One contradiction is that bring in people from the rural areas to continue to boost the economy and having the option to grow their food. You cannot have both.
@@clanholmes sure you can. Most agriculture production is mechanised anyway. One machine can replace the work of dozens of people whose effort can then be brought into the city and trained to do other things. Surely you don't still believe everyone still farms the old fashioned way.
Hes right about 70% of the time he simply uses analytics. I made a lot of money from him. By the way, how much is the CCP paying you to talk trash on him?
China is absolutely NOT addressing their fertility rate issue, as you say China's latest rate is already down to about 1.2 (replacement needs 2.1 or more) and demographic experts see a Chinese government refusing to engage with child-rearing booster polices. The overnment attitude most people see from China's government is "there will be much fewer Chinese in a few decades but it is okay, the quality of life will be better for a smaller population"
@@Gabriel-lChinese farmland requires a lot of fertilizer, which requires a lot of energy, which China does not have. Plus mechanization in agriculture has its downsides, even if you temporarily boost yields you’re draining the soil and soon enough you get a great dust bowl.
This sort of credible challenge is deeply appreciated. Peter is still human and can make mistakes. I appreciate even more that you delivered this critique with the utmost of respect. You’re an excellent example of professionalism in this regard. Thank you.
There is a difference between honest mistakes that all humans make and having an inherent bias which peter has. According to him and many of his fans america has no major problems and the rest of the world is on the verge of collapse. Its not about his false predictions on china, he has made numerous predictions over the time that have fallen flat on his face, kinda like his mentor george friedman
That originated from all the sensationalists on UA-cam. Peter Schiff predicted twenty of the last two recessions. Fear bros predicted twenty of the last two housing collapses. Etc.
I've watched a lot of Zeihan vids and value his analysis, but I'm often surprised at the somewhat extreme nature of his conclusions because they seem not to allow for the possibility of any intervention. I just don't think the world works that way. Thanks for your presentation.
@@fell5514 the world is so chaotic that nothing ever follows predictions. A new war, natural disasters, world leaders falling ill or getting involved into scandals, economic crisis, etc. Any of these events, or their combination, can totally change the trajectory of any country.
That in no way means that we shouldn't try to make predictions about what will happen, you can still plan for the future even though we're all well aware that unexpected things sometimes happen.@@mind.journey
I learn a lot from what he (Zeihan) presents. I sometimes disagree with his conclusions though, particularly when they get political and his biases show through. Not sure he always takes the ability of people to screw things up into consideration, or that things don't always happen for logical reasons. In his books he goes into great detail about US geography and how this makes the US so super competitive on the world stage, and how it in fact is so much better than much of the rest of the world, which I believe is correct. However he then states that "it is impossible to screw this up," which I disagree with completely. Never underestimate the ability of human beings to screw things up. For example, if for some reason the US were to end up subdividing into multiple countries, this would in fact screw this up. You could say that this would never happen, but never is a long time. None of the folks I worked with expected the Soviet Union would suddenly collapse, and that it would do so not with a bang but with a whimper. Yet it did. If there is one thing I have learned in 66 years on this planet it is "never say never."
Very good video. The problem I have found with Mr. Zeihan is that he more often than not 1) Comes to a conclusion, and then 2) Finds facts to support his conclusion.
Is it possible he makes conclusions After analyzing the data? I think that’s how smart people go about it. Yeas he’s not Obama the eternal optimist, but if I wanted to hear only happy stories I would probably search for funny cat videos.
@@Antoniomartinez-ey8lyhe's definitely biased. He draws a conclusion beforehand based on his inherent biases, then finds some vague studies supporting his narrative which then convinces him to double down on his narrative and propagate a more extremist version of it.
I think your peer reviews and fact check videos of these popular youtubers are really important. Especially as they serve a big audience that might not be as critical. This may cause even more less critical information spreading the globe. So well done Joeri. You make youtube a better place
@@yaoliang1580Just look at Comedy Show CIA Funded Analysis that china's recent 7nm Chip leap..he said a just month before that china can't make chips Above 10nm Lmao😂😂And then that huwae thing happened 😂😂..Suprised he even reacted to it😂😂😂but as usually he does..he did state China bad again 😂😂and Collapse story was still present there
@@GTFO_0 he's just a sponsored anti China fake news propagandist and he isn't worried that his lies are being exposed bcos his followers are so brainwashed n ignorant that they will buy into all those garbage narrative that he regularly feeds them
As a geography teacher I've been keeping tabs on Zeihan for many years and, in my view, he has always attracted people's attention through sensational claims. To me, he is a very knowledgeable sophist. In many of his talks with military personnel he make these claims about how America's greatest rivals aren't really a threat and that countries like China could be easily contained. In his lectures to American soy farmers he always claims that they shouldn't worry about Brazillian competition because of Brazil's bad infrastructure and narrow export corridors.However, year after year, Brazil has produced more soy beans, exported more and more, and has now finalized its largest railway in decades, that cuts the nation from north to south. To me, he will always overlook other nations success, particulary those that have some sort of beef with the US, may it be peaceful competition or geopolitcal rival. I'm a great admirer of the US society and, as a Brazillian, always find ways to learn more about our flaws by observing America's example, but Zeihan only seems to apreciate the success of his country and some of America's friends.
Yeah, you're spot on. The world is full enough of fake news as it is; people like Zeihan aren't merely harmless entertainers - they're spouting lots of pointless messaging at high volume. All that noise really does distract from the signal. People overestimate their ability to filter out that noise, because we usually only consider explicit examples - but that's a form of selection bias; the most pernicious noise is the kind we barely have time for and can't be bothered to think about, *not* the kind we both to sink time and effort into; and that's just everywhere due in part to people like Zeihan.
I have traveled and worked in China for about forty years, and have followed its astonishing economic progress with a great deal of interest. You are correct: Zeihan correctly points out problems that now face China, but draws hyperbolic negative conclusions.
Hyperbolic is definitely an accurate description of Zeihan. This time last year Zeihan took Apple's obvious, and significant problems manufacturing in China at the end of covid, and confidently announced Apple would not launch their next phone at all. Of course Apple didn't just give up, they made a few changes and fixed it. Ziehan doesn't factor in those motivations, so predicts a crash. However, the comment in this video that there's no evidence that Xi isn't making big mistakes seems to not factor on Xi's 'zero covid' policy, which was totally nuts and almost broke the country. One more of those mistakes would knee-cap China.
Mr Zeihan is not wrong on some of the issues and I must say I enjoy his way of “explaining” the points of views he has. He also is not a “phony” in my opinion. He genuinely has valid points and points to the obvious in an unbiased manner. However, I do take his arguments predictions and ideas with caution since he seems to always discount the ability for humans or humanity for that matter to adjust, address and or make the necessary changes.
The current rapid ascension of labor costs are directly related to the impending population collapse in China. With a majority of the population base needed for healthcare when the 1-child policy comes to fruition, few to no people will be left to man the factories. What is on the horizon is an absolute collapse. China is at the peak of their current empire's run.
I appreciate your thoughtful criticism of Zeihan's predictions and assessments of China. I must mention the Lancet study was published before China admitted to miscounting its population in 2023. The impact was over 100 million. Given the propensity for China to report data with an overly optimistic lens, we are likely to see more corrected census reports. Not to criticize the Lancet, but if they are using faulty data from China, then their conclusions will be inaccurate.
the claim that China regularly lies in it's data is one without evidence. but hey its always open season when talking smack about "others" right? We all know the US government is pristine for it's track record with honesty. Also, if you actually understood the first thing about China or it's culture then you would know that if they do lie they would almost certainly be lying to make themselves look weaker, not stronger. That's basic Chinese culture and mindset even a child would understand. UA-cam geniuses, of course not. Did you actually finish high school? Not that the so called standards are very high in the US, where 2/3 of the country can't read on a 5th grade level and half of adults are self reported creationists who think the Earth isn't even as old Chinese pottery.
Using wrong or faulty is a problem. Using good data is important for predicting or correcting the current problem. Humans can use data to control to a certain point. But mother nature has the ultimate control, like the weather. China imports a lot of things. If the weather is bad in a country where China imported things from then, it would be bad for China.
Thank you for this detailed insight. Sometimes when listening to Peter I have this nagging feeling that he is caught up in his own confirmation bias. I appreciate your rational and thorough analysis.
Very American centric, his history knowledge is sketchy, and predictions around China are extremely difficult. Everything is extreme reaction in comparison to the West. They tend to blow up trade deals and then scratch their heads when that action becomes negative and are bewildered when apologies don't restore the status quo. The articles in Asian media mocking the new 'China likes America now' rules, Xi's non reaction to the second dictator comment and a third construction giant's collapse, foxxvcon slow down, and W.H.O knocking on the door wanting details about their new respiratory disease outbreak will bring forth some more China is doomed content. Even Michael Petitis has a sense of foreboding.
He is biased and I don’t like it. When he praises Biden and bashes trump I know where he leans. He has Trump derangement syndrome and should look at reality
It's good to get a fact check, at least on the economics aspects but neither one has a perfect analysis of the situation, Zeihan is likely right about the piracy bit as the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have shown.
I feel like the most obvious red flag in this case is him apparently equalling a potential economic collaps with the end of China as a political entity...
@@Worddwizard I think this is the one component that I think Yuri falls out of his expertise and relies on a caricature. The US Naval doctrine for 70+ years has been explicitly about freedom of navigation and straight control. It has been, through fits and starts, changing that doctrine over the last 10 (see the concept of the littoral combat ship, the Zumwalt shenanigans, and most recently restarting frigate production). I think both Joeri and Zeihan, to a degree, have caricatured piracy, of which we all tend to think "disney movie/Johnny Depp." Or privateering on the high seas. When, as you point out, the more relevant point is the US' less stringent response to security concerns, such as Houthi attacks on shipping. The last time someone repeatedly tried/succeeded in poking holes in shipping, the US had a bad habit of "proportionally" wiping out large sections of their navy or crippling their country. Now, it is using Houthi attacks as Aegis target practice. And shipping companies are considering and using alternate routes. A less secure trade environment does produce economic effects. Whether it keeps going towards Zeihan's analysis or this channel's analysis is up for grabs. I suspect it's more likely to be a lack of US intervention when other countries make a trade dispute slightly more physical, impounding ships, or imposing higher transit taxes, or semi/non-state actors replicate Houthi tactics. Rather than seeing swashbuckling sub-continenters hijacking supertankers on the regular.
Average age of Chinease manufactoring worker - 40 number of Chinease manfactoring workers - 112 MILLION Number of Chinease people in their 20's and 30's 70 million
This is very competent, careful analysis. Your conclusion is right on the money. Peter Z provides provocative insight, but people are seduced by his confidence and salesmanship. NOBODY knows the future, especially when it comes to collective human behavior. Having said that, COMPARATIVE analysis like this is invaluable to help us understand our complex world. Thank you.😊
Agreed, but there is one source that has accurately predicted the future over and over without error -> the Bible. It predicted Israel to return on exact date May 14, 1948 near 3000 yeard ago. And predicted this new war with Hamas in Psalm 83. Next up is Ez 38,39 and the Tribulation and Rapture. People need to be alarmed at this because these prophecies are finally really happening.
Tommy, you said "Nobody knows the future". WRONG. Do you remember February of 2021 when everyone in Texas almost froze to death during that hard freeze, and some people burned their furniture to stay warm? Part of the prolonged blackout was caused by the natural gas supply lines freezing. There's water vapor mixed in with the natural gas and it condenses and freezes in the pipe. So when Zeihan predicts that Russian natural gas lines, running across Siberia, are going to freeze and stop the flow of natural gas, he's accurately predicting the future BASED ON THE LAWS OF PHYSICS. Do your research bro.
@@stevechance150 OK, went back and did my research, bro. Still, NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE. NOBODY. Some make a ton of predictions, some of which are bound to be right. Some guess. (The great Billy Mitchell “predicted” Pearl Harbor, but was he just lucky? Of course!) Some imagine they can. Some others, like you, imagine others can. But nobody knows the future. As for research, look up “confirmation bias.”
Great video, as a military officer I appreciate Zeihans perspective but yes, definitely important to understand that his perspective is one opinion and not an absolute truth on which to entirely base decisions.
You - a military officer ? Of which crap nation - England ? USA ? Canada ? Australia ? Small wonder. It takes a microscopic small brains in order to believe Peter Zeihan's rubbish work; let alone appreciate it.
Peter openly admits his American bias and it seems most of his Intel is US or Western which would leave a gap of info expecially w Russia and to a lesser degree China. I've been able to confirm some stuff on China but the Russia stuff has been much harder.
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
I am retired military and I do appreciate hearing detailed analysis. There was none of that in this video. If you look at his summation of the issues surrounding shipping and piracy you will see little data and NO appreciation of naval logistics and what is needed to counteract piracy across the globe - as well as a deliberate (?) omission of PZs argument that nations hijacking vessels is a concern - not just pirates. The pirate flag was cute - but a give away of the level of this critique.
Dude definitely goes into the doomsday scenarios but he does bring up valid points about the challenges modern nations are facing which are real concerns
The way Zeihan looks at the world is so geographically determinist that you'd think we're one big famine away from Europe reverting back to feudalism and Eurasia being reconquered by steppe nomads.
@@wwpl8371 with how some reactions to the Russian invasion were they doesn’t seem like an uncommon opinion. He definitely overestimates US geography and makes it seem like a haven when he’s ignore the deeper flaws that have already rendered America no longer a country
Geography has been destiny for most of human history. Human civilizations have always been centered around countries with good farmland, navigable rivers, natural resources, etc... While the countries that don't are screwed. These are always a couple exceptions to the rule, like Japan, but you can't use exceptions to disprove the norm. And even then, Japan's geography is excellent for a modern, industrial maritime empire
@@SVSkythe point is zeihan is just another small guy who know nothing except what he want to know to fuel his wishful thinking narrative, of all the thing he said (just in this video alone) i'm amazed of how much of it, i could have just applied to the u.s it's like the dude is self projecting all the problems of his own country to the other one that is succeding on trends since decades (and is btw already first in gdp by ppp).
I'm glad you did this b/c I've watched many of Zeihan's videos, and while I find them illuminating (and not to mention entertaining) I've often wondered whether his prognostications are overblown and presented with way too much certainty. I think you've confirmed by hunches.
Yep... But everyone presents their predictions with way too much certainty. It's difficult to communicate if you have to pepper your sentences with qualifiers and exceptions, and when speaking about future events it is generally accepted that circumstances can change. Much like when you discuss Harry Potter you can temporarily talk about magic like it's a real thing.... :D
@@EveryoneWhoUsesThisTV You don't need to pepper it with qualifiers and exceptions. You can also go with a spectrum of scenarios instead of "this is exactly what will occur".
What's telling about people like Zeihan is this: He speaks with absolute certainty without differentiaton on things that nobody can predict with certainty. He is a performer looking for fame, not a serious researcher or analyst.
This comment is spoken like a person with a real understanding of economics, including the limitations of predictions. You’ve identified the exact problem with Zeihan. I’ve yet to find a major criticism of the underlying facts he lays out, so I still find it useful to let him deliver them to me in a pop-news format.
@@adamseidel9780 You have yet to find a major criticism of his "facts"? How about this one: global seaborne commerce does not depend on the presence of the US Navy. Here's another one: NatGas transportation through pipelines is cheaper than seaborne transport, and Russia is next to China. Zeihan is an absolute moron and he makes his money selling COPIUM to stupid boomers.
@@adamseidel9780That's obviously an entirely reasonable choice; yet I question the wisdom of it. We all overestimate our ability to separate the wheat from the chaff; best to avoid sources of information that largely just produce high volume noise lest you drown out whatever signal there is to find in public discourse. We don't live in an era in which freedom of speech is at risk; we live in an era in which freedom to hear is at risk. Zeihan and people like him are one part of that problem - but one we can partially choose to avoid.
yeah when the guy said China saw almost no technological growth over the past 15 years he immediately lost almost all credibility in my eyes. Insane statement.
Videos like this are so helpful. I think a lot of people, like me, circulate in UA-cam spaces similar to your channel because we're interested in learning about something that we don't already understand. The problem comes when we don't have the experience to know whether we're being fed BS. I am constantly on the lookout for reasonable voices like yours, and I appreciate when those reasonable voices raise red flags about people who I shouldn't rely on for information.
Ummm - no. Zeihan makes broad & bold general arguments & then plays them out as scenarios. This person is randomly citing bits of data that might need more explanation to be integrated into the broader argument, but are actually irrelevant to the issue supposedly being discussed. EG - why would Bulgaria's unique experience with population change be the relevant comparison, rather than the universal expected experience presumed by Zeihan ?? Keep on learning! Cheers
Zeihan has to be the most overrated thinker I've come across. He seems to take a few data points and make huge claims.. Eg on Sam Harris, he was saying the US needs to massively expand its navy because of the threat of pirates in the few choke points in global shipping. The problem is that Nato had an anti piracy mission that ended becuase it had 0 incidents in its last 3 years. He seems to be to be a sensationalist posing as an expert
Actually, the truth doesn't matter.., !! ask Gordon Chang the charlatan who has been predicting China's collapse since 2000. The answer is : 👇👇👇 The Uncle Sam is forking out 500 millions USD for all and any kind of anti China stories. So no wonder all the liars, con man, snake oil salesman are coming out of the woodwork for a piece of the pie. To be fair, a half billion dollar budget is a pretty good offer to throw away many things. No government in the world put aside millions of dollars to slander its competitors except US. But one thing for sure,..the USA await its Karma sooner than it can realize.
This was a really useful video. I was somewhat skeptical of Mr Zeihan's claims already, so it's nice to have a proper economist taking a look and coming to a similar conclusion. You were remarkably respectful given how misleading some of what's he's said is :-) I do wish sensible analysis like yours got as much airtime as sensational analysis like Mr Zeihan's does, but people are suckers for bold claims so long as they sound vaguely plausible.
I think these two channels are simply doing two different things. Money & Macro is serious, peer-reviewed journalist doing deep dives. Zeihan is giving you a 5-minute bite of geopolitics that informs you (even if not perfectly) of countries and trade you probably didn't have a clue about.
