Handicapping Fundamentals and Beating the Game
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- Опубліковано 28 сер 2024
- When handicapping horses good fundamentals are so important. Whether it is reading past performances, looking at thoro-graph, watching replays, or doing whatever works for you and using what is in your arsenal, there is a right and wring way of doing it.
The same applies to wagering, and money management. Ticket structure, knowing how much of your bankroll to invest, and knowing when to go for the kill or pass are vital elements equally as important as picking winners.
Where and from who you learn is also crucial. Regardless of what level you are at two things always remain true. Your opinion is the most important one and a second set of well trained experienced eyes never hurts a la TRACKING TRIPS at pastthewire.com
In this video professional player Jonathan Stettin shares some keys to becoming a better bettor and essentials to not just grinding out a few extra dollars but to beating the game and taking down scores.
Cash less but win more is one of the things Jon has been telling people for years. You have to know how to make it count when you're right in a game where we all will be wrong more often than we are right.
Be armed with the tools you need. One of the reasons so few beat the game like Jon has is many of these concepts go against human nature which is to cash as many tickets as possible, thus prompting people to use more horses than they should and create additional wagering hurdles.
Learn how not to fall into the traps that will put you on that long list of people who have no shot at beating this game before the horses even get to the starting gate.
Join us for a deep dive into improving your game and having the proper fundamentals in place.
👍 Greatest show on Earth !!
Are you going to go over anything for the Haskell. Or thorough graph numbers for the Haskell
Thanks again
Keep it coming . looking to see 👀 what you think .
This is such a great seminar that I had marked it and now went through it for the second time before the Pegasus weekend.
thank you, much appreciated
This is so good while watching it hit a 2500 trifecta using his ticket structure that I usually wouldn't
Wow that's was up
Wow. Fantastic video! Classic!
Thank you very much!!!
Good stuff. He knows what’s up. 1:15:35 😅
Good stuff fr cause u gave me some valid confirmation about what not to do. One thing I didn't hear u touch on is probability of a horse going off stride or galloping. Usually when I hear announcer say a horse galloped last time, probably don't take it, cause it very well can do it again.
Very educational show. Looking forward for more videos like this one.
thank you!
John please continue to speak out especially on subjects like the tragedy of Alydar. I am not surprised anymore with people in the industry, analysts for tv, tracks etc they ALL do not respond to the Alydar event. They shut down even when you see them in person its astonishing. I see the term gelding sticks with this sorry group. Thank you for you not ignoring something like this. You do care.
thank you and you can count on it
Thanks John !
I just got back from Africa .
I went running 🏃♂️ with the Lions. Thanks for the friendly score 👍 !
Negs
Thank you very much for your insights. Our philosophies are pretty much the same. The difference is that I have been a grinder for 50 years, but over the last year, I have been reaching out for going for the jugular a bit more. Now, this webinar has given me the confidence that that is probably the best overall strategy. I am not wagering again until Memorial Day and I will be prepared. Looking forward to ripping out the heart of a race or two.
just a matter of time, you'll do it
The main thing I got out of your webinar was that these guys on tv that give you thie picks help me LO
SE I’m not losing with them anymore
Just joined your channel bro. Looking forward to using your strategys 🐎🐎💰
any questions reach out anytime
John, great seminar. Very insightful!I just joined your handicapping membership. Looking forward to seeing what’s up
Grazie, much appreciated!
John, enjoyed the comments and advice. When you go to the races you do the prep work and go to play. You aren’t there to give free advice and also potentially reduce the dividend. If you don’t do the work and apply the disabling, then you can’t end up in front over time. The advice provided is universal. I am in Australia.
1000%
Bravo ! Another great show. Thank you again for the insight to the game. I knew I came to the right place. Where I go to bet , I knew I was smart enough NOT to listen to advice from them . lol. Advice for bad beats. I played baseball all my life till 21yo. You're going to give up a home run now and then . Get over it cause the next batter is up. Get him out. Lastly...a monks advice to a happy life is... Clinging leads to suffering.
thank you
Awesome video buddy , great advice how to go about having a punt and and how to decide on the bet types and what to look for etc and much more , taking notes mate I’m only the occasional punter with small money so this helps a lot , if I think I’m getting a bit of a grip on things I just might really try to knuckle down on doing it right , appreciate your content and your sharing to help others in the game , liked and subscribed . Fantastic video. 👍💰💰💰💰💰💰 😁
That was a great video. Thanks!
Grazie!
I am trained to pick Longshot. So, what I've noticed my bombs I like often come 4th( in a decent size field) ..I'm not big Super guy but if I make a little dive in that pool. I Single my Bomb I like in 4th. Or 3rd and 4th. But I have to like it and 20to1 or above. Advantage? Makes affordable ticket singling the spot(s). Bless..good useful convo
grazie!
I'm very glad I found this channel. I don't believe in hedging or boxing either.
Thank you, we are as well!
Great discussion and conversations! Keep these type of things coming.
Thank you and we will
Pass the wire and Larry rolla are home free 156!3
I think this is the video where you recommended people go look at Frosted's 2015 Ky. Derby. My God, that horse looks half blind! He may have been near-sighted or far-sighted or astigmatic. Look how odd he holds his head! His head is held high, very still. After the leaders cross the finish line, he dips his head down low like he wants to extend his neck! "There's clear ground in front of me now!!! I can run without having to watch all those horses on all sides of me!" What a horse, but his running history is full of erratic actions!! He can't see!!! They should have pulled those stupid blinkers off and had a human eye doctor look at him! My horse had an eye disease, and I did that. I have bad eyes too. I can tell he has some problem. And he could have beat American Pharoah, it looks like.
