Where To Invest 2024
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- Опубліковано 20 тра 2024
- In this video, I look at where to invest in 2024: which countries, which sectors, gold, bonds or other asset classes and provide an overview of valuation across stock markets. Additionally, as it's forecasting season again we can poke some fun at last year's broker forecasts to look at how well they have performed as well as examine their predictions for 2024.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:35 US Equity Valuation
04:45 US Earnings
08:29 Country Valuation
11:15 US Sectors
13:13 Gold
14:38 Corporate Bonds
16:16 Monetary Policy
19:07 Asset Classes in the Decade Ahead
21:40 Base Rates
22:40 Analysts Forecasts
25:52 Conclusion
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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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Just buy the whole market. That is Ramins core portfolio - any attempt to beat it will probably be futile. Then go and spend your time doing something you enjoy
What global index fund does Ramin have?
@@Gump1Gump2VHVG
What global index fund does Ramin have? My FA is Amy Ennpress Ellas
@@Gump1Gump2 his core holding is in VHVG.
Agree this is all a wate of time
What an incredible, comprehensive analysis! Thank you!
Hi @djayjp Thank you for watching! Ramin
I second that. Good to know that stocks are toppy and also that as the dollar weakens gold will likely gain.@@Pensioncraft
Just discovered you yesterday, and you sir are now my favorite UA-camr. You explain things in much more details than anybody else and you provide a lot of useful knowledge. Thank you.
Welcome aboard! @ramzi0
Great content, very well thought out and with an impressive statistical base. We will have fun with the industry predictions for 24, no doubt. Hope 2024 is kind to everyone's portfolios.
Not even one forecast has been right in the past, truth is no one knows the future
Completely agree! Best we can do is make educated guesses
The part about "cheap" and "expensive" countries is most interesting here. Basicly the market is saying - as a collective voice that votes with money - which countries they expect will likely perform good and bad. This is a good addition to any fundamental analysis, one that I will be using myself.
Just the video I wanted!
Thanks Ramin 😊
My pleasure @stevievorce648 and thank you for watching! Ramin
This channel is astonishingly good - thank you so much Ramin.
Glad you enjoy it! @southseameanderings9489
Happy New Year, Ramin! Thanks for this great overview of the coming year.
Happy new year! @JT_Soul
Happy New Year when it comes to Ramin, the back office team - and the dog! And thanks for all that you do here, very insightful.
Happy new year! @roberthorsford4266
As always, great and educational content
Thank you @navidr2811 I'm pleased you liked it! Ramin
It was another year of precious knowledge for free. Thank you very much.
Glad it was helpful! @freewind1977
Sir, your tremendous work with this channel adds real value to the world. Keep it up please!
Thank you very much! @R3sp3ctMyGam3
Thank you, so much good information here.
Glad you enjoyed it! @kevinu.k.7042
Ramin - Happy New Year to you and your team! Your take on 2024 has me guardedly optimistic and your analysis of sectors and global EM has been enlightening. Question: you mention prices tend to “revert back to the mean” frequently. Is there a metric that can be used to gauge that, such as the 200-day moving average?
Yes! The most common one I have heard when talking about reverting back to the mean is the 200 day SMA
30 minutes of pure joy!
Thank you @andreaisonline I'm pleased you enjoyed it! Ramin
Steady on. I told you to lay off the gherkins for a couple of weeks.
Phenomenal, thank you for this great video
Glad you enjoyed it! @sasanhibiri9063
Huge fan of your content! I’d love to hear your thoughts on Fed Repo rate / SOFR and whether we’re reaching dangerously high rates, and if we are, what are the consequences?
Excellent video. I'm curious about the developed world global fund in your core portfolio Ramin. Do you not see a considerable benefit to including emerging markets or is it because the fee is so much lower it worries you less to be slightly less diversified?
Great content, I manage £1.2m of SIPP and ISA portfolio and I love this UA-cam channel as it really helps me make my investment decisions. Keep it up!
