@@ChuckHickl we make a triad! I was raised in the on a fairy in the Ozarks-Carrol County, NW Arkansas, and my father was born in Peru, Kansas, the birthplace of Obama’s grandmother. I am 77. Silicone Curtain is great. Content is outstanding and broadens my intellectual horizons.
All this talk about Ukraine having to consider giving up some of their land for the sake of peace is disgusting. The people of Vietnam and Afghanistan didn't toss in the towel. They fought hard and kicked out more powerful invaders. The people of Ukraine have that same courage and will overcome the illegal invasion and destruction of their country. The dithering, hand-wringing and waffle by the political elite of most NATO countries, does not inspire much confidence in that organisation's capacity to ever be able to defend Europe against any invading armies.
The very suggestion that Ukraine should even consider giving up one INCH to Russis.. is 1) Just wrong thinking. Ukraine belongs to Ukraine. And 2) Even allowing Russia 1 inch of Ukraine is an encouragement.. the LAST thing one should do to a country who WE KNOW has a plan to march across Europe. No encouragement.. NOT ONE Inch.. since Russia will not be appeased.
Well there are reasons why Ukraine might want peace and give land to Russia. If all electrical plats get destroyed, and waterpumps get targated, what is being done limited now. Or if west decides to stop giving free stuff to Ukraine. I think many prople undereszimate russia. And about nuks I dont think they will fly couse than even China might go for east Siberia as an excuse. Hard to say Ukraine is already having recruitment problems, and it is fighting country that can just force minorities in to army. This will go on for long time.
I just watched the entire Security Council meeting regarding Ukraine. My assessment is there are some countries sitting on the fence, but the majority are totally behind Ukraine. German Ambassador (representative) was scathing and mentioned the abduction and "deportation" of thousands of children. The UK Ambassador was very blunt. I finally heard the US representative say Ukraine should win. Finally said it. Everyone reiterated the UN charter regarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, except the Russian Ambassador who immediately left after the UK scolding. I definitely feel better knowing we're NOT alone.
Damn misinformed , the ICC warrant is base on NOTHING, Thousands of these kids were found relocated in GERMANY ! and the one in Russia were not abducted, they were removed from a WARZONE with the parents BLESSING, and they gone to summer camp, vocational school etc . AS for the 'security council' .. we know that it is populated with a majority of US' Vassals and other that fear US's warath and sanctions. the majority of the world, that is more than 85%, 7 BILLIONS peoples understand Russia and Putin and KNOW that this crisis is TOTALLY a USA construction!
This is a fabulous discussion. Content yes, insights. But also a case of the totality of the group is greater than the sum of the parts. Thank you all. And of course, thank you Silicone Curtain!
Ir becomes OBVIOUS that the first thing one must do to have success is to comprehend what makes the opposition tick. Our friend Konstantin (Inside Russia) has been invaluable in helping many Western minds understand Russia and just how the typical Russian mind works. I find his unique perspective ( East / West blend) to be incredibly useful. Imho.. it would be wise for some Western " Think Tank" to pluck this brilliant chap out of the backwaters and utilize his grasp of the Russian minset. It never hurts to have a 'Superior Man' in your camp.
@@faithrada I love Konstantin. He helped me understand Russians in the same way as you describe. They seem to want the same things we all want, but because the distance they feel they must go to get there seems so great to them, they tend to revert to vengeful envy. That kills their dreams and aspirations. Their leaders have been keeping them in a permanent state of frustration for many many generations. I pity them.
There are better sources... inside Russia... and outside... and on youtube... as to how Russians think... ... Keep in mind that... Konstatin spent time in the US and picked up on the let us prey... TV evangelist persona... and that he functioned high up... and perfectly well... within the Russian kleptocray... he is a chamelion... he knows how to butter his bread... and where his next bread is going to come from... and it ain 't gonna be from Russia.... ... his ego... err... Boss shirt... says it all...
@Sophiedorian0535 Perhaps you are wrong. All countries have the government they deserve. There are few Konstantins in Russia and also he and all this 2 millions Russians that left Russia are a good example of their mentality: avoid the problems and think in yourself instead of thinking in the good for your country. If this 2 millions, instead of run out of Russia, run towards Moscow and protests in front of the Kremlin then they could change all this situation. Konstantin and others need to find themselves between the sword and the wall to react (and react wrong), the war was running during months and they didn't react as didn't react before (or react positively to it) when Putin place bombs in Russian cities to provoke the second Chechen war, when invade Georgia, Crimea and Donbass.
@@carlespou4607 Of course I can be wrong. I am from Antwerp, Belgium. We were one of the first European cities to openly welcome migrants from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, in 1992. The Russians stood out. It’s the way their behaviour changed within a year: from extremely humble and slavish to extremely arrogant and abusive. I was a music teacher to some of the children. They turned out alright, but I must admit I often felt the urge to slap their mothers in the face. It was as if they knew no equals: only superiors and subordinates. The Belarusians were the first to come over here. Over a year earlier. Just before the actual fall of the USSR. I don’t think I’m wrong as to the cause of their mentality, but I also know that after to or three generations there is but one way to change it: defeat Russia militarily, demand unconditional surrender, and occupy the place for a good while. My German colleagues tend to agree with me on that. They could never have become free and compassionate people if their Nazi grandfather’s hadn’t been totally defeated and occupied, at the end of WW2. The Russians lack music in their souls. The Ukrainian soul on the other hand is rich with music.
After hearing some rather brutal scolding given to the Russians in the UN Security Council meeting, humiliation is the least of the worries for Russia, North Korea, Iran and anyone spouting Russian propaganda.
He's a betting kinda guy, he believes he'll be lucky, that he'll somehow win and, you know, winners write their version of history. Those saying otherwise will simply be... literally redacted.
