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Funny enough, its forbiden for us, but how well the psychological behavior of each player and how they react for thier hands and how winnable is the situation, makes the perfect examples on my pyschology research.
Needed to flip a coin the other day and couldn’t find one so I went online and googled coin flip sim. The first one on the list tracks the total flips done to date. It’s over 30 millions and heads ( or maybe tails I forget) is up 55% to 45% or 16.5 millions flips won to 13.5 million flips won. No skill involved here. One side is up 3 million flips over the other. Sometimes even over millions of hands luck trumps skill. It’s a fact of poker people don’t talk about much. Statistics demand that 50% of players are going to run better then the other 50%. Which side you are on in life greatly affects your ability to win in this game long term. The best in the world don’t run -ev over 1 million hands it’s just not a thing.
i Remember when all the pro's where interviewed outside the WSOP about this exact Question nearly all players including Daniel Negreanu all said poker is about 60 % skill and 40 % luck
I would say that the location of any given card in any given shuffle is 100% chance and that what you do with the ones you're dealt is 100% skill. "Luck is the enemy" "Profit = opponent's mistakes - your mistakes"
It’s very similar to card counting in blackjack. You’re taking advantage of variance over time. If you get your chips in with odds of winning the hand just slightly over 50%, you will come out positive over time. Law of large numbers indeed.
The only problem is literally no one plays within their bankroll for law of large numbers to play out I.e. how likely is one to lose 25 coin flips over a million hands? You can do the math but it's not that low...how many people really play with 100 buy ins to withstand downswings like that...definitely not the pros who often sit with 100k....
Poker is luck based, with elements of skill involved. Industry leaders spincase this card game like its some sort of genuis skill fest. But, no matter if it's a single hand or your lifetime career, you're facing 90%luck and 10% skill. In the long run, luck takes out most nearly all skilled players. Less than 1% of the best professional players make money throughout their lifetime. That means that out of a poker room with a dozen+ full ring tables, only one person makes money in the long term. If it were skill based, there'd be a winner at every table. No worries, the losing professionals all have training courses for you, so they can teach you how to win like they do. 😂 Not to mention their own made-up stats, to make things look legit.
If Poker were a game of skill there'd be no debate. No one asks if chess is luck or if sports is luck. There was a time when it could be profitable back when people used to fold you could be really tight and apply enough aggression to convince people to let go of their equity. Now that people know to never fold you're just always gambling.
It is a combination of skill and luck. I learned more about how to play successful poker by study behavioral psychology. It isn't the hand that you have that wins pots, it is the hand that the other players think that you have.
While you're analyzing your opponents they are analyzing you too. So it's not just about cards but people too. So know how to pick your opponents and then you can think about your cards
Poker is about navigating a random set of events and applying knowledge from experience and learning to turn the events to the player's advantage therefore it is a game of skill.
True, and the sportsbook isn't that far off, but while it's a game of skill, it's also gambling. I don't understand where there are all these think pieces asking if it's one or the other.
Yep your just navigating the turmoil ocean waves of poker. Luck definitely plays a big factor. Every hand in poker is predetermined built into the deck and you just have to make the right and lucky decisions. The only thing you have control over is your chip management and when to strike with a bluff or shove all-in and when to call. Instincts are also crucial,knowing when to fold when you have a good hand and understanding your opponent. Winning hands you shouldn't and maximizing the hands you do win. Making the right decisions and getting lucky is the key.
Exactly ! John Chan and Stu Unger didnt end up at the final table multiple times whilst navagtine their way through A HUGE field of guys purely on chance ! When someone thinks that poker is ALL luck or even 90% luck I KNOW i am taking to an moron.
@KeepItSecret WRONG ! IF you understand you can win 80 by calling 20 you got 4 to 1 odds if you know the odds are 3 to 1. Then win or lose you had advantage. I am pretty sure such a basic concept will elude you.
The people who say poker is all luck would probably call a 3bet from a nit OOP with A9o. A lot of regular people (who don’t play for a living) think they’re better at poker than they actually are. And blame their poor performance on the short term “luck” of the game. Real serious winners can crush in the long term.