Well done, Andy! I'm managing the same but £300k of that is still outside of SIPP and ISA. I'm migrating as much as possible of that into my ISA - but it's growing faster than my annual allowance, so I think it's stuck in tax-land at least until, and well into when, I retire....
Yeah, I’ve ended up with £300k outside of ISA or Sipp due to buying Shell at £10 during Covid 😊
Annoying to be paying tax on the dividend but it’s a nice problem to have.
I’m very taken with copying Rubin and moving everything into the Vanguard world equity ETF at 0.15 fees. I’ve ten years to retire and his videos have highlighted the simplicity and better likely returns from taking that approach over that timeframe.
brilliant thank you very much for this precious contribution
You're very welcome @annacandrian1165
Outstanding content and commentary. Thank you.
Glad you enjoyed it! @timwood101
Another great watch Ramin, can you remind me which Global Index Tracker you hold at Vanguard. Thanks.
Amazing video, so much great detail and knowledge passed on to us, thank you
Glad it was helpful! @Ray-xj1dc
Insanely good breakdown. The market has already started pricing in rate cuts as interest rates for savings accounts, isa fixed bonds have started falling.
Thank you @mxmus08
This is a great video, Ramin!
Thank you @TomsPersonalFinance and hope you have a great 2024! Ramin
Brilliant as always.
Thank you! Cheers! @nigelplummer
Thanks from Canada!
You're welcome @samakbari1835
As always your comments, analysis and insightful comments are superb and truly objective. Thank you and please continue your work. I truly enjoy your videos and carefully listen to your astute observations. You're the best out there.
Thank you @EdfromCanada that's very kind of you to say! Ramin
Excellent proportionate presentation, thank U🙏
Glad you liked it! @oferzeira8125
Surprised I wasn't subscribed, fixed that now. A great and interesting video, as per.
@Bosshog-WealthHealthBetterment Thanks for subscribing! Ramin
Good broad '24 Investing overview, especially including Country and Bonds vs Equity comparisons. Thank you
Glad you liked it! @mktwatcher
Amazing summary - really professional !
Thanks @user-wz5gb6ui6l
Hi Ramin thanks for the video, would you recommend investing in global/us etf in dollar or gbp?
Regards
I am a European investor and when I was buying ETFs I bought them in my home currency. The science behind it is that currencies will always revert back to the mean, so if you buy every month for the next 20 years, the FX change will be almost negligible (in theory)
Thank You.
You're welcome @DPTrainor1
Superb Ramin and happy new year to you 👍🏻
Thanks, you too! @mattsennett
Another great and informative video.
Thanks again! @iangreasby
I’m going all in on lip stick stocks, it’s a guaranteed ten bagger.
Excellent ❤
Thanks 😊 @tapk1995
I'm just dipping my toe into S&S ISAs and I'm finding your videos very interesting and informative. Subscribed
Glad you like them! @SomeoneSmarter
I haven't had time to watch the vid yet. But the answer is invariably the same as 2023 and the same as every year before that. 😊.
Thanks Ramin for the informative video. Ive never invested before and would like to start . The Vanguard Global equites do i just click on there website register and pick out that portfolio? Thankyou .
Hi @jkb5156 consider putting the investment inside an ISA (savings) or SIPP (pension) account if you are UK based as that way you won't pay tax on the investment income and capital gain. You don't have to buy Vanguard funds on Vanguard's platform in fact it can be cheaper to buy them on other platforms. Find the cheapest platforms using comparefundplatforms.com But once you've done the groundwork and found a low-cost platform you like the choice of fund depends on your investment horizon, risk capacity and risk appetite and investment goals. If you will not need the money for over a decade then a global fund might be something to consider. But stocks are volatile so be prepared for falls and don't sell when they happen. Our community offers a way to learn more and you can find how to join on our website pensioncraft.com/ Thanks, Ramin.
You are such a good person to take the time to reply in such detail to this comment! @@Pensioncraft
So its back to investing in the EuroMillions and hoping for the jackpot !