This is one of your best episodes of ‘24 and was too short. Though the info and ideas were not new to me, the way it was framed, contextualized, challenged, etc. was incredibly crystallizing, which is more useful than just accruing yet more in a world where we are often blinded by having too much information.
Thorough conversation, thank you! I may add that Putin is obsessed by an assumed great Russian empire from the past, implying that Russia can only be Russia as a first rank global player. Combined with the absence of serious counter play within the Kremlin, this can partly explain Putin's colossal errors of judgment in relation to Ukraine and the West. Remember, during the run up to the invasion Putin was intensively warned by Macron, Scholz and others not to engage in military adventures.
Add to that simple regime survival...what he and his mob Kremlin elites witnessed on the Maidan in 2013/2014 was frightening for them...a Ukraine clearly wanting to move towards Europe and the West, whilst discarding Russian sphere of influence was the real existential threat to Putin and his cronies. They are terrified of a colour revolution...that much was clear in 2012 when Putin and his mob put down growing public protests to his "re-election". Ukrainians don't suffer the same political Apathy that Russians do...they have no interest of being another Belarus...in fact that is exactly what they are fighting for. Ukrainians know that if Russia were to take Kyiv, that is exactly what they would become, another Belarus...although I do believe that Moscow would then have an untenable partisan war on their hands which they do not have the resources to withstand. Russia could never have and will never be able to occupy and subjugate Ukraine...Putin's calculus was and is deeply flawed...and now that he failed to take Kyiv in the first few weeks of his invasion...he's put himself in a corner and he cant back down. Russia simply cannot win this war...Ukraine will never stop fighting.
I like this multiple guest format - besides the impressive depth of intelligence and complimentary breadth of experiencee you all bring to the table, - even you, Jonathan ;) - the next speaker has time to hone the next piece of the puzzle into the exact shape that completes thr picture. Well done.
32:36 you can insert the USA under trump for russia and putin. trump surrounds himself with radical "yes men" and it is self-destructive eventually. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands are killed, millions traumatized, the nation's wealth is plundered and we are devastated 🥺
Good video! If you're interested how politics, corruption and lies undermined russian invasion of Ukraine, i strongly suggest Perun's videos on this topic. ❤
Looking at what actually happened, Boris Johnson certainly thought he was there to get Zelensky out of Ukraine - hence the famous line, "I don't need a ride, I need ammo!" Boris Johnson is very dodgy, he has a history of playing footsie with KGB operatives and their kids, looking at you, "Lord" Lebedev in the House of Lords, that Boris Johnson was warned about, but made him a lotd anyway - Lebedev's father operates a lot of fancy Russian seaside resorts in Crimea 💯👁️👁️
Absolutely fascdinating, this is one of the best shows ever, IMO. Thank you for putting together these panelists, it was such an enlightening discussion.
So Happy to have this casting from Silicon Curtin, will be listening two times and will read the Comments as I happily hitch along with You All. Goes without saying , Thank -You and May God Bless Your Circle of Influence. Ukraine will Define Democracy for the entire Planet 🇨🇦☮️👐👣🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
Thank you Jonathan, for this conversation. Elena's Tolstoy quote was: "It's smoothly written on paper, but they forgot about the ravines". Referencing Aug. 4th 1855 battle of Fedyukhiny Heights in which Tolstoy was a participant. Slava Ukraini, Free AZOV, Return the Children, Crimea is Ukraine, RGTFO and VPDFO.
A lot of journalists could learn from this channel. You let people take their time on the answers. Make the interviews so much more interesting to follow when you aren’t interrupting all the time as most journalists
Happy birthday 🎉 u r a legend ❤️ your one in a million I hope you have a wonderful day with your family. I look forward to see you every day. I always learn so much from u .I hope u have many more birthday s.be save Slava Ukraine glory to the heroes 🇺🇦 🙏 ❤😅
As a non-military person, my take was that Putin had lost his mind when he planned the attack in Feb'22. I saw no way for him to win, given that Ukrainians were defending their homes, and Russian supplies, training, operations, and logistics were dismal. Your podcast has provided the reasons (institutionalized info silos, prizing conformity over honesty, rewarding corruption, low assessment of collected data) this took place. These are characteristics of authoritarian governments indicating that all regimes using this method is both doomed and incompatible with people living in peace or having a sense of well-being.
Terrific appraisal of systems of intelligence in different nations. Detailed and informative, rational and based on years of experise. Really appreciate this post!
Bad intelligence, meant to please the president, also is a problem in the US. For instance, take military intelligence of the situation in Afghanistan. Our troops were training Afghani troops to become good fighters, who would become capable of defending the government, after US troops and allied troops left the country. Some intelligence agents on the ground began to express doubts about that program. Such reports were discussed among superior officers. Other agents brought glowing reports of highly promising improvement. Those reports went right up the chain of command and into the hands of the president. Our presidents wanted to believe in handing over responsibility in Afghanistan. The military intelligence agency told the president what he wanted to hear. And that is how it happened, that our military leaders told Biden that the Afghan army could keep the Taliban away for at least six months after Biden ordered final withdrawal. And the Taliban were at the gates of Kabul within two weeks. Biden looked like a fool, because military leaders had told him lies.
No. He was a fool who overrode the Pentagon and more. Fortunately, Harris was the last voice to leave the room. Trump's exit deal was violated to such a degree -- it was VOID. It had 7 conditions -- the Taliban violated 6 of them. Yet, ever still, Harris & Coy blame Trump for their colossal boner. Within weeks, Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine -- all the way. The actual event was delayed to please Xi. This was an epic error -- for Russia -- because the Mud Season started off within weeks. Say good bye to any mechanized war. Oops! Most of Ukraine does NOT have paved roads. Yes, Ukrainians are that poor. Plus, building roads on top of local soils is very costly and slow. It turns either to mud or ice every year.