Chess have nothing to do with poker. I play both. Chess is skill. If you play against a better chess player, he will crush you game after game. But in poker everything can happen. I would say chess is 99% skill. In poker it depends who you play, if both player’s are similar in skill i would say its 80-90% luck, 10-20% skill. I mean you can play against top chess player for a month straight, you will not even be close to beat him in one single game. Meanwhile i can play heads up against Ivey or Negreanu and win some games
Was the Daniel Negreanu/Doug Polk series Live or Online...I feel this makes a huge difference. I still hold that to me, for any standard game of poker, especially Texas Hold'em, for two - four hours which conforms to a typical "poker night", it's going to be 75% Luck, 20% Psychology and 5% Math...if you start getting into the Professional level, a skill pro can certainly use their experience and both math and psychology skills to get the edge in the long run. Does it pay to study? Yes! will it make you a have a winning session every time you sit down at a game..No..
It's funny I had a understanding of poker but always got cleaned out by my friends that are below average. After learning how to day trade and disconnecting my brain from money as long as the R:R I'd proper poker has become quite easy, especially in terms of psyching out my opponents
Yes the optimal strategy involves bluffing and aggression. You walk into a tourney and see ppl flying with all ins. Sure there are skills but its just too thin
@@coolpoolshark bro what? There definetely isn’t, it is arguable that you can gain bigger edge in tournaments since it is much more complicated and player pools in all levels are still pretty bad. But cash definetely is much less variance effected. It is just fact.
@@coolpoolshark yeah I haven’t but I am online player who playes 30-50k hands a month and jacks off to graphs and solvers as someone would say. But I don’t know what that have to do with anything. I don’t have 2k tourneys played either so I don’t have sample size to rely to my own data. Live cash variance is nothing anyways. The tournament structure is the problem when thinking variance here. Busting out of the table makes you lose fuck ton of EV long term and not being able to play with the same people for longer periods is bad. You can ask your coach or google it. This shouldn’t be unknown thing at all.
@@coolpoolshark ”nothing” being huge understandment but for online grinders live players swings are tiny and you should expect much bigger winrate in live cash than in online.
Was doing terribly online and busting or min cashing hundreds of MTTs. I was ahead in all-ins approximately 85% of the time. Admittedly the flips were sometimes fairly close IE 54% against 46%. I started to think I was a fish and was close to quitting. But inner competition made me go to a Live event ran by my online cardroom. I was always confident in my live poker as I am not bad at a few live skills. Anyway I satted in live and played the multi day event and came in the top 10 for five figures out of a field of 400 plus. 45 minute levels. I won back 3X all my Online losses since 2005. The tournament was mostly comprised of mid level to higher stakes ' winning online regs' At last I beat them after taking it for so many years.
A chess engine beats it's opponents with skill it's a machine . In poker RTA or a poker engine will beat another poker player over time with skill .machines don't use luck .poker is a game of skill
I look at it like this. It definitely takes skill and luck but mainly skill. You only have control of how you spend your chips and when to strike and bluff or make that hard call to win the hand. You have to navigate the turmoil ocean that is the poker table and make decisions based on each hand and opponent. Just being patient and making the right decisions will do You well but it can be very difficult. Mixing things up and not being predictable is also important. I love how deep poker is and the depth of the game. Then again you can make the right decisions and still lose. Instincts is what separates alot of players. Combine all of that with good instincts and understanding your opponents and just being lucky and someone can be a very good poker player.
Hes actually a huge loser who owes people lots of money lol he deff loses more than wins but from the looks of clips like this youd think hes crushing it. plays way too loose
The best proof of luck or skill is what oros say when they lose. “Gosh, im so unlucky. Or gosh that bad player got lucky. A great analogy is blackjack. If you are counting cards its still gambling. Even though youncan be a slight favorite in positive counts.
You can do jolly fuck all about the cards you are dealt, you can try to bluff a man if you have shit cards but if he has the best possible hand then he wont give a fuck and will bankrupt you, wether your cards are good or bad is all luck.
Poker is a game of skill with luck added into the mix. Skilled players over the long run will be profitable whereas bad or 'lucky' players can show short term profits but in the long run will be a losing player.
it's not golf, 100% the better player will always win. Poker is still gambling. All-in pre-flop, even aces versus aces, you're still gambling. There's too many different games. Tournaments, cash,if you have an endless bankroll, playing cash. You're probably going to beat the better player that's scared money, playing too high of steaks. There's just too many variables."In the long run", it's still gambling. Those who say "the game has changed". If you're making calls because you have a "blocker". The deck does not care what GTO delusion you've convinced yourself. 1%/2% of the cards that's been dealt, junk folded flop,turn, river, that beats you hurts but it happens, there's not that many cards.
