I have been watching your foundational, educational videos and am so relieved that I'm not the only one seeing this. I have been in the businesses of dealing nostalgia based collectibles for 14 years. I see what you're saying over and over. When a generation reaches the age of approximately 35-65, they enter the spectrum of nostalgia buying. Prices get pushed up because of the buying capacity of high earning mid life individuals. Everything they enjoyed while young gets lionized and pedestalized to excess. Then they collectively enter their 60s-80s and unload everything. The next generation doesn't care and prices fall within reach of organic collectors. I went through this full strength with vinyl records. I sold them part time from 2009-2014. The fervor for 1955-1975 records was incredible. People were begging me to wait for their check to arrive to spend their last dollar on a clean Beatles record. I believe that is because the primary market for that era of records were in their 40s to 60s. That era of music is tapering because that market is aging out. Unless you have a sealed Beatles record or Blue Note record in good condition, most of that stuff will fall off forever. I have been dealing in parts for collector cars for 6 years. I am seeing the market for pre-75 parts fall lower and lower. Why? Unless you're talking about the timeless few makes and models, most cars have no nostalgia factor for millennials/Gen Z. 1959 Cadillacs will always command a high price. 1963 4 door Mercury Montereys and 53 Buick Specials wont. In contrast, I am selling the hell out of 1985-2005 collector car parts at the moment. Why? They are affordable and Gen X/older millennials now have some money and remember these 80s BMWs and 90s Hondas, etc. I project 1985-2005 auto parts to keep climbing for another 10-20 years before they start to fall off. The children born today will not give a shit about a 1985 E30 BMW. Maybe a Ferrari Testarossa, but not the run of the mull stuff.
Funny little anecdote. I’m gen z (22) and an E30 BMW is nostalgic to me. Specifically the m3 holds a special place in my heart. However, not from the traditional sense. One of my favorite musical artists, which holds true for a decent percentage of people my age, is Frank Ocean. His first mixtape pictured a vibrant orange BMW E30 M3. It was released in 2011. The name of the mixtape? Nostalgia, ultra. I want that car
@@kanerkane88 That's always true, man. 30's cars were popular in the 50s. 50s cars in the 80s. So on and so on. Now the 90s are in full voque in the 2020s. Have fun!
It's safest to collect only things you really like. If it's worthless in 20-30 years at least they gave you pleasure. Collecting comic books with fantastic cover art is my thing.
Yes it's true that teenagers these days are not exposed to comics and comic book shops. However I think the comic category is very unique amongst collectibles. The characters receive tremendous worldwide publicity due to television shows and films. I think even if post 1965 comics eventually go generally downward in price there will always be demand for the major post 1965 key issues. In addition due to slabbing many people now collect for the artwork on the cover. Almost like a limited edition print. So this category has the potential to attract the art enthusiast who appreciates the fantastic cover art being done on modern comics. It depends Less on nostalgia in that regard. Those are two demand drivers that most collectible categories do not possess.
I kind of agree. As someone who doesn’t care or has never read a comic. Some comics are so amazing to look at and can relate to a character. My guess, the top comics remain expensive while others fall off
@@EatMyPattys Many comics are used as source material. Ms. Marvel Kamala Khan comic sales are week but you would not know that from the way they are pushing her so heavy. So yes new people are getting in comics. Mostly as an afterthought after seeing her in TV/Movies/Net but yes new people are getting into comics. He is also forgetting many comic shops have moved online and do not use a brick-and-mortar model.
@@TOSStarTrek digital sales are negligible and for the most part, aren't even considered in the market. Comic sales are faling, despite their monetary gain rising. Most MCU movie goers do not read comics at all. Comics will fade and either manga will completely take over (as we are seeing already), or comics and stuff like that will just cease to exist completely in the west outside of fringe fanbases.
@@OrphanCrippler1 Was not talking about digital comics. Comic sales have had huge drops in the past. Marketing is a problem. Manga sales shows this very clearly. Go in book store Manga is twice the size of comics Direct Marketing short term worked . Long term it is a bad idea. Marketing is a large part of the problem. Ask a Manga reader why they read Manga when they are almost a carbon copy of the Manga shows. Going down exclusive the path is bad idea. Harry Davidson went there and they are barley holding on in 2021
I have 0 nostalgia or attachment to comics. I don't watch Marvel movies. I can afford higher-end comics. I will never buy comics for any reason. Genuinely curious as someone that doesn't have any bias toward INVESTING in comics long term. How do you know young people today that watch modern Marvel movies today are going to care about the original comics at $20k/pop in 20 years?
I wonder how many people are hoarding popular video games today like Animal Crossing, in the hopes of unloading them for millions of dollars in 25 years time. I imagine quite a few, and I also imagine all of them are going to be disappointed.
Great video, Shawn! We're deep in the Mass Speculation phase for Alpha MTG (almost at the 30 year mark). Pros: Alphas have uniqueness (corners), utility (Old School / A40), scarcity (low print run/ Reserved List), nostalgia, easy-to-navigate secondary markets, and younger players entering the market for modern cards might want the originals one day. Cons: 1. Paper MTG losing popularity - long term relevance of physical cards dwindles 2. Massive economic downturn (vintage asset demand disintegrates) 3. Some speculative prices are propped up by Reserved List if it was ever changed
4. Distribution through Amazon makes it appear as though the game is not popular and very few new players come into the game. Hope it’s not true, but the shelves in retail stores are jam packed with magic, appearing untouched, while the rest of the isle is absolutely empty. Not a good look.
