Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story
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- Опубліковано 23 тра 2024
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SOURCES:
I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text.
www.moneymacro.rocks/2023-10-...
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
2:22 - demographic collapse
9:36 - sponsor
11:20 - food and energy disaster
16:32 - failing growth model
19:05 - increased authoritarianism
Attribution:
- various Peter Zeihan clips are from Zeihan's own channel (see source blog for links), some crips are from Zeihan's appearance on the Joe Rogan experience and some of his appearance on the Jordan Harbinger Show.
Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort
Edited by Christopher Adewole
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One contradiction is that bring in people from the rural areas to continue to boost the economy and having the option to grow their food. You cannot have both.
@@clanholmes sure you can. Most agriculture production is mechanised anyway. One machine can replace the work of dozens of people whose effort can then be brought into the city and trained to do other things.
Surely you don't still believe everyone still farms the old fashioned way.
Hes right about 70% of the time he simply uses analytics. I made a lot of money from him. By the way, how much is the CCP paying you to talk trash on him?
China is absolutely NOT addressing their fertility rate issue, as you say
China's latest rate is already down to about 1.2 (replacement needs 2.1 or more) and demographic experts see a Chinese government refusing to engage with child-rearing booster polices. The overnment attitude most people see from China's government is "there will be much fewer Chinese in a few decades but it is okay, the quality of life will be better for a smaller population"
@@Gabriel-lChinese farmland requires a lot of fertilizer, which requires a lot of energy, which China does not have. Plus mechanization in agriculture has its downsides, even if you temporarily boost yields you’re draining the soil and soon enough you get a great dust bowl.
I read a great comment about Zeihan. "He's successfully predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises." Cracked me up.
That originated from all the sensationalists on UA-cam. Peter Schiff predicted twenty of the last two recessions. Fear bros predicted twenty of the last two housing collapses. Etc.
Well saying "everyone is gonna live happily together in a stabile world" doesn't sell that well lol
Hahaha
Zeihan’s tall tales get longer as his hair gets longer.
He goes on the principle that even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day
This sort of credible challenge is deeply appreciated. Peter is still human and can make mistakes. I appreciate even more that you delivered this critique with the utmost of respect. You’re an excellent example of professionalism in this regard. Thank you.
Mistakes are human, yes. But if so many arguments are flawed or simply wrong, one has to question the other sides honesty.
If his primary thesis behind his predictions are totally flawed what of value remains?
There is a difference between honest mistakes that all humans make and having an inherent bias which peter has. According to him and many of his fans america has no major problems and the rest of the world is on the verge of collapse. Its not about his false predictions on china, he has made numerous predictions over the time that have fallen flat on his face, kinda like his mentor george friedman
He doesn't make mistakes...he is telling you this crap cos he is paid to
But did he come out and ever say ... ooops, I was wrong here or there? maybe he did, tell us if so
Not just with China, but elsewhere, Zeihan does an excellent job identifying problems but consistently underestimates the ability of people to adjust and muddle through problems without falling apart. He is generally too pessimistic, but the problems he mentions are valid.
I hear that he's paranoid, it may be because of his background and long history of dealing with all this information in his head, the question is when China is 300 something billion dollars in the hole with poor gdp growth what exactly are the workarounds for every day Chinese citzens?
To be fair to Zeihan I'm fairly he says that he that it's still theory.
Exactly, all of his predictions for the future assume that people are just going to roll over and die, rather than rise up to the challenge and work to solve the problems. (As they've always done)
It’s also useful to explore the worst-case scenario and try to gain insights about how the country will respond to these challenges. As the video says, it’s an interesting perspective.
Average age of Chinease manufactoring worker - 40
number of Chinease manfactoring workers - 112 MILLION
Number of Chinease people in their 20's and 30's 70 million
People don't understand scale of things when the numbers are so big. That includes population numbers. Also people don't understand the scale of the Baby Boomer generation.
Peter just says one simple fact. China's population even if everything goes perfectly for them is currently crashing and will continue to do so.
Anyone debunking Peter has to start with that fact. Otherwise your selling false hope.
Having lived in Mainland China, I got the sense that the more pessimistic reports about China tend to be the more accurate take. While PZ might sensationalize his predictions, the underlying trends he analyzes from are solid.
Same here. And I worked at a major university that emphasized finance and economics.
My Chinese friends agree with Peter. China is in trouble.
That's my impression as someone who has never been there, but watched a lot travel tubers talk about their experience. Not super reliable, but it's the best I can do lol.
And how are the most pessimistic reports are accurate? Can you give us examples of such becoming a reality?
I've watched a lot of Zeihan vids and value his analysis, but I'm often surprised at the somewhat extreme nature of his conclusions because they seem not to allow for the possibility of any intervention. I just don't think the world works that way. Thanks for your presentation.
Zeihan's premises are always better than his conclusions. :-)
Who exactly would intervene, how would they do it, and why?
@@fell5514 the world is so chaotic that nothing ever follows predictions. A new war, natural disasters, world leaders falling ill or getting involved into scandals, economic crisis, etc. Any of these events, or their combination, can totally change the trajectory of any country.
That in no way means that we shouldn't try to make predictions about what will happen, you can still plan for the future even though we're all well aware that unexpected things sometimes happen.@@mind.journey
I learn a lot from what he (Zeihan) presents. I sometimes disagree with his conclusions though, particularly when they get political and his biases show through. Not sure he always takes the ability of people to screw things up into consideration, or that things don't always happen for logical reasons. In his books he goes into great detail about US geography and how this makes the US so super competitive on the world stage, and how it in fact is so much better than much of the rest of the world, which I believe is correct. However he then states that "it is impossible to screw this up," which I disagree with completely. Never underestimate the ability of human beings to screw things up. For example, if for some reason the US were to end up subdividing into multiple countries, this would in fact screw this up. You could say that this would never happen, but never is a long time. None of the folks I worked with expected the Soviet Union would suddenly collapse, and that it would do so not with a bang but with a whimper. Yet it did. If there is one thing I have learned in 66 years on this planet it is "never say never."
As a geography teacher I've been keeping tabs on Zeihan for many years and, in my view, he has always attracted people's attention through sensational claims. To me, he is a very knowledgeable sophist. In many of his talks with military personnel he make these claims about how America's greatest rivals aren't really a threat and that countries like China could be easily contained. In his lectures to American soy farmers he always claims that they shouldn't worry about Brazillian competition because of Brazil's bad infrastructure and narrow export corridors.However, year after year, Brazil has produced more soy beans, exported more and more, and has now finalized its largest railway in decades, that cuts the nation from north to south. To me, he will always overlook other nations success, particulary those that have some sort of beef with the US, may it be peaceful competition or geopolitcal rival. I'm a great admirer of the US society and, as a Brazillian, always find ways to learn more about our flaws by observing America's example, but Zeihan only seems to apreciate the success of his country and some of America's friends.
I lived in China 2014 to 2019. Zeihan is right. China is a shithole and is in a depression right now.
'Geography teacher'
Sit down and learn your place trash 😂😂😂😂
@@craftsmanceramics8653 Not the brightest bulb are you son. 😏
Do you consider Brasil to be adversary of US and Western world?
Yeah, you're spot on. The world is full enough of fake news as it is; people like Zeihan aren't merely harmless entertainers - they're spouting lots of pointless messaging at high volume. All that noise really does distract from the signal. People overestimate their ability to filter out that noise, because we usually only consider explicit examples - but that's a form of selection bias; the most pernicious noise is the kind we barely have time for and can't be bothered to think about, *not* the kind we both to sink time and effort into; and that's just everywhere due in part to people like Zeihan.
Your first point misunderstands the consumption. People in late 20's to early 30's are taking on lots of debt for housing when they start family formation. That's why that demographic is so important for growth. That economic demand shows shows up immediately without the corresponding income.
He also misunderstands the piracy issue, it boils down to geography. Most of China's international trade runs through the Red Sea & African coast lines, which is patrolled by America & Türkiye. China has a domestic navy, not a blue water Navy which means they lack expeditionary capability.
They lack the capacity to meaningfully patrol regions along the Red Sea & North east African coast-lines where piracy most affects them. So far their attempts to get around this (belt & road, china sea expansion) has failed or puts them in direct confrontation with the US & US allies.
They very much are dependant on US trade securities, specifically the US's security guarantees with Europe which keeps Chinese trade open to Europe and the world more broadly.
Likewise you also cannot depend on China's self reporting, due to their massive corruption & lack of transparency. Their food stores are likely being undermined internally & it doesn't mean those stores will be used to prevent famine. Rather they likely will be held on to for government & military purposes as historically that is what they have done in the past.
Gotta love Peter Zeihan. On Joe Rogan, he called the absolute bottom on Bitcoin when he said it had 'no intrinsic value' and was going to zero. From that moment onwards Bitcoin surged to today's valuation of $70k.
This is not a rampant debunking. It positions an strong alternative argument in a respectful way. Enjoyed it. Kudos.
Well stated, my thoughts exactly!!
Don’t know about STRONG.
The current rapid ascension of labor costs are directly related to the impending population collapse in China. With a majority of the population base needed for healthcare when the 1-child policy comes to fruition, few to no people will be left to man the factories. What is on the horizon is an absolute collapse. China is at the peak of their current empire's run.
@@chuckpool78 strong might be too strong a word. lol.
It was respectful.
PZ is rampant, always.
I think your peer reviews and fact check videos of these popular youtubers are really important. Especially as they serve a big audience that might not be as critical. This may cause even more less critical information spreading the globe.
So well done Joeri. You make youtube a better place
It depends on one's ability to evaluate the validity of what they r being told by those propagandas
Some of the best academic work is refutations
You can't even speak English correctly, wumao.
