India Must Have 6 Months Of Munitions Reserve: Dr Amit Gupta |
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- Опубліковано 20 бер 2024
- Dr Amit Gupta wears many hats. Currently a Senior Adviser to the Forum of Federations, Ottawa, he has served as senior faculty and Visiting Fellow at top-notch institutions like the USAF Air War College Alabama and Sandia National Labs, to name just a few, and his areas of expertise and interest span global security, conflicts, popular culture, politics and sports.
In New Delhi to deliver talks at think tanks like the Center for Land Warfare Studies and the Observer Research Foundation, he took time out to talk to StratNews Global on the lessons for India from the conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, and why New Delhi needs to be careful while choosing partners for its Atmanirbhar projects.
Noting that modern wars are incredibly expensive and long-drawn, he recommends a stockpile of at least six months worth of strategic munitions.
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India need at least 2 years of ammunition storage.. based on ukraine war analysis.. russia with huge natural resources is struggling to generate ammunition..
No one can have 2 years of reserves. Even Russia hadn't
Instead of holding 2 year's worth of ammunition, it might be a good idea to hold enough raw materials (explosives, metals, chemicals, computer chips, rubber, fuel etc.) to last over a year on top of holding ready armaments and materiel for six months as Dr. Gupta says.
WTF you are saying, even USA can't store ammunition for two years
So India is looking for a war the way the headline is phrased?
India should aim for 1 year backup...and ability to replenish this stock also within 6 months time...for that Military Industrial complex has to be strong in India.
Russian war has crossed two years so you think about that in our contest with a china sponsored enemy Vedging war on behalf of him?
Very good discussion. I liked the ideas given by Dr. Gupta. Hope GoI and EAM is listening to this and incorporates some of these. Dhanyavad Stratnews Global for this discussion. Jai Hind Jai Bharat 🇮🇳 🇮🇳🇮🇳
Pearls of Wisdom from Dr Gupta. Even India's best friends will want a profit on any Indian war. 150%, because you are our friend. Ironic bur realistic. Amazing question - Does India have a partner that won't sanction us? Forget about the US, they will impose sanctions in a heartbeat. Forget about the UK, they have a colonial hangover and by every year are becoming less relevant and more Muslim focused. My disagreement with Dr Gupta is that the Indian diaspora, particularly the Gujarati folks is vastly overrated. India always has a big influence from NRIs but not so much anymore. Fantastic recommendation is to bring back the folks that have retired and get them to contribute to India - very long shot however, unless you have gold on offer. Versus in sport is an appropriate word. Five eyes is not a intelligence unit to be reckoned with. India with the five eyes would have been a strategic move. But I guess the racist hangover will continue for many more decades. Agreed, India can do 70% better on Tourism. Inculcate a culture of Respecting and appreciating the tourists, who bring in money, relationship and culture! Disagree on the 6th Gen Fighter Aircraft - India is inevitably going to build in Barath. Jai HIndh!!
You're wrong on the nri point. Gujaratis 100% still to this day are a giant factor. There are facts and many references for you to look up.
India needs to rapidly improve tourism infrastructure. Vande Bharat Kashi Vishwanath Varanasi Ghat is a step in the right direction and we need more than double of that sooner.
Today we are capable to do wonders in every field but it's the beurocracy that needs to be reined and work for the masses which is biggest hindrance in India s development
@@ghanvedsingh8946
I think we need to get over the hang-over of blaming the bureaucracy (-the right spelling) for every thing. After all, they are there to do your bidding. It is like the horse of a horse-drawn carriage. If the rider or driver has no idea, what a horse can do! For certain carriages a mule & not a through-bred is the apt solution. This attitude of selective disuse (also) blunts the edge of bureaucracy. Attitude (commenting on bureaucracy - ad nauseum) like this, smacks of lack of responsibility.
This notion that the bureaucracy (or Secretariat) is imbued with all knowledge & know-how is faulty. It smacks of one's inability to select the right person for the right job(for which a modicum of domain knowledge is equally essential). In this age of all knowledge being made available "on-line" (gleaning from open literature), this points to an inability to use that!
