A couple of notes about the video that I realized after posting: I don't know how I missed this, but there are actually stats about the average value of items! (although they are displayed in a way that makes it really difficult to tell what it is). It looks like the trend goes up for the first few days and then is relatively stable. For top 10 frequently traded items it looks like the value is exactly in the range I predicted: 50-150 until the last day of the test when values jump by quite a bit. For all items though, the average value starts fairly low, and climbs to quite a bit higher (it looks like 600-1200 is the average value!) I think that this is mainly due to the market for expensive items driving up the price significantly: Very few people have access to expensive items, and at the same time people who are going to be buying those rare items are going to be able to hoard gold due to being high skill, so my analysis is partially correct about this, but I think that I may have not correctly factored in WHO is likely to be using the trade market for gear: Anyone who wants high end gear will be using it, but relatively fewer people who are lower skill are likely to be using it, which will skew the number up highly, especially when high skill players are going to be adding potentially far more gold than the baseline to the marketplace. I didn't talk much about how money being passed around adds more effective gold than the 400 baseline (Keynesian approach) but the impact of this depends on the items being traded. For low value goods, trading will destroy much excess gold due to the tax + outside options being used, but for high value goods a lot of the gold will be reentering the economy, meaning that there will be more gold used than estimated. However items can reenter the economy too, so this effect goes both directions, but I would anticipate the gold side to be a bit stronger, which also reflects in the data above. I didn't talk about candy much, but candy will only get removed from the economy when people trade it for items using the merchant. This provides a good baseline for what candy should be worth in gold, but it's also worth noting that candy won't start leaving the marketplace until people decide that the outside option is good enough, so expect the value of candy to hit a stable low point over time. For average value, I have 0 idea why I went with 40-70 on the last slide. 40-100 seems like a more accurate range, especially given all of the uncertainties.
I don't speak economics but everything is more expansive in Fighter trade and cheaper in Wizard Bard trade is a thrift shop Good vid, even though I understood nothing LMAO
It's funny because your analysis seem to be on par on the prices for the avagare gear on the market. And the prices on the trade market are obviously just based on offer and demand. So, it's pretty interesting that the market intrinsically knows the average value of the item, without knowing it. Also, the last day for the play test money tend to be worthless, because it will all be destroyed, so you can't use the last day on your analysis, it's like trying to get market trends during the apocalypse. Not much use. And finally, your analysis in on point of what the market reflect, but it could be stronger in some points. I believe there will be inflation, not because of the amount of gear, but because of the amount of gold created. There will probably be more expensive highroller maps in order to fix this. But it will also add more goods (equipment). Very cool video!
Yeah I looked at the data for the last day of the previous playtest and I was flat out wrong about the impact of inflation towards the end. I underestimated the fact that people would not really be selling their gear for gold, but people who want to play the game more would want gear, pushing demand up a ton on the last day. Thanks for the comment!
Commenting for algorithm. Excellent breakdown + supplementary notes post-video posting. I hope we can get economy updates once the playtest/early access goes live! It would bring me joy to see further market analysis!
Great insights. I figured some of these out by spending quite a bit of time trading, but it's nice to see that it all makes sense. I would add, though, that prices skyrocket in final day of playtest because people just want to spend all the gold they have left.
100%. I think when making this, I figured that people would also want to sell the gear that they have left, but it seems like people weren't really doing that as much, and the actual stats support what you're saying.
I got a unique pair of pants in the normal dudgeon on the second day. It was off a common mod I think, or maybe a chest but definitely not anything special (mini bosses, lion chests, etc...). IDK if you were referring to just unique weapons or if they changed it, but you can get unique lvl armor in the normal dungeon at least. Also pants didn't have a single good roll I sold them for like 200g.
Also the economy kind of fell apart the last day or two of the test. Buying a green or blue with at least 1 good roll could usually be done with 50-150g but towards the end I was struggling to buy that same gear for 150g. I think with the short wipes, gold falls off hard towards the end. Not to the point where it’s worthless, but it probably depreciates somewhere between 25%-50%. Those are just my personal experiences tho while probably trading for an hour or two each day last test.