@@yaoliang1580Just look at Comedy Show CIA Funded Analysis that china's recent 7nm Chip leap..he said a just month before that china can't make chips Above 10nm Lmao😂😂And then that huwae thing happened 😂😂..Suprised he even reacted to it😂😂😂but as usually he does..he did state China bad again 😂😂and Collapse story was still present there
@@GTFO_0 he's just a sponsored anti China fake news propagandist and he isn't worried that his lies are being exposed bcos his followers are so brainwashed n ignorant that they will buy into all those garbage narrative that he regularly feeds them
I feel like your argument is solid but didn’t address Zeihan’s points around how:
1. China’s military can’t operate largely further than 1000 NM from shore with their current navy (his point on relying on the US Navy for global trade security)
2. On Chinas food security and farming- you didn’t address the fertilizer inputs argument or how a failed Russian state can’t provide such inputs.
It’s nice to hear contrasting perspectives! Good video
And while we’re at it, who wants to speculate how long before the three gorges dam, which the CCP was warned against building by its own engineers, because of the geology around it, is destroyed like all the towns and cities that it has destroyed. How long till it dumps a ton of water all over China massively culling the population and causing famine. I’d say this three gorges dam is a bigger threat to China than much of what the CCP pays attention to. How about some speculation on that?
Or the biggest point of them all, they are about to start running out of people for everything lol.
@@Sweatersith There is no such thing as "running out of people" south korea has the worlds worst fertility rates and immigration cant fix that only mitigate it. It doesnt mean that "they will run out of people" by any stretch of the imagination
@@u2beuser714 100 factory workers in this factory. They produce X amount of stuff. Now their is 5 people in this factory. Do they still produce X amount of stuff?
@@Sweatersith If you robotize the factory..... yes.
That’s exactly what I suspected, I always enjoy listening to him. I just turn his predictions down a few notches.
Average age of Chinease manufactoring worker - 40
number of Chinease manfactoring workers - 112 MILLION
Number of Chinease people in their 20's and 30's 70 million
I appreciate your thoughtful criticism of Zeihan's predictions and assessments of China. I must mention the Lancet study was published before China admitted to miscounting its population in 2023. The impact was over 100 million. Given the propensity for China to report data with an overly optimistic lens, we are likely to see more corrected census reports. Not to criticize the Lancet, but if they are using faulty data from China, then their conclusions will be inaccurate.
All data from China are lies anyway. But you can find the data that show China is sinking from that lies lol.
the claim that China regularly lies in it's data is one without evidence. but hey its always open season when talking smack about "others" right? We all know the US government is pristine for it's track record with honesty. Also, if you actually understood the first thing about China or it's culture then you would know that if they do lie they would almost certainly be lying to make themselves look weaker, not stronger. That's basic Chinese culture and mindset even a child would understand. UA-cam geniuses, of course not. Did you actually finish high school? Not that the so called standards are very high in the US, where 2/3 of the country can't read on a 5th grade level and half of adults are self reported creationists who think the Earth isn't even as old Chinese pottery.
I can't find China admitting to miscounting it's own population anywhere.
Using wrong or faulty is a problem. Using good data is important for predicting or correcting the current problem. Humans can use data to control to a certain point. But mother nature has the ultimate control, like the weather. China imports a lot of things. If the weather is bad in a country where China imported things from then, it would be bad for China.
@@talkinghand4839We all know where this is going: China evil. USA NO. 1. The white race is supreme!
Reason for following Zeihan: he explains important geopolitical issues in short videos in a clear, concise way. Nobody else is doing this, so he has a monopoly.
Yes, but if he is doing it incorrectly, it doesn't help any issue. Can China not survive if the population drops to 600-800 million people? Authoritarian government can literally force reproduction by tax incentives, restricting birth control, extra taxes for less children etc.
reason for following Zeihan is that most people are ignorant fools with no time and interest to do the research and who just want to hear about imminent demise of China so they could feel better about their own increasingly shitty lives and countries.
@@marleneprokopetz1857 A lot of people don't understand China.
Yes, China is very repressive. But it doesn't have absolute control over its people. It's a system where the people are generally obedient, but choose to work within the system. China's greatest asset are its people, so the people do have some kind of leverage, unlike in Russia or Saudi Arabia where it's just one dictator controlling vast amounts of natural resources. Besides this is highly educated people, so a lot of this is not people being stupid but people just closing one eye.
China in the near past was not really authoritarian. Everything was controlled by the party, but the inner party was democratic. Now it's changed to one man rule, but it could well change back if a power struggle goes in a few directions.
Yes, you can force people not to have children. But anybody who lives in the West would know that you cannot force people to have children. Especially highly educated people who don't have a lot of money.
@@marleneprokopetz1857 They can't force marriage, or solve housing crisis, esp when each family has 5 houses 4 of which were destroyed by wind and rain.
You just consume product (and don't think about it to hard)
I love Peter Zeihan. My biggest critique is a country could decline but not collapse. North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela are good examples.
But to his credit he was the first one to call out Chinas issues when everyone else was saying China would surpass the US.
I think Peter lays out a worse case scenario, but not far fetched scenarios.
I agree, I think he puts too much weight in how the current system operates being the ONLY system that can sustain china. That said this video's arguements are very very poor in alot of areas, so i wouldnt take alot of these critiques to seriously. But he also is abit to balsei about tipping points not effecting the US.
Average age of Chinease manufactoring worker - 40
number of Chinease manfactoring workers - 112 MILLION
Number of Chinease people in their 20's and 30's 70 million
I have his last 2 books and enjoyed them. However he was totally wrong about the Russia Ukraine war. Does that not give you pause for thought?
Thanks for this video. At risk of showing my own “confirmation bias”, I’ve been watching doomsday predictions for various markets where my own business operates for over 35 years and though there is always a grain of truth to be respected, the net results have almost never unfolded the ways most observers have expected. The moral I have learned is listen to everything, believe nothing, and be prepared to react to real and tangible threats.
Doomsday predictions clutter the mind and get in the way of taking advantage of opportunities for future growth both business and personal. It messes with your ability to have faith in the future. Just look at all those barely middle class professionals in America who thought disaster was going to happen because America voted for their first black President. Tens of thousands of clowns who could not afford it bought expensive shelter systems. If they invested that money into the stock market or other investments they would have been pretty well off today instead of broke making payments on rotting shelter systems.
Excellent, listen to everything ….same as myself…listen and learn to doubt
Collapse can be deferred by piling up state debt. Then it can't.
If you study enough history, you'll gain contextual knowledge and that'll allow you to filter out the BS. It doesn't allow you to predict the timing of certain things, like when a market bubble will burst, but it allows you to understand the existence, or lack thereof, of a market bubble.
Right? The arrogance of man to say anything will happen for certain
Great video, as a military officer I appreciate Zeihans perspective but yes, definitely important to understand that his perspective is one opinion and not an absolute truth on which to entirely base decisions.
You - a military officer ? Of which crap nation - England ? USA ? Canada ? Australia ?
Small wonder. It takes a microscopic small brains in order to believe Peter Zeihan's rubbish work; let alone appreciate it.
Peter openly admits his American bias and it seems most of his Intel is US or Western which would leave a gap of info expecially w Russia and to a lesser degree China. I've been able to confirm some stuff on China but the Russia stuff has been much harder.
@@nelliegracelongwood5485 you've done well - most of the ruling 'elite' in China don't even know the actual data!
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
I am retired military and I do appreciate hearing detailed analysis. There was none of that in this video. If you look at his summation of the issues surrounding shipping and piracy you will see little data and NO appreciation of naval logistics and what is needed to counteract piracy across the globe - as well as a deliberate (?) omission of PZs argument that nations hijacking vessels is a concern - not just pirates. The pirate flag was cute - but a give away of the level of this critique.
I have traveled and worked in China for about forty years, and have followed its astonishing economic progress with a great deal of interest. You are correct: Zeihan correctly points out problems that now face China, but draws hyperbolic negative conclusions.
Hyperbolic is definitely an accurate description of Zeihan. This time last year Zeihan took Apple's obvious, and significant problems manufacturing in China at the end of covid, and confidently announced Apple would not launch their next phone at all. Of course Apple didn't just give up, they made a few changes and fixed it. Ziehan doesn't factor in those motivations, so predicts a crash. However, the comment in this video that there's no evidence that Xi isn't making big mistakes seems to not factor on Xi's 'zero covid' policy, which was totally nuts and almost broke the country. One more of those mistakes would knee-cap China.
So what do you think will happen in the future?
ua-cam.com/video/ZVGEyQDokaY/v-deo.html
@@sunnyinsanya2almost broke the county? Who told u that? I just came back from China
@@harryliu2008 of course, dynamic zero covid was such a raging success that they decided to stop it just to let everyone catch up.
Regarding piracy, do you find it at all ironic that, since the Houthi's have begun attacking shipping, the only safe shipping through the region are those flagged either under China or Russia?
The Hootie thing is likely a distraction, so you won’t pay attention to Israel, expelling the Palestinians to North America. Some thing either the Palestinians northern north Americans want but some thing that is going to happen because the Jews don’t control America and it’s just a coincidence. You know like the Jews, not controlling the economy and Kanye West just happening to lose $1 billion in a day just a coincidence don’t say anything about it or you’re an antisemite!
Remember how he was predicting like half of China was gonna die overnight if they removed the COVID lockdown? I remember lol
Did he? I don't actually believe he has said that, he says this when he talks about a blockade of the Malacca straits.
I mean it’s hard to trust Chinese numbers and they did actually weld people into their homes to stop the spread. Also cut off food purchasing until they got their booster shots.
He didn’t say that, exactly, but he did imply millions would die due to inadequate health systems and aging population. Many did die, but not to the catastrophic levels he predicted.
Zeihan is the Tony Robbins of geopolitics. He leaves you feeling absolutely convinced that he's a guru. But some of his conclusions don't stand up to critical inspection, as you've just demonstrated.
Exactly, he's either a propagandist or just an entertainer.
Well he does have a bit of that but this video is also a bit off
When it comes to pirates in the book he speaks about state sponsored pirates (ex India) due to how China becomes more and more hostiles to them. They might look to disrupt their trade, leaving the whole area exposed.
