Can China Get Enough Troops To Taiwan Right Now To Win?
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- Опубліковано 27 чер 2024
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They won’t plan to invade. That is plan B (with all the “civilian” ships which are technically also under command of the PRC). The main plan is to blockade.
@卐 Just trolling around dumb vegetables putting trolling in your name ruins your goal, and the fact that you're bad at it considering Russia did invade Chechnya.
@卐 Just trolling around dumb vegetables ooo I’ll
Covert Cabal, you didn't factor in the fact that the Chinese mandated their civilian vessels to double as amphibious assault troop carriers in their construction. They can dump far more than just a handful of brigades at a time, but with unprotected civilian craft. Their strategy likely revolves around blockading Taiwan, strangling them from food and reinforcements, bombarding the coast, and then finally making a landing once their desired beachheads are nothing more than rubble making it easier to dump a hundred thousand troops onto the beach. This relies heavily on their ability to deny US naval intervention, but that's the purpose of their long-range high precision missiles they've been building.
The most plausible scenario would be that China spends two days bombarding the beach before attempting a landing only if they managed to sink one or more US carriers.
@卐 Just trolling around dumb vegetables Get a life, troll.
It will be called a very, very special military operation
no it'll be called the continuation of the civil war
it called reunification
@@breadnewbie6326 牛B
@@breadnewbie6326 Have you ever asked the Taiwanese if they WANT to be reunified or is asking what the people want Anathema to you people of what Putin describes as the "Multipolar world"?
我是台灣人，我認為我們不會堅強抵抗共軍，因為台灣人和中國大陸人的文化，種族，語言都是一致的。在戰爭中，台灣軍隊軍人的抵抗程度會決定他們投降之後轉變為解放軍的待遇。
I am Taiwanese, and I don't think we will strongly resist the communist army, because the culture, race, and language of Taiwanese and mainlanders are the same. In a war, the degree of resistance of Taiwanese military personnel will determine how they will be treated after surrendering and switching to the CCP Army.
Might be easier to keep dumping dirt in the straight to make a land bridge.
Alexander the Great agrees
@@eclark2006 rember Tyrus👍
or fill the strait up with dirt like they did in south china sea.
imagine china slowly building land bridges in the taiwan straight.
that's how Masada revolt ended.
Just airdrop 50 million PLA infantrymen without parachutes
😆
sounds like a plan
@@juhotuho10 a PLA~n
Eventually they will start surviving the fall
PLA infantryman: “so where we dropping bois?”
Russia's way of doing urban combat....is to not do urban combat. Just level the city.
You blind he did say they level cities
@@bobnoneya1267 Can you not read?
That's how you do urban combat, if you want to win, artillery shells are more important than lives.
It's very ineffective for one. Also, you can't eliminate all defending forces. The defenders will use the rubble to fight you.
If Russia would've leveled the city like US, believe me this would've been easier for them. "Leveling" cities and not giving a shit about civilian casualties is a US tactic. You don't know anything because there's plenty of videos of urban warfare in Ukraine.
It’s not the landings, its keeping them supplied. If the ship to shore is interrupted for 72 hrs its game over
They couldn't land them either.
The last time this was tried there were no anti ship guided missiles.
@@Marvin-dg8vj And there were no missile defense systems, which Chinese ships employ
Which will definitely happen since the Taiwan Strait is having a few island groups nobody has ever heard from, also owned by Taiwan.
Right supplies matter….but it most definitely is the landings
Amphibious assault is one of the most challenging attack to execute especially in a modern setting with modern technology. Laser range finders and similar weapon systems can shoot at troop transport before making landfall unlike WW2 DDay landing in which they had to wait for the landing.
The next most difficult is urban warfare. Which would be the next thing China would have to do.
They're gonna need a lot of recon drones and pin-point-accuracy artillery fire for urban combat.
@@mirceazaharia2094 An interesting fact is that China, like Russia lacks precision munitions, and the ones it does have are very limited in number or capability. Which means that they'll unfortunately resort to the Russian way of urban warfare, which is to remove the "urban" part of it.
I know video games are not an accurate way to gague the effectiveness of weapons, but in one naval game I played, I would shoot a dozen anti ship missiles into a general area without a target. I knew the enemy was there, but I did not know where, so I put out a spread of missiles in a spread that sweeps across the map and down the narrow straits. I rely on the missiles finding targets themselves, and I usually end up sinking everything. I always won that level, but I also did not find out if there were friendly ships in the area. The idea was to sink everything at all costs, and if there were friendly ships, that was the cost...
I know that harpoon missiles are capable of cruising across the taiwan strait, and if launched by the hundreds, could sink the unprotected ships in the strait. if launched by the thousands, will sink everything...
the ferries bringing tanks and infantry to taiwan would be... in really bad shape. any submersible transports would be less possible, because torpedos would not need to go deep if they travel in a straight line, will find something.
@@NoobNoobNewssuch strike, would be discovered far in advance. By satellite weeks prior, and early warning radar. Giving Taiwan time to use their bunker system and disperse their fleet. And very unlikely that China has the training needed to execute such levels of strikes. Just look at russia, their peak was about 130 missiles a day. And what did their missiles achieve on the first days of the war..
Things could change dramatically if Japan decided to help. China has to calculate any assistance from Australia, New Zealand, Japan, India(?), the USA, etc. It seems very risky and costly to invade Taiwan. Plus all the sanctions . There is a lot going on over there.
For us in the west there is also too much too lose. Inflation will go trough the roof.
Japan & USA would get involved as it is critical to their strategic planning. If China does supply Russia with lethal aid, and the USA does sanction China, China has "less to lose" by attempting an Invasion. I expect Phillippines/vietnam might take the opportunity to attack South China Sea military installations, but I wouldn't bet on that. Possibly India would get involved, targeting Chinese oil transport or pushing on their border disputes, but I wouldn't bet on that either.
