Excellent video, logical progression from the last one dealing with predictions using the Euler formula. It's a shame I didn't have a school teacher like you back in the day, you clearly have the knack of explaining your chosen video subject with absolute clarity. This latest video has now highlighted where I have been going wrong with my assumptions about reading/interpreting football stats and taking them literally. Thank you for the "aha!" moment.
Hi, Sorry to bother you but, I got one more question, I watched whole football section and now I am trying to do some math work, so I am rewatching it. When you were calculating Southampton's chance not to score you raised e to the negative power of 1.11 which is the average goal for southampton at home. But why didn't you take the average of the goals scored by Southampton at home and the goals conceded by Newcastle away and raise negative power on that. And vice versa for away team (southampton). Like in the previous video. Wouldn't that be more accurate? Thanks in advance.
From all this videos looks like you know many intermarkets correlations. Please give me a hint how can I estimate the second half market before kick off. Betfair doesn't offer this market , only bookmakers. I'm fed up off bookmakers and how to estimate the price for "team to win either half". Please give me a clue or do a video. Thank you
This is great stuff Peter! I still have much to learn but your videos are always instructive. Got a question: If you have a game where the average no of goals is as low as 0.65 is it better to trade Under 2.5 or Under 3.5 market? How would you approach this with this formular?
use the one that brings you more money. all depends on the odds, obviously the lover xg the less money you will make if you use nder 3.5 strategy where under 1.5 will allow you to make Moore quicker but it's much riskier. not everything is formula unfortunately.
Y, I acknowledge that, but didn't want to have to explain the function or short cut a proper explanation. I may use it in future videos where I need to simply things to do more complex calculation.
hi peter iv,e been messing about with a HT/FT points system where by i give 2 for a H/H and 1.5 for HD and 1.0 for a H/L and so on, then do a calculation on Matches played and points gained. Obviously for both teams home/away Can you if you have time to advice me when and where is the best place to use the 2.718 calculation. is it possible to send a screen shot of what i have previously been doing.please help many thanks bob, hope this all makes sense,cheers
Check our ELO ratings, which work by allocating points to outcomes. That's worth a read up. But also watch this video for how to turn data into a prediction, this should be helpful: - ua-cam.com/video/Hv1DQtxPraU/v-deo.html
I had no idea there was this relationship between eulers numbers and gpg, I can't quite work out the link in my head, how did you come across it? Edit: Ah, I think I've worked it out, similar esque as the poisson distribution
been doing reasonably well of late looking at results history between teams & basing where I put my money on that, doesn’t always work but when it does it’s quite lucrative
@@betangeltv having played the game & watching countless hours of the sport & now having an interest in trading I just cannot fathom out why anyone would lay what I would see as uncertainty when the price they are offering is that juicy it’s mad not to get on at a cheeky ridiculously low wager
Your magical Eulers Formula.Totally fascinating . Your depth of knowledge is mindblowing. Can you recommend an Excel book for dummies to get me started on understanding the linking of data to spreadsheets? Have been looking at home bias in relation to correct score trading on low scoring probability matches. Dutching the selection of scores some prematch,IP and looking for team intent in order .to trade out IP for scratch or profit., Fascinated by using the implied edge of 0-0,0-1,1-0,1-1,2-1,2-0......F/H,S/H or full match.
If the home team has scored 2 goals or more against bottom half teams 4 times out of 5 and the visiting teams has conceded 2 goals or more 4 out of 5 against top half teams why is this not a valuable set of stats?
Thanks for these series of videos very informative really helps with what the market is actually saying and what my game selection has returned and how I compare them.
@@betangeltv just watched this video again and you have made an error talking about southampton home goals at 1.11, if they were at home the figure you are comparing with is 1.52 not the 1.21 as stated in the video. you used the league away figure when you should have used the league home figure.
Great video as always! I use stats but just to give me some kind of guidance in what I might expect in that match. Like goals in set pieces for example . Bundesliga 1&2 are quite famous for teams that are very strong on this Aspect of the game. But I always leave the decisions for the inplay. Even for lower odds the team really have to convince me and fill up some criteria’s that I have for a back or a lay. Also some knowledge of the league helps as it shows that the game ca change very quick and the position would lose its value. Anyway, thanks for sharing Peter. Would be lovely to see more videos like that.