He also says that one arm dealer to fund these might be France with their anti-ship missiles.
I do think he tries to get views by exaggerating things though
@@balsdsa lol yeah I am sure the Chinese navy is afraid of Indian pirates lmao
nah he is comedian@@YN-ot9jk
100%, he’s just an en entertainer, his analysis are only good at entertaining people, but demographic is surely not a reliable variable to forecast economic outcomes or anything else, especially as technology and automation are the main driver of prosperity
What's telling about people like Zeihan is this: He speaks with absolute certainty without differentiaton on things that nobody can predict with certainty. He is a performer looking for fame, not a serious researcher or analyst.
This comment is spoken like a person with a real understanding of economics, including the limitations of predictions. You’ve identified the exact problem with Zeihan.
I’ve yet to find a major criticism of the underlying facts he lays out, so I still find it useful to let him deliver them to me in a pop-news format.
@@adamseidel9780 You have yet to find a major criticism of his "facts"? How about this one: global seaborne commerce does not depend on the presence of the US Navy. Here's another one: NatGas transportation through pipelines is cheaper than seaborne transport, and Russia is next to China.
Zeihan is an absolute moron and he makes his money selling COPIUM to stupid boomers.
@@adamseidel9780That's obviously an entirely reasonable choice; yet I question the wisdom of it. We all overestimate our ability to separate the wheat from the chaff; best to avoid sources of information that largely just produce high volume noise lest you drown out whatever signal there is to find in public discourse. We don't live in an era in which freedom of speech is at risk; we live in an era in which freedom to hear is at risk. Zeihan and people like him are one part of that problem - but one we can partially choose to avoid.
You literally lost me as "people like Zeihan". That's when I stopped reading your comment.
My grand mother may she rest in peace , told me the only one with the answers is time , now i get it
Nicely done! I've learned a lot from Peter, but have often wanted to see the other side of the story...this was perfect to balance the conversation.
Nope - that guy here does not even address the key Chinese issues of stupendous debt overextention, insane communist inefficiency on top of the demographic crunch. Demographics alone would not do it were it not for the main issues which the bloke here does not address.
Thanks for your insights. As with all rigorous research, all sources of information must be weighed up, critiqued and used in context. In this day and age, the greatest challenge is not getting wrapped up in a bubble, or descending down rabbit holes.
Thank you for this detailed insight. Sometimes when listening to Peter I have this nagging feeling that he is caught up in his own confirmation bias. I appreciate your rational and thorough analysis.
Very American centric, his history knowledge is sketchy, and predictions around China are extremely difficult. Everything is extreme reaction in comparison to the West. They tend to blow up trade deals and then scratch their heads when that action becomes negative and are bewildered when apologies don't restore the status quo.
The articles in Asian media mocking the new 'China likes America now' rules, Xi's non reaction to the second dictator comment and a third construction giant's collapse, foxxvcon slow down, and W.H.O knocking on the door wanting details about their new respiratory disease outbreak will bring forth some more China is doomed content. Even Michael Petitis has a sense of foreboding.
He is biased and I don’t like it. When he praises Biden and bashes trump I know where he leans. He has Trump derangement syndrome and should look at reality
It's good to get a fact check, at least on the economics aspects but neither one has a perfect analysis of the situation, Zeihan is likely right about the piracy bit as the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have shown.
I feel like the most obvious red flag in this case is him apparently equalling a potential economic collaps with the end of China as a political entity...
@@Worddwizard I think this is the one component that I think Yuri falls out of his expertise and relies on a caricature. The US Naval doctrine for 70+ years has been explicitly about freedom of navigation and straight control. It has been, through fits and starts, changing that doctrine over the last 10 (see the concept of the littoral combat ship, the Zumwalt shenanigans, and most recently restarting frigate production). I think both Joeri and Zeihan, to a degree, have caricatured piracy, of which we all tend to think "disney movie/Johnny Depp." Or privateering on the high seas. When, as you point out, the more relevant point is the US' less stringent response to security concerns, such as Houthi attacks on shipping.
The last time someone repeatedly tried/succeeded in poking holes in shipping, the US had a bad habit of "proportionally" wiping out large sections of their navy or crippling their country. Now, it is using Houthi attacks as Aegis target practice. And shipping companies are considering and using alternate routes.
A less secure trade environment does produce economic effects. Whether it keeps going towards Zeihan's analysis or this channel's analysis is up for grabs.
I suspect it's more likely to be a lack of US intervention when other countries make a trade dispute slightly more physical, impounding ships, or imposing higher transit taxes, or semi/non-state actors replicate Houthi tactics. Rather than seeing swashbuckling sub-continenters hijacking supertankers on the regular.
Excellent analysis. Mr Zeihan, in my opinion, confirms the theory that "a man sees what he wants to see, and disregards the rest".
and his audience r like church goers, it makes them feel better without critical questions
well said!!!
definitely your take on life, buy subscribing to this video. I presume you also know very little about China and the Chinese.
I have regularly worked in China for 15 years. Can you tell me anything about China and the Chinese?
Very good video. The problem I have found with Mr. Zeihan is that he more often than not 1) Comes to a conclusion, and then 2) Finds facts to support his conclusion.
Peter Zeihan is like that postman Cliff Calvin in Cheers TV series. He knows everything a little bit. And he can string some big words together and appears to be coherent.
This is very competent, careful analysis. Your conclusion is right on the money. Peter Z provides provocative insight, but people are seduced by his confidence and salesmanship. NOBODY knows the future, especially when it comes to collective human behavior. Having said that, COMPARATIVE analysis like this is invaluable to help us understand our complex world. Thank you.😊
he is alex jones for smart people, relatively speaking .
bullshit@@tocreatee5736
Agreed, but there is one source that has accurately predicted the future over and over without error -> the Bible. It predicted Israel to return on exact date May 14, 1948 near 3000 yeard ago. And predicted this new war with Hamas in Psalm 83. Next up is Ez 38,39 and the Tribulation and Rapture. People need to be alarmed at this because these prophecies are finally really happening.
Tommy, you said "Nobody knows the future". WRONG. Do you remember February of 2021 when everyone in Texas almost froze to death during that hard freeze, and some people burned their furniture to stay warm? Part of the prolonged blackout was caused by the natural gas supply lines freezing. There's water vapor mixed in with the natural gas and it condenses and freezes in the pipe. So when Zeihan predicts that Russian natural gas lines, running across Siberia, are going to freeze and stop the flow of natural gas, he's accurately predicting the future BASED ON THE LAWS OF PHYSICS. Do your research bro.
@@stevechance150 OK, went back and did my research, bro. Still, NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE. NOBODY. Some make a ton of predictions, some of which are bound to be right. Some guess. (The great Billy Mitchell “predicted” Pearl Harbor, but was he just lucky? Of course!) Some imagine they can. Some others, like you, imagine others can. But nobody knows the future. As for research, look up “confirmation bias.”
I've said before about this guy that I feel like I need to fact check every word he says. It just sounds so dramatized.
Dramatised and charismatic. And charismatic people ALWAYS need to have their facts checked, because they are able to make nonsense sound legitimately.
@@ernest1520 this is very true. They get away with a lot.
EXACTLY!!!
100% for sure. @@ernest1520
@@ernest1520 what are you talking about! Jim Cramer has never steered me wrong! 😅
Just a quick comment. I recently spend a month and half in China, and talking to my Chinese friends I have never heard the kind of negativity I heard this time, in the past. I was approached by a couple of them asking how they can get out of China and move to the US. I was very surprised at how different things were after Covid. I don't believe that everything is going to collapse immediatelyd, but this could result in the kind of decentralization and slow decline that has traditionally ended Chinese dynasties.
I think the point that Zeihan makes on the Chinese navy is that whilst they have more vessel’s, those vessels have got a very small range and would be able to provide support over longer distances e.g Middle East or Argentina. Also the shipping lanes they have to go past on both routes head through the territory of US allied nations so could easily be disrupted. Good video over all and quite eye opening on the first point but I do think you have underplayed his arguments on 2 and 3
They also have to go by India... And they actively fight with sticks
There are no points he makes, it is harvesting view of low IQ viewers.
India isn’t a US ally, nor are the Philippines and Vietnam.
They’re independent of either poles.
@@flyingpharoah4867 philipines are sliding slowly towards the us under marcos, however malaysia and singapore is ironically becoming closer with china for some reason, under the us backed survey under pew research some how malaysia and singapore are some of the only countries surveyed (along with greece) that actually has a higher opinion of china than the usa
@@flyingpharoah4867vietnam said to a journalist... why you talking about the Vietnam war? we had 1 war with America we've had 100 with China, I think if the time came the old adage of the enemy of my enemy would provail, I've been to Vietnam and in my opinion the world doesn't need China as much as it needs us
Dude definitely goes into the doomsday scenarios but he does bring up valid points about the challenges modern nations are facing which are real concerns
The way Zeihan looks at the world is so geographically determinist that you'd think we're one big famine away from Europe reverting back to feudalism and Eurasia being reconquered by steppe nomads.
@@wwpl8371 with how some reactions to the Russian invasion were they doesn’t seem like an uncommon opinion.
He definitely overestimates US geography and makes it seem like a haven when he’s ignore the deeper flaws that have already rendered America no longer a country
@@wwpl8371 I didn't know someone could say something more hyperbolic than Zeihan.
Geography has been destiny for most of human history. Human civilizations have always been centered around countries with good farmland, navigable rivers, natural resources, etc... While the countries that don't are screwed. These are always a couple exceptions to the rule, like Japan, but you can't use exceptions to disprove the norm. And even then, Japan's geography is excellent for a modern, industrial maritime empire
I like Zeihan's observations and data, but his conclusions and time frames are at the very least aggressive.
PZ is the best at describing which players hold what cards, and which of those cards matter. When he misses, it's usually on how the players play their cards.