My concern is they will learn from Russia. They could absolutely pull it off, but it would have to be just a huge coordinated mass moving fast 24/7 and really having less than a week to mostly secure the island, because even if all those allies wanted to assist it would just be too late
This would require incredible amounts of coordination, with built in plans for flexibility. It’s not beyond the reach of the PLA, or any military really, as long as there is proper political drive behind it, but flexibility don’t usually go along with dictatorships, communism, or militaries mostly equipped with Soviet-era or influenced equipment. They would have to go all out with their newest shit, backed up by their newest Soviet stuff
No help LoL
Sanctions don't work though. Especially with China who produces so much stuff. It will basically mean more rising prices in the West.
Sorry for asking, but i am not sure you mentioned the dragons in the video? Chinese dragons can carry up top 20 troops each. The larger maybe even as many as 50. So the 17 ancient Chinese dragons can carry as many as 340-370 wobbling sabers equipped soldiers onto Taiwan. Jumping tree tops towards strategic goals
The kung fu masters they send can just fly there on their own like Li Mu Bai
You're forgetting the thaumaturgy experts, as well as the evil spirits sealed inside the Tomb of Qin Shi Huangdi. SMH, you folks forgetting about preternatural weaponry.
You don't want this to turn into a war waged with despoiler warheads. The PRCA have still not contained the Tokyo Anomaly, 70 years after the end of World War 2.
Not to mention the loss of New Zealand, the rogue states of Kemet, Paraguay, Haiti, and the East European / Middle African / Indian / Hawaiian Containment Zones.
Have you taken your meds this week?
It’s not the dragons you need to worry about - it’s the monkey king!
ASSUMING: The transport ship / boat convoys are no being bombed, rocketed, mined, and artillery shelled....I don't see them just cruising in like armed tourists.
Yeh… that’s why they will blow up there whole navy like Russia
well china would launch thousad of cruised missle and drone before the naval invasion was started. Or even blockade the entire island for month or even years.
You don't plan such a landing operation without having complete control of the waters. At least, not if you want to have a chance of succeeding.
@@simon-pierrelussier2775 The American forces don't need to go to Taiwan strait. They can attack from afar by air-to-surface missiles. Give the same anti-access and area denial to any Chinese ships that try to cross.
@@ichimonjiguy In other words, if Americans have fire control over the Taiwan strait, then the Chinese forces don't have complete control over the Taiwan strait.
Taiwan also has several sea mining vessels, which could make it extremely difficult for the PLAN to get ships to the landing sites
Then none military aids can be sent via the shipping lanes to Taiwan too. That’s exactly what Mainland wants. Taiwan is only 100miles off Mainland coast which means PLA could reach every corner of Taiwan isle using long range rockets, saving expensive ballistic missiles for the US carriers.
@@davenobody407 guided rockets are too expensive，unguided rockets are too inaccurate，both has too little payload for reinforced targets(most you'll need to use ballistic missiles some may even required aerial bombs that can penetrate into underground bunkers)
and we can still open a narrow lane for civilian boat，but deadly for pla ship to go through since we can just attack them in a narrow sea lane.
Maybe they can blockade Taiwan together with the Mainland's mining vessels from the foreign imports the islands desperately need.
@@rebel_lion762 During a war nothing is expensive for a country with 1.4bn population, millions are willing to work for free. Everything will be just a number.
And what do you mean by keeping a narrow ship lane for civilians ships - how do civilian boats know where the mines are and aren’t? Any civilian boats dare to enter a war zone and refuse to stop - guess what - will be fired upon. Unless you’re talking about single sail pleasure craft - still nuts to enter a sea lane full with mines and attack drones.
@@davenobody407 you can’t rely on patriotism to fuel the war machine. Especially one war let will have no benefit to civilians. It’s not even a defensive war.
And how do civilian ship know where the mine was laid? We simply tell everyone on this planet. It’s not like enemy can use them.attacking civilian ship has been done in ww1 by germany guess how it turned out?
Nice video, informative
Excellent overview. Thanks for educating me on this topic.
It wouldn't shock me if Taiwan is covertly increasing their anti-ship and anti-air defenses.
If I'm Taiwan, I put all of my eggs into those two baskets. Taiwan's best hope is to keep them from getting a sizable Chinese force from landing. Once China gets a foothold, it's over.
Not possible. Any actual numbers of arsenal you see would be way overblown since the Taiwanese strategy would be to deter instead of conceal.
I like to believe that western intelligence agencies have already been grooming a small army of chinese turncoats that would sabotage a substantial chunk of the mobilizing fleet before they even take to the sea. i have no evidence to support that idea, but it gives me the warm fuzzies inside so i choose to believe it lol
It's not covert. Porcupine strategy.
I don’t believe Taiwan is “covertly” procuring Anti-Ship and Anti-Air missiles when they should be doing the opposite since their doctrine revolves around deterrence.
I wonder why China could only use 1/4 of its amphibious force, optimistically. In USN peacetime operations, 1/3 of a fleet is deployed, 1/3 is coming/going from deployment, and 1/3 is being repaired/refitted. But for a planned invasion, there should be a "surge" capacity.
I don't question that not all ships would be available, I just question the fraction that would be available. I think it would be more than 1/4, but I'm willing to be corrected.
I assume it is less a fact that they could only use a quarter of their ships from a maintenance/readiness standpoint, and more that there will be heavy mining of the sea, plus limited target areas making for limited usefull approach corridors to taiwan. If you put to many ships in there at once that makes it significantly easier to sink individual ships, drastically upping losses. And in areas of the strait with 35-25m water depth sunken ships will then become navigation hazards themselves, compounding the proböem even further.