"Yadha raja tadha praja". Certain aspects or traits must come from the top, not from the bottom. This is the flaw or mistake. If elections are to be successful & those elected are to be incorruptible (the primary function of any legislative house is to approve the budget - what & how it is earned and what & how it is spent; all else come far later), those who elect them too, must be incorruptible. In a democracy the elected representatives "represent" their electors, in every way. They are a slice of the society (if it isn't so the societal structure is at fault, vide the famous finger-pointing of Dr. BR Ambedkar). In a fully (100%) literate society, all hose filling the legislature houses will also be fully (100%) literate.
How can you say so in regards of 5th generation a/c s case?
Dr. Gupta giving us reality❤❤❤❤
Superb conversation! Hope our policy makers make a note of this.
6 months?? In light of current ukraine hostilities at least weapons for 1 year of intense conflict is needed,
Surprised and dismayed to learn that we asked for PGMs recently during Doklam and Galwan 😳. Do we not make our own smart bombs? What the heck are the DPSUs doing? We need thousands of them as basic equipment, preferably integrated with IRNSS + GLONASS/GPS.
We are paying the price for electing inefficient governments in the early 90s. Mandal and kamandal has done more harm than good and of course the corrupt UPA government of 2004 when we were having scams after scams.
@chilarai1
Imagine - who will design a PGM & who will make them? More primarily, does the Army aware of this deficiency & translated it across, for help (say drdo). It wasn't done. It might have come as an after-thought & now we make them.
Just because someone in the West made a PGM & used it, it doesn't "automatically" mean that India is expected to make one. There is a lot of work to be done (& someone to guide them do it) in between. It is stupid to say, otherwise.
dude mistook smart talk as smart bomb
Your people are poor as fuck and this is what you are focussing on?
Absolutely enjoyed this episode for the very grounded and practical insights. Also surprised that a non-Indian (although of Indian origin) would proffer such advice; when a majority of them are more than eager to sell their country of origin for personal gains. Therefore, Dr. Amit Gupta's assessment of Indian origin US citizens unable to carry water for their country of origin, like the Jews do for Israel or the Armenians did for Armenia, is less than honest. But then, very little ought to be expected of individuals who get themselves an American accent, the moment they land at a US Airport! And that makes Dr. Amit Gupta an exception that underscores the rule!!
Very good discussion and points raised by Dr.Gupta! Apart from supply and logistics which has always been Indian military's bane, no matter if our Generals give an interview to media assuring the nation the "we are prepared for any eventuality" . But the ground actuality is always different be it during Kargil where even shoes, goggles etc needed urgent imports or during Doklam. Another important aspect is the Indian peoples resolve to go to war coz Indian 'civilians' have never experienced hardship of war ever since Independence. No doubt the Indian soldier is battle hardened due to all their experiences during insurgencies etc but the civilian masses may not be able to deal with the terrors of war be it sustained bombardment, supply shortages, financial turmoil etc Indian civilians would need to sacrifice at the levels like the Israelis or like Germany and Russia in WW2 so as to fight and win the war even if it prolongs for years. By appeasing the enemy and talking peace or go to the UN for a ceasefire is an approach Indian governments have followed in past due to civil pressure or lobbies like traders, multi national companies etc. War is the last resort (when all options have failed) but by negotiating peace, Indian civilians and political authority will be only prolonging the issue again rather than have a final resolution or solution.
Amazing Insights! Looking forward to see more of DR. Amit Gupta.
Very insightful discussion. I hope people in the corridors of power are listening.
How long India fought an all out conventional none nuclear war against Pakistan and China? Bangladesh liberation war 13 days, Kargil war 2 months 3 weeks and 2 days. 1965 war 1 month, 2 weeks and 4 days. 1962 war against China : 1 month and 1 day. To assume that an all out non nuclear conventional war along the LAC and IOR against China will last more than 6 months is hard to digest. Even if 2.5 front war takes place. Despite their animosity, both countries have business ties worth more than $100 billion USD at the moment. There will be an attrition-based battle between the Indian army and the PLA along the mountainous area. It is strange to predict that technology will completely dominate high altitude in the near future or at this time. China is a very big nation. India cannot be the target of the PLA, PLA Navy, and PLAAF's entire military deployment. Geographically speaking, they will not have it easy in the Himalayas, and six months is too long for a full-scale conventional war to last when a country's energy and export-driven economy is successfully cut off by a sea route. Many now often see every impending conflict from the standpoint of Russia vs. Ukraine. Russia, China, the Iran Bloc, and NATO are engaged in a protracted war, with Ukraine acting as a proxy. Furthermore, in terms of ammunition, Adani's ammunition center-which is the largest ammunition manufacturing complex in South Asia-as well as SSS Defense, AFK, MIL, and other companies are not all that bad or unable to increase output when necessary.