Seriously, though, great video and I broadly concur but I see a widening of returns between the USA and the UK as the UK gets dragged back by the real rate of inflation. It could even be an effective arbitrage situation except I am concerned about the stupid valuations of the "Magnificent 7" as they are called. Your comment on MSCI Value or even an ex tech tracker would be a decent option IMHO.
Would you recommend just DCAing SNP500 if someone's looking for low maintenance investment portfolio? SNP500 shouldn't be particularly risky or?
Er... so the place to invest is global index trackers with low OGCs and platform fees. As it was in 2023, and 2022, and 2021, and 2020 ... as it was in the beginning, is now, and ever shall be Amen.
@mikerodent3164
Vanguard ftse global all cap index fund in Acc share class then. At least you can tell yourself if small caps do well you have some exposure to everything. Dev, emerging markets, large, mid and small cap, plus growth and value etc
@@fredatlas4396 Vanguard have been getting greedy for some time now. OGC 0.23%. I prefer HSBC FTSE All World GB00BMJJJF91, 0.13%. Ramin seems to have this as his "sole core fund". Me too pretty much.
Packed to the rafters with solid advice.
Thanks @MrMatisse22
Pension Craft = the best overview, key info and good investor advice. Consistantly good.
Easy liserning, easy to absorb the details. Thank you
Glad it was helpful! @peteralterskye9661
Great video Ramin, I’m learning so much from your content - just wish I’d learned all this years ago. You lost me a bit on the cheap / expensive graph though 😂
Glad to help @SHiggy50
Very good content and review...
Glad you liked it! @mbronti
I use roe and roic ratios to screen stocks in US, to find companies with high returns. if you just look at price to earnings, you will not factor in the return on invested capital. I bet it relates directly to how high country price to earnings are valued as well.
That is what my whole investment basis has been developed on and what Terry Smith talks about. By focusing on companies with high ROCE & ROIC, and high Free Cash Flow generation I feel more comfortable I'm investing in great companies like MA, SPGI, or even CROX
Counterpoint: mega caps can keep their PEs, but there can be a valuation expansion for the rest of the market, thus reducing the proportional market cap of mega caps, while keeping their PEs.
Which precise vanguard global fund do yu hold?
Great content. Too optimistic for me though. Would have been good to comment on M2 and the possibility of recession or US earnings fall due to reduced revenues caused by recessions in other geographies.
It has to be said that the PE ratios of US companies are nuts....
Any comment on near vertical increase in US government debt affecting 2024 markets?
Great video. Not sure how one invests in a Global Equities Ex US etf as a UK investor.
There is a fund called Global Equities Ex USA, but it has a fairly high fee
Does Vanguards model of Return Projections include dividends?
Hi @jongreenwood3029 although their forecast doesn't say so explicitly I believe they include dividends otherwise the cross-asset comparison wouldn't be very useful, particularly for things like high yield bonds where a large proportion of the return comes from income. Thanks, Ramin.
Another great video. Gives me a lot to think about. The one thing that wasn't discussed - maybe because it's outside a 'core investing analysis' theme is the geo-political risks. In the next year about 1/3rd of the free world are voting in their national elections. Obviously these risks are dominated by the US election (all bets off if Trump wins?), but the Ukraine and middle eastern conflicts also are likely to have an impact. I simply can't get my head around what will happen with investments because of these.
Can anyone provide details of Vanguard index tracker funds focusing on value stocks; those industries that look cheaper right now like Medicals?
Vanguard don't offer factor funds unfortunately. iShares and Xtrackers have ETFs that track value indexes.
Thank you for the video but Im not sure investing in a global equity fund is a wise choice given the fact that two big markets are over valued ie US and India which presumably represent a large chunk of the investments. Perhaps the conclusion could have been made with a clear focus on "Where to Invest in 2024" ??? with reference to the issues brought up in the first part.
India is 3.8% I.e. not large
@@jamesshafe3108 and the US?