Basically the same reason why you need to spread out ground troops on an open fielx, otherwise artillery would just masacre them.
@@reappermen What you say is very possible. But the video did not specify on how they arrived at the 1/4 figure. It would have be informative had they described how they arrived at that figure.
As unrest rises back at home from the collapse of free trade, the rest of the PLA would increasingly have to stay behind just to maintain order. China would quickly go broke paying for much more expensive overland shipments, and it's going to reflect in food prices and power outages.
This video is horrible intel. It fails to mention that china has converted most of its commercial and civilian ships and boats for Military use over the last 10 years. Add something like an extra 160,000 ships to the mix and we might be talking.
@@doujinflipthe limit is assault ships, not personel
Great video Cabal, I have always appreciated your channel's content.
You failed to mention that china has used in practice drills that it would use RIRO car carriers as landing ships. They arent armoured and dont have the ability to resupply, but getting them onto the beach they can do
10:40
Those 100 miles are extremely choppy. Those car carriers are going to have a tough time landing without getting taken down.
Yeah, if you disregard the hail of missiles and artillery fire. Also not sure how seaworthy those car carriers are. This isn’t the English Channel they’d be trying to cross.
You want to know why Germany failed to prevent the D-day landings? Because their focus was on sinking the big ships! So they installed more than enough heavy guns, and less machine gun bunkers. Beach obsticals, land mines, and machine gun bunkers caused severe damage to the infantry on those beaches! The main key to stopping an amphibious invasion is stopping the infantry DEAD COLD in the beginning! Because ABSOLUTELY NOTHING can be done until the infantry secures the beaches! China can send tanks, helicopters, planes, bombers all they want! But, none of that can be effective until Chinese infantry secures the beaches! That's Taiwan's main focus. Stopping the infantry dead cold in it's tracks. The straight would turn red with PLA blood before a single PLA soldier gets further inland.
Is there a regular RIRO car ferry across that sea right now? If not, why not, and there's your answer fishbulb
It's definitely a rate of flow issue. I don't think a Brigade every 24 or even 12 hours would do it.
Many senior officers of the Taiwan military are corrupt and have leaked intelligence information
If they get a foothold, they can drop additional supplies and troops and just snowball from there. The trick is to deny them that foothold, or immediately counter it before they can expand upon it
Of course not, an invasion for China would be suicide. All of us realist military enthusiast got laughed at when we said the Russian military was a joke for years. Well, we think the same about the Chinese.
Get your troop capacity and make the best calculations you can in the worst case scenario then cut everything by 3/4 is the usual amount of success in any military operation..
Maybe they will also conduct a special military operation but at the bottom of the sea.
Like nord stream?
@@obiwan5781 oh yeah that was the U.S.
@@Kevin-mk6jo It wasn't though Sweden never said we did it where did you get that from?
No need. One day Taiwan will fall. One year all Americans bases will fall in Asia.
@@keking2178 One day you'll be shitting gold
Interesting idea would be a ton of underwater delivery vehicles landing at night, they could get you into many places other ships couldn't reach. Use those units to seize critical areas your other forces need to land
NVGs and Thermals would like to have a word...
You made the best suggestion, under water supply would do the magic
So there is this thing called sonar...
excellent show! thanks
Have you guys released the Binkov interview yet?
There are two issues, attack and Hold. Atacking is a military action. In most cases, attacking is easy. Holding is a political issue. How much force needs to be applied, what you can do with those forces, how other countries react, etc.
It is not necessary to invade Taiwan, just give an ultimatum against the separatists and let the population decide if they want to face the consequences of a great siege on the island. From mainland China you can destroy airports, airstrips, seaports, etc. Drones and mines can also be used to deny access. This puts pressure on both the civilian and military sectors of the island as they see their reserves dwindle every day.
@@denonba I think the whole 1 country 2 systems thing has been proved to be lie in hk. Still who knows?
@@doge3169 That was never the intent? When the UK stopped occupying HK they were to slowly reintegrate into mainland China which is what is currently happening.
@@denonba This. HQ9B's mean the mainland can deny all of Taiwan's airspace without even having a single fighter in the air or ship in the sea. And their missile corps could decimate the overwhelming majority of Taiwan's military without ever leaving home. Since Taiwan is densely packed city centers the civilian causality rate would be unlike anything we've ever seen. With all that on the table, there's absolutely no benefit to Taiwan to have an armed conflict with the mainland. They have nothing to gain and everything to lose. To be honest I severely doubt that it ever will turn into an armed conflict for this reason.
@@92HazelMocha "And their missile corps could decimate the overwhelming majority of Taiwan's military without ever leaving home."
If they dare. The CCP doesn't give a shit about civilian casualty, but they do care about Taiwan's infrastructure. TSMC makes a quarter of the world's chips and are the sole manufacturers of the most advanced semiconductor in the world. If one stray missile hits a chip fab, the entire world's economy will go up in smoke. And there are plans that IF the CCP dares to launch an invasion, the Taiwanese would simply rig TSMC fabs to blow. The result would be an economic depression that some have foretold to be WORST than the Great Depression in 1929.
Same thing goes for an embargo. They can starve Taiwan for all the want. But best believe that when the flow of semiconductor stops because chip-making raw materials and supplies can't get to Taiwan, the US, EU, Australia, and every country that relies on a computer to run WILL get involved. Even those that have no stakes will have to get into the game, because Taiwanese chips are used every where, from iPhones to computers to MRI machines.
Taiwanese semiconductor is a powerful deterrent. It's their version of a nuke. I'm surprised that Covert Cabal hasn't mentioned this in this video.
