Yes, geopolitics is fun when it reminds me when I was daydreaming as a child, and thought that the power of nations was determined by population size and natural resources. 🤭😚
I really love hearing Peter say good things aboit the future of N. America. I'm excited to see us come closer as well. Mexico, Canada, and the US would be a powerhouse imo.
Im a 37 yr old millennial and grew up in a small midwest town that was gutted by NAFTA. The bboomers were spread out through the wprkfprce because they had all those blue collar jobs. Maytag, Butlers, Admiral, and Gates all closed up shop for Mexico and took all the small service shops with em from 90-00.
Globalization=cheap stuff and loss of local jobs. All that changes if China and Asia are oil starved, coming soon. Boomers mostly worked hard. Millennials mostly don't...have another hit.
The best part is he just chucks Industrialization overboard and holds up Stalin as the creator of 'globalization'...I mean, yeah, he's a tugboat pushing bullsh** for sure. Hmmm, the transferring of 10's of MILLIONS of slaves (labor/'job training' according to Ron DeSantis and his Frorida 'alternative facts' double speak k-12 education program) to Western European colonies...didn't happen before Stalin? The dude is literally leading around dullards around like well trained dogs.
If we can't make enough products fast enough let's make products that last longer and are more repairable. Instead of a spare iPhone how about a serviceable iPhone that lasts 10 years instead of 5 years.
Ah for the average person that would be the best course of action. Unfortunately businesses don't care about long term and haven't had to be concerned about it for a long time. They're more concerned about the short term gains and the shareholders and CEOs holding the reigns keep measuring success by those short term metrics. Any long term issues are someone else's problem. Especially when the metrics fall they all run for the hills. Any money in a long term servicable product does not reflect well in a short term profit projection. Apple would much rather you be forced to buy a new $500 device every two to five years, with an extreme preference that you buy a new device every year. Over a device that you spend $500 on then a further $2k on maintenance over the next 2-5 years. We're also in a position where your average person no longer has the skill sets to actually carry out a proper diy repair on a device like a computer or cellphone since most devices are designed to work, eventually break just outside the timeframe a company would be forced to cough up a free repair for, and be impossible to repair by the average person.
"repairable" how many of us are even aware of assembly language or the main lobe of an antenna. I don't see what we are doing like swapping out a part "repairing", it is almost equivalent to buying a new one.
He is a pipe pyper to literal children in adult bodies. He dumps industrialization for some thing about Stalin being the reason for globalization...the amount of reality one has to ignore, or rather have never learned, is MINE BLOWINGLY...just wow.
Imagine if China implodes and 10000000 starving people get into boats looking for work! Japan will get the flood of cheap labour first but then the floodgates will open.
I had never heard of Tugboat Institute, they're interesting, dedicated to long term growth "evergreen" business practices in member companies. Their values are pretty similar to where I work, though no affiliation. Their web site is worth looking through. The diversity and depth of American civil society is inspiring.
Lumping the older millennials in with the younger millennials is an injustice. Us older millennials remember life before the Internet, we remember being unable to instantly communicate with people and we remember how it was to use encyclopedias to write our school papers.We grew up outside. We grew up differently from the younger millennials. The older millennials have more in common with GenX than we do with the younger millennials.
Indeed. We are technically called xenials. One foot in each camp which means we had rough and tumble childhoods in the outdoors like gen-x but were young when the internet really took off so that technological know how is part of our dna like the millennials. It’s allegedly a very potent combination as a work force - we are just very few.
I'm a younger millennial and was born in 1991 and I had the exact same experience growing up and it wasn't until my junior year of high school that these changes via the internet really became mainstream. Lumping people into generations to divide into groups has always been an inaccurate generalization.
1000% agree. I'm 41, which supposedly makes me a millennial, but I didn't get dial-up internet until middle school, a cell phone until college, and a smartphone until I was nearly 30. My childhood is functionally identical to most of gen X's, though, which makes me a young gen Xer, not an old millennial.
Glad to see that he is getting so good at it that he enjoys it. A very knowledgeable man who makes it look easy (don't be fooled, it isn't easy). At the end, he acknowledges that we need to 'build a new world', but he does not know how that should be done, nor that the answer is a philosophical issue (since philosophy underlies all human-level thinking and action), nor that there is one out there now that solves the problem (it has to do with Broader Survival and the mindframe surrounding it).