Very interesting. I found some of your much older videos on football and predicting goals earlier and found those helpful too. I have noticed that the other traders I follow Base trade selection heavily on the teams fitting narrow criteria based on the last 6 to 8 matches, but they never go into the reasoning & method for using that as a basis to predict the upcoming match. I have done a lot of analysis of horse racing in the past both my own and based on Adrian Masseys site, but can see I was stopping at the leaning on lamp post stage and not taking it forward to the next step of really looking at whether it is a good basis for predictions
Great video and I hope they make a reappearance!! If you can work out the % of BTS, is there any way this could be used to calculate the 'number' of goals scored in total?
Great video for using specific stats for odds compiling. Hopefully it stimulates some to take note and action, rather than using a simple approach to betting. 👏
Hi Peter iv,e been messing around with a few percentages such as 1.63 home team,1.21 for away which calculate to 0.19 and 0.29 multiplied them together getting 0.0551 with an answer of 18.1488 is this 18/1 or 1.8 Many Thanks Peter great video by the way
Excuse my brain lol but how would this work for the numbers you get for scored+conc per match going off soccer stats site? I have followed your process for both home and away scored+conc but the formula spits out a number which is so close to 100% when you convert to odds its like 1.15. have I done it wrong or?
Brilliant video as always. I've been binge watching so much over the past few days I now look like I live in a skip. Have to say it made me laugh when the little mini you appeared on your shoulder at 3.16.
Great video Maybe not related this.. but if you came to a good % for btts yes which would be most advantageous, back yes! or lay no! Or does in not make much difference as the book is balanced If that makes sense ?
Value can be a little subjective as it's your model against others. But generally speaking if you can back something at evens that you think is shorter then you should and vice versa.
Dear Peter, there are so many Bet Angel videos I don't know where to start. Can you select ten or so videos I could watch in order to get my head around how to use your software, primarily for horse racing, once I have mastered that, perhaps I'll then move on to football. Cheers Peter!
We try and curate content on the Academy to provide a cleaner experience. Some sort of structue to go through the software and markets. That's probably the best place to start and progress. It's a sort of documentary whereas UA-cam is like a news channel!
No, it's very complex at that level so I haven't considered it. Quite a lot of chat on the forum about different models and tweaks and refinements. So you may want to look there.
Hi Peter,I am a very interested subscriber to your channel and I would very much like to be good at predicting the out come of football. I am in a super six team at work and I am no good at picking a good team and I hate guessing any tips in how to go about selecting the right team?
We have a super six league on the Bet Angel forum. Perhaps drop in there and learn some more about what we are doing. I'm always near the top of the league come the end of the season, but you often need a little bit of luck to win it. But most people make the wrong predictions consistently.
Hello Peter Great work as always. I would love to see a video on how to predict the highest scoring half in a football match, the data that needs to be taken into account and so on. Warm wishes from Mauritius
Really enjoyable and insightful video. I can’t get my head round how to apply this to the corners market, can it be ? I usually bet on Asian corner markets and use the past 5 home games for home team and last 5 away games for away team to form a conclusion. Then if the market price is higher than what the percentage price of the historical data is then I will play. However I agree with what you are saying that we should be predicting instead of simply using historical data only
It's been a while since I last looked at corners, but if I remember correclty there are about 4 corners to a goal. As corners come from attacking actions, teh same as a goal. So if you predict goals, you can predict corners.
Because people like me are in the market pricing football matches, they tend to be pretty efficient. So I can't knowingly just put a tip and ask you to bet against it. That's the honest truth.
I'm loving this! At the moment there are no beting exchanges with a license in my country.But your videos are pure educational gold! I learn so much from your content about analysing football and about exel trying to make charts similar to yours. I hope one day i can have the chanse to put all the knolage from you to practice in the exchange!Just couple of questions.If we are multiplying the chase of two team scoring to know the chase of BTTS does this mean if we multiply the chanse of them not scoring we get the chanse/ods for 0-0?And to go to the next level is this formula the way to calculate individual scores and there chanse/ods? Again thanks for the content and your work.
Many thanks for your comment. I'm glad it's reaching beyond a purely betting exchange audience. I'll be uploading more beyond this to show you how to calculate other things.