Golf has a sizeable element of luck. (Think about weather changing during tournaments etc). Of course poker has more luck but saying the better golfer will win every time is not actually true.
Poker requires some skill on average but if you're incredibly lucky you can get by without skill and if you're incredibly unlucky no amount of skill will help you.
It's luck and skill. Especially tournament poker you have to be very lucky to win tournaments. In big tournament play you see the same people because very few people can afford a big buy in.
@@anthonyfoutch3152 no. You have to not get unlucky, which I suppose is a form of luck. If you can't beat online at reputable websites, that isn't bc of cheats, btw 😂
@@Tom_Bee_ i never played it but for 300 dollars and it was like they could see my cards. I was only playing one game at a time though. I lost all but $17 and they shut it down. The never took money off my card so I didn't lose anything. it's illegal where i live I've done pretty good with live poker before I retired I didn't get rich but I made a living.
@@anthonyfoutch3152 ah yeah. Small sample size. There are a lot of good players online and you will play waaaaay more hands. I preferred live poker for the longest time but being locked indoors with that disease going around a couple years back changed all that 😂
Don't the solver computers now beat humans 100% of the time in challenges, that would indicate its mostly a game of skill, anybody can beat a solver computer in random hands (luck), but not long term (skill).
It's lucky or unlucky..it's skill if ur working as a team which is happening in every casino u just don't know it...to answer ur question if everyone is skilled it's more luck needed to win. This isn't the 2000s when half the table is fish ..it's usually 90 percent filled with regs waiting to gang up on you.
If you want to discuss numbers. The number of lottery losers is pretty huge compare to people losing everything due to poker... To make a profit from poker you need to win more than once in a while, how many people wins the lottery once in a while? In lottery the odds are like once in a lifetime...
@@tareklegrand7747 **actually I nailed 3 out of 6 twice and and 4 out of 6 numbers with 10 draws for $75 profit! ... With poker, I play about 20,000 hands per month easily. Reality is, you need a volume of about 300000 hands to get enough volume to actually beat out variance.. That's like 2-3 years playing poker straight, to "maybe" eek out a profit... Hendon Mob website(world's largest database tracker for poker players) indicates that less than 1% of all professional cash game players make money throughout their lifetime. Most successful casino owners will tell you 3%. And, poker coaches will straight up make up numbers and tell you 10-40%.. They're all full of it. Reality is that most multimillion dollar winners still end up broke. Out of the entire winning pool, the winners average out less than 4 BB's per hour... It's doable but slim, and there's no guarantee that your variance will actually pan out because no 2 data sets are the same. It really is a luck of the draw game. Unless of course, you can find some real weak players to play out for an eternity.
In any given session, poker is a game of luck against the similar experienced players. Poker skills of winning players are about making good folds, good bluffs and maximizing profits.
Nobody's having this debate. It was actually settled in court that poker is a game of skill. It has elements of luck it in, which is why a bad player can still win in the short-term and why poker is more popular than chess.
Doug Polk did not "destroy" Negreanu. Negreanu was never a heads up specialist like Polk. If you throw those 2 into a ring game or tournament, Kid Poker will place better the majority of the time.
@@agoo7581 When they played actual heads up, in person, Negreanu decimated Polk. Polk didn't win that game, his computer analytics and engines won it and Polk even said that if given enough time Negreanu would have adapted and learned. They each won in the area they specialize in, Polk just had the advantage of having the majority of hands be in an online setting rather than in person. Context is key.
Even though I like playing Texas hold em I have to look at the facts: At a start of a hand I only have around 3,5% of information (2 out of 52 cards),... by the River this amount rises to around 13,5% (7 out of 52 cards). This is way too less information to believe that my skill (the ability of making good decisions) will matter much.
AI has been created that can beat most of the best players in the world. You cant create AI that can consistently win in a game that is Pure luck. Poker is about 70% and about 30% luck anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty clueless Its that simple.