Norway doing heavy mining, refining, and export? *checks notes* Are you making a joke? That's a joke. You made a joke. You're funny. Norway does not have the stomach to develop a highly intense environmentally damaging industrial process on the mainland.
Zeihan’s extrapolation of current demographic trends is basically a mirror image of the assumptions that fed China’s one-child policy in the first place-i.e. it was only 40 years ago that CCP policymakers feared a Malthusian population bomb rather than an impending baby bust. You don’t need heavy state intervention to change things, just a countercyclical reaction to the underlying incentives. Before the post-WW2 baby boom, the French were basically convinced they were on the road to disappearing as a people after 100 years of relative population stagnation, which explained the defeatism of 1940. In the long run, demographic trends-like prices-are self-correcting.
The irony is that as the demographics collapse all those smart people who had no kids are going to look like the fools. People don’t have kids because they’re selfish. There is no other reason other than that which stems from physical defects and the inability to breed or find a suitable mate for that matter. Just think of our ancestors were as smart as Peter thinks people without kids are we would’ve died off as a species years ago. Elon musk is a pretty smart guy and he’s in favor of having lots of kids, because he’s good at math.
Why are US manufacturers not moving into the Philippines? Cheap labor, large population, just enough corruption to get things done, but still be able to make deals and enforce them. Large number of English speakers in the population. And they actually like Americans for the most part. Seems like it is a no brainer.
Average national IQ of the Philippines is not high enough. China was a gold mine if you owned a company and only cared about enriching yourself; cheap, yet highly competent work with low obstinancy of the workers due to an authoritarian government. That is going away, but you can't simply replace it. In the real world the blank slate conception is a myth and you cannot simply replace one type of worker by another and expect similar results, much less industrialize an entire arbitrary country. Culture, social context, geography and biology matter a lot, which Zeihan actually gave an example of with Taiwan's peculiarities for microchips.
"Solar in the green" assertion is wrong. I live in the green and the panels on my roof produces over twice I use annually. Energy companies are complaining that they don't know what to do with the extra production on sunny days. We just need storage.
That's awesome! How much did you pay to have this result? Everyone with a car knows solar works. The question is the cost. Does a system pay out ten years after I move? And please don't lay the cost off on the government. In the greater Columbus Ohio area, builders are still, in 2024, using 2 x 4 framing. SAME COST as 2 x 6 framing. So pay back is zero years. What compass orientation is your house? That makes an enormous difference when thinking about solar. Thank you for your comment.
Місяць тому
@@cbarksda6139 I paid €5k for a 4.8kWhp installation on Q3 2020 and expected a recovery in 5 to 6 years. It paid back itself in less than 4 years, but that's mostly due to the energy price hike in 2022/23. My panels are facing southwest. I'm on the market for a battery now because they started paying half the money for my production in 2023. I was getting €1200 - 1300 annually for the electricity I delivered to the grid which fell down to €700 in 2023. This is on top of my own consumption. It's a no-gas home.
The thing at 30:00 regarding the balloon. some former military in Canada strongly suggested that they've long known balloons come through but it was just recently a much more sensitive radar type system let them identify exactly where they are. Suggestion to Peter: Yes you did hear they 'shot it down' and some might suggest that what you heard on the news is not exactly what happened and that is not on the bottom of the ocean.
The anecdote about German real estate financing is wrong. Usually it works 20% equity, 80% financed like everywhere else. There is “Bausparen” where you can save upfront and then secure lower interest rate but that is not as popular as it used to be. I hope good Peter is not as wrong about the rest as he is about this.
I think he’s wrong about the Chinese debt load too. That number is so high that it must either be including provincial debt or something weird like BRI loans. If they included the equivalents for the US, government debt and industry subsidies like CHIPS act funding respectively, the graph would look veeeeery bad for the US! (source: I worked in finance in Hong Kong and have read reports from the CFR on China’s current accounts) Also, as an Australian, what he said about mortgages in Australia was also fairly overblown.
Yeah he gets some other things wrong too that I looked up but he is still interesting to listen to. He has predicted future famine for many years now and it has still not happened despite Russia's invasion causing havoc in wheat, fertilizer etc.
he is an entertaining speaker for sure , he can hold the audience , and gets your attention , dont matter if u like him or not , or agree or not , you are here checking out what he has to say
He’s wrong on a lot of thingS but he’s a great speaker. He’s funny, and he does have a really good handle on the demographics and other things. Definitely far above average that’s why I recommend his books and his humor comes through in the books as well.
