Collectible Speculation: Why & How Collectible Companies Screw Over their Biggest Fans for Profit!
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- Опубліковано 4 лют 2025
- Recorded at 2 AM EST somewhere in a cozy basement office outside of Philadelphia....because I'm crazy...Welcome back to Reserved Investments, the ONLY collectibles finance channel devoted to the entire antiques and collectibles trade! Today's video takes a deep dive into understanding why investing in modern era collectibles over the long term is a fool's game...we begin with a look at the Beanie Baby bubble and also discuss the current market dynamics for Lego, Funko Pops, and Limited Run Games...
Email for Antique/Collectible Consulting Services: ReservedInvestments@gmail.com
Patreon: / reservedinvestments
Did you know? This was originally planned as a one hour video, but due to time constraints was cut to under twenty minutes...
Here is on the best short videos on the Beanie Baby craze:
• Bankrupt By Beanies
** Videos are not intended to provide direct investment advice. Please work with a registered and licensed financial advisor....not a dude filming videos at 2 AM EST in his basement office. **
Again, a great informative and entirely correct video. Anyone interested in modern collectibles really, really needs to understand the manufacturing / release cycle of items made specifically for collecting. Force the young folk in your life to watch it! 🙂
I appreciate you keeping me grounded!
When you brought up Funko's.....I nearly choked on my beer I was laughing so fucking hard.
"Timmy in Amiibo form!" :D love it...
Love this deep dive into mass produced scarcity. Still sad my childhood beanie babies never bought me a house though, haha
It’s great to finally hear your explanation as the WHY you feel Funko pops are the next Beanie Babies. For me personally, I’ve enjoyed collecting them over the years, and although I never saw them as an investment, it was cool seeing certain ones go up in value.
By 2020 though, I did hit a breaking point, where I had too many Funko pops and needed to downsize. I had about 900 pops at the peak and now down to a bit over 400 pops. Selling them went smooth at first, but this past year has been the most difficult year of letting them go. Many pops, even ones that I thought were “rare”, sold well below retail price.
Even places like Frank and Sons are really not even buying pops anymore, if they are, it’s pennies on the dollar.
i've seen people with entire walls of funko pops in their houses... it's so cringe.
They don't even grade Funko Pops. There are no 9.8 pops. You know you are collecting junk when nobody even grades it.
Sobriety is a hard road. Welcome to it.....
I love his S & P advice. Really a so much better strategy than buying Funkos and other collectibles.
Rule of 72
yea just a lot slower. Im 30 years ahead of where id be if i invested in the S&P instead
How Funko has not imploded yet is beyond me.
clowns are still buying them thats why
Its slowly happening.
With multiple kids and a spouse who loves them, my house is overrun with plastic.
@@TheSillySils
I don’t see how they are seen as collectibles. I always thought they were just toys.
It's beanie babies all over again
been with this guy since day 1, sold all my collectibles, took the money put it into an S and P index 500 fund and a US Global Index Fund, top them up each month and have not looked back and will not look back in twenty years time when i retire. I was a Timmy, now I am a Sean!!
This was very eye opening, thank you
🙏
Fantastic lesson in the markets of mass produced scarcity. I truly hope the wannabe "investors" heed your words. Im not confident though 😂
I think this is one of your best videos. Very informative, love the deep dive and advice!
Well, that was one highly educational video - glad I tuned into the channel -came over from when you were a guest on Swaggs show - will be tuning in in the future, you are definitely educating the public - thanks for what you’re doing
Very helpful, thanks for your efforts
Very interesting video! I have limited knowledge of Beanie Babies I must be honest - so it is interesting to learn more about what they were all about and how the bubble eventually burst. I am not a collector by any definition - but to me Lego is a bit of a unique proposition. What differentiates Lego from something like Funko pops is that there is still a big emphasis on marketing the Lego products for kids. Walk into any toy shop and you will see kids holding Lego sets and looking super excited to get home to start building and playing with them. I haven't ever seen kids in toy stores over here in South Africa holding Funko Pops and looking super exited to play with them at home.