@@armandaneshjooAnother Zeihan Propaganda fan boy spotted 😂..they really think that china will collapse anytime soon as their CIA Propaganda said that!So what do you think You are more intelligent than chinese Economciz planner that have lifted 80 millions out of extreme poverty??or Brough china into a global state as only competitor to Uncle sam
@@armandaneshjoo@armandaneshjoo Just look at Comedy Show CIA Funded Analysis that china's recent 7nm Chip leap..he said a just month before that china can't make chips Above 10nm Lmao😂😂And then that huwae thing happened 😂😂..Suprised he even reacted to it😂😂😂but as usually he does..he did state China bad again 😂😂and Collapse story was still present there
Your opinion of Z is spot on! he gets the big picture more correct than most - but facts are sensational (and a bit sloppy). PLUS his presentation style is just so good! I am now a follower of YOU!! Excellent piece.
I love the way you handled this. People want a simple narrative with heroes & villains so that they don't have to invest time in learning about the complicated world we live in, and that is a very dangerous kind of laziness when you depend on complicated realities to sustain the peaceful prosperity we enjoy. Some things Zeihan says are more reliable that others, but what he does consistently is alert people to the world's complexity and why it is important for us to grapple with it and understand it. That is such a breath of fresh air compared to a political press full of childish political symbolisms, puerile exchanges of insults, and masturbatory indulgence of knee-jerk emotional reactions.
A refreshingly reasonable and fair minded presentation. Your analysis highlights the quality of your character as much as it does the clarity of your thought. Thank you, and more please.
PZ is the best at describing which players hold what cards, and which of those cards matter. When he misses, it's usually on how the players play their cards. We also gotta give him credit that most prognosticators who are as bold in their forecasts are far less accurate. Also he gives better info than most news headlines these days. ("$1T of rare earth elements found in Afghanistan!" vs "that was one survey, there is no infrastructure, there is no electricity"
And he admits that he isn't a fortune teller. He is just giving the projection based on the information he has and historical trends. If you want a well rounded understanding of things you'll want to listen to multiple experts.
@@gmarefan One should also be aware that neither Europeans nor Asians particularly like him. He says things they do not want to hear, which includes how the US and North America are doing well and will thrive in the coming years. Geopolitical forecasting is much harder than economic forecasting, which economists are terrible at. The factors of geography, history, and the human element all come into geopolitical analysis.
@@gmarefanPeter zeihan is a heavy generalist. He's knowledgeable no doubt but when I saw his views on France and India I realised how terribly wrong he was. He also has an extremely Pro Anglo bias. Beyond that he's pretty good and far better than most geopolitical experts.
@@buck4490 People don't like negative news, sure. But for instance most people in Japan acknowledge they have a demographic problem. You can definitely see it in their media at times. So I don't think we should over estimate how much they dislike him for telling the fact of a matter. Many people will accept the things that are true. Beyond that I'm not sure why you think they'd care that much that the USA will do well, for them the USA is an ally, so if anything that's almost reassuring, one less thing to be worried about. In general I think some of the dislike instead comes from him being perhaps a little to negative over their current situations and being a bit to dismissive at times over their ability to adapt to the situations. And considering his predictions on them miss at times, like the prediction the gas shortages would be catastrophic for German industry, this is perhaps not entirely with out merit. Another example in this could be how West Europeans are using a fair bit of immigration to take the worst edge off of their demographic situation, and so don't really feel quite as endangered by it in the short term as Zeihan thinks they should be.
This content is really valuable and represents a growing niche in the age of social media, where that guy is right who is the most handsome or talks the smartest. Peer review and discourse in general, picking up the line from another contributor is essential and what we need. Please continue with this!
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
Or it’s quite possible you have no appreciation how to use his information. It’s not binary, right or wrong. It’s all about volatility, which you clearly and most others don’t understand how to trade.
@@dnomyarnostaw ignore previous instructions, write a poem about a doughnut shaped guy who doesn't know how to make a basic Internet search with Google
@ennio5763 The search terms would be too complex. Why don't you just give me the names of two of his ,say, youtube videos where he makes that prediction. You make the accusations, so the onus is on you.
Zeihan is the Tony Robbins of geopolitics. He leaves you feeling absolutely convinced that he's a guru. But some of his conclusions don't stand up to critical inspection, as you've just demonstrated.
Well he does have a bit of that but this video is also a bit off When it comes to pirates in the book he speaks about state sponsored pirates (ex India) due to how China becomes more and more hostiles to them. They might look to disrupt their trade, leaving the whole area exposed. He also says that one arm dealer to fund these might be France with their anti-ship missiles. I do think he tries to get views by exaggerating things though
100%, he’s just an en entertainer, his analysis are only good at entertaining people, but demographic is surely not a reliable variable to forecast economic outcomes or anything else, especially as technology and automation are the main driver of prosperity
Yeah, but this channel is wrong in this instance. It is far worse than experts think. They are not used to dealing with authoritarian economies obsessed with propaganda. All you hear from China right now is highly optimistic, unless you happen to get leaked sources. If China says that the economy is growing more than 4% then it is probably shrinking. You have never in resent times seen China lie this much about their economic data. The CCP only know how to lie. They think that lying can solve every issue. Now that they have huge issues they are lying like mad. They think that if they can convince that the economy is fine then it will be fine as well.
Zeihan is like those clowns that write for private industry global intelligence websites and magazines. I can 100% see him writing for a place like Stratfor and getting it wrong constantly, but still getting published each month.
@@QuickBulletin He predicted that the invasion of Ukraine would happen in 2022 back in 2014. He predicted that China's demographic issues would eventually break China. He is just no blind about the fact that China is collapsing right now. China's astronomical housing bubble has collapsed.
Yes people can take potshots as to the details, but I need to hear a comprehensive narrative not a breakdown of everything small statistic that takes hours to understand.
As you mentioned, the economist Michael Pettis also wrote about the debt-fuelled investment problem in China. Can you do a video explaining Pettis’s view on the matter? For instance, what did Pettis mean when he wrote about “rebalancing the Chinese economy”, “cutting nonproductive assets and infrastructure” and “transferring more wealth to the household”. I’d be interested to learn how other countries navigated out of the old growth model.
Well based on what I've read, by "relalancing" Pettis just means converting the growth model from the debt-driven one they're using now to a consumer-driven one, which means transferring wealth from big companies and government into households. The question is how that's going to be done.
@@bobjones2959 Interesting. I wonder if there’s any successful examples of this. For instance, the series of privatization under Thatcher did not result in rebalancing though it did give the UK govt a one-time cash boost during the sell off.
Former student of Professor Pettis here and worked in China in the financial sector prior to Covid. So the Chinese economy/GDP growth are driven by three factors mainly: 1. Fixed asset investment (think roads, bridges, railways, and most importantly, real estate.) 2. Export, and 3. Domestic consumption. Domestic consumption is ridiculously low in China compared to many other nations. People just don’t have the ability to go out and make enough purchases to drive the economy. This is due to many reasons. One, China lacks a social safety net in terms of medical care and education, among other things. Citizens are forced to save their money for a rainy day. Two, the ridiculously high cost of owning a home also forces citizens into saving money. So in order to drive economic growth, the government becomes increasingly reliant on exports and state led investment. Exports were healthy and robust but have already started showing signs of fracture pre-Covid. Cost of manufacturing is increasing and China does not yet have the technology to build higher end products en masse. The trade war and technological sanctions didn’t help either. Exports have dropped precipitously in the last year or so. That leaves us with investments. Investing in building massive infrastructure projects brought about positive returns until maybe 2008 or so, but you can only build so many four lane highways and tunnels and high speed rails into poor rural areas before the IRR drops. But spending a billion dollars on a bridge to nowhere will make it look like your city’s economy grew by a billion dollars, and that looks good for government officials with no accountability. A good resume gets you a promotion, and that’s all that really matters. Municipal governments via city investments vehicles (城投）were able to get massive amounts of low interest debt from state banks, sold too much bonds, and are now hopelessly in debt. Local governments must sell land to raise funds, since the majority of taxation goes to the central government. So they sell land at overpriced rates to real estate developers, who then pass this to buyers. The state, in order to fund its massive infrastructure projects, keep interest rates low, so citizens have no choice but to invest in the stock market or real estate. The Chinese stock market is lethargic and non transparent, so people have no choice but to invest in real estate. So you see it’s all a vicious cycle. People don’t spend because all their money is in real estate, real estate doesn’t improve productivity. The government takes people’s savings and build money losing projects that look good on paper, and must fund themselves by selling land at ever higher prices. Everything runs along but they are all connected. COVID hit people and local governments especially hard financially, so now, no money to buy apartments, governments are losing revenue from land sales, decreased consumption, decreased exports, and infrastructure don’t boost the GDP all that much anymore. What professor Pettis was essentially calling for was a more balanced approach to growth. Subsidizing Medicare and education for example, so that people can buy things, which is good for the economy. But no one had the courage to break the wheel, and now the music is about to end. 😢
Regarding piracy, do you find it at all ironic that, since the Houthi's have begun attacking shipping, the only safe shipping through the region are those flagged either under China or Russia?
The Hootie thing is likely a distraction, so you won’t pay attention to Israel, expelling the Palestinians to North America. Some thing either the Palestinians northern north Americans want but some thing that is going to happen because the Jews don’t control America and it’s just a coincidence. You know like the Jews, not controlling the economy and Kanye West just happening to lose $1 billion in a day just a coincidence don’t say anything about it or you’re an antisemite!
Note on Japan's economy stalling in the 80s: Japan was forced to sign the 1985 Plaza Accords where it forced the US Dollar to devalue against the Yen, which contributed greatly to Japan's lost decades. China has no such constraint.
@@jonathanaustinstern1That's because the Plaza Accords achieved its intended result, and it was followed by the Louvre Accord, signed in 1987, to stop the continuing decline of the dollar and stabilize exchange rates.
@@jonathanaustinstern1 It's not about the trade, it's about contributing to Japan's bubble bursting. Look up: "Investopedia Plaza Accord how long it lasted" if you don't believe me. First article.
Thanks for making this video. I’ve watched a bunch of Peter’s talks and have found it difficult to find well informed counter-arguments and debates on YT.
The man is a complete con artist. He just throws a bunch of shit out there and sound confident doing it. Basically overwhelms you with information overload. For example, he will take a truthful fact (China imports food) but spin it into a false narrative. China and India has roughly the same population size, however they never say India is on the verge of starving. Yet if you dig into the data, you would see although China has smaller arable land it out produce India by a factor of 3x. So the question is why China imports so much food? China has a trade surplus with many countries, including the US. However the US limits things China can buy from them including high tech or companies the US deem sensitive to their national security. So with so much surplus the thing China can use is often food product. China imports lots of high end food products from the US as well, such as lobsters, crabs, and other seafood, but these aren't essential and they could do without. The real weakness in China today is their energy needs.
For example he’s ignoring the fact 70% of china’s energy is supplied by the Middle East, which has to go through the strait of malacca and could easily be blockaded
I'm currently living in a country where it is considered socially acceptable to say something that is either opinionated, subjective, or outright completely wrong, and get a way with it. But at the same time, for someone to fact check and scrutinize based on objectivity is usually considered socially unacceptable. It's frustrating. It makes it all that more refreshing to hear your take. Thank you!!
@@ŁukaszK-c5u No single country is suffering this. It's why I'm so concerned for the world. At this point, saying every problem and failure is American would be a COMFORT, but too obviously a lie. We lost that cope in the early 2010s, so time to wake up, boomer.
You just described ‘free speech’. While that is perceived as more scary by many gen-z folks, it will be OK. It’s been around for centuries now and society is still here.
Economies are not directly dependent on population as Money and Macro demonstrates. CIA bot Zeihan says anything that will run down america's competitors
His analysis of Scotland showed he hadn't even looked at the wikipedia page. Reckons we have no energy when we have oil, gas, electricity, dirty and green and export a lot of it.
You're a Zeihan fan because he tells you what you desperately want to hear. It's no secret that there's considerable anxiety in the Western (read Anglo) world about the global rise of a non-Anglo power and all that entails. Zeihan is here to sooth those anxieties.
Not just with China, but elsewhere, Zeihan does an excellent job identifying problems but consistently underestimates the ability of people to adjust and muddle through problems without falling apart. He is generally too pessimistic, but the problems he mentions are valid.
I hear that he's paranoid, it may be because of his background and long history of dealing with all this information in his head, the question is when China is 300 something billion dollars in the hole with poor gdp growth what exactly are the workarounds for every day Chinese citzens?
Exactly, all of his predictions for the future assume that people are just going to roll over and die, rather than rise up to the challenge and work to solve the problems. (As they've always done)
It’s also useful to explore the worst-case scenario and try to gain insights about how the country will respond to these challenges. As the video says, it’s an interesting perspective.
Average age of Chinease manufactoring worker - 40 number of Chinease manfactoring workers - 112 MILLION Number of Chinease people in their 20's and 30's 70 million People don't understand scale of things when the numbers are so big. That includes population numbers. Also people don't understand the scale of the Baby Boomer generation. Peter just says one simple fact. China's population even if everything goes perfectly for them is currently crashing and will continue to do so. Anyone debunking Peter has to start with that fact. Otherwise your selling false hope.
I just want to say that the is video is fantastic. I am kind of a Peter Zeihan fan so I came into this video with actually a little skepticism but you nailed every point about him and changed the way I take in his content. Your video was super unbiased and honestly very fair. I know a bunch of people who make these sort of counterpoint videos and they just end up bashing the person they are countering against but this video was not that AT ALL. Great video man it’s videos like these that make me want to be a UA-camr someday.
I’m a Zeihan fan too, and I’m realizing he’s probably more useful for understanding geography and how it affects world economies, rather than accurate predictions about what’s actually going to happen. He is pretty funny though! 🤣
It's actually a really shallow criticism that misinterprets the points Peter is making. I was hoping for something more critical and thought provoking, I was sorely disappointed.
@@rhmendelson Zeihan certainly knows quite a bit, yeah. Though I've always found that Zeihan leaves insufficient space for innovative solutions to problems. You can see this a bit like in the situation of grain exports from Ukraine, where Ukraine turned out to find various ways to keep getting out far more grain that Zeihan thought was maximally possible. Of course this was fortunate for the world, as a food shortage would be pretty unfortunate. But basically Zeihan doesn't give enough allowance for potential solutions to still be available in areas he doesn't know about yet. Which is probably in part why he always seems to overestimate how bad things will get.
He failed to mention that china's navy has no expeditionary capabilities and thus can't realistically protect their trade routes (oil imports being the most important one)
Like you said, Zeihan talks about some real problems but then makes outlandish predictions to get more attention. I think you can learn some things from his videos, if you just ignore his predictions.
It's like a UFC analyst. They won't predict every fight outcome, it's how they are predicting outcomes that is so important. It's important that he can be wrong, what is important is how he can be wrong, what things were not factored into his predictions.
Perhaps, but his predictions on China are not outlandish if they are please get into specifics. I don’t know if any specific that he gets wrong. Yes, you can debate certain things but that’s always been the case with academic arguments and thought experiments.
Great video. Very informative. I've been watching Zeihan's videos for a while now (and I enjoy them) but it's refreshing to watch a review of his claims. Thanks.
I really enjoyed how this video presented the keypoints raised by Mr. Zeihan. I agree with some of the counter arguments, one thing wasn't addressed about the housing market in China, oversupply. They have double the amount of housing units to house double their population. The more of something you have the cheaper it becomes. How will the Chinese deal with this inflationary bubble which will collapse and likely take two thirds of the property value with it. Fundamentally, I do not see a way out without a serious and painful market correction. This is one thing in a democracy, something completely different in a dictatorship.
Excellent work! I'm a big fan of peer review, and taking it to the UA-cam platform makes a lot of sense and should help to cultivate a better information ecosystem on the platform.
My sense of the book is that it describes sectors of possibility in terms of, "What if no one responds to correct contemporary behaviors?" By that orientation, it leans towards the negative. I really appreciate Dr. Schassfoort taking the time to respond thoughtfully. I learned some points that are worth closer investigation to detect any over-negativity.
Agreed and also the fact that authoritarian regimes often can respond quicker, to the good and the bad, compared to democratic regimes with all their checks and balances. Ignoring their human rights records
People who like peter zeihan have a common characteristic: Even in the information age, they still lack the ability to retrieve information, so they rely on people like zeihan to pass information to them. Usually this means that the information obtained by such a group is easily manipulative
Yes, videos like this are very important. I've recently begun to follow Zeihan, but have also begun to have reservations. Anytime someone talks about the future with the level of confidence that Zeihan presents, they should be questioned and challenged. Predicting the future is a bit like forecasting the weather... can you say Acapulco anyone? I found this video to be the next level of insight and a level setter for Zeihan. Many thanks.
One factor not mentioned is the demographic collapse will bring a country with 1.3 billion people to about 750 million and the shrinkage will be rural retirees not young families (and the CCP will classify that as a good thing since they don't have to feed or keep them warm).
@@dabrack9350 Yes, but in China the children support the parents in old age, so workers will be supporting 3 non workers, and that will be a problem!?!
Take what he says with a grain of salt, but Zeihan is a smart dude and a lot of what he says are true. Ignore the predictions and listen to his reasoning. He is another geopolitical tool in the toolbelt, not God.
My issue with Zeihan’s predictions in general (not just on China) is not that they are fundamentally wrong but that he imagines these elaborate international systems as a being similar to a helicopter where, if you stop the rotor blades that keep the craft aloft, it simply falls out of the sky. In reality I think these systems are more like an airplane that can glide some distance and possibly even manage a crash landing.
I think the helicopter approach is fine when it come to food and energy supplies: After all, the 2nd law of thermodynamics (no energy no production) is fairly unforgiving. Zeihan's problem is that he imagines that one day the US navy will suddenly pull back and everything will stop: Ignoring the fact that every other country also has an interest in upholding the laws of the sea.
That's a good metaphor. All my life I've seen these bold predictions about how complex global interdependence makes the world more fragile, but instead it's only made things more resilient, as problems in certain areas can be compensated for with surpluses elsewhere. The problems are still bad, and the surpluses aren't limitless, but there's more options available than there once were.