@@wiktor_333 if you cant grasp the concept of what i said you are beyond reproach. There have been several studies that pitted seasons poker player vs brand new players and the seasoned player won the majority of the time. GO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
@@wiktor_333 if you think poker is mostly luck your aren't even worth arguing with. You are plain ole ignorant. And yea I am a winning player but it isnt in poker its in sports
No such thing as luck, I prefer to call it variance and without it there would be no game , the fish has to win sometimes for you to make money or else they stop playing .
You friggin listen and LISTEN GOOD! Someone has to be the unluckiest person in the world, well im him! I have witnesses, LIFELONG witnesses, you think i like it!? Huh? Well do ya? No! I hate it!!! Im cursed with bad luck! Murphy's law says " IF". IF anything can go wrong it will, my law has no " IF" my law= IT WILL GO WRONG! Ive bit my tounge long enough! You know what would make me the happiest poker player in the world? If i could just FOLD IN PEACE! My Aces? Dont be silly , CRACKED! Fold 35 off ? FULL HOUSE! Now dont get me wrong, for you normal people , skill takes over in the long run, i dont have a long run, Cursed luck, ALWAYS AND FOREVER IN EVERYTHING!
Al bondigas. How do you think the patriots won all those superbowls? I bet AGAINST them! Gods not gonna let me win money! I want the Giants to lose this week so im betting ON them, theyre DOOMED!
@@DC94359 nah, tournaments just has bigger variance but there is huge edge to be had probably even bigger in tournaments. Long term is just much longer if you are tournament player. But tournaments can definetely feel very lucky since it is so rough to put the volume in. If you play around thousand tourneys a year the luck runs out of the equation. But yeah no amateur is putting the volume in.
@@ossi8963 I agree with you, but I feel hypers and turbos are a lot more luck based because there's alot of all ins pre flop with the blinds going up quickly especially bounty builders. You rarely go all in pre flop in cash games more tec
@@DC94359 yeah, you are right cash has less variance than mtts, and yeah in hypers and turbos you are losing lot of edge and increasing variance. It is still beatable but you need to get lot bigger sample size if you play hypers than if you play regulars. And all the game elements chance a lot. I was once grinding a lot of husng hypers and it was pretty misserable experience with the variance, beatable but boring since all the plays start to get really robotic and you have to put insane volume to make any real progress.
The main emphasis in the debate is that overtime and against worse players skill will outweigh luck. It’s mathematically impossible to lose overtime. This is why casinos make money because they always have an edge.
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Skill gives you a better chance to get lucky.
If u're watching this, it's probably too late and u have already played
Yeup. Lol.
It’s not for me I never played
Watching after losing a couple of buy ins tonight...
Funny enough, its forbiden for us, but how well the psychological behavior of each player and how they react for thier hands and how winnable is the situation, makes the perfect examples on my pyschology research.
Needed to flip a coin the other day and couldn’t find one so I went online and googled coin flip sim. The first one on the list tracks the total flips done to date. It’s over 30 millions and heads ( or maybe tails I forget) is up 55% to 45% or 16.5 millions flips won to 13.5 million flips won. No skill involved here. One side is up 3 million flips over the other. Sometimes even over millions of hands luck trumps skill. It’s a fact of poker people don’t talk about much. Statistics demand that 50% of players are going to run better then the other 50%. Which side you are on in life greatly affects your ability to win in this game long term. The best in the world don’t run -ev over 1 million hands it’s just not a thing.
i Remember when all the pro's where interviewed outside the WSOP about this exact Question nearly all players including Daniel Negreanu all said poker is about 60 % skill and 40 % luck
I would say that the location of any given card in any given shuffle is 100% chance and that what you do with the ones you're dealt is 100% skill.
"Luck is the enemy"
"Profit = opponent's mistakes - your mistakes"
It’s very similar to card counting in blackjack. You’re taking advantage of variance over time. If you get your chips in with odds of winning the hand just slightly over 50%, you will come out positive over time. Law of large numbers indeed.
The only problem is literally no one plays within their bankroll for law of large numbers to play out I.e. how likely is one to lose 25 coin flips over a million hands? You can do the math but it's not that low...how many people really play with 100 buy ins to withstand downswings like that...definitely not the pros who often sit with 100k....
@@happywednesday6741100 buy ins? Maybe for tournaments, for cash you need substantially less, and the better your win rate is, the less you need for
Poker is luck based, with elements of skill involved.
