I normally am tentative in completely siding with Niall, but I think he's spot on here. This feels like a particularly dark time, with further darkness ahead.
GoodFellows is great, really like all these guys, read most of Niall's books, but there's something about H .R. McMaster's enthusiasm that's infectious.
NIall is totally right (near 54:00) that the war has to end ASAP because none of the possible outcomes, including those discussed in the video, are too destructive and dangerous.
We'll know that America is serious about China when we have 100% tariffs, zero trade deficits, capital controls, currency manipulation, government monopsony price negotiation - i.e. when we implement on them everything they've implemented on us. In the meantime we're just bleeding out.
It's obvious Russia never intended to conquer all of Ukraine. With 150,000 troops, the most they could have hoped for was taking Ukraine east of the Dnieper, but probably not even that much.
Excellent conversations from many different prospective’s. My prospective is, history shows that human hearts desire for freedom overcomes oppression, and the Lord reigns.
2015's paper by Pottinger (and others of course), still one of the best written piece of defence doctrine. Here, again, he confirms how consistent and strategically competent he is. A clarity of thought which would benefit NATO right now. How about putting Pottinger in the NATO's Secretary seat? Jens Stoltenberg's term is coming to a natural end of term presently. If Nato wants to mean something, the West need somebody in Brussels to keep both allies and especially the Russians and their allies on their toes. See: Michael T. Flynn; Captain Matt Pottinger; Paul D. Batchelor (January 2010). "Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan" (PDF). Center for a New American Security. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 November 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
It seems obvious that in not honoring financial transactions above political considerations that the USA cedes it's position as world currency. Others with different or vulnerable politics CANNOT be subject to a trust system that can be altered unilaterally. They must work in an alternate one that cannot be confiscated. The USA willingness to break trust ends Bretton Woods. We now have a dual competing system. Was it worth it?
I know this is a tough sell in a group of experts, but I still believe the best Cold War ideological struggle would be, between Authoritarian Bureaucracy (like China or Russia) and Liberty-minded Democracy. "How do we harness expertise in the service of a free people?" could be the critical question. General McMaster, could you help me out here? That basically describes what the civilian-controlled (citizen-controlled) US military is designed to do, at its best.
Putin's Syrian tactics worked in Syria, and his Chechnyan tactics worked in Chechnya, because in those places he was not significantly opposed by the West militarily. That is not the case in Ukraine. The West is pouring a great deal of military equipment into Ukraine. It is an unfortunate comparison, but the U.S. also poured a great deal of military equipment into Afghanistan, where Russia's Afghanistan tactics ultimately failed.
Korea 1950, Guatemala 1954, Indonesia 1958, Cuba 1961, Vietnam 1961, Congo 1964, Laos 1964, Brasil 1964, Dominican Republic 1965, Greece 1967, Argentina 1976, Nicaragua 1981, Grenada 1984, Philippines 1989, Panama 1989, Iraq 1991 and 2003, Republic of Srpska 1995, Sudan 1998, Yugoslavia 1999, Afganistan 2001, Yemen 2002, Somalia 2006, Libya 2011, Syria 2011- ALL WE ARE SAYING IS GIVE PEACE A CHANCE!
John Cochrane says that disengaging from China is damaging to the United States. Is disengagement more or less damaging than our continued engagement? He's an economist. What are the dismal numbers in that comparison?
One month--7-9 thousand dead Russian Soldiers--another 15 thousand injured. Losing 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers without a major draft to fill out those units is a big problem for Russia.
Trying to save Ukraine does not equate to fighting for or saving the West. Ukraine may want to join the west, but geographically Russia will not allow it to happen for security concerns. We need to recognize this reality.
Like many GF sessions, much food for thought. Short war not long, with out our troops and overt involvement, supporting allies and countries with similar values. Faster action against enemies seen and unseen. Tough assignment but we can do it.
The Good Fellows should compare and contrast the personalities and war motives of Truman with those of Putin to assess the probability of Putin employing nuclear weapons. And no HR, we don't want Russia to fail. We want them to achieve their security concerns. The humanitarian catastrophe happening was instigated by NATO expansion and the indifference of the US to Russia's concerns.
It seems to me that Churchill was disingenuous but you can excuse him as being the first to have this approach and it was for the greater good. Maybe if we go back in history there were other similar events. So Stalin was OK as an ally while they were fighting the Nazi but as soon as the war was concluded, Stalin suddenly becames a dictator as if he wasn't one before. And again history repeats itself. It is America that facilitated China becoming strong pumping it with its soon after their cultural revolution, so now that it has become so it is a big surprise! History repeats itself and nobody learns from it ever! I am beyond the point of caring as it seems the greater good does not exist anyway and none of the politicians, past or present are capable of it, meanwhile the rest of us are pawns in an epic Greek tragedy.