Man, I’m consuming all your content today. Feels like I’m back in grad school only with a much more engaging professor. I love the concept that the best long term collectibles were never intended to be collectibles. Makes a lot of sense!
But I never understand why he thinks rare books are a safer long-term investment than comic books. Are younger people really more interested in The Great Gatsby than in Spiderman? I just don't see it. We're increasingly a visual culture.
Shawn, Fantastic Video! This was such a well put presentation that made 100% sense. I've said this before, this is some college level maybe even Master's level in Finance content. Really enjoyed it! Keep up the great work Professor.
I have some friends with young kids (10-12) that love to learn about the history of Nintendo and the bit wars between Nintendo and Sega. I believe they will carry on that interest long term. I feel the younger generation will carry the video game collectible market onward. At the very least for Nintendo, maybe not the other franchises.
This video actually makes me think of how the idea of Metazoo as a tcg seems like its built around being an investment/collectible right from the beginning. Trading card games in itself are "collectible" card games but everything about metazoo feels very off to me where it feels very speculative right from the start and I feel like most people who bought in have this pyramid scheme type vibe to it as if they are selling herbalife lol and its only been like less than a year
When I was a kid I remember visiting my local library and seeing a large comics section. 30 years, that same library has a large section of manga and the comics have disappeared. In 30 years time the teenagers reading manga today are going to be nostalgic for today's titles.
Man your videos make me feel bad about myself haha. I love collecting things in general and have been making a lot of money these past couple years but your videos make me feel like a Timmy when I would generally think of myself as not. It is truly difficult to disconnect from some items emotionally. This is fantastic stuff, thank you.
I think MTG has definitely reached the do or die phase. I do keep seeing young people at the events though, but I am fearful that they will be priced out of the new products by Hasbro soon. I like Lego because it gets opened so much and parents with nostalgia keep on giving it to their kids which creates nostalgia for them and so on. You have to be able to pick winners though. I am involved in both Lego and MTG but I know what I would be giving to my kids to play with! Great content!
Great content yet again. This should be common sense. When you think about it, it's all co-relating to where the target audience is in life and the world around us, and of course how many devils are stirring the pot and hiding supply from us
product cycles in consumer hardware generally aren’t due to “planned obsolescence”, but rather due to the need for incumbents to continuously innovate to remain competitive in an open [competitive] marketplace
This channel is not about the fact that collecting is bad. Yes we need to pleasure ourselves with objects that matters to us. This channel just removes the illusion that you gonna be rich for sure with the objects you bought with your hard work money.
I've recently sent off a Nintendo DS to be graded by VGA. It was in excellent shape, still sealed and the box seemed to have no signs of wear/water damage. I expect to get a high grade on this and I hope to resell it while the market is still more bullish towards graded games. I have two questions. Did I possibly shoot myself in the foot on resale value by not going with Wata (I learned about Wata from your videos, thanks!) and taking the heritage auctions route. My second question is there an auction equivalent of Heritage for VGA items? If not, how would you recommend to possibly gauge interest/evaluation in my item? As far as I have looked, I haven't seen any other graded DSs on the open market. I also want to thank you for the wealth of knowledge you openly share and I've learned quite a bit from your content. Please do more on coin grading and collectibles! I also have a love for it I inherited from my grandfather and I hope to keep his most prized pieces, as well as possibly liquidating a few to help pay for his medical bills. Thank you again and I can't wait for more videos! :)
A good early example of Stages 1- 4 was Universal Monsters and Three Stooges of the 1930s. Both were big-time during the 1930's,than died out by the late 1940's,but do to nostalgic factors both became big again 20 to 30 years later. Sadly,now these 2 classics markets are now small niche as most of their audiences died off to lessen their interest.
You always have great videos man. I was pondering the other day if cell phones might become a collectible at some point. They remind me in many ways of video games.
Sequal please! Excellent video...very interesting breakdown of the timeline and blueprint for the collectible market. What about these Funko pops, do they fall into the beanie baby parallel. I never bought or collected them, didn't interest me thankfully, as I noticed their manufactured scarcity, over saturation of the product and frankly just not appealing in any way, shape or form. Perhaps I'm wrong but would like to get your view.
Awesome video! I’m at the age now where I’m drawn to a lot of nostalgia. 2 questions - 1) do sports cards follow this life cycle? Surely they start out as collectibles? Is it just based on the era the player on the card played? Eg- current nostalgia would be rookie cards for players from mid-late 80s 👀 2) I had a lot of Lego space sets as a kid in the 80s. Now watching lots of Lego space sets on eBay. They’re currently in phase 3, correct?
Actually thinking about this a bit more in relation to sports cards - whilst they are ‘collectibles’ from the outset, we don’t know *how* collectible they are until well into their careers and after their retirement.
It actually depends alot. What he said is "generally" which I think are mostly true. But there's also alot of variations. Which would deter the directions and longevity of the so called "collectibles".