@MrRonnymangang11
Exactly. A timely rejoinder. I appreciate. Looking at Indian situation (Himalayas aren't Alps, Rockies nor Andes but far loftier like nowhere else in the world) with the European vision on, is a mistake.
Great insight. Most news just gives information. This is great..
Such an insightful discussion! I hope military planners are taking notes of this. No country is your true friend. If we dont help ourselves nobody will help us. As much as we would like not to be involved in any war, but with countries like China and Pakistan its inevitable someday. Its better we fight with our own.
I think a lot has changed since doklam & Kargil & galwan . BJP identified these as strategic weaknesses & the military restructure & creation of a new head post of all armed forces is to ensure we have built up ample reserves for all scenarios, Modi's drive to make in India includes the weapon production levels & maintenance costs. Recently we read of Indian developed mirv's so that declaration is not empty it means production of mirvs is already underway along with Tejas & armaments. The current tension on the lac with pla is going to blow up , by how much depends on CCP , but India must be fully independent of the entire process for missiles away from USA because America is a a dangerous untrustworthy ally.
He pointed most important risk indeginous capacity of ammunition production and storage
Atleast 2 years of food reserves for about 150 crore people. When one means war, electricity supply would cease in major cities. So, every house must be advised to have solar panels atop their houses so that power supply disruption by the state or blockade of gas supply in the sea, dont collapse our kitchens. If this is not done, people will die even if India scores victory in military terms.
Ukraine War has changed modern warfare to no-contact or low contact war. Loitering munition, armed drones, guided artillery fire, missiles & anti-missile systems have added new dimensions. Probability of protracted war has highlighted importance of domestic manufacture & of keeping large inventory.
Last 50years our rulers tied India at par with Pak in defence.the last 10 years seen a sea change in its attitude.thanks to our PM.
Thanks to Dr A. Gupta for having said what he has.
I can assure you no one is buying retirement properties in Vietnam, Thailand maybe but they have heavy restrictions placed on anything but apartments as well. Turkey.. understood but at this point they can accept any cash they can get their hands on. Vietnam has one of the most stringent set of restrictions against foreign real estate ownership. Foreigners get to lease apartments for 50 years, not buy and there are a hundred other problems you will run into with government documentation as a foreigner. This is not a bad thing, Real estate is a disaster in the west, every country should try its best to keep the western money printer cash out of vital sectors of their economies.
The issue of holding of WWR of ammunition cannot be viewed the way a non military man views. There are issues of turnover, specialized accommodation and manpower. India can ill afford to hold six months of reserves. Something which is desirable and practical cannot be viewed alike
Amazing video, exceptional insights by Dr. Amit Gupta
A very honest and healthy discussion. Quite a few expatriates after retirement do wish to come back to India. With a wealth of knowledge they can greatly help the mother country though they might not enjoy the luxuries they are accustomed to.
Thanks
Excellent discussion.
Excellent discussion!!
Really excellent
Very nice and productive discussion
Very informative and helpful information. Are we smart enough to followup
What is the current capacity? 40 days ?
Great
Very practical thought.
Very informative
That's a good point from Dr Gupta,we need stock of ammunitions for atleast six months. We have seen that happening in the Russia Ukraine war,where the Ukrainian army have ran out of ammunitions. We don't want to see such things happening in the event of an war with our Western and Northern neighbour.
We need to heed his advice
Damn this guy is good
But our general are more interesting in serving chandigarh lobby then the nation
The other side of thoughts.very good analysi Sir.
India must have to become Atmanirvar in defence and critical technology areas. But with respect to manufacturing, tread, tourism, healthcare services etc we have lot of untapped growth potential and a long way to go as Dr Gupta has brought out
Really smart guy
Based on current russian war and possibility of 2.5 front war. We need at least 1 year reserve.
Two years of ammunition for large scale intensive war is the minimum for India to win wars with China which always have scale in anything it does, even in war against India.
We not only need 6months war reserves but industrial capacity to sustain a war for twenty years that we expect from America china rivalry s results
👍👍
It's not 6 month looking at Ukraine conditions it's 4yrs , WEPONS,oil, cooking oils cooking gas, Defence platforms, economy, foreign exchange, Food, medical aid, pharmacy, raw material, supply chain management and atmanirbhar Bharat !!!!!
