PENNSYLVANIA PREDICTON | 2024 Presidential Election
Вставка
- Опубліковано 17 вер 2024
- Pennsylvania is THE keystone state in name and in practice. It was the ultimate battleground in the last two presidential cycles, and is once again the focal point of the 2024 campaign, with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump dedicating more time and resources here than anywhere else.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subscribing to my channel not only helps me out a tremendous amount, but also enables the ability for you to get every single one of my new videos in your subscription boxes; so you'll never miss content from me again! Also, don't forget to click the bell icon for notifications every-time I upload!
Subscribe Here: / @electionpredictionsof...
Become a Channel Member: / @electionpredictionsof...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Instagram: / electionpredictionsoff...
Facebook: / electionpredictionsoff...
Twitter: / epofficialyt
LinkedIn: / ryan-gest-011ab9214
Join our discord: / discord
Get in touch: electionpredictionsofficial@gmail.com
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on UA-cam, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank you to my channel members!
TheDictator
Insane Politics
Gordon Cohen
James Pearson
Angelica Martinez
Shane M
Icon m
Gerard Kapuscik
Dan Jones
Jerome Morrow
David Fierce
David
Michael Goodman
Francesco Cioni
Rob Wilkerson
Eric Anthony Jones
Jeffrey White
Michael McGrory
---------------------------------------------------------------------
This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
There are some EV typos on the map. Sorry about that! Will fix for the next video :)
According to CNN poll, Trump has the edge over Kamala in 3/5 most important voting issues:
-economy
-immigration
-experience
Whereas Kamala has the edge in 2:
-abortion
-democracy
It will be incredibly funny this November when Harris wins and your pathetic pandering to the hog audience you’ve accumulated fails miserably
Democracy 😂😂
@@nightprowler6336 yet by foot harasses leading Trump in Pennsylvania
Hey Ryan, huge fan of the channel and considering joining since I’ve started watching several of your videos. I know you consider PA a coin flip, and your gut says Trump has a slight edge. How did you determine the range of the victory margin (e.g 27K votes as opposed to 50K or 80K)? Is this based on something granular in your analysis, like how specific purple counties are trending? Thanks!
I think the whig party will win the presidency for the first time since 1848
A man can wish huh
Naahhhh…those things are really itchy! 😂
Tippecanoe and Tyler Too, lol
😂😂😂😂
Speaking of the Whig’s I think the Republican Party is going to suffer the same fate regardless of who wins the election.
500,000+ gun owners in PA are not registered to vote. Make a difference and register. You hold the key to a win.
Gun owners don’t care because neither candidate is taking that away from them
All gun owners need to get out and vote kamala trying to ban. Guns vote trump
I believe that is crucial. Because it does not matter if you favor a candidate or not, you would need to be a registered voter and I urge everyone to check their registration status before consider voting
@@IranianEngineer31305why don’t you go and physically get people?
@@Neutronism7 Honestly most of my neighborhood I think are registered voters and I think is pointless to get my state to get voters as my state is likely to go red this election anyway
I live in FL, not PA
Everyone needs to stop dooming and get out to vote
I can't
@@jankoel3082why cant u vote
@@Bizeecentral Because I'm from Europe
I don’t feel represented by any candidate. I’m voting green in Michigan
@@jankoel3082 That's a good reason.
Biden grew up in PA and barely beat Trump so I don’t see her coming close to Bidens number
Especially that she opposes fracking. It's disqualifying in Rust Belt.
@@Cubus-zapasowyI would say her flip flopping on fracking and her, along with Biden and the rest of the democratic party, hostile attitude towards fossil fuels in general will cost her
Biden is also an old white man, so he’d do better with other older white voters in PA
you never know, personally i think its top 3 closest states alongside wisconsin and georgia/arizona
Voters want candidates to be black & white on the issues, not in all kinds of shades of grey. Kamala Harris is so wishy-washy, that she's got diarrhea colors on the issues.
Too close, we need it to be bigger, they'll steal it tif it's too close.