Great video, thanks. Alarming and informative. I'd be interested to hear your opinion on some specific markets... You mentioned MTG in passing, but do you feel younger collectors are entering that space? Are there other signs one can look for to determine if real legs are growing under the category, or if it's all speculation?
Great insights and some that I came to s conclusion on long ago; which is why Pokemon is at greatest risk - everyone is buying out the market and forgetting to leave anything for kids to get into. I collect because I enjoy it first and foremost and know there is investment potential going for the right areas. I really enjoy your videos so please keep them up, I just wish you weren’t so negatively biased towards collectibles being bad, it’s a consistent theme in all your videos. I think the future generation would lean on a video game collectible than some random piece of antique furniture or bank note.
With all due respect, it’s quite ironic that you posted this in a video about the lifecycle of pop culture collectibles. Your last statement is 100% incorrect. History tells us so…do your own research. Again, I don’t care whether you like, dislike, subscribe, unsubscribe. It’s not me who is biased, it’s the ‘Timmies’ who don’t understand these core lessons. Fifty years ago you would have been here arguing that The Lone Ranger is iconic and eternal. News flash, he’s not and neither is Pokemon and Mario…
Feeling like I should’ve unloaded my GSX-1 already, but I’m also torn as to whether or not I should hold onto it until we see the X-Men enter the MCU seeing as how post 1975 first appearances, major keys, etc always seem to reach their peak values right before movie appearances 🤔 great info as always. Very well explained although I wouldn’t mind picking your brain more in regards to a particular example like GSX-1 😄 I’ll watch anything of yours though at this point 👍🏻 thanks again
Shawn has brought up GSX1 several times in other videos. I also have a copy and I will wait for X-men annoucements in the MCU in a few years. I would hold on to it. However if you need to sell, and you bought it when it was way cheaper then selling it now is still worth it for a great return. BTW have it presse, cleaned and graded by CGC if you want you max return.
Maybe a dumb question but what about "playboys" I remeber people collecting PB was common in the late 80 and 90s. Since print media is dead could some of these eventually jump in value?
I wonder if academia might play a role in converting collectibles into antiques. The reason classical music remains strong is because music teachers teach it to their students. Jazz is being taught now. But who knows in hundreds of years, metal and hip hop would also be taught.
Im curious how this model applies to Games Workshop miniatures. The product has been around for several decades but was only ever a niche thing but in the last few years they have seen exponential growth which could diminish within the next decade. The company has a habit of creating FOMO by intentionally creating a mismatch between their supply and the demand and the products also have the advantage of being model kits that most buyers will wish to open and assemble.
I'm sure no one was alive when Honus Wagner was alive. So no nostalgia was built yet his card mint sold for 3 millions. If you can't make money in your lifetime. Maybe your family 3 generations later could. Don't think about yourself.
I’d be curious to know if there is currently a pop culture collectible category or brand that has already progressed to become established. Would sports cards already be considered as that?
@@ReservedInvestments thank you for gracing me with the response. I feel genuinely honored. 👍🏾 appreciate all your content as always. Hope i’ll be able to become an established collector like you as well
That's why all the Magic the Gathering Old school/Vintage/Legacy pro Reserved list apologist "players" will be left holding their Reserved list decks in their hands till they're six feet under and contrary to what they think, nobody else would want to smell their cardboard by then. Their arguments about retaining value will really be mute.
I'm not sure I agree with the assessment on Hot Wheels, I feel like the market is still strong both for modern era and the originals from 1968-1970. With that said once the Corona Bubble dies down I'll be interested in the state of the market.
Hey Shawn you said the most important part for a collectible to keep its long term interest is exposure to next generation. Well the generations under 30 yo now have had little exposure to coins and notes. So wouldn’t coins nots be dying in next decades. Similar to stamps dying from lack of exposure as well? Seems like money is all digital now. Zelle venom crypto Apple Pay etc. It’s like how cassettes and cds haven’t been used for decades. Everything is turning “digital”?
Nope, because coins and notes are history, pop culture collectibles are not. Don’t believe me? Most pop culture collectibles are falling in value anywhere from 20-70% right now. Tell me what high profile coins and notes have fell that much in the past few years? The answer almost none.
@@ReservedInvestmentsI don’t follow coins but I’ll take your word. I am interested in that market as I’m a precious metal Timmy as well tbh. I’ve had interest in numismatics for some time
Seems like pokemon is on stage 4 as of now with the big boom. Though I am curious to know what your thoughts are on the odds of it passing the 4th stage. Unlike barbies and comics, pokemon is still being exposed to younger generations. Just went to fair last night and a majority of the stands had pokemon merchandises. Of course this is still speculation and it could just die off tomorrow but I would like to hear your opinion on this.
At this point I'd say Pokemon is a pretty safe investment card and game wise. Sealed products overall will do much better. Source? I grew up with pokemon when it came out and I have a Son that is also into pokemon and so are many of his friends/kids at school.