@@SeanEustace-zk3mc I have found his information to be pretty good, but his predictions are usually off because he usually doesn't take human reactions into account(or doesn't realize how much people can change if they are properly motivated).
The Russians didn’t forget fuel, Ukrainian home defense forces specifically targeted fuel transport with all those javelin missiles people think were stolen. The good thing…yeah that was just hilariously Russian.
I think this is the first time i heard Peter say outright that the future economy wont be based on consumption, production, or investment. I have been trying to say this for years but am not as smart as Peter.
I'm not an economist, I can't judge his message. But as a speaker and educator, he is absolutely tops compared to the otherwise dry hordes of economists trying to get some knowledge into our heads!
I work in a company that makes billions of dollars a year identifying and predicting economic trends, and I can tell you that he's wrong more often than he's right or at least leaves out important information that doesn't fit his conclusions.
@@halfglassfull Yeah, I work for a hedge fund called Citadel. I'm a programmer but I create tools for the analysts so I spend a lot of time talking with them and have some access to the data they use. They have some strong opinions on Zeihan haha.
Read his books; they cover all this in a lot more depth. Follow his YT channel (“Zeihan on Geopolitics”); he posts short videos on various topics almost every day. There are many videos of his presentations on YT, often more focused for specific audiences, often with open-ended Q&A.
Very good analysis. Clear views of the big trends and indicators. You are in my top ten (5?). Point of improvement. A bit too economic centric. I would suggest to include more the environmental constraints which will growingly impact geostrategy/economic/social/politics in coming years-decades.
What he is saying is not actually new, but the problem is there are only very few person, those organize information and dispatch to us effectively. It is because so many things were disinformed and disorganized among us. But by listening to his comment, you can reestablish your understanding toward the global environment and reconsider what is important to work with personally.
“From an international economic point of view, the two most similar presidents we’ve ever had are Joe Biden and Donald Trump.” That is an Evel Knievel jumping over Snake River sized logical jump.
The 'look' part of migrating to automation has already been done enough to keep most of us already in the industry busy for years, in many cases it's technologically adverse management who are personally invested in the idea of people working. They miss the point of freeing people up to be good at non-repetetive intervention based tasks like QA, scheduled maintenance and abstract decision making. There's the social fear of the majority being unemployed overnight, so we drag things out hurting real impactful labor. Machines are always going to be better at machine like tasks. Freeing people up to find out whatever they're better at, while reducing costs of certain goods and resources seems like a good possibility.
48:30 high end chips - yes AI winter is coming if Taiwan or global trade falls, but you do not need 2-10nm chips for EVs. They use them for self driving and other nonsense, but you can build an EV with low end chips and power conversion semis, you'll just have to drive it yourself and won't need to pay for subscription services to get the features to work.
I remember the Principal of Saint Peter High School very well. His name was Mr. Erickson. He's dead now. OH, SORRY, YOU were talking about THE PETER PRINCIPLE! Well, why didn't you SAY so?????
I would be very interested in what will happen with a decreasing labor pool while there is an increase in highly competent automation and a need to return manufacturing to the US.
yees, they call them "ghost cities." not ghost buildings, or ghost towns, but ghost CITIES - plural. i own a home in northern china and we've actually travelled to see one. its what you get when you give free money to developers to develop. they just keep building like zombie contractors.
He is Gen X and forgetting us is kind of a Gen X joke. Of course he forgot us, even though he is us! We have always always always been the forgotten.... Whatever it is, I can't think of the word
Gen x. They grew up with landlines and pagers. Currently they are packaging AGI. They know how to take a punch and how to throw one. As a parent of two Gen z boys, I can tell you they think that even the mild mannered Gen Xers are gangsta.
Damn after listening the same public speaker 2 or 3 times I wish they'd have something new to say. These are the same talking points that Zeihan gave 6 months ago.
Long-term predictions/strategies don't change overnight dude. Having the same talking points for 6 months is pretty reasonable when addressing global markets
Some stuff that Peter says predicts, I am like “nah, no way China has max 10 years to left, sounds too unrealistic.”, then I remember watching his talks from 10 years ago and it sounded like he was looking into a crystal ball.