Great video.
The FOMO struggle is real.....it's like a drug addiction.
I get hooked on some these LRG SE releases because I don't want to end up paying double on the secondary market. But buy these just have in my own personal collection with no intention of reselling.
I remember Beanie Babis from the 90´s and I am from Austria, you may ask why? My pipe collecting Buddy in NY dealed with them, maybe you know him? Sam Barnett was his name, he died years ago. I think he was one of the first guys who dealed in Beanies.
Wow, literally just described how MtG has been releasing mass products, and branching into different IPs.
Now I get why.
Excellent financial analysis here. Can you also dive into some modern day contagions like Squishmallows?
Possibly, yes.
Thank you, informative as always!
Regards from South Africa
Great video. Love having the actual numbers to reference.
I learn so much from these videos. It has taken awhile for me to really grasp it though.
You forgot 5 important names of the first generation:
Rip (Me off)
Shit (The Bed)
Fuk (Me over)
Con (the Man)
Screw (The pooch)
Rumor has it, that all 5 of these are quite rare.
Bottom line: Warner was a genius frankly. Outstanding vid Shawn...loved the history.
Agree -"manufactured collectability" virtually NEVER yields any value over the long term. Stay with an Index fund folks...I did, and it paid off my son's education (college) and will be funding my retirement... Yes, it's boring..but it pays off in the long run...
Very nice perspective and analysis. Makes ya think! Always enjoy the content.
Great video. Thanks for the realism.
Beanie Baby bubble burst is best tongue twister
You have no idea…lol. I had to say it slow while recording the video. 😂
gotta catch em all(the Timmy)
Every time Shaun mentions Beanie Babies, I have a sudden urge to actually buy one on eBay. Never owned one of the critters and I remember the 1990s craze.
Great video, as always! Thanks!
I find it strange that these companies kill their own golden goose. They clearly don't understand that part of the joy of collecting is that they're a finite set one can wrap their mind around. Once a collection grows too massive for a single person to ever hope to complete (recent examples being Funko Pops and Magic: The Gathering) even the most die-hard collectors lose interest rapidly.
GREAT VIDEO
Ever since my teenage Timmy dreams were shattered in the junk wax era of sports cards, I have made a conscious effort to distinguish between what I collect and what I invest in. I love Lego but I wince whenever I see someone post how they're investing in a particular set. And I say that as someone with a Bricklink store (which is really just an extension of my hobby. I'm not relying on it for income).
So that’s the reason why Upper Deck has a bajillion product lines of hockey cards while O-Pee-Chee only had one. O-Pee-Chee was using the hockey cards to sell candy; Upper Deck is using the hockey cards to sell more hockey cards.
What are your views on WhatNot? I see a lot of sellers on there are getting killed
Shawn is the Goat 🐐
Lego intrigues me. While there's definitely "investors" going crazy there's also a lot of adult hobbyists and sellers of loose bricks/sets for parts. Doesn't that cloud the picture? The people who build MOCs and do the conventions consume a ton of product and create a secondary economy based on organic demand right? I wonder how much is organic and how much is investors. You'd need a warehouse to invest in sealed product. Seems like more trouble than its worth. The complexity of the lego market is fascinating to me.
Thank you for being REAL!!!!
Hoarding is so important to these booms. It keeps stock off the secondary market and keeps demand high for people wanting to get in. Then manufacturers make even more.
Thank you very much
Yet some Pokémon cards sets 5-10+ years out outperformed the s&p. I think it’s more deciding when to sell your collectables rather than avoid it at all cost. Also, one must judge whether something can last like Pokémon but bust like funko.
I agree that it is important to educate yourself in spotting these trends in collectables.
Always a fun listen.
If you pick and choose dates you do realize almost anything can outperform a S&P 500 index by that metric. Short term fluctuations and gains mean absolutely nothing.
