos style a dozen times if she believed it needed done. She's the most Machiavellian character in the series. I could be wrong of course it's only a theory but you have to admit she's capable of doing absolutely anything.
I think Mel was genuinely trying to save Jon. She constantly warned him what was coming and pleaded with him to keep Ghost at his side. Jon simply made the same exact mistake Robb did in setting his direwolf aside and ignoring his obvious behavior for diplomatic reasons.
Hey Preston, I'm not sure how ads work on youtube, but do you have any control over which companies can advertise on your videos? I have serious issues with Prager "University."
I've often believed the aborted Cersei-Osney Kettleblack assassination plot was just a seed GRRM planted that didn't really grow. It doesn't seem like Jon's assassination has anything to do with Cersei or Qyburn--Bowen Marsh's motives seem reason enough--so the speculation that Clydas is a Lannister agent is interesting. Maybe Qyburn set something in emotion.
They should have added bowen marsh and or donal noye. Take scenes away from pip,sam,gilly and all aliser Thorne scenes after season one. It would have added more wall story and the stabbing with bowen marsh would have been more shocking. Ollie and Thorne left no real surprise because their intent was too obvious. Bowen marsh was a noble character in the books that gave no hint that he was capable of such an action especially since he was very respectful to jon. Donal noye could have used all of dorne scenes after oberyns death since the dorne plot line after that was ridiculously written and wasted story telling time. Donal noye and his bond with jon and his history with stannis would have enhanced the character of jon and stannis. A real fighter and true understanding of leadership. The giant vs the one armed blacksmith would have been epic
Anyone know what music is playing in the intro? Is it something thats been made for Preston's videos specifically or is it open source / taken from another piece of music or show ? I need it in my life! :)
I never realized it until recently but that knight got killed by wun wun because of jon snow lol... When the queen said he wanted the night to marry val and jon told the knight about wildlings tradition of stealing wives so the knight was cocky and thought jon was making fun of him and saying he didn't have courage so the dude got it into his head that when night came he would go steal val but wun wun was sleeping in the way and he woke wun wun and slashed at him thinking he could slay a giant the dude was an idiot he should have rethought his plan after seeing the giant in the way what a dummy
Hey Preston I'm a huge fan of your style of theory crafting. Have you ever considered doing videos on the king killer Chronicles. I feel like there is some material you could really sink your teeth into.
You've sold me on most of these, but not Clydas, I feel like the evidence there is extremely tenuous. Basically your only piece of evidence is this letter by Janos Slynt? I really don't see a world where Aemon, who constantly professes to serve and not make political decisions himself, or Sam, a notorious coward, would refuse to send an ostensibly personal letter to King's Landing for a big bully like Slynt. They are not at war with King's Landing after all, not officially, there's no real, solid reason not to send that letter. But even if they did refuse because maybe they were intelligent or political enough to refuse him, and Clydas was the one who did send it, that still doesn't mean he actually supports the Lannisters. As you said, Clydas appears so rarely and talks so rarely that we know almost nothing about his personality. Would he be bold enough to refuse Janos Slynt if he disagreed politically with sending that letter? A letter which we have no reason to assume, Clydas can even read? Well maybe, but maybe not. Maybe he just doesn't care about politics in any substantial way. We simply don't know.
Jon: *breathes*
Bowen Marsh: and I took that personally
Yeah no Bowen marsh had a lot of good reasons for the mutiny. Jon was about to make house Bolton and winterfell into their enemies, and that's something the watch couldn't afford. His honor blinded him to his sense
"When we last left Jon Snow in a Dance with dragons, he wasn't doing so well" xD
You wrote that six years ago, I am certain Jonboy is doing better now.
It's EXTREMELY telling that the Rangers and basically anyone who has regular contact with wildlings are fine with allowing them through the Wall.