They can’t steal it and they didn’t steal it. I’ve seen all the claims of massive voter fraud and none of them come close to closing the 80,000 vote gap that Pennsylvania had in 2020. Also, I suggest you listen to a recent “Beyond the Polls” podcast episode where the host, political analyst Henry Olsen, chats with a Republican election official from Arizona who dispels various myths around electronic voting, ballot harvesting and more.
I’m in Pa. There’s very heavy support for Trump. I see him winning this state for sure💯🇺🇸
🫡🇺🇸
REGISTER voters who support Trump, and get all family and friends out to vote ! Remember do not go to sleep! Watch the polls, watch for irregularities and be ready for anything! 🇺🇸 WE WILL WIN!
If you want trump to win, then you bring a friend with you to the polls and ask them to bring another friend with them.
What county though? Are you in one of the blue counties?
I hope that you are correct.
Kamala has zero appeal to WWC voters
Vote early in Pa
Check on your vote at your local voting precinct.
I have a few extra rooms. Anybody from a solid red state want to temporarily relocate to this battleground and get yourself registered to vote here?
I am voting early in PA and I’m voting blue down ballot
@@jaylewis5035 , ME, NOW, PLEASE !!!...
Why?
Harris did not answer the moderator if the economy is better now than it was 4 years ago. Instead, she talked about her middle class upbringing. Trump asked if he she would allow abortion in the 7, 8 and 9 months and she did not answer the question.When Trump quoted Harris on defunding the police, Harris interrupted him which was against the debating rules and the moderators did not say anything. The moderators were only fact checking Donald Trump and not Harris. Harris talked about the "bloodbath" and she was not fact checked. Kamala invoked the Charlottesville "both sides" hoax that was fact checked as a false by left wing Snopes and the "bloodbath" hoax. Also, I was wondering why Trump was debunking this and not the moderator. Seems like the moderators were biased. But anyway, Trump did very well in answering the questions and in his closing statement. I think he hammered the debate quite well.
Well if you're looking for an answer I be happy get you to that yes, the economy is better now than it was four years ago
@😅keithziegler8881
"Seems like the moderators were biased." They were virulently anti-Trump from the very start. The "debate" was a "Get Trump" effort by ABC.
@@SancharieSingh-g7q are you dumb of course it’s not better because quality of life declined significantly after the pandemic hit ALL over the world.
Cope harder. Trump was almost unmoderated and got 5 more minutes to speak than Harris. You are just mad your guy is a clown. Get over it and vote blue.
She needs Pennsylvania. That’s why she backtracked on her fracking ban. Same reason she now wants to build a wall. She needs Arizona
See that’s how stupid you are. She don’t need PA, she can still win without out. Trump on the other needs it, cause without it he can’t get 270. If she just win GA or NC and win all the other states incude WI, MI, and MN and she’s ahead in NV, she gets 270 easily
Kamala will do different once she gets in office. She’s radical and will do what she wants.
They never said they were gonna ban fracking. They said they were not going to approve additional federal fracking projects. The Green New Deal insists that oil and fossil fuels will remain important until green energy consumption overtakes fossil fuel consumption. After the green infrastructure is solidified, then and only then will fracking be banned. Let's read stuff before we make an opinion.
@@buckeyemania09 she said in 2019 she supported a fracking ban while speaking at a town hall. She also said in an interview with PBS she supported a mandatory gun buyback then denied supporting a confiscation of guns during the debate. She also said she supported defunding ICE while giving an interview at the border in 2019. ua-cam.com/video/DibvhzmbrTA/v-deo.htmlsi=eeNHoTyIeSACL5zX
@@MMAfighter38113what a way to lay down the facts 😁 that was nice of you to so informative. TRUMP 2024❤
Isnt it crazy how the fate of this country for the next 4 years will be only determined by 10k-50k votes
Yeah but it's the only chance Republicans have at winning
Yeah, it's absolutely petrifying actually our fate hinges on states with the political consciousness of Cat that can't tell if wants to go inside or outside.