@@ReservedInvestments that’s true, but what I’m saying is that some sets just straight up outperform for whatever reason. I guess it’s like “is one willing to speculate on each set?” Well then they fall into your idea where if it doesn’t pan out they should have invested in S&P. But the average set increases 2-5% a year after out of print and still have buyers years out. Like anything in investments there’s a gamble but Pokémon TCG has proven itself a bit more than you give them credit for. But I totally understand where you are coming from generally in collectables.
I think what is missing is that there’s some value in the fun of the hunt in speculating on collectables as well.
Completely agree. Collecting for some is fun. One thing, though, is that we have to separate fads from collecting. Plus, add inflation. For example, I bought a set of 6 funko pops Batman,Robin, Riddler, Batgirl, Joker,and Penguin. All six were $34.99. That's $6 per pop, and many are vaulted. Every new movie, cartoon, pretty much anything new is going to have a new funko pop. Today retail is $12.99. Beannie babies were pretty much stuffed animals. I didn't understand why people bought them.
However, you should be honest. You bring up Pokémon at the beginning, but go into other products.
They said the same about Spawn #1 comic. There were so many copies, but now it sells for $25. It's not much, but when you paid $1.95. Read it and enjoyed it. That's not a bad return. The flip side, too, is that it's nothing to spend $25 in today's market. You have to look at what you paid and what it's worth today with inflation.
Your second paragraph’s opening statement contradicts your first.
@ReservedInvestments no it doesn't. I agree with you about Beannie Babies. Which was a fad. Comes and go.
Your opening statement was about Pokémon that went into Beannie Babies. A fad versus a collectible. You're using an S&P index fund. Take the average Pokémon return across the board. A better way to explain it would be if someone bought Apple stock, let's say. That's just helping your argument. You wouldn't say if you bought Circuit City stock or Sears stock, "you would have this much." The other issue is when do you need the money. In 2008, that fund would've tanked. A person who is retired and needs to withdraw from that fund was screwed in 2008. People were crying in my office. You would've been better to buy gold at $362 in 1993. In 2008, it was $872. Now it's $2021. Its all depends on where you're at in the cycle and when you need the money. Heck, even silver would've been good at $4.31 in 2008 $14.
It doesn’t matter. Pokemon uses the same tactics.
@ReservedInvestments see any Beanie babies for sake in stores? No, it's a fad. See any Pokémon? Sure do. You're trying to compare apples and oranges by saying it's a fruit.
Sure. It’s me, I’m the problem. 😳
I’m not watching all of that 🔥🔥
jk very interesting case study. Almost nothing can outperform the S&P longterm. Collectibles should be collected because you like them, or if you are planning on investing short term or flipping.
The full uncut version of this video is about an hour long. Lol.
great video. i agree with you across the board that the S&P/Money Market are the best investment vehicle long term (and in addition to the growth, you have the wonderful advantage of liquidity and not having to make it a part/full time job selling your sh/t). I do want to expand on LRG a little... for the record, i dont collect LRG, i buy a handful every year that i like, BUT, their value today isn't indicative of future growth. I have been collecting video games for over 20 years and i've seen these markets ebb and flow. My overral collection is huge, easily 3k games, it is my hobby, not retirement plan, although considering my cost of entry it'll be a nice sale one day if my kids dont want to keep them.
Anyway, the prices of the switch releases won't really show their colors until maybe 10 years after the switch is dead. then you will have the set and subset collectors come in and try to do crazy sh/t like collect the full set (this is the biggest driver of value of terrible games that are rare, every console has them, $100-300 games that are total trash and therefore rare since no one bought them). Now, does that make these games good investment? hell no. but it should be noted that people will come back to the Switch library 8-10 years after it's demise and begin collecting for it much more than they are today. someone might want to get all the LRG games, or all the RPGs (this is a common one), or all the "good games", and that will really ramp up values. still dont recommend them as investments, but if anyone is a collector (as a hobby), it's definitely a good idea to get the games you want in your collection as they're being released by LRG, cause they'll never be cheaper.
