A Soviet Reunion: Michael McFaul On Putin | GoodFellows: Conversations From The Hoover Institution
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- Опубліковано 4 кві 2022
- Recorded on April 4, 2022
The war continues in Ukraine while peace talks go forward in Istanbul - the outcome of both endeavors anyone’s guess. Michael McFaul, a Hoover senior fellow and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster and John Cochrane to discuss the chances of a settlement that’s mutually beneficial to the two warring parties and the West, Vladimir Putin, plus the possibility of hostilities escalating.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more in this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
The most interesting, qualified and educational forum on internet. Thanks Hoover Institution for these amazing debates.
One hour is not enough for this show
Exactly what I was thinking!
A fascinating discussion, as always, that should be widely shared and listened to by millions.
Stanford campus is populated by men like this, professors of all stripes, equally as competent, educated, experienced, with firm opinions well based. My time there was endlessly fulfilling. Lunch lectures, grad student dissertation and theses discussions were ever mind expanding. Often, the profs are as bright or much brighter than oneself. Deference and appreciation to the presenters.
Kind regards from Poland! Great conversation.
Brilliant conversation. HR's line about Lithuania marching on St Petersburg had me slapping the table.
"We have failed to arm the Ukrainians in the last few years"
So it seems that if we don't want a slippery slope in Eastern Europe, whatever we may fear about "escalating in Ukraine" we need to be hustling to supply the Baltics, Poland, and Hungary with whatever we should have been supplying to Ukraine.
At the beginning of the invasion I applauded a calm steady approach. I now agree that ensuring the Ukraians finish the war as quickly as possible with conventional weapons is imperative and facing down the nuclear bluff/blackmail is the only option.
I like Niall's point: 'we haven't had enough analysis of what we do if Putin drops a tactical nuclear weapon on Lviv?'
Thank you! It`s so nice to see some competent westerners these days.
hahaha...
So enjoyed this. I look forward to the show each week.
Great episode. Loved HR’s monologue around 45 minutes in. Niall is right to be concerned about risk of tactical nuclear weapons, but ultimately we cannot sacrifice Ukraine or any country just because we are dealing with a nuclear power.
Iran and North Korea want to bomb just for this. To stop freedom in its tracks.
'you don't like it Russia, if we escalate? Maybe the black sea fleet goes away'😂
Imagine a world where our Presidential choices in 2024 are between HR and Niall
If you allow yourself to be bullied by a nuclear power, where does it end? That's the problem.
This might have been the best GoodFellows of all time. Great conversation. Slava Ukraini!
I learn so much from listening to the good fellows 👏
this was a really great segment. Thanks Bill and good fellows
The discourse is so enlightening. For once I found myself not nodding to everything Niall says. Thank you for this.
Excellent as always!! Thank you for such intelligent, well reasoned insights and discussion!
Another great episode! Thanks so much for bringing Ambassador McFaul on the show.
Thank you for helping us learn and stay informed guys these are really great
Great episode. It's a fine day when H.R. and Niall cross swords.
Thought provoking discussion. Thank you for content of such high calibre.
What great analysis! Bravo!
'We need meaningful hydrocarbon sanctions against Russia"
So.... how do we pressure Germany to re-open their nuclear plants, and in fact build a lot more of them?
Fascinating discussion - thanks again for yet another great hour of talk.
Thank you, gentlemen.
A pleasure to watch, listen and learn. Why can’t one of these guys run for PM.
Fascinating conversation. Thank you for feeding my brain.
So good. Better than usual guy, and it's usually great.
"The Black Sea Fleet could go away"
That would send an interesting message to Xi Jinping about any fleet he might build against Taiwan.
Very interesting. I'm with HR McMaster, as Putin responds to STRENGTH. Granted,I'm no expert but I listened to a very interesting commentary by the Oligarch that had been imprisoned for 10 yrs w/ an interview with Fareed Zakaria on CNN. He absolutely reiterated this point. Any "concessions" to Putin demonstrates not only weakness on our part BUT more importantly, that is an even bigger reason for Putin to escalate to WMD.
Great when there is a spirited discussion!
Such a great conversation! Thank you.
Great stuff. I 100% agree with HR and Niall and can't decide. I suppose this is why leaders portraits are painted and hung on walls for 100's of years. No easy choices here.
Amazes me how we talk about the oligarchs in Russia, when we have them here, and every country has them
OUTSTANDING QUALITY ANALYSIS.
McMaster is AWESOME. Hope he gets a chance to reenter USGOV. Absolute force of nature.