Exelent , just one question , do you use the conceding a goal in a further refinement of the Equation. As you can have a high scoring team but if the other team doesnt score that much but has a solid defense and only concede rarely . and if so a low number of goals. it does throw off a the calculations.
@@betangeltv I have a lot of fun with it . the site soccer stats and transfer market has so much data going back almost 70 years , ready to go you can realy refine all the data. The mention of the Eulers equation did open my eyes, I had forgotten al about it , i opened my old school books . and sure there it was . If children where tought the practical uses of equations then i think . school scores would be a lot higher.
@@betangeltv nice one Peter, I've just also downloaded your odds spreadsheet, is there a way to link them all up so if you change the odds for one team the other odds change ? I have tried it but all it does it seem to change just the one you are amending
I can never understand when commentators say .... Team A has not won at Team B for 10 seasons. Makes no sense. Different players / managers / recent form etc Great advice as always. Those 10 previous meetings can't influence today's game.
You'd think not but it does happen. I assume it's psychological to some extent. Take Man Utd during Ferguson's time, for instance. So many teams were effectively beaten before the game even started when they went to Old Trafford.
Excellent video, logical progression from the last one dealing with predictions using the Euler formula. It's a shame I didn't have a school teacher like you back in the day, you clearly have the knack of explaining your chosen video subject with absolute clarity. This latest video has now highlighted where I have been going wrong with my assumptions about reading/interpreting football stats and taking them literally. Thank you for the "aha!" moment.
Thank you Mr Webb great vid, with great explanation. Can you now please sort VAR out......lol
Working on it!
Hi,
Sorry to bother you but,
I got one more question, I watched whole football section and now I am trying to do some math work, so I am rewatching it. When you were calculating Southampton's chance not to score you raised e to the negative power of 1.11 which is the average goal for southampton at home. But why didn't you take the average of the goals scored by Southampton at home and the goals conceded by Newcastle away and raise negative power on that. And vice versa for away team (southampton). Like in the previous video. Wouldn't that be more accurate?
Thanks in advance.
great and helpfull video I just want to ask where did you find the 2,718 in 13:24
From all this videos looks like you know many intermarkets correlations. Please give me a hint how can I estimate the second half market before kick off. Betfair doesn't offer this market , only bookmakers. I'm fed up off bookmakers and how to estimate the price for "team to win either half". Please give me a clue or do a video. Thank you
Wish I'd paid more attention in Maths at school and ironically not been obsessed with football
Superb, more of this please, Can you also do a video on Betfair Historical Data, I've downloaded a few but can't get them to open
Noted
This is great stuff Peter! I still have much to learn but your videos are always instructive. Got a question: If you have a game where the average no of goals is as low as 0.65 is it better to trade Under 2.5 or Under 3.5 market? How would you approach this with this formular?
use the one that brings you more money. all depends on the odds, obviously the lover xg the less money you will make if you use nder 3.5 strategy where under 1.5 will allow you to make Moore quicker but it's much riskier. not everything is formula unfortunately.
Yes please on the cross matching future video. Enlightening as always. And I bought the mug!
Thanks, I'll cover it in a future video.
Just a tip, you can use =exp() in excel instead of using the power function, same for R and python. Nice video.
Y, I acknowledge that, but didn't want to have to explain the function or short cut a proper explanation. I may use it in future videos where I need to simply things to do more complex calculation.
HI Peter would you please do this calculation for me, 2.73 avg/1.50avg just to see if i,m doing it right,please many thanks
6.5% and 22.3% respectively
hi peter iv,e been messing about with a HT/FT points system where by i give 2 for a H/H and 1.5 for HD and 1.0 for a H/L and so on, then do a calculation on Matches played and points gained. Obviously for both teams home/away Can you if you have time to advice me when and where is the best place to use the 2.718 calculation. is it possible to send a screen shot of what i have previously been doing.please help many thanks bob, hope this all makes sense,cheers
Check our ELO ratings, which work by allocating points to outcomes. That's worth a read up.
But also watch this video for how to turn data into a prediction, this should be helpful: -
ua-cam.com/video/Hv1DQtxPraU/v-deo.html
Absolutely brilliant! Thank you very much Peter, you've knocked this for 6! Please, yes, give us more! :)
Thanks, will do!