Not really the case lol pa doesn’t decide elections
@@masterWindu_01 They do this time. 💦
Exactly. The votes of all is us are basically inconsequential except those of thr few thousand voters in 5 or six counties. In other words majority of the country does not matter.
WE NEED TO VOTE!
We will!
WE WILL FOR TRUMP!!!
As a life long democrat that lives in Pa. I am voting for trump. I feel like he is going to do better than he did 4 years ago. If I had to put a dollar on it, I going to say Trump will win Pa.
Putin troll. Easy to spot, not a single rational reason, just a feeling. Time to go to propaganda school again.
Well Trump has the better policies and coalition for USA rn. He has RFK Jr, Elon Musk, and Tulsi Gabbard. That's the best coalition we're seeing in a long time.
Bring family and friends with you! Thank you for your vote!
thank you for your vote and support - Trump 2024
Yes, you are correct Trump will win PA as he is winning AZ, NC, and GA. I was a democrat too in 98 and helped in Schumer's campaign in NYC. Never again. These are not the dems like Roosevelt and JFK.
I live in PA! I’m voting Trump and so is everyone I know from here.
Register people you know will vote Trump
kamala is ahead in the polls!
know of no one voting for the felon
@@joshdoe7288 how is life in the bubble. Hope the shock isn’t too much for you when it bursts
@@peterwright837 well I work in NY and my best friend from there is voting for kamal and my other good friend from NY is voting Trump and everyone I know here is voting Trump it’s called on observation lol. the random animosity on your side is the problem. Stop hating people because they disagree with you. No matter who wins I hope you grow up and find some maturity and peace in your life…… oh and trump 2024 lol
I believe that it was reported that many fewer absentee ballots have been requested in PA in 2024 compared to 2020. This should favor Trump.
🤪💙
Inflation, inflation, and illegal immigrates
I hope your prediction is right. Will you be streaming live on election night? I'd rather watch you than other news sites.
The election won't be called till at least 3 days later
Same
BS prediction. Harris win
@satishnarayan2679 no, Trump will win by more.
LUZERNE COUNTY WILL FLIP PENNSYLVANIA FOR TRUMP ! JOHN CORDORA
I live in Pa and I’m voting Trump and so is my family every one get out and vote this is our last chance to save our country
For all gen Z who are fans of Taylor Swift. She doesn’t pay your bills. You have to pay a hefty price to see concerts. Voting for Kamala you won’t have money to go get concerts
@@thucnhinguyen7093sure bro 😂
@@thucnhinguyen7093 you are just another run of the mill spin doctor
Pennsylvania please help save AMERICA 🇺🇸 VOTE TRUMP🇺🇸👍❤️
We need more states not tried we need trump 4 to 5 points ahead in these states
Its not a given but Pennsylvania has a good chance to go red.
Pennsylvania has only gone read once in the past 30 years and that was with Trump
Pennsylvanians are great Americans and they're not going to vote for the guy that tried to overthrow the last election because he got but heard about the fact that he lost
There also not up over guy that steals classified information, instigated an insurrection, is a convicted felon, adjudicators rapist, and a traitor the try to overthrow the government
Sorry, but Pennsylvanians care more about the country than that
And it has a better chance of going blue, which is why it’s a tossup.
@@peterwright837 In 2 presidential elections, Trump for some reason has overperformed the polls. If its not the case in this one then he loses for the final time. However if it remains consistent, it would be an electoral victory similar to what he got in 2016.
@@LutherusPXCs he underperformed his polls consistently by double digits throughout the primaries this year. Furthermore, Democrats have been out performing their polls pretty consistently since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe. My expectation is that 2024 will look more like 2022, when the much vaunted red wave never materialized, rather than 2016 or 2020.
Harris is actually underperforming compared to Hillary 8 years ago. She needs to be at LEAST about 4 pts over Trump in order for her to win. She has remained consistently at 1-2 points over Trump even post-debate which is still well within the margin of error. If her numbers don't dramatically change in the next say three weeks then Trump winning the election will be all but inevitable at that point
Too big to rig!!!
VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP!!!🇺🇸🗽
FKH!