I just want to point out to any Canadians that our banking safety systems went into effect in the Cretian Liberal government, and the point they changed was the Harper Conservatives. The Trudeau Liberals put the safety systems back. Think about that when you vote.
In a pot stinking tesla with bad bunny blasting and some white girls from la cienega hanging out the window. Phone buzzes. "Aww tite it's another Peter Zeihan video"
Peter Zeihan the best speaker ive heard varations of this 20 times and i still come back each time
Same. Demography porn. I can’t stop watching.
@@timrichardson518 His stuff is so logical. But no one ever thinks about it until pointed out.
Every month or so he'll tweak it slightly but it's still basically the same stuff as his most recent book 😂
Agree with all of these comments 🤝🏼
I have always enjoyed his numbers and analysis even when I don’t agree with him; and yes, the demographic data gives me chills.
Peter’s transition from analyst to stand-up comedian is nearly complete.
😂 totally agree, except that for me he’s always been a sad comedian
He has the soul of a poster
Ken, dear... he always acted like that... 👆
Naw, he's just a better and better speaker.
He's hilarious
Peter Zeihan is a genius, he's predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions...
We did NOT start moving into cities because of Stalin...this dude literally shovels bullsh** by the truckload.
And yet here you are watching him.
Funny how that works.
@@ButterfatFarmsis he your dad?
@@steviewonder417 well don't you sound defensive about being one of those people who watches him anyway.
You can say whatever you want about Zeihan's politics and doomsaying but he is pretty funny and makes geopolitics fun.
Yes, geopolitics is fun when it reminds me when I was daydreaming as a child, and thought that the power of nations was determined by population size and natural resources. 🤭😚
Oof the comedy is incredibly lame
@@VoltLover00so is your post.
I like him 🎉
Just another video of Peter Zeihan that Im gonna watch multiple times .
Thank you mate, also thank you for dating the talk.
*Nate
I really love hearing Peter say good things aboit the future of N. America. I'm excited to see us come closer as well. Mexico, Canada, and the US would be a powerhouse imo.
This man is a comic genius and a great communicator. ❤ it! Tough talk, tough love.
For real, with in the first few minutes he says Stalin, not industrialization, changed globalization? WTF? Talk about pulling a fast one on dullards.
The comedy is pretty average imo. He is a great speaker with really good fluidity and timing though.
@@John-mf6ky Weaves a marvelous alternate reality to fit his belief system, for sure. Literally rewriting history.
Im a 37 yr old millennial and grew up in a small midwest town that was gutted by NAFTA. The bboomers were spread out through the wprkfprce because they had all those blue collar jobs. Maytag, Butlers, Admiral, and Gates all closed up shop for Mexico and took all the small service shops with em from 90-00.
Same story here
Sounds like Galesburg, Illinois.
Globalization=cheap stuff and loss of local jobs. All that changes if China and Asia are oil starved, coming soon. Boomers mostly worked hard. Millennials mostly don't...have another hit.
and now they want to bring them back??? Or is it the desperate American workers that appeal to business owner greed??
Oh hello fellow Michigander 😅
I really appreciate Jon Hamm's nerdy brother explaining the global economic situation in terms I can understand.
Came here for Tugboats and stayed for Peter Zeihan.
Tugboats are Tight!
The best part is he just chucks Industrialization overboard and holds up Stalin as the creator of 'globalization'...I mean, yeah, he's a tugboat pushing bullsh** for sure. Hmmm, the transferring of 10's of MILLIONS of slaves (labor/'job training' according to Ron DeSantis and his Frorida 'alternative facts' double speak k-12 education program) to Western European colonies...didn't happen before Stalin?
The dude is literally leading around dullards around like well trained dogs.
💪🫶🫡🇬🇧🛸
Thank you Nathan!
Fantastic delivery, thankyou.
Respect from Australia
If we can't make enough products fast enough let's make products that last longer and are more repairable. Instead of a spare iPhone how about a serviceable iPhone that lasts 10 years instead of 5 years.
Amen. Never happen.
