Iceland Volcano Eruption Update; New Eruption Begins, Lava Expands Westwards

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  • Опубліковано 21 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 100

  • @GeologyHub
    @GeologyHub  21 годину тому +96

    Thankfully, this eruption began at the very beginning of its possible theoretical range of eruption dates. As a result, no locations or structures are in danger. Only potentially a portion of a paved road.

    • @scrappydoo7887
      @scrappydoo7887 21 годину тому +12

      You have integrity GH 👍 it's always good to see an expert/yt creator Going back and admitting the areas where there are or could be things that are wrong

    • @J.G.H.
      @J.G.H. 21 годину тому +1

      Is this however only a stay of execution at this point? dose this eruption happening now fissure the calculus or is it still likely that the eruptions are going to continue to grow in size an fissure length? Or will that still eventually happen?

    • @davidford3115
      @davidford3115 20 годин тому

      Any thoughts on the recharge rate after this eruption ends? Is it possible to now calculate the intervals in the cyclical nature of these eruptions?

    • @jantjarks7946
      @jantjarks7946 20 годин тому +3

      You were spot on with your time and the lesser danger for Grindavik.
      We should be glad that the fissures are too far to the north and won't endanger Grindavik.

    • @Joe-e4g7q
      @Joe-e4g7q 20 годин тому +3

      Well done. This is why we faithfully return to your video's and knowledge. Thanks

  • @blairistic
    @blairistic 20 годин тому +54

    I respect you for acknowledging that the previous video didn't play out as predicted

  • @elisemoore8044
    @elisemoore8044 9 годин тому +10

    Actually I appreciate your professionalism in acknowledging your previous prediction, comparing it openly to facts and then drawing revised conclusions. This is what makes your videos valuable.

  • @Trassik
    @Trassik 20 годин тому +79

    Don't apologize, we understand you were giving an educated guess. We appreciate your clarity.

    • @MrKorton
      @MrKorton 16 годин тому +2

      No, he justly apologized. It was the right thing to do and I thank him for that.
      It's easy just believing everything he says if you're far away from Iceland behind some computer. If you are from Iceland, it looks different. No scientists predicted a chance of the next eruption going to Grindavík(but him). So to me (and other people stationed in Iceland), sorry, it looked a bit like untimely alarmist and scare mongering.

  • @MLA-TUBE
    @MLA-TUBE 21 годину тому +50

    Well done! Pegged the date.

    • @jimthain8777
      @jimthain8777 18 годин тому

      Yeah, but if it had happened just 1 hour later it would have been the 21st instead
      That's really cutting it close!

  • @DrakoCrowley
    @DrakoCrowley 18 годин тому +34

    I'm with the others. You don't really need to apologize. Better safe than sorry.

  • @ugnbugn
    @ugnbugn 15 годин тому +12

    Dude, you don’t need to apologise for your predictions. You are held in high regard, and no one can predict these things. Love your work mate, please keep it up! ❤

  • @Tatiacha
    @Tatiacha 20 годин тому +35

    It would have been irresponsible to not give your calculations for a worst-case scenario in your previous video. The video was very clear that the impact would differ greatly depending on the timing of the eruption. They lucked out with this one and let's hope their luck holds for future eruptions.

  • @freedomforever6718
    @freedomforever6718 20 годин тому +14

    I appreciate you candid honesty.

  • @xwiick
    @xwiick 20 годин тому +12

    Thanks for all the hard work on these videos!

  • @TheSpaceEnthusiast-vl6wx
    @TheSpaceEnthusiast-vl6wx 20 годин тому +11

    Your prediction was spot-on, Geology Hub! This seems weird, but congratulations!

  • @crazyscott2646
    @crazyscott2646 16 годин тому +5

    Never apologize for a guess you have made. No one can tell how often a volcano will erupt. You're doing better than the volcanologisss on the island.

  • @riverresident4769
    @riverresident4769 20 годин тому +60

    There is no need to apologize about a hypothesis. It is hypothetical after all.

    • @krischristiansen9609
      @krischristiansen9609 20 годин тому +13

      Yeah but you know how people are, you give a warning and they call it fear mongering. With the unpredictability of mother nature people really should always just be prepared and stop claiming everything as "fear mongering".

    • @scrappydoo7887
      @scrappydoo7887 20 годин тому +6

      @@krischristiansen9609 well said 👍

    • @ClaireStone999
      @ClaireStone999 19 годин тому +4

      Agreed.