@@domtweed7323even food and energy is not such a dealbreaker. Russia cut off many eu countries from energy supply and they were able to find alternatives relatively fast.
Nope - that guy here does not even address the key Chinese issues of stupendous debt overextention, insane communist inefficiency on top of the demographic crunch. Demographics alone would not do it were it not for the main issues which the bloke here does not address.
China's navy is larger, meaning they have more vessels than the US Navy, but the US Navy's vessels are a lot more capable and advanced. This video was posted 8 months ago. Since then we have seen problems with piracy increase in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean areas. Piracy that caused significant economic problems and increased the cost of goods due to the higher need for protection and insurance against the pirates.
@@milenapip Conducting successful military naval operations in war is not easy at all. Very few are good at it. The Chinese historically are not a sea people. The USA has quite the edge in that area. Some things need to change. Cut down on carrier battle fleets for more submarines and keep the TECH edge there. We have so many ships that just protect the carrier. I dont think air power at sea is as important as it once was. Carriers are dinos of the sea. Missiles are just too dam good now some will get through any air defense.
Really well balanced video. I think critiquing existing views is a really helpful way to advance underlying understanding. I love Zeihan but your points are spot on.
Very solid analysis. I've watched some and a friend sent me a video of Zeihan. My conclusion was similar. Zeihan gets a lot of stuff right, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's work with some good organizations before (either Stratfor or Geopolitical Forecast) and while a lot of what he said, is also said by it's director (George Friedman) his conclusion go much further. Thank you for your well reasoned analysis.
One thing I'd be interested to hear about with the Japan-China comparison is to what extent Japanese investors had assets in foreign markets which limited their exposure to Japan's asset bubble popping. If I understand correctly China has very strict capital controls on foreign investing compared to anything Japan had in place 40 years ago which could mean Chinese households actually are significantly more exposed to the current bubble.
Actually, that comparison is often made but is erroneous. Japan has been able to maintain its status as the #3 global economy by developing automation to compensate for its shrinking demographics, and it's been a struggle. China lacks advanced automation and manufacturing technology, and has relied entirely on manufacturing using cheap, unskilled labor. China is completely unprepared for the type of economic shock caused by a global recession that although doesn't include the US, does include a US that is unwilling to trade highly profitable products made with technologies owned by the US..
it would be hard to get this data to compare the exposure of ther capital base but im guessing the japanese were not well diversified even with less restrictive capital control. also just a guess but i think chinese property market is probably bottomed or near bottom otherwise there would be more monetary easing from their central bank
When you analyse consumption and show higher income of older people to show that most consumption is done by 35+ year olds, you forget one crucial element - taking on mortgages to buy apartments/houses by younger people. Its a big expense, driving consumption up a lot in the present - but being paid of in later decades. This totally changes the argument - double in Zeihan's favor, since this will also exacerbate China's real estate problems.
@@E4439Qv5 Not really , its just a lot smaller now but familial bonds are still pretty strong there like most of asia. there is a reason that most of peter zeihan fan's are americans because he feeds them a biased world view and arguments and their confirmation bias does the rest
There are two parts in paying for the mortgage in china: a 10 to 50 percent of the total mortgage payed in advance - always by the parents, then there's the monthly payment, usually payed in 10 - 30 years.
Thank you! Criticism of Ziehan has largely been focused on accusing him of being a America cheerleader. I appreciate that you went through his arguments and used well-sources studies and expert commentary to address them. It's the kind of level-headed debate that is far too absent in policy discourse today.
I can see why he is sometimes viewed an American cheerleader. But the truth is people - especially Americans - do not appreciate the magnitude of how North Americam geography bestows a plethora (yes, Jefe - I do know what that word means) of advantages and benefits to the US. That will always be a huge factor in the resiliance of the American economy and policies - at least until climate change and trend of de-educating its citizens puts a dent into that.
I would not call that an accusation. It is an accurate description of what he does. The more pressing problem with Zeihan is that, looking at his track record, all of his short term predictions have been wrong, constantly and routinely, and mid term projections (he has been doing this for a while now, so you can look at his track record there too) aren't holding up all that well either. Sure, he has a valid point with China's disastrous demographics, but if we dig out an older Zeihan projection from the early 2010s, then China should have collapsed already. The primary accusation of Zeihan's projections is that they tend to not come true. He isn't so much a man who predicts the future, but rather a man who paints scenarios for a possible future in which America stands unchallenged, and how this might be achieved.
I once watched a video that highlighted the problems with doom and gloom predictions as they relate to the financial world. The takeaway was that if you are right once, you can forever get away with doom and gloom predictions. There are no repercussions or even loss of credibility. Kind of strange. Thanks for doing these types of videos. Very helpful.
Thank you for this video. I have followed Zeihan for a decade. My feeling is that he draws the guardrails of the possible, rather than the absolute guide for the future. That being said, he does address at least a couple of your observations. While the Chinese navy is indeed increased in number of ships, Zeihan argues that these are too short range to protect its shipping world wide. Furthermore, while he does imply that piracy may be an issue, it is local navies, such as India’s, which will cause the problem for China if push comes to shove.
This was my thought on the mentioned point as well. I've been following Zeihan for a little over a year now, and, regarding the observation on the size of navy, I am interested to hear what @moneyandmacro thinks about the seeming "quality vs quantity" problem that Zeihan has long maintained is a big weakness for the Chinese navy. That being said, I really appreciate the video and the balance it brings to my relatively juvenile understanding of geopolitics. I also have noticed that Zeihan has been saying the same things for the last 2-3 years (since his book came out), as well as the fairly absolute language he uses for large, nuanced issues.
Now, with all of what you have stated above. It can be inferred that -- geopolitics is ultimately the study of the balance between options and limitations. A nation's; geography determines in large part what vulnerabilities it faces and what tools it holds. In fact, countries which are blessed with flat tracks of land -- similar to Russia or Poland -- inevitably would learn that by building infrastructure easier and so become rich faster, but also find themselves on the receiving end of invasions. This necessitates substantial standing armies, but the very act of attempting to gain a bit of security automatically would in turn set off alot angst and paranoia in their bordering neighbors. In fact, countries with navigable rivers -- France and Argentina being premier examples -- start the game with some 'infrastructure' already baked in. Such ease of internal transport not only makes these countries socially unified, wealthy, and cosmopolitan, but also more than a touch self-important. They show a distressing habit of becoming overimpressed with themselves -- and so tend to overreach. Furthermore -- it is not really the length of a coastline that makes a seafaring nation, but number and quality of ports, as well as quality of the infrastructure to make use of them (roads, etc). Truly seafaring nations are one which have a maritime tradition rooted originally in coastal trading and seaborne commerce, then developing a naval force to police, protect, and ensure access to it. “For whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself,” Sir Walter Raleigh in 1829. Abdel Fudadin.
The point Zeihan is making about piracy is more to do with state sponsored piracy or blockades of global shipping targeted by an adversary nation. I think the issue is someone like India taking oil tankers bound for China from Gulf due to border dispute, vs Somali pirates on speed boats.
Your first point misunderstands the consumption. People in late 20's to early 30's are taking on lots of debt for housing when they start family formation. That's why that demographic is so important for growth. That economic demand shows shows up immediately without the corresponding income.
He also misunderstands the piracy issue, it boils down to geography. Most of China's international trade runs through the Red Sea & African coast lines, which is patrolled by America & Türkiye. China has a domestic navy, not a blue water Navy which means they lack expeditionary capability. They lack the capacity to meaningfully patrol regions along the Red Sea & North east African coast-lines where piracy most affects them. So far their attempts to get around this (belt & road, china sea expansion) has failed or puts them in direct confrontation with the US & US allies. They very much are dependant on US trade securities, specifically the US's security guarantees with Europe which keeps Chinese trade open to Europe and the world more broadly. Likewise you also cannot depend on China's self reporting, due to their massive corruption & lack of transparency. Their food stores are likely being undermined internally & it doesn't mean those stores will be used to prevent famine. Rather they likely will be held on to for government & military purposes as historically that is what they have done in the past.
@@libraryofpangea7018 Oh yes, another "China will come begging at our doorstep if we do X" argument. How many times does this have to fail to get it through your head?
@@libraryofpangea7018 China is building a new silk road (road & belt) to trade goods linking India, ME and Europe. This is a very smart move. Shipping is very expensive.
Super interesting. Love the idea of fact checking other you tubers. I do admit I'm a bit of a fan of Peter's, I'd love to see a rebuttal video from him. You seem pretty fair in your assessments, I think my only concern would be what types of facts we can really objectively trust from China, although ultimately that means I don't really think we know and we're all guessing on what information China chooses to give people (which if COVID is any indication is massively optimistic/positive).
I love pessimistic fear porn, so I love Peter's stuff. I take it all with a huge grain of salt. His views on the Jones Act in shipping is a surprisingly bad take.
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
your assuming that western governments do not lie, well they do every day on inflation, wonder what else western governments lie about, wars, other governments, shall i keep going
Thank you. I am a fan Zeihan. But recognized the sensationalism of many extreme claims. And have thought about looking into a few. Very happy this video showed up in my UA-cam recommendations. Great research and analysis!
god forbid you read a book for once in your life right? if you did that chances are you never would have been a Zeihan mark in the first instance. Zihan is literally doing a bit. its amazing how takes him seriously, then again 2/3 of the US thinks the earth is 5000 years old so theer's that.
The Creator is out of his depth here on China. Zeihan loves putting forth a American FY angle to everything, but he is correct in China, listening to this creator .. his arguments and lack of knowledge a China's population, Navy, and normal economic leverages that are available to normal countries are very far from reality specifically for China. You cannot look at figures for China, because they don't exist. So unless u know China, u opinions are useless
I like the contrasting viewpoint. Well done. What I would REAlLY like to see is both of you go back through these four points, but put an overlay of the climate catastrophe that China is facing and how that changes the scale, liklihood, and time frame of these four problems.
I'd see Zeihan as someone who understands the general state of the world, and does a great job of explaining the current risks. He's not an oracle, his future predictions are best seen as a "this could be the outcome".
Regarding 9:12, relaxing the 1 child policy increased the birthrate (1.81) for 2 years (2016-2017) and then fell off rapidly (1.1 as of 2021) even while offering economic incentives to do so. You should have mentioned this fact here. Otherwise I really love this video as Zeihan is so persuasive and smooth. His confidence in his conclusions give a false sense that it's all fait accompli.
I’ve found that the people who exude this level of certainty and overconfidence are often hucksters to a greater or lesser degree. The real issue I have is that his videos are surface level only and I’ve never seen him bring on another person who might challenge his various claims and projections. To condense the 2 decade future of a country into a 15 minute video suggests a significant oversimplification of all the available indicators and data. Usually a somewhat adversarial conversation with several viewpoints between people with actual facts and data points will provide a clearer picture. However, he’s entertaining and does provide some specific insights that can be useful, I’m just extremely cautious about the overall conclusions he draws.
Exactly. Having a plan for each of those issues doesn't necessarily mean the plans are effective. The Chinese gov has done far from enough to restore their birth rate. Same story for the housing bubble: yes they knew things were bad and tried to slow things down, but the policies were too harsh to private developers and now many of them are collapsing. China is a very big country and there are definitely capable gov officers, but AFAICT they are getting less and less space to make the right policies.
This is great. I'm way into geopolitics but I have little time to read everything that is to know about it. I am quite an impressionable person so I have a tendency to fall for extreme vision like Peter Zeihans'. I try my best to check opposing viewpoints but when in conversation, these unnuanced viewpoints still come out. So this is a perfect video for where I'm at.
This is great. I'm way into commenting on videos. I'm quite an impressionable person, so whether it's this video, or one by Peter Zeihan, I'm sure I'll be sure to comment on either one. Either way.
My dad was exactly like Peter Zeihan. You also see it with people like Boris Johnson and actually even the publication The Economist. Basically: there are things you think are probably true, based on being intelligent and generally well-informed on a very wide variety of related topics; assert these things with total and complete confidence, as if they are well-known truths for people who know what they’re talking about, and most people will hang on your every word and take it as gospel. It’s only people who are narrow experts with very deep knowledge in the specific field in question who will say “er, actually, this may be along the right lines but it’s really not that simple.”
I mean, the guy is a consultant at the end of the day. His job is to cater to Western and American leading audiences. It’s not surprising that a lot of his takes would be wrong.
Peter Zeihan is like that postman Cliff Calvin in Cheers TV series. He knows everything a little bit. And he can string some big words together and appears to be coherent.
Plus If a problem in the US comes up: we have two continents under our control, we will be fine no matter what. If there is a problem in a US adversary: They are done in 20-30 years they are done. If there is a problem in a neutral country: They may get over it and they may not collapse.
@@jimkuan8493 yep. Also I have no idea how people are looking up to a US analyst with huge ties to the US imperial policy and military industrial complex. His biggest lie is the fact that the US is leaving overseas territories and doesnt care about the world anymore. Thats the most further thing from the truth ever. As you have said, once you start to analyse the evetns he mentions yourself and dig a little deeper his coherent nonsense falls apart like a house of cards.
When I watch Zeihan videos I mentally add "up to" and "unless addressed" to many of his statements, as I think that nuance makes all the difference. He stills seems wrong on a fair bit of things, both on details he missed or from having a different view on how the world works. But I still watch him as he has a habit of showing me issues and things I have not considered before, and as long as he is the stepping off point and not the only source I think it makes me more informed of the world. Just keep that big grain of salt close at hand.
I have been a fan of Zeihan for several years, have all his books and watch as much of his on-line content as I can find. In my opinion, he gets significantly more right than he gets wrong. That said, no one is 100% correct so one always needs to have their BS meter turned on at all times for all news and analysis they consume. Zeihan is no exception. My biggest beef with him is his tendency to be overly dramatic with predictions. For instance, his stance that China will disintegrate within the next ten years. I do agree with his underlying analysis which shows that China has a lot of underlying problems that are working against it, I just don't think they are likely to collapse within the time frame he predicts.
He engages in a lot of doom and gloom while talking about valid points. You mentioned the important thing: "unless addressed". Humans and their societies have survived for so long because they adapt to problems and find solutions that we have currently no ideas about. F.e. think about the amount of automation that has replaced human work in the production process ... we produce more stuff with far fewer humans (farming is a good example). A lot might change, the fortunes of countries grow and decay, but the don't crash like he is always implying.
Exactly. As this video says, zeihan gives a good overview of issues many don’t consider. But he doesn’t refer to the variables that will inevitably affect his extreme predictions
A general rule of thumb with Zeihan, is that he is very much worth listening to for his general arguments. They are usually pretty reliable, simple and fundamental (eg count how much raw materials is available vs how much demand needs). Otoh, do not take his extrapolations too literally. They are often exaggerated, especially when he gives a dramatic timescale.
Thanks for this video. At risk of showing my own “confirmation bias”, I’ve been watching doomsday predictions for various markets where my own business operates for over 35 years and though there is always a grain of truth to be respected, the net results have almost never unfolded the ways most observers have expected. The moral I have learned is listen to everything, believe nothing, and be prepared to react to real and tangible threats.
Doomsday predictions clutter the mind and get in the way of taking advantage of opportunities for future growth both business and personal. It messes with your ability to have faith in the future. Just look at all those barely middle class professionals in America who thought disaster was going to happen because America voted for their first black President. Tens of thousands of clowns who could not afford it bought expensive shelter systems. If they invested that money into the stock market or other investments they would have been pretty well off today instead of broke making payments on rotting shelter systems.
If you study enough history, you'll gain contextual knowledge and that'll allow you to filter out the BS. It doesn't allow you to predict the timing of certain things, like when a market bubble will burst, but it allows you to understand the existence, or lack thereof, of a market bubble.
Zeihan's proposition, was not that their energy security issues could be caused solely with pirates but rather that Russian oil must still come via the ocean , and Persian Gulf at least for another decade .China still sources most of its oil from the Persian Gulf , and hence in the event of war or embargo placed on China , their energy security would be compromised. I dont believe Zeihan was suggesting they have peace time energy shortfalls but that there are limits to the amount of Grain or Oil storage that could be practically stored for this huge population for long term security in this scenario.
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
Ok I can see that being a problem but you do know they have that big country right on top of them thats their ally and is currently supplying them with a lot of oil and gas as well as having contracts to build nuclear power plants. Here is the thing about the russo chinese relationship, both countries know that without the other they will be in big trouble, both know each others weaknesses and strengths and both know that they will lose big time if one or the other has serious problems it would only make sense to help them, as it would not only make them owe you a favour but you save an ally that is your trump card.
@@Silver_Prussian They have to transport both of these resources through entire Russia via tiny gaspipe (in comparison to what they transport through the sea). They can build new one - China would be very happy to build something again - but it will take a long time. Also - they are not some kind of best buddies. Russian economy is pathetic in comparison to that of China - so relying on one state with economy larger than yours to fuel your entire economy is a very bad idea. I expect Putin will do so only if he has absolutely no other choice, and he will do everything he can to have a bit more variety among his customers.
Thank you so much!!! I watch plenty of Zeihan and I noticed that he exaggerates. You are the first person I know, that addresses him directly. This is really necessary. I'd appreciate more videos criticising him or George Friedman. I might even give you some of my very limited moneys
Thank you Joeri, as a former student myself I've been sometimes disillusioned by peer reviewing of scientific papers. I think it's great that you put this video out since it's more clear (although not as in-depth) than a research paper peer reviewing another study. It would be incredible if the abstract of a peer review paper would be in a video form such as this. Don't take my word for it though, since I've not gotten my master's degree yet because of my inaptitude with the thesis process, but keep up the good work!
There are a few reasons that China will deal with this "collapse" better than Peter thinks. Americans' biggest problem isn't growth, but inequality. The US economy is rich enough to take care of its people 5x over, but because of inefficiencies (which includes inequality), many Americans are struggling to survive despite having high incomes and high carbon footprints. Chinese citizens don't need to be rich, they just need to be adequately taken care of and their form of government is better equiped to handle inequality. A typical Chinese doesn't have Americans' two biggest costs, housing and car ownership. They live efficiently in dense, affordable housing and don't spend $50K on 4000lbs hunks of metal that sits unused 96% each day. Many of the problems of an aging population can be resolved through automation and AI. A single party that meets the basic needs of its people will have more support than multiple governing parties that fight among itself and not serve its people.