Thank you for the lesson Shawn! My teenage son keeps talking up sneakers...Is that basically the same, or is the "sneakers market more akin to the coin market? Thanks again!
Sneakers are very speculative and not on par with rare coins. Far from it.
The worst thing about collecting sneakers, is that NIKE uses corrosive glue that will causes shoes to start falling apart even if never used. I've seen videos of new old stock NIKE shoes simply crumbling to pieces when taken out of the boxes 10 or 15 years later.
you should invest in a dry erase board, then you wont need to make trips to the store to buy posterboard. i recommend a limited edition white board.
Funko pops are the new beanie baby
And to think one company is now selling signed Funkp pop figures. This never seems to end but morphs into a new arena of speculation.
My local pawn shops are filled with Star Wars and Marvel figurines, and Funko Pops. All boxed and not played with. It suggests two things for me: adults are buying these things with a hope of making big bucks in the future, and such collecting is the domain of poor people. Who sells anything at a pawn shop unless they are desperate for money and have shocking credit?
Or a bunch of junkies stolen em and sold.
collecting =/ speculating for profit. i collect many things, i dont do it cause i think anything will be a good flip, i collect because i want to *own* the item. Any collecting hobby with a large percentage of speculators is doomed to crash.
I'm surprised that there aren't any graded beanie babies. I bet people would buy a 9.8 beanie baby.
I will say this about Funco pops. At least people weren't mugging the delivery drivers taking them to the stores unlike the beanie babies. But i have said for years and NO ONE would believe me when i'd compare them to the beanie baby fad.
Seems to me a quick flip is best with these things. Maybe you dont get the high but hey if you can make quick buck you should be happy.
Lego has definitely gotten insane with there prices on large piece sets. But there is still a demand for mid range sets and I have been buying and selling for the past 10 years with an average return of 110 percent . The key with Lego is to be a casual investor and not rely on it as a primary source of income . That’s the problem because you can’t hold these for less than a year in retirement. You need to hold for a 18 to 24 months to get the returns that I have received.
Some of the comments here demonstrate why these companies won’t stop their practices any time soon.
Good video, but at the end of the day, these same companies do not care about their own brand too. Many other collectable hobbies are no different than toys. Rolex for example holds back supply, discontinues old models and movements and when you get a service, they don't give you the old parts you paid for (originally) back. Now Rolex are going retail buying Bucherer because they are afraid of ending up like everyone else and want to protect the brand their image to no go down the toilet. Have to respect that.
So from I've learned, is now the time to sell lego the lego I have "into the hype"? Or should I wait longer?
Thanks a ton, I don't feel like I have a target on my wallet as much.
Are you able to explain what an S&P 500 index fund is and how it works?
An index fund is a stock composed of other stocks. The S&P 500 is composed of the 500 largest companies in America. It is reweighed over time, but generally the turnover rate of stocks is less than that of a mutual fund. The average return of the S&P is generally used as a reference for how good the returns on an investment are. The S&P has returned on average 8-10% year over year.
@@Mactakun Thank you!
@@Mactakun I'm from Australia so perhaps that's why I have not heard of it before but I am also a Timmy.
@@Kay13Jay Now you are a little less of a Timmy
Facts are for me personally i would be behind 30+ years if i took this advice and invested in the S&P or other safer mutual funds only. I do agree for the average person it is best for them to mindlessly invest in a simple safe fund. Those who use their brains will outpace the S&P if they manage their risk.
If this was true, you’d be on par with Warren Buffett.