Chances are Pokémon will become established and stand the test of time. My reasoning for this is they are the only company that can produce it (unlike sports cards). So, they control the popularity moving forward through their actions alone. Up to this point, they have done exceptionally - It has a 25 year history and is still very relevant. In Japan, it is more like a national treasure. They go to great lengths to produce high-quality, unique items, that appeal to collectors, players, and kids - and at good intervals. Video games, tv and movies are regularly released to get new people interested. They also make products that introduce new players to the game and plushes, etc. to appeal to others. They are careful with the game itself as to keep it fresh, but competitive. If some sort of vr world overtook everyone and we no longer played board games etc. I’d be thinking we would potentially start the collecting cycle timeline, but I feel like Pokémon will fall only after many others do, and unless they do it to themselves, it’ll be a bigger change that causes a decline. Just to be clear though, I’m not suggesting their won’t be ups and downs, just that if prices get stable, there are plenty of new kids interested (like you mentioned) to keep things going for a long time.
Whats your opinion on pokemon cards? If I'm understanding the theory correctly, we had the peak of pokemon last year and it it been tanking ever since then... However, younger generation are still enjoying pokemon so that would indicate that it will be an established market? Could we then see another bubble/peak 20 years later?
Another great vid Shawn. My son is 11 and some of his friends play Pokémon and collect and read comics. Potentially these "could" become established markets. 🤞 They don't care for or collect 1st edition Nintendo games though, sorry gamer investors. Agree/Disagree?
These videos of yours should be watched by all serious collectors. It will be interesting to see how comic book collecting evolves if floppies are no longer produced. There definitely is a lot of hype between back issues and film/movie story lines. This synergy seems rather forced.
Yes it will. But it just won't be what you think it's going to be. Whoever thought that people would be paying over $1,000 for old T-shirts from the 1980s and even the 1990s. But nobody saved them. We all wore them and then threw them out..
17:20 is the caveat missed by many in the comic "investor" community. Watching a movie on a tablet or reading on comixology is NOT the same connection to the product as walking into a drug store and buying a comic book. (And GS X-Men 1, Hulk 181, ASM 300 are NOT scarce assets, even in high grade... double strike!)
@@ReservedInvestments S&P 500 and soon on are good for people who live in the developed world but in the third world with all the corruption its limited as to what we can invest into. imagine I put 30k into my pension and 30 years later its worth less than 33k! The only way you can invest in anything that could keep up with inflation is commodities and/or collectables and properties or start a business The last two is out of my league at my age(49) and income level so all I got is collectables Wish I saw videos like this one in 2020 as I went 100% into to collectables instead of your coins...at the time didn't realize it was so easy to get into
I have been watching your foundational, educational videos and am so relieved that I'm not the only one seeing this. I have been in the businesses of dealing nostalgia based collectibles for 14 years. I see what you're saying over and over. When a generation reaches the age of approximately 35-65, they enter the spectrum of nostalgia buying. Prices get pushed up because of the buying capacity of high earning mid life individuals. Everything they enjoyed while young gets lionized and pedestalized to excess. Then they collectively enter their 60s-80s and unload everything. The next generation doesn't care and prices fall within reach of organic collectors.
I went through this full strength with vinyl records. I sold them part time from 2009-2014. The fervor for 1955-1975 records was incredible. People were begging me to wait for their check to arrive to spend their last dollar on a clean Beatles record. I believe that is because the primary market for that era of records were in their 40s to 60s. That era of music is tapering because that market is aging out. Unless you have a sealed Beatles record or Blue Note record in good condition, most of that stuff will fall off forever.
I have been dealing in parts for collector cars for 6 years. I am seeing the market for pre-75 parts fall lower and lower. Why? Unless you're talking about the timeless few makes and models, most cars have no nostalgia factor for millennials/Gen Z. 1959 Cadillacs will always command a high price. 1963 4 door Mercury Montereys and 53 Buick Specials wont. In contrast, I am selling the hell out of 1985-2005 collector car parts at the moment. Why? They are affordable and Gen X/older millennials now have some money and remember these 80s BMWs and 90s Hondas, etc. I project 1985-2005 auto parts to keep climbing for another 10-20 years before they start to fall off. The children born today will not give a shit about a 1985 E30 BMW. Maybe a Ferrari Testarossa, but not the run of the mull stuff.
Your comment is a breath of fresh air. Thank you so much for posting!
Funny little anecdote. I’m gen z (22) and an E30 BMW is nostalgic to me. Specifically the m3 holds a special place in my heart. However, not from the traditional sense. One of my favorite musical artists, which holds true for a decent percentage of people my age, is Frank Ocean. His first mixtape pictured a vibrant orange BMW E30 M3. It was released in 2011.
The name of the mixtape? Nostalgia, ultra.
I want that car
@@kanerkane88 That's always true, man. 30's cars were popular in the 50s. 50s cars in the 80s. So on and so on. Now the 90s are in full voque in the 2020s. Have fun!
It's safest to collect only things you really like. If it's worthless in 20-30 years at least they gave you pleasure. Collecting comic books with fantastic cover art is my thing.
agree, thats also my point of view!!!
Bingo! That's always been how I've been collecting. Personal goals are so much sweeter than a graded showpiece you can brag about spending $??? on
I like collecting stocks of potential evil companies.
His neighbors are like: “He’s yelling again!! Who’s he even talking to? He’s unstable!!! I saw inside once, he has tons of boxes of stuff.”