Are you sure wouldn’t you think that the rangers would have a deep hatred of the wildings which was pretty much there job since they lost Have lost focus of there mission expect if all the rangers have been replaced since the great ranging
@John Trevolter it's like he had a seizure while typing
It is worth considering, that two members of the conspiracy, Marsh and Runnymudd, are probably from the neck, and are vassals of house Reed.
@@sagebias2251 Is it said sonewhere that they are from the Neck?
@@robertsmith8734 We know at least of a Crannogman House called Marsh. I don't think it's explicitly confirmed that that House Marsh and Bowen's House Marsh are one and the same, but it's very likely. As for Alf, IDK.
While you talking about examining Jon stabbing , I imagine Jon Snow lying in the snow, and narrating “you are probably wonder how the hell I got in to this mess ...”
*record scratch*
*freeze frame*
"Yep, that's me. You're probably wondering how I got here. You see, it all started back in..."
"It all started when my father... well he's not my real father, but I'll tell you about that later..."
@@BLooDCoMPleX
Title card (36 hours earlier) appears
"Time~ is on my side~ yes, it is~"...
How I Met Your Dagger
I exhausted myself on A Song of Ice and Fire theories, analysis, researching the lore, read/rereading everything.
Outside of the text itself, I am sick of all of it, all of the podcasts, the UA-cam channels, the threads - all, except for Preston Jacobs.
Good because you wont be getting any more from george rr martin.
@@nullakjg767 Fire & Blood is literally less than 2 months away from being released.
Ashara, you took the words right out of my mouth
Well this series to having full Wheel of Time syndrome, it's kinda sad.
A lot of other channels are an echo chamber of opinions and theories we've all heard a million times over the years. Take ten other ASOIAF channels and ask them to do a video or series on Jon's stabbing, and you will invariably get:
"Unlike in the show, in the books it was a character called Bowen Marsh who stabbed Jon, as Alliser Thorne is actually out ranging at this time. Also different in the books is Jon's last words. In the show his last word is *rolls eyes to appease the audience* 'Ollie', but in the books it's 'Ghost', the name of his direwolf.
What's the significance of this? Well again, unlike in the show, Jon actually has wraging abilities similar to Bran. Warging is the ability to place one's consciousness into animals or, in Bran's case, into Hodor *snap cut to Hodor saying 'Hodor*.
So there's a theory among fans that just as Jon was dying, he transferred his soul into Ghost, and that's why he said his direwolf's name, though *little chuckle* we here at A Song of Ice and Theories don't think that Jon warged into Ollie when he said his name in the show! Seriously though, what effect will living inside a wolf for so long have on Jon when Mellisandre brings him back? We'll just to wait for the Winds of Winter to find out, but since that could still be yeeeaaaaaars away, in the mean time, why don't you tell us your thoughts down in the comments section blah blah blah, I have achieved nothing"
Marsh does this mutiny because he doesn't trust the Wildlings. I suspect that the only thing keeping the Wildlings faithful was Jon not Stannis. The wildlings see jon as one of them and they follow strength. Jon might be the strongest person they know. He's a warg. Her stole a Wildling woman. He defeated a Then. They keep faith because of Jon. Now Marsh has killed the only thing keeping the Wildlings in check. It would be an irony worthy of GRRM if Marsh became the instrument of his own demise.
He didn't defeat a then
@@wisdommanari6701 Not in single combat like in the show, but he managed to defeat the Magnar of Then in the books tactically by trapping him in a fire trap
To me it's obvious we'll be getting a Melisandre chapter one or two days after Jon's stabbing in which all would already be resolved: Mel and Ghost got Jon away from the mutiny, healed him(he didn't die, he just almost died immediately) and Tormund captured Marsh's mutiny and threw them in the icy cells. They waited one day for Jon to rise again, and Mel, forcing Jon awake with spicy powders, was convinced by Jon to use a spell to give him the strength needed to rise again.
Jon will not need to fight a mutiny. Mel and Tormund are competent people, they can deal with a plump, petulant pomegranate.