@@douglastakle8242 I think that exaggerates it, but I don't see the economy lasting a full 3 months. It takes people less then a week to basically have the best gear in the game, and even the average player can probably max out their bank in a few weeks. I think gear needs to be a bit rarer.
Sean, how does the limited inventory space factor in to things? In D&D, users cant hoard endless gold/items since there is a very limited stash space, even across multiple characters. Is there a real world example this limited cap space resembles?
That's a great question! One thing I saw higher skill streamers doing is that they would keep gems that sell for high value to vendors/ other items with high intrinsic value like candy so that they can store money more efficiently. In theory, people with a very large amount of money could turn it into gems that sell to vendors, uniques, or some other rare item that has a high value store just to be more space efficient, so it doesn't impact the economy too much other than preventing a ton of gold from leaving the economy through people "leaving" the economy while storing an insane amount of gold (which happens in real life when someone like Jeff Bezos moves a ton of money from a bank account in the US to an offshore bank account. This has somewhat of an impact on money flow). It will cause a bit more gold to leave the economy at the higher end, due to needing multiple transactions to "store" money beyond a certain point, but that effect should be relatively minimal. If there end up being season resets in DaD, limited gold space will be a good thing, as it will prevent the value of gold from being inflated too badly towards the end of the playtest (this is already an issue when looking at the data for the test). In real life, this would be the equivalent to if people couldn't hold their money in bank accounts and had to physically hold money. (Breaking bad has some great examples of how people might struggle with this.) Sometimes people are not confident in their currency or are looking for some kind of long term store of value, so people will use excess money to buy heirlooms, jewelry, or collectables. This is less common here in the US today due to the USD being very stable as far as currencies go, and due to the banking system here being heavily supported by the government and therefore highly robust to issues like bank runs, but isn't unheard of.
Did I miss something? I was hoping for a breakdown on approximately how much each type of item will sell for on the market. I understand that on average, most items on the market will be worth 40 - 100. What I really want to know is 'What makes a specific trade a good deal?' I'm not insanely familiar with dark and darker, but I am wondering, for instance, 'how much should I buy a purple ring for if my sole intention is to flip it for profit?' Obviously the buy price would need to be something like the following: Ideal Buy Price = (avg market price of item) - 31 [you want to buy the item at a low price such that you can flip it for a profit (with relative ease) once you lose your 15 gold for the buy and 15 gold for the sell] This would essentially guarantee that, with some patience, you could flip the item to a knowledgeable buyer with 1 gold profit (since you lose 30g of revenue from the incoming and outgoing trade from the flip). Of course, you want more, but that is the minimum justifiable buy price for arbitrage. The issue here is that there seems to be little to no information in this video about how much a typical purple ring goes for in the market - or really any item. Any suggested sources on average prices on the market by quality / item type?
It wouldn't be possible to state something like this without access to more specific data regarding items, since the price of specific items is going to be too variable depending on the rolls. Especially for rare items: The price is going to tend to fluctuate a lot more.
Nice video. A few suggestions: 1. Video should be shorter. I felt like this for this content, the sweet spot is probably around 12 minutes. 2. Slides should have less text. Ideally just a few bullet points with a few words each. Focus should be on what you say and the words are just there to emphasize or organize your thoughts. Many youtubers would just show gameplay footage while speaking so that the focus is on their words. 3. I know that I suggested shorter videos, so along with that I think that you should try to hit fewer points. Some analysis and conclusions will need to be left on the cutting room floor. 4. Repeat content. Re-emphasize your points.
Looking at the market for higher end gear (which I just missed in the dataset), the average price for those pieces of gear can be pretty high, and so if you're able to consistently get out while killing others or you can farm the act 2 bosses for gear, it's definitely worth it, but for the average person just hoping to get lucky with gear/drops, it's absolutely not worth it at all IMO.
A couple of notes about the video that I realized after posting:
I don't know how I missed this, but there are actually stats about the average value of items! (although they are displayed in a way that makes it really difficult to tell what it is). It looks like the trend goes up for the first few days and then is relatively stable. For top 10 frequently traded items it looks like the value is exactly in the range I predicted: 50-150 until the last day of the test when values jump by quite a bit. For all items though, the average value starts fairly low, and climbs to quite a bit higher (it looks like 600-1200 is the average value!) I think that this is mainly due to the market for expensive items driving up the price significantly: Very few people have access to expensive items, and at the same time people who are going to be buying those rare items are going to be able to hoard gold due to being high skill, so my analysis is partially correct about this, but I think that I may have not correctly factored in WHO is likely to be using the trade market for gear: Anyone who wants high end gear will be using it, but relatively fewer people who are lower skill are likely to be using it, which will skew the number up highly, especially when high skill players are going to be adding potentially far more gold than the baseline to the marketplace.