    • @MarkusMöttus-x7j
      @MarkusMöttus-x7j 17 годин тому +2

      ​@@krischristiansen9609
      People should also stop being so goddamn sensitive about what is essentially nothing at best and BS at worst😂😂

    • @Tirani2
      @Tirani2 17 годин тому +1

      Yeah, but how many people in the United States these days who watch these videos in the difference between a hypothesis and a guess? One is a question to arrived by logic, the other often involves adding in factors beyond logic.

  • @SAOS451316
    @SAOS451316 18 годин тому +12

    The volcano just doesn't want that road there apparently.

  • @EraX52
    @EraX52 20 годин тому +15

    Once I saw the live-cam, I could immediately tell that the eruption fountains and length was much smaller, and I told myself that this could be a short eruption

  • @erinmac4750
    @erinmac4750 8 годин тому +3

    In actuality your hypothesis was was pretty darn accurate. You gave the ranges for date, location, and magnitutude, and the current eruption looks to be within those parameters. Not to mention the warnings, it's always good to give people a realistic outcomes based on the data. You checked all the boxes. Our friends in political "science" and economics can only dream of being so accurate. 🤓
    I hope this continues to be a more "gentle" eruption for the area. Grindavik could use a break.
    Respect and appreciation! 💚😎

  • @TheSpaceEnthusiast-vl6wx
    @TheSpaceEnthusiast-vl6wx 20 годин тому +7

    Thanks as always, Geology Hub!

  • @XRyanlightning
    @XRyanlightning 20 годин тому +10

    I’m in Iceland. Will get some photos

  • @richardknapp570
    @richardknapp570 14 годин тому +2

    No need to appologize for a prediction, esp one with such a low probability. It is perfectly valid to present the possible scenarios and give odds of occurance. You were absolutely correct....and thank you for another outstanding video.

  • @rh5563
    @rh5563 18 годин тому +1

    You called it on the nose, brother. Your straight to business style has boded you well. 324k now. 👍👍👍

  • @samcullen4667
    @samcullen4667 9 годин тому +3

    Lava has overrun the walls around the Blue Lagoon, has covered some hot water pipes, and is meters away from the parking lot. (Just watched one of the natives videos). Hopefully it doesnt destroy too much 😩

  • @luannvondracek439
    @luannvondracek439 5 годин тому +1

    The information and your honesty about how you compile said information is appreciated.

  • @scillyautomatic
    @scillyautomatic 13 годин тому +1

    Thanks for the update. THIS is how science works. Make your best estimate of the worst case scenario and make corrections as evidence and situations come to light.

  • @marshallpeters1437
    @marshallpeters1437 20 годин тому +18

    THEYVE AVOIDED IT AGAIN!! Grindavik HAS to go down as one of the luckiest towns in the history of the world in regards to volcanic eruptions😂

    • @Leyrann
      @Leyrann 18 годин тому +5

      You mean luckiest unluckiest towns.

  • @TruthisclassifiedLiesisnews
    @TruthisclassifiedLiesisnews 18 годин тому +2

    When a town doesn't get blown away or burnt down following multiple volcanic erruptions .
    Ground movement as been the issue , thats it ! Amazing

  • @octajon
    @octajon 18 годин тому +5

    Wake up honey, the goat of geology just posted a new UA-cam video!

  • @P4hs
    @P4hs 20 годин тому +8

    Don't apologize. Your prediction was obviously highly likely, based on past trends.

  • @browneartistry9835
    @browneartistry9835 20 годин тому +9

    At this point, he’s a fortune teller! But in all seriousness, I hope this cycle of eruptions ends soon. My ceramics teacher has an Icelandic wife who had family in Grindavick

  • @vrccim5930
    @vrccim5930 20 годин тому +3

    Thanks.

  • @scrappydoo7887
    @scrappydoo7887 21 годину тому +8

    Its a beautiful fissure eruption at the moment

  • @talamioros
    @talamioros 15 годин тому +3

    Thank you for revisiting your claims from the previous video (not because the original claims were irresponsible, but because it's just the intellectually honest thing to do). I think you did qualify/caveat your previous prediction plenty, so it's not like you were being clickbaity. Glad to know the volcano decided to blow its top early...but isn't this out of pattern? Wondering WHY it was so early.

  • @josh032687
    @josh032687 21 годину тому +6

    Awesome!

  • @sheilaathay2034
    @sheilaathay2034 20 годин тому +3

    Thank you sir❤🎉

  • @LucarioX2006
    @LucarioX2006 21 годину тому +4

    At this point im not surprised anymore

  • @fbiagentmiyakohoshino8223
    @fbiagentmiyakohoshino8223 21 годину тому +11

    ah shit, here we go again

  • @Helezhelm
    @Helezhelm 21 годину тому +4

    It could go longer if eruption draws more material from deep sill when shallow one is drained.

