Which One of These Popular Stocks Would I Buy?
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- Опубліковано 5 чер 2024
- 📈 For my private stock portfolio & revealing insights into my investment strategy, head over to: / theswedishinvestor
DISCLAIMER: The content on The Swedish Investor is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. All investment strategies and investments involve the risk of loss. Never invest money that you can't afford to lose. Any reference to an investment strategy’s past or potential performance is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation or as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit.
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Yes, you read the title right. This video is not theoretical, nor is it based on a book. This is a practical video in which I'll analyze some of the most popular stocks out there - Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. I'll look at these sought-after companies through my lens of value investing to see where I’d be most likely to put my own money today. The winning stock will be crowned the "King of the Hill".
Before we get to the stocks, let me present the framework that I use to evaluate publicly traded companies. This process has been refined after over a decade of beating the market, and after reading some 100 books on investing, so I hope you’ll like it. What is it, and how does it work? In short, it´s made up of three parts: growth, distributable cashflows, and multiple change. It’s these three parts that create returns for us as shareholders. Let´s go through them one by one.
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🔍 My main tool for fundamental screening and analysis of stocks: app.tikr.com/register?ref=tsi
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:08 Apple
10:38 Microsoft
16:53 Tesla
24:50 Secret Bonus
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My goal with this channel is to help you make more money and improve your personal finances. How to become a millionaire? There are many ways to get there - investing in the stock market, becoming a stock trader, doing real estate investing, or why not becoming an entrepreneur? But whether you are interested in how to invest in stocks or investing strategies for creating passive income with rental properties - I hope to be able to provide you with a solution (or at least an idea) here. Warren Buffett - the greatest investor of our time - says that you should fill your mind with competing ideas and then see what makes sense to you. This channel is about filling your mind with those ideas. And in the process - upgrading your money-making toolbox.
Hey guys! I hope you enjoy this new video format. If it's a hit, you can expect more popular stocks to appear in similar future videos!
It’s been a couple of months since I started to share my full stock market portfolio together with write-ups on all the companies I own. I’ve shared this with you through Patreon, and it’s a community meant for those of you who are into stock-picking and appreciate a hands-on and practical approach to learning and growing.
We’re off to a good start, but I can’t help but feel too many were left out. The biggest reason seems to be the pricing - and that’s my fault. Many of you have expressed a wish to join, but that $45 is too much. Well, I appreciate your opinion, and now we’re making some changes.
I have lowered the price of the tier called “Complete Portfolio Insight” by almost 30%. In addition, and this part is really exciting, we’re introducing a new tier - “Sneak-Peek”. The new tier is $11 and includes all our Deep Dives - thoroughly written reports of every stock in my portfolio. This tier lets you understand my process and reasoning in great detail so you may take inspiration for your own process and portfolio. So, a great deal of value, but for a much lower price.
Check out the new and updated tiers at Patreon! www.patreon.com/TheSwedishInvestor
Cheers!
Great start! however, I still like deep dive video, where you could dedicate the whole video to one company. With 4 companies in one, the dive is too shallow.
Great work. May I please know which software you use to create such amazing videos ?
Can you do a book review and summary on Herbert Tabin The Billionaires Secret on your next video.
Challenge…make another video in three years and let’s find out how correct you were 🧐🧐🧐
Please do more of these. This practical content is exactly what is missing in the space, in my opinion. From all the books I read and videos I've watched I feel like I have an excellent understanding of the mindset and philosophy that goes into good investing, but to put it into practice is really something else still. I loved this video and would gladly watch more. Cheers and thank you!
I'm happy to hear that Dandylion! Cheers for your support!
Thank you for making this video! I definitely agree with the comment above, it is so helpful to see the practical content. @@TheSwedishInvestor
Online gambling operators also have low multiples due to the regulation risk, very significant one. Competition is fierce.
How can that by similar to Microsoft or Apple in terms of risk?