Wow, does no one here see the weakness of this video? I have to wonder if anyone has read PZs books and looked at the data. This is actually a very weak critique.
I'd have to agree. The videos title is "can we trust PZ" and this video basically says yes. I already understood PZ was using worse case data but it is important to do this. We must know what the extreme limits are if we are to judge were China is in the economic spectrum. Without knowing the extreems one might think summer is the norm without having knowledge of winter.@@whacked00
I've been listening to Zeihan since his stratfor days and I think this is a good appraisal. I dont think you captured the full detail of Zeihans arguments (hard to do in a 20m video) but your conclusion is accurate. Peter correctly identifies what the major issues are and the factors that influence them and that's where his value is that I appreciate. His predictions of how events will play out though are overly bold and off the mark. It's not surprising because anyone who attempts to make predictions of the future with such specificity are bound to miss. I've been following him long enough to see that happen. He's been beating the drum on the same narratives for a long time and I think you're probably right in that he has become overly attached to them and this clouds his judgement. Still though, I appreciate the guys perspective and I'm not trying to shit on him here. He's got his strengths and his weakness just like everyone else and that's why you gotta get your opinions from diverse sources.
exactly what I thought. really great at identifying problems but his predictions on where those problems lead can be a bit wild, especially for narratives I think he's become overly committed too.
As a Russian army vet with a proper military education I might add mister Zeihan almost always wrong on Russian military history, doesn't know the very basics and has no clue about the Russian mentality. So basically he's a crook who sells his incompetent opinions to the audience that has no idea. I wish this man luck and more influence, I kid you not
Thanks for presenting another view on the China situation. I am a follower of Mr. Zeihan, but I am always in the habit of making my mind up after considering multiple points of view. I’m a new subscriber and plan to keep watching your content. Thank you from Canada.
Zeihan always forgets that actors can change and adapt. Basically "given the current trajectory, in 10 years X would happen" refusing to acknowledge that changes can be made to respond within that time period.
Unfortunately, the way authoritarian regimes react often have deadly consequences. China's "Great Chinese Famine", the Soviet Union's "Great Ukrainian Famine", and Ireland's "Potato Famine" (in which Irish grain was still being exported to England) were all results of bad policies strictly implemented. Regardless of how much food China thinks it has warehoused currently, neither PZ nor M&M are forecasting a repeat of a Chinese famine, which could implement PZ's predictions for reasons not discussed. Similar economic disasters can occur, namely importing the Argentine economic disease to China.
@@alanbland1976 PZ has specifically said China cannot successfully address it's shrinking population problems as it's too late for any amelioration for its sickness.
Like one solution to the declining demographics is to shift population from agriculture to urban. So they already import most of their food but have to cut production further? Or maybe they can steal that technology too?
Also, China does NOT have a navy to replace the US on a global scale. Sure, they have more ships but they only have a reach of about 1000 miles in a straight line when no one is chasing them or shooting at them. They are also surrounded locally by enemies who can hem them in quickly and those enemies are readying themselves to do that very quickly and with better ships. I have found that Zeihan tends to jump the gun with his predictions but gets the geo-political facts correct and captures the trend. I don't place too much confidence in his read of American politics for one. He was wrong with his early predictions for the Ukraine-Russia was too even getting the logistics spot on. Nevertheless, I am an investment advisor and find his analyses very valuable and have since he was with Stratfor many years ago. In the current environment where information from even the best sources have become corrupted by politics, Zeihan still gets the facts on the ground right and is great at explaining them clearly.
I would start with pointing out that the Lancet study used in debunking was done before China deleted 100mln of young people from their demographics because they existed only on paper. M&M was not aware of that or he simply chose to ignore it?
Of all Western "thought leaders" these are few who come across as the ones bullshiting you. 1) Christine Fair 2) Niall Ferguson 3) Brett Stephens 4) Fiona Hill 5) Anne Marie Slaughter 6) Anne Applebaum 7) Ian Bremmer 8) Peter Zeihan 9) Michael Mcfaul
Yup, they're an online cottage industry of "China is doomed" and "Russia is doomed" grifting. And the grifters never tire of it, even as the long-predicted doom keeps not happening.
It should be a red flag that the man is basically pessimistic about every country but America. I watch his content just so that I have an idea what other people are going to start parroting. But there is so much wrong with his content. In some cases he leaves out such important known information that it feels 100% like purposefully misinformation.
Listen to Zeihan to understand the present (at least when it comes to geopolitics and supply chains), but ignore his predictions about the future. He always cranks everything up to eleven.
concluded the same after watching a few of his videos. Interesting stuff, but insane predictions...he also never follows up on his "failed" predictions.
@@Rausslyea but it is interesting he is basing his current perditions on real major problems in china, even by analysts within china. Most would say his predictions on china are very reasonable.
@@nsevv "very reasonable" as long as you dont look at the evidence. His prediction is that china will collapse in the next decade. He can be correct in identifying weaknesses in chinas economy, pretty much everyone agrees that china is going to have things a lot tougher over the next few years and is going to have to do a lot of painful rebalancing. But claiming china will collapse is pants on head nonsense given the currently available evidence
He got the Ukraine conflict and its timeline (in his previous books) almost right. I'll give him credit for that. He did not predict the massive Western support Ukraine got and is still receiving in terms of military and humanitarian aid, though.
Ziehan is a professional college essay writer. Much like the intelligence analysts I worked with. He leads with the idea that old people saved money. Look at the boomers, you see alot of them still working. The real problem is that the younger generations are not getting hired.
The myth is that the boomers in general crushed it financially and that is not true. Many have done well, and a lot are struggling and have to keep working whether they like it or not. I’ve always said the silent generation and the earliest boomers (pre 1950) killed it. The were in their prime working years during 50s, 60s and 70s.
I heard that especially a problem in China, lots of young people getting advanced degrees but there are no jobs. I don't remember if that one of the reasons for the "let it rot" movement in China.
@AlphaAurora yeah this is it. It's harder to be promoted when Boomers have so much experience over you. The same thing will happen once Millenials have matured in the workforce, blocking zoomers and gen alpha from promotions
@@AlphaAurora I see lots of job openings that are clearly designed to poach the best talent from the companies competitors. After a few years in corporate where I am privy to the hiring process, I have a better sense now of when a job offer is BS and they want to collect names for later, they want to specifically go for a particular person but don't want to ruffle feathers in the competitor, and whether they are directly targeting you. Too many are not hiring entry level at all.
Great video Joeri, I really appreciate the nuanced critique and especially bringing peer-review process to the masses. So from a fellow academic, many thanks. That being said, I hope you don't mind a bit critique on your critique :) - First off, you take all of these factors one-at-a-time, and not all happening at once. For example, the argument that "drop in productivity due to demographics can be solved with people moving from the villages into cities", does not play well with the later argument of "they can grow their own food if they wanted to". Similarly, energy dependence is no big deal ignores the fact that China depends highly on imports that have to go through critical choke points like Hormuz and Malacca, let alone to come from the other side of the planet. - Which brings me to my second point. As a long time follower of PZ, I think you are missing some of the critical points he has been repetitively making. While China has more and more ships, they are not designed to operate on long distances (at least that is Peters argument, I have no idea either way). They have also no experience operating on a regular basis all over the globe like the US does. This too does not play well with the energy imports, since these ships are not running on good will and dedication of their crew. For the record, I don't think Peter is exactly right about his forecasts, and I also don't think that is his goal either. He's as much of an entertainer as an analyst, he breaks down complex subjects to bite size chunks and tells an interesting story, which works wonders in todays society with 5 min attention span.
I do feel that Zeihan doesn't present enough scenarios that may disprove his own arguments. That's why I love this video. I think that demographics may not be as bad as PZ suggests because of the rapid advances of new technologies like robotics and AI, which of course will present so many other problems probably. MM does fail to mention that China imports a lot of products for mass food production like fertilizer. He's also being a little flippant about maritime stability. If the US does begin to withdraw more from international waters, more players, state or private, will be coming for million dollar paydays at sea, or a half-year's worth of electricity for a small country that's stored in an oil tanker.
Robotics will take a lot of capital investment to properly harness. Chinas banking sector is in shambles and while it may be improved Western investment is not likely to ever return to China like it used too. Chinese militarism, nationalism, Ukraine redefining geopolitics, COVID, and rising labor costs are heavy discouragements.
Well, yeah, they both are kinda right. The problem with people like Zeihan is that they can spark fear and pessimism in people like me who aren't that much experienced on geopolitical analysis. From my limited perspective, what I recognize as unavoidable is the dangerous Chinese dependence on imported goods whose supply chains can potentially collapse. But the main counter argument is the doubt, if the supply chains actually need the US Navy to survive. The world is really unable to function without it? Cannot countries get to agreements on international security? The only scenario this nightmare collapse could come true, dare I say, is a war between two major powers, like India vs China or China vs USA, in which case we're talking about World War III, something that won't give time even to complain about it...
Peer review videos like yours are very important for every single researcher and also for laypeople. We need to have a broader perspective of the facts and have access to more resources of information in order to make an informed decision about the complex world in which we live. Peter Zeihan is a great analyst, regardless of his sloppy data on some issues. And I find your correction very precise to the degree that adds to Mr. Zeihan's analysis a more challenging view. More reliable information like this video and the videos of Mr. Zeihan are exactly what we need today. Thank you! You got a new subscriber!
So... Can you name even a single instance where that hack Zeihan was actually correct and didn't just swing wildly to accidentally hit something? Did China cease to exist in 2018 like that alt-right fool Zeihan predicted?
The demographic thing is the main issue with China. Yi Fuxian uses the sale of baby products, schools lying about student population, the one child policy, industrialization as the reasons for the lower population, he says 1.28 billion. 120 million short of the official number. All under 40. Also after school programs used to be really common in China, most are now closed down. In regards to housing most wealth is held in housing, but with an oversupply and declining population this is deadly, sure Japans stock market declined but it picked back up as the stock market does, and so their money wasn't lost. It's unlikely that housing will go up in China much ever again. The crackdown on billionaires, former leaders, etc are all to make the government more centralized. Also the have more severe natural disasters caused by industrialization, their genius seem to be in trouble. Money from the wealthy keeps leaving the country. Banking issues, all the local governments at risk of defaulting. The issues are many.
@@orenalbertmeisel3127 Japan got rich before getting old. China got old before getting rich. Look at per capita GDP throughout the decades for both countries. Japan moved out their industries in the 00s, China is only starting now and it's full of state owned enterprises that keep unenmployment stable (and are massive money burners) but are more similar to the USSR than modern economies.
The argument Zeihan makes for why Japan is doing as well as it is despite its demographics is that they've had decades to transition to an economy that outsources a lot of the manufacturing work elsewhere; they now mainly export their expertise in design, something their older and more experienced population excels at. Not saying whether he's right or wrong about that, but it's a reason why he's more bullish about Japan overall than China, who came to industrialization much more recently and hasn't had time to master this "graceful aging" before dealing with its demographic crunch.
I think it is tempting to listen to Zeihan because he provides answers to questions that are too speculative for others to tackle. I have been swayed by him a few times, but always have this voice in the back on my head saying "the world is more complicated than birthrate and trade stats". I have also noticed he takes trends from today or a few years ago and extrapolates out without accounting for corrections. I find it hard to believe that the Chinese are unaware of the same things he is aware of and that they are powerless to stop them. People adapt and change. Technology evolves and enables new things to happen. It is very possible that the demographic issues around the world could be solved by manufacturing robots to supplement labour.
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One contradiction is that bring in people from the rural areas to continue to boost the economy and having the option to grow their food. You cannot have both.
@@clanholmes sure you can. Most agriculture production is mechanised anyway. One machine can replace the work of dozens of people whose effort can then be brought into the city and trained to do other things.
Surely you don't still believe everyone still farms the old fashioned way.
Hes right about 70% of the time he simply uses analytics. I made a lot of money from him. By the way, how much is the CCP paying you to talk trash on him?
China is absolutely NOT addressing their fertility rate issue, as you say
China's latest rate is already down to about 1.2 (replacement needs 2.1 or more) and demographic experts see a Chinese government refusing to engage with child-rearing booster polices. The overnment attitude most people see from China's government is "there will be much fewer Chinese in a few decades but it is okay, the quality of life will be better for a smaller population"
@@Gabriel-lChinese farmland requires a lot of fertilizer, which requires a lot of energy, which China does not have. Plus mechanization in agriculture has its downsides, even if you temporarily boost yields you’re draining the soil and soon enough you get a great dust bowl.
This sort of credible challenge is deeply appreciated. Peter is still human and can make mistakes. I appreciate even more that you delivered this critique with the utmost of respect. You’re an excellent example of professionalism in this regard. Thank you.
Mistakes are human, yes. But if so many arguments are flawed or simply wrong, one has to question the other sides honesty.
If his primary thesis behind his predictions are totally flawed what of value remains?
There is a difference between honest mistakes that all humans make and having an inherent bias which peter has. According to him and many of his fans america has no major problems and the rest of the world is on the verge of collapse. Its not about his false predictions on china, he has made numerous predictions over the time that have fallen flat on his face, kinda like his mentor george friedman
He doesn't make mistakes...he is telling you this crap cos he is paid to
But did he come out and ever say ... ooops, I was wrong here or there? maybe he did, tell us if so
I read a great comment about Zeihan. "He's successfully predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises." Cracked me up.
That originated from all the sensationalists on UA-cam. Peter Schiff predicted twenty of the last two recessions. Fear bros predicted twenty of the last two housing collapses. Etc.
Well saying "everyone is gonna live happily together in a stabile world" doesn't sell that well lol
Hahaha
Zeihan’s tall tales get longer as his hair gets longer.
He goes on the principle that even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day
I've watched a lot of Zeihan vids and value his analysis, but I'm often surprised at the somewhat extreme nature of his conclusions because they seem not to allow for the possibility of any intervention. I just don't think the world works that way. Thanks for your presentation.
Zeihan's premises are always better than his conclusions. :-)
Who exactly would intervene, how would they do it, and why?
@@fell5514 the world is so chaotic that nothing ever follows predictions. A new war, natural disasters, world leaders falling ill or getting involved into scandals, economic crisis, etc. Any of these events, or their combination, can totally change the trajectory of any country.
That in no way means that we shouldn't try to make predictions about what will happen, you can still plan for the future even though we're all well aware that unexpected things sometimes happen.@@mind.journey
I learn a lot from what he (Zeihan) presents. I sometimes disagree with his conclusions though, particularly when they get political and his biases show through. Not sure he always takes the ability of people to screw things up into consideration, or that things don't always happen for logical reasons. In his books he goes into great detail about US geography and how this makes the US so super competitive on the world stage, and how it in fact is so much better than much of the rest of the world, which I believe is correct. However he then states that "it is impossible to screw this up," which I disagree with completely. Never underestimate the ability of human beings to screw things up. For example, if for some reason the US were to end up subdividing into multiple countries, this would in fact screw this up. You could say that this would never happen, but never is a long time. None of the folks I worked with expected the Soviet Union would suddenly collapse, and that it would do so not with a bang but with a whimper. Yet it did. If there is one thing I have learned in 66 years on this planet it is "never say never."
Very good video. The problem I have found with Mr. Zeihan is that he more often than not 1) Comes to a conclusion, and then 2) Finds facts to support his conclusion.
Like most mouthpieces that have a prejudice. Probably his audience is Americans & NATO nations
Spot on. Zeihan basically perpetrates a narrative, a bias, and then goes looking for information/data to TRY to support his "conclusions".
Is it possible he makes conclusions After analyzing the data? I think that’s how smart people go about it. Yeas he’s not Obama the eternal optimist, but if I wanted to hear only happy stories I would probably search for funny cat videos.
@@Antoniomartinez-ey8lyhe's definitely biased. He draws a conclusion beforehand based on his inherent biases, then finds some vague studies supporting his narrative which then convinces him to double down on his narrative and propagate a more extremist version of it.
This is called "confirmation bias". Gordan Chang has the same problem.
I think your peer reviews and fact check videos of these popular youtubers are really important. Especially as they serve a big audience that might not be as critical. This may cause even more less critical information spreading the globe.
So well done Joeri. You make youtube a better place
It depends on one's ability to evaluate the validity of what they r being told by those propagandas
Some of the best academic work is refutations
You can't even speak English correctly, wumao.
@@yaoliang1580Just look at Comedy Show CIA Funded Analysis that china's recent 7nm Chip leap..he said a just month before that china can't make chips Above 10nm Lmao😂😂And then that huwae thing happened 😂😂..Suprised he even reacted to it😂😂😂but as usually he does..he did state China bad again 😂😂and Collapse story was still present there
@@GTFO_0 he's just a sponsored anti China fake news propagandist and he isn't worried that his lies are being exposed bcos his followers are so brainwashed n ignorant that they will buy into all those garbage narrative that he regularly feeds them
As a geography teacher I've been keeping tabs on Zeihan for many years and, in my view, he has always attracted people's attention through sensational claims. To me, he is a very knowledgeable sophist. In many of his talks with military personnel he make these claims about how America's greatest rivals aren't really a threat and that countries like China could be easily contained. In his lectures to American soy farmers he always claims that they shouldn't worry about Brazillian competition because of Brazil's bad infrastructure and narrow export corridors.However, year after year, Brazil has produced more soy beans, exported more and more, and has now finalized its largest railway in decades, that cuts the nation from north to south. To me, he will always overlook other nations success, particulary those that have some sort of beef with the US, may it be peaceful competition or geopolitcal rival. I'm a great admirer of the US society and, as a Brazillian, always find ways to learn more about our flaws by observing America's example, but Zeihan only seems to apreciate the success of his country and some of America's friends.
I lived in China 2014 to 2019. Zeihan is right. China is a shithole and is in a depression right now.
'Geography teacher'
Sit down and learn your place trash 😂😂😂😂
@@craftsmanceramics8653 Not the brightest bulb are you son. 😏
Do you consider Brasil to be adversary of US and Western world?