One of the main Problems for giving Putin a realistic Assessment is that this would have had to mention that his Decisions in 2014 where rather shortsighted and lead to negative Outcomes for Russia, like uniting Ukraine against Russia and destroying any Trust that any reasonable Person could have in Putins Guarantees (that guarantee guaranteed nothing).
43:56 They still don’t “have it together”in the Donbas or anywhere else for that matter. I think that was a bit of slip in his quest to round out the point, unless his sole criterion for “having it together” being moving forward regardless of the cost or the cost vs what the cost should be.
Just look at what Boris Bondarev, the most senior diplomat to defect since 2022, said when he talked about their reports to their bosses / what their bosses told the Kremlin: he said it was just 100% spinning a fantasy and he said the craziest part was that it wasn’t Putin’s circle who believed all this nonsense, but even his own colleagues who knew it was BS. They had this bizarre mental disassociation in which they had bought into the nonsense they were feeding the chain even though they were constantly exposed to information that went contrary to the kool-aid.
1:11:00: Surely you're not talking about the Humvees that were found to not have been maintained by the contractor and the contractor received no visible punishment for breach on contract. You know, the ones that were hurriedly patched-up in the Middle-east for shipment to Germany -- where they had to be restored before delivery. It seems Russia doesn't have the absolute monopoly on stealing from governments.
I was talking to a colonel the day over beers confirm that one of core reasons for delayed weapon shipments was the fact that we had run down parts and ammo meaning what was given to the Ukrainians was broken. He also said that western militaries were laughing at the piss poor effort of the russian army. Ultimately though Ukraine won't be given front line western weapons because our larders are dry, the real enemy is China, and Russia has threatened, named, Western European cities with tactical nuclear weapons. He seemed to believe that it was a realistic threat
In my head, I go back to Solzhenitsyn's 'First Circle' again and again. It's such an intricate and artful book but so much of it reflecting a country like Russia saddled with a super-repressive system. Everything connects.
Putin was never a SPY. He was a LIAR. The KGB considers professional liars to be THE highest rank of skill. This he carries on even now. His ability to spin reality is quite astounding, breathtaking, in fact. Pitin had an IQ test score of 140+ ie a genius. His latest stunt is learning Chinese. This on top of running the whole show !
DAVID, DON'T BE A FOOL! PUTINS IQ IS 140+ AND YOU SAY PUTIN IS A GENIUS? I DISAGREE WITH YOUR IQ CHARACTERIZATION. PUTIN IS A WORLD CLASS LIAR AND HIS IQ IS BELOW 124, SAME IQ WITH BARACK OBAMA, A FORMER POTUS. TRUMP IQ ALONG WITH BILL CLINTON PUT THEM IN THE IQ GENIUSES CATAGORY. YOU GOT IT!😅😂
Some thought provoking comments here, like the Russian mil didn't have secure comms in the 08 Georgian war either and it made me think about the Russian air force general who wrote a paper post Georgian war saying the Russian military has serious problems which need to be addressed or they going lose their next war. Anyone pro Russian instantly discredited the paper because they "won" so easily. They were digging future Russian military members own graves everytime they gloated about that war by not giving them any critical thought.
David you are overestimating putin's past as an intelligence officer. (clerk actually) Just because he worked for the intelligence it does not mean that he is intelligent. Rather narcissist.
Putin was clever rather than smart. He spent most of his time in East Germany-He is fluent in German. This may explain why he does seem to have a knack for weakening German resolve.
Pockets of effectiveness, what a wonderful concept/expression! Special Gulag camps for research/development. “Sharashka”? From memory, I think that late 1960s English translation of First Circle used “sharashka” or close. Hard to remember spelling in a novel I read over 50 years ago. Amazing I still remember it almost scene by scene. Genuinely great novel, without doubt his best, definitely Nobel quality, followed by Cancer Ward. Tho “One day in the Life ….” Seems more finely crafted, more controlled, and enormously effective. Read it when it came out; I was in high school. A shame that S. Could be such an arrogant, stereotyping asshole when talking about politics and social life, especially in the West. All of the subtle insights into complexities of human motivations, fears, arrogance, ambitions, courage, cowardice, etc, replaced by absolutist certainties about societies he knew nothing about. Just because the Soviets would real speak words/concepts like “freedom”, and equality before the law or whatever he despised about The “corrupt” West in the moment, doesn’t mean the concepts and words had no meaning. My direct forebears back to 1770s fought, and in some cases died, literally and self consciously fighting in 6 wars to create and maintain our liberties. This isn’t just fluff. When Lincoln said, in the Gettysburg address, that the (unified) United States was “…the last, best hope of mankind…”) his point was not frothy propaganda defending war conduct, they were the literal truth. The US was the only true democracy in the world (UK expansion universal suffrage followed over next several decades). All other nations were monarchies, dictatorships, or autocracies of some sort. The few partial exceptions, in Latin America, leaned on the US for some protection. The Civil War removed this protection leading to a French army nearing the northern border of the United States, attempting to destroy a real attempt in Mexico to implement popular sovereignty. But enuf. S. Novels are an exploration of human behavior and sensibility as well as a historical testament. Likewise, the Gulag Archipelago. That is more than enough for ant person to earn my admiration as a human being and artist. Ok, so he was a terribly obtuse social observer/critic.
Knowledge of putler’s actual childhood, not just the apocryphal or anecdotal stories, is crucial to understanding his character & underlying psyche. Those formative years & the stories of manipulation, cruelty & thuggery. If Vera Putina’s claims are true then being raised by adoptive parents in St Petersburg, when abandoned by his Georgian mother in December 1960 when he was 8 years old, would have had a profound effect on him.
putin’s very personal & strong loathing of humiliation & betrayal, which he projects onto the russian state, the surrounding himself with “loyal” henchmen & the pathological coldness with which he dispatches his enemies or those disloyal, point to Vera’s story being plausible. The gaps in his early childhood add veracity.
