Clean Disruption Interview - US Embassy Wellington, New Zealand
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- The US Embassy in Wellington, New Zealand, interviewed Tony Seba about the " Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation".
In his book, Tony predicts that conventional cars as we know them will be obsolete by 2030, as well as the current oil, nuclear, natural gas, coal and electric utility industries. In this interview Tony Seba explains the methodology and the data that he uses to predict that exponential technologies such as solar, energy storage, electric vehicles, and self-driving cars, will disrupt the century-old energy and transportation industries.
More people need to learn of these disruptions. Exciting times we live in.
Tony claim that all (new?) vehicles will be electric by 2030 seems to be a bit of a stretch.
From a recent HBSC report.....
These estimates are in stark contrast to projections from the likes of Statoil and the IEA as to the penetration rate of EVs. Statoil’s base case Reform scenario assumes AFVs comprising 67% of new LDV sales and 45% of the global LDV fleet by 2040. The two “2°C” scenarios -Statoil’s Renewal and the IEA’s 450 - assume EVs to make up 64% and around 35% of the
global LDV market by then, respectively. For context, Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance study expects EVs to comprise 35% of LDV sales and 25% of the global fleet by 2040.
They are linear thinkers. His whole projection is of exponential growth, defined by the S-Curve, or J-Curve if a new technology takes over practically overnight. History proves him correct time and time again. Yes, there may be the odd new ICE car sold in 2030 from old inventory, or from a specialist manufacturer, but essentially it'll be all over for the ICE as a massed produced product. It doesn't help the ICE that more and more countries are banning their sales sooner and sooner. Vehicle manufacturers won't want to be left with old outdated inventory, so they will stop producing ICE vehicles years in advance of any government rulings.
"As a percentage of total car sales, nearly one in three new cars (29 percent) sold in China are electric, compared with 21 percent in Europe, 8 percent in the United States, and about 2 percent across the rest of the world.5 jun 2023"
And those were probably the 2022 numbers, 7 or 8 years to go...