Finally a new video 🍿
If I could only choose one stock for my entire portfolio I would 100% feel safe owning Microsoft for a lifetime.
All in!
Yep it's operating system is a moat
Hey 😊 Been here for a long time and I enjoy every video you share. I also consider you my mentor. I must ask, do you use DCF to determine your buy price? Thanksss and keep making awesome videos.
This video and the "How I Find My Stocks: Step-By-Step Method" were excellent --- please more of these! ("Shears, guys")
This format is great!
Loved the analysis. Thanks for sharing.
Great format. Thx
What an excellent piece of work! Kids should learn and practice this in school. The problem is that the teachers are likely equally clueless.
I am very glad to see that my investment process is very similar to yours.
GREAT JOB!!
Awesome content as always. 😊
Hi Eric. Thanks for another awesome video! 🧡 Thank you for letting us see you and your partners thought process and methods. I love the details! Thanks again 🤩
Great video. Cheers!!
Great video like always 🎉
Crazy how Apple's past success might not guarantee future stock growth. Microsoft's push with Azure is impressive! The AI angle was a neat touch. Curious about Tesla now. Solid analysis! 👍🍏🖥
Love your videos ❤
You need to start seeing Tesla as both a car maker, energy company, technology company, and battery manufacturer.
Stay realistic.
Bettson has 0 moat compared to the 3 giga caps you're comparing it too. I'd rather invest my money evenly in the first free. I also think Buffet would only consider investing in Apple and Microsoft. Tesla would be left out cause of it's current astronomical valuation.
Yeah, Apple and Microsoft are sure low risk good investments. Don't have anywhere as high future potential as Tesla, but thats with tons of variables.
I don think it is important to take Teslas Energy, Insurance and FSD more into account than already done, but nonetheless, its upside definitely doesn't come for free.
One thing to note is that the Swedish investor also made a mistake with his analysis on Tesla. He compared it to legacy auto manufactures like Toyota, VW and GM. The more correct comparison is BYD, Hyundai and other smaller more nimble companies in the transition- primarily the Chinese.
Great video overall though.
Spot-on video. One of the best of its kind I've watched in many months. You can count me in for a Sneak-Peek, too - I could never justify $45* but certainly can $11!
I really like the way that you include wry humour without it detracting in any way from the content. I'm pretty sure most of your viewers (* most people have to have quite a few subscriptions - news, Netflix, Prime etc and although none of them on their own are hard to pay for, they all add up - so thanks for hearing what we had to say....)
Online gambling, a business preying upon human stupidity. Not the type of business I want to be involved in. But I wish you good fortune.
Love the videos. It’s hard to invest in betsson in the USA though.
Thanks for the video! My investment though process is pretty much the same, as I follow really closely Warren Buffett's style of value investing.
My question for you is this: why only 3 years? Munger and Buffett among others, try to calculate ballpark valuations for at least 10 years ahead.
Also regarding your stock recommendation, what's this company's moat? How about risk...? Isn't operating in a very competitive industry with lot's of adversaries?..not to mention it's exposure to a failed state with an unstable & almost anecdotal economy and policy?
Tech is too dynamic to predict the next 10 years. 3 gives us a more accurate assessment.
@@nielpal8086 maybe then the easily disruptaple biz environment that mostly tech companies operate and compete in makes them "moatless" aka a no go for value investors?🤔
Good vid thanks
I am fortunate I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I'm a single parent living in Bn Italy, bought my second house in April and hoping to retire next year at 50 if things keep going smoothly for me.
Yes, congratulations.
I would compare Samsung Electronics to Apple not in terms of the brand and ecosystem lock in, but more on the cap ex intensive and cyclical nature risk of Samsung's semi-conductor business that also takes up a sizable chunk of their business and geopolitical risks. They also have low margin exposure to the display business which has concentrated clients.
Interesting comparison. Although with Apple, you mentioned AI and goggles. But with Tesla you omitted energy, bots, AI, semi, service, supercharger network and the fact no other ev maker makes any sort of profit.