Excellent discussion! Personally, I consider those that claim Rusia to be a capitalist country just as intellectually lazy as calling the PRC communist. As your guests highlight, it's very much feudal in nature. I've always considered that the generational trauma that the Russian people have and are still suffering from stems from the oprichnina and the overall study created in that time.
Elena Grossman''s comments on "the rumors of his excellence as (an) intelligence officer" are withering. Remember when Donald Rumsfeld was running the DoD show and someone commented that he was a very skilled infighter? But no comment on his skill at running an effective organization, much less the immense American defense establishment. The talents that won your position have nothing to do with actually carrying out your assignment.
This is so relevant to the way Trump operates, and the Trump politicians WILL operate if he gets in again. The relevance of this to the American government is simply staggering!
Maybe Ukraine needs to put a price, value, on the land occupied by Russia, and request payment for it should Putin wants to keep it. Then money will be taken from Russia until it is paid.
Globally militaries are most often led by optimists, but operated by pessimists. Multiply by an Autocracy that requires everyone to be an optimist and that’s where a visible gap between what is said and can be done opens up.
Highlighting of Russian intelligence shortcomings lead the public toward a complacent attitude toward Russian capabilities. I would be cautious about the framing because this could be weaponsized (excuse this overused term).
I studiex internationL relations,the basic analysis concentrates c On a countrys values,norms,attiturdes in thier world view,Putin did notxo that on UkrIne😅
Complete loyalty is possible only if you can blackmail other people with theirown past unethical and criminal acts. If you want to earn complete loyalty from an honest person with no criminal acts, then you can simply try to spread lies about her/him. It is impossible to earn complete loyalty from other people without playing manipulative and unfair games. During war, more people are inclined to comitting crimes. Spreading lies in a chaotic environment is much easier. So, you do not need to have advisors, people that you can count on, intelligence service that will protect you... All you need is people that are completely loyal to you and are ready to do anything for you. War is a perfect setting for producing loyal people. It could be that the russian dwarf with himalayan ego is alone. He trusts no one, but thanks to the ukranian war, he produces loyal people on daily basis.
@@jakbak-y6f The weakest link could be Wagner soldiers or Chechens. Some recent events suggest that trafficking of soldiers is spreading like a a flood and it has become another criminal field for making easy money. Deeply traumatised chechens are the most loyal people to the russian dwarf. Wagner soldiers are highly internationalised, while chechens are still quite isolated. Ordinary russian ortodox people do not like chechens because of their islamic religion and mindset.
Certainly, Putin worked as a counterintelligence officer in the former DDR at the time when nobody already believed that the USSR was a prosperous socialist state, a model for the future. So what kind of skills Putin would acquire in order to recruit anyone to work for the USSR? These skills are blackmail, bribery, lies, lots of lies. Putin acquired these skills and used them subsequently, when he became a tsar of Russians.
When you have experts on that truly know their stuff, it's an amazing show. Thanks and keep bringing in the experts when possible.
cheers from Arkansas, USA. appreciate all of the content Silicon Curtain produces to keep us in the West, truly informed.
👍👍👍
Agree from Kansas
@@ChuckHickl we make a triad! I was raised in the on a fairy in the Ozarks-Carrol County, NW Arkansas, and my father was born in Peru, Kansas, the birthplace of Obama’s grandmother. I am 77. Silicone Curtain is great. Content is outstanding and broadens my intellectual horizons.
“Dairy farm”. How embarrassing. But what can you expect from an old hillbilly.
Dairy, dairy farm in Ozarks. Not “fairy”.
All this talk about Ukraine having to consider giving up some of their land for the sake of peace is disgusting. The people of Vietnam and Afghanistan didn't toss in the towel. They fought hard and kicked out more powerful invaders. The people of Ukraine have that same courage and will overcome the illegal invasion and destruction of their country. The dithering, hand-wringing and waffle by the political elite of most NATO countries, does not inspire much confidence in that organisation's capacity to ever be able to defend Europe against any invading armies.
I agree
Amen, the administration in the US turns my stomach,
Wonderfull reaction. Thank you.
The very suggestion that Ukraine should even consider giving up one INCH to Russis.. is 1) Just wrong thinking. Ukraine belongs to Ukraine. And 2) Even allowing Russia 1 inch of Ukraine is an encouragement.. the LAST thing one should do to a country who WE KNOW has a plan to march across Europe.
No encouragement.. NOT ONE Inch.. since Russia will not be appeased.
Well there are reasons why Ukraine might want peace and give land to Russia. If all electrical plats get destroyed, and waterpumps get targated, what is being done limited now. Or if west decides to stop giving free stuff to Ukraine. I think many prople undereszimate russia. And about nuks I dont think they will fly couse than even China might go for east Siberia as an excuse. Hard to say Ukraine is already having recruitment problems, and it is fighting country that can just force minorities in to army. This will go on for long time.
Oh this was just wonderful! I could have listened to them for two more hours.
I just watched it for a second time! Done!
Great to catch notification of this!
I just watched the entire Security Council meeting regarding Ukraine. My assessment is there are some countries sitting on the fence, but the majority are totally behind Ukraine.
German Ambassador (representative) was scathing and mentioned the abduction and "deportation" of thousands of children.
The UK Ambassador was very blunt.
I finally heard the US representative say Ukraine should win. Finally said it.
Everyone reiterated the UN charter regarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, except the Russian Ambassador who immediately left after the UK scolding.
I definitely feel better knowing we're NOT alone.
Damn misinformed , the ICC warrant is base on NOTHING, Thousands of these kids were found relocated in GERMANY !
and the one in Russia were not abducted, they were removed from a WARZONE with the parents BLESSING, and they gone to summer camp, vocational school etc .