"He is probably on the phone again. With this Jimmie, Kimmie and Poindexter, or whatever they are called."
@@MightyJabroni LOL amazing!!!
I'm all about white board videos. And I learn a lot.
Yes it's true that teenagers these days are not exposed to comics and comic book shops. However I think the comic category is very unique amongst collectibles. The characters receive tremendous worldwide publicity due to television shows and films. I think even if post 1965 comics eventually go generally downward in price there will always be demand for the major post 1965 key issues. In addition due to slabbing many people now collect for the artwork on the cover. Almost like a limited edition print. So this category has the potential to attract the art enthusiast who appreciates the fantastic cover art being done on modern comics. It depends Less on nostalgia in that regard. Those are two demand drivers that most collectible categories do not possess.
I kind of agree. As someone who doesn’t care or has never read a comic. Some comics are so amazing to look at and can relate to a character. My guess, the top comics remain expensive while others fall off
@@EatMyPattys Many comics are used as source material. Ms. Marvel Kamala Khan comic sales are week but you would not know that from the way they are pushing her so heavy. So yes new people are getting in comics. Mostly as an afterthought after seeing her in TV/Movies/Net but yes new people are getting into comics. He is also forgetting many comic shops have moved online and do not use a brick-and-mortar model.
@@TOSStarTrek digital sales are negligible and for the most part, aren't even considered in the market. Comic sales are faling, despite their monetary gain rising. Most MCU movie goers do not read comics at all. Comics will fade and either manga will completely take over (as we are seeing already), or comics and stuff like that will just cease to exist completely in the west outside of fringe fanbases.
@@OrphanCrippler1 Was not talking about digital comics. Comic sales have had huge drops in the past. Marketing is a problem. Manga sales shows this very clearly. Go in book store Manga is twice the size of comics Direct Marketing short term worked . Long term it is a bad idea. Marketing is a large part of the problem. Ask a Manga reader why they read Manga when they are almost a carbon copy of the Manga shows. Going down exclusive the path is bad idea. Harry Davidson went there and they are barley holding on in 2021
I have 0 nostalgia or attachment to comics. I don't watch Marvel movies. I can afford higher-end comics. I will never buy comics for any reason.
Genuinely curious as someone that doesn't have any bias toward INVESTING in comics long term.
How do you know young people today that watch modern Marvel movies today are going to care about the original comics at $20k/pop in 20 years?
These channels are the true gems, no clickbait title for views but more to educate viewers on particular topics. Awesome stuff.
I hope the other people out there watching these videos realize that it’s borderline criminal that we get all this information FOR FREE. Thank you!
Thank you!
I wonder how many people are hoarding popular video games today like Animal Crossing, in the hopes of unloading them for millions of dollars in 25 years time. I imagine quite a few, and I also imagine all of them are going to be disappointed.
Stopping by again. Was not dissappointed. Very well done vid. 👍
Great video, Shawn!
We're deep in the Mass Speculation phase for Alpha MTG (almost at the 30 year mark).
Pros:
Alphas have uniqueness (corners), utility (Old School / A40), scarcity (low print run/ Reserved List), nostalgia, easy-to-navigate secondary markets, and younger players entering the market for modern cards might want the originals one day.
Cons:
1. Paper MTG losing popularity - long term relevance of physical cards dwindles
2. Massive economic downturn (vintage asset demand disintegrates)
3. Some speculative prices are propped up by Reserved List if it was ever changed
4. Distribution through Amazon makes it appear as though the game is not popular and very few new players come into the game. Hope it’s not true, but the shelves in retail stores are jam packed with magic, appearing untouched, while the rest of the isle is absolutely empty. Not a good look.
Great video, so many speculative channels out there feeding off people, this channel is an absolute public service!
Love listening to this guy.
Me to man
i learned a lot from this video! you make really informative content, thanks for sharing!!
Thank you!
Man, I’m consuming all your content today. Feels like I’m back in grad school only with a much more engaging professor. I love the concept that the best long term collectibles were never intended to be collectibles. Makes a lot of sense!
Thank you!
But I never understand why he thinks rare books are a safer long-term investment than comic books. Are younger people really more interested in The Great Gatsby than in Spiderman? I just don't see it. We're increasingly a visual culture.
Great video !!!! Appreciate you sharing the cycle with us and the breakdown...
That marker is priceless
My Alf pogs are still going to Melmac, I have diamond hands
Remember Alf? He's back, in pog form
Okay Milhouse
Shawn, Fantastic Video! This was such a well put presentation that made 100% sense. I've said this before, this is some college level maybe even Master's level in Finance content. Really enjoyed it! Keep up the great work Professor.
This was really great info. Thank you for putting it together and sharing.
Thank you for sharing your point of view. Lot of knowledge to soak up. Oh wow what a good lesson to learn .
I have some friends with young kids (10-12) that love to learn about the history of Nintendo and the bit wars between Nintendo and Sega. I believe they will carry on that interest long term. I feel the younger generation will carry the video game collectible market onward. At the very least for Nintendo, maybe not the other franchises.