Dont forget the fishing fleet can haul alot
China could just manufacture 10,000 bulletproof landing craft. 20 soldiers per craft
@@shanerooney7288 what about taking a round from a tank?
Add the weather in the strait, gives only 14 days of before ships crossing the strait will be at risk due to the currents
We will see a "Sea of Fire" believe me if they attempt to do that.
Just the fact the modern taiwan is walled with coastal urban sprawl which of all the current modern trends has proven the most consistent as the best defensable terrain. Even if Taiwan was vastly inferior to China as compared to ukraine vs Russia (fun fact it a lost less inferior then ukraine is to russia) Taiwan could easily bleed out countless hordes of pla fighting a attrittional delaying action through vast dense cities and up into some of the highest terrtain in the south china sea which ROC has honeycombed with bunkers tunnels and even under ground air bases.
China came in 3rd in the Edelweissraid 2023 for mountain troops, way better than both US teams. Seems they are pretty skilled as light infantry
Assuming their moral stays high it would bleed the chinese of a entire generation
@@maoh1772 Chinese marines on a Joint Mission with The UN left 6 UN workers to be kidnapped and raped , because they ran away from a rebel attack in Africa. Not sure if that's what you call skill my brotha
@@maoh1772 Russia is the second largest Army in the world too. And look how they did in Ukraine against the 13th largest.
These competitions and polls don't mean shit in the face of real warfare. Drills, trainings, and exercises are completely different from live fire.
And why would Taiwanese fight street to street and see their cities turned into Aleppo or Mariupol? Where do you think they'd house their women, kids, elderly while the fighting are leveling cities block by block? Taiwan is a mountainous island, there is no "let me walk across the border to Jordan/Poland"; anyone dumb enough to try to defend in an urban setting must be willing to have his family die with him in the same building.
The US is willing to fight to the last Taiwanese. We Taiwanese aren't so dumb.
Amphibious landings are very hard to do. There's not been any even attempted for like 70 years now..
I can only think of the Invasion of Grenada in 83.
Falkland Islands? Or was that commando type thing.
10g's an hour via each airport, probably the main first way.
When they say link in the description but the link isn't in the description.
Really interesting video. I noticed drone capability from both sides weren’t mentioned. Good analysis though.
Drones and Satellites. China also has 180+ military-oriented satellites. They can see Western forces just as the West can see their forces.
And what is the range of Chinese drones!
The PLA has dozens of different types of drones with different capabilities and features
@@malahammer The Chinesee wingloong-3 attack drone range > 10,000 km.
@@malahammer copy
They would have to max out an airborne and naval invasion prepped by a opening bombardment. That would only get them so far. They would have to be US naval and air power which is the strongest in the world. They are close to home which gives the Chinese forces a massive advantage making supply chains shorter. However I think the two best examples of how gruesome island invasions is are the battles of crete and the battle of iwo jima. They showed how many loses you will take for a small piece of land. They might win but will be severely weakened if they did.
How tf do you think US (or taiwanese for that matter) naval and air power will have any impact at all ? Any airfield on the Island are directly in range of Chinese missiles that would be fired FROM the mainland. So would any US carrier coming close enough for its planes to reach taiwanese airspace, which is also covered by Chinese air/missile defense FROM the mainland. Ultimately, any serious attempt at « winning » this on the part of the US will have to involve striking Chinese territory directly.
@@nihluxler1890 美国人为什么要打击中国的领土？他可最擅长代理人战争了，从来不做赔钱买卖。
@@nihluxler1890 Taiwan will begin striking China as soon as boats start getting loaded up, or missiles start flying. The economic sanctions and boycotts will hit China before any Chinese troops reach Taiwan by boat, and the CCP will need to bring all those troops home to deal with the riots from starving people. US will blockade from a safe distance halfway around the world at all the choke points and no trade will reach China by sea to provide food or energy.
China cannot win. They can make other people lose, but they can't win themselves, and trying will only ensure that either an economic depression wipes out everything they've gained over the last 100 years, or the CCP falls to coup or revolution. Their strategy is to keep building up so much military capacity that they can sufficiently intimidate a peaceful surrender from Taiwan, because Taiwan is worried China's just crazy enough to risk all of the above just to rule the ashes of Taiwan. But before that happens, Taiwan and Japan will both join the nuclear weapons club.
We will see
I would load up the chinese deep-water fishing fleet with lots and lots of troops and supplies some weeks ahead and have them rush the island in order to capture key installations and then resupply with the navy and by air.
The USN says they already have ways to counter the DF-21, and being a ballistic missile they really aren't great at hitting moving targets unless the target keeps going straight. something as simple as changing speed or bearing while the missile is in flight may be enough to dodge it, despite their size US carriers can turn surprisingly quickly and can probably exceed 50kts if needed (source: multiple USN carrier vets who suggested the Nimitz class might have been capable of those speeds ;) ). ASMs aren't the easiest things to shoot down either, and a large salvo of ASMs launched from shore, ship, air, etc. would probably sink quite a few landing craft, even if escorts are able to shoot down most of the Harpoons, they would likely expend their SAM batteries on just the first wave. I watched a simulation of how a USN CVBG would defend against a multi pronged attack (ASMs, drone swarm, fast boats at the same time), the DDGs were able to shoot down all the drones and ASMs ... but basically expended their entire stock of SAMs and used up most of their gun ammo on the fast boats (the sim did show that Arleigh Burkes are absolutely deadly to fast attack boats).
What I find odd is that they can technically go to war but they also have contracts having to do with weapons such as the new b2 nuclear bomber .. russia technically can request all information in regards to the aircraft since they provide Uranium fuel for the b-2. The contract they have states they can request whatever they want yet they go to war? Doesnt make much sense other than world conflicts and politics are all a stage..