If Bowen Marsh and the others planned to kill Jon before the arrival of the Pink Letter, they are probably going to regret it. Wun Wun is freaking out, their is nothing left to keep the wildlings in check and they have brothers at Hardhome in dire trouble. Pyp and Grenn are at Eastwatch and sooner or later will be wondering what's going on. It's anyone's guess how Allisor Thorne will react when/if he returns from his ranging. Dolorous Edd may not be too far from Castle Black to hear the chaos going on and turn around. Queens men will most likely try to take charge to restore order but that won't go over well with the Nightwatch. Basically, while it could be argued that the mutineers were justified in turning on Jon, the resulting fallout will be chaos at the wall.
It doesn’t seem likely Ser Alliser will be returning to the Wall, at least, alive. And he wasn’t exactly a friend to Jon.
@@agent3269 not a friend, no, but Alisser was is a man of loyalty. He's at the wall for his loyalty. I don't see him as the kind to endorse treason.
Man regret their choices as soon as they see the consequences!
P.S: The mutineers are absolutely F-U-C-K-E-D!
_"Why was Jon killed?"_
How much time do you have? Lol.
One thing that always stuck out to me was Jon's clumsy grip on his sword after he's slashed. Obviously he's disoriented, but it was reinforced so often that Jon regularly stretched his burned hand to avoid that very situation.
It could just be confusion at his brothers trying to kill him.
It just adds one more element of doubt to the situation that may never be explained. Was is really just a genuine mistake, which is plausible, or was it the influence of someone like Bloodraven? The latter is probably more likely given how heavily manipulated Jon's story has been already.
@@user-md3wm7vu1f I initially read it as a sign of Jon's naivety/negligence. Like, the exercising of his hand was this act of discipline, but his role as Commander became so distracting and demanding that he began overlooking that small act. I saw that as a reflection of the way that Jon's preoccupation with Stannis, the Wildlings, and the others caused him to overlook the doubt, suspicion, and dissatisfaction of his Nights Watch brothers. Probably just reading too much into things.
Yeah, that’s the biggest mystery to me. It’s clearly set up as something to be resolved later.
well, if the theory that he was being dosed with sweetsleep is true, that might not be the biggest mystery
Great picture of WunWun.
To be fair on Horse and Rory, when Jon heard Patrek's screaming he suddenly ran ahead until he came upon a wild Wun Wun lassoing Ser Patrek above his head, by the time the two of them got there Jon was probably trying to talk him down, and Jon told everyone to stay back. Looking at all that and the fact no-one was expecting Jon to get stabbed in broad daylight with men all around him, I don't think Horse or Rory had anything to do with the mutiny.
Jon's been lying in that spot, bleeding out for years for years thinking
It's been more than 10 years 👁️👄👁️
And now Jon knows how the tv series ends 😂
He's gonna fuck shit up for everyone!
Unless Marsh, Whittlstick et al are committing some kind of suicide by wildling, or kamikaze coup assassination, I think it’s safe to say that the rest of the watch is in armor, hidden, waiting for the high sign to start slashing free-folk throats. I think Winds probably begins with a wildling red wedding presided over by Marsh and - crackpot alert - a returned Aliser Thorne.
Okay, THIS would be badass to read!
@@PedroLucas-mg5je Hopefully, some day, you will. I really don’t see another way for George to go. Unless something completely unforeseen happens, this is how this must play out. At least in these first few hours post-stab.
Am I the only one who laughed when he started talking about "the incident" with Wun Wun?
Thank you for still making this series relevant while we wait for new material or another season to laugh at
Finally someone questions why Jon was assassinated.
@ dozens of men in the watch had witnessed the army of the dead. Jon did lay out that wildlings couldn't be allowed to be taken by the Others. And the plans for inhabiting the Gifts were an old idea of benjens. Further the wildlings were let it earlier. Why did the mutineers mutiny much later?
As for the pink letter his options were annihilation or surrendering guests who have rights. Therefore killing Ramsay is just preemptive self defense.
@@sidhaarthln6914
I thought it seemed easy enough that he was marching south. They swore an oath.