Ah for the average person that would be the best course of action. Unfortunately businesses don't care about long term and haven't had to be concerned about it for a long time. They're more concerned about the short term gains and the shareholders and CEOs holding the reigns keep measuring success by those short term metrics. Any long term issues are someone else's problem. Especially when the metrics fall they all run for the hills. Any money in a long term servicable product does not reflect well in a short term profit projection. Apple would much rather you be forced to buy a new $500 device every two to five years, with an extreme preference that you buy a new device every year. Over a device that you spend $500 on then a further $2k on maintenance over the next 2-5 years. We're also in a position where your average person no longer has the skill sets to actually carry out a proper diy repair on a device like a computer or cellphone since most devices are designed to work, eventually break just outside the timeframe a company would be forced to cough up a free repair for, and be impossible to repair by the average person.
"repairable"
how many of us are even aware of assembly language or the main lobe of an antenna.
I don't see what we are doing like swapping out a part "repairing", it is almost equivalent to buying a new one.
Probably because people buy things that are cheaper in the short term
Companies would have to think long term... Not impossible, but sort of like asking for a selfless politician.
We all want what he’s saying about China to be true.
He is a pipe pyper to literal children in adult bodies. He dumps industrialization for some thing about Stalin being the reason for globalization...the amount of reality one has to ignore, or rather have never learned, is MINE BLOWINGLY...just wow.
The Anglo can’t cope with the rise of China
Imagine if China implodes and 10000000 starving people get into boats looking for work! Japan will get the flood of cheap labour first but then the floodgates will open.
I had never heard of Tugboat Institute, they're interesting, dedicated to long term growth "evergreen" business practices in member companies. Their values are pretty similar to where I work, though no affiliation. Their web site is worth looking through. The diversity and depth of American civil society is inspiring.
Lumping the older millennials in with the younger millennials is an injustice. Us older millennials remember life before the Internet, we remember being unable to instantly communicate with people and we remember how it was to use encyclopedias to write our school papers.We grew up outside. We grew up differently from the younger millennials.
The older millennials have more in common with GenX than we do with the younger millennials.
Im 45 and just found out I'm a millennial. I have absolutely nothing in common with any millennial I know
Indeed. We are technically called xenials. One foot in each camp which means we had rough and tumble childhoods in the outdoors like gen-x but were young when the internet really took off so that technological know how is part of our dna like the millennials. It’s allegedly a very potent combination as a work force - we are just very few.
I'm a younger millennial and was born in 1991 and I had the exact same experience growing up and it wasn't until my junior year of high school that these changes via the internet really became mainstream. Lumping people into generations to divide into groups has always been an inaccurate generalization.
As an Xer I agree
1000% agree. I'm 41, which supposedly makes me a millennial, but I didn't get dial-up internet until middle school, a cell phone until college, and a smartphone until I was nearly 30. My childhood is functionally identical to most of gen X's, though, which makes me a young gen Xer, not an old millennial.
Awesome!
MORE of this please!
Subbed.
It's incredible what this man can do with a thimble of truth
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
Very interesting stuff.
Good analysis on economics but you can see the biases and blinders come up once he gets to politics.
Always a pleasure to listen to Peter ❤❤❤
Excellent ✔️
Yes, Canadian here! Thank you
I don't know where you find these but thanks Nathan.
Glad to see that he is getting so good at it that he enjoys it. A very knowledgeable man who makes it look easy (don't be fooled, it isn't easy). At the end, he acknowledges that we need to 'build a new world', but he does not know how that should be done, nor that the answer is a philosophical issue (since philosophy underlies all human-level thinking and action), nor that there is one out there now that solves the problem (it has to do with Broader Survival and the mindframe surrounding it).
Subbed!
Thanks Nathan!
You can relax a little. BHP has scads of potash coming online in Canada soon, plenty enough to export.
Yes, and didn't Norway find a big deposit just recently.
Norway doing heavy mining, refining, and export?
*checks notes*
Are you making a joke? That's a joke. You made a joke. You're funny.
Norway does not have the stomach to develop a highly intense environmentally damaging industrial process on the mainland.
Britain is mining potash 1000 meters below the North Sea, who knows how far out to sea that deposit stretches.
Zeihan’s extrapolation of current demographic trends is basically a mirror image of the assumptions that fed China’s one-child policy in the first place-i.e. it was only 40 years ago that CCP policymakers feared a Malthusian population bomb rather than an impending baby bust. You don’t need heavy state intervention to change things, just a countercyclical reaction to the underlying incentives. Before the post-WW2 baby boom, the French were basically convinced they were on the road to disappearing as a people after 100 years of relative population stagnation, which explained the defeatism of 1940. In the long run, demographic trends-like prices-are self-correcting.