I had no idea there was this relationship between eulers numbers and gpg, I can't quite work out the link in my head, how did you come across it? Edit: Ah, I think I've worked it out, similar esque as the poisson distribution
Y, I sort of stumbled across it but it's similar. I will expand on it in future videos.
Hi,
have you published newer data base? If you did I would like to download it and to continue on my own from there.
Thanks in advance
If you visit our forum there is a lot of data people have uploaded there for you to play with.
You're vids are great, Peter. But in this one it definitely looks like you've quite literally scalped and greened-up!
I'll wear a wig in the next one, maybe?
Thanks for the work and your time as always 👍
My pleasure!
@@betangeltv This is so interesting and helpful.I hope in a future make more video of this type
@@betangeltv pls let me understand how to do the calculations ...
Really enjoying this series & long may it continue. 😁
Glad you enjoy it!
Hi Peter You have .0613 shouldn't it be .613?
Yes, well spotted. Though the final number is correct. I'll have to see if I can add an annotation to that to point out the error.
been doing reasonably well of late looking at results history between teams & basing where I put my money on that, doesn’t always work but when it does it’s quite lucrative
Hopefully this will help you become a better judge of that.
@@betangeltv having played the game & watching countless hours of the sport & now having an interest in trading I just cannot fathom out why anyone would lay what I would see as uncertainty when the price they are offering is that juicy it’s mad not to get on at a cheeky ridiculously low wager
Excellent video. Full of priceless information to help football trading become profitable in the long run.
Glad it was helpful!
Very nice! Am taking baby steps and learning alot from you! Thanks a heap!
Happy to help!
Fascinating video as always. Would be great if you could put the link for other videos that you mention. 👍
Thanks, will do!
More video's like this please Peter
Thanks for the feedback, I'll aim to continue the series.
Your magical Eulers Formula.Totally fascinating .
Your depth of knowledge is mindblowing.
Can you recommend an Excel book for dummies to get me started on understanding the linking of data to spreadsheets?
Have been looking at home bias in relation to correct score trading on low scoring probability matches.
Dutching the selection of scores some prematch,IP and looking for team intent in order .to trade out IP for scratch or profit.,
Fascinated by using the implied edge of 0-0,0-1,1-0,1-1,2-1,2-0......F/H,S/H or full match.
If the home team has scored 2 goals or more against bottom half teams 4 times out of 5 and the visiting teams has conceded 2 goals or more 4 out of 5 against top half teams why is this not a valuable set of stats?
All stats are relative. Arsenal were near the bottom four at the start of the 21/22 season and are now near the top four.
Fantastic video I am enjoying the trial of Bet angel. :)
Good to hear that
Thank you for the info that you're sharing with audience
No problem!
Thanks for these series of videos very informative really helps with what the market is actually saying and what my game selection has returned and how I compare them.
Glad you like them!
Good choice of teams Yours (Southampton) and mine (Leicester) (MemphisFlash) on your forum. Great video, loving your new formats
Much appreciated!
@@betangeltv just watched this video again and you have made an error talking about southampton home goals at 1.11, if they were at home the figure you are comparing with is 1.52 not the 1.21 as stated in the video. you used the league away figure when you should have used the league home figure.
Great video as always!
I use stats but just to give me some kind of guidance in what I might expect in that match. Like goals in set pieces for example . Bundesliga 1&2 are quite famous for teams that are very strong on this Aspect of the game.
But I always leave the decisions for the inplay. Even for lower odds the team really have to convince me and fill up some criteria’s that I have for a back or a lay. Also some knowledge of the league helps as it shows that the game ca change very quick and the position would lose its value.
Anyway, thanks for sharing Peter. Would be lovely to see more videos like that.
Thanks for your comments, much appreciateed.
Can you do a video on Value betting Peter? At what point something is a bet or a lay
I have touched on value in other video, more notably this one: -
ua-cam.com/video/DU1SSHfNK5o/v-deo.html
Very interesting. I found some of your much older videos on football and predicting goals earlier and found those helpful too. I have noticed that the other traders I follow Base trade selection heavily on the teams fitting narrow criteria based on the last 6 to 8 matches, but they never go into the reasoning & method for using that as a basis to predict the upcoming match. I have done a lot of analysis of horse racing in the past both my own and based on Adrian Masseys site, but can see I was stopping at the leaning on lamp post stage and not taking it forward to the next step of really looking at whether it is a good basis for predictions
Most of the methodlogies I see are completely flawed, so I question whether some of the advice I see is valid.