The only person trying to read the election was Trump in 2020 and is trying to do it again now and were not going to let them do it this time either
We crushed them in 2020 and we will do the same in 2024
FDJT
@@lionelyarber4693wow you sound really clever and articulate 🤡
Oh watch out. He'll probably start eating cats and dogs😂
FKH NO WAY
FKT😅😅
Trump should win PA. I don’t know.
Hope so
He will not in Jesus name. We don’t want a convicted felon as president. The whole world will laugh at us.
This is the key state to win. Trump 2024 ❤️💁🏽♀️
VP Harris is going to take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin… That puts her over 270
@@keithziegler8881 I don’t see how. She was against fracking. Like how do people just blindly believe her economics policies 🤦🏽♀️
@@MayaWaters12 not blindly and fracking is bad for the environment
People of had their water tables it destroyed because the fracking
@@keithziegler8881 if you destroy fracking, you destroy the economy. Plain and simple. That’s why Harris loses Pennsylvania. Fracking creates jobs and makes good money for the US. Fracking has been very regulated and not as bad as it was.
@@MayaWaters12 She reversed her stance
After Harris didn’t choose Shapiro, she’s not getting Pennsylvania. I think it’s a clear win for Trump
I hope so!!!
Please go out to vote for Trump with your families and friends ❤❤❤❤❤Trump is always real not like harris that flip flop
How ironic ..I made a video on this recently too .. exposing her flip flops just to get votes
Economy , border , national security
Trump❤❤❤❤❤
Why did trump shoot down that border bill then?
He failed at ALL of them while president!
@@airmix08
You might be talking about your current administration
Trump had then under control
This pathetic administration that Harris is still a part of ruined it
Wake up . Stop believing the lies
@@LucZac11Because it was a garbage joke of a border bill that allowed 5,000 illegals in per day on average before we could do anything to tighten the border further.
Trump for dogs and cats barbecued party.👍
If this holds up? Do expect manual recount requests. 0.4% margin is very narrow.
Historically, recounts have changed very few net votes in the end result. Remember all of the recounts in Florida and Bush still won it by less than 600 votes statewide!
Yeah, that would be an "apparent winner", not a projection.
THANK YOU GOOD PEOPLE SUPPORTING YOUR COUNTRY WITH YOUR OWN VOTE FOR TRUMP SUPPORT TRUMP AS SUPPORTING AMERICA SAFE ECONOMY SAFE BORDEAR SAFE I HOPE CITIZEN VOTE NOT EVERY BODY NO CITIZEN PLEASE GOOD PEOPLE SUPPORT TRUMP WITH YOUR VOTE GOD BLESS AMERICA TRUMP. ISRAEL IRAN GOOD PEOPLE SUPPORTING TRUMP WITH OWN VOTE AMEN
Trump is in insurrectionist, and adjudicated rapist, a convicted felon, and a traitor
No real Americans will vote for a traitor
I don't like PREDICTIONS, but do pray Trump flips swing states
Hes senile get someone younger in
The fact Trump is tied or winning in ALL polls (except one NYT poll) makes me pretty certain he'll carry the Keystone state.
Yep because Trump overperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. A lot of his low-propensity silent working-class voters do not respond to polls but still show up to vote on election day.
Everybody needs to vote. We cannot have her in the White House. My God have mercy on us, Lord and the people Trump 2024 God bless America.🇺🇸🙏
Trump literally has a cult with people praying to him as divine with golden statues and false prophets. Trump's presence in this country has literally poisoned the faith.
If you want God to have mercy on you, pray for forgiveness. Don't demand his blessing like you are his lord, for He will not answer.
So if you're voting in the election, are you admitting that it really isn't rigged after all?
All of yall gotta get out there and vote this man in come 11/05. Turnout will win the game against mail in and absentee ballots
...THATS RIGHT, EXACTLY, TRUMP, THE THE UNBEATABLE AND UNSTOPPABLE, 2025 - 2032 !!!...