    • @gumby2ms
      @gumby2ms 19 годин тому

      the issue is the first day burst. that is where the flow rates are high enough to push lava to the ocean. since the burst is smaller, it is confined to the valley

  • @RicoLen1
    @RicoLen1 10 годин тому +2

    So all of these eruptions haven't even totaled a quarter of 1 cubic kilometer yet. So despite everything, this is still a very small eruption.
    I mention this because I'm still trying to imagine what a flood basalt would look like in action where tens or even hundreds of thousands of cubic kilometers of lava flows to the surface. This isn't even hardly a pinprick by comparison.
    Would a flood basalt be something like this just erupting for a million years? Or would it be something far larger for a thousand years, or... or what?
    I would LOVE to see a video uploaded from this channel that compares and contrasts this eruption in Iceland to a flood basalt, because I honestly can't even imagine. Every time I try and read about the Siberian Trapps or the Decan Trapps or even just the Columbia River flood basalts from the Yellowstone hotspot I just can't wrap my head around it enough to visualize it.

    • @Dragrath1
      @Dragrath1 5 годин тому

      Yeah it is one of those things so big in scope and scale without historical precedent that we just can't picture it.
      From radiometric dating of lavas it appears the bulk of flood basalts occur in relatively brief episodes of enhanced volcanic activity on the order of tens of thousands of years or less but a given flood basalt province will contain multiple such episodes separated sometimes by as much as several million years. There are other lavas dated to outside these windows but they aren't as numerous suggesting they didn't have the same level of volume, unless they did and it all eroded away but as these large episodes appear to line up with changes in carbon dioxide and elevated mercury levels it probably indicates real episodic pulses of dramatically enhanced volcanism.
      I should note that from some of the igneous petrology papers I've looked at the type of eruptive activity while dominantly effusive sometimes contains lapilli which seems to indicate they have had far more explosive activity than any of the basaltic eruptive activity seen along the Reykjanes Peninsula has had, much more like the accounts and evidence from the Laki fissure eruption (which appears to have been a similar phenomenon to what is happening on the Reykjanes peninsula but along the main lineament which the Grimsvotn stratovolcano's main magma storage and conduit system intrudes. Though chemically distinct from flood basalt magmas Mt Etna's Paroxysms and or the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption might be the best documented albeit far smaller in scale and duration analog for the kind of eruptive activity near the fissure/ vent systems at least until the gas content of the large volume melts is depleted. Oceanic plateau and continental trap type flood basalts also have distinct variations based on settings with oceanic flood basalts starting with pillow basalts which eventually build up to the surface and become subaerial(i.e. above the water) with substantial phreatomagmatic explosive activity over their durations continental flood basalts tend to be bimodal with an initial wave of rhyolitic magma generated by crustal melting of the intruding hot basalts which greatly increases the initial explosiveness by forming a siliceous capping boundary of less dense viscous magma which erupts in large volume explosive events before the basalt can reach the surface, basically think Yellowstone hot spot but with much more voluminous activity occurring on shorter timescales as the flood basalt melts break through the overlying continent at which point the more voluminous and sustained effusive basaltic stage or eruptive activity takes over .

  • @chemdemos3292
    @chemdemos3292 11 годин тому

    I am a big fan of you and your videos! Would you be able to tighten up the use of the number of digits you put on the numbers, which seem to be a bit erratic. For example "between 25.841 million and 32 million". Is forecasting numbers to more than two or three places really useful?

  • @toady..9833
    @toady..9833 14 годин тому +1

    just seen on a live feed the lava is flowing very quickly this time

  • @leovanlierop4580
    @leovanlierop4580 16 годин тому +1

    Weather predictions are also not 100%, and volcanology is even more difficult (we don't have satellites in our crust). But we appreciate any warning we get!