Industry leaders spincase this card game like its some sort of genuis skill fest. But, no matter if it's a single hand or your lifetime career, you're facing 90%luck and 10% skill.
In the long run, luck takes out most nearly all skilled players.
Less than 1% of the best professional players make money throughout their lifetime. That means that out of a poker room with a dozen+ full ring tables, only one person makes money in the long term. If it were skill based, there'd be a winner at every table.
No worries, the losing professionals all have training courses for you, so they can teach you how to win like they do. 😂
Not to mention their own made-up stats, to make things look legit.
If Poker were a game of skill there'd be no debate. No one asks if chess is luck or if sports is luck. There was a time when it could be profitable back when people used to fold you could be really tight and apply enough aggression to convince people to let go of their equity. Now that people know to never fold you're just always gambling.
The skill is in understanding odds and body language to minimize the chance of losing your hand. The draws and cards are luck.
It is a combination of skill and luck. I learned more about how to play successful poker by study behavioral psychology. It isn't the hand that you have that wins pots, it is the hand that the other players think that you have.
While you're analyzing your opponents they are analyzing you too. So it's not just about cards but people too. So know how to pick your opponents and then you can think about your cards
Poker is about navigating a random set of events and applying knowledge from experience and learning to turn the events to the player's advantage therefore it is a game of skill.
True, and the sportsbook isn't that far off, but while it's a game of skill, it's also gambling. I don't understand where there are all these think pieces asking if it's one or the other.
Yep your just navigating the turmoil ocean waves of poker. Luck definitely plays a big factor. Every hand in poker is predetermined built into the deck and you just have to make the right and lucky decisions. The only thing you have control over is your chip management and when to strike with a bluff or shove all-in and when to call. Instincts are also crucial,knowing when to fold when you have a good hand and understanding your opponent. Winning hands you shouldn't and maximizing the hands you do win. Making the right decisions and getting lucky is the key.
Exactly ! John Chan and Stu Unger didnt end up at the final table multiple times whilst navagtine their way through A HUGE field of guys purely on chance !
When someone thinks that poker is ALL luck or even 90% luck I KNOW i am taking to an moron.
@KeepItSecret WRONG !
IF you understand you can win 80 by calling 20 you got 4 to 1 odds if you know the odds are 3 to 1. Then win or lose you had advantage.
I am pretty sure such a basic concept will elude you.
The people who say poker is all luck would probably call a 3bet from a nit OOP with A9o.
A lot of regular people (who don’t play for a living) think they’re better at poker than they actually are. And blame their poor performance on the short term “luck” of the game. Real serious winners can crush in the long term.
If you are lucky poker is a game of skill.
its skill until the utg all ins with 7-5 off and you call with your Ks, and u manage to lose for a 7 turn 7 river :D
If you want to see a good example of luck over skill... Just watch Jamie Gold's run at the 2006 Main Event
Just like any 2 sports teams or sports athletes, if all things are equal, the result will be luck based or whomever makes more mistakes.
Chess have nothing to do with poker. I play both. Chess is skill. If you play against a better chess player, he will crush you game after game. But in poker everything can happen. I would say chess is 99% skill. In poker it depends who you play, if both player’s are similar in skill i would say its 80-90% luck, 10-20% skill. I mean you can play against top chess player for a month straight, you will not even be close to beat him in one single game. Meanwhile i can play heads up against Ivey or Negreanu and win some games
so would you say that a skilled poker player will be profitibable in the long term or not
in the end it is all luck... you can minimize the varience but it is always luck.
Was the Daniel Negreanu/Doug Polk series Live or Online...I feel this makes a huge difference. I still hold that to me, for any standard game of poker, especially Texas Hold'em, for two - four hours which conforms to a typical "poker night", it's going to be 75% Luck, 20% Psychology and 5% Math...if you start getting into the Professional level, a skill pro can certainly use their experience and both math and psychology skills to get the edge in the long run. Does it pay to study? Yes! will it make you a have a winning session every time you sit down at a game..No..
75% math 25% luck
It's funny I had a understanding of poker but always got cleaned out by my friends that are below average. After learning how to day trade and disconnecting my brain from money as long as the R:R I'd proper poker has become quite easy, especially in terms of psyching out my opponents
Yes the optimal strategy involves bluffing and aggression. You walk into a tourney and see ppl flying with all ins. Sure there are skills but its just too thin
Cash game 70/30 skill/luck
tournaments 40-/60+ skill/luck (depends on the number of players)
Thought should be the other way around. There's more variance in cash game than tournament.