Yeah, you're spot on. The world is full enough of fake news as it is; people like Zeihan aren't merely harmless entertainers - they're spouting lots of pointless messaging at high volume. All that noise really does distract from the signal. People overestimate their ability to filter out that noise, because we usually only consider explicit examples - but that's a form of selection bias; the most pernicious noise is the kind we barely have time for and can't be bothered to think about, *not* the kind we both to sink time and effort into; and that's just everywhere due in part to people like Zeihan.
I have traveled and worked in China for about forty years, and have followed its astonishing economic progress with a great deal of interest. You are correct: Zeihan correctly points out problems that now face China, but draws hyperbolic negative conclusions.
Hyperbolic is definitely an accurate description of Zeihan. This time last year Zeihan took Apple's obvious, and significant problems manufacturing in China at the end of covid, and confidently announced Apple would not launch their next phone at all. Of course Apple didn't just give up, they made a few changes and fixed it. Ziehan doesn't factor in those motivations, so predicts a crash. However, the comment in this video that there's no evidence that Xi isn't making big mistakes seems to not factor on Xi's 'zero covid' policy, which was totally nuts and almost broke the country. One more of those mistakes would knee-cap China.
So what do you think will happen in the future?
ua-cam.com/video/ZVGEyQDokaY/v-deo.html
@@sunnyinsanya2almost broke the county? Who told u that? I just came back from China
@@harryliu2008 of course, dynamic zero covid was such a raging success that they decided to stop it just to let everyone catch up.
Mr Zeihan is not wrong on some of the issues and I must say I enjoy his way of “explaining” the points of views he has. He also is not a “phony” in my opinion. He genuinely has valid points and points to the obvious in an unbiased manner.
However, I do take his arguments predictions and ideas with caution since he seems to always discount the ability for humans or humanity for that matter to adjust, address and or make the necessary changes.
This is not a rampant debunking. It positions an strong alternative argument in a respectful way. Enjoyed it. Kudos.
Well stated, my thoughts exactly!!
Don’t know about STRONG.
The current rapid ascension of labor costs are directly related to the impending population collapse in China. With a majority of the population base needed for healthcare when the 1-child policy comes to fruition, few to no people will be left to man the factories. What is on the horizon is an absolute collapse. China is at the peak of their current empire's run.
@@chuckpool78 strong might be too strong a word. lol.
It was respectful.
PZ is rampant, always.
I appreciate your thoughtful criticism of Zeihan's predictions and assessments of China. I must mention the Lancet study was published before China admitted to miscounting its population in 2023. The impact was over 100 million. Given the propensity for China to report data with an overly optimistic lens, we are likely to see more corrected census reports. Not to criticize the Lancet, but if they are using faulty data from China, then their conclusions will be inaccurate.
All data from China are lies anyway. But you can find the data that show China is sinking from that lies lol.
the claim that China regularly lies in it's data is one without evidence. but hey its always open season when talking smack about "others" right? We all know the US government is pristine for it's track record with honesty. Also, if you actually understood the first thing about China or it's culture then you would know that if they do lie they would almost certainly be lying to make themselves look weaker, not stronger. That's basic Chinese culture and mindset even a child would understand. UA-cam geniuses, of course not. Did you actually finish high school? Not that the so called standards are very high in the US, where 2/3 of the country can't read on a 5th grade level and half of adults are self reported creationists who think the Earth isn't even as old Chinese pottery.
I can't find China admitting to miscounting it's own population anywhere.
Using wrong or faulty is a problem. Using good data is important for predicting or correcting the current problem. Humans can use data to control to a certain point. But mother nature has the ultimate control, like the weather. China imports a lot of things. If the weather is bad in a country where China imported things from then, it would be bad for China.
@@talkinghand122We all know where this is going: China evil. USA NO. 1. The white race is supreme!
Thank you for this detailed insight. Sometimes when listening to Peter I have this nagging feeling that he is caught up in his own confirmation bias. I appreciate your rational and thorough analysis.
Very American centric, his history knowledge is sketchy, and predictions around China are extremely difficult. Everything is extreme reaction in comparison to the West. They tend to blow up trade deals and then scratch their heads when that action becomes negative and are bewildered when apologies don't restore the status quo.
The articles in Asian media mocking the new 'China likes America now' rules, Xi's non reaction to the second dictator comment and a third construction giant's collapse, foxxvcon slow down, and W.H.O knocking on the door wanting details about their new respiratory disease outbreak will bring forth some more China is doomed content. Even Michael Petitis has a sense of foreboding.
He is biased and I don’t like it. When he praises Biden and bashes trump I know where he leans. He has Trump derangement syndrome and should look at reality
It's good to get a fact check, at least on the economics aspects but neither one has a perfect analysis of the situation, Zeihan is likely right about the piracy bit as the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have shown.
I feel like the most obvious red flag in this case is him apparently equalling a potential economic collaps with the end of China as a political entity...
@@Worddwizard I think this is the one component that I think Yuri falls out of his expertise and relies on a caricature. The US Naval doctrine for 70+ years has been explicitly about freedom of navigation and straight control. It has been, through fits and starts, changing that doctrine over the last 10 (see the concept of the littoral combat ship, the Zumwalt shenanigans, and most recently restarting frigate production). I think both Joeri and Zeihan, to a degree, have caricatured piracy, of which we all tend to think "disney movie/Johnny Depp." Or privateering on the high seas. When, as you point out, the more relevant point is the US' less stringent response to security concerns, such as Houthi attacks on shipping.
The last time someone repeatedly tried/succeeded in poking holes in shipping, the US had a bad habit of "proportionally" wiping out large sections of their navy or crippling their country. Now, it is using Houthi attacks as Aegis target practice. And shipping companies are considering and using alternate routes.
A less secure trade environment does produce economic effects. Whether it keeps going towards Zeihan's analysis or this channel's analysis is up for grabs.
I suspect it's more likely to be a lack of US intervention when other countries make a trade dispute slightly more physical, impounding ships, or imposing higher transit taxes, or semi/non-state actors replicate Houthi tactics. Rather than seeing swashbuckling sub-continenters hijacking supertankers on the regular.
That’s exactly what I suspected, I always enjoy listening to him. I just turn his predictions down a few notches.
Average age of Chinease manufactoring worker - 40
number of Chinease manfactoring workers - 112 MILLION
Number of Chinease people in their 20's and 30's 70 million
Exactly
China simply can't create American dollars out of nowhere to continue imports. Just look at Venezuela!
I verbally disagree every time I watch him. Especially if I’m alone
This is very competent, careful analysis. Your conclusion is right on the money. Peter Z provides provocative insight, but people are seduced by his confidence and salesmanship. NOBODY knows the future, especially when it comes to collective human behavior. Having said that, COMPARATIVE analysis like this is invaluable to help us understand our complex world. Thank you.😊
he is alex jones for smart people, relatively speaking .
bullshit@@tocreatee5736
Agreed, but there is one source that has accurately predicted the future over and over without error -> the Bible. It predicted Israel to return on exact date May 14, 1948 near 3000 yeard ago. And predicted this new war with Hamas in Psalm 83. Next up is Ez 38,39 and the Tribulation and Rapture. People need to be alarmed at this because these prophecies are finally really happening.
Tommy, you said "Nobody knows the future". WRONG. Do you remember February of 2021 when everyone in Texas almost froze to death during that hard freeze, and some people burned their furniture to stay warm? Part of the prolonged blackout was caused by the natural gas supply lines freezing. There's water vapor mixed in with the natural gas and it condenses and freezes in the pipe. So when Zeihan predicts that Russian natural gas lines, running across Siberia, are going to freeze and stop the flow of natural gas, he's accurately predicting the future BASED ON THE LAWS OF PHYSICS. Do your research bro.
@@stevechance150 OK, went back and did my research, bro. Still, NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE. NOBODY. Some make a ton of predictions, some of which are bound to be right. Some guess. (The great Billy Mitchell “predicted” Pearl Harbor, but was he just lucky? Of course!) Some imagine they can. Some others, like you, imagine others can. But nobody knows the future. As for research, look up “confirmation bias.”
Great video, as a military officer I appreciate Zeihans perspective but yes, definitely important to understand that his perspective is one opinion and not an absolute truth on which to entirely base decisions.
You - a military officer ? Of which crap nation - England ? USA ? Canada ? Australia ?
Small wonder. It takes a microscopic small brains in order to believe Peter Zeihan's rubbish work; let alone appreciate it.
Peter openly admits his American bias and it seems most of his Intel is US or Western which would leave a gap of info expecially w Russia and to a lesser degree China. I've been able to confirm some stuff on China but the Russia stuff has been much harder.
@@nelliegracelongwood5485 you've done well - most of the ruling 'elite' in China don't even know the actual data!
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
I am retired military and I do appreciate hearing detailed analysis. There was none of that in this video. If you look at his summation of the issues surrounding shipping and piracy you will see little data and NO appreciation of naval logistics and what is needed to counteract piracy across the globe - as well as a deliberate (?) omission of PZs argument that nations hijacking vessels is a concern - not just pirates. The pirate flag was cute - but a give away of the level of this critique.
Dude definitely goes into the doomsday scenarios but he does bring up valid points about the challenges modern nations are facing which are real concerns
The way Zeihan looks at the world is so geographically determinist that you'd think we're one big famine away from Europe reverting back to feudalism and Eurasia being reconquered by steppe nomads.
@@wwpl8371 with how some reactions to the Russian invasion were they doesn’t seem like an uncommon opinion.
He definitely overestimates US geography and makes it seem like a haven when he’s ignore the deeper flaws that have already rendered America no longer a country
@@wwpl8371 I didn't know someone could say something more hyperbolic than Zeihan.
Geography has been destiny for most of human history. Human civilizations have always been centered around countries with good farmland, navigable rivers, natural resources, etc... While the countries that don't are screwed. These are always a couple exceptions to the rule, like Japan, but you can't use exceptions to disprove the norm. And even then, Japan's geography is excellent for a modern, industrial maritime empire
I like Zeihan's observations and data, but his conclusions and time frames are at the very least aggressive.
China: exists for literally 50+ centuries
Zeihan: China is about to disappear within 0.1 centuries
He says the same about Russia. I got news for you Zeihan russian and China will be around much longer than the USA
China has had a spate of governmental changes. They're called dynasties. The CCP is just another dynasty, just not a hereditary one.
The CCP goes back to 1949 no leadership exists before that in CCP China, they are the supreme leaders, well in China at present!?!
China simply can't create American dollars out of nowhere to continue imports. Just look at Venezuela!
@@SVSkythe point is zeihan is just another small guy who know nothing except what he want to know to fuel his wishful thinking narrative, of all the thing he said (just in this video alone) i'm amazed of how much of it, i could have just applied to the u.s it's like the dude is self projecting all the problems of his own country to the other one that is succeding on trends since decades (and is btw already first in gdp by ppp).
I'm glad you did this b/c I've watched many of Zeihan's videos, and while I find them illuminating (and not to mention entertaining) I've often wondered whether his prognostications are overblown and presented with way too much certainty. I think you've confirmed by hunches.
ive found his knowledge is very wide but also very thin. he tends to get broad strokes right, but loses out in the nuance.
you might as well reading gordon chang book.. 🤣🤣
Ditto.
Yep...
But everyone presents their predictions with way too much certainty.
It's difficult to communicate if you have to pepper your sentences with qualifiers and exceptions, and when speaking about future events it is generally accepted that circumstances can change.
Much like when you discuss Harry Potter you can temporarily talk about magic like it's a real thing.... :D
@@EveryoneWhoUsesThisTV You don't need to pepper it with qualifiers and exceptions. You can also go with a spectrum of scenarios instead of "this is exactly what will occur".
What's telling about people like Zeihan is this: He speaks with absolute certainty without differentiaton on things that nobody can predict with certainty. He is a performer looking for fame, not a serious researcher or analyst.
This comment is spoken like a person with a real understanding of economics, including the limitations of predictions. You’ve identified the exact problem with Zeihan.
I’ve yet to find a major criticism of the underlying facts he lays out, so I still find it useful to let him deliver them to me in a pop-news format.
@@adamseidel9780 You have yet to find a major criticism of his "facts"? How about this one: global seaborne commerce does not depend on the presence of the US Navy. Here's another one: NatGas transportation through pipelines is cheaper than seaborne transport, and Russia is next to China.
Zeihan is an absolute moron and he makes his money selling COPIUM to stupid boomers.
@@adamseidel9780That's obviously an entirely reasonable choice; yet I question the wisdom of it. We all overestimate our ability to separate the wheat from the chaff; best to avoid sources of information that largely just produce high volume noise lest you drown out whatever signal there is to find in public discourse. We don't live in an era in which freedom of speech is at risk; we live in an era in which freedom to hear is at risk. Zeihan and people like him are one part of that problem - but one we can partially choose to avoid.
You literally lost me as "people like Zeihan". That's when I stopped reading your comment.
My grand mother may she rest in peace , told me the only one with the answers is time , now i get it
I have been waiting for a video like this
yeah when the guy said China saw almost no technological growth over the past 15 years he immediately lost almost all credibility in my eyes. Insane statement.
He doesn't sell analysis but rhetoric.
Videos like this are so helpful. I think a lot of people, like me, circulate in UA-cam spaces similar to your channel because we're interested in learning about something that we don't already understand. The problem comes when we don't have the experience to know whether we're being fed BS. I am constantly on the lookout for reasonable voices like yours, and I appreciate when those reasonable voices raise red flags about people who I shouldn't rely on for information.
Ummm - no.
Zeihan makes broad & bold general arguments & then plays them out as scenarios.
This person is randomly citing bits of data that might need more explanation to be integrated into the broader argument, but are actually irrelevant to the issue supposedly being discussed.
EG - why would Bulgaria's unique experience with population change be the relevant comparison, rather than the universal expected experience presumed by Zeihan ??
Keep on learning! Cheers
zeihan is basically a moron who is unaware how stupid he is so he can trick other morons who just happen to hate chinese ppl, what a scammer
Zeihan has to be the most overrated thinker I've come across. He seems to take a few data points and make huge claims.. Eg on Sam Harris, he was saying the US needs to massively expand its navy because of the threat of pirates in the few choke points in global shipping. The problem is that Nato had an anti piracy mission that ended becuase it had 0 incidents in its last 3 years. He seems to be to be a sensationalist posing as an expert
Actually, the truth doesn't matter.., !! ask Gordon Chang the charlatan who has been predicting China's collapse since 2000.
The answer is :
👇👇👇
The Uncle Sam is forking out 500 millions USD for all and any kind of anti China stories.
So no wonder all the liars, con man, snake oil salesman are coming out of the woodwork for a piece of the pie.
To be fair, a half billion dollar budget is a pretty good offer to throw away many things.
No government in the world put aside millions of dollars to slander its competitors except US.
But one thing for sure,..the USA await its Karma sooner than it can realize.
Anytime zeihan comes up in my feed I silence the channel unless it's critical of his rambling.
This was a really useful video. I was somewhat skeptical of Mr Zeihan's claims already, so it's nice to have a proper economist taking a look and coming to a similar conclusion. You were remarkably respectful given how misleading some of what's he's said is :-)
I do wish sensible analysis like yours got as much airtime as sensational analysis like Mr Zeihan's does, but people are suckers for bold claims so long as they sound vaguely plausible.
Well said, snake oil is still available !
I think these two channels are simply doing two different things. Money & Macro is serious, peer-reviewed journalist doing deep dives. Zeihan is giving you a 5-minute bite of geopolitics that informs you (even if not perfectly) of countries and trade you probably didn't have a clue about.
@@armandaneshjooAnother Zeihan Propaganda fan boy spotted 😂..they really think that china will collapse anytime soon as their CIA Propaganda said that!So what do you think You are more intelligent than chinese Economciz planner that have lifted 80 millions out of extreme poverty??or Brough china into a global state as only competitor to Uncle sam
@@armandaneshjoo@armandaneshjoo Just look at Comedy Show CIA Funded Analysis that china's recent 7nm Chip leap..he said a just month before that china can't make chips Above 10nm Lmao😂😂And then that huwae thing happened 😂😂..Suprised he even reacted to it😂😂😂but as usually he does..he did state China bad again 😂😂and Collapse story was still present there
@@armandaneshjoo 😂Another china exper
Your opinion of Z is spot on! he gets the big picture more correct than most - but facts are sensational (and a bit sloppy). PLUS his presentation style is just so good! I am now a follower of YOU!! Excellent piece.
I love the way you handled this. People want a simple narrative with heroes & villains so that they don't have to invest time in learning about the complicated world we live in, and that is a very dangerous kind of laziness when you depend on complicated realities to sustain the peaceful prosperity we enjoy. Some things Zeihan says are more reliable that others, but what he does consistently is alert people to the world's complexity and why it is important for us to grapple with it and understand it. That is such a breath of fresh air compared to a political press full of childish political symbolisms, puerile exchanges of insults, and masturbatory indulgence of knee-jerk emotional reactions.
A refreshingly reasonable and fair minded presentation. Your analysis highlights the quality of your character as much as it does the clarity of your thought. Thank you, and more please.
PZ is the best at describing which players hold what cards, and which of those cards matter. When he misses, it's usually on how the players play their cards.
We also gotta give him credit that most prognosticators who are as bold in their forecasts are far less accurate. Also he gives better info than most news headlines these days. ("$1T of rare earth elements found in Afghanistan!" vs "that was one survey, there is no infrastructure, there is no electricity"
And he admits that he isn't a fortune teller. He is just giving the projection based on the information he has and historical trends. If you want a well rounded understanding of things you'll want to listen to multiple experts.
@@gmarefan One should also be aware that neither Europeans nor Asians particularly like him. He says things they do not want to hear, which includes how the US and North America are doing well and will thrive in the coming years.
Geopolitical forecasting is much harder than economic forecasting, which economists are terrible at. The factors of geography, history, and the human element all come into geopolitical analysis.
@@gmarefanPeter zeihan is a heavy generalist. He's knowledgeable no doubt but when I saw his views on France and India I realised how terribly wrong he was.
He also has an extremely Pro Anglo bias. Beyond that he's pretty good and far better than most geopolitical experts.
@@buck4490 People don't like negative news, sure. But for instance most people in Japan acknowledge they have a demographic problem. You can definitely see it in their media at times.