@@e22ddie46 to not interfere. Protecting himself by assassinating a criminal terrorist like Ramsay isn't interfering in the realm. At the best its questionable but certainly not objective oath breaking. They didn't swear to be stabbed by any presumptious Lord.
@@sidhaarthln6914 how is marching an army south to kill the ruling lord of the kingdom you live in not interfering? Hell, jon even thought he was interfering when he tried to save arya.
Edit: to add in, the actual words say " I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post" he is clearly oathbreaking when he leaves his command, let alone the reason being to march an invading army to conquer a castle
@@e22ddie46 how is he leaving his command by protecting his men? He does wonder if it's oath breaking true but that's because he is skeptical and is thinking of political technicalities and tommen supporters' opinions. That in itself doesn't conclusively make it oath breaking. He says something like "Let ANY oath breaking be mine alone". That means he sees the possibility of accusations of treasons. Nothing more.
He's going because the alternative is to either let the watch be smashed or surrender his guests neither of which are legal. Arya doesn't have to factor into it.
One of the greatest LOLs in history at the depiction of the giant and the knight.
I needed this series
While there were reasons to stab Jon far earlier, the REAL reason why he got killed is because he betrayed the watch and wanted to march on winterfell with a wildling army. That makes him a turncloak, and turncloaks shall die by law, and even worse, would he get his, the Iron Throne and the Boltons would not forget, therefore putting the Watch in danger.
Dear Games
Hence the "For the Watch" slogan. The assassins regard Jon as a deserter and themselves as loyal brothers
@@alanpennie8013 Yes, which is utterly obvious if you read a booky so this whole "IT WAS BECAUSE IF THE WILDINGS!" just does not sit with me. The show misunderstood it, sure, does not mean everyone else has to do the same.
@@sedargames8161
Of course whatever they liked to say about themselves they really were mutineers and murderers. Much better to simply depose Jon as incapable than kill him. Give Jon the Captain Queeg treatment.
Except there is evidence that they planned the assassination BEFORE Jon revealed his plan to go south.
What evidence?
@PrestonJacobs
Do you think that Clydas has also been sneaking Jon Sweetsleep? Clydas appears to have symptoms of using sweetsleep habitually, grogginess, confusion, and runny red eyes. And Jon's acts as if he is drugged when he writing his letters to the other members of the watch. It is said his words come out crude and harsh but he keeps wrighting. This may also explain why Jon has troubles identifying Ghost's warning.
Clydas isn't a maester though, he pobably would not know their modus operandi for treating wargs and greenseers.
I like this theory. Clydas probably knows the recipe because he was Aemon's eyes for years. Or he could have stolen the potion over time. Tyrion did the very same thing.
Dion Black Why would Clydas do this though? He is not a Masester, so he would probably not recognise a Warg, or why that "needs" to be treated.
If Clydas wanted to poison Jon there's better ways to do it.
Clydas doing so would fall under one of three reasons.
The first being that he is honestly trying to quite Jon's dreaming and helping him get a better nights sleep. (though I do not find this one likely) If his dreams are like Arya's, half the castle must know he howels, screams, and thrashes in his sleep.
The second being that he is trying to slowly incapacitate Jon. If Jon feels overwhelmed by his position and has troubles executing the duties, he would deligate the decisions to Bowen Marsh and the Comanders of the other towers.
The third is, he is trying to kill Jon outright, but Jon is showing a resistance similar to Sweet Robin.
Josh Walker Fair point. The second one would be the most likely imo.
Jon has probably not have had any expositon to Sweetsleep prior, so he would not have any resistance to it. Unlike Sweetrobin who has been habitually drugged for months, maybe even years, maybe even before he was born.
And again, there's probably better ways to poison Jon than doing so with what seems to minimal doeses of sweetsleep.
Preston Jacobs is still the best ASOIAF youtuber after all these years! Thank you for always being your best!