At this moment I think America still has that capability to do that,?yes you may suffer a period of time from the decoupling I. am talking about at least supply chains especially strategic supply chains decoupling , in this aspect, that’s something very critical that help china continue growing in full scale snd even outplay America . Economic growth and interests are luring and tempting but the consequence is helping an enemy stringer!
Great discussion! The comment that hit me is “the next bad thing that happens will hit a very fragile world”. Nobody mentioned the climate catastrophe, which is hitting many individual families throughput the world, like me, very hard. We need to get serious about addressing it, as it will lead to much larger conflicts than Ukraine.
It seems to me correct to say that Xi and Putin will support each other, and I think China looks at Russia invading Ukraine (with Russia never having acknowledged Ukraine having a right to exist as a separate nation) as a clear example of what China can expect with regard to Taiwan. In a sense, Russia taking this action is in effect a pilot project or trial example for Xi and China. Losing Ukraine is one thing; losing Taiwan to China the way Hong Kong has already been lost is going to be something the west will need to stop, even with force if required.
What would it take to provide Australia, Japan, and Taiwan with the capability to sweep the ocean clear of any Chinese invasion fleet? People have been talking for years about how vulnerable surface fleets are. Can't these countries use that to their advantage, in this situation?
id guess they have a lot of shore to ship weapons. Id think it would be very challenging to attack a prepared and defended island. The US didnt want to do so in ww2. but the chinese would probably try to lay siege to taiwan and dare others to try to break it.
One serious talk here by some individuals that are clued in. I usually throw my 2 cents in but this is a problem I will leave to the pros. Just be ready if Putin does go Nuclear or uses chemical weapons.
I know I am naive, but here is my attempt to participate in this discussion. Why, as an American, should I care if China takes over Taiwan? They aren't going to kill Americans, are they? Perhaps the idea is that any bolstering of the Chinese state threatens America in a myriad of ways: financial, cyber, logistical? ... I had a Chinese friend who told me Chinese people were so tired of being poor that wealth was now very important to them - at the expense of other values. Scary thought. This made me realize how we have incompatible values with them.
Back in 2020 when the pandemic was beginning and the riots started I predicted this decade would be like the 60's in terms of one bad thing happening after another.
The best thing about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is that China is likely not to invade Taiwan without a much better strength & pretext. The defensive capacity of a irregular force is much stronger than thought earlier due to urban warfare and effective inexpensive weapons. The economic isolation from committing similar atrocities are now stark and powerful. China must include them in a post invasion economic order calculus. Finding they simply can no longer trade with 70% of the world and exclusion from all high tech will set back their development plan decades. This is too high a cost to undertake an invasion. Thirdly Soviet derivative weapons are demonstrated inferior to Western weaponry at almost all levels. They need to test their systems in a series of proxy wars to assess if they can invade and subdue Taiwan.
I normally am tentative in completely siding with Niall, but I think he's spot on here. This feels like a particularly dark time, with further darkness ahead.
These conversations from the Hoover Institution are about the only thing keeping some of us sane these days. Thank you.
HR McMaster for prez in 2024!!!
Always a pleasure to listen to these gentlemen.
GoodFellows is great, really like all these guys, read most of Niall's books, but there's something about H .R. McMaster's enthusiasm that's infectious.
Completely agree. When H.R lets rip I cannot look away. He doesn’t do it often but it’s worth watching.
Thank you. Not being a military or foreign policy professional, I learned eye-opening things during this podcast.
NIall is totally right (near 54:00) that the war has to end ASAP because none of the possible outcomes, including those discussed in the video, are too destructive and dangerous.
Very enlightening discussion!
"That's What Xi Said" would have been stellar!
We'll know that America is serious about China when we have 100% tariffs, zero trade deficits, capital controls, currency manipulation, government monopsony price negotiation - i.e. when we implement on them everything they've implemented on us. In the meantime we're just bleeding out.
This discussion by you good fellows was just excellent.
I can see how McMaster would be an effective and motivating combat leader.
Excellent conversation, as usual, "fellows". HR, nice job as facilitator. I'm grateful for this podcast.
It's obvious Russia never intended to conquer all of Ukraine. With 150,000 troops, the most they could have hoped for was taking Ukraine east of the Dnieper, but probably not even that much.