We also gotta give him credit that most prognosticators who are as bold in their forecasts are far less accurate. Also he gives better info than most news headlines these days. ("$1T of rare earth elements found in Afghanistan!" vs "that was one survey, there is no infrastructure, there is no electricity"
And he admits that he isn't a fortune teller. He is just giving the projection based on the information he has and historical trends. If you want a well rounded understanding of things you'll want to listen to multiple experts.
@@gmarefan One should also be aware that neither Europeans nor Asians particularly like him. He says things they do not want to hear, which includes how the US and North America are doing well and will thrive in the coming years.
Geopolitical forecasting is much harder than economic forecasting, which economists are terrible at. The factors of geography, history, and the human element all come into geopolitical analysis.
@@gmarefanPeter zeihan is a heavy generalist. He's knowledgeable no doubt but when I saw his views on France and India I realised how terribly wrong he was.
He also has an extremely Pro Anglo bias. Beyond that he's pretty good and far better than most geopolitical experts.
@@buck4490 People don't like negative news, sure. But for instance most people in Japan acknowledge they have a demographic problem. You can definitely see it in their media at times.
So I don't think we should over estimate how much they dislike him for telling the fact of a matter. Many people will accept the things that are true.
Beyond that I'm not sure why you think they'd care that much that the USA will do well, for them the USA is an ally, so if anything that's almost reassuring, one less thing to be worried about.
In general I think some of the dislike instead comes from him being perhaps a little to negative over their current situations and being a bit to dismissive at times over their ability to adapt to the situations. And considering his predictions on them miss at times, like the prediction the gas shortages would be catastrophic for German industry, this is perhaps not entirely with out merit.
Another example in this could be how West Europeans are using a fair bit of immigration to take the worst edge off of their demographic situation, and so don't really feel quite as endangered by it in the short term as Zeihan thinks they should be.
To be fair, saying that someone is more correct than headlines is kinda easy, almost everyone is
Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. I am intrigued by China's situation like everyone else watching this video probably. I have been listening to Peter's audiobook and watching his presentations, and your arguments bring a few things to mind for me. First, the piracy issue. I think Peter's point isn't that the US is currently preventing piracy from affecting Chinese shipping but instead that the US naval projection to protect all shipping routes since WWII has served to deter piracy and other quasi at-gun-point "fees" from being charged by intermediate countries (I'm thinking Iran demanding a fee at Hormuz or UK/Spain demanding fee at Gibraltar, etc). So, assuming the US decides to stop its defense subsidy on the oceans (which I'm also not convinced completely by Peter that the US would opt to do this), these countries would have the ability to "hold up" international shipping lanes, i.e. Middle Eastern oil to Far East. There are many implications here, such as Japan assuming the US's role in the Middle East and then offering coverage for Koreans, Taiwanese, etc for a security alliance "fee" like the US did during the Cold War, and many more configurations. Basically "piracy" as in 5 guys in a dingy with a couple of AK-47s is not the issue. The issue is that places that can squeeze others and haven't been doing so because of the shadow of a US destroyer may choose to do so when that shadow moves on. I want to clarify that I'm just trying to get a better idea of what's going on, not married to Peter's or Joeri's stances; I'm just pointing out some bumps in the logic as I see it, absolutely open/wanting to someone more knowledgeable than me laying this out.
Precisely. Also "Piracy" may not be small bands of privateers in leaky boats, but small regional powers that may threaten to cut off access to various routes as an economic lever. I agree that the US isn't about to surrender its command of the seas; it's simply too powerful a hand to fold. As for China's naval "power", I think the presenter vastly underestimates the time and resources required to build, fund, and support a global naval presence. Let's face it, it was Lend-Lease and the war economy that (rather quickly) shot America to preeminence in that regard.
Excellent point! Indeed, US protects shipping lanes all over the world, enabled by the system of military bases it has all over the world. That's a system built over many decades when the only serious opponent was USSR, and otherwise a lot of countries were willing to enter an alliance with US. China does not have such a system, and it is not clear at all it can find alliances in so many other countries to start building a system of bases that can secure shipping lanes in a large stretch of the world where it trades. So indeed it is extremely vulnerable in that regard and essentially at the will of the US protection. Also, regarding collapse, I think Zeihan does not predict any calamitous collapse, just that China's power and relevance will decline, to an extent where it will be again comparable to Japan or even worse. Collapse can mean many things. Did Japan collapse in the 90s? In the 80s it was projected to surpass US in many respects within 1 or 2 decades. It slumbered in the 90s, that's collapse to me. I think China is restrained in its potential to a much greater degree than people realize. China is surrounded by many countries that are of non-negligible power and that she cannot draw into long term alliances: Japan, Russia, India, Vietnam, etc. Even more so, since it is a distinctly ethnic state, the same as the countries it's surrounded by. It may be stronger than anyone else in her neighborhood, but not strong enough to compensate for all of them. In this regard, the south-east asian system is very similar to European one: Germany stronger than everyone else in its neighborhood but weaker than any strong alliance of the other European powers. This instability led to 2 world wars until germans learned to cope (with some help from US reforming their intelligentsia after WW2). Let's hope the same does not happen in south east asia. I do have my doubts though, just because the chinese nationhood is so super ethnic-based. People forget that US is far ahead in many regards: it is safe geopolitically with weak neighbors and two oceans to protect it. This secures continued wealth creation uninterrupted by invasions in its own territory. It is resource rich, underpopulated (check out population densities), and it is not an ethnic nation, enabling thus further assimilation of immigration waves without much issue. Zeihan is fully correct to go long on US and short on China, even if he doesn't get the timeframe right.
I agree. Zeihan never really suggested China needs the U.S. Navy to protect its imports. Zeihan's point, which you brought out, is about the whole global order and shipping network, and the safe and easy transport of goods around the world thanks to U.S. led protection of shipping lanes.
Say hello to the CCP for me
Interesting comment on Zeihan's statements, most of which I agree with. Where I see a massive misrepresentation of the situation is in the area of foodproduction. Not only has agricultural land in China shrunk massively due to the crazy construction boom, but climate change has further exacerbated and worsened desertification in large areas.
Another problem for agricultural production is water. Not only is the quantity of water problematic in many areas, the quality is also disastrous. Around 60 % of groundwater is contaminated and should not be used for agricultural production.
I consider a significant switch to domestic food production, in a timely fashion, when imports are eliminated or significantly reduced to be a pipe dream.
Massive amounts of water in some parts of the country and not another’s. You would fix this with building projects if you had a functional government as opposed to wasting the same funding on building, high-rises that you just knock over because they have no inhabitants. about 10 years ago I believe China was extremely smart for building all this shit because they knew that the population floor was coming out and by building them now well they had the people to build them. They would set up the following generations. Then I saw their building start tipping over every day, and I knew it was just corruption.
Note on Japan's economy stalling in the 80s: Japan was forced to sign the 1985 Plaza Accords where it forced the US Dollar to devalue against the Yen, which contributed greatly to Japan's lost decades. China has no such constraint.
No the Plaza accords only lasted 2 years and made no difference in trade between Japan and the US
@@jonathanaustinstern1That's because the Plaza Accords achieved its intended result, and it was followed by the Louvre Accord, signed in 1987, to stop the continuing decline of the dollar and stabilize exchange rates.
@yojimbo3681
No difference in trade with Japan
Zero
@@jonathanaustinstern1 It's not about the trade, it's about contributing to Japan's bubble bursting. Look up: "Investopedia Plaza Accord how long it lasted" if you don't believe me. First article.
Yes trade deficit stopped growing and plateaued. This created an opportunity for Korea and China to grow instead.
Like you said, Zeihan talks about some real problems but then makes outlandish predictions to get more attention. I think you can learn some things from his videos, if you just ignore his predictions.
It's like a UFC analyst. They won't predict every fight outcome, it's how they are predicting outcomes that is so important. It's important that he can be wrong, what is important is how he can be wrong, what things were not factored into his predictions.
@@dixonhill1108 Zeihan is sucking shit for decades and was wrong every single time.... on everything... not only on China.
Perhaps, but his predictions on China are not outlandish if they are please get into specifics. I don’t know if any specific that he gets wrong. Yes, you can debate certain things but that’s always been the case with academic arguments and thought experiments.
The recent issues in the Red Sea regarding the Houthis show that China clearly DOES need the US Navy to maintain the shipping lanes.
yeah. wondering how this video will age.
At the moment, but China has ambitions to extend maritime power. However, that is not just about headline numbers of ships (although that is very relevant of course).
China has EurAsia Railway.. the new silk road 2.0. Plus the Houthis said they won't attack any Russian or Chinese commercial ships.
@@Fightback2023 did that work out? No attack promises. Would shipping insurers trust houtis?
@@CollectiveWest1 ambitions it's cannot obtain. You need people to run your economy as your population ages you become like Japan or your collapse. Japnification is a slower collapse but one none the less.
13:00 Regarding China needing a lot of ships to protect from pirates - small ships have a limited range, and so they need lots of big ships, not lots of little ships
This is exactly the comment I was looking for when I reached that part of the video. Big difference between a "Blue Water" navy and a "Green Water" navy.
Which is why China has a carrier battlegroup (based around the carriers 'Liaoning' and 'Shandong'), and is building another around the carrier 'Fujian' (a fourth carrier is being finished at the time of this typing)? Do Americans really believe China doesn't have a Blue Water Navy? It doesn't match the American one, but is plenty for basic protection.
@@KnightofAges They have theoretical carrier battlegroups, but in practice they have what one might call naval base battle groups because those ships are spending more time docked getting repaired than at sea
@@theredscourge Sorry to disrupt your confirmation bias that you're amazing and your competition sucks in every way possible and will, certainly, collapse within a month while you take over the world efforlessly thanks to your sheer amazing hypertalent, but warships do stay in docks often; in fact, not that many years ago, the UK Royal Navy had precisely zero ships of destroyer and above class at sea because all were under repair.