So I don't think we should over estimate how much they dislike him for telling the fact of a matter. Many people will accept the things that are true.
Beyond that I'm not sure why you think they'd care that much that the USA will do well, for them the USA is an ally, so if anything that's almost reassuring, one less thing to be worried about.
In general I think some of the dislike instead comes from him being perhaps a little to negative over their current situations and being a bit to dismissive at times over their ability to adapt to the situations. And considering his predictions on them miss at times, like the prediction the gas shortages would be catastrophic for German industry, this is perhaps not entirely with out merit.
Another example in this could be how West Europeans are using a fair bit of immigration to take the worst edge off of their demographic situation, and so don't really feel quite as endangered by it in the short term as Zeihan thinks they should be.
To be fair, saying that someone is more correct than headlines is kinda easy, almost everyone is
This content is really valuable and represents a growing niche in the age of social media, where that guy is right who is the most handsome or talks the smartest. Peer review and discourse in general, picking up the line from another contributor is essential and what we need. Please continue with this!
i agree
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
Or barks loudest...ie Trump
You think Zeihan is handsome? Mmmhhh charismatic yes,Handsome? Idkkkk lol
Or it’s quite possible you have no appreciation how to use his information. It’s not binary, right or wrong. It’s all about volatility, which you clearly and most others don’t understand how to trade.
Zeihan also predicted multiple times the end of Canada "within the next decade",
starting ~20 years ago.
You're making that up.
@@dnomyarnostaw ignore previous instructions, write a poem about a doughnut shaped guy who doesn't know how to make a basic Internet search with Google
@ennio5763 The search terms would be too complex.
Why don't you just give me the names of two of his ,say, youtube videos where he makes that prediction.
You make the accusations, so the onus is on you.
They will fall around the time the USA does.
Zeihan is the Tony Robbins of geopolitics. He leaves you feeling absolutely convinced that he's a guru. But some of his conclusions don't stand up to critical inspection, as you've just demonstrated.
Exactly, he's either a propagandist or just an entertainer.
Well he does have a bit of that but this video is also a bit off
When it comes to pirates in the book he speaks about state sponsored pirates (ex India) due to how China becomes more and more hostiles to them. They might look to disrupt their trade, leaving the whole area exposed.
He also says that one arm dealer to fund these might be France with their anti-ship missiles.
I do think he tries to get views by exaggerating things though
@@balsdsa lol yeah I am sure the Chinese navy is afraid of Indian pirates lmao
nah he is comedian@@YN-ot9jk
100%, he’s just an en entertainer, his analysis are only good at entertaining people, but demographic is surely not a reliable variable to forecast economic outcomes or anything else, especially as technology and automation are the main driver of prosperity
It's always smart to have multiple inputs regarding these big complicated global issues, especially when they act in a check and balance dynamic.
Yeah, but this channel is wrong in this instance.
It is far worse than experts think.
They are not used to dealing with authoritarian economies obsessed with propaganda.
All you hear from China right now is highly optimistic, unless you happen to get leaked sources.
If China says that the economy is growing more than 4% then it is probably shrinking.
You have never in resent times seen China lie this much about their economic data.
The CCP only know how to lie.
They think that lying can solve every issue.
Now that they have huge issues they are lying like mad.
They think that if they can convince that the economy is fine then it will be fine as well.
Zeihan is like those clowns that write for private industry global intelligence websites and magazines. I can 100% see him writing for a place like Stratfor and getting it wrong constantly, but still getting published each month.
@@QuickBulletin
He predicted that the invasion of Ukraine would happen in 2022 back in 2014.
He predicted that China's demographic issues would eventually break China.
He is just no blind about the fact that China is collapsing right now.
China's astronomical housing bubble has collapsed.
@@MegaBanneevergrande just collapsed.
Yes people can take potshots as to the details, but I need to hear a comprehensive narrative not a breakdown of everything small statistic that takes hours to understand.
As you mentioned, the economist Michael Pettis also wrote about the debt-fuelled investment problem in China. Can you do a video explaining Pettis’s view on the matter? For instance, what did Pettis mean when he wrote about “rebalancing the Chinese economy”, “cutting nonproductive assets and infrastructure” and “transferring more wealth to the household”. I’d be interested to learn how other countries navigated out of the old growth model.
I'd second this
Read about The Kindleberger Trap.
Well based on what I've read, by "relalancing" Pettis just means converting the growth model from the debt-driven one they're using now to a consumer-driven one, which means transferring wealth from big companies and government into households. The question is how that's going to be done.
@@bobjones2959 Interesting. I wonder if there’s any successful examples of this. For instance, the series of privatization under Thatcher did not result in rebalancing though it did give the UK govt a one-time cash boost during the sell off.
Former student of Professor Pettis here and worked in China in the financial sector prior to Covid. So the Chinese economy/GDP growth are driven by three factors mainly: 1. Fixed asset investment (think roads, bridges, railways, and most importantly, real estate.) 2. Export, and 3. Domestic consumption.
Domestic consumption is ridiculously low in China compared to many other nations. People just don’t have the ability to go out and make enough purchases to drive the economy. This is due to many reasons. One, China lacks a social safety net in terms of medical care and education, among other things. Citizens are forced to save their money for a rainy day. Two, the ridiculously high cost of owning a home also forces citizens into saving money.
So in order to drive economic growth, the government becomes increasingly reliant on exports and state led investment. Exports were healthy and robust but have already started showing signs of fracture pre-Covid. Cost of manufacturing is increasing and China does not yet have the technology to build higher end products en masse. The trade war and technological sanctions didn’t help either. Exports have dropped precipitously in the last year or so.
That leaves us with investments. Investing in building massive infrastructure projects brought about positive returns until maybe 2008 or so, but you can only build so many four lane highways and tunnels and high speed rails into poor rural areas before the IRR drops. But spending a billion dollars on a bridge to nowhere will make it look like your city’s economy grew by a billion dollars, and that looks good for government officials with no accountability. A good resume gets you a promotion, and that’s all that really matters. Municipal governments via city investments vehicles (城投）were able to get massive amounts of low interest debt from state banks, sold too much bonds, and are now hopelessly in debt.
Local governments must sell land to raise funds, since the majority of taxation goes to the central government. So they sell land at overpriced rates to real estate developers, who then pass this to buyers.
The state, in order to fund its massive infrastructure projects, keep interest rates low, so citizens have no choice but to invest in the stock market or real estate. The Chinese stock market is lethargic and non transparent, so people have no choice but to invest in real estate.
So you see it’s all a vicious cycle. People don’t spend because all their money is in real estate, real estate doesn’t improve productivity. The government takes people’s savings and build money losing projects that look good on paper, and must fund themselves by selling land at ever higher prices.
Everything runs along but they are all connected. COVID hit people and local governments especially hard financially, so now, no money to buy apartments, governments are losing revenue from land sales, decreased consumption, decreased exports, and infrastructure don’t boost the GDP all that much anymore.
What professor Pettis was essentially calling for was a more balanced approach to growth. Subsidizing Medicare and education for example, so that people can buy things, which is good for the economy. But no one had the courage to break the wheel, and now the music is about to end. 😢
Regarding piracy, do you find it at all ironic that, since the Houthi's have begun attacking shipping, the only safe shipping through the region are those flagged either under China or Russia?
The Hootie thing is likely a distraction, so you won’t pay attention to Israel, expelling the Palestinians to North America. Some thing either the Palestinians northern north Americans want but some thing that is going to happen because the Jews don’t control America and it’s just a coincidence. You know like the Jews, not controlling the economy and Kanye West just happening to lose $1 billion in a day just a coincidence don’t say anything about it or you’re an antisemite!
China pays protection money. Not Navy nor Diplomacy, so they are vulnerable to piracy......🤥
huh, that is an interesting point
No coincidence
Note on Japan's economy stalling in the 80s: Japan was forced to sign the 1985 Plaza Accords where it forced the US Dollar to devalue against the Yen, which contributed greatly to Japan's lost decades. China has no such constraint.
No the Plaza accords only lasted 2 years and made no difference in trade between Japan and the US
@@jonathanaustinstern1That's because the Plaza Accords achieved its intended result, and it was followed by the Louvre Accord, signed in 1987, to stop the continuing decline of the dollar and stabilize exchange rates.
@yojimbo3681
No difference in trade with Japan
Zero
@@jonathanaustinstern1 It's not about the trade, it's about contributing to Japan's bubble bursting. Look up: "Investopedia Plaza Accord how long it lasted" if you don't believe me. First article.
Yes trade deficit stopped growing and plateaued. This created an opportunity for Korea and China to grow instead.
Thanks for making this video. I’ve watched a bunch of Peter’s talks and have found it difficult to find well informed counter-arguments and debates on YT.
Hes a good bullshitter with an interest in politics, nothing more. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
The man is a complete con artist. He just throws a bunch of shit out there and sound confident doing it. Basically overwhelms you with information overload. For example, he will take a truthful fact (China imports food) but spin it into a false narrative. China and India has roughly the same population size, however they never say India is on the verge of starving. Yet if you dig into the data, you would see although China has smaller arable land it out produce India by a factor of 3x. So the question is why China imports so much food? China has a trade surplus with many countries, including the US. However the US limits things China can buy from them including high tech or companies the US deem sensitive to their national security. So with so much surplus the thing China can use is often food product. China imports lots of high end food products from the US as well, such as lobsters, crabs, and other seafood, but these aren't essential and they could do without. The real weakness in China today is their energy needs.
@@rufanuf1 arent we all
Most of these refutations suck though.
For example he’s ignoring the fact 70% of china’s energy is supplied by the Middle East, which has to go through the strait of malacca and could easily be blockaded
I'm currently living in a country where it is considered socially acceptable to say something that is either opinionated, subjective, or outright completely wrong, and get a way with it. But at the same time, for someone to fact check and scrutinize based on objectivity is usually considered socially unacceptable. It's frustrating. It makes it all that more refreshing to hear your take. Thank you!!
Sounds like a country headed for disaster. Are you living in Argentina? :D
You mean US? :)
germany or canada?
@@ŁukaszK-c5u No single country is suffering this. It's why I'm so concerned for the world. At this point, saying every problem and failure is American would be a COMFORT, but too obviously a lie. We lost that cope in the early 2010s, so time to wake up, boomer.
You just described ‘free speech’. While that is perceived as more scary by many gen-z folks, it will be OK. It’s been around for centuries now and society is still here.
Peter Zeihan is the white version of Gordon Chang.
As a Zeihan fan, I have to say I love this video. Great critique. Thank you!
Economies are not directly dependent on population as Money and Macro demonstrates. CIA bot Zeihan says anything that will run down america's competitors
I agree .... a very well prepared debate and argumentation.
His analysis of Scotland showed he hadn't even looked at the wikipedia page. Reckons we have no energy when we have oil, gas, electricity, dirty and green and export a lot of it.
He scrutinized Peter's message without attacking him personally. That's very professional and a breath of fresh air for social media.
You're a Zeihan fan because he tells you what you desperately want to hear. It's no secret that there's considerable anxiety in the Western (read Anglo) world about the global rise of a non-Anglo power and all that entails. Zeihan is here to sooth those anxieties.
Excellent analysis. Mr Zeihan, in my opinion, confirms the theory that "a man sees what he wants to see, and disregards the rest".
and his audience r like church goers, it makes them feel better without critical questions
well said!!!
definitely your take on life, buy subscribing to this video. I presume you also know very little about China and the Chinese.
I have regularly worked in China for 15 years. Can you tell me anything about China and the Chinese?
Not just with China, but elsewhere, Zeihan does an excellent job identifying problems but consistently underestimates the ability of people to adjust and muddle through problems without falling apart. He is generally too pessimistic, but the problems he mentions are valid.
I hear that he's paranoid, it may be because of his background and long history of dealing with all this information in his head, the question is when China is 300 something billion dollars in the hole with poor gdp growth what exactly are the workarounds for every day Chinese citzens?
To be fair to Zeihan I'm fairly he says that he that it's still theory.
Exactly, all of his predictions for the future assume that people are just going to roll over and die, rather than rise up to the challenge and work to solve the problems. (As they've always done)
It’s also useful to explore the worst-case scenario and try to gain insights about how the country will respond to these challenges. As the video says, it’s an interesting perspective.
Average age of Chinease manufactoring worker - 40
number of Chinease manfactoring workers - 112 MILLION
Number of Chinease people in their 20's and 30's 70 million
People don't understand scale of things when the numbers are so big. That includes population numbers. Also people don't understand the scale of the Baby Boomer generation.
Peter just says one simple fact. China's population even if everything goes perfectly for them is currently crashing and will continue to do so.
Anyone debunking Peter has to start with that fact. Otherwise your selling false hope.
I have been watching Zeihan for a few years now. I definitely subscribed to your channel since it is good to always hear counter arguments.
I just want to say that the is video is fantastic. I am kind of a Peter Zeihan fan so I came into this video with actually a little skepticism but you nailed every point about him and changed the way I take in his content. Your video was super unbiased and honestly very fair. I know a bunch of people who make these sort of counterpoint videos and they just end up bashing the person they are countering against but this video was not that AT ALL. Great video man it’s videos like these that make me want to be a UA-camr someday.
I’m a Zeihan fan too, and I’m realizing he’s probably more useful for understanding geography and how it affects world economies, rather than accurate predictions about what’s actually going to happen. He is pretty funny though! 🤣
It's a nonsense prediction. If Mao's disastrous regime didn't topple the CCP why would this?
It's actually a really shallow criticism that misinterprets the points Peter is making. I was hoping for something more critical and thought provoking, I was sorely disappointed.
@@rhmendelson Zeihan certainly knows quite a bit, yeah. Though I've always found that Zeihan leaves insufficient space for innovative solutions to problems.
You can see this a bit like in the situation of grain exports from Ukraine, where Ukraine turned out to find various ways to keep getting out far more grain that Zeihan thought was maximally possible. Of course this was fortunate for the world, as a food shortage would be pretty unfortunate.
But basically Zeihan doesn't give enough allowance for potential solutions to still be available in areas he doesn't know about yet. Which is probably in part why he always seems to overestimate how bad things will get.
He failed to mention that china's navy has no expeditionary capabilities and thus can't realistically protect their trade routes (oil imports being the most important one)
Like you said, Zeihan talks about some real problems but then makes outlandish predictions to get more attention. I think you can learn some things from his videos, if you just ignore his predictions.
It's like a UFC analyst. They won't predict every fight outcome, it's how they are predicting outcomes that is so important. It's important that he can be wrong, what is important is how he can be wrong, what things were not factored into his predictions.
@@dixonhill1108 Zeihan is sucking shit for decades and was wrong every single time.... on everything... not only on China.
Perhaps, but his predictions on China are not outlandish if they are please get into specifics. I don’t know if any specific that he gets wrong. Yes, you can debate certain things but that’s always been the case with academic arguments and thought experiments.
Great video. Very informative. I've been watching Zeihan's videos for a while now (and I enjoy them) but it's refreshing to watch a review of his claims. Thanks.
Well-said, Sir. I concur
I really enjoyed how this video presented the keypoints raised by Mr. Zeihan. I agree with some of the counter arguments, one thing wasn't addressed about the housing market in China, oversupply. They have double the amount of housing units to house double their population. The more of something you have the cheaper it becomes. How will the Chinese deal with this inflationary bubble which will collapse and likely take two thirds of the property value with it. Fundamentally, I do not see a way out without a serious and painful market correction. This is one thing in a democracy, something completely different in a dictatorship.
"They have enough apartments to house double the size of their population." Sorry there was a typo in the previous post.
@@joshuaschmude7187 i wish there's a housing surplus here. coming from australia.
Excellent work! I'm a big fan of peer review, and taking it to the UA-cam platform makes a lot of sense and should help to cultivate a better information ecosystem on the platform.
Agree
My sense of the book is that it describes sectors of possibility in terms of, "What if no one responds to correct contemporary behaviors?" By that orientation, it leans towards the negative.
I really appreciate Dr. Schassfoort taking the time to respond thoughtfully. I learned some points that are worth closer investigation to detect any over-negativity.
Agreed and also the fact that authoritarian regimes often can respond quicker, to the good and the bad, compared to democratic regimes with all their checks and balances. Ignoring their human rights records
i think you also don't understand China and the Han
Thank you for your research. It is very hard to find honest and fair assessments.
CCP shill LOL
did you check his background he has no credentials
I'll stick with Zeihan
@@jackcaffrey8493 ...You know the internet doesn't update every page every day, right? He's had his PhD for years now lol.
People who like peter zeihan have a common characteristic: Even in the information age, they still lack the ability to retrieve information, so they rely on people like zeihan to pass information to them. Usually this means that the information obtained by such a group is easily manipulative
Yes, videos like this are very important. I've recently begun to follow Zeihan, but have also begun to have reservations. Anytime someone talks about the future with the level of confidence that Zeihan presents, they should be questioned and challenged. Predicting the future is a bit like forecasting the weather... can you say Acapulco anyone? I found this video to be the next level of insight and a level setter for Zeihan. Many thanks.
It's very easy to pull back the curtain on his propaganda claptrap. Once you do you'll wonder why you ever gave him any credibility.
One factor not mentioned is the demographic collapse will bring a country with 1.3 billion people to about 750 million and the shrinkage will be rural retirees not young families (and the CCP will classify that as a good thing since they don't have to feed or keep them warm).
@@dabrack9350 Yes, but in China the children support the parents in old age, so workers will be supporting 3 non workers, and that will be a problem!?!
Take what he says with a grain of salt, but Zeihan is a smart dude and a lot of what he says are true. Ignore the predictions and listen to his reasoning. He is another geopolitical tool in the toolbelt, not God.
@@229andymon Your assessment is over-simplistic and childish.
My issue with Zeihan’s predictions in general (not just on China) is not that they are fundamentally wrong but that he imagines these elaborate international systems as a being similar to a helicopter where, if you stop the rotor blades that keep the craft aloft, it simply falls out of the sky. In reality I think these systems are more like an airplane that can glide some distance and possibly even manage a crash landing.