I think the Canadian economist Galbraith, said of market makers, “there are those that think they know that don’t, and those that don’t know”, or to that effect.
The wisest thought that is in everyone's minds today is to invest in different income flows that do not depend on the government, especially with the current economic crisis around the world. This is still a good time to invest in gold, silver and digital currencies (BTC, ETH.... Stock)
Many thanks!
You're welcome! @richardshaw2184
👌
for great macro analysis based on statistics rather than fancy
Thanks @robweinberg9396
2024 will be the year of Tech Equity
So your Asset Classes in the Decade Ahead favors non-growth, but you think the next year may have a last hurrah growth spurt?
Im in the Philippines how can i invest in other countries?
Us small cap value the place to be in 2024?
If only there was a US small cap value ETF trading in GBP 😔
@@TomsPersonalFinance
Interactive Brokers now offer an ISA with low FX fees; that's how I will access ETFs trading in USD.
Excellent analysis as usual. I am staying invested 100% S&P 500. I dont actually trust any other index or country, especially the UK
Even with the potential fallout from the 2024 US election? A republican candidate actively trying to subvert democracy? You don’t think that may be slightly more risky?
Sticking with the 500 and/or total market is generally the best choice for most people. You can't go wrong with those.
@me0101001000 except for the 50% of years when US stocks underperformed international.
@@chrisf1600 since 1990s, US stocks have outperformed international stocks.
Invaluable analysis. Thank you. May watch this twice.
The only complaint I have is that Finnish stocks were not included in comparisons.... would be nice to see it in future videos. Not only because I'm heavily invested in omxh25 but also as of general interest since according to some studies Finnish stock market has been the best performer in the long run...
Rubbish!!
@@crimsonpirate1710
What exactly is rubbish? The part about Finnish equity? Can't post links here, but google: yourself: "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015"...
Finnish equity has had the best returns on all periods in the study; 1870-2015 & 1950-2015 & 1980-2015. Quality companies with great dividends.
🙏
I'm skeptical of the big 7, with the prospect of growth rate decline as they mature. I don't see a clear path for them to keep accelerating at the rates they're at for the long term.
🤣
They show no signs of slowing.
I’ve found Wally!
Thanks for showing the world your lack of understanding.
@@crimsonpirate1710 Fruitcakes out in force on this thread. Not usually the case with Ramin's vids. Not to this extent anyway. Must be the Xmas syndrome: a good argument for keeping the plebs on low wages at work, and not allowing them long hols for their brains to start frying on subjects they'll never understand.
Commodities 😊
cocoa!
Komodo dragons!
Liquified pork juice
👍
Recent youtube videos tell a story of doom in China and Hong Kong. Not sure whats happening there. Official figures may be skewed.
I am amused that vanguard forecast 10 years ahead, to do so is great fun when compared with what then happens, since it is almost always wrong.
Surely, the US market is “expensive” because that’s where the growth is. The UK market is overweight in resources and banks which have lower growth and PE ratios. US banks are valued little higher than other banks. The more highly valued tech stocks are so valued because investors are discounting higher future incomes due to growth. Another point to consider is the extent to which the US market represents the world. The magic 7 obviously are global and represent the vast majority of value in their sector, but even outside of them, the likes of GE, Starbucks, P&G, Pfizer, and McDonalds are global companies that are quoted on the US market. Wall Street has become a proxy for the world with one or two exceptions, and US dynamism and innovation still appears to lead the world.
Almost all the companies in which I invested went bankrupt. I've had enough, I'll never buy another stock or bond. I have a feeling that within a few years we will witness a very big crisis and a change in the economic model of development. Protectionism is replacing an open global economy. Confidence in the US dollar is falling and the Euro is on the verge of extinction. I read a lot of articles to understand the current situation and mostly the situation in the USA. I recently came across George Robertson, who claims that data manipulation allows the Fed to somehow keep the financial system from completely collapsing. My fears are that this will be worse than losing money, here you can already lose your job and even go crazy from the chaos around you.