"adults are not stupid"
... Peter, can I get a source for that metric? 😅 I have doubts
The irony is that as the demographics collapse all those smart people who had no kids are going to look like the fools. People don’t have kids because they’re selfish. There is no other reason other than that which stems from physical defects and the inability to breed or find a suitable mate for that matter. Just think of our ancestors were as smart as Peter thinks people without kids are we would’ve died off as a species years ago. Elon musk is a pretty smart guy and he’s in favor of having lots of kids, because he’s good at math.
Apparently he's never seen the people employed by the government. Any government. Lol...
Why are US manufacturers not moving into the Philippines? Cheap labor, large population, just enough corruption to get things done, but still be able to make deals and enforce them. Large number of English speakers in the population. And they actually like Americans for the most part.
Seems like it is a no brainer.
Becouse America would be even more broke than it allready is, and more homeless, junkies,... 😂
People like you are why there are problems.
Average national IQ of the Philippines is not high enough. China was a gold mine if you owned a company and only cared about enriching yourself; cheap, yet highly competent work with low obstinancy of the workers due to an authoritarian government. That is going away, but you can't simply replace it. In the real world the blank slate conception is a myth and you cannot simply replace one type of worker by another and expect similar results, much less industrialize an entire arbitrary country. Culture, social context, geography and biology matter a lot, which Zeihan actually gave an example of with Taiwan's peculiarities for microchips.
@@TheYoshi463 This is just HILARIOUS. You do realize, there was a time when ppl said the exact same thing about, china, S.korea and Japan?
Careful what you wish for... Industrialization is a short term blessing and a long term curse.
wow great
Over here saying we are willing to help
Green trees, happy arboreal day
Peter Zeihan for president!
"Solar in the green" assertion is wrong. I live in the green and the panels on my roof produces over twice I use annually. Energy companies are complaining that they don't know what to do with the extra production on sunny days. We just need storage.
That's awesome! How much did you pay to have this result? Everyone with a car knows solar works. The question is the cost. Does a system pay out ten years after I move? And please don't lay the cost off on the government. In the greater Columbus Ohio area, builders are still, in 2024, using 2 x 4 framing. SAME COST as 2 x 6 framing. So pay back is zero years. What compass orientation is your house? That makes an enormous difference when thinking about solar. Thank you for your comment.
@@cbarksda6139 I paid €5k for a 4.8kWhp installation on Q3 2020 and expected a recovery in 5 to 6 years. It paid back itself in less than 4 years, but that's mostly due to the energy price hike in 2022/23. My panels are facing southwest. I'm on the market for a battery now because they started paying half the money for my production in 2023. I was getting €1200 - 1300 annually for the electricity I delivered to the grid which fell down to €700 in 2023. This is on top of my own consumption. It's a no-gas home.
Incredible delivery,. knowledge, humour and cross cultural knowledge
The thing at 30:00 regarding the balloon. some former military in Canada strongly suggested that they've long known balloons come through but it was just recently a much more sensitive radar type system let them identify exactly where they are.
Suggestion to Peter: Yes you did hear they 'shot it down' and some might suggest that what you heard on the news is not exactly what happened and that is not on the bottom of the ocean.
Some of us know more but choose to not share. Hum.
Wow
Muchas gracias
The anecdote about German real estate financing is wrong. Usually it works 20% equity, 80% financed like everywhere else. There is “Bausparen” where you can save upfront and then secure lower interest rate but that is not as popular as it used to be. I hope good Peter is not as wrong about the rest as he is about this.
I think he’s wrong about the Chinese debt load too. That number is so high that it must either be including provincial debt or something weird like BRI loans. If they included the equivalents for the US, government debt and industry subsidies like CHIPS act funding respectively, the graph would look veeeeery bad for the US! (source: I worked in finance in Hong Kong and have read reports from the CFR on China’s current accounts)
Also, as an Australian, what he said about mortgages in Australia was also fairly overblown.
Yeah he gets some other things wrong too that I looked up but he is still interesting to listen to. He has predicted future famine for many years now and it has still not happened despite Russia's invasion causing havoc in wheat, fertilizer etc.