I am so stoked that this series has finally started! I‘ve been excited about more Night‘s Watch videos ever since you revealed your plan in the last video on Craster‘s Keep! I know you must be very busy with real life as well but I already can‘t wait for the next part in this series! Thanks so much for keeping us ASOIAF fans entertained for so long :)
НАКОНЕЦ-ТО
The hype you've established in the previous episode made it hard to wait for this episode.
The Russian word was understood, my fellow youtuber.
And leaving us with that ending makes us want the next one
Great video Preston, I hope you won't make us wait too long for part 2.
No one goes as deep in analysis than Preston. Never stop you beautiful bastard.
There is good work done in this video. As someone who believes a lot of your work is blasphemy (Quentin is dead), this is solid.
Quentyn Martell is alive and well. I produced his last three albums.
I agree, most of Preston’s theories are just contrarian hot takes (Dany is Lyanna and Rhaegars child, ugh) and silly “hidden sci fi”, but he does have some very good analysis and I do love some of his theories (especially the pink letter Mance conspiracy).
On a side note , Renly and Robb both specifically said if they weren’t safe inside an army of their men, then nowhere is safe, well something along those lines anyway. And of course we get the irony that umm oops they were killed while with their army. I imagine even Jeor thought on the ranging that being with his men was the safest.
Jon though hated his tale because he felt like a mother duck. if he had explored that thought further he probably thought something similar or that he could defend himself.
These safe thoughts were ruined when Stannis or his warged mind killed his brother. Then some mutineers in the Nights Watch decide to kill Jeor, there was maybe 10- 20 men involved if that. Then Robb was betrayed at a wedding , ruining all guest right notions, and while not all Frey’s participated , with as much as Walder Frey breeds and the alpha Frey’s looking to prove themselves, the number was much higher. The musicians , guards at the campsites , etc makes me think it’s well over 50. So, the stakes being upped and almost the WHOLE nights watch betraying Jon just kind of goes with that theme and ups the stakes. For some reason though I could have sworn we had an exact number of 13 people stabbing him . I didn’t realize until this video and got me thinking about the other Lords and Kings surrounded by their men.
on the worst of days... preston always comes through with great content.
im so grateful, my weeks been shit! thank youuuu
I haven't finished watching this part of the series, so I'm just going to put my theory here to start off with - there was no conspiracy. All indications point to the "conspiracy" not being particularly well thought-out or planned. At most, there might have been a few mutterings at the feast. There are tears in the eyes of the men, and the whole thing occurs during a very confusing time. The motives, imo, are what they say they are - "for the Watch." What that means depends on the person, but for each its probably a mix of letting ancient enemies like the Wildlings and giants in through the wall, endangering the Watch by tying it too closely to Stannis, and of course, Jon's oathbreaking.
You left out the best line in Jon XIII from that quote at the beginning.
"Only the cold..."
This is the wonder on GRRM work. Even the background character which the average reader forget in a second can have significant importance.
I bet that in many cases , we will never know who was behind which scheme , and the motives of slots of the characters.
Hot Pie planned it all!
Yes I love all these series you've been doing on the Nights Watch! So happy your starting a new one
I am concerned for myself for easily humming to the tune of the intro music
How thick does Bowen have to be? I get his annoyance and hesitancy, but he's got one of two choices:
1) Let the Wildlings through, and try to feed them and deal with them as best the Watch can, or;
2) Refuse to do the above, and face the Wildlings anyway, but as wights, not men.
It’s almost unbelievable how much depth every plot point has behind it, and people wonder why it takes so long for GRRM to write these novels. Preston you do a phenomenal job over unpacking and investigating it through sheer logic. Sometimes I feel a bit ridiculous how I know so much about a fictional history, and so little of reach history. if I’m remembering correctly, Preston’s an analyst or something for the government? I wonder if his job and the work that goes behind his theory videos are similar?
Waiting impatiently for part 2!
Great vid. Visuals looks amazing and the content is top notch as always. Keep it up Preston!
I've been waiting for this one. All Hail Lord Preston!