@@KnightofAges That doesn't make China sound good, it just makes UK look bad, which in this century should surprise no one.
When you analyse consumption and show higher income of older people to show that most consumption is done by 35+ year olds, you forget one crucial element - taking on mortgages to buy apartments/houses by younger people. Its a big expense, driving consumption up a lot in the present - but being paid of in later decades.
This totally changes the argument - double in Zeihan's favor, since this will also exacerbate China's real estate problems.
China works differently. It is the whole family putting in the money for an apartment.
Actually if people were expected to continue buying houses in China it wouldn't be a problem. The problem is exactly that they won't.
@@neodym5809the whole family, which is decimated structurally by the One-Child Policy.
@@E4439Qv5 Not really , its just a lot smaller now but familial bonds are still pretty strong there like most of asia.
there is a reason that most of peter zeihan fan's are americans because he feeds them a biased world view and arguments and their confirmation bias does the rest
There are two parts in paying for the mortgage in china: a 10 to 50 percent of the total mortgage payed in advance - always by the parents, then there's the monthly payment, usually payed in 10 - 30 years.
Your opinion of Z is spot on! he gets the big picture more correct than most - but facts are sensational (and a bit sloppy). PLUS his presentation style is just so good! I am now a follower of YOU!! Excellent piece.
Not hitting your timing and being wrong are two different things. Things are falling apart slower than he expected, but we can see it happening in real time.
I listened to this and now I am more convinced that Zeihan may be right.
As a Zeihan fan, I have to say I love this video. Great critique. Thank you!
Economies are not directly dependent on population as Money and Macro demonstrates. CIA bot Zeihan says anything that will run down america's competitors
I agree .... a very well prepared debate and argumentation.
His analysis of Scotland showed he hadn't even looked at the wikipedia page. Reckons we have no energy when we have oil, gas, electricity, dirty and green and export a lot of it.
He scrutinized Peter's message without attacking him personally. That's very professional and a breath of fresh air for social media.
You're a Zeihan fan because he tells you what you desperately want to hear. It's no secret that there's considerable anxiety in the Western (read Anglo) world about the global rise of a non-Anglo power and all that entails. Zeihan is here to sooth those anxieties.
Some counterpoints:
1. By Yi Fuxian's estimate China overcounts its population by 200 million, chiefly among the younger cohorts;
2. While it is true that you can move people from the rural countryside to cities for an increased working pool, this seems like something that has already been done;
3. Increasing the retirement age can help to keep people working, but this raises labor costs;
4. Comparing China to Nigeria or other population-boomers doesn't account for globalization, which China has benefited from while Nigeria has not to the same degree;
5. The issue with piracy is simplified: the problem is international norms and regulations and whether someone is policing bad actors. As we speak something like 500-600 Russian vessels form a "dark fleet" with their transponders turned off which puts other vessels at risk, these ships are uninsured meaning if they run aground the country they run aground in is liable to pay for the damages. Now replace "oil tanker" with "privateer" like we've seen in Somalia. Yes, the Somali skiffs are funny and cute, but even then they're a symptom of what happens when the US is not securing a chunk of maritime real estate.
6. Zeihan's comment about the US navy "no longer being ideal" isn't contradictory; he's pointing out that the purpose of the US navy has changed which is reflected in a reliance on Carrier Battlegroups.
7. You're conflating ship size (tonnage) with what the ships can do. There's a reason China's Belt and Road Initiative is characterized by purchasing docking space across Asia, as these ships cannot move very far from the coast. The term you're looking for is "blue water navy"; China's destroyers are primarily focused on defense and/or invasion of Taiwan.
8. To return to piracy. The issue is not "pirates roam the open oceans, arr", but "hey our KPMG analyst points outs that if we take Route A, due to risk of piracy our risk premiums are up 4%, and there's also a risk that by 2035 this route will become uninsurable". See: Black Sea and Ukraine grain exports, or Russia's oil exports ("dark fleet"). The issue is lack of insurance.
9. Your argument that China would revert to farming seems to completely contradict your earlier demographic solution: move the young from the countryside to the cities. Pick one.
10. China's hoarding of grain isn't only for consumption by humans but to feed its livestock. China is home to 50 % of all pigs in the world which like eating things; pork has become a status symbol and part of the middle class diet.
11. Zeihan addresses the Venezuelan fuel issue separately, pointing out that oil does not equal oil, you need specialized refineries and some of the only ones that can process Venezuelan crude reside in the United States. As for Iran, note that there are no pipelines and this has to be transported by sea, and Iran's docks are quite limited.
12. You're not addressing the issue that the Chinese real estate bubble, unlike Japan's bubble of 1990, is driven by governmental not central bank policy. A distrust of the central bank is a problem, in China's history, distrust of government has been a much bigger issue.
13. The measures you bring out as "China's government responding" have been addressed above I believe.
I also view Zeihan as interesting and I do believe his takes have a lot of truth to them. But timing things like China's collapse would be silly. He was correct in predicting Russia's invasion of Ukraine however which seemed insanity at the time, which is why I would give him a lot of rope.
well invastion of Ukraine by Russia was everything except a surprise, and the fact that European (pressure by US) was pushing saying that Urkaine will enter NATO, have actually boost all chance for this invasion. Don't forget that Russia have already taken Crimea in 2014. it was a matter of time before they went for the east Ukraine with Russian population. Not sure where you are located, but in Europe we knew this would come. Now the element of surprise, was really Russia to start this war on "US" decoy of Ukraine in NATO... but invasion has always been in our mind. I mean, most of war have been in Europe/Middle east.. American don't really know what's happening in Europe, and they don't care to be honest.
9. Well you can make China back to farming, but don't think China as old communist country (as US would like us to believe), that will send all of its people back to country side to do farming. The world have invested a lot on AI and semi and full autonomous agricultural farm. China has invest a lot on it and if they want to return to farming, that will be the with help of AI and autonomous machinery.
As always - there is not a single expert in any field who is always 100% right and knows everything.
@@geektechpow4537he predicted it in his 2014 book. So was it known then?
Zeihan is far too sensationalist for my liking, which poisons good analysis.
China's housing bubble was predicated on the fact that these houses were never to be used, just "investment", like tulips of old. They are now becoming functionally useless because prices will never recover in the short term AND there will be less demand for actual housing, since most of these newfangled construction sites are in Tier 2 and 3 cities, were population is already low and there's no incentive to move there to work or live, whereas in Tier 1 cities, prices have not fallen so sharply, if at all, since demand is still strong (despite all the lockdown shenanigans, expats moving out in droves and plenty of migrant workers moving back to their cities since the economy is cooling).
Imho Zehian is pointing a spotlight on various issues that combined will create a worse scenario for China than Japan in the 90s: counterpoint 1) is very well laid out above and is a red flag and example for other CCP shenanigan like GDP numbers and other vital statistic.
60 minutes had an episode on Sunday evening. The reporting from that segment pretty much reflected what Peter said in his episode.
Healthy skepticism is great - and Ziehan does make some interesting predictions - but with respect to safe shipping lanes - I think issues like Houthis lobbing missiles at marine traffic in the Gulf's choke point demonstrates how quickly some of those shocks might happen. It's not just piracy that puts global trade at risk.
Zeihan always forgets that actors can change and adapt. Basically "given the current trajectory, in 10 years X would happen" refusing to acknowledge that changes can be made to respond within that time period.
To be fair, he also thinks that China is too autocratic to be that flexible.
@@davidbarry6900 Zeihan is sucking shit for decades and was wrong every single time.... on everything... not only on China.
Unfortunately, the way authoritarian regimes react often have deadly consequences. China's "Great Chinese Famine", the Soviet Union's "Great Ukrainian Famine", and Ireland's "Potato Famine" (in which Irish grain was still being exported to England) were all results of bad policies strictly implemented. Regardless of how much food China thinks it has warehoused currently, neither PZ nor M&M are forecasting a repeat of a Chinese famine, which could implement PZ's predictions for reasons not discussed. Similar economic disasters can occur, namely importing the Argentine economic disease to China.
He's said on a number of occasions that circumstances can change, and that maybe there's an unforeseen way out of this.
@@alanbland1976 PZ has specifically said China cannot successfully address it's shrinking population problems as it's too late for any amelioration for its sickness.
It's always smart to have multiple inputs regarding these big complicated global issues, especially when they act in a check and balance dynamic.
Yeah, but this channel is wrong in this instance.
It is far worse than experts think.
They are not used to dealing with authoritarian economies obsessed with propaganda.
All you hear from China right now is highly optimistic, unless you happen to get leaked sources.
If China says that the economy is growing more than 4% then it is probably shrinking.
You have never in resent times seen China lie this much about their economic data.
The CCP only know how to lie.
They think that lying can solve every issue.
Now that they have huge issues they are lying like mad.
They think that if they can convince that the economy is fine then it will be fine as well.
Zeihan is like those clowns that write for private industry global intelligence websites and magazines. I can 100% see him writing for a place like Stratfor and getting it wrong constantly, but still getting published each month.
@@QuickBulletin
He predicted that the invasion of Ukraine would happen in 2022 back in 2014.
He predicted that China's demographic issues would eventually break China.
He is just no blind about the fact that China is collapsing right now.
China's astronomical housing bubble has collapsed.
@@MegaBanneevergrande just collapsed.
Yes people can take potshots as to the details, but I need to hear a comprehensive narrative not a breakdown of everything small statistic that takes hours to understand.
I really enjoyed how this video presented the keypoints raised by Mr. Zeihan. I agree with some of the counter arguments, one thing wasn't addressed about the housing market in China, oversupply. They have double the amount of housing units to house double their population. The more of something you have the cheaper it becomes. How will the Chinese deal with this inflationary bubble which will collapse and likely take two thirds of the property value with it. Fundamentally, I do not see a way out without a serious and painful market correction. This is one thing in a democracy, something completely different in a dictatorship.
"They have enough apartments to house double the size of their population." Sorry there was a typo in the previous post.