I keep seeing comments on Goodfellows videos about the 'lack of diversity' of the show. I would just like to refer anyone who might bring up that topic to the list of guest in the last year, which include Condoleezza Rice, Bari Weiss, Jay Bhattacharya, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Glenn Loury, and many others from a very wide range of perspectives. Perhaps a look at the history of the show would be beneficial prior to commenting about such matters.
I don't think Niall had any argument vs. HR. Also seemed like he tried to imply that HR's point of view was not "historically grounded," which sounded silly.
Completely agree with HR's hard-line stance. You can't just give in to adversaries when they wave a nuclear saber. In Putin's case, the threats showed desperation. His back is against the wall.
Thks for the knowledge that shared!
I'm glad that Niall is an historian and not a framer of policy.
Agree. This panic focused, hand wringing "what if" stuff is academic vudo. HR's position is dead on accurate. Who cares what Putin considers an acceptable conclusion?! Russia needs to be convinced that leaving Ukraine is the best course of action for them. How do you do that? Degrade and debilitate their ability to effectively carry on this invasion.
he is neither; he is in fact a revisionist cheerleader.
Excellent discussion! I hereby appoint Professor Ferguson as my Special Advisor to The White House. His critical question is not being answered and I am becoming increasingly concerned!
He DID NOT "use everything else he had" - no Sarin, no Thermobaric weapons - and you know it.
These discussions are great and I could listen for about 3 hours if they were that long!
The way the West is effectively looking on here is shameful. Here's my suggestion - which I haven't heard anywhere else, probably for obvious reasons! I think Nato should have fast-tracked Ukrainian membership as soon as they were invaded. How do you think that would have played out? Your move, Putin.
Love this show. Brilliant!!!
Regarding nuclear weapons, Russian FM Peskov reiterated the circumstances for their use. That would not include NATO getting directly involved in Ukraine, even confronting and fighting Russians directly. Of course, that doesn't rule out Putin is insane and might go against the strict rules governing their use. So, I suggest that instead of telling the Kremlin what we are not going to do, we tell them in advance what we are. For example, NATO could and should put peacekeepers in west Ukraine to secure its ground and sky (that actually would give Ukraine a chance to kick Russia out completely). If the Kremlin says clearly and unequivocally, that would result in the use of nuclear weapons, then obviously NATO wouldn't go in. However, Russia would then be exposed around the world and at home for being a completely out of control rogue state. That might be enough in itself to topple the Putin regime. The West has been making life far too easy for the Kremlin. Its time to turn up the heat.
i know you guys are all busy people but 1 hour with 4 brilliant people is far from enough otherwise thanks for the content im tuning in for the next episode for sure!
Phenomenal. One hour is too short. Long form is the future, and the future is here!!!!
Love these hoover vids, H.R. for Potus. a man with knowledge and morals.
Many thanks, good fellows. Hope for some more kindness in the world, by Dexter Gordon.
Great discussion.
Putin also attended Schwab’s “Young Global Leaders” school . It doesn’t make him Globalist though. Remember he’s a KGB guy . He knows how to obtain most accurate information about his enemies.
Thanks!
Heated!
Brilliant talk . Cheers 👍
@48:05 mcmaster gets animated. i agree with his take that a russia expeditionary attack against a NATO country would be weak, and likely beaten back, but mostly because their troops have no incentive for it. but they have a large navy, lots of submarines, and of course any incursion into russia would stir up the beehive. i like his suggestion of remove the off ramps and let putin crash into the wall of his own making
Great discussion gents! Thanks you!
Great episode lads!
Great passion HR
Love this show huge fan.
List of possible future guest suggestions:
Peter Zeihan
Michael Kofman
Dmitri Alperovitch
Richard Haass
Steven Pinker
Neil deGrasse Tyson
Catherine Austin Fits
Richard Haass would be amazing on this show
Yeah Peter Zeihan would be awesome. I wonder if he’d get along with HR.
Stephen Kotkin
Douglas Murray and VDH
Helpful to put their name up on the screen.
Always very insightful, but on such critically important topics more time for discussion would be very advantageous
Totally with HR Mcmaster , hes got it right.
Very illuminative discussion!
Need professor Stephen Kotkin on
You guys have to get Michael J. Green on to talk about Asia policy
great discussion very informative
The Good Fellows should invite John J. Mearsheimer to a session for open discussion/debate on the Ukraine situation and the appropriate response by the US.
Wow General McMaster and Niall Ferguson together great
HR is right here on what to do.
excellent.