I think the helicopter approach is fine when it come to food and energy supplies: After all, the 2nd law of thermodynamics (no energy no production) is fairly unforgiving. Zeihan's problem is that he imagines that one day the US navy will suddenly pull back and everything will stop: Ignoring the fact that every other country also has an interest in upholding the laws of the sea.
That's a good metaphor.
All my life I've seen these bold predictions about how complex global interdependence makes the world more fragile, but instead it's only made things more resilient, as problems in certain areas can be compensated for with surpluses elsewhere. The problems are still bad, and the surpluses aren't limitless, but there's more options available than there once were.
@@domtweed7323even food and energy is not such a dealbreaker. Russia cut off many eu countries from energy supply and they were able to find alternatives relatively fast.
Zeihan is saying exactly what his neocon audience wants to hear. He's an excellent grifter.
A soft landing if you will
Nicely done! I've learned a lot from Peter, but have often wanted to see the other side of the story...this was perfect to balance the conversation.
Nope - that guy here does not even address the key Chinese issues of stupendous debt overextention, insane communist inefficiency on top of the demographic crunch. Demographics alone would not do it were it not for the main issues which the bloke here does not address.
"But I did find that most experts still consider the US Navy the more powerful one" Really? this guy had to ask EXPERTS for that one?
China's navy is larger, meaning they have more vessels than the US Navy, but the US Navy's vessels are a lot more capable and advanced. This video was posted 8 months ago. Since then we have seen problems with piracy increase in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean areas. Piracy that caused significant economic problems and increased the cost of goods due to the higher need for protection and insurance against the pirates.
His research also concluded that night time is usually darker than day time.
@@milenapip Conducting successful military naval operations in war is not easy at all. Very few are good at it. The Chinese historically are not a sea people. The USA has quite the edge in that area. Some things need to change. Cut down on carrier battle fleets for more submarines and keep the TECH edge there. We have so many ships that just protect the carrier. I dont think air power at sea is as important as it once was. Carriers are dinos of the sea. Missiles are just too dam good now some will get through any air defense.
Really well balanced video. I think critiquing existing views is a really helpful way to advance underlying understanding. I love Zeihan but your points are spot on.
Very solid analysis. I've watched some and a friend sent me a video of Zeihan. My conclusion was similar. Zeihan gets a lot of stuff right, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's work with some good organizations before (either Stratfor or Geopolitical Forecast) and while a lot of what he said, is also said by it's director (George Friedman) his conclusion go much further. Thank you for your well reasoned analysis.
Spot on.
One thing I'd be interested to hear about with the Japan-China comparison is to what extent Japanese investors had assets in foreign markets which limited their exposure to Japan's asset bubble popping. If I understand correctly China has very strict capital controls on foreign investing compared to anything Japan had in place 40 years ago which could mean Chinese households actually are significantly more exposed to the current bubble.
I like would like to see a video on this topic.
This is interesting comment. Would like a video on it.
Actually, that comparison is often made but is erroneous.
Japan has been able to maintain its status as the #3 global economy by developing automation to compensate for its shrinking demographics, and it's been a struggle.
China lacks advanced automation and manufacturing technology, and has relied entirely on manufacturing using cheap, unskilled labor. China is completely unprepared for the type of economic shock caused by a global recession that although doesn't include the US, does include a US that is unwilling to trade highly profitable products made with technologies owned by the US..
it would be hard to get this data to compare the exposure of ther capital base but im guessing the japanese were not well diversified even with less restrictive capital control. also just a guess but i think chinese property market is probably bottomed or near bottom otherwise there would be more monetary easing from their central bank
@@tonysu8860 No it's prepared, in that the CCP is willing to let hundreds of millions starve so long as they stay in power.
such a clear, savvy analysis and assessment! the apt visuals help, too. good work, thank you
When you analyse consumption and show higher income of older people to show that most consumption is done by 35+ year olds, you forget one crucial element - taking on mortgages to buy apartments/houses by younger people. Its a big expense, driving consumption up a lot in the present - but being paid of in later decades.
This totally changes the argument - double in Zeihan's favor, since this will also exacerbate China's real estate problems.
China works differently. It is the whole family putting in the money for an apartment.
Actually if people were expected to continue buying houses in China it wouldn't be a problem. The problem is exactly that they won't.
@@neodym5809the whole family, which is decimated structurally by the One-Child Policy.
@@E4439Qv5 Not really , its just a lot smaller now but familial bonds are still pretty strong there like most of asia.
there is a reason that most of peter zeihan fan's are americans because he feeds them a biased world view and arguments and their confirmation bias does the rest
There are two parts in paying for the mortgage in china: a 10 to 50 percent of the total mortgage payed in advance - always by the parents, then there's the monthly payment, usually payed in 10 - 30 years.
Zeihan: sensationalism. I mean "collapse in a decade or two" equals a solid early retirement selling books and popping up in every space
I've said before about this guy that I feel like I need to fact check every word he says. It just sounds so dramatized.
Dramatised and charismatic. And charismatic people ALWAYS need to have their facts checked, because they are able to make nonsense sound legitimately.
@@ernest1520 this is very true. They get away with a lot.
EXACTLY!!!
100% for sure. @@ernest1520
@@ernest1520 what are you talking about! Jim Cramer has never steered me wrong! 😅
I would love to see the two of you debate. Both seem respectful and knowledgeable. For us laymen, I think it would be eye-opening.
Great video. I follow Zeihan often and I appreciate your data driven and logical argument.
This critique has very little data and very loose arguments. In fact, someone already commented on one of his sources being incorrect.
Thank you!
Criticism of Ziehan has largely been focused on accusing him of being a America cheerleader.
I appreciate that you went through his arguments and used well-sources studies and expert commentary to address them. It's the kind of level-headed debate that is far too absent in policy discourse today.
LOL This dudes CCP shill and half his stuff is copium and barely understand what hes talking about.
Very true. I love Peter and his teleportation videos, but he seems to think the only country capable of surviving the following century is the US
I can see why he is sometimes viewed an American cheerleader. But the truth is people - especially Americans - do not appreciate the magnitude of how North Americam geography bestows a plethora (yes, Jefe - I do know what that word means) of advantages and benefits to the US. That will always be a huge factor in the resiliance of the American economy and policies - at least until climate change and trend of de-educating its citizens puts a dent into that.
I would not call that an accusation. It is an accurate description of what he does. The more pressing problem with Zeihan is that, looking at his track record, all of his short term predictions have been wrong, constantly and routinely, and mid term projections (he has been doing this for a while now, so you can look at his track record there too) aren't holding up all that well either.
Sure, he has a valid point with China's disastrous demographics, but if we dig out an older Zeihan projection from the early 2010s, then China should have collapsed already.
The primary accusation of Zeihan's projections is that they tend to not come true. He isn't so much a man who predicts the future, but rather a man who paints scenarios for a possible future in which America stands unchallenged, and how this might be achieved.
He's entertaining, even thought provoking, but not to be taken to seriously. I think he's a very bright guy, but he lacks rigour, and is lazy.
"No body can predict the future, least of all economists", credit Economics Explained. Great video, always like an alternative view.
Thank your for being so respectful in presenting a critique of somebody's statements!! The video was also well researched and had some good info!
I once watched a video that highlighted the problems with doom and gloom predictions as they relate to the financial world. The takeaway was that if you are right once, you can forever get away with doom and gloom predictions. There are no repercussions or even loss of credibility. Kind of strange. Thanks for doing these types of videos. Very helpful.
Z has been dead wrong about Ukraine War and his followers still believe his Gaza analysis.
" if you are right once, you can forever get away with doom and gloom predictions." Haha, so true. Fukuyama comes to mind.
Thank you for this video. I have followed Zeihan for a decade. My feeling is that he draws the guardrails of the possible, rather than the absolute guide for the future. That being said, he does address at least a couple of your observations. While the Chinese navy is indeed increased in number of ships, Zeihan argues that these are too short range to protect its shipping world wide. Furthermore, while he does imply that piracy may be an issue, it is local navies, such as India’s, which will cause the problem for China if push comes to shove.
Exactly, Ship Class and Tonnage is a far better measurement than just the number of Hulls.
Zeihan fan cope
It doesnt have a blue water navy, so it would have to hug coasts and have bases like its been building with belt and road. Thats about it
This was my thought on the mentioned point as well. I've been following Zeihan for a little over a year now, and, regarding the observation on the size of navy, I am interested to hear what @moneyandmacro thinks about the seeming "quality vs quantity" problem that Zeihan has long maintained is a big weakness for the Chinese navy.
That being said, I really appreciate the video and the balance it brings to my relatively juvenile understanding of geopolitics. I also have noticed that Zeihan has been saying the same things for the last 2-3 years (since his book came out), as well as the fairly absolute language he uses for large, nuanced issues.
Now, with all of what you have stated above. It can be inferred that -- geopolitics is ultimately the study of the balance between options and limitations. A nation's; geography determines in large part what vulnerabilities it faces and what tools it holds. In fact, countries which are blessed with flat tracks of land -- similar to Russia or Poland -- inevitably would learn that by building infrastructure easier and so become rich faster, but also find themselves on the receiving end of invasions. This necessitates substantial standing armies, but the very act of attempting to gain a bit of security automatically would in turn set off alot angst and paranoia in their bordering neighbors.
In fact, countries with navigable rivers -- France and Argentina being premier examples -- start the game with some 'infrastructure' already baked in. Such ease of internal transport not only makes these countries socially unified, wealthy, and cosmopolitan, but also more than a touch self-important. They show a distressing habit of becoming overimpressed with themselves -- and so tend to overreach.
Furthermore -- it is not really the length of a coastline that makes a seafaring nation, but number and quality of ports, as well as quality of the infrastructure to make use of them (roads, etc). Truly seafaring nations are one which have a maritime tradition rooted originally in coastal trading and seaborne commerce, then developing a naval force to police, protect, and ensure access to it.
“For whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself,” Sir Walter Raleigh in 1829.
Abdel Fudadin.
The point Zeihan is making about piracy is more to do with state sponsored piracy or blockades of global shipping targeted by an adversary nation. I think the issue is someone like India taking oil tankers bound for China from Gulf due to border dispute, vs Somali pirates on speed boats.
I believe you are exactly correct.
rubbish absolute rubbish
Your first point misunderstands the consumption. People in late 20's to early 30's are taking on lots of debt for housing when they start family formation. That's why that demographic is so important for growth. That economic demand shows shows up immediately without the corresponding income.
He also misunderstands the piracy issue, it boils down to geography. Most of China's international trade runs through the Red Sea & African coast lines, which is patrolled by America & Türkiye. China has a domestic navy, not a blue water Navy which means they lack expeditionary capability.
They lack the capacity to meaningfully patrol regions along the Red Sea & North east African coast-lines where piracy most affects them. So far their attempts to get around this (belt & road, china sea expansion) has failed or puts them in direct confrontation with the US & US allies.
They very much are dependant on US trade securities, specifically the US's security guarantees with Europe which keeps Chinese trade open to Europe and the world more broadly.
Likewise you also cannot depend on China's self reporting, due to their massive corruption & lack of transparency. Their food stores are likely being undermined internally & it doesn't mean those stores will be used to prevent famine. Rather they likely will be held on to for government & military purposes as historically that is what they have done in the past.
@@libraryofpangea7018 Oh yes, another "China will come begging at our doorstep if we do X" argument. How many times does this have to fail to get it through your head?
@@libraryofpangea7018 China is building a new silk road (road & belt) to trade goods linking India, ME and Europe. This is a very smart move. Shipping is very expensive.
Super interesting. Love the idea of fact checking other you tubers. I do admit I'm a bit of a fan of Peter's, I'd love to see a rebuttal video from him. You seem pretty fair in your assessments, I think my only concern would be what types of facts we can really objectively trust from China, although ultimately that means I don't really think we know and we're all guessing on what information China chooses to give people (which if COVID is any indication is massively optimistic/positive).
I love pessimistic fear porn, so I love Peter's stuff. I take it all with a huge grain of salt. His views on the Jones Act in shipping is a surprisingly bad take.
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
Are you serious? This video is 100% CCP propaganda. I'd bet money this guy is a paid shill.
your assuming that western governments do not lie, well they do every day on inflation, wonder what else western governments lie about, wars, other governments, shall i keep going
Thank you. I am a fan Zeihan. But recognized the sensationalism of many extreme claims. And have thought about looking into a few. Very happy this video showed up in my UA-cam recommendations. Great research and analysis!
god forbid you read a book for once in your life right? if you did that chances are you never would have been a Zeihan mark in the first instance. Zihan is literally doing a bit. its amazing how takes him seriously, then again 2/3 of the US thinks the earth is 5000 years old so theer's that.
pointless toxicity @@TimJohnson-x1o
Exactly the same view here
The Creator is out of his depth here on China. Zeihan loves putting forth a American FY angle to everything, but he is correct in China, listening to this creator .. his arguments and lack of knowledge a China's population, Navy, and normal economic leverages that are available to normal countries are very far from reality specifically for China.
You cannot look at figures for China, because they don't exist. So unless u know China, u opinions are useless
he just a frog in hole
I like the contrasting viewpoint. Well done. What I would REAlLY like to see is both of you go back through these four points, but put an overlay of the climate catastrophe that China is facing and how that changes the scale, liklihood, and time frame of these four problems.
I'd see Zeihan as someone who understands the general state of the world, and does a great job of explaining the current risks. He's not an oracle, his future predictions are best seen as a "this could be the outcome".
Regarding 9:12, relaxing the 1 child policy increased the birthrate (1.81) for 2 years (2016-2017) and then fell off rapidly (1.1 as of 2021) even while offering economic incentives to do so. You should have mentioned this fact here. Otherwise I really love this video as Zeihan is so persuasive and smooth. His confidence in his conclusions give a false sense that it's all fait accompli.
I’ve found that the people who exude this level of certainty and overconfidence are often hucksters to a greater or lesser degree. The real issue I have is that his videos are surface level only and I’ve never seen him bring on another person who might challenge his various claims and projections. To condense the 2 decade future of a country into a 15 minute video suggests a significant oversimplification of all the available indicators and data. Usually a somewhat adversarial conversation with several viewpoints between people with actual facts and data points will provide a clearer picture. However, he’s entertaining and does provide some specific insights that can be useful, I’m just extremely cautious about the overall conclusions he draws.
@@sjsomething4936 Yep, everything about his super confidence that he has it all figured out sets off my Spidey-Sense!
Yeah, I feel you. The guy definitely has charisma, and I have to remind myself to take it with a grain of salt.
Exactly. Having a plan for each of those issues doesn't necessarily mean the plans are effective. The Chinese gov has done far from enough to restore their birth rate. Same story for the housing bubble: yes they knew things were bad and tried to slow things down, but the policies were too harsh to private developers and now many of them are collapsing. China is a very big country and there are definitely capable gov officers, but AFAICT they are getting less and less space to make the right policies.
spot on, never follow a single source, I love PZ but there are others out there.
This is great. I'm way into geopolitics but I have little time to read everything that is to know about it. I am quite an impressionable person so I have a tendency to fall for extreme vision like Peter Zeihans'. I try my best to check opposing viewpoints but when in conversation, these unnuanced viewpoints still come out. So this is a perfect video for where I'm at.
This is great. I'm way into commenting on videos. I'm quite an impressionable person, so whether it's this video, or one by Peter Zeihan, I'm sure I'll be sure to comment on either one. Either way.
My dad was exactly like Peter Zeihan. You also see it with people like Boris Johnson and actually even the publication The Economist. Basically: there are things you think are probably true, based on being intelligent and generally well-informed on a very wide variety of related topics; assert these things with total and complete confidence, as if they are well-known truths for people who know what they’re talking about, and most people will hang on your every word and take it as gospel. It’s only people who are narrow experts with very deep knowledge in the specific field in question who will say “er, actually, this may be along the right lines but it’s really not that simple.”
There really is a lack of good “science communication” type books for geopolitics. At least I haven’t found many at all
Excellent analysis. I have been skeptical about Zeihan's apocalyptic predictions regarding China, Russia, Europe, and the post-WWII world order.
His takes always boil down to this:
Every nation is doomed, except the US. Haha
Basically everything except the US ... very telling.
@@ODGC04 Zeihan is also bullish on Turkey, France, and India.
I mean, the guy is a consultant at the end of the day. His job is to cater to Western and American leading audiences. It’s not surprising that a lot of his takes would be wrong.
@@deriznohappehquite Also Mexico and southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand
Peter Zeihan is like that postman Cliff Calvin in Cheers TV series. He knows everything a little bit. And he can string some big words together and appears to be coherent.
Plus
If a problem in the US comes up: we have two continents under our control, we will be fine no matter what.
If there is a problem in a US adversary:
They are done in 20-30 years they are done.
If there is a problem in a neutral country:
They may get over it and they may not collapse.
@@muratbayraktar5035 That is what Peter is doing every day. We have a term for Peter Zeihan talking: COHERENT NONSENSE. lol 😄🤣
@@jimkuan8493 yep. Also I have no idea how people are looking up to a US analyst with huge ties to the US imperial policy and military industrial complex. His biggest lie is the fact that the US is leaving overseas territories and doesnt care about the world anymore. Thats the most further thing from the truth ever. As you have said, once you start to analyse the evetns he mentions yourself and dig a little deeper his coherent nonsense falls apart like a house of cards.
When I watch Zeihan videos I mentally add "up to" and "unless addressed" to many of his statements, as I think that nuance makes all the difference.
He stills seems wrong on a fair bit of things, both on details he missed or from having a different view on how the world works. But I still watch him as he has a habit of showing me issues and things I have not considered before, and as long as he is the stepping off point and not the only source I think it makes me more informed of the world. Just keep that big grain of salt close at hand.
I have been a fan of Zeihan for several years, have all his books and watch as much of his on-line content as I can find. In my opinion, he gets significantly more right than he gets wrong. That said, no one is 100% correct so one always needs to have their BS meter turned on at all times for all news and analysis they consume. Zeihan is no exception. My biggest beef with him is his tendency to be overly dramatic with predictions. For instance, his stance that China will disintegrate within the next ten years. I do agree with his underlying analysis which shows that China has a lot of underlying problems that are working against it, I just don't think they are likely to collapse within the time frame he predicts.