@@coolpoolshark bro what? There definetely isn’t, it is arguable that you can gain bigger edge in tournaments since it is much more complicated and player pools in all levels are still pretty bad. But cash definetely is much less variance effected. It is just fact.
@@ossi8963 You sounded like you haven't played your first million hands at live poker cash games or you don't know what variance means in poker.
@@coolpoolshark yeah I haven’t but I am online player who playes 30-50k hands a month and jacks off to graphs and solvers as someone would say. But I don’t know what that have to do with anything. I don’t have 2k tourneys played either so I don’t have sample size to rely to my own data. Live cash variance is nothing anyways. The tournament structure is the problem when thinking variance here. Busting out of the table makes you lose fuck ton of EV long term and not being able to play with the same people for longer periods is bad. You can ask your coach or google it. This shouldn’t be unknown thing at all.
@@coolpoolshark ”nothing” being huge understandment but for online grinders live players swings are tiny and you should expect much bigger winrate in live cash than in online.
Was doing terribly online and busting or min cashing hundreds of MTTs. I was ahead in all-ins approximately 85% of the time. Admittedly the flips were sometimes fairly close IE 54% against 46%.
I started to think I was a fish and was close to quitting. But inner competition made me go to a Live event ran by my online cardroom. I was always confident in my live poker as I am not bad at a few live skills.
Anyway I satted in live and played the multi day event and came in the top 10 for five figures out of a field of 400 plus. 45 minute levels.
I won back 3X all my Online losses since 2005. The tournament was mostly comprised of mid level to higher stakes ' winning online regs'
At last I beat them after taking it for so many years.
A chess engine beats it's opponents with skill it's a machine .
In poker RTA or a poker engine will beat another poker player over time with skill .machines don't use luck .poker is a game of skill
I look at it like this. It definitely takes skill and luck but mainly skill. You only have control of how you spend your chips and when to strike and bluff or make that hard call to win the hand. You have to navigate the turmoil ocean that is the poker table and make decisions based on each hand and opponent. Just being patient and making the right decisions will do You well but it can be very difficult. Mixing things up and not being predictable is also important. I love how deep poker is and the depth of the game. Then again you can make the right decisions and still lose. Instincts is what separates alot of players. Combine all of that with good instincts and understanding your opponents and just being lucky and someone can be a very good poker player.
Emotion must be factored into decisions/bad decisions as well. Titl is real.
Poker is a game of luck and Tom Dwan is proof
Hes actually a huge loser who owes people lots of money lol he deff loses more than wins but from the looks of clips like this youd think hes crushing it. plays way too loose
The best proof of luck or skill is what oros say when they lose. “Gosh, im so unlucky. Or gosh that bad player got lucky. A great analogy is blackjack. If you are counting cards its still gambling. Even though youncan be a slight favorite in positive counts.
You can do jolly fuck all about the cards you are dealt, you can try to bluff a man if you have shit cards but if he has the best possible hand then he wont give a fuck and will bankrupt you, wether your cards are good or bad is all luck.
Poker is a game of skill with luck added into the mix. Skilled players over the long run will be profitable whereas bad or 'lucky' players can show short term profits but in the long run will be a losing player.
If a game has any luck involved, I want no part in it. If I’m able to play perfectly and still lose due to luck; it’s a shitty game imo. I like chess
Bluffing is a skill...doesnt always work though..its luck..I can beat aces with 7-2 unless you know a way to control the flop
That depends to your opponent if he has the skills to notice the bluff...
Can you explain the basics, of the business?
it's not golf, 100% the better player will always win. Poker is still gambling. All-in pre-flop, even aces versus aces, you're still gambling. There's too many different games. Tournaments, cash,if you have an endless bankroll, playing cash. You're probably going to beat the better player that's scared money, playing too high of steaks. There's just too many variables."In the long run", it's still gambling. Those who say "the game has changed". If you're making calls because you have a "blocker". The deck does not care what GTO delusion you've convinced yourself. 1%/2% of the cards that's been dealt, junk folded flop,turn, river, that beats you hurts but it happens, there's not that many cards.