I wonder, if there were only four man at the crime scene, would they blame the wildlings for Jon's death, seal the wall and then march south to kill the wildlings?
Love your videos dude. Been watching for years now and I still love them.
PJ IS BACK!!!
Tomorrow I am marrying the love of my life but Preston made today the best day of my week!
Adam MacKenzie Please have a great life!
Best thing to listen to on my way to work this morning, thanks PJ!
Thinking about Jon's predicament in ADWD reminds me of the Jaime quote in Season 1. "Poor Ned Stark. Brave man, terrible judgement." The one thing the show got right was Jon Snow being a polarizing Lord Commander who has so many revolutionary ideas for the Watch should be since their ancient foe has risen. Should the Wildlings settle south and to help defend it against the Others? Abso-fucking-lutely 100% yes. They're both groups of men with a common enemy bent on destroying them and teaming up is the only way to win.
But it's like asking the Chinese/Koreans to team up with the Japanese. There's so much tension and open hatred between the groups of people due to a history of brutal oppression and violence, it'd be physically impossible to make them get along for long enough to fight off the common enemy when they look around themselves and only see their foe who they fought with at least once every generation.
Noooooo!!! I watched this too soon! Now how long must i wait fir part twooooooo
Great catch on Ghost VS Greywind
That intro music made me think I was watching a Mark Felton video lol
Deeper Papa P, DEEPER!
99% of this sounds legit, but I think you misunderstood Bowen Marsh's exclamation when Jon executed Slynt. Marsh's outburst came right after Jon said he wouldn't hang Slynt, and right before Jon gave the order for the chopping block. So, Marsh's exclamation there was apparently caused by believing that Jon was going back on his decision to execute Slynt, making Jon seem a weak leader.
Yea! When do we get Cantuse's theory on how Satin is also part of a conspiracy against Jon?
Been waiting for this for ages
1:45 You say that Bowen Marsh was dismayed when Jon executed Slynt. In fact that is not true - initially Jon had ordered him to be hanged, then said "I will not hang you" - that is when Marsh said "Seven save us!", and then Jon finished by saying he would behead Slynt instead. Everyone hated Slynt, even his supporters.
That's alot to unpack for a part 1 video. First I can smell what The Preston is cooking, and I do believe he's gonna drop a "Selyse/Mel bomb" in part 2. Makes sense and admittedly I never considered it before now, but that can wait for part 2.
Based on Preston's own analysis the most obvious conspirator is Othell Yarwick. Preston theorized something odd went down the night Jon was elected, and the First Builder blurted out that he didn't know why his vote changed, but it did, and that may have been the tipping point of Jon's victory. Also with builders marching alongside stewards it's unlikely the First Builder isn't involved, and he's probably close with Marsh in the planning of the entire conspiracy.
Most importantly it should be noted that Bowen Marsh is one of the most mysteries characters in the series, though no one realizes that fact. Think on this; Marsh is a Crannogman, totally face palmed myself when I first realized I'd overlooked that. It seems there is a House Marsh, but it's semi-canon I believe (I may be wrong about that if anyone can site a reference) but it's possible he's a bastard. He hates Stannis, but freaks out when Jon goes against Stannis's instructions. I don't think he's a Lannister supporter. His support of Slynt seems to be entirely based on his belief that they'll defeat Stannis, not bc he's loyal to them, and being so far from current events it's easy to see why he felt that way. It all adds up to a huge question mark. Crannogmen are generally Stark loyalists to the bone, and one of his age may know the secrets about Jon, but we get zero indication of his thoughts on any issues pertaining to the North. Nothing is known of his loyalty, his House, his Houses loyalties (does Marsh to Reed equal Bolton to Stark or Florent to Tyrell), his feelings about Starks Reeds & Boltons, his possible bastardy, his reasons for joining the NW, his thoughts on the Children, ect ect. He's had more than enough time on screen that we should know something about him yet we have no clue. He does appear loyal to the NW, and appears to truly believe Jon needed to die to save the NW, but who knows if that reflects his true feelings.