AS for the 'security council' .. we know that it is populated with a majority of US' Vassals and other that fear US's warath and sanctions. the majority of the world, that is more than 85%, 7 BILLIONS peoples understand Russia and Putin and KNOW that this crisis is TOTALLY a USA construction!
This is a fabulous discussion. Content yes, insights. But also a case of the totality of the group is greater than the sum of the parts. Thank you all. And of course, thank you Silicone Curtain!
Oklahoma, USA 🇺🇸❤️🤍💙💛🇺🇦
Slava Ukraine
Thank you so much for the AMAZING videos that you churn out daily!!!
Glad you like them!
Brilliant panel and discussion Jonathon!! P will surely go down as the guy who built then destroyed Russia as a great power!
Ir becomes OBVIOUS that the first thing one must do to have success is to comprehend what makes the opposition tick.
Our friend Konstantin (Inside Russia) has been invaluable in helping many Western minds understand Russia and just how the typical Russian mind works.
I find his unique perspective ( East / West blend) to be incredibly useful.
Imho.. it would be wise for some Western " Think Tank" to pluck this brilliant chap out of the backwaters and utilize his grasp of the Russian minset. It never hurts to have a 'Superior Man' in your camp.
@@faithrada I love Konstantin. He helped me understand Russians in the same way as you describe.
They seem to want the same things we all want, but because the distance they feel they must go to get there seems so great to them, they tend to revert to vengeful envy. That kills their dreams and aspirations.
Their leaders have been keeping them in a permanent state of frustration for many many generations.
I pity them.
There are better sources... inside Russia... and outside... and on youtube... as to how Russians think...
... Keep in mind that... Konstatin spent time in the US and picked up on the let us prey... TV evangelist persona... and that he functioned high up... and perfectly well... within the Russian kleptocray... he is a chamelion... he knows how to butter his bread... and where his next bread is going to come from... and it ain 't gonna be from Russia....
... his ego... err... Boss shirt... says it all...
@Sophiedorian0535 Perhaps you are wrong. All countries have the government they deserve. There are few Konstantins in Russia and also he and all this 2 millions Russians that left Russia are a good example of their mentality: avoid the problems and think in yourself instead of thinking in the good for your country.
If this 2 millions, instead of run out of Russia, run towards Moscow and protests in front of the Kremlin then they could change all this situation.
Konstantin and others need to find themselves between the sword and the wall to react (and react wrong), the war was running during months and they didn't react as didn't react before (or react positively to it) when Putin place bombs in Russian cities to provoke the second Chechen war, when invade Georgia, Crimea and Donbass.
@@carlespou4607 Of course I can be wrong. I am from Antwerp, Belgium. We were one of the first European cities to openly welcome migrants from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, in 1992. The Russians stood out. It’s the way their behaviour changed within a year: from extremely humble and slavish to extremely arrogant and abusive. I was a music teacher to some of the children. They turned out alright, but I must admit I often felt the urge to slap their mothers in the face. It was as if they knew no equals: only superiors and subordinates.
The Belarusians were the first to come over here. Over a year earlier. Just before the actual fall of the USSR.
I don’t think I’m wrong as to the cause of their mentality, but I also know that after to or three generations there is but one way to change it: defeat Russia militarily, demand unconditional surrender, and occupy the place for a good while. My German colleagues tend to agree with me on that. They could never have become free and compassionate people if their Nazi grandfather’s hadn’t been totally defeated and occupied, at the end of WW2.
The Russians lack music in their souls. The Ukrainian soul on the other hand is rich with music.
The irony of Putin not wanting Russia to be humiliated again...will of course lead to its humiliation again is monumental.
After hearing some rather brutal scolding given to the Russians in the UN Security Council meeting, humiliation is the least of the worries for Russia, North Korea, Iran and anyone spouting Russian propaganda.
You just cant allways get what you want,
and Sometimes you even get what you deserve.
He's a betting kinda guy, he believes he'll be lucky, that he'll somehow win and, you know, winners write their version of history. Those saying otherwise will simply be... literally redacted.
You're playing Russian roulette with a nuclear power ! damn
@@moestietabarnak If Russian nukes are like their army...Putin is committing suicide.
Top of my notifications 😊 wonderful, thanks Silicon Curtain, Jonathan
❤️❤️❤️
Thanks, excellent and insightful interview
This is one of your best episodes of ‘24 and was too short. Though the info and ideas were not new to me, the way it was framed, contextualized, challenged, etc. was incredibly crystallizing, which is more useful than just accruing yet more in a world where we are often blinded by having too much information.
Thorough conversation, thank you! I may add that Putin is obsessed by an assumed great Russian empire from the past, implying that Russia can only be Russia as a first rank global player.
Combined with the absence of serious counter play within the Kremlin, this can partly explain Putin's colossal errors of judgment in relation to Ukraine and the West. Remember, during the run up to the invasion Putin was intensively warned by Macron, Scholz and others not to engage in military adventures.
Add to that simple regime survival...what he and his mob Kremlin elites witnessed on the Maidan in 2013/2014 was frightening for them...a Ukraine clearly wanting to move towards Europe and the West, whilst discarding Russian sphere of influence was the real existential threat to Putin and his cronies. They are terrified of a colour revolution...that much was clear in 2012 when Putin and his mob put down growing public protests to his "re-election". Ukrainians don't suffer the same political Apathy that Russians do...they have no interest of being another Belarus...in fact that is exactly what they are fighting for. Ukrainians know that if Russia were to take Kyiv, that is exactly what they would become, another Belarus...although I do believe that Moscow would then have an untenable partisan war on their hands which they do not have the resources to withstand. Russia could never have and will never be able to occupy and subjugate Ukraine...Putin's calculus was and is deeply flawed...and now that he failed to take Kyiv in the first few weeks of his invasion...he's put himself in a corner and he cant back down. Russia simply cannot win this war...Ukraine will never stop fighting.