  • @MemeKing-e4d
    @MemeKing-e4d 18 годин тому +2

    I was going to say Tim.. that I believed at the Time nearer the old eruption not grindivik thank god 🙏👍

  • @davedobbschannel
    @davedobbschannel 13 хвилин тому

    Maybe, coming from someone who clearly has an enormous knowledge of volcanoes and speaks so proficiently about volcanoes and teaches so many on volcanism.and its wonders in such fantastic details...but... when you think that in October 2023, when we were coming in to the 60's of volcanoes simultaneously erupting which was exponentially bigger than the previous, which was exponentially bigger than the previous to that and on goes the pattern back to 2017 which leads me to thinking your analysis may fall a little short of really capturing the magnitude of what Iceland and the whole Northern Hemisphere should perhaps really be expecting? What is equally perplexing is how the intensity of the eruptions have basically moved one calendar month further forward every year since 2017 and are exponentially bigger each year. Certainly the May 4th 2018 long duration eruption of Kilauea clearly fits in here although it is fair to say we can observe it far better by the times of the biggest storms when the most amount of moisture in being sent up from the boiling oceans sitting on highly active massive fault lines. It is also noteworthy that Jupiter also moves one calendar month further forward year by year which is why I personally consider this to be the influence of Jupiter.and its moons. I may be wrong about Jupiter but I don't think I'm wrong about the worrying pattern though, which simply shows that there will be an exponentially bigger amount of magma being pulled up through fault lines, like the oceans being pulled by the moon, Jupiter or something will pull exponentially more magma from the Northern Hemisphere than was pulled out in the October/November period last year. Except this year it will be November/December: a month further forward to last year's greatest intensity. Think, for a moment, what is happening under the the Atlantic Ocean right now, remembering what mighty Fault line Iceland actually sits on and the phenomenal increase in ocean temperatures all round the globe but right now; the Atlantic. Buckle up kido, for a volcanist you're about to get the show of your life. A lot of moisture is rising between Europe and America right now. We're talking winter storms of unparalleled severity and so much more. Wakey Wakey Its volcano o'clock!!!

  • @peronik349
    @peronik349 13 годин тому +2

    You have announced your opinion, with all the usual precautions when it comes to predicting the "moods" of a volcano.
    The fact that this volcano seems to "enjoy" contradicting you is obviously not your responsibility.
    it should be noted that "it" had the decency to start within the announced date range, very early in this interval, but within and not before

  • @mystuffyesmystuff
    @mystuffyesmystuff 18 годин тому

    Thank you

  • @andrewjones-productions
    @andrewjones-productions 14 годин тому +2

    Even with the most clever of minds and with the best scientific knowledge and methods known to us, we are at best, only ever able to second guess what nature will and can do. Especially when it comes to earthquakes and volcanoes. We have better success with predicting the weather, but even then our best meteorologists get it wrong more often than I'm sure they care for. Therefore, no apologies are therefore necessary or warranted in my opinion. Nevertheless, the situation is of course distressing for the townspeople of Grindavik and your apology whilst unnecessary, does go a long way in conveying your sincerity, professionalism and respect for them.

  • @irishpsalteri
    @irishpsalteri 8 годин тому

    Good video

  • @jimthain8777
    @jimthain8777 18 годин тому +1

    Is this really 7 separate eruptions, or is it one eruption with pauses to refill the magma chamber. So essentially an ongoing year(s) long eruption?

  • @ruthnovena40
    @ruthnovena40 15 годин тому

    FEW are as honest as you. this is not an exact science, You do a very good job

  • @rentechpad
    @rentechpad 7 годин тому

    To me, while the potential for a great amount of damage certainly was worth being warned about, it was clear that the later the date was that it erupted the greater potential for that greater damage.
    I am also a great believer that lives are saved when we give the earliest warning possible, especially when you have a system that does not always have to be fully primed before erupting. This whole idea that people will not listen next time, if presented with a possibility, is not born out by statistics. The fear of businesses and tourism groups that warnings keep people away is born out by statistics, or at least used to be, until between Hawaii and Iceland volcanos became a spectator tour and those numbers started replacing the ones that choose to cancel. So advanced warnings save lives and the arguments that being transparent about potential outcomes is not worth remaining silent about.
    While we can always guess on the potenial of the damage an eruption can cause and how an eruption earlier in a forecast model may have less eruptive materials built up, that is always an assumption and will be intil the technology reaches a point where we can accurately measure the magma and gases building in a volcano and what pressures are reaching, as well as how magma and gases are moving and what it eill take for them to reach the surface. Otherwise, all we can speak to are potentials. When it comes to these potentials we have to be transparent about the worst that can happen then downplay what risks there can be.

  • @susiesue3141
    @susiesue3141 13 годин тому

    Thank you for your apology! Apology accepted! You are kind. Thanks for sharing😊

  • @shadowmewfred09
    @shadowmewfred09 14 годин тому

    Makes me wonder if the early eruption is caused by the fact the fissure is now easier to breach through and because of the very viscous lava flow it takes very little force for it to burst to the surface preventing pressure build up (with an almost zero chance of plugging)

  • @Hurricane0721
    @Hurricane0721 21 хвилина тому

    There's no need to apologize when you professionally expressed your initial predictions in terms of statistical odds. Sometimes the lesser odds come true! Volcanology is not always an exact science, especially when it comes to predicting the strength and nature of a future eruption.