One of the big factors he forgets there is that much of the older people in China, not having children to spend their parents money, have money to spend on themselves...
I'm glad you did this b/c I've watched many of Zeihan's videos, and while I find them illuminating (and not to mention entertaining) I've often wondered whether his prognostications are overblown and presented with way too much certainty. I think you've confirmed by hunches.
ive found his knowledge is very wide but also very thin. he tends to get broad strokes right, but loses out in the nuance.
you might as well reading gordon chang book.. 🤣🤣
Ditto.
Yep...
But everyone presents their predictions with way too much certainty.
It's difficult to communicate if you have to pepper your sentences with qualifiers and exceptions, and when speaking about future events it is generally accepted that circumstances can change.
Much like when you discuss Harry Potter you can temporarily talk about magic like it's a real thing.... :D
@@EveryoneWhoUsesThisTV You don't need to pepper it with qualifiers and exceptions. You can also go with a spectrum of scenarios instead of "this is exactly what will occur".
Zeihan: sensationalism. I mean "collapse in a decade or two" equals a solid early retirement selling books and popping up in every space
Zeihan's selling point is : attitude, whatever he said is correct or wrong, it does not matter. he can comfort people with an attitude. lol.
there are many crooks in the world, people can feel their tricks, but can not resist because some crooks have a style of life or attitude..
I really appreciate this video! Thank you for your fact checking! Love your perspective!
China is in serious trouble in my opinion. Demographics is a big one. The Hoover institute projects a drop of 600 million people from a year or 2 ago to 2100----. 1.3 billion to 700 million. China's debt has been meteoric from around 8 trillion in 2008 to some 80 trillion now. China's debt now exceeds U S total debt. The 2 together are more than half the total debt of the entire world. Much of this debt was wasted on non profitable infrastructure, beautification, etc. and in real estate. Some 75% of GDP or $11 to $12 trillion of debt by cities is much larger than their central government debt. This massive increase in debt is also dramatically tied to real estate. A couple of years ago some 78% of total Chinese wealth was in real estate. In the U S, I don't think we ever hit 30%. Real estate prices per square foot in Beijing and Shanghai exceeded London and New York at the peak and has been falling in value for the last 4 years. The % declines in tier 2 and 3 cities is more rapid as their are more inventory problems and developer problems there. When you consider that the population is falling, some believe that they have already built too many units for their current needs. Some 40% of developers have defaulted on various promises. This problem is so big that it could break all their banks. It is a much bigger issue than in the United States. China accounted for more than half of global new home sales 3 years ago; is that going to go down 50, 70 or 90% or more? Short steel, toilets, etc.
Thank you!
Criticism of Ziehan has largely been focused on accusing him of being a America cheerleader.
I appreciate that you went through his arguments and used well-sources studies and expert commentary to address them. It's the kind of level-headed debate that is far too absent in policy discourse today.
LOL This dudes CCP shill and half his stuff is copium and barely understand what hes talking about.
Very true. I love Peter and his teleportation videos, but he seems to think the only country capable of surviving the following century is the US
I can see why he is sometimes viewed an American cheerleader. But the truth is people - especially Americans - do not appreciate the magnitude of how North Americam geography bestows a plethora (yes, Jefe - I do know what that word means) of advantages and benefits to the US. That will always be a huge factor in the resiliance of the American economy and policies - at least until climate change and trend of de-educating its citizens puts a dent into that.
I would not call that an accusation. It is an accurate description of what he does. The more pressing problem with Zeihan is that, looking at his track record, all of his short term predictions have been wrong, constantly and routinely, and mid term projections (he has been doing this for a while now, so you can look at his track record there too) aren't holding up all that well either.
Sure, he has a valid point with China's disastrous demographics, but if we dig out an older Zeihan projection from the early 2010s, then China should have collapsed already.
The primary accusation of Zeihan's projections is that they tend to not come true. He isn't so much a man who predicts the future, but rather a man who paints scenarios for a possible future in which America stands unchallenged, and how this might be achieved.
He's entertaining, even thought provoking, but not to be taken to seriously. I think he's a very bright guy, but he lacks rigour, and is lazy.
Of note, today it was revealed that China's imports to the US, once at 22%, are now down to 17% and likely to decline further. Mexico has replaced them as the US' largest international partner, which makes sense both logistically and via a lower cost of labor. PZ predicted this correctly.
Also helps that the Mexican youth population isn’t shrinking into oblivion like their Chinese counterparts, by Cher coincidence Peter Zeihan is right about something else. And it spells bad news for China as usual. They criticize the shit out of it. They hand for a bunch of his water carrying for the state department and US military. I see very few people doing this. Yet there are a ton of CCP but influencers will flip out anytime. He predicts that China is collapsing in that is not a good Prospect for investing your money which it is not at this point.
The main problem with China is its ethical conduct in regards to innovation but more importantly ethics in general. There's no way all the data coming out of there is not tainted with propaganda.
I'm currently living in a country where it is considered socially acceptable to say something that is either opinionated, subjective, or outright completely wrong, and get a way with it. But at the same time, for someone to fact check and scrutinize based on objectivity is usually considered socially unacceptable. It's frustrating. It makes it all that more refreshing to hear your take. Thank you!!
Sounds like a country headed for disaster. Are you living in Argentina? :D
You mean US? :)
germany or canada?
@@user-ng9yz4ut7i No single country is suffering this. It's why I'm so concerned for the world. At this point, saying every problem and failure is American would be a COMFORT, but too obviously a lie. We lost that cope in the early 2010s, so time to wake up, boomer.
You just described ‘free speech’. While that is perceived as more scary by many gen-z folks, it will be OK. It’s been around for centuries now and society is still here.
Listen to Zeihan to understand the present (at least when it comes to geopolitics and supply chains), but ignore his predictions about the future. He always cranks everything up to eleven.
concluded the same after watching a few of his videos. Interesting stuff, but insane predictions...he also never follows up on his "failed" predictions.
@@Rausslyea but it is interesting he is basing his current perditions on real major problems in china, even by analysts within china. Most would say his predictions on china are very reasonable.
@@nsevv "very reasonable" as long as you dont look at the evidence. His prediction is that china will collapse in the next decade. He can be correct in identifying weaknesses in chinas economy, pretty much everyone agrees that china is going to have things a lot tougher over the next few years and is going to have to do a lot of painful rebalancing. But claiming china will collapse is pants on head nonsense given the currently available evidence
He got the Ukraine conflict and its timeline (in his previous books) almost right. I'll give him credit for that. He did not predict the massive Western support Ukraine got and is still receiving in terms of military and humanitarian aid, though.
Depends what you mean by collapse
What I have learned over time is that a lot of economic problems can be converted from crisis into longer term malaise, through government intervention. The Forgotten Depression actually teaches us that collapse is healthy, if the rulers use that opportunity to un-do government intervention and interference in basic economic systems. Unfortunately, most of them meddle and turn a short term purge into a much longer and deeper problems.
Core problem I see as a Chinese citizen when it comes to these topics is the lack of transparency. It really comes down to if you believe the data the Chinese gov releases. This video provided optimistic possibilities, but those predictions were also based on potentially false data. I don't know if the numbers given on either sides are to be believed, but I do know the Chinese work forces are stretched so thin they're near the breaking point. Will they stay obedient or will they stop cooperating with the status quo, we'll see.
When China lockdown that exact quarter they showed Gdp decline seems pretty reliable
When my favorite economical channel fact checks my favorite geo political channel...
Loved it!
Zeihan is a fool, for geopolitics try Caspian Report or Defense Politics Asia.
@@crhu319caspian report is also trash nowdays, sad but it usually happens when a channel gets popular like real life lore
@@crhu319caspian report is realist rubbish
@@SigFigNewtonWell it's working!?!
@@NeostormXLMAX The Latest Turkish video of RLL is a straight up a malicious psyop so much so that I actually he was payrolled to publish such biased propaganda.
My issue with Zeihan’s predictions in general (not just on China) is not that they are fundamentally wrong but that he imagines these elaborate international systems as a being similar to a helicopter where, if you stop the rotor blades that keep the craft aloft, it simply falls out of the sky. In reality I think these systems are more like an airplane that can glide some distance and possibly even manage a crash landing.
I think the helicopter approach is fine when it come to food and energy supplies: After all, the 2nd law of thermodynamics (no energy no production) is fairly unforgiving. Zeihan's problem is that he imagines that one day the US navy will suddenly pull back and everything will stop: Ignoring the fact that every other country also has an interest in upholding the laws of the sea.
That's a good metaphor.
All my life I've seen these bold predictions about how complex global interdependence makes the world more fragile, but instead it's only made things more resilient, as problems in certain areas can be compensated for with surpluses elsewhere. The problems are still bad, and the surpluses aren't limitless, but there's more options available than there once were.
@@domtweed7323even food and energy is not such a dealbreaker. Russia cut off many eu countries from energy supply and they were able to find alternatives relatively fast.
Zeihan is saying exactly what his neocon audience wants to hear. He's an excellent grifter.
A soft landing if you will
I’ll listen to people’s opinions, but my spidey senses always go up when someone tries to get into the domain of predictions
Glad for review. As an Australian our economy relies a great deal on exports to China, so if China was crashing my country would be in trouble.
This was a really useful video. I was somewhat skeptical of Mr Zeihan's claims already, so it's nice to have a proper economist taking a look and coming to a similar conclusion. You were remarkably respectful given how misleading some of what's he's said is :-)
I do wish sensible analysis like yours got as much airtime as sensational analysis like Mr Zeihan's does, but people are suckers for bold claims so long as they sound vaguely plausible.
Well said, snake oil is still available !
I think these two channels are simply doing two different things. Money & Macro is serious, peer-reviewed journalist doing deep dives. Zeihan is giving you a 5-minute bite of geopolitics that informs you (even if not perfectly) of countries and trade you probably didn't have a clue about.