- Lucid: $544,000
- Rivian: $121,000
- Nio: $35,000
- Ford: $32,000 which is the loss per car sold to each company (from the every wonderful Sawyer Merrit of X)
excellent, do more concrete videos like this!!!
I agree! Love this practical educational format!😊
Very nice. Thanks!
what do you guys think of Nvidia ? i think they should be compared on this list :)
Best way to start the week
Ebay deal with Vennabit Token is completed. Presale launches tonight. Cant wait to invest.. Ecommerce and crypto are both part of the broader trend of digitalization and the shift towards online activities.
Thanks for another great new video. I re-watch them ofren so I can really study the information. I am a dividend investor, and Warren Buffett is one of the only investors from whom I take advice. Forget all the conflicting noise from the talking heads on TV! I do Windows, and MSFT is one of my holdings. 😅
consider Peter Lynch as well in that case
@kingbrouwer1534 Absolutely! His book "One Up on Wall Street" is a timeless classic and sits on my bookshelf.
Microsoft for the win! Especially as most of us do not have the time to do extensive analysis every six months on our holdings. I like to buy some solid companies that have a long runway still in front of them. Also love how Microsoft was able to pivot over the past 7-8 years in this online environment. The software biz was dying, so they just changed the model. I think their agility is greater than either Tesla or Apple. Bettson is just too speculative and isn’t in my circle of competence. Great video, though! And I absolutely miss this kind of practical analysis. You don’t have any competitors in this space Eric, IMHO 😊
Sweden has some amazing comp'... ogunsen, concentric, betsson, fortnox, nilorngruppen, lime tech, evolution... just to name a few.
Investor!
You make a good talk about Bettson. Can't find the name or stock symbol at Fidelity or Merrill.
Swedish g is back
Are you really telling people to ignore companies with tangible products and services for a casino?
Eric Mastercard melan 2004 and ~the start of Covid, in Euro terms was a 100bagger. Given that Mastercard was Mastercard in 2004 I believe it deserves a video as maybe the ultimate common stock with uncommon returns!
Vennabit Token presale starting...I am expecting brutal gains..200x.
Whats your view on Evolution gaming below 1000SeK?
Thanks in advance
what about Google, Netflix, and less likely, Facebook, Amazon? How about EQIX, DLR, Starbucks, Public Storage, AvalonBay, O?
Awesome video!
I wonder about these too, in your format. Also, I’m adding LVMH and Disney to the wishlist! 😍
@@Hops_Heaven cool, LVMH because all the rich people buying luxurious stuff so we poor people should be part of the "capitalists" that sell those merchandises? What about Disney? Having some comeback after the recent no-good-movie period? Black Widow kinda suck if you ask me
Maybe seemingly stupid question, but what platform do you use to buy stocks like BETS stocks? Revolut does not find/offer it, and neither does my local provider.
Degiro is usually good for European and US stocks
great video!
Tjenare, jeg har fulgt deg i noen år nå. Likte virkelig denne siste videoen, kan du lage flere slike? Mitt spørsmål var; er dette 100% ditt system for evaluering, eller har mye av det kommet fra noe du har lest? Jeg prøver selv å lage mitt eget system, men det blir alltid for komplisert til slutt. Dette var så simpel at det må nesten kanskje kopieres.
How did we find out the -7% multiple contraction. I did not get it. EV/EBIT=24 and P/E=29.5. From here how do we derive the 3 year total change?
Epic breakdown 🙏❤️🙌🏾👏🏿👍💪🏾🌹🔥🇺🇸👊🏽thank you
please I want to know how you get this equation :CAGR=g+ (D/P) + multiple change -Risk ? is it made up equation or have a scientific origin ?