Given to the independence of Europe on tte energy coming frim Russia, it’s no way for Russia to worry that the sanctions imposed on him work that well, he didn’t have any consequence for the invasion he started from my opinion, if putin bears no responsibility for the war, this is a terrible message to the world, it’s fine to invade a sovereignty country just like that, and it’s NOT fine to do that.
As far as sanctions, don’t they have China to buy rubles, to provide what they’re lacking, and to buy what the Russians want to sell?
Another great and informative show. I’m with HR let’s speed up Putin running into that brick wall. But my head says that Niall counter factual about desperate dictators has a high probability. The thinking in Russian foreign policy circles is that Putin has to have something that looks like a win. So the more he loses the more the tactical nuclear threat becomes a reality. And that needs to be the next show : what do we do? A counter factual on that would be fascinating! Love it look forward to the next show !
Considering that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a promise from the UK and from the USA to defend Ukraine from attack, it is disgusting beyond belief that the UK and the USA would say "We will not defend Ukraine". That brings immeasurable dishonor upon the UK and upon the USA. I (as an Australian) am reminded of Britain promising to defend Australia before World War II and then abandoning us when war came. Our response of the time was to develop chemical weapons in Homebush Bay, (Sydney) (the subsoil of which is still contaminated) and to develop biological weapons in the basement of the Wagga Wagga hospital. Similarly, small nations will now commence building biological, chemical and nuclear weapons for their own defense. Indonesia has announced that it will use its five nuclear reactors to produce nuclear weapons. Japan, has been building the precursors for their nuclear weapons and for their delivery systems for many years. It is now likely that Japan will make the final step and become a nuclear power. The damage from this UK and USA dishonor will last for a century. It will be the century of shame for the UK and for the USA. Millions of people will die needlessly as a result. Australian has invested more than 100 years in fighting with the UK and with the USA. If the UK and the USA will not honor a commitment in which Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons then Australia cannot rely upon the UK or upon the USA to help us. Any words that the UK or the USA might say in response are meaningless. The UK and the USA were honor bound to send troops to help Ukraine retrieve the Crimean Peninsula and other areas of Ukraine taken by Russia. The UK and the USA are too afraid that helping Ukraine as they promised would cause World War III. Yet, they made that promise to Ukraine in order to remove nuclear weapons from Ukraine and so reduce the risk of nuclear war. Small nations, (such as Australia), cannot now rely upon the UK or upon the USA. There is also the looting of the Ukrainian treasury by corrupt Russian sympathetic politicians and Russian Plutarchs. Also there is the accusation that while President Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States, he engaged in corrupt activities relating to the employment of his son Hunter Biden by the Ukrainian gas company Burisma. Of course, I do not know the truth of these reportedly corrupt activities. Though, they deserve to be investigated in the light of current events. Regards, Geoff. Reeks
For all the leaders they criticized for being 'isolated' they also missed the most obvious current one.
Thus goeth the Americans.
Can Germany get oil and gas from US? Would that help Germany’s decision to stop buying from Russia?
Is there any armistice we could sign with Putin, that would convince him to point his guns eastwards?
Or is there a faction in our government opposed to any threat against China, even if it comes from Russia?
Seems to me that if Putin is interested in Russia's traditional / eternal role in world history, being hailed as the bogatyr defending little brother Europe from the hordes of the East, could be a mutually beneficial arrangement.
Guys, your conversation could be mirrored to China. Great conversation.
Wow, so St. Petersburg vs. non-St. Petersburg is still a thing, in Russia? Is it still a "window to the West" theme?
Is this a lecture or a discussion?
Stalemate means Russian territorial gain, a strategically weakened Ukraine, foreign policy defeat for US/EU policy, sanctions defeat for the West and economic damage from those sanctions to the West. Then there is any further cementing of the Russia / China alliance.
There MIGHT be a Taiwan dividend if defence of Ukraine lessons translate to Taiwan - e.g. distributed small missile / drone defence which is high impact and low cost to create.
How should the Eurasian landmass (11 timezones west to east) and with its various languages and religions be governed?
What’s the answer to Niall’s question? What if Putin nukes Lviv?
The worry about Putin using nukes is real, but it's incorrect to say that Hitler used every weapon in his arsenal in the face of his defeat. Notably, there was one type of weapon he never employed, even when being beaten back: sarin gas munitions, even though he had them. Likely, because he was afraid the Allies would respond in kind.
Got the whole crew, especially HR McMaster nice😍😍
"What's the alternative? ". That sounds like a trap. No wonder human makes the same mistake over and over. Never ending cycle of war.