Side note, if I'm right that Selyse is involved in Jon's murder does that mean Marsh pushing for Jon to move into the LC tower was an attempt to create a situation where Jon could be murdered for some crime against Selyse that didn't actually happen? It's obvious that Mel needed Jon to die so she could do her thing, and she'd def be able to convince Selyse that he needed to die, though what she told Selyse prob differed from Mel's true motivation. Food for thought. I can't wait for the rest of this series. Think it'll be one of the best Preston has done. We shall see!
Why would mel want jon dead? She dont know how to revive people in the books...
GO! Go! Zeppeli!
We don't know what Mel knows or what she plans to do but it's certainly in the range of probabilities that she needs him to die and brought back to life. Possibly to control him though my money would be on her doing that to free him from his NW vows so he can go be whatever it is Mel has been searching for. Don't forget there a very good chance that Mel herself is a resurrected creature. She has only pov chapter in the series, and it's in Dance. Go back and read it a few times and you'll notice things easily missed the first time through that point towards Mel having personally experienced death. Put it this way. If Mel believes she need Jon to die and be resurrected/wighted do you think she would shy away from the task for moral reasons? Of course she wouldn't. She'd snap her fingers Thanos style a dozen times if she believed it needed done. She's the most Machiavellian character in the series. I could be wrong of course it's only a theory but you have to admit she's capable of doing absolutely anything.
I think Mel was genuinely trying to save Jon. She constantly warned him what was coming and pleaded with him to keep Ghost at his side. Jon simply made the same exact mistake Robb did in setting his direwolf aside and ignoring his obvious behavior for diplomatic reasons.
MegaTechpc
Absolutely nothing I said relates to the show in the slightest. I stopped watching that crap a long time ago.
The best gift I can get on a Friday!
Never stop making videos Preston, you can start vlogging and I'll still watch
That's not what Jon thought though, he thought he had NOT even a tenth of Aemon knowledge, meaning maybe not even one percent.
There should be 6 conspirators as there are 6 thumb down.
GRRM planned it all !!!
Really enjoying this series. What program do you use to edit your vids Preston?
BACK!!!
Waat. A video at daytime. You must be abroad.
You see , I get in the daytime. This one got here at 3 am for me! Watching it right now. 😆
thank you Preston. Just made my day.
Ghost is always hostile to Jon's enemies but he never learns. You know nothing Jon Snow
I was about to go to sleep until I saw this upload lmaooo
Happy Friday to me! Thanks Preston
*jon gets **_the point_*
He got stuck with the pointy end
Hey Preston, I'm not sure how ads work on youtube, but do you have any control over which companies can advertise on your videos? I have serious issues with Prager "University."
Will the Skyrim iron dagger appear in the books?
Also Bowen Marsh = a crannogman?
Possibly. His name is Marsh.
House Marsh, sworn to House Reed of the Neck
lastEvergreen
Faithless to the ancient alliance. I fear Bowen will come to a bad end.
And he is a secret Targaryen as well. Son of Kvothe and Meera Reed
3:12 is that decapitated Merret Frey?
I've often believed the aborted Cersei-Osney Kettleblack assassination plot was just a seed GRRM planted that didn't really grow. It doesn't seem like Jon's assassination has anything to do with Cersei or Qyburn--Bowen Marsh's motives seem reason enough--so the speculation that Clydas is a Lannister agent is interesting. Maybe Qyburn set something in emotion.
They should have added bowen marsh and or donal noye. Take scenes away from pip,sam,gilly and all aliser Thorne scenes after season one. It would have added more wall story and the stabbing with bowen marsh would have been more shocking. Ollie and Thorne left no real surprise because their intent was too obvious. Bowen marsh was a noble character in the books that gave no hint that he was capable of such an action especially since he was very respectful to jon. Donal noye could have used all of dorne scenes after oberyns death since the dorne plot line after that was ridiculously written and wasted story telling time. Donal noye and his bond with jon and his history with stannis would have enhanced the character of jon and stannis. A real fighter and true understanding of leadership. The giant vs the one armed blacksmith would have been epic
Anyone know what music is playing in the intro? Is it something thats been made for Preston's videos specifically or is it open source / taken from another piece of music or show ? I need it in my life! :)
Damn book readers! Jon was not lying with his face down. I saw it with my own bloody eyes!