Awesome 👌 approach 👏 👍
In relation to your Tesla analysis, is there a specific reason that you have deviated so significantly from your overall approach mentioned in the start of the video in relation to growth? You mentioned that you would consider the management team's projections for growth, but haven't mentioned that the Tesla management team has been guiding for 50% CAGR growth over a multi-year time horizon (that's not to say you should model 50%, but wanted to point that out). I was also interested to see that you totally ignored the Tesla energy business. Management has indicated that they expect the energy business to grow to a comparable size to the auto business and growth rates for the energy business in recent years, combined in the current multi-year order backlog for the commercial storage products, as well as the adoption of Tesla's charging standard in North America and progress in VPP/domestic storage all indicate that, whilst not certain, the energy business should contribute very meaningfully to revenues/cashflow in the coming years (by year 3 of your projection, it should be material, at any rate). On top of that you have the potential for extra margin via the insurance business, which has structural advantages over competitors and of course the full self driving (in relation to which, Tesla's data lead look unassailable, I am not sure how anyone else could catch up at this point, but happy to hear contrary views - Tesla may or may not realise full self driving in a reasonable timeframe, but if someone is going to do it, it will be Tesla). Would love to hear your thoughts. Perhaps you view these revenues as being too speculative or not likely to be material in the 3 year horizon?
A three-year period to think about returns might be a bit ambitious; even Buffett likes to think about at least five years. With three years, you are closer to the Wall Street mania rather than an owner-like mindset.
Secondly, why would you like to invest in a company which shows declines in metrics of a multiple? That would mean you have to assess a higher discount rate in the future, and you wouldn't be able to assess a margin of safety.
Furthermore, you could just wait and buy someday in the future when the price-to-value proposition is better (more attractive).
Your model seems interesting and would certainly work well with a quality business if applied with a margin of safety.
"However, it feels like you could be misled when underestimating the multiple compression or lacking an understanding of why this occurs.
I have reservations too.
Tjenare hoppas allt är bra med dig. Vad menar du med distributable cashflow
Hello
I had bought stocks of coca-cola, apple, amazon , bank of America, Pfizer, Paypal, general motors ( those stocks are the main part of my portfolio) and stocks of Verv therapeutics,teradyne , twllo, robin hood ( the smaller part of my portfolio.
Unfortunately since buying those stocks their prices are significantly decreasing for example GM,PYYPL and Pfizer had decreased more than 20% and my total portfolio loss is about 15%.
Another problem is I used margin by a percentage of 50% of my money meaning that one third of my stocks is by margin.
What can I do in this hard situation?
Should I just be patient and everything will be ok in the future and make for my losses or shall I sell one third of my stocks and close the margin suddenly or decrease it gradually?
Is there any advice in this hard situation ?
.
I would recommend to close the margin with the stocks that you would not buy again today. Then start „investing“ by owning the stocks directly (no margin trading) or buy a world fund as base to worry less.
Thank you 😊
I love your content
Do a part 2 for this
I’m a huge fan of your channel however, this was a very superficial look at TSLA. I think there’s going to be some buying opportunity over the next year so, I hope you change your mind. Would be happy to chat more.
May Betsson replace the forcefully gone Swedish Match?
Having a look at it there is not much growth in Profits! Sales go up but profits not so much. Also the share count is not decreasing. Is it a script dividend?
I like how all the tesla fanboys talking about how good tesla is without watching the video to see the actual end result😂
Well to be fair, while the video is by all means correct, it doesn't really take everything into account. Looking 3 years into the future, sure, most of what he said is true. He did draw wrong comparisons to the industry, implying that Tesla could be overtaken by its legacy peers, which certainly can't happen in 3 years, or the foreseeable future. Plus, little focus went into the FSD sales, which is expected to materialise in the next 3 years- to a certain extent. The real area he missed out on though was Insurance, and most of all, Energy.
Cars can only get tesla so far alone, and its quite amazing that looking at that alone almost makes it a decent buy.