Excellent discussion. Thank you!!
Thks for the great insights from all of you and the knowledge!
These guys are great! Exceptional well thought out views!
Excellent conversations from many different prospective’s. My prospective is, history shows that human hearts desire for freedom overcomes oppression, and the Lord reigns.
A really great episode. Well done guys
We need these guys making US policy.
Watching from Melbourne, Australia - love this show.
2015's paper by Pottinger (and others of course), still one of the best written piece of defence doctrine. Here, again, he confirms how consistent and strategically competent he is. A clarity of thought which would benefit NATO right now.
How about putting Pottinger in the NATO's Secretary seat?
Jens Stoltenberg's term is coming to a natural end of term presently. If Nato wants to mean something, the West need somebody in Brussels to keep both allies and especially the Russians and their allies on their toes.
See:
Michael T. Flynn; Captain Matt Pottinger; Paul D. Batchelor (January 2010). "Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan" (PDF). Center for a New American Security. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 November 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
Great analysis, thank you!
Always great to watch and listen to your ideas
I love the humor in the title.
War is Overridden
Deal agreed
Words honored
SIGNED
H.R. McMaster is the man!
Great conversation.....now we'll see if you're correct.
It seems obvious that in not honoring financial transactions above political considerations that the USA cedes it's position as world currency.
Others with different or vulnerable politics CANNOT be subject to a trust system that can be altered unilaterally. They must work in an alternate one that cannot be confiscated.
The USA willingness to break trust ends Bretton Woods. We now have a dual competing system. Was it worth it?
Best episode yet!
I know this is a tough sell in a group of experts, but I still believe the best Cold War ideological struggle would be, between Authoritarian Bureaucracy (like China or Russia) and Liberty-minded Democracy.
"How do we harness expertise in the service of a free people?" could be the critical question. General McMaster, could you help me out here? That basically describes what the civilian-controlled (citizen-controlled) US military is designed to do, at its best.
HR is a great MC
Putin's Syrian tactics worked in Syria, and his Chechnyan tactics worked in Chechnya, because in those places he was not significantly opposed by the West militarily. That is not the case in Ukraine. The West is pouring a great deal of military equipment into Ukraine. It is an unfortunate comparison, but the U.S. also poured a great deal of military equipment into Afghanistan, where Russia's Afghanistan tactics ultimately failed.
Love this show,
Always great to watch and listen to your ideas. Thanks so much for this podcast.
Please keep it going. Thank you, guys.
Korea 1950, Guatemala 1954, Indonesia 1958, Cuba 1961, Vietnam 1961, Congo 1964, Laos 1964, Brasil 1964, Dominican Republic 1965, Greece 1967, Argentina 1976, Nicaragua 1981, Grenada 1984, Philippines 1989, Panama 1989, Iraq 1991 and 2003, Republic of Srpska 1995, Sudan 1998, Yugoslavia 1999, Afganistan 2001, Yemen 2002, Somalia 2006, Libya 2011, Syria 2011- ALL WE ARE SAYING IS GIVE PEACE A CHANCE!
Excellent
That was real quality. Many different ideas.
Great discussion as usual….
America is torn apart at home
Excellent discussion. A friend sent me the link.
Good fellas, another paradigm shift is on, bigger!
: D
It's too late for Congress to wake up now
excellent
Without question one of the best episodes to date. If you had extended to two hours if would have been amazing. Great content. Thank you!!
Bye petro $.... bye :)
John Cochrane says that disengaging from China is damaging to the United States. Is disengagement more or less damaging than our continued engagement? He's an economist. What are the dismal numbers in that comparison?
Matt Pottinger was a guest that added much to the panel and enriched the conversation. Thanks for the video!
One month--7-9 thousand dead Russian Soldiers--another 15 thousand injured. Losing 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers without a major draft to fill out those units is a big problem for Russia.
Trying to save Ukraine does not equate to fighting for or saving the West. Ukraine may want to join the west, but geographically Russia will not allow it to happen for security concerns. We need to recognize this reality.
Like many GF sessions, much food for thought. Short war not long, with out our troops and overt involvement, supporting allies and countries with similar values. Faster action against enemies seen and unseen. Tough assignment but we can do it.
The Good Fellows should compare and contrast the personalities and war motives of Truman with those of Putin to assess the probability of Putin employing nuclear weapons. And no HR, we don't want Russia to fail. We want them to achieve their security concerns. The humanitarian catastrophe happening was instigated by NATO expansion and the indifference of the US to Russia's concerns.