What are the possibilities for a revolution in Belarus? Would it pay Ukraine to pressure Belarus?
"We don't have a stalemate yet and we need to do more to get there"
Interesting way of saying "we're losing".
Geopop brought me here
Great discussion, but the flickering video gave me a migraine.
Wow
Crying for a follow-up post the sinking of the Russian flagship. Game-changing pivot, it seems, if the West were willing to acknowledge it in terms of security, arms. Should this not convince NATO to provide “whatever it takes” to secure a Ukrainian victory? … in the Donbas? Especially in light of a succession of events since the exposure of atrocities in Bucha: Ukraine’s invitation into the European Union; additional visits to Kyiv by Boris Johnson, US politicians; Zelensky’s refusal to meet with the German chancellor; reopening of the French Embassy in Kyiv; and finally the capture of this Russian general (profiled last night on the Rachel Maddow Show) and now the flagship.
All in the last nine days - another round table with Ambassador McFaul, please.
#RememberBucha
Nothing on space???🍁😎
20 minutes in ? Are we now in another space war and or a paradigm shift in big tech or and big money?🍁😎
19:40. As to Professor Mearsheimer, Mr. McFaul must believe that Stephen Cohen was wrong too. I have agreed with both of them, not that it matters anymore. I could talk for hours, citing examples, about how it is that Mr. McFaul has been wrong and with a megaphone in his face for 10 years. But, once the Russian Army invaded, Mr. McFaul can now claim to be a genius and Professor Mearsheimer a moron. Mr. McFaul has consistently ignored a very big piece of the puzzle - the Crazyman. Vladimir Putin was my tail in 1976 Leningrad. I did not know it was Putin until five years ago when I saw a photo of him in his youth. There is much more to this thread. But now is not the time. 35:30. In this instance, as in many other spheres of endeavor, ignoring the giants on whose shoulders one stands is never a wise thing. Ignoring the work of 2017 and 2018 kept those thousands who had accomplished much silent. Nothing happened in the summer of 2017 or 2018 that made newspapers. A recent enough example. 43:15. False and unreasonable expectations sewn by Lindsay Graham, John McCain and evidently Michael McFaul - and hundreds of others; it sounds as if McFaul is arguing John Mearsheimer’s and my point. The Coddington video is the best illustration of the point. 48:45. HR makes a great point about the US embassy. 50:00 I was listening to Niall’s point about leaders of Fascist regimes neither apologizing nor resigning. For a moment, I thought he was talking about gas prices, inflation, the border, IED quotas and the treatment of the Crazyman. Or maybe that laptop from Hell. 54:30. De jure, McFaul gets one right. A bit like Niall arguing for the few minutes prior. 58:15. I hate to give Niall an A+, but he gets one for this insight.
RMA42: Essential undiscussed question - Can Putin launch a nuclear weapon acting alone? Is it possible or probable that others could override his order to launch? Aren't our intelligence and military personnel in touch with the their sane respective counterparts in the Russian power structure?
Great discussion Goodfellas'
Here's my 2cents worth!
The reason why the US used nuclear devices was a surprise attack on the Pearl Harbor! This escalation was such that the US had no choice but to finish it off! Why did Japan attack the Pearl Harbor?.... because they didn't have a choice ( because of many western reasons plus Japanese realization of assured defeat!)!
In this case ....giving more and more heavy duty weapons to Ukraine...plus a notion of enforcing no fly zone etc... it's likely that Zelenski will make sure to drag NATO into the War by doing some mischief!!... Because He doesn't have any other choice! He is putting himself in the box...by wishing to claim a victory ...for a temporary Russian setback in a neighboring country (They will surely regroup)!
It is only foolish not to think this through... including even a 'Ragime Change' happens in Russia! Any new leader will have a mandate to undo the damage! Remember this particular quarrel is a hangover from the Syrian war!!!
Zelenski's demands & expectations have been rising...now 'Defeating Russia' as an open goal and US's desire for a 'Ragime Change' as a secret goal will surely bring distribution compre to 3rd World War!
This is the recipe for a disaster!
Managing Zelenski's expectations is a bigger challenge for US and European countries! Continued war in long term... will have contagious effects as bad as Covid19 !
We're not rolling out MiG-29 to Ukraine over escalation. The NATO MiG-29's are equipped with Western technological upgrades that would require training for Ukrainian Air Force personnel. The Ukrainians are better served with simpler to use weapons (Javelin/Stinger).
Completely agree with Niall. Biden must push to end this horror before things get out of hand.