Great video and I hope they make a reappearance!! If you can work out the % of BTS, is there any way this could be used to calculate the 'number' of goals scored in total?
Really enjoy these series of football videos 👍
Glad you like them! They took a fair amount of efforts to put together!
Can you post a link to download this data in excel please?
There are some really good examples on the forum: -
forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?t=23700
Great video for using specific stats for odds compiling. Hopefully it stimulates some to take note and action, rather than using a simple approach to betting.
👏
I hope so too
Great informative video as always, I always struggle when trying to use data for strategies but this has me brimming with new ideas!
Great to hear!
Hi Peter iv,e been messing around with a few percentages such as 1.63 home team,1.21 for away which calculate to 0.19 and 0.29 multiplied them together getting 0.0551 with an answer of 18.1488 is this 18/1 or 1.8 Many Thanks Peter great video by the way
18/1
Great insight again as always. This is a really fascinating topic and I for one would certainly be interested in more videos/information.
More to come!
excellent video, thanks Peter
Glad you enjoyed it
Excuse my brain lol but how would this work for the numbers you get for scored+conc per match going off soccer stats site? I have followed your process for both home and away scored+conc but the formula spits out a number which is so close to 100% when you convert to odds its like 1.15. have I done it wrong or?
Probably not, but you sometimes need to sanitise the data as short term results, outliers or lack of data may make it look a bit out of bounds.
Very useful! Thank you.
Glad it was helpful!
Brilliant video as always. I've been binge watching so much over the past few days I now look like I live in a skip. Have to say it made me laugh when the little mini you appeared on your shoulder at 3.16.
I had to take another look after that comment.
Great video and easy to follow
Glad you liked it
Fantastic once again Peter,
Thank you! I’m glad you enjoyed it.
How do I work it out because I didn't get it all pls
Great video
Maybe not related this.. but if you came to a good % for btts yes which would be most advantageous, back yes! or lay no! Or does in not make much difference as the book is balanced
If that makes sense ?
Value can be a little subjective as it's your model against others. But generally speaking if you can back something at evens that you think is shorter then you should and vice versa.
Dear Peter, there are so many Bet Angel videos I don't know where to start. Can you select ten or so videos I could watch in order to get my head around how to use your software, primarily for horse racing, once I have mastered that, perhaps I'll then move on to football. Cheers Peter!
We try and curate content on the Academy to provide a cleaner experience. Some sort of structue to go through the software and markets. That's probably the best place to start and progress. It's a sort of documentary whereas UA-cam is like a news channel!
Great Video🎉. I wonder do you have a video going into detail of your refinements.
No, it's very complex at that level so I haven't considered it. Quite a lot of chat on the forum about different models and tweaks and refinements. So you may want to look there.
@@betangeltv Thanks for getting back! I'll definitely take a look at the forum cheers. Any possibility of a video like this in the future? 😉🤭
Possibly, I always have a long list of videos I would like to produce. But I often just don't have the time to do them justice.
I would really like to know how to do this calculation on a calculator but I’ll be quite honest,you’ve lost me.Perhaps I’m just too old for this.
TBF, a spreadsheet is best.
Hi Peter,I am a very interested subscriber to your channel and I would very much like to be good at predicting the out come of football. I am in a super six team at work and I am no good at picking a good team and I hate guessing any tips in how to go about selecting the right team?
We have a super six league on the Bet Angel forum. Perhaps drop in there and learn some more about what we are doing. I'm always near the top of the league come the end of the season, but you often need a little bit of luck to win it. But most people make the wrong predictions consistently.
Hello Peter
Great work as always.
I would love to see a video on how to predict the highest scoring half in a football match, the data that needs to be taken into account and so on.
Warm wishes from Mauritius
Really enjoyable and insightful video. I can’t get my head round how to apply this to the corners market, can it be ? I usually bet on Asian corner markets and use the past 5 home games for home team and last 5 away games for away team to form a conclusion. Then if the market price is higher than what the percentage price of the historical data is then I will play. However I agree with what you are saying that we should be predicting instead of simply using historical data only
It's been a while since I last looked at corners, but if I remember correclty there are about 4 corners to a goal. As corners come from attacking actions, teh same as a goal. So if you predict goals, you can predict corners.