Fantastic panel. Thank you.🏴🇨🇦✌️🇺🇦
Thanks yuo and USA. I'm Ukrainan Army Operator and your thrue, need to be heared! 🇺🇦🇺🇲
👍👍👍
New guest, I love the perspective thank you so much. You never stop amazing me.
I like this multiple guest format - besides the impressive depth of intelligence and complimentary breadth of experiencee you all bring to the table, - even you, Jonathan ;) - the next speaker has time to hone the next piece of the puzzle into the exact shape that completes thr picture. Well done.
Thank you everybody for this good discussion.
💛💙💜💙💛 Couldn't wait, listening now, damn the interruptions! 😄
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32:36 you can insert the USA under trump for russia and putin. trump surrounds himself with radical "yes men" and it is self-destructive eventually. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands are killed, millions traumatized, the nation's wealth is plundered and we are devastated 🥺
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Got ur notification sometimes UA-cam does not send it and I see u on my scrollin 5-8 vlogs down
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Some great perspectives in this interview. Lots to chew on.
Again and again, gem after gem on your channel. Chapeau!
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Good video!
If you're interested how politics, corruption and lies undermined russian invasion of Ukraine, i strongly suggest Perun's videos on this topic. ❤
Absolutely fascinating
Какие умные люди - молодцы 👏🏽 👏🏽👏🏽
Slava Ukraini! 💛💙
Remember to give this channel likes!
Looking at what actually happened, Boris Johnson certainly thought he was there to get Zelensky out of Ukraine - hence the famous line, "I don't need a ride, I need ammo!" Boris Johnson is very dodgy, he has a history of playing footsie with KGB operatives and their kids, looking at you, "Lord" Lebedev in the House of Lords, that Boris Johnson was warned about, but made him a lotd anyway - Lebedev's father operates a lot of fancy Russian seaside resorts in Crimea 💯👁️👁️
Indeed. Something exceedingly dodgy there.
Z NEVER said "I don't need a ride, I need ammo!" ... you're just hook and sink with the propaganda
Absolutely fascdinating, this is one of the best shows ever, IMO. Thank you for putting together these panelists, it was such an enlightening discussion.
So Happy to have this casting from Silicon Curtin, will be listening two times and will read the Comments as I happily hitch along with You All.
Goes without saying , Thank -You and May God Bless Your Circle of Influence.
Ukraine will Define Democracy for the entire Planet 🇨🇦☮️👐👣🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
When your enemy's makeing repeated mistakes. Its detrimental to give him good advice on how to fix it.
Great discussion. Slava Ukraini!
Elena really has Putin sussed out, kudos.
Thank you Jonathan, for this conversation.
Elena's Tolstoy quote was: "It's smoothly written on paper, but they forgot about the ravines". Referencing Aug. 4th 1855 battle of Fedyukhiny Heights in which Tolstoy was a participant.
Slava Ukraini, Free AZOV, Return the Children, Crimea is Ukraine, RGTFO and VPDFO.
Thank you, Jonathan, David Gioe, Elena Grossfeld, and Huw Dylan, for your very interesting conversation.
🇺🇦 Перемоги та миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
Interesting discussion. Thanks to all involved, a number of interesting insights
A lot of journalists could learn from this channel. You let people take their time on the answers. Make the interviews so much more interesting to follow when you aren’t interrupting all the time as most journalists
Informative conversation. Thank you.
Yet another absolutely fascinating interview Johnathan. I could have listened to several hours more of this panel.
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Happy birthday 🎉 u r a legend ❤️ your one in a million I hope you have a wonderful day with your family. I look forward to see you every day. I always learn so much from u .I hope u have many more birthday s.be save Slava Ukraine glory to the heroes 🇺🇦 🙏 ❤😅
this was a great show tonight , 4 super brains together...from ecosse
Thanks for a superb video Jonathan. 👏
As a non-military person, my take was that Putin had lost his mind when he planned the attack in Feb'22. I saw no way for him to win, given that Ukrainians were defending their homes, and Russian supplies, training, operations, and logistics were dismal. Your podcast has provided the reasons (institutionalized info silos, prizing conformity over honesty, rewarding corruption, low assessment of collected data) this took place. These are characteristics of authoritarian governments indicating that all regimes using this method is both doomed and incompatible with people living in peace or having a sense of well-being.
Great channel.
My friend if u invite "Elena to talk" as u did ~5 times then please let "Elena" talk.
I appreciate the work you do very much. Greetings from Germany.
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Just catching up on my Silicone Curtain videos. Very interesting interview! Jonathan you do choose the most fascinatingly interesting guests. Thanks!
Terrific appraisal of systems of intelligence in different nations. Detailed and informative, rational and based on years of experise. Really appreciate this post!
Comment for the algo. Amazing work🎉
I could listen to y'all all day. Please do more like this.
Excellent conversation thanks
Very good podcast. Very informative as usual. Well done. Thank you
Bad intelligence, meant to please the president, also is a problem in the US. For instance, take military intelligence of the situation in Afghanistan. Our troops were training Afghani troops to become good fighters, who would become capable of defending the government, after US troops and allied troops left the country. Some intelligence agents on the ground began to express doubts about that program. Such reports were discussed among superior officers. Other agents brought glowing reports of highly promising improvement. Those reports went right up the chain of command and into the hands of the president. Our presidents wanted to believe in handing over responsibility in Afghanistan. The military intelligence agency told the president what he wanted to hear. And that is how it happened, that our military leaders told Biden that the Afghan army could keep the Taliban away for at least six months after Biden ordered final withdrawal. And the Taliban were at the gates of Kabul within two weeks. Biden looked like a fool, because military leaders had told him lies.