Also, we should remember that those air defense bubbles granted by Chinese destroyers, primarily, stop protecting the ships once they get close enough to the Taiwanese shore. If you have a destroyer parked 50-60 miles off the coast, once whatever landing ships it’s protecting get within 20 odd miles of the shore, any ASMs launched from Taiwan would reach the incoming ships before interceptor missiles fired from the destroyers could reach the landing ships position, meaning after a certain point any landing ships are going to be completely exposed to ASM/Artillery fire.
@@rememberberries4277 I'm not aware of any nuclear-fueled aircraft in the world.
DF-21 is almost 2 decades old now, these days it's more the Mach 20 hypersonic orbital strike that can sink the entire US navy within an hour you have to worry about.
50kts? That's 92km/h! Is the deck going to tilt like a speed boat as well?
Their best option is an irregular approach. Something like what you see at the start of World in Conflict, using container ships to get into the harbours and like a Troyan horse launching a surprise attack in the harbour securing a foothold in the island.
It will be crazy and messy but probably the best option.
You'd still need troops to muster and get on the ships, which would be detected before the plan could be executed.
@@bjorntheviking6039 you sure about that? you can pack the heavy equipment into containers deep in China, then send the personal to harbour installations around all of China. A single ship could be fitted with a large group of combatants and equipment but instead of all of them boarding the ship in one harbour they can do it along several ones. I'm sure even with modern tech this will be difficult to detect specially being China as secretive as they are.
Then this ships enter Taiwan's harbors in an orderly manner and strike them once inside, even when a whole sea battle would be fought to resupply these units at least they will be already in Taiwan.
You just made me reinstall, absolutely love that game
You and I are on the same page.
human rail gun?
The inner grunt in me is thinking all those guys running in a file on a road are dead.
They would secure ports, then not just landing craft but civilian ships
The way I think they will do is that they will use civilian ships to disguise their build up. They did the same strategy in West Philippine Sea, they call it militia ship
Satellites will spot the buildups on the mainland weeks before the invasion
You eat too much balut .... cut the crap
@@didierduplantier8359 thats not how they will do it. They will slowly increase the number of fishing vessels already in the area. They will be disguised as fisherman. Thats what they did on SCS before building those islands there.
Though that will be obvious, there is no way you can make a preemptive strike against these civilian vessels.
pound the island with long range rocket until the island's military assets eliminated.
@@space_guy_04
They will need to ferry tens of thousands of troops and their equipments, so that fishing fleet is going to be huge. Moreover, they will have to set up huge base camps on the mainland to resupply and reinforce the invasion. Try to understand the logistics of such an operation, something the Russians seem to disregard.
Good analysis: this would be an extremely tough and expensive amphibious operation with highly uncertain outcomes. One thing I would add: China's economy has enough demographic problems of its own already without losing hundreds of thousands of young people as combat casualties. The losses would cripple their economy for generations even before the effect of sanctions and loss of access to Western markets
then who is gonna make your shits? small Vietnam and Philippines, or india where electricity can't even run for 247. btw we still have hundreds of millions of young people, if that aint enough, we will devolop robotic warriors.
losing hundreds of thousands young people will cripple our economy for generationS?? haha, white people dont know what tf they are talking about....
Are you sure? Population of China aged 16-50 According to 2022 statistics, there are nearly 700 million people......
To give you another figure, the number of China's reserve forces is more than 10 million....
Yeah, China is toast in the long run. If the Demographics doesn't end then Communism will.
People don't think outside the box often enough.
Really appreciate your analysis!
I think you left something out:
IMO, the invasion will have three stages:
1. Chinese "tourist" already on the island before the invasion will be equipped with hidden caches of weapons and will at 0 time try and secure aerial landing zones, deny mobility and capture vital crosspoints. These will likely be < 10,000. Light civilian vehicles and weapons.
2. Airborne troops arrive in mass to presecured landing zones. These troops will try and secure amphibious landing zones.
you missed 1 thing: long range (500km) rocket to eliminate the Island's military assets.
Hmmm nice
@@chrislambert5571 so what? you should check the size of mainland, the island, and the distance between them, before make any statement. and use some logic, too.
I was wondering - how effective are standard countermeasures like chaff, flares and jammers against anti-ship missiles? Because you could fill converted cargo ship (or 10 or 50, they are cheap and plentiful) to the brim just with that kind of ammo and keep firing the whole way, essentially moving under the protective cloud. It's not THAT far and the stocks of antiship missiles Taiwain has are not unlimited.
Taiwan has a huge collections of artilleries. Some are dated back to ww2 era but would still be effective if concentrated on a small area like a beachhead
@@didierduplantier8359 can we account large amount of intel by the chinese?
Thosands or tens of thousand of small cameras, 30.000 high precision shells.
Virtually all the bunkers bombed DURING the operations?
Many things will go wrong? Sure. but the ccp needs this war.
@@didierduplantier8359 Yeah, but shore bombardment is a thing and whoever rules the coastal areas can neutralize a lot of artillery from outside its range. Taiwan is not Iwo Jima and 2023+ is not WW2 where hiding in the cave worked against naval bombardment.
Electronic warfare is what you’re looking for, its impractical to fire countermeasures the whole way there.
Even with countermeasures it’s very easy to become overwhelmed with modern anti-ship missiles, though for a combat vessel like a destroyer it takes a lot of them.
Ideally a ship will deploy decoys(chaff+flare), use their EW systems, use their CIWS as well as anti-missile missiles. Just like with aircraft decoys aren’t actually all that effective in evading modern missiles, it’s even more so in a ship which is much slower to take evasive action to avoid a high speed missile.
rocket & artillery can reach the island to secure the whole island before even sending ship and personnel. also check the map to compare the size and distance of both parties.
