I feel so bad for yall I’m in Jax and we got off lucky I only had a broken fence and lost power for 2 days. I’m in an old neighborhood so even a tropical storm can cause damage because of the old trees Be safe
So many complicating factors when it comes to how strong it could get. Thank you for always hanging in here with us and providing such good information!
@@SamWilkinsonn It is much easier for MAGA to believe this is weaponized weather that is targeting them. Kamala Harris is planning these attacks with malice in her evil heart. After the storm attack she sends in the FEMA sprayers, and when the will to resist is gone, they come and take away their guns. Then a forced march off to the FEMA camp. This is the MAGA reality.
@@FloridaManMattyI love that song too! Stay safe Matty. My son in the Air Force is near Destin. Fortunately, it looks like he'll be missed by this hurricane. I just hope this thing doesn't go through Florida and then out into the Atlantic to strengthen and run up the coast of GA and hit my Army son near Savannah.
Levi we love you so much brother thank you so much even with the bad news we appreciate the realism you bring and the care that you bring because I've never seen you do anything but be dead nuts on it Our trust in you is in 100% We thank you with all hearts for all you do brother thank you so much please keep doing what you do it seems like you're the best in America
@@rondahildreth1104 hopefully from a 2nd story 😐 nsb down past Mims held all the rain from Ian like a giant pond for most of a month. Best of luck to you and yours 🙏
@@jordanpetersen8629 No second floor lol. In my own home. Been through 8 hurricanes already. The only thing we lost was power and a few shingles. This one is making me NERVOUS!
Always appreciate your synoptic views. I don't see that in a form that I can readily digest in very many places. Even after all these years (since 2005 on Wunderground), I'm continuing to learn from you. Thanks so much Levi for doing these.
Thank you, Dr. Levi. Your continual reporting of events local to us is greatly appreciated. While your job moved you west covering the Pacific, sharing your time, resources and wisdom on our behalf means more than you realize. Be safe everyone.
Thank you Levi. I’m in Orlando, at this point I’m paying less attention to the specific track. We are getting impacted either way. I’m working on hurricane prep today and tomorrow.
Thank you for your wor, knowlege and insites as well as the splinded website you offer. Your work is so valuable to all who take an interest in these storms. Thanks again.
Thanks Levi. I saw so many people being dismissive and scornful of warnings about Helene several days out, saying the videos were clickbait and it would be "a big nothing burger", and I think it took a lot of people by surprise, who are used to downplaying or ignoring meteorologists, which may be why so many were unprepared. I really hope they're paying attention this time, and evacuating if possible when they get the notices. It doesn't help that people in our government are spreading conspiracy theories about nebullous "someones" being able to control the weather, which just adds confusion to people in the path who don't know who to take seriously. Hang in there Florida.
According to the NHC's 3-day forecast there will most likely be a 65% chance of Milton only being a tropical storm by the time it hits the Florida coast on Tuesday night (video timestamp 13:00 shows the full 5-day forecast which is a lot less accurate). With that said, predictions aren't perfect but it currently looks like it's not gonna be as bad as these "worst case scenario" channels report, but that obviously doesn't mean people shouldn't take this any less serious than if they were gonna be hit by the storm of the century.
@@WolfHeathen I don't know if you've noticed, but this is NOT one of those "worst case scenario" channels. Levi's a meteorologist who also lives in Florida. He gives us thorough breakdowns of the models, whatever they show, and is never hyperbolic about it. He always tells us that predictions beyond a few days are subject to large possible variations. Levi is one of the most dependable sources of information on forming tropical systems and the influences that affect them. He also states not to use his videos to plan with, but to follow the NHC's official forecasts. For many of us, having followed him since the old days on Dr. Jeff Master's blog on Weather Underground, Levi's channel is the first place we look for ACCURATE forecasting in the tropics.
@@WolfHeathen I think you're misreading the forecast. Yes, they are giving a 35% prob of hurricane-force winds in Tampa. But that does not equal a 65% chance that Milton is only a tropical storm. It just means Milton might make landfall somewhere else. The forecast clearly calls for it to be a hurricane, and likely a major hurricane, *somewhere* on the Florida peninsula. To quote from the NHC's 4PM discussion on 6 Oct: "Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek."