Enthralling discussion I hope the powers to be listen
Why not big companies contribute to set up Gandhi centre it is wonderful idea
Gandhi? Sri Aurobindo much better.
Cant we develop a parallel unconventional war capability? If the enemy can use low cost nuisance system such systems can be used from our side as well right?
Independent India fought all her wars alone and didn't get any support but diplomatic opposition from the West. War with neighbours is the worst proposition for any country. India experienced it. Poverty didn't deter her resolve to fight & win a war. Only in 1971 war, she did get the diplomatic support from the Soviet Union (the precursor of today's Russia). Hence India learnt self-reliance, the hard way. In strategic & military words "self-reliance" (now re-christened Atmanirbhara`ta) is the goal she set for herself, fully aware of the fact that there 'd be no help, forthcoming.
This curious situation, not of India's own making led to her frequent awareness that she is isolated. India's critics (from within & outside) cite this often, some goading her to take up military association with one or the other. In both the world wars, she was part of the British Imperial forces, by virtue of being a subject nation. Yet that experience (to work in tandem with the forces of other allied countries) taught her to be in harmony, with total co-ordination with any other allied army. Her men fought so well in both the wars - acclaimed, appreciated and honoured for the role of her individual soldiers (some nations even recall & cherish this, her role even today). India will continue the proud tradition that she carried through all along her history, cherished by armed regiments of India. Many a time her military units fought till the last bullet (aakhri kartus), but not necessarily the last man. Here is a tradition that values the war equipment with no effort spared in their maintenance & upkeep.
This is not true. I will strongly urge you to read : Ambassador's Journal by John Kenneth Galbraith. Mr. Galbraith was the US Ambassador to India during the 1962 Sino-Indian war.
And why India 🇮🇳 need 6 months of ammunition to fight a war??
to feed the godis ego
Irish, jews are one single entities.. India is multi ethnic country .. plus rule of law should be implemented in India.. all people should be treated equally… not only pro Hindu stuff.
So, Sikhs are not treated as equal to Hindus?
How much extra pampering sikhs want? And also we are seeing and experiencing you people's love in form of temples vandalisation across north America, uk and Australia.
Sikhs are taking Hindu respect for granted. I am betting it will not last for long if it doesn't stop. I am seeing frustration among Hindus for Sikhs. We are feeling cheated seeing open hatred towards Hindus by Sikhs.
Jatt sikh
Yes so true parochialness of Gujratis is well known
Hearing all this I think that we don't need India anymore. The way people are talking seems very non-Indic to me. Can someone tell me what exactly you are defending and who are India's enemies exactly?
India probably doesn't mean the same thing or the same idea to everyone. Either redefine and recontextualize or we go our different ways.
Preacher Amit Gupta. Another one of the "know all" NRI gang.
As though someone subsidized previous war efforts of India.
Calm down. Why don't you address his points directly one by one instead of giving useless 1-liner. He is on point on every issue mentioned. I'm just disappointed he did not address the uselessness of the DPSU sarkari defence manufacturing scheme.
Relax! That's exactly his point. Unlike Ukraine (subsidized by US and EU) or Israel (US), India will have to fight alone. Hence ...
Comments and mindset like these are exactly the reason why he said what he said
Pls have "our won ppl" on your show to discuss National security, defense and home political issue. Understand one thing, no matter what, "the US" or "the WEST" media will never call our Scholars to discuss their matters.
His insight was good, no doubt about that but what's the point if you are not totally agree? We have more smart ppl running our country.
NRIs who served other countries in gov, or taken another nationality should not interfere. Pls spend your RETIRED time in sorting out gun violence, systematic racism or just advocate for H1 process streamlining and see how far you can go...
Being PRO India and Loyal Citizen of India are two different things. How many NRIs willing to surrender their Foreign Passport (a trophy/medal of honor) and willing to serve their motherland?
And English is just a language of communication, good you have command on it.
Punjabi also introduces him self a punjabi, but they all sand in line for OCI, a sikh who introduces himself as Punjabi, when in trouble in the west they immediately become Indian with a drop of a hat …. That is how Hippocratic these people are …. this has all got to do with their education and upbringing.