Your videos are very well made
If Trump lose PA he absolutely can't lose any of GA, WI, and AZ. No tax on tips NV don't even matter. Hope no tax on overtime will tilt MI🎉to him but MI and PA tend to go together
Once and once again, doing exactly what we want, EP! LOVE THE THEATRICS AGAIN!!! 🎉 Can't wait til the final prediction from you!
Go vote for Trump please
I'm in PA. The election here is going to be nerve wracking.
Mexicans for Trump please lets get up and vote for Trump/Vance if we want to keep our family values freedom of speech and religion ❤
🤪💙
Trump and Vance want to take away women's rights.
I thought Republicans hated Mexicans?
Wtf are you talking about
All the Mexicans I know hate him
GO TRUMP 2024 MAGA ❤❤❤❤❤
🇺🇲TRUMP2024🇺🇲
Kamala is better as a comedian than a president.
Trump is the better comedian, always
you're the comedian for even saying that
@@tonymeehan7859 it takes a comedian to spot another I suppose
@@norliahnasir2252 yep, guess so! But see, I'm not politically stupid....
@@tonymeehan7859 neither am I
Mississippi all ready so up with trumpwe voted 92 percrnt for trump in primary an doing it again the election so that is a fact don't worry about mississippi help the other states for trump
You all get out and vote president Donald Trump your life depends on this election also youe children's future. Get out vote president Donald Trump make this country to come back very good again with prosperity with Trump. Wise up everyone republicans and democrats wise up vote Trump god bless you all
I can see what kind of woman you are from this comment is you cannot think for yourself and you always do what your men folk tell you including what you think get a grip
Well done, the live results was fun.
Vote Trump! 🇺🇸
Why are you guys voting if you think the election is rigged anyway?
All the people in Pennsylvania if you can vote early and if you want to keep your jobs. You better vote trump and make it to big to rig.
😂😂
This isn't funny. The regulation Kamala will put on the energy sector will make businesses lay people off .. specially in places like Pennsylvania @@tasha1626
I like this in depth analysis! Almost every big city in Pennsylvania is trending right and big cities are Democratic strongholds. Also it's not a blue wave election, so I think Pennsylvania is going back red in 2024.
And I would like to see an updated House prediction!
God willing
Nevada will be RED 100%
You must live anywhere besides Vegas cause no. Like Maricopa County in Arizona, how Clark County votes, Nevada votes. Clark County ain't voting for Trump
Yes it will
Well done! You put a lot of time into this display of wonderful scenery graphics spot on 🇺🇸 thx
Me personally, I’m not a Trump supporter (def prefer him to Kamala) but I see no way Trump loses PA this year. It was a 1-point margin last go. Joe Biden was from Pennsylvania, Trump was even more unpopular than he is now, COVID was still raging, the economy and things sucked, etc. and he only lost by a point. Kamala is facing four years of an awful economy, an unpopular Democratic incumbent, she’s from CALIFORNIA, and she said in 2020 she wanted to ban fracking. I don’t know how you could look at all these things and not conclude it is more likely than not that all of these conditions indicate at least a 1% difference towards the GOP in the final vote tally in Pennsylvania from 2020 to 2024.
And then you take into account that Trump is likely to win North Carolina and Georgia, and it appears that Trump would by these states alone, have exactly 270 EVs.
God PLEASE. TRUMP 2024.
after that debate, you really believe so??? Maybe he can be the president for PETA
It’s not easy for everyone in this voting! She and Biden already had so many years in the White House. So I don’t have any time to waste on her again! I believe that we are the people with whom love our democracy and country will vote for the best of our leader!!🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
@@yanney6881 Trump has already had more years in the White House than Harris and look how that turned out.
Go Trump 2024! Going to see him tomorrow in Vegas!
Oh yeah he'll be definitely gone
😜💙
Let’s just hope that your prediction is correct, although the margin of victory is a lot narrower than I’d be comfortable with.
This will age like milk 🥛
Trump Trump Trump ❤❤❤❤❤
Bring it home Trump!!!
See I can’t wait for November to see you conservatives laugh. She is going to win Pennsylvania.