Golf has a sizeable element of luck. (Think about weather changing during tournaments etc). Of course poker has more luck but saying the better golfer will win every time is not actually true.
All I know is I lose at least 70% of my 50/50 hands
Poker requires some skill on average but if you're incredibly lucky you can get by without skill and if you're incredibly unlucky no amount of skill will help you.
It's luck and skill. Especially tournament poker you have to be very lucky to win tournaments. In big tournament play you see the same people because very few people can afford a big buy in.
Individual tournaments, yeah. But online grinders are playing fifty odd a day, searching out value and reach "the long run" pretty quick.
@@Tom_Bee_ too many cheat online and you still have to get lucky some where. Cash games are a lot more skillful and you still have to get lucky.
@@anthonyfoutch3152 no. You have to not get unlucky, which I suppose is a form of luck. If you can't beat online at reputable websites, that isn't bc of cheats, btw 😂
@@Tom_Bee_ i never played it but for 300 dollars and it was like they could see my cards. I was only playing one game at a time though. I lost all but $17 and they shut it down. The never took money off my card so I didn't lose anything. it's illegal where i live I've done pretty good with live poker before I retired I didn't get rich but I made a living.
@@anthonyfoutch3152 ah yeah. Small sample size. There are a lot of good players online and you will play waaaaay more hands. I preferred live poker for the longest time but being locked indoors with that disease going around a couple years back changed all that 😂
Don't the solver computers now beat humans 100% of the time in challenges, that would indicate its mostly a game of skill, anybody can beat a solver computer in random hands (luck), but not long term (skill).
A computer is not designed to make mistakes but it can it's called a glitch or a bug. After all it was invented by humans and humans make mistakes.
I'd rather be lucky any day over skill
It's lucky or unlucky..it's skill if ur working as a team which is happening in every casino u just don't know it...to answer ur question if everyone is skilled it's more luck needed to win. This isn't the 2000s when half the table is fish ..it's usually 90 percent filled with regs waiting to gang up on you.
Poker is mostly luck. There are literally more lottery winners in any and every given year, than there are poker players making a profit..
If you want to discuss numbers. The number of lottery losers is pretty huge compare to people losing everything due to poker...
To make a profit from poker you need to win more than once in a while, how many people wins the lottery once in a while? In lottery the odds are like once in a lifetime...
@@tareklegrand7747 actually I spent $20 for ten draws, and nailed 4 out of 6 and 3 out of 6 for $65 profit..
@@tareklegrand7747 **actually I nailed 3 out of 6 twice and and 4 out of 6 numbers with 10 draws for $75 profit! ...
With poker, I play about 20,000 hands per month easily. Reality is, you need a volume of about 300000 hands to get enough volume to actually beat out variance.. That's like 2-3 years playing poker straight, to "maybe" eek out a profit... Hendon Mob website(world's largest database tracker for poker players) indicates that less than 1% of all professional cash game players make money throughout their lifetime. Most successful casino owners will tell you 3%. And, poker coaches will straight up make up numbers and tell you 10-40%.. They're all full of it. Reality is that most multimillion dollar winners still end up broke. Out of the entire winning pool, the winners average out less than 4 BB's per hour... It's doable but slim, and there's no guarantee that your variance will actually pan out because no 2 data sets are the same. It really is a luck of the draw game. Unless of course, you can find some real weak players to play out for an eternity.
In any given session, poker is a game of luck against the similar experienced players. Poker skills of winning players are about making good folds, good bluffs and maximizing profits.
It's gambling.
If all players are of the exact same skill everyone is a fish and no one but the house will win in the long run
Nobody's having this debate. It was actually settled in court that poker is a game of skill. It has elements of luck it in, which is why a bad player can still win in the short-term and why poker is more popular than chess.
Doug Polk did not "destroy" Negreanu. Negreanu was never a heads up specialist like Polk. If you throw those 2 into a ring game or tournament, Kid Poker will place better the majority of the time.
That still doesn't mean Negreanu wasn't destroyed. Wtf non-sequitir nonsense is this?
@@agoo7581 When they played actual heads up, in person, Negreanu decimated Polk. Polk didn't win that game, his computer analytics and engines won it and Polk even said that if given enough time Negreanu would have adapted and learned. They each won in the area they specialize in, Polk just had the advantage of having the majority of hands be in an online setting rather than in person. Context is key.