No. He was a fool who overrode the Pentagon and more. Fortunately, Harris was the last voice to leave the room.
Trump's exit deal was violated to such a degree -- it was VOID. It had 7 conditions -- the Taliban violated 6 of them.
Yet, ever still, Harris & Coy blame Trump for their colossal boner. Within weeks, Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine -- all the way.
The actual event was delayed to please Xi. This was an epic error -- for Russia -- because the Mud Season started off within weeks.
Say good bye to any mechanized war. Oops! Most of Ukraine does NOT have paved roads. Yes, Ukrainians are that poor. Plus, building roads on top of local soils is very costly and slow. It turns either to mud or ice every year.
The process was already well underway by the time Biden took office. But largely, I agree with your assessment.
would really love to read about this, where did u read about it?
Hodges, clear comments as per usual
Audience bored? I’m on the edge of my seat! I’m looking forward to reading the articles.
Great guests
One of the main Problems for giving Putin a realistic Assessment is that this would have had to mention that his Decisions in 2014 where rather shortsighted and lead to negative Outcomes for Russia, like uniting Ukraine against Russia and destroying any Trust that any reasonable Person could have in Putins Guarantees (that guarantee guaranteed nothing).
Enlightening!
What a thoroughly fascinating discussion. Thank you
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Nobody mentions the Trump effect on Rusia - years of portraying America’s political weakness and disunion.
Intelligence and Putin is an oxymoron
43:56 They still don’t “have it together”in the Donbas or anywhere else for that matter. I think that was a bit of slip in his quest to round out the point, unless his sole criterion for “having it together” being moving forward regardless of the cost or the cost vs what the cost should be.
Thanks!
Thanks!
Just look at what Boris Bondarev, the most senior diplomat to defect since 2022, said when he talked about their reports to their bosses / what their bosses told the Kremlin: he said it was just 100% spinning a fantasy and he said the craziest part was that it wasn’t Putin’s circle who believed all this nonsense, but even his own colleagues who knew it was BS. They had this bizarre mental disassociation in which they had bought into the nonsense they were feeding the chain even though they were constantly exposed to information that went contrary to the kool-aid.
Cheney's distortion of intelligence on Iraq's WMD and Iraq's role in 911 was used to justify America's invasion of Iraq. Same game, different players.
Elena is the one of the three who understands Russia - perfectly, the other two think in Western models
Nice discussion thank you 👍🇺🇸
Interesting...they lack insight...that is one key trait of sociopathy and autocracy.
Lol Washington Post.. I remember about 30 years ago when I was a kid when that used to be a reputable newspaper.... Washington compost
1:11:00: Surely you're not talking about the Humvees that were found to not have been maintained by the contractor and the contractor received no visible punishment for breach on contract. You know, the ones that were hurriedly patched-up in the Middle-east for shipment to Germany -- where they had to be restored before delivery. It seems Russia doesn't have the absolute monopoly on stealing from governments.
I was talking to a colonel the day over beers confirm that one of core reasons for delayed weapon shipments was the fact that we had run down parts and ammo meaning what was given to the Ukrainians was broken.
He also said that western militaries were laughing at the piss poor effort of the russian army. Ultimately though Ukraine won't be given front line western weapons because our larders are dry, the real enemy is China, and Russia has threatened, named, Western European cities with tactical nuclear weapons.
He seemed to believe that it was a realistic threat
In my head, I go back to Solzhenitsyn's 'First Circle' again and again. It's such an intricate and artful book but so much of it reflecting a country like Russia saddled with a super-repressive system. Everything connects.
Surprisingly good discussion
Putin was never a SPY. He was a LIAR. The KGB considers professional liars to be THE highest rank of skill.
This he carries on even now. His ability to spin reality is quite astounding, breathtaking, in fact.
Pitin had an IQ test score of 140+ ie a genius. His latest stunt is learning Chinese. This on top of running the whole show !
Вы ничего не знаете про КГБ
DAVID, DON'T BE A FOOL! PUTINS IQ IS 140+ AND YOU SAY PUTIN IS A GENIUS?
I DISAGREE WITH YOUR IQ CHARACTERIZATION. PUTIN IS A WORLD CLASS LIAR AND HIS IQ IS BELOW 124, SAME IQ WITH BARACK OBAMA, A FORMER POTUS.
TRUMP IQ ALONG WITH BILL CLINTON PUT THEM IN THE IQ GENIUSES CATAGORY.
YOU GOT IT!😅😂
Some thought provoking comments here, like the Russian mil didn't have secure comms in the 08 Georgian war either and it made me think about the Russian air force general who wrote a paper post Georgian war saying the Russian military has serious problems which need to be addressed or they going lose their next war.
Anyone pro Russian instantly discredited the paper because they "won" so easily. They were digging future Russian military members own graves everytime they gloated about that war by not giving them any critical thought.
David you are overestimating putin's past as an intelligence officer. (clerk actually) Just because he worked for the intelligence it does not mean that he is intelligent. Rather narcissist.
Putin was clever rather than smart. He spent most of his time in East Germany-He is fluent in German. This may explain why he does seem to have a knack for weakening German resolve.
Pockets of effectiveness, what a wonderful concept/expression! Special Gulag camps for research/development.
“Sharashka”? From memory, I think that late 1960s English translation of First Circle used “sharashka” or close. Hard to remember spelling in a novel I read over 50 years ago. Amazing I still remember it almost scene by scene. Genuinely great novel, without doubt his best, definitely Nobel quality, followed by Cancer Ward. Tho “One day in the Life ….” Seems more finely crafted, more controlled, and enormously effective. Read it when it came out; I was in high school.