Where does the melody from the intro come from. It reminds me of a song, but I can't remember which one.
Bowen Marsh? More like Bowen "Darsh."
@PrestonJacobs completely unrelated to the content but I thought you'd appreciate that I got an impeach trump ad when I opened this one
I never realized it until recently but that knight got killed by wun wun because of jon snow lol... When the queen said he wanted the night to marry val and jon told the knight about wildlings tradition of stealing wives so the knight was cocky and thought jon was making fun of him and saying he didn't have courage so the dude got it into his head that when night came he would go steal val but wun wun was sleeping in the way and he woke wun wun and slashed at him thinking he could slay a giant the dude was an idiot he should have rethought his plan after seeing the giant in the way what a dummy
Wow this is going to be a good series!!!!
Satin should be 1st choice to be in the Stewards, if any man at the Wall knows how to take care of a Lord's many needs then it's Satin ;)
Ah yea, Mr Preston is back!
The Others take them
Hey Preston I'm a huge fan of your style of theory crafting. Have you ever considered doing videos on the king killer Chronicles. I feel like there is some material you could really sink your teeth into.
man, this looks like it's gonna be a loooong analysis, like Dornish long. Keep up the good work though.
Morning sunshine : )
*That is if your on the East coast
I am on the west coast... of Norway. Still, it's early in the morning as I'm typing this (on my Wii U).
@@Aewon84
god morgen !
Hope that's right, trying to say good morning and Norwegian : )
Finally :) but when is next time and when airs Part II?
Is one of the heads on a spike Hosteen Frey? One of the Crakehall Freys?
Why Jon didn't mention the support of the Iron Bank baffles me.
maybe bc nights watch have never taken a loan before. and he thinks that might be something else they might critize him for
It would insure they wouldn't starve to death, how is that not a win.
I can't help but wonder if they would have acted different knowing this.
You've sold me on most of these, but not Clydas, I feel like the evidence there is extremely tenuous. Basically your only piece of evidence is this letter by Janos Slynt? I really don't see a world where Aemon, who constantly professes to serve and not make political decisions himself, or Sam, a notorious coward, would refuse to send an ostensibly personal letter to King's Landing for a big bully like Slynt. They are not at war with King's Landing after all, not officially, there's no real, solid reason not to send that letter.
But even if they did refuse because maybe they were intelligent or political enough to refuse him, and Clydas was the one who did send it, that still doesn't mean he actually supports the Lannisters. As you said, Clydas appears so rarely and talks so rarely that we know almost nothing about his personality. Would he be bold enough to refuse Janos Slynt if he disagreed politically with sending that letter? A letter which we have no reason to assume, Clydas can even read? Well maybe, but maybe not. Maybe he just doesn't care about politics in any substantial way. We simply don't know.
14:43 My boy Wun Wun really let himself go.
is anyone else terrified that GRRM is watching stuff like this and thinking "F*CK! That's much better..."
Yaaaay back are we and!
I need part 2 now man.
Goodmorning happy Friday Everyone, #jondoesntcomeback
Happy Friday to you too 💙
The gates should indeed be sealed. Specially after the disaster at Hardhome.
Harry Hal? Starlady reference?
Wh---what's Merrett Frey's head doing on a pike at the wall?! This changes EVERYTHING!
Why the hell do characters have direwolves if they don't listen to them?
They are pretty badass pets
The 73 dislikes are just those who were in on the conspiracy not wanting word of there treachery to get out.
Good analysis but whose art do you use? It's the worst I've seen of any ASOIF channels.