I like how he gives the other possible scenarios instead of having people think it's probably going to be a cat 1. No it'll be a 5 then weaken. So someone is getting a 3-4
I was watching NOAA updates overnight. This storm strengthened dramatically in just a matter of hours, nearly doubling in size over a 6 hour period on the satellite images. I saw a clear eye form in the middle of the night, and NOAA has now upgraded it to a hurricane. This is a dangerous storm. I would leave the Gulf coast of Florida. This could create record storm surge on the western coast of Florida.
How much Deep Ocean Heat was used up by Helene? Before the oceans became stratified, a storm would have churned up cooler waters and prevented follow-up storms. We've enetered a new epoch and the heat just keeps on coming.
There is a mild cool wake from Helene that Milton will have to cross, but the impact of that is likely to be small in this case because it will cross the wake quickly
According to data I was looking at last night, the subsurface water temperatures are also at record highs. The cooler water that churns up is still over 80 degrees.
I'm in Naples and am very concerned. Raining cats and dogs right now (Sun/6 7PM) the ground's gonna be soaked so flooding from (hopefully just) the southern part of Milton's gonna be an issue. Keep your local high tides in mind Weds PM and Thursday.
I really in my heart of hearts believe once Milton starts to move north east towards florida the wind sheer and dry air will really disrupt its development and the eye will start to fall apart. Ill be suprised if it even has 100mph at landfall very suprised.
Could you comment on the amount of rain in a weakened storm vs one that does not weaken as it comes to the coast??? Will a weaker storm be slower and thus putting out more rain as it crosses the state and causing more flooding…
Thanks so much for this information. I'm really curious how dry air intrusion will effect Milton. Also will the current pocket of moisture that's above Florida currently and be moving Eastward in tandem with Milton and have the ability to stay connected to Milton. Like a moisture umbilical cord.
What factors go into hurricane size? Would we expect Milton to get bigger? Hopefully it remains small, even if that means it keeps its strength, it can hopefully narrow the problem areas.
I’m wondering at what point the probable landfall location will be narrowed down. I’m inland enough that storm surge won’t be an issue but if cat 4 winds are coming directly at me I will haul ass. I guess the interstates will be a crowded mess as with Irma.
It gets narrower the closer we get to landfall, but there's no such thing as a 100% accurate forecast. I would pay attention to whether hurricane watches/warnings get issued for your county tomorrow or Tuesday
Dr. Cowan. Excellent public service! Thank you very much! It is important to know what is making the storms, so frequent and destructive. It would be good to know if you concur with the scientific community. Do you believe the burning of fossil fuels is enhancing the power and frequency of these catastrophic climate events? Please, what is your opinion on this? Thank you very much!
![[Tuesday] Hurricane Milton to Bring Extreme Impacts to Florida Wednesday and Thursday](/img/n.gif)
We all from Florida thank you so much!
Yes!!
Evacuate.
Stay safe, im in Middleburg and we got very lucky. Always have a plan!
@@daveleno5540 Plan: get out of the path before it lands.
Honey, y'all have us at Dothan waiting if ya'll need us! God Bless and prayers for all effected! ❤❤
Very calm, no hype, professional Meteorologist and the very best Tropical Storm Specialist available imo. Great teacher.
Dr. Levi Cowan
As always, thank you Dr. Cowan for the non-bs explinations!
Just the facts. No hype. Thanks Dr.Levi! ✨
By farrrr and wide the best hurricane forecaster/anayst/expert.
Huge gratitude from Florida ❤ boards are up and now wait to know more. You help us stay calm and knowledgeable. Thank you
Here's hoping that it doesn't become as strong as the models show. Be careful.
Pray for us in Tampa.
I feel so bad for yall
I’m in Jax and we got off lucky
I only had a broken fence and lost power for 2 days. I’m in an old neighborhood so even a tropical storm can cause damage because of the old trees
Be safe
Tampa Bay, stay safe! 🙏
Thank you for the consistent updates. We all appreciate it
So many complicating factors when it comes to how strong it could get. Thank you for always hanging in here with us and providing such good information!