@@armandaneshjooAnother Zeihan Propaganda fan boy spotted 😂..they really think that china will collapse anytime soon as their CIA Propaganda said that!So what do you think You are more intelligent than chinese Economciz planner that have lifted 80 millions out of extreme poverty??or Brough china into a global state as only competitor to Uncle sam
@@armandaneshjoo@armandaneshjoo Just look at Comedy Show CIA Funded Analysis that china's recent 7nm Chip leap..he said a just month before that china can't make chips Above 10nm Lmao😂😂And then that huwae thing happened 😂😂..Suprised he even reacted to it😂😂😂but as usually he does..he did state China bad again 😂😂and Collapse story was still present there
@@armandaneshjoo 😂Another china exper
👍You are generous!
Zaihan has joined the category of the infamous Gordon Chang, who has been predicting the collarpse of China more than 2 dacades ago😂!
The nations with the lowest birth rates are S. Korea n Taiwan. Have they collapsed?
Zeihan's alarmist assessment is designed to bring attention to his channel, to some extent. But I'm surprised you failed to mention the rapid Chinese advancement in AI/robotics that could offset the "demographic time bomb" and labor shortages. Also would have been worth noting that Chinese people and the PBOC are buying gold at record levels, as an economic hedge against the housing market collapse.
Peter is kinda like an underwriter... He can identify all the threats and potential upsides (which is his job as he advises industry and investors) but it's up to the audience to dig deep and determine their comfort level before making investments.
Mr Zeihan is 40% entertainment, he knows we sometimes just want an exciting narrative...
Actually its more like 60-70% , his arguments feed to his audience's confirmation bias which is mostly heavily anti chinese and believing that america is doing great while the rest of the world is in shambles which is exactly the tactic employed by the partisans and populists to deflect talking about the real issues
yeah right, getting excited about more than a billion peoples' economic collapse
yep... that's why he's always invited to be a speaker at boring business forums and 24/7 news channels.. he gets the clicks ... and yes, i am a fan of his as he does do his research and has an appreciate of the facts and relationships but he makes his statements for attention/money...
@@superman9772 Zeihan is sucking shit for decades and was wrong every single time.... on everything... not only on China.
90% is more accurate....
Gordon Chang had a 40 years career of calling and failing his predictions that China will fall in the next X years. Where Zeihan has been failing to predict the fall of China for only 10 years, that gives him another 30 years for his career.
😂👍
Peter is a loser and a conman..
Zeihan hedges his bets by giving a grace period of 10 years. He already failed in his his first bet of 10 years which he made in 2010. Today is already 2023 , 3 years beyond 2020. He is indulging in justifying his fantasy of China Collapse .
Very Fair!!! Exactly the commentary I was looking for after watching Peter's presentation! Thanks
Can I trust you? Peter makes more sense than any other geopolitical blogger.
He tells people what they want to hear. Whether its fear or hope he sells both and people are buying.
Yep. He found his niche and he keeps pounding it.
Yup, they're an online cottage industry of "China is doomed" and "Russia is doomed" grifting.
And the grifters never tire of it, even as the long-predicted doom keeps not happening.
I think he is a tool of the American govt to look good and spread propoganda
It should be a red flag that the man is basically pessimistic about every country but America.
I watch his content just so that I have an idea what other people are going to start parroting. But there is so much wrong with his content. In some cases he leaves out such important known information that it feels 100% like purposefully misinformation.
THIS,
exactly
As you mentioned, the economist Michael Pettis also wrote about the debt-fuelled investment problem in China. Can you do a video explaining Pettis’s view on the matter? For instance, what did Pettis mean when he wrote about “rebalancing the Chinese economy”, “cutting nonproductive assets and infrastructure” and “transferring more wealth to the household”. I’d be interested to learn how other countries navigated out of the old growth model.
I'd second this
Read about The Kindleberger Trap.
Well based on what I've read, by "relalancing" Pettis just means converting the growth model from the debt-driven one they're using now to a consumer-driven one, which means transferring wealth from big companies and government into households. The question is how that's going to be done.
@@bobjones2959 Interesting. I wonder if there’s any successful examples of this. For instance, the series of privatization under Thatcher did not result in rebalancing though it did give the UK govt a one-time cash boost during the sell off.
Former student of Professor Pettis here and worked in China in the financial sector prior to Covid. So the Chinese economy/GDP growth are driven by three factors mainly: 1. Fixed asset investment (think roads, bridges, railways, and most importantly, real estate.) 2. Export, and 3. Domestic consumption.
Domestic consumption is ridiculously low in China compared to many other nations. People just don’t have the ability to go out and make enough purchases to drive the economy. This is due to many reasons. One, China lacks a social safety net in terms of medical care and education, among other things. Citizens are forced to save their money for a rainy day. Two, the ridiculously high cost of owning a home also forces citizens into saving money.
So in order to drive economic growth, the government becomes increasingly reliant on exports and state led investment. Exports were healthy and robust but have already started showing signs of fracture pre-Covid. Cost of manufacturing is increasing and China does not yet have the technology to build higher end products en masse. The trade war and technological sanctions didn’t help either. Exports have dropped precipitously in the last year or so.
That leaves us with investments. Investing in building massive infrastructure projects brought about positive returns until maybe 2008 or so, but you can only build so many four lane highways and tunnels and high speed rails into poor rural areas before the IRR drops. But spending a billion dollars on a bridge to nowhere will make it look like your city’s economy grew by a billion dollars, and that looks good for government officials with no accountability. A good resume gets you a promotion, and that’s all that really matters. Municipal governments via city investments vehicles (城投）were able to get massive amounts of low interest debt from state banks, sold too much bonds, and are now hopelessly in debt.
Local governments must sell land to raise funds, since the majority of taxation goes to the central government. So they sell land at overpriced rates to real estate developers, who then pass this to buyers.
The state, in order to fund its massive infrastructure projects, keep interest rates low, so citizens have no choice but to invest in the stock market or real estate. The Chinese stock market is lethargic and non transparent, so people have no choice but to invest in real estate.
So you see it’s all a vicious cycle. People don’t spend because all their money is in real estate, real estate doesn’t improve productivity. The government takes people’s savings and build money losing projects that look good on paper, and must fund themselves by selling land at ever higher prices.
Everything runs along but they are all connected. COVID hit people and local governments especially hard financially, so now, no money to buy apartments, governments are losing revenue from land sales, decreased consumption, decreased exports, and infrastructure don’t boost the GDP all that much anymore.
What professor Pettis was essentially calling for was a more balanced approach to growth. Subsidizing Medicare and education for example, so that people can buy things, which is good for the economy. But no one had the courage to break the wheel, and now the music is about to end. 😢
such a clear, savvy analysis and assessment! the apt visuals help, too. good work, thank you
Listening to Peter's book on tape gets into a lot more detail than the videos. A global finance crunch, caused by mass aging in the developed nations, combined with the deglobalizing effects of rising global wages, will make this world more scarce, fractured, and chaotic.
His real, secret point is that we will inevitably need a new global economic model to face this reality, and he doesn't have any cute answers about that. In that sense, he is surprisingly un-evangical.
To fact check Zeihan for myself I recently emailed a high school friend who majored in Chinese Studies, then continued with this subject when he got a Ph.D from Stanford. After that he lived in China and now teaches at a US college. I emailed him one of Zeihan's videos that lays out his views on China and asked my friend what he thought. His short reply was, That seems about right.
Yeah and my buddy Zhou says “nah that’s wrong”
this comes across as somewhat lazy
You should emailed his neurosurgeon and asked whether your friend has a brain. Seems he lost it or has shrunk from all the studies. 😂😂😂
LOL is your friend serpentza or laowhy86??? or gordon chang? all dumb anti chinese LOL
@@hangtuah888CIA BOTS NEW TACTICS 😂😂
I OR SOMEONE CLOSE TO THEM USED TO LIVE IN CHINA AND BLAH BLAH BLAH BS
Thank you for this video. I have followed Zeihan for a decade. My feeling is that he draws the guardrails of the possible, rather than the absolute guide for the future. That being said, he does address at least a couple of your observations. While the Chinese navy is indeed increased in number of ships, Zeihan argues that these are too short range to protect its shipping world wide. Furthermore, while he does imply that piracy may be an issue, it is local navies, such as India’s, which will cause the problem for China if push comes to shove.
Exactly, Ship Class and Tonnage is a far better measurement than just the number of Hulls.
Zeihan fan cope
It doesnt have a blue water navy, so it would have to hug coasts and have bases like its been building with belt and road. Thats about it
This was my thought on the mentioned point as well. I've been following Zeihan for a little over a year now, and, regarding the observation on the size of navy, I am interested to hear what @moneyandmacro thinks about the seeming "quality vs quantity" problem that Zeihan has long maintained is a big weakness for the Chinese navy.
That being said, I really appreciate the video and the balance it brings to my relatively juvenile understanding of geopolitics. I also have noticed that Zeihan has been saying the same things for the last 2-3 years (since his book came out), as well as the fairly absolute language he uses for large, nuanced issues.
Now, with all of what you have stated above. It can be inferred that -- geopolitics is ultimately the study of the balance between options and limitations. A nation's; geography determines in large part what vulnerabilities it faces and what tools it holds. In fact, countries which are blessed with flat tracks of land -- similar to Russia or Poland -- inevitably would learn that by building infrastructure easier and so become rich faster, but also find themselves on the receiving end of invasions. This necessitates substantial standing armies, but the very act of attempting to gain a bit of security automatically would in turn set off alot angst and paranoia in their bordering neighbors.
In fact, countries with navigable rivers -- France and Argentina being premier examples -- start the game with some 'infrastructure' already baked in. Such ease of internal transport not only makes these countries socially unified, wealthy, and cosmopolitan, but also more than a touch self-important. They show a distressing habit of becoming overimpressed with themselves -- and so tend to overreach.