  • @johnfaulders9880
    @johnfaulders9880 21 годину тому +2

    It’s not completely unexpected I don’t think!

  • @jamesalias595
    @jamesalias595 18 годин тому

    I wonder how much height has been added. While the on-going long term rifting would make the land to lower, and additional lava would also weigh down the surrounding terrain, it would also add volume and thus height. How much higher is it today that before this was initially uplifted years ago.

  • @cyberhornthedragon
    @cyberhornthedragon 16 годин тому +1

    dont appoligize for a very good scientific estimate you did what you needed to do and you were being very cautious at that

  • @Tjalve70
    @Tjalve70 14 годин тому +1

    You have nothing to apologise for.
    If you 10 times say that something is likely to happen, because it has a90% chance of happening, then on average once out of those 10 times, it will not happen. That does not mean you should apologise for the warning.
    So, this eruption happened at the earliest point that you estimated. That means you were correct. But it also means the eruption will be smaller than you estimated. That's what happens when you deal with unknowns and estimates.

  • @AnthonyLoconte-u6w
    @AnthonyLoconte-u6w 11 годин тому

    Where else on the planet can an effusive eruption take place from almost nonstop magma emplacement like this? Kilauea has the capability to erupt for decades. Anywhere else?

  • @unkelib4391
    @unkelib4391 15 годин тому +1

    oh it is actually bad due to a unexpected heigh out floe and Svartsengi powerplant and Bluelagun are fare from out of danger only the next couple of weeks will tell if they survive

  • @aoilpe
    @aoilpe 14 годин тому

    I’m glad this eruption is not a real threat …

  • @loristephens3016
    @loristephens3016 14 годин тому

    I think they need to either reroute that poor road, or build a bridge. 😂 Glad Grindavik is safe again.

  • @Amandalynn6350
    @Amandalynn6350 21 годину тому +2

  • @Mp57navy
    @Mp57navy 7 годин тому

    Reykjanes had an ejakulatio preacox

  • @melissaharris3389
    @melissaharris3389 20 годин тому

    Sometimes it's good to be wrong.

  • @RiddleBoxBree
    @RiddleBoxBree 21 годину тому +3

    was there a quake swarm before this one began?

    • @Helezhelm
      @Helezhelm 21 годину тому +5

      Yes, it lasted around 40 min before erupting.

  • @LiterallyWho1917
    @LiterallyWho1917 19 годин тому

    In conclusion: Nothing Ever Happens

  • @scrappydoo7887
    @scrappydoo7887 21 годину тому

    Yoyoyo

  • @ThomasistheTwin
    @ThomasistheTwin 3 години тому

    This is the 6th eruption this year and its during the solar maximum and the lunar year of the dragon

  • @sean..L
    @sean..L 17 годин тому

    I give it 9 days

  • @spocksdaughter9641
    @spocksdaughter9641 18 годин тому +1

    ANY positive news Anywhere is welcome. No surprise you post value of an entirely dif kind. Make up some graphs or charts please for #seven for 2024.

  • @ericUtr
    @ericUtr 10 годин тому

    Is this voice generated? It's impossible to listen to..... :(

  • @Lewotobitheking
    @Lewotobitheking 6 годин тому

    e ne kajete otkde da se metna veche to ne se izdurja

  • @GJP1169
    @GJP1169 12 годин тому +1

    Mistake that why they have erasers on pencils nobody's perfect.

  • @afvasmr8035
    @afvasmr8035 14 годин тому

    There goes net zero thanks a lot volcano

  • @koharumi1
    @koharumi1 17 годин тому +1

    Disappointed that this one is so small :(
    When will it ever reach the ocean?

  • @viggojorgensson4708
    @viggojorgensson4708 16 годин тому

    Just a small local event. We Icelanders really do not bother except the few people around. That has ZERO to do with the airport. This is why we prefer that Icelandic local geologs to explain the situation.

  • @MrKorton
    @MrKorton 16 годин тому +1

    Yeah so much for that untimely alarmist stuff about Grindavík. Apology accepted though 😊

  • @michaeldomansky8497
    @michaeldomansky8497 11 годин тому

    Love your analysis, but you don’t have to stroke your own ego …. We know you know your “stuff” …. Just give us the facts …..

  • @FalconXE302
    @FalconXE302 18 годин тому

    You jump to conclusions far to quick to be taken seriously.