Would you do the same thing for Champions League games? Would you use local leagues to determine the avg goals scored or use previous UCL stats?
No, you need to do a completely different thing. It's much harder than domestic leagues.
What a great video,
Glad you enjoyed it
You should put up a video showing us how to pick the winning team in a football match. Im not really a fan of trading but I love to have a bet.
Because people like me are in the market pricing football matches, they tend to be pretty efficient. So I can't knowingly just put a tip and ask you to bet against it. That's the honest truth.
Thanks Peter. I too am interested in inter-related markets and cross-matching. I would be interested to see a video on this.
Thanks Peter
You are welcome!
I want to ask is if possible to make this calculations for each outcome for home win, draw, away win and etc?
That will be a future video.
I'm loving this! At the moment there are no beting exchanges with a license in my country.But your videos are pure educational gold! I learn so much from your content about analysing football and about exel trying to make charts similar to yours. I hope one day i can have the chanse to put all the knolage from you to practice in the exchange!Just couple of questions.If we are multiplying the chase of two team scoring to know the chase of BTTS does this mean if we multiply the chanse of them not scoring we get the chanse/ods for 0-0?And to go to the next level is this formula the way to calculate individual scores and there chanse/ods? Again thanks for the content and your work.
Many thanks for your comment. I'm glad it's reaching beyond a purely betting exchange audience.
I'll be uploading more beyond this to show you how to calculate other things.
@@betangeltv Looking forward to future uploads!
Fantastic video Peter. Definitely want to see more of these types of vids please!
Can you advise where about on the forum this historical data you use is please
Link in the description
How does it work when the favorite plays away? Cheers.
No different as you are using the numbers of goals scored home or away, so it's already discounted into your ratings.
Exelent , just one question , do you use the conceding a goal in a further refinement of the Equation. As you can have a high scoring team but if the other team doesnt score that much but has a solid defense and only concede rarely . and if so a low number of goals. it does throw off a the calculations.
There are a large numbers of ways you can refine this, even down to player level. But it all depends on how deep you want to go.
@@betangeltv I have a lot of fun with it . the site soccer stats and transfer market has so much data going back almost 70 years , ready to go you can realy refine all the data.
The mention of the Eulers equation did open my eyes, I had forgotten al about it , i opened my old school books . and sure there it was .
If children where tought the practical uses of equations then i think . school scores would be a lot higher.
How did you come up with the power of e? I can't seem to find that video . Sorry for being annoying and thank you for your hard work
You can learn the background to that on this video - ua-cam.com/video/V-PKglUoPt4/v-deo.html
@@betangeltv thank you
Sir how to collect data and any data collection app please tell me sir
If you visit our forum there is a lot of dicussion on there on how to do it and many examples.
www.betangel.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=54
Great vid Peter, would you be able to do a calculation based on stats for working out true match odds at all ?
Yes I can, I'll cover it in a future video.
@@betangeltv nice one Peter, I've just also downloaded your odds spreadsheet, is there a way to link them all up so if you change the odds for one team the other odds change ? I have tried it but all it does it seem to change just the one you are amending
These are exactly the kind of videos I like. I've learnt a lot from them and they do inspire me to try new things.
Awesome! Thank you!
Macth for today sir
We don't tip, we trade which is very different.
Interested
We are adding all these into a playlist for the channel.
You give football bets as well?
No, we are hear to teach you how to do it yourself. If you pay for tips you are just throwing money away to be honest.
@@betangeltv you can help me with a good tipster please 😉
This is just extremely verbose, contradictory nonsense
Just stop smoking the naughty stuff...
I'd be embarrassed to even put up that comment.
Utterly ridiculous!!!!
I can never understand when commentators say .... Team A has not won at Team B for 10 seasons. Makes no sense. Different players / managers / recent form etc Great advice as always. Those 10 previous meetings can't influence today's game.
You'd think not but it does happen. I assume it's psychological to some extent. Take Man Utd during Ferguson's time, for instance. So many teams were effectively beaten before the game even started when they went to Old Trafford.
You talk too much...why dont u go to the point....from start
Because this is an explanation, not clickbait.