Great to hear again your updated thoughts on the coming clean disruption - makes my planet-earth-loving heart beat a bit more easily. Hope you can come to South Africa one day soon to educate our energy moguls too!
Batteries don't solve the intermittent problem with PV It's not about storing todays output to use the same night. That is daily storage which will help allow more solar and wind into the grid but it doesn't allow total displacement of fossil fuels To totally displace fossil fuels you need seasonal storage which means this summers solar PV is stored to use this winter. Thats really not possible as the scale is absurd and you only get 1 cycle per year or 20 cycles in the life time of the pack Even if the battery cost just $20/KWh so 10x cheaper than today that is still far too expensive for seasonal storage This video is 5 years old and the solar arguments have broken down there isn't a doubling every two years for the very reason stated above Solar and wind even in 2021 are still not competitive and with no government subsidy their deployment rates crash just look at the UK/Germany/Italy solar deployment remove the subsidy and the installations crash The reality is for solar and wind to be economic the price has to fall to around €£ 30/MWh all in and totally subsidy free which in 2021 doesn't work Can solar get to that price point? Maybe but the storage problem still limits the quantity of the market that solar can take to about 12% of the annual eletricity demand More promising is offshore wind power. At 50% capacity factor and geographical dispersion its possible to get a national grid to 55% wind power and with interconnectors its possible to increase that towards 75% wind power with little need for mass battery storage. By 2030 offshore wind will probably be cost competitive with marginal gas generation and as such can take 50-80% of the electricity generation market of Europe and perhaps other net fossil importing antions like Japan etc
And electric vehicles that don't break down - there goes the mechanics (small businesses) and the petrol stations. The gap between teh 1% and teh rest of us is already at its widest. How can unemployed people even afford this new tech regardless of how cheap it gets?
Perfect. Everyone should see this.
Well done Professor!
Great to hear again your updated thoughts on the coming clean disruption - makes my planet-earth-loving heart beat a bit more easily. Hope you can come to South Africa one day soon to educate our energy moguls too!
Batteries don't solve the intermittent problem with PV
It's not about storing todays output to use the same night. That is daily storage which will help allow more solar and wind into the grid but it doesn't allow total displacement of fossil fuels
To totally displace fossil fuels you need seasonal storage which means this summers solar PV is stored to use this winter. Thats really not possible as the scale is absurd and you only get 1 cycle per year or 20 cycles in the life time of the pack
Even if the battery cost just $20/KWh so 10x cheaper than today that is still far too expensive for seasonal storage
This video is 5 years old and the solar arguments have broken down there isn't a doubling every two years for the very reason stated above
Solar and wind even in 2021 are still not competitive and with no government subsidy their deployment rates crash just look at the UK/Germany/Italy solar deployment remove the subsidy and the installations crash
The reality is for solar and wind to be economic the price has to fall to around €£ 30/MWh all in and totally subsidy free which in 2021 doesn't work
Can solar get to that price point?
Maybe but the storage problem still limits the quantity of the market that solar can take to about 12% of the annual eletricity demand
More promising is offshore wind power. At 50% capacity factor and geographical dispersion its possible to get a national grid to 55% wind power and with interconnectors its possible to increase that towards 75% wind power with little need for mass battery storage. By 2030 offshore wind will probably be cost competitive with marginal gas generation and as such can take 50-80% of the electricity generation market of Europe and perhaps other net fossil importing antions like Japan etc
And electric vehicles that don't break down - there goes the mechanics (small businesses) and the petrol stations. The gap between teh 1% and teh rest of us is already at its widest. How can unemployed people even afford this new tech regardless of how cheap it gets?
Very insightful lecture . The facts and figures support and prove your assertions right. thank you very much for elitighting me
very promising and futuristic....wonder what the oil rich countries are going to do for their forex earnings...
Kudos Professor - a great presentation - however, let us be more realistic about timelines of adoption
Very interesting.
Tesla car has way more than 18 moving parts. Brake system alone has more than that. Maybe 18 moving powertrain parts.
Sep 2017 is starting to happen
wow I wish i was there.