A shame that S. Could be such an arrogant, stereotyping asshole when talking about politics and social life, especially in the West. All of the subtle insights into complexities of human motivations, fears, arrogance, ambitions, courage, cowardice, etc, replaced by absolutist certainties about societies he knew nothing about.
Just because the Soviets would real speak words/concepts like “freedom”, and equality before the law or whatever he despised about The “corrupt” West in the moment, doesn’t mean the concepts and words had no meaning. My direct forebears back to 1770s fought, and in some cases died, literally and self consciously fighting in 6 wars to create and maintain our liberties. This isn’t just fluff. When Lincoln said, in the Gettysburg address, that the (unified) United States was “…the last, best hope of mankind…”) his point was not frothy propaganda defending war conduct, they were the literal truth. The US was the only true democracy in the world (UK expansion universal suffrage followed over next several decades). All other nations were monarchies, dictatorships, or autocracies of some sort. The few partial exceptions, in Latin America, leaned on the US for some protection. The Civil War removed this protection leading to a French army nearing the northern border of the United States, attempting to destroy a real attempt in Mexico to implement popular sovereignty.
But enuf. S. Novels are an exploration of human behavior and sensibility as well as a historical testament. Likewise, the Gulag Archipelago. That is more than enough for ant person to earn my admiration as a human being and artist. Ok, so he was a terribly obtuse social observer/critic.
Knowledge of putler’s actual childhood, not just the apocryphal or anecdotal stories, is crucial to understanding his character & underlying psyche. Those formative years & the stories of manipulation, cruelty & thuggery.
If Vera Putina’s claims are true then being raised by adoptive parents in St Petersburg, when abandoned by his Georgian mother in December 1960 when he was 8 years old, would have had a profound effect on him.
putin’s very personal & strong loathing of humiliation & betrayal, which he projects onto the russian state, the surrounding himself with “loyal” henchmen & the pathological coldness with which he dispatches his enemies or those disloyal, point to Vera’s story being plausible.
The gaps in his early childhood add veracity.
PBS did a deep dive into Putin’s early years a year or two back. It was pretty informative.
Excellent discussion! Personally, I consider those that claim Rusia to be a capitalist country just as intellectually lazy as calling the PRC communist. As your guests highlight, it's very much feudal in nature. I've always considered that the generational trauma that the Russian people have and are still suffering from stems from the oprichnina and the overall study created in that time.
Elena Grossman''s comments on "the rumors of his excellence as (an) intelligence officer" are withering.
Remember when Donald Rumsfeld was running the DoD show and someone commented that he was a very skilled infighter? But no comment on his skill at running an effective organization, much less the immense American defense establishment.
The talents that won your position have nothing to do with actually carrying out your assignment.
Good 👍
Jonathan, you should do an interview with Caolan Robinson, he is in Kherson now.
Putin never played Ice Hockey with his shirt off.
I saw an example of Russian economics in the movie “Good Fellas!”
Those movies never end well, and nor will Putin
This is the way hospitals systems are operated
This is so relevant to the way Trump operates, and the Trump politicians WILL operate if he gets in again. The relevance of this to the American government is simply staggering!
No mention of the LGBTQ community
Yes men as far as the eye can see I’d suggest the west suffers from the same symptoms.🇦🇺🇺🇦🇦🇺🇺🇦🕊🕊🕊🕊
Oh there is so much going wrong here.
Can I help you?
Ronald Reagan’s assessment of Russia as ‘The Evil Empire resonates again!
Maybe Ukraine needs to put a price, value, on the land occupied by Russia, and request payment for it should Putin wants to keep it. Then money will be taken from Russia until it is paid.
Globally militaries are most often led by optimists, but operated by pessimists. Multiply by an Autocracy that requires everyone to be an optimist and that’s where a visible gap between what is said and can be done opens up.
Highlighting of Russian intelligence shortcomings lead the public toward a complacent attitude toward Russian capabilities. I would be cautious about the framing because this could be weaponsized (excuse this overused term).
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😂....nato is the biggest threat to world peace
I studiex internationL relations,the basic analysis concentrates c
On a countrys values,norms,attiturdes in thier world view,Putin did notxo that on UkrIne😅
Complete loyalty is possible only if you can blackmail other people with theirown past unethical and criminal acts. If you want to earn complete loyalty from an honest person with no criminal acts, then you can simply try to spread lies about her/him. It is impossible to earn complete loyalty from other people without playing manipulative and unfair games. During war, more people are inclined to comitting crimes. Spreading lies in a chaotic environment is much easier. So, you do not need to have advisors, people that you can count on, intelligence service that will protect you... All you need is people that are completely loyal to you and are ready to do anything for you. War is a perfect setting for producing loyal people.
It could be that the russian dwarf with himalayan ego is alone. He trusts no one, but thanks to the ukranian war, he produces loyal people on daily basis.
@@yrmanja remember the assault against Hitler by his own officers. It could have succeeded. Same thing can happen to Putin and this time succeed.
@@jakbak-y6f The weakest link could be Wagner soldiers or Chechens. Some recent events suggest that trafficking of soldiers is spreading like a a flood and it has become another criminal field for making easy money. Deeply traumatised chechens are the most loyal people to the russian dwarf. Wagner soldiers are highly internationalised, while chechens are still quite isolated. Ordinary russian ortodox people do not like chechens because of their islamic religion and mindset.
It was not lack of inteligent info it was stupiditi in excess.
Certainly, Putin worked as a counterintelligence officer in the former DDR at the time when nobody already believed that the USSR was a prosperous socialist state, a model for the future. So what kind of skills Putin would acquire in order to recruit anyone to work for the USSR? These skills are blackmail, bribery, lies, lots of lies. Putin acquired these skills and used them subsequently, when he became a tsar of Russians.
What is a "checkist" I am not sure of the spelling or what it is? I can guess but I would rather have an informed opinion.
Comes from "Tjeka".