@@sebastianorye2702 he has a 10+ years of track record of beating the snp500 , that's almost as amazing as Elon musk track record as a ceo
@@valuabletips560 Im not doubting his tack record or his ability as an investor. That was never the intent. I just noticed he compared Tesla to legacy automakers, who despite popular belief aren't Teslas competitors. Plus, he overlooked Tesla charging, Energy, and insurance as business contributors within the next few years.
Also, while he mentioned FSD, for tesla to make money on FSD, they just need it to work at a reasonable level so people actually find value in using it, something many of the beta testers feel that they are getting closer too. Instead, he went and looked at when Tesla could possibly achieve Full Self Driving as a whole product. There his analysis wasn't wrong, but it overlooks what i just mentioned.
And i guess finally, he didn't put any weight into Teslas moat in manufacturing prowess. To get where Tesla is right now with its secured and heavily optimised logistics chain and manufacturing abilities is not easy. That is really what makes Tesla, well Tesla. Without that, nothing will work, and others are only starting to copy their multiple year old partial casting, with the aim of only using it in a few years. By then, Tesla has moved on.
Anyway, his overall comparison is true, Tesla while a numerically better company in terms of growth, it has far to much variability in the market to make it as safe as Microsoft or Apple.
I like your method very much, more of the same would be great! Thanks!
What about Kindred Group? Betsson’s competitor 😃
I disagree with some of your Tesla analysis and I think it represents a limited understating of the company. Tesla is not valued as a car company so comparing it to other companies like Toyota and BMW doesn't make sense IMO. Tesla is valued as a data and tech company and consequently it is lumped in with "big tech" (and the "magnificent seven" in 2023). Tesla's primary source of revenue right now is automotive and I get that but it should be seen as a tech innovator in the area of cars, autonomy and related software much like Apple was for cell phones back 15-20 years ago. People misunderstand that today kind of like the iphone was misunderstood when Apple fist unveiled it.
It's not a good idea to invest with too much emotion. There are three factors that affect a stock's long-term movement: the total amount of money moving in the market (macroeconomic factor, like how almost all companies increased in value by multiple folds in 2021 as a result of the Fed lowering interest rates), the company's assets and operating income (microeconomic factor, like how Coca-Cola's stock is steadily rising), and the story that this company could give to people (like the cryptocurrency boom between 2020 and 2022). It's not a good idea to overvalue the "story" component only during investing, especially when everyone else in the market has already considered the potential of AI and bought Tesla in the previous months before you decide to buy it.
Naturally nobody should invest with only emotion, I agree. I did not say that you should buy Tesla or that it deserves its premium valuation which is up for you to decide but the analysis jn the video is faulty because it is being lumped in with BMW when its actually big tech, even if you think that doesn't make sense that is just how it trades. Tesla has been collecting data for years on autonomous driving with every Tesla sold. So you're not getting anywhere IMO by comparing it to ICE companies.
do you think that betsson is better than evolution? Why?
Thanks so much you ❤ i am also mostly interest in investing . Thanks for help me in all investing knowledge and i hope you also help me more in investing knowledge . ❤ all the investing courses knowledge teach for me ❤❤ thanks so much❤
I’d pick the company where about 800 years of profit is priced in, and which is run by king joffrey with a middle age crisis and enemies in pentagon and the sec
Hi. I really appreciate your content it's great Thank you. Can you make video about is it good to invest using debt? I saw a lot of people saying Warren Buffett is wrong about this point and i want to know the truth about it
if you can’t figure out the answer yourself, you probably shouldn’t do it.
@@lennard3204i saw a lot of opinions but i believe it's good of it's really low interest i don't know if that's right?
It is not clear how you arrive to 5% for Distributable Cashflows and -7% for Multiple Change. (talking about your first Apple example),
Nice video. Agree with analysis... However sponsored content at the end was unnecessary... I'm never ever going to put my money in online betting websites
Do any of you know in the comment section if dividend pay-child cash flow is the same as free cash flow, i.e. ownersearing operating activities-capex
It would have to be Apple for me, then Microsoft
Rivian for me. 💪
What about Fortnox AB? Way better business than gambler.