Furthermore -- it is not really the length of a coastline that makes a seafaring nation, but number and quality of ports, as well as quality of the infrastructure to make use of them (roads, etc). Truly seafaring nations are one which have a maritime tradition rooted originally in coastal trading and seaborne commerce, then developing a naval force to police, protect, and ensure access to it.
“For whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself,” Sir Walter Raleigh in 1829.
Abdel Fudadin.
He was doing smaller country consulting and I found him to be eye-opening in pointing to things others do not. In fact, taking longer situations and demographics he was spot on with base models. He definitely predicted the credit availability some years back. Somewhere in the middle of 2018, he moved to the big market with US and Intelligence agencies and suddenly his statements were heavy in cast iron predictions. Something rubs off when you start working with US intelligence and it is never good. He has a totally different show and performance.
Your observation was the most important one made so far, you looked at who the guy works for. Zeihans predictions bump up the problems in China and sweep ours under the carpet in order to put our minds at ease. Peter is a dog food sales man and a dangerous one at that because he is a sterling presenter.
Ah, I suspected many of his statements were US propaganda. Didn't know his employment past.
@@fightswithspirits915 They really aren't though, when you take the position that there will be widespread system collapse, it is pretty clear that the US really is in a superior position to everyone else. Also he has consulted for the US military and just recently gave a speech at an officer training facility for the navy, I'm pretty sure the US military isn't looking to hear propaganda be spit back at it, I actually trust the military in its choice of infromation and analysis.
wondering how well this video will age as the Houthis are rocketing merchant ships like land based pirates and the US is the only intervening force while China watches from its own ships in the region ...
Would a hooting attack on a Chinese ship count as an act of aggression by the US government CIA Mossad, or Israel? Asking for a friend.
It would also be great to have Zeihan comment on Joeri's review to close the loop. Reviewers should also be fact-checked.
But it seems like he's ducking out.
Another indication of being a grifting conman: ignore coherent criticism.
@@iamgoddard True indication of a grifting conman, he doesn't immediately respond to a 2 day old video.
Like one solution to the declining demographics is to shift population from agriculture to urban. So they already import most of their food but have to cut production further? Or maybe they can steal that technology too?
Also, China does NOT have a navy to replace the US on a global scale. Sure, they have more ships but they only have a reach of about 1000 miles in a straight line when no one is chasing them or shooting at them. They are also surrounded locally by enemies who can hem them in quickly and those enemies are readying themselves to do that very quickly and with better ships.
I have found that Zeihan tends to jump the gun with his predictions but gets the geo-political facts correct and captures the trend. I don't place too much confidence in his read of American politics for one. He was wrong with his early predictions for the Ukraine-Russia was too even getting the logistics spot on. Nevertheless, I am an investment advisor and find his analyses very valuable and have since he was with Stratfor many years ago. In the current environment where information from even the best sources have become corrupted by politics, Zeihan still gets the facts on the ground right and is great at explaining them clearly.
I would start with pointing out that the Lancet study used in debunking was done before China deleted 100mln of young people from their demographics because they existed only on paper. M&M was not aware of that or he simply chose to ignore it?
Videos like this are so helpful. I think a lot of people, like me, circulate in UA-cam spaces similar to your channel because we're interested in learning about something that we don't already understand. The problem comes when we don't have the experience to know whether we're being fed BS. I am constantly on the lookout for reasonable voices like yours, and I appreciate when those reasonable voices raise red flags about people who I shouldn't rely on for information.
Ummm - no.
Zeihan makes broad & bold general arguments & then plays them out as scenarios.
This person is randomly citing bits of data that might need more explanation to be integrated into the broader argument, but are actually irrelevant to the issue supposedly being discussed.
EG - why would Bulgaria's unique experience with population change be the relevant comparison, rather than the universal expected experience presumed by Zeihan ??
Keep on learning! Cheers
zeihan is basically a moron who is unaware how stupid he is so he can trick other morons who just happen to hate chinese ppl, what a scammer
Zeihan has to be the most overrated thinker I've come across. He seems to take a few data points and make huge claims.. Eg on Sam Harris, he was saying the US needs to massively expand its navy because of the threat of pirates in the few choke points in global shipping. The problem is that Nato had an anti piracy mission that ended becuase it had 0 incidents in its last 3 years. He seems to be to be a sensationalist posing as an expert
Actually, the truth doesn't matter.., !! ask Gordon Chang the charlatan who has been predicting China's collapse since 2000.
The answer is :
👇👇👇
The Uncle Sam is forking out 500 millions USD for all and any kind of anti China stories.
So no wonder all the liars, con man, snake oil salesman are coming out of the woodwork for a piece of the pie.
To be fair, a half billion dollar budget is a pretty good offer to throw away many things.
No government in the world put aside millions of dollars to slander its competitors except US.
But one thing for sure,..the USA await its Karma sooner than it can realize.
Anytime zeihan comes up in my feed I silence the channel unless it's critical of his rambling.
You had me until :802. That's when you said 60 year old Chinese peasants are going be the new workforce.
Always be skeptical of everything you to see or read. As Poe said, "Believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see.."
This content is really valuable and represents a growing niche in the age of social media, where that guy is right who is the most handsome or talks the smartest. Peer review and discourse in general, picking up the line from another contributor is essential and what we need. Please continue with this!
i agree
Both of them are credible, but the most important element was overlooked. China is not governed by the Western political system; instead, they have the "RED BOOK." The Red Book is highly effective in controlling a massive population in both good and bad times.
Or barks loudest...ie Trump
You think Zeihan is handsome? Mmmhhh charismatic yes,Handsome? Idkkkk lol
Or it’s quite possible you have no appreciation how to use his information. It’s not binary, right or wrong. It’s all about volatility, which you clearly and most others don’t understand how to trade.
Very solid analysis. I've watched some and a friend sent me a video of Zeihan. My conclusion was similar. Zeihan gets a lot of stuff right, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's work with some good organizations before (either Stratfor or Geopolitical Forecast) and while a lot of what he said, is also said by it's director (George Friedman) his conclusion go much further. Thank you for your well reasoned analysis.
Spot on.
Zeihan's point about piracy has certainly become salient during the current Red Sea Crisis. Chinese have had to team up with the Houthis' masters, the Iranians, to keep their commercial vessels safe.
China is not interested in Air striking the Houthis. What would they gain from that when the Houthis are not attacking their ships?
About the housing bubble, there is a report from the CPC accessing the issue, claiming that it is inevitable and necessary for the bubble to pop at this point before it become so big that it will cripple the economy, encouraging the government to simply give up on saving Evergrande even though they have the complete ability to buy its debt and share it with their 4 largest banks in China and also the world.
Great video. I follow Zeihan often and I appreciate your data driven and logical argument.
This critique has very little data and very loose arguments. In fact, someone already commented on one of his sources being incorrect.
“No one can predict the future - least of all an Economist” EE. Economics Explained
Just one issue. Stockpiles of oil and food and meant for short term shocks. These stockpiles will not protect China from longer term structural changes like the slow motion collapse of Russia.
Russia isn't going to invade China...
China definitely has demographic issues but I always felt that Zeihans tone was way to dire and im glad someone looked into it
On the food and energy front you omitted a few critical points.
1) the quality of chinas small vessel fleet. Most of these small vessels are limited to a hundred miles or so of the south China sea and are not ideal for patrolling the region let alone the worlds oceans. Even a build up in chinese naval bases (which are coming under closer scrutiny by the west), probably wont account enough for meaningful shipping security when you think about how far stretched their supply chain is.
2) when Zeihan refers to piracy, he doesnt mean the one off somali pirate in a speedboat with small arms. He has often referenced state sponsered privateering or outright conflict with minor powers who live along china's trade routes (most of whome are hostile to China). This form of piracy requires a strong, robust, and agile navy that given the quality of ships, perhaps only Japan, the US, UK, and France are capable of curtailing.
Even if China is not the direct target of state sponsered privateering, its position in global supply chains generally means its the end stop, and vunerable if partners upstream fight one another (an arab vs iranian conflict for instance).
3) While it may be true China has forgone most of its marginal agricultural lands because of international price competitiveness, you left out that they already import the majority of the fertilizers and agricultural on the lands they currently use. If they were to increase the percentage of land they use for agriculture, this foreign dependence would only deepen. If they lost access to fertilizers and other inputs from abroad, domestic agriculture would come to a crawl.
I have alot of disagreements with Zeihan, but you tap danced around the context in which he makes some of his points.
I agree completely, there are differences that can be mentioned that are way less surface level, though I still think Zeihan has done some smashing work
Well stated. It's surprising how he ignored the fertilizer part. It could make or break a nation. Look what happened in Sri Lanka when their dumb politicians decided to go completely organic and got rid of fertilizers.
I will say that such sort of privateering do not really happen on any scale these days. This is not the golden age of piracy. But a world where interdependent trade dominates. And the few nations that come close to that sort of thing do so close to their own territorial waters more to assert their sovereignty. Like Iran treating to cut off trade.
Yes. If there is a war between the USA and China then the situation would be different. But then the whole war would be that situation. USA would try to use it naval superiority to cut off china. And China would try in turn find a way to try to match USA. Which is why they're so focused on developing their navy in the first place. Then is more traditional blockades we are talking about. Not privateering.
Not only were these issues not fully contextualized, but in the very possible reality of a Chinese blockade/invasion of Taiwan, it is also possible that sanctions on China or a blockade on their access to these critical commodities could completely cripple their system.
Russia is the largest exporter of fertiliser, that wont be an issue, in fact trade agreement on fertiliser was already made to ensure supply for the next decade
to me the most important thing about PZ's work is that it shows us the narrative of inevitable Chinese world domination is not a foregone conclusion.
because it is definitely India ... according ton one of his other videos
What nation are you from?
The Netherlands
People who like peter zeihan have a common characteristic: Even in the information age, they still lack the ability to retrieve information, so they rely on people like zeihan to pass information to them. Usually this means that the information obtained by such a group is easily manipulative