This video actually makes me think of how the idea of Metazoo as a tcg seems like its built around being an investment/collectible right from the beginning. Trading card games in itself are "collectible" card games but everything about metazoo feels very off to me where it feels very speculative right from the start and I feel like most people who bought in have this pyramid scheme type vibe to it as if they are selling herbalife lol and its only been like less than a year
Every time he says Harry Rinker, do a shot.
Appreciate the insights as always Shawn!
Returning here this is a great video. 😊
Good information here. Thank you.
When I was a kid I remember visiting my local library and seeing a large comics section. 30 years, that same library has a large section of manga and the comics have disappeared. In 30 years time the teenagers reading manga today are going to be nostalgic for today's titles.
Man your videos make me feel bad about myself haha. I love collecting things in general and have been making a lot of money these past couple years but your videos make me feel like a Timmy when I would generally think of myself as not. It is truly difficult to disconnect from some items emotionally. This is fantastic stuff, thank you.
Please don't feel bad. This is the perspective of someone who has been in the trade since the age of 12...and I am in my 40's at present time.
Another awesome video! Keep them coming. Quickly becoming my favorite channel
we like these videos :) and you need to make a sequel....and a prequel. And what ever it takes!
interesting stuff! please do more content like this!
One of your best video's! Should aswer a lot of questions. Thank you very much 😊
It’s true, people named Poindexter are only 1 per case. Pretty rare.
I think MTG has definitely reached the do or die phase. I do keep seeing young people at the events though, but I am fearful that they will be priced out of the new products by Hasbro soon. I like Lego because it gets opened so much and parents with nostalgia keep on giving it to their kids which creates nostalgia for them and so on. You have to be able to pick winners though. I am involved in both Lego and MTG but I know what I would be giving to my kids to play with! Great content!
Great content yet again. This should be common sense.
When you think about it, it's all co-relating to where the target audience is in life and the world around us, and of course how many devils are stirring the pot and hiding supply from us
product cycles in consumer hardware generally aren’t due to “planned obsolescence”, but rather due to the need for incumbents to continuously innovate to remain competitive in an open [competitive] marketplace
This channel is not about the fact that collecting is bad. Yes we need to pleasure ourselves with objects that matters to us. This channel just removes the illusion that you gonna be rich for sure with the objects you bought with your hard work money.
Need to watch this one. Hoping for the "why I should be a vendor" bit :)
Great video Reserve investments.
Thank you!
I've recently sent off a Nintendo DS to be graded by VGA. It was in excellent shape, still sealed and the box seemed to have no signs of wear/water damage. I expect to get a high grade on this and I hope to resell it while the market is still more bullish towards graded games.
I have two questions. Did I possibly shoot myself in the foot on resale value by not going with Wata (I learned about Wata from your videos, thanks!) and taking the heritage auctions route. My second question is there an auction equivalent of Heritage for VGA items? If not, how would you recommend to possibly gauge interest/evaluation in my item? As far as I have looked, I haven't seen any other graded DSs on the open market.
I also want to thank you for the wealth of knowledge you openly share and I've learned quite a bit from your content. Please do more on coin grading and collectibles! I also have a love for it I inherited from my grandfather and I hope to keep his most prized pieces, as well as possibly liquidating a few to help pay for his medical bills.
Thank you again and I can't wait for more videos! :)
I haven’t watched the video yet but have to say. Great topic! I can tell just from your chart.
A good early example of Stages 1- 4 was Universal Monsters and Three Stooges of the 1930s. Both were big-time during the 1930's,than died out by the late 1940's,but do to nostalgic factors both became big again 20 to 30 years later. Sadly,now these 2 classics markets are now small niche as most of their audiences died off to lessen their interest.
You always have great videos man. I was pondering the other day if cell phones might become a collectible at some point. They remind me in many ways of video games.
The very first iPhone just might be…
Sequal please! Excellent video...very interesting breakdown of the timeline and blueprint for the collectible market. What about these Funko pops, do they fall into the beanie baby parallel. I never bought or collected them, didn't interest me thankfully, as I noticed their manufactured scarcity, over saturation of the product and frankly just not appealing in any way, shape or form. Perhaps I'm wrong but would like to get your view.
You have a great channel sir!
Thank you!
Awesome video! I’m at the age now where I’m drawn to a lot of nostalgia. 2 questions -
1) do sports cards follow this life cycle? Surely they start out as collectibles? Is it just based on the era the player on the card played? Eg- current nostalgia would be rookie cards for players from mid-late 80s 👀
2) I had a lot of Lego space sets as a kid in the 80s. Now watching lots of Lego space sets on eBay. They’re currently in phase 3, correct?
Actually thinking about this a bit more in relation to sports cards - whilst they are ‘collectibles’ from the outset, we don’t know *how* collectible they are until well into their careers and after their retirement.
Great video, Shawn. Very informative. And your presentation skills have gotten better every time. (Need a larger whiteboard, though.). ;)
It actually depends alot. What he said is "generally" which I think are mostly true. But there's also alot of variations. Which would deter the directions and longevity of the so called "collectibles".
Great video, thanks. Alarming and informative. I'd be interested to hear your opinion on some specific markets... You mentioned MTG in passing, but do you feel younger collectors are entering that space? Are there other signs one can look for to determine if real legs are growing under the category, or if it's all speculation?