Doug Polk has played more and studied more at full ring and tournament games as well
Luck is in the short term but in the long term skill will take effect
It's both. Let's just leave it at that.
I am surely glad to be the luckiest guy too :P
# modest
Some of both.
Skill and "Luck"...playing for a draw..
Even though I like playing Texas hold em I have to look at the facts: At a start of a hand I only have around 3,5% of information (2 out of 52 cards),... by the River this amount rises to around 13,5% (7 out of 52 cards). This is way too less information to believe that my skill (the ability of making good decisions) will matter much.
"mathematical" damn, he used that word so much. It is just luck.
When I’m 80 percent favorite, I lose 70 percent of the time. When I’m behind, I rarely suck out. Luck does not even out. That’s bullshit.
Skill not luck
AI has been created that can beat most of the best players in the world. You cant create AI that can consistently win in a game that is Pure luck. Poker is about 70% and about 30% luck
anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty clueless Its that simple.
show me ur graph pro
@@wiktor_333 if you cant grasp the concept of what i said you are beyond reproach.
There have been several studies that pitted seasons poker player vs brand new players and the seasoned player won the majority of the time. GO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
@@alivstyson1864 show me ur graph, if u think its skill u must be winning player, right? haha
@@wiktor_333 if you think poker is mostly luck your aren't even worth arguing with. You are plain ole ignorant. And yea I am a winning player but it isnt in poker its in sports
lol dont play poker before watching this 9 min vid. solve game theory in 9 min
No such thing as luck, I prefer to call it variance and without it there would be no game , the fish has to win sometimes for you to make money or else they stop playing .
You friggin listen and LISTEN GOOD! Someone has to be the unluckiest person in the world, well im him! I have witnesses, LIFELONG witnesses, you think i like it!? Huh? Well do ya? No! I hate it!!! Im cursed with bad luck! Murphy's law says " IF". IF anything can go wrong it will, my law has no " IF" my law= IT WILL GO WRONG! Ive bit my tounge long enough! You know what would make me the happiest poker player in the world? If i could just FOLD IN PEACE! My Aces? Dont be silly , CRACKED! Fold 35 off ? FULL HOUSE! Now dont get me wrong, for you normal people , skill takes over in the long run, i dont have a long run, Cursed luck, ALWAYS AND FOREVER IN EVERYTHING!
Btw, the KEY to poker is aggression, the SECRET to poker is folding.
have you tried a rabbit's foot?
Al bondigas. How do you think the patriots won all those superbowls? I bet AGAINST them! Gods not gonna let me win money! I want the Giants to lose this week so im betting ON them, theyre DOOMED!
Hand selection + bet sizing = 100% skill
It's both.....the end.
Definitely a skill game long term, without doubt!
It's depends, cash games are more skill involved I think MTTs are pretty much luck.
@@DC94359 nah, tournaments just has bigger variance but there is huge edge to be had probably even bigger in tournaments. Long term is just much longer if you are tournament player. But tournaments can definetely feel very lucky since it is so rough to put the volume in. If you play around thousand tourneys a year the luck runs out of the equation. But yeah no amateur is putting the volume in.
@@ossi8963 I agree with you, but I feel hypers and turbos are a lot more luck based because there's alot of all ins pre flop with the blinds going up quickly especially bounty builders. You rarely go all in pre flop in cash games more tec
@@DC94359 yeah, you are right cash has less variance than mtts, and yeah in hypers and turbos you are losing lot of edge and increasing variance. It is still beatable but you need to get lot bigger sample size if you play hypers than if you play regulars. And all the game elements chance a lot. I was once grinding a lot of husng hypers and it was pretty misserable experience with the variance, beatable but boring since all the plays start to get really robotic and you have to put insane volume to make any real progress.
At least do not lie...just watch these games very carefully. I don't care how good in bluffing you think you are, it is largely luck.
:D just lost 50$,
Maybe iam too Bad.. 377 (i had 33) He 3x overbets pot and i move in.
37777.. #logout
You were fucked 😂
ONLY DONKEY BELIEVE POKER IS GAME OF SKILLS.
IT'S 100 % GAME OF LUCK
The main emphasis in the debate is that overtime and against worse players skill will outweigh luck. It’s mathematically impossible to lose overtime. This is why casinos make money because they always have an edge.