Oh, he definitely made some other incorrect statements
he is an entertaining speaker for sure , he can hold the audience , and gets your attention , dont matter if u like him or not , or agree or not , you are here checking out what he has to say
Peter is probably one of the best speakers I have ever heard. The content can be debatable but the delivery is incredible
He’s wrong on a lot of thingS but he’s a great speaker. He’s funny, and he does have a really good handle on the demographics and other things. Definitely far above average that’s why I recommend his books and his humor comes through in the books as well.
@@SeanEustace-zk3mc I have found his information to be pretty good, but his predictions are usually off because he usually doesn't take human reactions into account(or doesn't realize how much people can change if they are properly motivated).
Huge manufacturing history
The Russians didn’t forget fuel, Ukrainian home defense forces specifically targeted fuel transport with all those javelin missiles people think were stolen. The good thing…yeah that was just hilariously Russian.
I think this is the first time i heard Peter say outright that the future economy wont be based on consumption, production, or investment. I have been trying to say this for years but am not as smart as Peter.
Peter is the best geo-entertainer so far
He lived
He’s like a weather man
Peter murdered this time up
Here for the comments and not disappointed. The modern equivalent of a palm reader.
Now I get it! I know where u came from
I'm not an economist, I can't judge his message. But as a speaker and educator, he is absolutely tops compared to the otherwise dry hordes of economists trying to get some knowledge into our heads!
I work in a company that makes billions of dollars a year identifying and predicting economic trends, and I can tell you that he's wrong more often than he's right or at least leaves out important information that doesn't fit his conclusions.
@@elmateo77 so the company you work for does similar work to Ziehan? A competitor?
@@halfglassfull Yeah, I work for a hedge fund called Citadel. I'm a programmer but I create tools for the analysts so I spend a lot of time talking with them and have some access to the data they use. They have some strong opinions on Zeihan haha.
Absolutely brilliant..I have felt for years the world needs a course correction on its dystopia path.
What a brilliant guy!
Peter Zeihan is for sure on my Blunt List.
I wonder what was cut @ ~54m in.
Read his books; they cover all this in a lot more depth. Follow his YT channel (“Zeihan on Geopolitics”); he posts short videos on various topics almost every day. There are many videos of his presentations on YT, often more focused for specific audiences, often with open-ended Q&A.
If the economy is not based on investment, consumption, or production, then it will be inheritance!
Living in USA
Very good analysis.
Clear views of the big trends and indicators.
You are in my top ten (5?).
Point of improvement.
A bit too economic centric.
I would suggest to include more the environmental constraints which will growingly impact geostrategy/economic/social/politics in coming years-decades.
Brilliant. I take back all the mean things I said about Zeihan. But I do wish he's learn to love the First Amendment.
MAGA wants a theocracy and abolishing the Constitution.
Beyond depressing. Simply no way that there will be a place at the table for the vast majority of humanity. 😢
Yeah if you live in the US you have to be thankful
Best one yet
What he is saying is not actually new, but the problem is there are only very few person, those organize information and dispatch to us effectively.
It is because so many things were disinformed and disorganized among us.
But by listening to his comment, you can reestablish your understanding toward the global environment and reconsider what is important to work with personally.
The correction in Australia is soon to come. Heard from several people who own several houses thinking about selling at least one of their properties.
Nice job. Much better than WEF.
The date is wrong. This was a lot earlier
New economic model will be on travel and hospitality, and health.
10:38 each of the 4 graphs use different total pop. measurements at the bottom, makes china appear much smaller.
Peter's logic is quite good. A causes B which causes C. He has few logical jumps. I like that.
“From an international economic point of view, the two most similar presidents we’ve ever had are Joe Biden and Donald Trump.” That is an Evel Knievel jumping over Snake River sized logical jump.
Millennials aren't 45 this year I'm Gen X, according to all my memories & generations setting.
The 'look' part of migrating to automation has already been done enough to keep most of us already in the industry busy for years, in many cases it's technologically adverse management who are personally invested in the idea of people working. They miss the point of freeing people up to be good at non-repetetive intervention based tasks like QA, scheduled maintenance and abstract decision making. There's the social fear of the majority being unemployed overnight, so we drag things out hurting real impactful labor. Machines are always going to be better at machine like tasks. Freeing people up to find out whatever they're better at, while reducing costs of certain goods and resources seems like a good possibility.