Great insights and some that I came to s conclusion on long ago; which is why Pokemon is at greatest risk - everyone is buying out the market and forgetting to leave anything for kids to get into. I collect because I enjoy it first and foremost and know there is investment potential going for the right areas. I really enjoy your videos so please keep them up, I just wish you weren’t so negatively biased towards collectibles being bad, it’s a consistent theme in all your videos. I think the future generation would lean on a video game collectible than some random piece of antique furniture or bank note.
With all due respect, it’s quite ironic that you posted this in a video about the lifecycle of pop culture collectibles. Your last statement is 100% incorrect. History tells us so…do your own research. Again, I don’t care whether you like, dislike, subscribe, unsubscribe. It’s not me who is biased, it’s the ‘Timmies’ who don’t understand these core lessons. Fifty years ago you would have been here arguing that The Lone Ranger is iconic and eternal. News flash, he’s not and neither is Pokemon and Mario…
Feeling like I should’ve unloaded my GSX-1 already, but I’m also torn as to whether or not I should hold onto it until we see the X-Men enter the MCU seeing as how post 1975 first appearances, major keys, etc always seem to reach their peak values right before movie appearances 🤔 great info as always. Very well explained although I wouldn’t mind picking your brain more in regards to a particular example like GSX-1 😄 I’ll watch anything of yours though at this point 👍🏻 thanks again
Shawn has brought up GSX1 several times in other videos. I also have a copy and I will wait for X-men annoucements in the MCU in a few years. I would hold on to it. However if you need to sell, and you bought it when it was way cheaper then selling it now is still worth it for a great return. BTW have it presse, cleaned and graded by CGC if you want you max return.
Maybe a dumb question but what about "playboys" I remeber people collecting PB was common in the late 80 and 90s. Since print media is dead could some of these eventually jump in value?
I wonder if academia might play a role in converting collectibles into antiques. The reason classical music remains strong is because music teachers teach it to their students. Jazz is being taught now. But who knows in hundreds of years, metal and hip hop would also be taught.
Jus found your channel it’s really great! Please do a follow up I would love to hear more!
Thank you!
Im curious how this model applies to Games Workshop miniatures. The product has been around for several decades but was only ever a niche thing but in the last few years they have seen exponential growth which could diminish within the next decade. The company has a habit of creating FOMO by intentionally creating a mismatch between their supply and the demand and the products also have the advantage of being model kits that most buyers will wish to open and assemble.
Hello. Sorry I didn't catch why tout made a différence between pogs and pokémon cards right from the beginning?
Shawn, let's get it!!!!
yeah like how you ended the video. I plan to take full advantage of some short-term collectibles to the timmys and the kimmys when the time is right
Same here
I'm sure no one was alive when Honus Wagner was alive. So no nostalgia was built yet his card mint sold for 3 millions. If you can't make money in your lifetime. Maybe your family 3 generations later could. Don't think about yourself.
That’s not nostalgia though, that’s history. Big difference…😉. Hence why I like rare coins…
I’d be curious to know if there is currently a pop culture collectible category or brand that has already progressed to become established. Would sports cards already be considered as that?
An established collectible can still die out. Just look at Hummels.
@@ReservedInvestments thank you for gracing me with the response. I feel genuinely honored. 👍🏾 appreciate all your content as always. Hope i’ll be able to become an established collector like you as well
Rudy needs to lend you his whiteboard.
That's why all the Magic the Gathering Old school/Vintage/Legacy pro Reserved list apologist "players" will be left holding their Reserved list decks in their hands till they're six feet under and contrary to what they think, nobody else would want to smell their cardboard by then. Their arguments about retaining value will really be mute.
rudys ex is just jealous
Great video and overall content
You never ever talked about militaria. I'm talking about "small" militaria like medals, uniforms etc... What do you think about that market? Thx.
Excellent video!
I'm not sure I agree with the assessment on Hot Wheels, I feel like the market is still strong both for modern era and the originals from 1968-1970.
With that said once the Corona Bubble dies down I'll be interested in the state of the market.
Is there a life cycle for antiques, art and historical items?
Yup, upcoming video... ;)
Hey Shawn you said the most important part for a collectible to keep its long term interest is exposure to next generation.
Well the generations under 30 yo now have had little exposure to coins and notes. So wouldn’t coins nots be dying in next decades. Similar to stamps dying from lack of exposure as well?
Seems like money is all digital now. Zelle venom crypto Apple Pay etc. It’s like how cassettes and cds haven’t been used for decades. Everything is turning “digital”?
Nope, because coins and notes are history, pop culture collectibles are not. Don’t believe me? Most pop culture collectibles are falling in value anywhere from 20-70% right now. Tell me what high profile coins and notes have fell that much in the past few years? The answer almost none.
@@ReservedInvestmentsI don’t follow coins but I’ll take your word. I am interested in that market as I’m a precious metal Timmy as well tbh. I’ve had interest in numismatics for some time
If any of this information is not obvious to anyone then you are just not old enough to have seen it for yourself.
Correct. Most people I speak to think metazoo, nft, Pokémon etc are all going to make them billionaires. They are all 35 or under
Wish I knew the concept of this 30 year rule, 30 years ago. 🙂
best info on you tube.