It seems to me that Churchill was disingenuous but you can excuse him as being the first to have this approach and it was for the greater good. Maybe if we go back in history there were other similar events.
So Stalin was OK as an ally while they were fighting the Nazi but as soon as the war was concluded, Stalin suddenly becames a dictator as if he wasn't one before.
And again history repeats itself.
It is America that facilitated China becoming strong pumping it with its soon after their cultural revolution, so now that it has become so it is a big surprise!
History repeats itself and nobody learns from it ever!
I am beyond the point of caring as it seems the greater good does not exist anyway and none of the politicians, past or present are capable of it, meanwhile the rest of us are pawns in an epic Greek tragedy.
Cochrane has the better arguement,
Cochrane is the only one talking sense.
At this moment I think America still has that capability to do that,?yes you may suffer a period of time from the decoupling I. am talking about at least supply chains especially strategic supply chains decoupling , in this aspect, that’s something very critical that help china continue growing in full scale snd even outplay America . Economic growth and interests are luring and tempting but the consequence is helping an enemy stringer!
Interested in John's artwork.
Me too
Is there a way to dissuade Russia from “rubbing” Ukraine? Too much harm is being done to Ukrainian infrastructure and citizens
Great discussion! The comment that hit me is “the next bad thing that happens will hit a very fragile world”.
Nobody mentioned the climate catastrophe, which is hitting many individual families throughput the world, like me, very hard. We need to get serious about addressing it, as it will lead to much larger conflicts than Ukraine.
It seems to me correct to say that Xi and Putin will support each other, and I think China looks at Russia invading Ukraine (with Russia never having acknowledged Ukraine having a right to exist as a separate nation) as a clear example of what China can expect with regard to Taiwan. In a sense, Russia taking this action is in effect a pilot project or trial example for Xi and China. Losing Ukraine is one thing; losing Taiwan to China the way Hong Kong has already been lost is going to be something the west will need to stop, even with force if required.
Thats what XI said haha good one.
What would it take to provide Australia, Japan, and Taiwan with the capability to sweep the ocean clear of any Chinese invasion fleet?
People have been talking for years about how vulnerable surface fleets are. Can't these countries use that to their advantage, in this situation?
id guess they have a lot of shore to ship weapons. Id think it would be very challenging to attack a prepared and defended island. The US didnt want to do so in ww2. but the chinese would probably try to lay siege to taiwan and dare others to try to break it.
Has Francis Fukuyama joined you for an episode yet? I would love to see you all in conversation.
One serious talk here by some individuals that are clued in.
I usually throw my 2 cents in but this is a problem I will leave to the pros.
Just be ready if Putin does go Nuclear or uses chemical weapons.
Interesting discussion, thanks, however a lot of unappropriate laughter
“God only knows” ~ JBP
I know I am naive, but here is my attempt to participate in this discussion. Why, as an American, should I care if China takes over Taiwan? They aren't going to kill Americans, are they? Perhaps the idea is that any bolstering of the Chinese state threatens America in a myriad of ways: financial, cyber, logistical? ... I had a Chinese friend who told me Chinese people were so tired of being poor that wealth was now very important to them - at the expense of other values. Scary thought. This made me realize how we have incompatible values with them.
Best guesses..
Wow. Good grief.
I side with Niall and John, HR sounds naive here...
Back in 2020 when the pandemic was beginning and the riots started I predicted this decade would be like the 60's in terms of one bad thing happening after another.
The axis of predators remains. Deterence is provide by strong policy and stronger defense. It will be tested periodically as the predators seek prey.
Mcmaster talks a lot of military theory & propaganda but russia has the upper hand
The best thing about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is that China is likely not to invade Taiwan without a much better strength & pretext.
The defensive capacity of a irregular force is much stronger than thought earlier due to urban warfare and effective inexpensive weapons.
The economic isolation from committing similar atrocities are now stark and powerful. China must include them in a post invasion economic order calculus. Finding they simply can no longer trade with 70% of the world and exclusion from all high tech will set back their development plan decades. This is too high a cost to undertake an invasion.
Thirdly Soviet derivative weapons are demonstrated inferior to Western weaponry at almost all levels. They need to test their systems in a series of proxy wars to assess if they can invade and subdue Taiwan.
39:16 finally getting to the crunch
Please address the encirclement of Russia by NATO as the cause of the Ukraine war.
Thanks Gentleman
Niall Ferguson is too poetic when he calls COVID a plague. The plague is caused by the bacterium, Yersinia pestis. COVID was not a plague.
Ridiculous title lol