48:30 high end chips - yes AI winter is coming if Taiwan or global trade falls, but you do not need 2-10nm chips for EVs. They use them for self driving and other nonsense, but you can build an EV with low end chips and power conversion semis, you'll just have to drive it yourself and won't need to pay for subscription services to get the features to work.
I can’t be the only one hearing Jeff Daniels.
Was Peter talking about the Peter principal. Well, CIA limited hangout.
I remember the Principal of Saint Peter High School very well. His name was Mr. Erickson. He's dead now.
OH, SORRY, YOU were talking about THE PETER PRINCIPLE! Well, why didn't you SAY so?????
In the first three minutes I was enthralled by this video lol
You're boring.
I would be very interested in what will happen with a decreasing labor pool while there is an increase in highly competent automation and a need to return manufacturing to the US.
This video has improved my outlook for the future......BUT...
I'd REALLY like to see the unedited version....
Reminders were Emporer and they'll remember Aesop
The "Bitcoin is going to zero" guy.
We are Stars now In the Copeshow
The debt is the interest owed on loans, that's the problem.
those shoes say a lot 😁😁😁
I am watching now. I like most of his ideas. Not sure about some predictions because of chaos one dictator can cause
Thurs 9 pm north Arizona's time zone
True, he is all about, generally speaking.
Does anyone know if Zeihan's statement on Chinese housing is correct? Enough unlived homes to house between 1.5-3bn people???
yees, they call them "ghost cities." not ghost buildings, or ghost towns, but ghost CITIES - plural. i own a home in northern china and we've actually travelled to see one. its what you get when you give free money to developers to develop. they just keep building like zombie contractors.
I've seen it from multiple sources. So probably.
He's not the only one saying it, that's for sure. Search "number of chinese vacant homes" in Google, and check it out!
You forgot GEN X! HELLO!! We're hard working too! Best generation, actually.
Dude, that is what characterizes us. Being forgotten since our childhood. 😅
Raised on hose water and neglect.
He is Gen X and forgetting us is kind of a Gen X joke. Of course he forgot us, even though he is us! We have always always always been the forgotten.... Whatever it is, I can't think of the word
Gen x. They grew up with landlines and pagers. Currently they are packaging AGI. They know how to take a punch and how to throw one. As a parent of two Gen z boys, I can tell you they think that even the mild mannered Gen Xers are gangsta.
GenXer here, we're just quantitatively irrelevant, sort of. ;/
This actually new, March 19 2024?
He has been saying China has 10 years for years. When does the clock start?
When China gives accurate stats
The housing market already went for an 80% crash, big construction projects that never started or built using everything but the proper materials
You look at the shenanigans that are occurring over there? Not to mention they are trying to cover everything up.
Damn after listening the same public speaker 2 or 3 times I wish they'd have something new to say. These are the same talking points that Zeihan gave 6 months ago.
Long-term predictions/strategies don't change overnight dude. Having the same talking points for 6 months is pretty reasonable when addressing global markets
Saying the same thing because the same things are still happening
Each one expounds a little more thoroughly on the situation though and is worth following along his work.
Welcome to an information continuum. You get the gist now you sift for new pieces or for the different questions in the crowd.
What kind of damn batteries is he charting? 58:23
Some stuff that Peter says predicts, I am like “nah, no way China has max 10 years to left, sounds too unrealistic.”, then I remember watching his talks from 10 years ago and it sounded like he was looking into a crystal ball.
How many people are watching this right now? 8:58 PM mountain time Thursday, March 21st.
me, nevada
Yea
Hawaii
Idaho
Canada pacific time.
57:22 was probably the most psychopathically savage joke I have ever heard 😂
I just want to point out to any Canadians that our banking safety systems went into effect in the Cretian Liberal government, and the point they changed was the Harper Conservatives.
The Trudeau Liberals put the safety systems back.
Think about that when you vote.
Ah yes, we should vote for the guys who flooded the county. No thanks.
In a pot stinking tesla with bad bunny blasting and some white girls from la cienega hanging out the window. Phone buzzes.
"Aww tite it's another Peter Zeihan video"
Peter looks more like a Far Cry villan every year
Weird though its 8:50pm...
What did he say at 49:30? It sounded like "... and we will lose Atlanta and Detroit..."