I agree with you and I understand how investing can be tough at times. I started following Terry Smith's investment strategy after I too lost a lot of money in the market. The strategy focuses on investing in safe, stable companies such as SPGI or MA. Do whatever makes you happy and don't give up!
@@TheCashFlowCompounder Thank you
In Latin American countries, you can achieve investment returns of 16% per year paid monthly, with a 2 to 1 mortgage guarantee
I did everything 'wrong'. I only paid into a pension scheme for 15 years. My savings were all in cash deposits. I retired at 52, and now, at 78, I am over-funded. My savings are going up, not down. My income exceeds my costs, increasingly so. Try explaining that with graphs and simulations...
I'm not sure its rational but I HATE the terms "cheap and expensive" Cheap does not = good...
A good day to drop some dry powder into my global equity fund as it’s down almost 1.5%.
Looking back at analysts predictions is something you should do every month.. just to realise how bonkers the market is and don't take anyones word.
I've a legal and general workplace pension, as with all these pensions there is no advice given or implied, I moved 80% out of there default fund and basically picked a US equity and global equity and a UK and global ethical something, every one of my uneducated picked has beaten legal and generals default fund by up to 38 % ,The default fund up until this past month was showing a negative return for the past 5 years, anyway I've just hit the panic button watching this and moved the US equity into a cash fund as a temporary home as it has gone up 38% over the past 3 years and don't want to loose it,Most of it was made this year ,what do I do now
I'm in the same position, what did you end up doing?
Interactive investor are giving 3.8% on cash balances in sipp accounts , I'll leave it there probably for this year ,then into the sipp with a HSBC FTSE all world , it's global ,emerging markets , accumulation and 0.13 fee in gbpounds
Is it intentional not to say the word “Japan” at any single point of your analysis? How can you ignore the 3rd economy in the world?
Is there an Onlyfans stock? That would surely make me rich as there are so many simps out there! 😂
Over 20% gain SP500 in 2024, I'm still leery of US stocks and will stay with my bond funds and MM a bit longer. I'm sure some sectors will do well next year. I also think the US is close to a recession. If interest rates are cut bonds should do ok.
Ignore the bots and spammers and report them
Now there are a lot of them, and all because the “pie” has become smaller. People have lost a lot of money on stocks and no longer believe in any market.
Why do non of the Pension experts actually show us how Drawdown pensions actually work, they never show us actual logging into a pension pot & how you actually invest the money????
AI NASDAQ S&P500 India World ETFs and SmartCash to park extra money.
Is it just me or has the entire world's stock market been flat since 2007, except for the USA, France, Netherlands, and India...?
Ai, ai, ai and ai.
And Us, Us, Us abd Us! 😊😊
"Cheap countries" - Japan looks like a bargain?
Buffett thought so.
I've had a Japan equities fund as a small % of my portfolio for a couple of years and it's done quite well.
@@stevegeek I'm building out a small cap portfolio using the pie feature in Trading 212. I've got a Japanese small cap tracker with a 15pc allocation.
NTDOY
P/E ratio for next year, but not next 5 years. Many tech companies grow their profits faster than staid value stocks. Where is the innovation? Who is willing to reinvent themselves? Tesla stands out
Invest in mNRA affects class action lawyers.
It'll be a brave man or woman who gets into the stock market at the current level of stock market froth. There are pockets of value eg in the ftse 250 etc.. But when the inevitable crash happens it'll be dragged down with the rest. Few of us can sit and watch 50 percent being wiped off our portfolio.
If you sit too long waiting for your crash , you miss out.
@@johnristheanswerTrue, but I rode the bullrun since 2020, now I'm going to fixed income at 5 percent. Weighing the market risks that offers a far better risk vs reward ratio.
@@johnristheanswer He will though. Fruitcakes will out.
does he mention bitcoin? if not ignore him
What are some of the popular Islamic (shariah compliant) stocks or investment avenues?
AI :)