For MSFT you missed elephant in the room - OpenAI and ChstGPT. It can be bigger than today's MS.
Fortnox AB expensive and slowing growth.
Microsoft will buy it out if it gets too big
@@Kevin-sr8yx microsoft already has 30% of it and integrated it with windows
@@Mantos777 at some point they will copy it to other Nordic countries.
MSFT benefits the most from OpenAI because it has the closest relationship with it (for example, financial investment and infrastructure assistance). None of OpenAI's business disturbs MSFT's moat, and MSFT can quickly catch up with the trend if AI actually soars.
Big highfive from korea :)
great video, investing in gambling industry though..
Good growth but not a huge fan of Bettsons debt level
Great content, How do you calculate annual multiple contraction %?
Cant wait for Vennabit Token to launch!
Betsson -12% since upload. Guess its an even better time to go for it now? >.<
But actually good content
Tesla dominant supercharger network and agreements with Ford and GM is raising eyebrows. Consumers can buy the hardware anywhere, but they are all refueling at the same place? Interesting?
Brings to mind the printer business. You can buy a printer itself relatively cheap but open your wallet when it's time to refuel?
What about Walmeta? Edit: I was gifted a share of microsoft when I was 7, il never let it go.
Tesla is not a car company...
Your aapl and msft valuation suggests the market is completely irrational with the 2 biggest companies on the market. That's not impossible, but it's very unlikely. I think you were overly optimistic with msft.
In your eyes Tesla is just a car company.
Not even in the energy business!
To me it seems odd to not put any value of those things the company itself value the most.
Most experts think Tesla has a pretty large gap to those you mentioned as their competition. That's an interesting difference, showing how economists and business experts differ.
But maybe that's what "value investment" means.
It would be interesting if you revisit these things in 3 - 5 years. But I guess you won't.
Yeah, but what you have to understand, Tesla is NOT a EV/Car Company. They have many irons in the fire.
Credit where credit is due 👏🏽
Haaaah! putting money on a gambling company... pfffttt
Betsson might beat Microsoft in terms of the CAGR. You forgot to mention that it doesn't pay a dividend currently lol.
Betsson does pay a dividend, it's just executed in a strange way so some stock screeners show it as share repurchases :)
All of the above
I don't own any....yet but the analysis on Tesla was completely wrong for so many reasons.
And it's not even fair to compare Tesla to Apple and Microsoft, simply because the other two have thier moat, Tesla are still building thiers. Not even mentioned who owns the companies
@@ldnsolja4914 Well to be fair, while i agree that the Tesla analysis wasn't perfect, it certainly did encompass most of reality, that is if we only look 3 years into the future. Remember, more than anything, this is a risk to potential earnings assessment, so anything that has a-lot of variables is lowered.
obvious tesla, because they already monopoly car electric charging market
Regulation will not allow them to abuse this monopoly. Antitrust will send some letters to Tesla HQ as soon as Ford complains
@@thetaomega7816 They can't. Tesla have opened the standard in the US, and have allowed peers to utilise their charger or charing station pretty much globally. While they are reaching a monopolistic position, they aren't there yet, and if at all, it will take many years before they are hit by any anti trust suits.
Still a developing rapidly growing market, and anything that can pause it won't happen in the foreseeable future.
Reading only the tittle and thumbnail I'd say neither three.
None ot them look at REITs there are some great oppurtunities out there but these are not.
Hello Erik I have sent you a thumbnail on your email for this video I hope you will find it help full.
The irony that the best company suggested by a market analyst like yourself is actually a betting company is hilarious.
I believe Vennabit Token will be a game changer!
I believe Vennabit Token will be a game changer.
Vennabit Token is going to the moon! Ecommerce and crypto can help to create a more equitable and decentralized industry
Is the mystery company Betsson AB?