Grazie :)
Looking for improvement, back class whether its the Tomlinson speed ratings or beyer figures. All races are built from pace. Im a big believer in looking to see who ran together in the past and who beat who.
No argument
Yes we talked about the 3rd race at Saratoga opening day the 3 this horse exploded Robert at his best !!
You Need Other Factors to Beat The Game But "Patience" is Probably The Most Important Factor
Hi Jonathan appreciate
the good videos new to the channel..I'm trying to become better at structuring my bets for profit and you mentioned Mark Di Lorenzo had some good content on this but i cant seem to find any of his videos or articles..Hopefully you can steer me in the right direction,,Keep up the good work thank you
body language and trips are powerful tools but that aside.... anyone worth their salt needs to quantify a horses chances in a given race into a single number.
Be it a sheet number or a way a person makes their own number its something that most of the good handicappers do.
If you dont keep your approach uniform from race to race and from day to day its a bad way to start.
With all that said guys will go 4, 5, 6 days where they cant do anything right and then they can have 2 or 3 days where they cant do anything wrong.
Best advice I can give is keep it a hobby you are not gonna turn betting horses into a side job. And most importent of all Dont bet with money you cant afford to lose.
I have played horses all my life BUT I ALWAYS made sure there was food on the table and the rent was paid 1st.
My god son had them all
So how many horses do you take per race
How does the 10 cent super affect the bet?
I'll give you 2 very bad beats and the stupidest move I made. Stewards robbed me when they took down Shes a Tiger in the BC (cost me $50K) Last day at Golden Gate P6 leg 4 Jockeys refuse to race on Turf I get $6K for 40 consilations which I would have given up. I had All in leg 4 won leg 5 and would have had 1/2 the field in leg 6 for $100s of thousands. As for my stupidity I hit the P4 George Vancouver, Groupie Doll, Tapizar, Mizdirection the played the Super Lumber Guy - Trinniberg - All - All and did not reverse it even though I was up $3,500 from the P4 and the Super paid $50K. There are so many ways to lose but when you win ;) Great show Love the Hammer
She's a Tiger DQ cost me too, ouch. A big early pick 5 if memory serves correct.
Andy beyer was a guy who bet his opinion his method made money for years until his numbers became public then the prices fell ray taulbot and h.mahl were the fist to incorporate pace into numbers
1500 IN 1980 WOULD BE WORTH 7500 TODAY
John how do you handicap a race with no speed . Thats where a struggle at?🐎
There is always speed, sometimes it is just tricky to figure out who it is going to be. one thing that can help is to look at the fractions of the races the horses are coming out of, who is closest to the fastest fractions will likely set the pace in a race without an obvious pace setter. I also look if anyone is coming out of sprints or shorter faster paced races, and for a jockey who likes to gun, maybe an inside draw in a route. Challenging for sure, but hope that helps a bit.
@@PastTheWireTV Thanks bro 👊
Why even play a race like that ? So few guys have the discipline to play ONLY the 3 races a day they Really Like.
Playing every race on the card and or most of the races at 3 tracks at the same time is the fast road to the poor house.
Half the battle in this game is picking your spots.
The other thing I would say is this when the betting for a race opens say to yourself I like this horse. IF The horse you like moves lower in odds ( more often than not) as post time gets closer you then know you are taking your 1st steps to being a better handicapper.
The other thing i would say is Dont over analyse. If you look at a race on paper and you dont know who you really like in the 1st 5 or 6 mins of looking at that race it is probably a race you should be avoiding.
@@alivstyson1864 I agree you do have too pick your spot,s but unfortunately it's some big stakes race dont have alot of national speed . Some handicappers would take the horse with tactical speed. Or a horse that can stay close too the pace
@@alivstyson1864 You have to have discipline to have any shot long term but you're right very few have it.
LoL ..Gives out a horss and people run to the window..hilarious!
For me if I have a 5/1 win. 'I go all all. But if the plodder is 25/1-- shit. 4th on some small tickets!
Just think of it from a Rolex perspective. Back in the 90’s you can get a Rolex for 3K . Not no more 😂😂😂
Good point
I’m watching hoping I can learn something because I’m basically a loser
no way, not a loser, don't say it or think it as it is not true.
I wish u would talk more on trainers angles like 3 off layoff give a last race then back on dirt o r u don't believe in them ?
No I do and I will try. Thanks.
no one beats this game no one
that is just not true
@@PastTheWireTV some guys are better than others zero doubt. And I have heard "stories" of a few guys who beat the game but they are just that. stories. I have yet to see anyone demonstrate that in a documented irrefutable manner over any extended period of time. 15% take out is brutal to overcome
@@alivstyson1864 very few for sure, but I did it for years, and know a few who do it now, two without rebates. It is more or as much work as any job or business, lots of sacrifices also.
@@alivstyson1864 average takeout is about 22-23%.
@@TDFlorida on exotics mingled with win bet averaged ahould be about 22%. Win bet only should be about 15%
You have to beat the drug cheaters, race fixers and high takeout. Don't gamble on horse racing until they fix these 3 things.
@@nycitylifeandhistory takeout was much lower years ago.
@@nycitylifeandhistory wat
Horseplayers die broke...my dads words...
the game can turn you into a millionaire, if you're a billionaire! that's why if you play you have to be prepared
Thats the truth