I didn't talk much about how money being passed around adds more effective gold than the 400 baseline (Keynesian approach) but the impact of this depends on the items being traded. For low value goods, trading will destroy much excess gold due to the tax + outside options being used, but for high value goods a lot of the gold will be reentering the economy, meaning that there will be more gold used than estimated. However items can reenter the economy too, so this effect goes both directions, but I would anticipate the gold side to be a bit stronger, which also reflects in the data above.
I didn't talk about candy much, but candy will only get removed from the economy when people trade it for items using the merchant. This provides a good baseline for what candy should be worth in gold, but it's also worth noting that candy won't start leaving the marketplace until people decide that the outside option is good enough, so expect the value of candy to hit a stable low point over time.
For average value, I have 0 idea why I went with 40-70 on the last slide. 40-100 seems like a more accurate range, especially given all of the uncertainties.
I don't speak economics but everything is more expansive in Fighter trade and cheaper in Wizard
Bard trade is a thrift shop
Good vid, even though I understood nothing LMAO
This is the kind of content I want from dark and darker.
It's funny because your analysis seem to be on par on the prices for the avagare gear on the market. And the prices on the trade market are obviously just based on offer and demand. So, it's pretty interesting that the market intrinsically knows the average value of the item, without knowing it.
Also, the last day for the play test money tend to be worthless, because it will all be destroyed, so you can't use the last day on your analysis, it's like trying to get market trends during the apocalypse. Not much use.
And finally, your analysis in on point of what the market reflect, but it could be stronger in some points. I believe there will be inflation, not because of the amount of gear, but because of the amount of gold created. There will probably be more expensive highroller maps in order to fix this. But it will also add more goods (equipment).
Very cool video!
Yeah I looked at the data for the last day of the previous playtest and I was flat out wrong about the impact of inflation towards the end. I underestimated the fact that people would not really be selling their gear for gold, but people who want to play the game more would want gear, pushing demand up a ton on the last day. Thanks for the comment!
These power points are taking me back to my college days and I'm loving it, definitely subbing! Keep up the awesome work!
Commenting for algorithm. Excellent breakdown + supplementary notes post-video posting. I hope we can get economy updates once the playtest/early access goes live! It would bring me joy to see further market analysis!
I just know you are a great professor, super easy to follow man
Legendaries get truly ridiculous when you realize that most of them are not good items. Unless it's a weapon or plate it still needs good rolls
Subbed because I wish you were my professor.
finally, was waiting for a video like this
Great insights. I figured some of these out by spending quite a bit of time trading, but it's nice to see that it all makes sense. I would add, though, that prices skyrocket in final day of playtest because people just want to spend all the gold they have left.
100%. I think when making this, I figured that people would also want to sell the gear that they have left, but it seems like people weren't really doing that as much, and the actual stats support what you're saying.
@@econsean In the end, I think that the only reason to hoard gold is to eventually use it to have fun with better gear
I am pretty sure DaD is not designed to be a dungeon crawler, but an economics simulation.
I like games, I like Economics...this is a nice blend of both :)
I got a unique pair of pants in the normal dudgeon on the second day. It was off a common mod I think, or maybe a chest but definitely not anything special (mini bosses, lion chests, etc...). IDK if you were referring to just unique weapons or if they changed it, but you can get unique lvl armor in the normal dungeon at least. Also pants didn't have a single good roll I sold them for like 200g.
Also the economy kind of fell apart the last day or two of the test. Buying a green or blue with at least 1 good roll could usually be done with 50-150g but towards the end I was struggling to buy that same gear for 150g. I think with the short wipes, gold falls off hard towards the end. Not to the point where it’s worthless, but it probably depreciates somewhere between 25%-50%. Those are just my personal experiences tho while probably trading for an hour or two each day last test.