Seems like pokemon is on stage 4 as of now with the big boom. Though I am curious to know what your thoughts are on the odds of it passing the 4th stage. Unlike barbies and comics, pokemon is still being exposed to younger generations. Just went to fair last night and a majority of the stands had pokemon merchandises. Of course this is still speculation and it could just die off tomorrow but I would like to hear your opinion on this.
At this point I'd say Pokemon is a pretty safe investment card and game wise. Sealed products overall will do much better. Source? I grew up with pokemon when it came out and I have a Son that is also into pokemon and so are many of his friends/kids at school.
Pokémon is very popular with kids today.
Chances are Pokémon will become established and stand the test of time. My reasoning for this is they are the only company that can produce it (unlike sports cards). So, they control the popularity moving forward through their actions alone. Up to this point, they have done exceptionally - It has a 25 year history and is still very relevant. In Japan, it is more like a national treasure. They go to great lengths to produce high-quality, unique items, that appeal to collectors, players, and kids - and at good intervals. Video games, tv and movies are regularly released to get new people interested. They also make products that introduce new players to the game and plushes, etc. to appeal to others. They are careful with the game itself as to keep it fresh, but competitive. If some sort of vr world overtook everyone and we no longer played board games etc. I’d be thinking we would potentially start the collecting cycle timeline, but I feel like Pokémon will fall only after many others do, and unless they do it to themselves, it’ll be a bigger change that causes a decline. Just to be clear though, I’m not suggesting their won’t be ups and downs, just that if prices get stable, there are plenty of new kids interested (like you mentioned) to keep things going for a long time.
Whats your opinion on pokemon cards? If I'm understanding the theory correctly, we had the peak of pokemon last year and it it been tanking ever since then... However, younger generation are still enjoying pokemon so that would indicate that it will be an established market? Could we then see another bubble/peak 20 years later?
Done a plethora of videos on this. Pokemon is speculative, not established.
Another great vid Shawn. My son is 11 and some of his friends play Pokémon and collect and read comics. Potentially these "could" become established markets. 🤞 They don't care for or collect 1st edition Nintendo games though, sorry gamer investors. Agree/Disagree?
Instructions unclear, I bought 10 cases of evolving skies and am now confused
These videos of yours should be watched by all serious collectors. It will be interesting to see how comic book collecting evolves if floppies are no longer produced. There definitely is a lot of hype between back issues and film/movie story lines. This synergy seems rather forced.
Now that everyone buys everything sealed and hoards it is any post-2020 pop culture collectible ever gonna be "worth" anything again? :b
Yes it will. But it just won't be what you think it's going to be. Whoever thought that people would be paying over $1,000 for old T-shirts from the 1980s and even the 1990s. But nobody saved them. We all wore them and then threw them out..
Do you think the advent of youtube hype channels has added additional fuel to stage 3 collectibles ie " top 10 rare nes/snes/genesis" etc videos
This is not gym fresh shawn, this is professor shawn
Where can you find more info about the lifecycle of collectibles? Are there any books, papers etc?
I mention books to read in some of my videos. More recommendations to come…
You are the Goat
Sean, you need a bigger marker.
Does this also apply to sports cards? I feel like that's more of an established market.
Vintage sports cards ARE established. Modern era sports cards are extremely speculative.
@@ReservedInvestments would you say high end modern sports cards of GOATS would also fall into the speculative bubble?
Like your work. If you don't do a sequel I'm unsubscribing
So basically you are telling me not to do a sequel then…😂
please do a sequel
Do you collect Skylanders figures? What do you think of them?
Not a fan...
Is there a reasonable scenario where the Timmys, Kimmys but NOT the poindexters make their mistakes?
17:20 is the caveat missed by many in the comic "investor" community. Watching a movie on a tablet or reading on comixology is NOT the same connection to the product as walking into a drug store and buying a comic book.
(And GS X-Men 1, Hulk 181, ASM 300 are NOT scarce assets, even in high grade... double strike!)
So what you are telling me is that my beanie babies aren't going to make me a millionaire?
This is the cycle graded sports cards meatballs should have listened to their beanie baby collecting grandma.
yep sports cards are one big dumpster fire
Everybody fomo in stage 3 lol. Chrono trigger in box for $1000? I GOTTA BUY IT NOW BEFORE IT'S 1500
Sardines are for trading, not eating.
did you ever do a sequel?
Not as of yet, no…still considering it…
@@ReservedInvestments S&P 500 and soon on are good for people who live in the developed world but in the third world with all the corruption its limited as to what we can invest into.
imagine I put 30k into my pension and 30 years later its worth less than 33k!
The only way you can invest in anything that could keep up with inflation is commodities and/or collectables and properties or start a business
The last two is out of my league at my age(49) and income level so all I got is collectables
Wish I saw videos like this one in 2020 as I went 100% into to collectables instead of your coins...at the time didn't realize it was so easy to get into
You think beanie babies ever making come back
buy an actual whiteboard. they are cheap.
I'd love to have him as my teacher, but by god as a neighbor he would need to be... silenced.
Excellent information 🔥🔥
Really excellent video.