It's gonna suck when your prediction comes out wrong😂
A VOTE FOR TRUMP.. IS A VOTE FOR A FREE LIFE ! AND FAIR ECONOMIC PROSPERITY NOVEMBER 5th get your voice heard
Can't wait till Cruz is gone
Hey Pennsylvania!!!! Heres the keys to the country! Try not to wreck it.
You new the beginning you a aliar guy. Do the country is done with Trump. Stop stop stop stop stop.
We will see on election day if we are done with him or not! This election is far from over with how close it could be!
Trump for PA
How much funding did you get from Putin for this video?
Trump prosperity ❤
Enough of Bidenocomic, can’t afford to feed my kids. Voting for Trump…
Save your country Vote trump
Can we bring Lincoln back?
This is a fake video
Save our country please vote Trump 🎉🎉🎉🎉❤
OH YEAH! MY MADAME PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS & VICE PRESIDENT TIM WALZ 2024👍👍👍👏👏👏🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸wishing
Go out and Make sure to VOTE! Trump 2024!
Trump just Announced No tax on Overtime!
Trump all the way
Hes too old he thinks there are trans operations of migrants in prison
To jail
Excellent! Enjoyed the clip. Thank you.
FLORIDA NEXT PLSSS
If you do Florida, please keep in mind the new polls and latest enthusiasm, and not all republicans are voting for trump.
So your prediction is a Trump presidency then
Are you going to do all 50 states?
Pa will go blue Harris will win trump will be fired again
This assumes there are no shenanigans pulled by the democrats.
Your profile pic is nauseating, and no, it’s not because of the American flag.
@@edwardcumpstey9061 he's a real meat rider
Democrats aren't the ones being charged with election tampering lol
@@edwardcumpstey9061Are you being anti-Semitic?
Vote trump 2024❤❤❤❤❤
Very nicely done. I’m hitting our precinct hard. Pushing the vote early vote often mantra 😂
Bucks County recently went red. More Republicans than Democrats are registered. I think we will vote Trump. But Philadelphia cheats so badly it dominates the state. It's very frustrating.
TOUGH debate for trump. Not sure he survives it
Yeah if the debate gives Harris even a 1% bump in swing states that could seal the deal for her.
I want a all red Christmas tree
I firmly believe the winner of PA will reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January.
Which will be Harris
@@satishnarayan2679Based on what?
That depends. If Harris wins, MAGA will refuse to certify. They may even attempt to assassinate her
@@satishnarayan2679Only in your clueless liberal dreams 😊
It's ridiculous that one state can overturn the vote of millions of people in other states. Clinton and Biden both beat Trump in the popular vote yet in 2016 he got in because of a handful of states.
There is no odd election ballot counting on Election night in 2024. Americans need the integrity protected.
I moved to PA so I could vote for Harris :)
You enter regret. She'll win
@@satishnarayan2679 ? Huh?
You lost !
@@Thatdamnsmith Oops sorry I meant you won't regret. Harris will win
@@satishnarayan2679 oh yes definitely 😂 I have no doubts. Trumpers may be the loudest… but they are about to get a taste of their own medicine from a silent majority.
Lol....wishful thinking!
I doubt that will be the result
What do you think the result will be?
@@jrowletHarris wins
@@camerongeathers3830What makes you so sure?
@@jrowlet Allan Lichtman has spoken and said Harris will win the election
@@camerongeathers3830 Alan Lichtman has been wrong before (like the 2000 election, which was a very close election). This could also be a very close election, and so he could also be wrong about this one. He also said that Trump would barely carry Ohio (he won it by almost double digits). The betting markets and Nate Silver (who is also pretty accurate) could beg to differ with him.
They key to winning the Keystone State lies in Erie County. Whoever carries Erie County will win in PA.
I don't think 6.6 million people vote in PA this year
Harris 2024
BS. HARRIS WILL WIN PENNSYLVANIAN NO DOUBT
Hahaha
No Matter what whoever wins or loses dont shoot up your local polling station or borough hall 😂😭🥴
Impressive production