If I remember correctly, the DF-21 flies at like Mach 9 or something like that, and I think I remember that anything beyond Mach 5 generates a plasma barrier around it and cuts out radar communications. Much like the incoming Apollo capsules that had 3 minutes of radio silence upon entering the atmosphere surrounded by the hot plasma. Aircraft carriers are mobile and a missile that has a target fixed upon launch and then loses satellite guidance while flying isn't that great given that it will need an immediate update when the plasma barrier is no longer there. Now consider that even huge US aircraft carriers can move at 30+mph. Your target will be miles away. Very high chance of missing. Plus US carriers have a number of defense measures. I remember that one is a particular device that is Australian and projects a carrier-sized radar cross-section to throw off missile targeting. Consider also that SM3 and/or SM-6 are being adapted.
China is also developing hypersonic missiles for anti ship role and attacking targets on land
Don't forget that the hypersonic missiles become supersonic or subsonic during terminal phase as they descend into the lower atmosphere. Yes there's less reaction time, but with early warning aircraft giving you updates, it will essentially be like taking out any other missile.
yes jmr you are correct. There is the plasma barrier plus also stagnation point. All hypersonic missiles are just a means to get funding from taxpayers. They are not practical weapons. SDI is still waiting for a breakthrough in physics 40 years after it was rolled out. Ballistic missile attack on *moving* US navy warships is not taken seriously by the US for many reasons. The only thing multiple wargames have shown is the real threat from the J-20 fighter. The USN is speeding up development of the MQ-25 for this reason.
Well, hopefully the Chinese haven't thought of any of that.
It really depands on the thickness of the plasma barrier. The faster the object, the thicker the barrier gets. If its in mach 9 the plasma barrier is not really that thick, using VHF or even UHF band equipment could easily penetrate plasma barrier and guide the missile, it has to reach mach 20 or so to actually being cut off communication with the outside completely and Apollo capsules travel at mach 30+
one thing that does not seem to be mentioned much is seamines. a large number of these in the straits and outside taiwan west coast ports would really slow down any attack and resupply activity by the chinese.
I don't think China could pull it off. The US would be chillin not far away lobbing cruise missles. China would lose a ton just in the first attempt
@Kswis The CCP should be jailed.
Keep up the good work
I’ve been curious as the why Taiwan hasn’t invested in coastal and motor torpedo boats kinda like Iran. My understanding is there’re pretty cheap and easy to make, so seems to be at least some help in case of landings/invasion. Or am I missing something?
Taiwan dont need to. because no war with china even in future
The entire strait is in missile range from Taiwan so putting them on boats doesn't add much that way. Taiwan also doesn't have a lot of fjords or islands to use as cover. Most importantly though, Iran wants to be able to harass routine traffic, especially civilian tankers, in the Persian Gulf while Taiwan has no equivalent objective.
I dont think they will attack them in shorelines or in the sea... they will let them land... cut them off... and massacre PLA turn them into pieces in their own land...
@@xinzhong01 Yep, offering a hamburger to the PLA soldiers might be enough for them to agree to surrender.
Even regular artilleries can wipe out an entire landing fleet.
It'd be clever if defensive trenches near the beach could be flooded, turning them into moats that the Chinese would be unable to take cover in.
I there's only a small window of like two weeks a year that an amphibious landing can even happen. But that might be an old idea.
I think the small island fortress right next to the Chinese mainland can provide artillery shelling to some of the ports China may use and may be a good place for Surface to Surface missiles since it could essentially hit more ports and military targets even farther than what missiles from Taiwan could.
Speculation, but how it plays out in reality you really cannot imagine.
@@jackl593 yes, military strategy is something that can’t be 100% predicted, look at Ukraine as an example or 2003.
😏Why the United States has not attacked China for so long, I am very anxious
@@user-qp4eq1oj5r no one wants a war but with China’s aggression and continued violations, I doubt militarily China can challenge the US especially if other allies come to help.
@@jiaweichew3370 If the United States needs help from its allies, it proves that the United States is no longer qualified to lead us
I hate to be the one to tell you but THE LANDING ON OKINAWA made the D Day invasion look like a dress rehearsal. Why does no one seem to know that!
because no one wants to talk about them dropping 2 nukes on civilians for the fun of it
@@flowersthewizard9336for the fun of it?? Picked up a history book recently? Or hell when was the last time you turned on your brain to think critically about something?
Okaniwa was renowned for violence amongst any man who lived it . The old timers made sure us kids knew the price ,unlike the blue,green pink,haired little shits who could give a flying tonka toy about why they are still free to talk shit about the country they're most privileged to be a citizen of .
Find the oreos
@@shawntailor5485 nah I'd rather live in Iceland or Denmark
A fixed underwater torpedo launcher that fires 400mm torpedoes and is either autonomous or remotely controlled might be worthwhile. Quietly waiting for a target that can't tell it's even there. Powered by cables to shore with battery backups.
Great video and assessment!
With satellites, they would know the Chinese were coming for months. The preparations would be monumental and the west is sure to put up defenses as well, along with draw battle plans to deal with the invasion. The ports launching Chinese troops and supplies would be hit within the first few hours, knocking out many of their logistical hubs. Thing about amphibious invasion, eventually you need to bunch up your logistics to load onto ships. Tomahawks would be pouring down and oversaturating air defense nodes covering these sites.