LEGO isn't really comparable. The majority of LEGO collectors are not buying them for the investment. They are buying them to build and display. Yes, there is a portion of people that buy it for the investment, but it's a much, much smaller portion than the portion buying to build and display. Also, demand in LEGO has increased not because of the investment potential, but because a) They piggyback on super popular licenses like Star Wars, Harry Potter, etc., b) A new generation of adults are hitting their 30s and 40s and can now afford LEGO, c) LEGO has increased their quality exponentially. Look at the amazing sets you can get now: Bowser, Rivendell, NES, Atari, Hulkbuster, etc. etc. No one would have dreamt of sets like these 20 years ago. Now you combine all these factors with the fact that most sets usually only have a limited run of about 2 years, and that's where the investment potential comes in. If you're a collector that couldn't afford a set, or you're a new collector, and you want a set that retired 5 years ago, you have to pay a premium. I'm a huge LEGO collector, but I've never sold a set and never plan to. If the value goes up, cool. My heirs will be able to make a little money selling them. That's not why I buy LEGO though. I buy them because they are fun and I love building and displaying them. That's the majority of the market, not investors. Bean Babies, Funkos, etc. are for display only. People buy them specifically to COLLECT them. Most people don't buy LEGO specifically to collect LEGO.
But I can't stop buying Magic: The Gathering.... I want them all!
Lego is a huge market and not just by children but millions of adult collectors and builders around the world. Lego has become a pice of art in many aspects. I don’t see beanie or funko pops on the same level as legos.
No one is saying it’s the same.
The Bear king 🐻 put it all on Microsoft and gold right? 😂
We sell beanie babies still 6.99 or 24.99 for the big ones.
$5.99 each on the Ty website.
Agree overall but do you think there's something in Lego increasing their number of high piece number sets because their demographic of people who enjoy Lego is changing as adults become less embarrassed about it?
Yes. Investing in vintage, distressed assets in the collectible markets, that still has a future is the only way to go. Right now, sealed games, and high end cibs are fairly distressed, and game collecting isn't going anywhere. All of this hoarding new items, whether it be games, board games, amiibos, legos, pops etc, is just foolish. It's a trend that has caught fire, and anyone buying and grading this nonsense is going to lose money if they are not able to flip it now. I haven't, and won't spend a penny on any of it.
Just wait till the Limited run games start flooding the market in a few years once people lose interest in the fad. And people want to cash out. My guess is you will find out there not so "limited"
@@americanbadass88 and all mint.
Ding ding ding
.a timmy doorbell
What about in addition to ETFs one buys a mix of individual stocks? Like blue chip dividend payers and the magnificent 7 which are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. To hold for the long term. With shifting to more dividend payers as you get older?
With those companies ask things like can they keep up? Will they produce some new market segment? Will civil war in china continue? And what is the actual margin for car company?
New magic cards seem like a poor investment.
Old, reserved list magic cards seem like there is organic scarcity and demand. What do you think?
Correct!
What do you think tcg junk wax products right now. They are too many tcg games and even magic gathering prices are collapsing due too many products. I heard tcg junk wax era is happening right now?
I do believe that certain CCG’s are close to being oversaturated and near a similar period as the junk wax era of sports cards.
Every year they say "Double it."
Not to be a Timmie, Kimmie, or a Pointdexter... but these collector items CAN easily outstrip S&P funds in the short term... but they are VERY volatile, are (as you rightly point out) often destined to fail in the long term, and could indeed fail in the short-term at any point. The trick is timing the market, knowing your market, not being greedy on price, having the customer-base to sell into, responding to signs given out by the creator of these products (and by the consumer), and seeing when the writing is on the wall. Far too risky a strategy to invest too much money into - unless you like high-stakes gambling. The tales of woes are many (the PEZ bloke, the bloke who spent his family's entire fortune on Beanie Babies, etc.). Be prepared to get slapped in the face with a stale doughnuts, or have a house full of these 'priceless' possessions. 🙂
Anyway, I agree with your sentiments in this upload, Shawn. 👍
Whatever happened to toys just being toys? I hate resellers (scalpers) in all markets.I never understood the whole Funko Pop craze.
hasbro just did this with gi joe classified started slow now there at over 100 in 3 years
I plan to do a video on Haslab and similar projects soon. Hasbro uses a lot of mass produced scarcity in their collector products.