Higher Sea Surface Temps (SSTs) and atmospheric temps being the key factors. Thank the greenhouse effect caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
@@SamWilkinsonn It is much easier for MAGA to believe this is weaponized weather that is targeting them. Kamala Harris is planning these attacks with malice in her evil heart. After the storm attack she sends in the FEMA sprayers, and when the will to resist is gone, they come and take away their guns. Then a forced march off to the FEMA camp. This is the MAGA reality.
Thank you for the straightforward, non-bs, non-hype information.
So true I swear some channels are just throwing out insane info just for fun.
Thank you to the best analysis in the business.
In the words of Tina Turner, "You are simply the best. Better than all the rest..." Thank you Levi!!!
100 points awarded for keeping Tina Turner’s memory alive!! “River Deep, Mountain High” has been my go-to spirit motivator for years!
@@FloridaManMattyI love that song too! Stay safe Matty. My son in the Air Force is near Destin. Fortunately, it looks like he'll be missed by this hurricane. I just hope this thing doesn't go through Florida and then out into the Atlantic to strengthen and run up the coast of GA and hit my Army son near Savannah.
I love these...which you would two updates a day....
Levi we love you so much brother thank you so much even with the bad news we appreciate the realism you bring and the care that you bring because I've never seen you do anything but be dead nuts on it Our trust in you is in 100% We thank you with all hearts for all you do brother thank you so much please keep doing what you do it seems like you're the best in America
💯 @Tropical Tidbits
Agreed.
Watching from the Daytona area. Thankful and terrified every time i see a notification from you
Watching from Edgewater. 😳
@@rondahildreth1104 hopefully from a 2nd story 😐 nsb down past Mims held all the rain from Ian like a giant pond for most of a month. Best of luck to you and yours 🙏
@@jordanpetersen8629 No second floor
lol. In my own home. Been through 8
hurricanes already. The only thing we
lost was power and a few shingles.
This one is making me NERVOUS!
Thank you Levi. This is an extremely dangerous hurricane shaping up to be historic. Watch closely everyone and please do the right thing
These videos are always authoritative, informative, refreshingly hype-free and - most importantly - not stuck behind a paywall. Thank you Levi!
Thank you Levi
Hurricane Milton… I believe you have my stapler
Thank you Dr. Cowan
Thank you for your hard work on keeping us tropical folk up to date. We are prepared and praying for the best outcome for all in the path of Milton.
Appreciate your non hype! Thank you!
Thanks for the update.
Always appreciate your synoptic views. I don't see that in a form that I can readily digest in very many places. Even after all these years (since 2005 on Wunderground), I'm continuing to learn from you. Thanks so much Levi for doing these.
My cats think that I can control the weather. I wish they were right.💔 Pensacola Beach Florida sends love, hope, and protection from this storm.💪✨🙏
Oh TT!!! My favorite weather channel!! Cheers.
Thank you, Dr. Levi. Your continual reporting of events local to us is greatly appreciated. While your job moved you west covering the Pacific, sharing your time, resources and wisdom on our behalf means more than you realize. Be safe everyone.
Dude. Thank you for you, your site, and your knowledge.
You sir are a hero.
Thank you!
Thanks from Palm Beach County keeping us informed this Hurricane Season!
Land along the coast is saturated-some people have been flooded out the past two storms so Milton is really a kick in the ass…
Thanks for this information.
During hurricane season there is only 1 man that can put me at ease, thank you for your devotion Dr Levi Cowan, may God continue to bless you.
Dr. Levi Cowan....Simply the best'
Thank you, as always, Dr. Levi! I recommend your channel to all my friends and neighbors here in CF.
Where is cf
Thanks Levi 💜🌀
🙏 For florida...my ppl are going through it :(
Thank You Sir 👍👍
Thank you Levi
Your a blessing 🙏
Praying for all of ys in Florida ❤🙏
Appreciate the no-nonsense analysis
Thanks, Levi!
Thank you. These shifts will matter greatly around the Tampa bay area.
Thank you Levi. I’m in Orlando, at this point I’m paying less attention to the specific track. We are getting impacted either way. I’m working on hurricane prep today and tomorrow.