那就等着本土被攻击吧
@@shl-nh7fe 我就等著看海峽底部死去的中國士兵
havent you seen the military equipment taiwan prepaed when pelossi arrived in taiwan? 50 year old tanks, trucks and artillery. taiwan is not prepared at all. you just gotta cut it off (easy because it is an island) and bombard it from the distance until they surrender. sort of what the wagner does in ukraine. they bomb the shit out of a city till its almost destroyed and soldiers weakened, leave a little room for troops to escape and bomb that with artillery and after all that send in the assault brigades to clean up the cityh
@@VictoryAHK 你想太多了。 中国有无人机，导弹。 真的搞起来。台湾可以马上断水断电断气。 高超音速导弹，现阶段没有任何国家能拦得住，了解一下。
@@VictoryAHK 是的，我不否认台海会有战死的解放军士兵。但是你们的北美洲本土绝对会被攻击，不会让盎格鲁撒克逊的军工复合体与犹太资本发战争财。你们打了太多的治安战，全是与弱国小国的战争，忘记了与同量级对手战争的残酷性。
Yeah, the main issue for China (other than Taiwan's allies), isn't the size of their military, but the logistics of getting enough of it there and supplying it with enough stuff. That issue, combined with the problem that most Taiwanese really, really hate the CCP, that makes any invasion near impossible.
Pro-"China" (which the ROC on Taiwan officially claims to be), but not pro-CPC with their incredibly toxic habits. The massive gap in sentiments over unification would close dramatically if the Mainland democratized like the island did.
If you speak to the Mainlanders, you'd be surprised how often they're open to if not already preferring a life under a government that's more like the one in Taipei and less like the one in Beijing.
@@KeyboardWarrior You say "many" are pro-China. I'd agree. I said "most" hate the CCP. That's still true.
And yes, culturally, they're both Chinese so of course there's affiliation!
So, your comment shows a real lack of understanding of the basic facts of the English language and simple logic.
you missed that 10% of Taiwans 20 million kind a want to join China.
thats not the majority but thats a lot.
see next year election, the results will show if taiwanese majority are pro US or not. creating opinion only based on partial information (or maybe just other people's opinions) will be misleading.
@@leihtory7423 I mean, I don't disagree with you, but that's not really enough to matter. If the majority hate the CCP, that means you will have a real war if you actually hit the shore.
All that urban warfare....that tells me there will be ALOT of civilian casualties
A speaker I saw mentioned that the weather and current patterns in the straight means there's only a couple times a year when conditions would be appropriate to attack. So once China starts a buildup, it has to hit a pretty narrow window during which the US, Japan, South Korea, and the Phillipines would already be gearing up. Evidently Chinese defense documents have said that if they attack, they figure they have a three week window before the US can bring enough resources to bear. The Chinese must have secured the island and begun fortifying it for itself before then. Given the weather and advance notice from build-up times, it just doesn't seem like the math works.
China still have fleet of fishing boats manned by militias that can act logistic support for the invasion.
They can also use them to soak up sea mines and missiles before sending in combat vessels.
They have no anti-air defenses though. If the PLAAF doesn't dominate the skies over the entire Strait, that's a lot of soldiers lost and shipwreck hazards created by even cheap guided gravity bombs.
Another excellent analysis! Thanks for sharing!
9:50 What's up with the giant red-white-blue Dutch flag on the ship?
yes
Yet another video which neglects to mention an enormous advantage forTaiwan; the sea currents. For 10 months of the year the waters of the strait are very turbulent and an invasion fleet is going to find it impossible to stay in formation. China can only attackin May and September when the waters settle down.
Then they have only a month to conquer Taiwan before the army is cut off again. As long as Taiwan can mount a half decent defence, they should be able to hold off the Chinese until the seas come to their aid again. And that's before the Americans and Japanese arrive. Which they will, Taiwan is too important to let fall. And of course, there's the issue of the (in)famous chip factories ...
The chip fabs would be permanently disabled and its surviving engineers evacuated as PLA forces draw close. Remember these are machines with components that must remain in sometimes subatomic tolerances, even simple neglect could bring a fab expensively out of spec without prompt attention by someone who already understands the issues and specific quirks. The fabs TSMC are developing abroad are partly a hedge as a place to put everyone they rescued and maintain that irreplaceable brainpower.
Why can China only land 3 brigades in 48 hours when the Ally’s with 40s tech landed 100k troops in Normandy in one day?
4 big reasons:
1) Thanks to surveilance from satelites etc. Taiwan and its alliey will know whats comming allowing for all of the following.
2) The strait will be heavily mined, much more than the british channel.
3) the Taiwanese have a truckload of mobile and fixed artillery and missiles ready to shoot at incoming ships. Precision artiööery and missiles were not a thing in ww2.
4) unlike germany at the Time, Taiwan and its allies have a significantly powerfull navy that you have to fight.
5) similar to 4, they also got a significant air force.
Navies used to be much, much larger back in the day. Ships are much more complicated and expensive to build today. The US navy currently has 290 deployable vessels, for comparison during the 3.5 years of WW2, america built 1,200 combatant ships. D-Day is basically a fluke of history that wasn’t ever logistically possible before and probably never will be again.
The fact is that China can mobilize way more than 1940s America but they're too scared to admit that.
@@tritium1998 China has a similar problem as the west when it comes to mobilizing it’s youth. These kids probably wont go. It’s the modern era and nobody wants to fight an industrial size war.
Because the UA-camr is not doing analysis, he made conclusion first and try to find information or narratives to support his argument. China can land more troops than D-day, why? Because China will use civilian vessels to transport the military as long as China took a landing spot. People are underestimating China but forgot how China can always get tings done quick and in a large scale.
Agree
The man power they have is insane and well not to mention there very fast military build up
Important to recognize that for d-day the US achieved surprise had quite a bit of practical large scale amphibious experience from the pacific total naval superiority and a vastly superior Air Force none of which china has or could realistically get before an invasion and dday was against an enemy forced to defend the entire French and Western European coastline whose best troops were fighting 2,000 miles away in Russia and it still could have failed. I’m not saying china couldn’t do it but establishing a beachhead would be an absolute bloodbath and then they get to slog it out in urban warfare where if they win the enemy can retreat into mountain hilly terrain and continue fighting a guerrilla war. Not to mention the sanctions and condemnations of the west. The only way for this to be an actual “victory” is if Taiwan just decides not to fight at all or they take it politically without any shots fired a prolonged military conflict is devastating for all sides especially china.