Manufacturers produce and sell to primary users, and do not care about the resale market. They have no reason to consider a secondary market unless it can directly increase sales now. People get caught in the hype and forget this.
Are you saying s&p is invulnerable to complete collapse and im talking literal zero
For an S&P 500 index fund to go to absolute zero, every single company in the index has to go to zero. That’s not a likely scenario in almost any circumstance.
So is the premise of this video anything manufactured in modern times is not in any way collectable…. it sounds like that as manufacturerers make sure of that by how they release product… so at what date in time I assume way back are collectables are real thing to collect ? Do you have to go back 20 years ? 50 years ? 100 years ? where is that break point of a collectable to keep long term vs the manufacture taking advantage in your opinion ?
IMO, it's not about age or how many years back. My main takeaway is that it's not really "rare" as rarity only comes into play if there is a constant demand for a product. Thus, always be mindful of this when you are looking at deals.
You can collect how you want, just don't buy to resell without understanding how demand for the item works.
❤
Was he a genius though? Was his intent to do a 5/6 year rise and burn a brand and walk away with the cash? If beanie babies was managed more tightly could they still hold value today? Does the short sighted brand manager who is focused on short term sales numbers a detriment to the long term viability of a brand or is that the playbook, build a brand, squeeze the most money and then burn it to the ground? So many questions....
They still make them today! Check out Ty's website. You can order and buy all the new ones.
NONE of these fads are meant to hold value. I remember the craze back in the 90s and even as a teenager when these things came out. Even i was amazed when i would see grown people throw down over not getting a stupid stuffed toy.
Of course he is smart especially to scale back production at the end of the product lifecycle. This is a kind of game that they probably teach at university on marketing short term mass produced products. Those who buy a few beany babies and enjoy them, no harm done. Those who massively hoard and sit on them and don't sell into the hype are left with heavy bags.
SAY BEANIE BABY BUBBLE BURST 10 TIMES FAST
I tried. Lol. There’s a reason I say it slow in the video. 😂
@@ReservedInvestments I'm just a Poindexter Junior checking in!
Pokemon is the only card market holding strong and wwe
True. If you look at every kind of trading card sport and non-sport Wrestling, Pokemon, and Star Wars are the only ones staying flat to positive.
Beanie baby will make a comeback soon it can’t go down forever. You can easily buy 100 beanie babies for 20 bucks. When beanie babies comeback. You will be able sell 100 dollars each of beanie babies. You will make a lot of money in the future
Beanie babies will not make a come back! Don't waste your money!
The kids that grew up on Beanie Babies are hitting their mid 30s. They've hit peak nostalgia time and are not buying like they did with N64, GameCube, Pokemon.
@@custum18 beanie babies have a new release stuff. It still alive. Beanie babies just need one hits it will make a comeback.
Shawn bitcoin just hit 40k dollars today. Bitcoin was 15k dollars from last year. You almost tripled your money in Bitcoin
😂 If you cherry pick the time frame any investment seems like a home run.
@@ReservedInvestments remember Bitcoin etf will getting approved next year. Blockrock and big companies are investing Bitcoin. Bitcoin will have a great next year. It will hit 100k dollars soon. I bought bitcoin was dead and waiting sell bitcoin at the profit in 2025. The fomo haven’t started yet.
By the way Bitcoin just 41k today it keeps going up.
S&P 500? id rather invest in bitcoin or ethereum to be honest.
Yes, makes sense to prefer a fugazi currency with no underlying value that you hope to sell for more to the next schmuck.
😂
yup couldve been retired twice, all of us coulda been but we all have that arrogant "it cant be real" attitude that holds us back, RI himself even said he made money off the beanie baby boom..sometimes we have too much pride@@davidschelkens9481
@@davidschelkens9481 by the way making comeback 44k dollars or higher. If you buy Bitcoin last year at 15k. You almost triple your money in one year. Sp 500 didn’t double in one year. I guess bitcoin went up 500 percent in one year compare sp500 only went 5 percent today