Good for you - stay safe this week
Thanks again for the 100th time and growing.....you are pivotal to my decisions when a storm is going to impact my area
Always love watching your videos! Thank you as always Dr. Cowan!
Excellent update….thank you.
Thank you sir
Thank you for your wor, knowlege and insites as well as the splinded website you offer. Your work is so valuable to all who take an interest in these storms. Thanks again.
Thank you for giving us clear understandable information. We're in Marion County watching so we can decide what to do.
Thank you Levi for the update
Thank you Levi.❤
Thanks again! Much appreciated......again!
The best tropical storm/hurricane information is right here. Thank you, Sir.
Thanks Levi. I saw so many people being dismissive and scornful of warnings about Helene several days out, saying the videos were clickbait and it would be "a big nothing burger", and I think it took a lot of people by surprise, who are used to downplaying or ignoring meteorologists, which may be why so many were unprepared. I really hope they're paying attention this time, and evacuating if possible when they get the notices. It doesn't help that people in our government are spreading conspiracy theories about nebullous "someones" being able to control the weather, which just adds confusion to people in the path who don't know who to take seriously. Hang in there Florida.
According to the NHC's 3-day forecast there will most likely be a 65% chance of Milton only being a tropical storm by the time it hits the Florida coast on Tuesday night (video timestamp 13:00 shows the full 5-day forecast which is a lot less accurate).
With that said, predictions aren't perfect but it currently looks like it's not gonna be as bad as these "worst case scenario" channels report, but that obviously doesn't mean people shouldn't take this any less serious than if they were gonna be hit by the storm of the century.
@@WolfHeathenhope for the best, expect the worst
@@WolfHeathen I don't know if you've noticed, but this is NOT one of those "worst case scenario" channels. Levi's a meteorologist who also lives in Florida. He gives us thorough breakdowns of the models, whatever they show, and is never hyperbolic about it. He always tells us that predictions beyond a few days are subject to large possible variations. Levi is one of the most dependable sources of information on forming tropical systems and the influences that affect them. He also states not to use his videos to plan with, but to follow the NHC's official forecasts.
For many of us, having followed him since the old days on Dr. Jeff Master's blog on Weather Underground, Levi's channel is the first place we look for ACCURATE forecasting in the tropics.
@@WolfHeathen I think you're misreading the forecast. Yes, they are giving a 35% prob of hurricane-force winds in Tampa. But that does not equal a 65% chance that Milton is only a tropical storm. It just means Milton might make landfall somewhere else. The forecast clearly calls for it to be a hurricane, and likely a major hurricane, *somewhere* on the Florida peninsula. To quote from the NHC's 4PM discussion on 6 Oct: "Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek."
Your in-depth explanations are appreciated.
THANKS Dr. Levi!
I like how he gives the other possible scenarios instead of having people think it's probably going to be a cat 1. No it'll be a 5 then weaken. So someone is getting a 3-4
get prepared people !!!
followed u since the weather underground forums.. im in tampa
I was watching NOAA updates overnight. This storm strengthened dramatically in just a matter of hours, nearly doubling in size over a 6 hour period on the satellite images.
I saw a clear eye form in the middle of the night, and NOAA has now upgraded it to a hurricane. This is a dangerous storm. I would leave the Gulf coast of Florida. This could create record storm surge on the western coast of Florida.
Thanks Doc! You’re an invaluable resource for hurricanes!
Thank you.
Thank you Dr. Levi! From Florida! 🌀
How much Deep Ocean Heat was used up by Helene? Before the oceans became stratified, a storm would have churned up cooler waters and prevented follow-up storms. We've enetered a new epoch and the heat just keeps on coming.
There is a mild cool wake from Helene that Milton will have to cross, but the impact of that is likely to be small in this case because it will cross the wake quickly
According to data I was looking at last night, the subsurface water temperatures are also at record highs. The cooler water that churns up is still over 80 degrees.
Thank you Levi, for the great overview! ❤
It just developed 2 hot towers on either side of the center. Here we go.
Thanks Dr. Cowan you are very informative and great information and direction you give us let it not go unnoticed!!
Thank You for your report.
Thankyou si much!