It’s just because playtest is ending so everybody is trying to buy gear to use with their saved loot
@@douglastakle8242 I think that exaggerates it, but I don't see the economy lasting a full 3 months. It takes people less then a week to basically have the best gear in the game, and even the average player can probably max out their bank in a few weeks. I think gear needs to be a bit rarer.
Sean, how does the limited inventory space factor in to things? In D&D, users cant hoard endless gold/items since there is a very limited stash space, even across multiple characters. Is there a real world example this limited cap space resembles?
That's a great question! One thing I saw higher skill streamers doing is that they would keep gems that sell for high value to vendors/ other items with high intrinsic value like candy so that they can store money more efficiently. In theory, people with a very large amount of money could turn it into gems that sell to vendors, uniques, or some other rare item that has a high value store just to be more space efficient, so it doesn't impact the economy too much other than preventing a ton of gold from leaving the economy through people "leaving" the economy while storing an insane amount of gold (which happens in real life when someone like Jeff Bezos moves a ton of money from a bank account in the US to an offshore bank account. This has somewhat of an impact on money flow). It will cause a bit more gold to leave the economy at the higher end, due to needing multiple transactions to "store" money beyond a certain point, but that effect should be relatively minimal.
If there end up being season resets in DaD, limited gold space will be a good thing, as it will prevent the value of gold from being inflated too badly towards the end of the playtest (this is already an issue when looking at the data for the test).
In real life, this would be the equivalent to if people couldn't hold their money in bank accounts and had to physically hold money. (Breaking bad has some great examples of how people might struggle with this.) Sometimes people are not confident in their currency or are looking for some kind of long term store of value, so people will use excess money to buy heirlooms, jewelry, or collectables. This is less common here in the US today due to the USD being very stable as far as currencies go, and due to the banking system here being heavily supported by the government and therefore highly robust to issues like bank runs, but isn't unheard of.
Nice vid
Did I miss something? I was hoping for a breakdown on approximately how much each type of item will sell for on the market. I understand that on average, most items on the market will be worth 40 - 100. What I really want to know is 'What makes a specific trade a good deal?' I'm not insanely familiar with dark and darker, but I am wondering, for instance, 'how much should I buy a purple ring for if my sole intention is to flip it for profit?' Obviously the buy price would need to be something like the following:
Ideal Buy Price = (avg market price of item) - 31
[you want to buy the item at a low price such that you can flip it for a profit (with relative ease) once you lose your 15 gold for the buy and 15 gold for the sell]
This would essentially guarantee that, with some patience, you could flip the item to a knowledgeable buyer with 1 gold profit (since you lose 30g of revenue from the incoming and outgoing trade from the flip). Of course, you want more, but that is the minimum justifiable buy price for arbitrage.
The issue here is that there seems to be little to no information in this video about how much a typical purple ring goes for in the market - or really any item.
Any suggested sources on average prices on the market by quality / item type?
It wouldn't be possible to state something like this without access to more specific data regarding items, since the price of specific items is going to be too variable depending on the rolls. Especially for rare items: The price is going to tend to fluctuate a lot more.
Nice video. A few suggestions: 1. Video should be shorter. I felt like this for this content, the sweet spot is probably around 12 minutes. 2. Slides should have less text. Ideally just a few bullet points with a few words each. Focus should be on what you say and the words are just there to emphasize or organize your thoughts. Many youtubers would just show gameplay footage while speaking so that the focus is on their words. 3. I know that I suggested shorter videos, so along with that I think that you should try to hit fewer points. Some analysis and conclusions will need to be left on the cutting room floor. 4. Repeat content. Re-emphasize your points.
Quality content
Sick
Does it show Highroller is not worth entering it, judging by its cost and return, you also lose much better gear in HR.
Looking at the market for higher end gear (which I just missed in the dataset), the average price for those pieces of gear can be pretty high, and so if you're able to consistently get out while killing others or you can farm the act 2 bosses for gear, it's definitely worth it, but for the average person just hoping to get lucky with gear/drops, it's absolutely not worth it at all IMO.
Will this be on the test next week?
The next playtest is scheduled for mid april I think (approximately a month from now). :(
April 14th-19th
Yeah you can copy my notes if you want