He engages in a lot of doom and gloom while talking about valid points. You mentioned the important thing: "unless addressed". Humans and their societies have survived for so long because they adapt to problems and find solutions that we have currently no ideas about. F.e. think about the amount of automation that has replaced human work in the production process ... we produce more stuff with far fewer humans (farming is a good example).
A lot might change, the fortunes of countries grow and decay, but the don't crash like he is always implying.
It helps that if countries know what problems and path they are on, they might start changing things to avoid their trajectory.
Exactly. As this video says, zeihan gives a good overview of issues many don’t consider. But he doesn’t refer to the variables that will inevitably affect his extreme predictions
@@cleanwillie1307Zeihan's work is not a prediction so much as it is a battle plan for the West and a New American Century.
A general rule of thumb with Zeihan, is that he is very much worth listening to for his general arguments. They are usually pretty reliable, simple and fundamental (eg count how much raw materials is available vs how much demand needs). Otoh, do not take his extrapolations too literally. They are often exaggerated, especially when he gives a dramatic timescale.
Timing is the difficult (impossible) part even if you guess the fundamentals right. As Mr. Zeihan is often doing.
Thanks for this video. At risk of showing my own “confirmation bias”, I’ve been watching doomsday predictions for various markets where my own business operates for over 35 years and though there is always a grain of truth to be respected, the net results have almost never unfolded the ways most observers have expected. The moral I have learned is listen to everything, believe nothing, and be prepared to react to real and tangible threats.
Doomsday predictions clutter the mind and get in the way of taking advantage of opportunities for future growth both business and personal. It messes with your ability to have faith in the future. Just look at all those barely middle class professionals in America who thought disaster was going to happen because America voted for their first black President. Tens of thousands of clowns who could not afford it bought expensive shelter systems. If they invested that money into the stock market or other investments they would have been pretty well off today instead of broke making payments on rotting shelter systems.
Excellent, listen to everything ….same as myself…listen and learn to doubt
Collapse can be deferred by piling up state debt. Then it can't.
If you study enough history, you'll gain contextual knowledge and that'll allow you to filter out the BS. It doesn't allow you to predict the timing of certain things, like when a market bubble will burst, but it allows you to understand the existence, or lack thereof, of a market bubble.
Right? The arrogance of man to say anything will happen for certain
Very essential, keep going.
Zeihan's proposition, was not that their energy security issues could be caused solely with pirates but rather that Russian oil must still come via the ocean , and Persian Gulf at least for another decade .China still sources most of its oil from the Persian Gulf , and hence in the event of war or embargo placed on China , their energy security would be compromised. I dont believe Zeihan was suggesting they have peace time energy shortfalls but that there are limits to the amount of Grain or Oil storage that could be practically stored for this huge population for long term security in this scenario.
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
Exactly. It's not pirates,it's hostile states.
Dont forget that nuclear power plants are also a bit wonky. Their plants pollute more working correctly how China defines it than Fukushima :D
Ok I can see that being a problem but you do know they have that big country right on top of them thats their ally and is currently supplying them with a lot of oil and gas as well as having contracts to build nuclear power plants. Here is the thing about the russo chinese relationship, both countries know that without the other they will be in big trouble, both know each others weaknesses and strengths and both know that they will lose big time if one or the other has serious problems it would only make sense to help them, as it would not only make them owe you a favour but you save an ally that is your trump card.
@@Silver_Prussian They have to transport both of these resources through entire Russia via tiny gaspipe (in comparison to what they transport through the sea). They can build new one - China would be very happy to build something again - but it will take a long time.
Also - they are not some kind of best buddies. Russian economy is pathetic in comparison to that of China - so relying on one state with economy larger than yours to fuel your entire economy is a very bad idea.
I expect Putin will do so only if he has absolutely no other choice, and he will do everything he can to have a bit more variety among his customers.
Thank you so much!!! I watch plenty of Zeihan and I noticed that he exaggerates. You are the first person I know, that addresses him directly. This is really necessary. I'd appreciate more videos criticising him or George Friedman. I might even give you some of my very limited moneys
Thank you Joeri, as a former student myself I've been sometimes disillusioned by peer reviewing of scientific papers. I think it's great that you put this video out since it's more clear (although not as in-depth) than a research paper peer reviewing another study. It would be incredible if the abstract of a peer review paper would be in a video form such as this. Don't take my word for it though, since I've not gotten my master's degree yet because of my inaptitude with the thesis process, but keep up the good work!
There are a few reasons that China will deal with this "collapse" better than Peter thinks. Americans' biggest problem isn't growth, but inequality. The US economy is rich enough to take care of its people 5x over, but because of inefficiencies (which includes inequality), many Americans are struggling to survive despite having high incomes and high carbon footprints. Chinese citizens don't need to be rich, they just need to be adequately taken care of and their form of government is better equiped to handle inequality. A typical Chinese doesn't have Americans' two biggest costs, housing and car ownership. They live efficiently in dense, affordable housing and don't spend $50K on 4000lbs hunks of metal that sits unused 96% each day. Many of the problems of an aging population can be resolved through automation and AI. A single party that meets the basic needs of its people will have more support than multiple governing parties that fight among itself and not serve its people.
A very well-balanced and fair presentation. I thought your insights were well-argued and very, very interesting. Thank you.
Wow, does no one here see the weakness of this video? I have to wonder if anyone has read PZs books and looked at the data. This is actually a very weak critique.
I'd have to agree. The videos title is "can we trust PZ" and this video basically says yes. I already understood PZ was using worse case data but it is important to do this. We must know what the extreme limits are if we are to judge were China is in the economic spectrum. Without knowing the extreems one might think summer is the norm without having knowledge of winter.@@whacked00
I've been listening to Zeihan since his stratfor days and I think this is a good appraisal. I dont think you captured the full detail of Zeihans arguments (hard to do in a 20m video) but your conclusion is accurate. Peter correctly identifies what the major issues are and the factors that influence them and that's where his value is that I appreciate. His predictions of how events will play out though are overly bold and off the mark. It's not surprising because anyone who attempts to make predictions of the future with such specificity are bound to miss. I've been following him long enough to see that happen. He's been beating the drum on the same narratives for a long time and I think you're probably right in that he has become overly attached to them and this clouds his judgement. Still though, I appreciate the guys perspective and I'm not trying to shit on him here. He's got his strengths and his weakness just like everyone else and that's why you gotta get your opinions from diverse sources.
fair observation
exactly what I thought. really great at identifying problems but his predictions on where those problems lead can be a bit wild, especially for narratives I think he's become overly committed too.
As a Russian army vet with a proper military education I might add mister Zeihan almost always wrong on Russian military history, doesn't know the very basics and has no clue about the Russian mentality. So basically he's a crook who sells his incompetent opinions to the audience that has no idea. I wish this man luck and more influence, I kid you not
Took me a few hours of listening to him to realize he is a huckster, which I sensed almost immediately.
Thanks for presenting another view on the China situation. I am a follower of Mr. Zeihan, but I am always in the habit of making my mind up after considering multiple points of view. I’m a new subscriber and plan to keep watching your content. Thank you from Canada.
This was wonderful. Looking forward to more videos like that
Zeihan always forgets that actors can change and adapt. Basically "given the current trajectory, in 10 years X would happen" refusing to acknowledge that changes can be made to respond within that time period.
To be fair, he also thinks that China is too autocratic to be that flexible.
@@davidbarry6900 Zeihan is sucking shit for decades and was wrong every single time.... on everything... not only on China.
Unfortunately, the way authoritarian regimes react often have deadly consequences. China's "Great Chinese Famine", the Soviet Union's "Great Ukrainian Famine", and Ireland's "Potato Famine" (in which Irish grain was still being exported to England) were all results of bad policies strictly implemented. Regardless of how much food China thinks it has warehoused currently, neither PZ nor M&M are forecasting a repeat of a Chinese famine, which could implement PZ's predictions for reasons not discussed. Similar economic disasters can occur, namely importing the Argentine economic disease to China.
He's said on a number of occasions that circumstances can change, and that maybe there's an unforeseen way out of this.
@@alanbland1976 PZ has specifically said China cannot successfully address it's shrinking population problems as it's too late for any amelioration for its sickness.
It would also be great to have Zeihan comment on Joeri's review to close the loop. Reviewers should also be fact-checked.
But it seems like he's ducking out.
Another indication of being a grifting conman: ignore coherent criticism.
@@iamgoddard True indication of a grifting conman, he doesn't immediately respond to a 2 day old video.
Like one solution to the declining demographics is to shift population from agriculture to urban. So they already import most of their food but have to cut production further? Or maybe they can steal that technology too?
Also, China does NOT have a navy to replace the US on a global scale. Sure, they have more ships but they only have a reach of about 1000 miles in a straight line when no one is chasing them or shooting at them. They are also surrounded locally by enemies who can hem them in quickly and those enemies are readying themselves to do that very quickly and with better ships.
I have found that Zeihan tends to jump the gun with his predictions but gets the geo-political facts correct and captures the trend. I don't place too much confidence in his read of American politics for one. He was wrong with his early predictions for the Ukraine-Russia was too even getting the logistics spot on. Nevertheless, I am an investment advisor and find his analyses very valuable and have since he was with Stratfor many years ago. In the current environment where information from even the best sources have become corrupted by politics, Zeihan still gets the facts on the ground right and is great at explaining them clearly.
I would start with pointing out that the Lancet study used in debunking was done before China deleted 100mln of young people from their demographics because they existed only on paper. M&M was not aware of that or he simply chose to ignore it?
Of all Western "thought leaders" these are few who come across as the ones bullshiting you.
1) Christine Fair
2) Niall Ferguson
3) Brett Stephens
4) Fiona Hill
5) Anne Marie Slaughter
6) Anne Applebaum
7) Ian Bremmer
8) Peter Zeihan
9) Michael Mcfaul
He tells people what they want to hear. Whether its fear or hope he sells both and people are buying.
Yep. He found his niche and he keeps pounding it.
Yup, they're an online cottage industry of "China is doomed" and "Russia is doomed" grifting.
And the grifters never tire of it, even as the long-predicted doom keeps not happening.
I think he is a tool of the American govt to look good and spread propoganda
It should be a red flag that the man is basically pessimistic about every country but America.
I watch his content just so that I have an idea what other people are going to start parroting. But there is so much wrong with his content. In some cases he leaves out such important known information that it feels 100% like purposefully misinformation.
THIS,
exactly
Listen to Zeihan to understand the present (at least when it comes to geopolitics and supply chains), but ignore his predictions about the future. He always cranks everything up to eleven.
concluded the same after watching a few of his videos. Interesting stuff, but insane predictions...he also never follows up on his "failed" predictions.
@@Rausslyea but it is interesting he is basing his current perditions on real major problems in china, even by analysts within china. Most would say his predictions on china are very reasonable.
@@nsevv "very reasonable" as long as you dont look at the evidence. His prediction is that china will collapse in the next decade. He can be correct in identifying weaknesses in chinas economy, pretty much everyone agrees that china is going to have things a lot tougher over the next few years and is going to have to do a lot of painful rebalancing. But claiming china will collapse is pants on head nonsense given the currently available evidence
He got the Ukraine conflict and its timeline (in his previous books) almost right. I'll give him credit for that. He did not predict the massive Western support Ukraine got and is still receiving in terms of military and humanitarian aid, though.
Depends what you mean by collapse
Ziehan is a professional college essay writer. Much like the intelligence analysts I worked with. He leads with the idea that old people saved money. Look at the boomers, you see alot of them still working. The real problem is that the younger generations are not getting hired.
The myth is that the boomers in general crushed it financially and that is not true. Many have done well, and a lot are struggling and have to keep working whether they like it or not.
I’ve always said the silent generation and the earliest boomers (pre 1950) killed it. The were in their prime working years during 50s, 60s and 70s.
I heard that especially a problem in China, lots of young people getting advanced degrees but there are no jobs. I don't remember if that one of the reasons for the "let it rot" movement in China.
I think it's more a matter of young people not getting promoted, and not just the hiring.
@AlphaAurora yeah this is it. It's harder to be promoted when Boomers have so much experience over you. The same thing will happen once Millenials have matured in the workforce, blocking zoomers and gen alpha from promotions
@@AlphaAurora I see lots of job openings that are clearly designed to poach the best talent from the companies competitors. After a few years in corporate where I am privy to the hiring process, I have a better sense now of when a job offer is BS and they want to collect names for later, they want to specifically go for a particular person but don't want to ruffle feathers in the competitor, and whether they are directly targeting you. Too many are not hiring entry level at all.
Great analysis, wondering how you would evaluate the claims of MMT ?
Curious.
Great video Joeri, I really appreciate the nuanced critique and especially bringing peer-review process to the masses. So from a fellow academic, many thanks.
That being said, I hope you don't mind a bit critique on your critique :)
- First off, you take all of these factors one-at-a-time, and not all happening at once. For example, the argument that "drop in productivity due to demographics can be solved with people moving from the villages into cities", does not play well with the later argument of "they can grow their own food if they wanted to". Similarly, energy dependence is no big deal ignores the fact that China depends highly on imports that have to go through critical choke points like Hormuz and Malacca, let alone to come from the other side of the planet.
- Which brings me to my second point. As a long time follower of PZ, I think you are missing some of the critical points he has been repetitively making. While China has more and more ships, they are not designed to operate on long distances (at least that is Peters argument, I have no idea either way). They have also no experience operating on a regular basis all over the globe like the US does. This too does not play well with the energy imports, since these ships are not running on good will and dedication of their crew.
For the record, I don't think Peter is exactly right about his forecasts, and I also don't think that is his goal either. He's as much of an entertainer as an analyst, he breaks down complex subjects to bite size chunks and tells an interesting story, which works wonders in todays society with 5 min attention span.
I do feel that Zeihan doesn't present enough scenarios that may disprove his own arguments. That's why I love this video. I think that demographics may not be as bad as PZ suggests because of the rapid advances of new technologies like robotics and AI, which of course will present so many other problems probably. MM does fail to mention that China imports a lot of products for mass food production like fertilizer. He's also being a little flippant about maritime stability. If the US does begin to withdraw more from international waters, more players, state or private, will be coming for million dollar paydays at sea, or a half-year's worth of electricity for a small country that's stored in an oil tanker.
It's literally just naked content theft to steal views from Zeihans channel. One click bait channel barking at another.
Robotics will take a lot of capital investment to properly harness. Chinas banking sector is in shambles and while it may be improved Western investment is not likely to ever return to China like it used too. Chinese militarism, nationalism, Ukraine redefining geopolitics, COVID, and rising labor costs are heavy discouragements.
Well, yeah, they both are kinda right. The problem with people like Zeihan is that they can spark fear and pessimism in people like me who aren't that much experienced on geopolitical analysis. From my limited perspective, what I recognize as unavoidable is the dangerous Chinese dependence on imported goods whose supply chains can potentially collapse. But the main counter argument is the doubt, if the supply chains actually need the US Navy to survive. The world is really unable to function without it? Cannot countries get to agreements on international security? The only scenario this nightmare collapse could come true, dare I say, is a war between two major powers, like India vs China or China vs USA, in which case we're talking about World War III, something that won't give time even to complain about it...
I think with PZ, he is forecasting deglobalisation and what would likely follow. So you can't use today's data to deny future forecasts in isolation.
Peer review videos like yours are very important for every single researcher and also for laypeople. We need to have a broader perspective of the facts and have access to more resources of information in order to make an informed decision about the complex world in which we live. Peter Zeihan is a great analyst, regardless of his sloppy data on some issues. And I find your correction very precise to the degree that adds to Mr. Zeihan's analysis a more challenging view. More reliable information like this video and the videos of Mr. Zeihan are exactly what we need today. Thank you! You got a new subscriber!
ua-cam.com/video/ZVGEyQDokaY/v-deo.html
So... Can you name even a single instance where that hack Zeihan was actually correct and didn't just swing wildly to accidentally hit something?
Did China cease to exist in 2018 like that alt-right fool Zeihan predicted?
The demographic thing is the main issue with China. Yi Fuxian uses the sale of baby products, schools lying about student population, the one child policy, industrialization as the reasons for the lower population, he says 1.28 billion. 120 million short of the official number. All under 40. Also after school programs used to be really common in China, most are now closed down. In regards to housing most wealth is held in housing, but with an oversupply and declining population this is deadly, sure Japans stock market declined but it picked back up as the stock market does, and so their money wasn't lost. It's unlikely that housing will go up in China much ever again. The crackdown on billionaires, former leaders, etc are all to make the government more centralized. Also the have more severe natural disasters caused by industrialization, their genius seem to be in trouble. Money from the wealthy keeps leaving the country. Banking issues, all the local governments at risk of defaulting. The issues are many.
China has the same birthrate as Japan, and Japan is doing alright
@orenalbertmeisel3127 the Japanese economy has not grown in 25 years and china's real birth rate is lower than Japan's
@@orenalbertmeisel3127 Japan got rich before getting old. China got old before getting rich. Look at per capita GDP throughout the decades for both countries. Japan moved out their industries in the 00s, China is only starting now and it's full of state owned enterprises that keep unenmployment stable (and are massive money burners) but are more similar to the USSR than modern economies.
The argument Zeihan makes for why Japan is doing as well as it is despite its demographics is that they've had decades to transition to an economy that outsources a lot of the manufacturing work elsewhere; they now mainly export their expertise in design, something their older and more experienced population excels at.
Not saying whether he's right or wrong about that, but it's a reason why he's more bullish about Japan overall than China, who came to industrialization much more recently and hasn't had time to master this "graceful aging" before dealing with its demographic crunch.
@@ChaosKnight7000 Japan also did not have a One Child Policy skewing their sex ratio so much.
I think it is tempting to listen to Zeihan because he provides answers to questions that are too speculative for others to tackle. I have been swayed by him a few times, but always have this voice in the back on my head saying "the world is more complicated than birthrate and trade stats". I have also noticed he takes trends from today or a few years ago and extrapolates out without accounting for corrections. I find it hard to believe that the Chinese are unaware of the same things he is aware of and that they are powerless to stop them.
People adapt and change. Technology evolves and enables new things to happen. It is very possible that the demographic issues around the world could be solved by manufacturing robots to supplement labour.