As always thanks from the Ormond Beach area
I'm in Naples and am very concerned. Raining cats and dogs right now (Sun/6 7PM) the ground's gonna be soaked so flooding from (hopefully just) the southern part of Milton's gonna be an issue. Keep your local high tides in mind Weds PM and Thursday.
Thanks best updates ever!
Preparing here in Tampa. Thanks for being my go to weather man for all things hurricane ❤
❤🤍💙 Thank you, Dr Cowen.
Tornado threat? Or because its potentially faster moving less opportunity for tornadic development?
Thanks Levi
I really in my heart of hearts believe once Milton starts to move north east towards florida the wind sheer and dry air will really disrupt its development and the eye will start to fall apart. Ill be suprised if it even has 100mph at landfall very suprised.
My parent’s house on Sanibel got flooded from Helene. I fear this will be far worse for Lee County.
Yes. They will be on the down wind flood surge side. Be careful.
That is my worry too. Regardless of landfall location or strength the onshore flow is going to stack water up from Naples to Tampa Bay.
Could you comment on the amount of rain in a weakened storm vs one that does not weaken as it comes to the coast??? Will a weaker storm be slower and thus putting out more rain as it crosses the state and causing more flooding…
Thanks so much for this information.
I'm really curious how dry air intrusion will effect Milton. Also will the current pocket of moisture that's above Florida currently and be moving Eastward in tandem with Milton and have the ability to stay connected to Milton. Like a moisture umbilical cord.
Dr Cowan...please tell me it will go south of St. Petersburg!
Great analysis thank you. How often do you update?
This one has me sweating
The track its on seems a bit uncommon. Anyone know how many other storms form in the western gulf and then track due east?
Man made. Pure evil. People are asleep and don't question anything anymore.
NHC updated surprisingly to 80mph Hurricane Milton, watching closely!
What factors go into hurricane size? Would we expect Milton to get bigger? Hopefully it remains small, even if that means it keeps its strength, it can hopefully narrow the problem areas.
Hope for the best but expect the worst
Watching from SE coastal Ga
hi Levi what can brooksville fl 50 north of tampa expect as far as impacts on current track?
We’re still 3 1/2 days out. The accuracy you’re looking for does not exist yet. Prepare for the worst.
Is there any chance someone can explain “above ground level”? Is that relative to where the ground is at that point, or above sea level?
No one is INVINCIBLE BUT AWARE✌️‼️🤍🕊️
I’m wondering at what point the probable landfall location will be narrowed down. I’m inland enough that storm surge won’t be an issue but if cat 4 winds are coming directly at me I will haul ass. I guess the interstates will be a crowded mess as with Irma.
It gets narrower the closer we get to landfall, but there's no such thing as a 100% accurate forecast. I would pay attention to whether hurricane watches/warnings get issued for your county tomorrow or Tuesday
Sounds like very good advice
How do you access the storm surge model product? Did you refer to it as " Sarah"?
Of I see, CERA
What are the chances of a brown ocean effect? Worried about the already saturated Florida soils.
That's a very interesting question. Raining across Florida right now. Hot enough, not sure.
It's always raining over Florida between June 1st and January 30th.
There’s a reason you’re not a meteorologist.
51 different versions of the future.....................how many flavors does Baskin Robins have? Thanks for the news
How much does that very warm loop current channel play in the future model predictions for rapid intensification?
It will likely cross the state and hit the east coast as a hurricane . Florida is only 150 miles wide.
Maybe now the GoP will approve more funding for FEMA …
They are all about budget cuts to pay for their tax cut giveaways to rich people.
No can do, that will cut into the Ukraine and Israel relief fund. Need that money to fuel more foreign conflicts and less for you gosh darn Americans
Dr. Cowan. Excellent public service! Thank you very much!
It is important to know what is making the storms, so frequent and destructive. It would be good to know if you concur with the scientific community. Do you believe the burning of fossil fuels is enhancing the power and frequency of these catastrophic climate events?
Please, what is your opinion on this?
Thank you very much!
Odd hurricane season for sure. Lots of curveballs, oddballs. Head on a swivel here in Jacksonville.
is there a chance dry air and sheer does not increase so he landfalls in tampa as a cat 5?