Right, there's a reason even the US at the height of its military momentum decided to "island hop" past Taiwan altogether on the way to Japan. The last successful invasion of the island happened when machine guns were still rolled around on horse-drawn carts.
Not these D-day invasions scenarios of Taiwan. The Chinese would never risk a bloody invasion of Taiwan. Blockade or bombardment of the island is more likely.
We’ve always called China’s ridiculous “Taiwan” invasion scenario - “The Million Man Swim”.
I like the english phrase "iffy". Even IF they could cross the straight super smooth. Even IF they could occupy and established the 3-5 beachheads and landing zones, which are realistic.
They still would need to funnel all the troops trough some absolute choke points. Clustermunitions and Scattermines are a low cost solution for stopping this in its tracks.
And EVEN then, you would need to occupy an heavy urban terrain with a well fortified mountainous hinterland.
I just would like to see how a realistic winning scenario would look like.
I like your arrogance. Let's wait and see.！！
@@zz-ww6fv - it’s not arrogance, it’s reality 🤣 - How far can YOU swim? And how far can you swim with equipment?? 😂🤣
And then of course we have the fun fact that the Chinese haven’t conducted a successful naval/amphibious battle in centuries 👍🏻🤣
They haven’t even fought a real land battle in decades.
@@zz-ww6fv Been waiting for 70+ years!
@@zz-ww6fv come on coward, lets see if you make it to the beach. You guys are all talk no walk (or swim xD)
How many do y'all want to see?
China: YES! ALL OF IT!
Any link for the CSIS write up on the ability of china to limit the cooperation of the US's east asian allies?
Why did he say using 1/4 of their amphibious ships would be optimistic?
Logistics and the crowding of the AO is what I would assume he meant.
No navy has 100% fleet readiness. It's typically intended to have 1/3 ready, 1/3 workup/light maintenance, 1/3 deep maintenance. Though this tends to be optimistic at best, and China aren't known for reliable large scale manufacturing. I don't know if those ships have had any specific issues however, which could further impact this.
@@Scythl if he said 30-40% it would have made sense but he said 25% would be optimistic?
@@Scythl china isn't known for reliable large scale manufacturing? Maybe 40 years ago. Now it's what they are famous for.
@@ryanvalicek7291 Probably factoring in corruption, which make sense.
Absolutely not. It is projected that the CCP has already commandeered all the transports they can and are still short of the bear minimum of troop and vehicle transport. The Pentagon did a white paper which projects that the CCP would not even meet the bare minimum transport needs until 2027-30.
2030 is when they promised it would be theirs
with modern tech i think it will be hard to get boots on the ground i reckon there will be a lot of ships lost with all this new defense tech
Ya it was easy for Russia to invade Ukraine cuz it’s literally right next door while Taiwan is surrounded with water
Have you seen the Chinese interceptors?
They would need at least an 8:1 offensive advantage and 10,000 sea worthy amphibious vessels. It would make the Normandy landings look like a kindergarten excursion. Not going to happen
You forget the fishing fleet that china has, plus civilian ferries…
those would probably be super easy to sink with a tank or ifv
Taiwan will not provide ports for those fishing fleets and ferries to unload.
@@Cryosxify well if china takes the beaches they could be used as second echelon resupply or ferry stuff to closer islands in the strait prior to military ships completing the final leg.
Making firearms more available to Taiwanese citizens would strengthen the Defense.
Only if we follow the Swiss model.
next time you know, american style shooting happened in the island.
@@breadnewbie6326 better than being conquered by the CCP.
No way. There is still a significant amount of pro-China population in Taiwan which is about 10% not a lot but heavily concentrated on army retirees including many high ranking generals. Distributing weapons among all citizens in Taiwan is basically arming 5th columns.
@@captainalex157 will still be conquered anyway
You are referring to the ballistic missiles fueled with water right?
Nope
@@sH-ed5yf Then you are a CCP shill!
Scary times. Lot of internet commandos here too. This ain't call of duty guys.
In addition to anti-ship missiles, SAMs, land and sea mines…you left out the coastal defense artillery in hardened Taiwanese positions including on islands…some of which are actually within firing range of Chinese mainland/coastal cities and harbors.
Only kriegers would like to land on a hostile Taiwan..
do you mean taiwanese defense on kinmen island? most of the defense are already decomissioned and those artillery are already become a tourist attaction. And defending those island isn't worth it because it's almost impossible to supply the defender
@@user-gc1hg9sp9k The Penghu Islands are a bigger problem for China. But Kinmen and Matsu do still pose a danger to China. They don’t need to be resupplied during a conflict…they only need hit Chinese ships and airfields and/or high value coastal targets at the opening. Amphibious operations aren’t “campaigns”…you have to succeed at the outset…or nothing else is possible.
Amphibious warfare is the toughest warfare of all to conduct.
Lmao, you know those island being within firing range of Chinese mainland apply both ways right? 🤣 If those artillery fires a single shell on China's coast, you can expect 10 shells in return.
@@minhhuytruong8667 - except the island positions are in hardened bunkers and the Chinese positions are not 🤣
And the targets for the Taiwanese guns are easy to destroy.
Better luck next time, fool.
And in case nobody ever told you…you can’t sink an island…but ships sink.
5:08 Taiwan might look into getting some German submarines.
Not only are they the most silent ones today, the small German submarines are fully certified to safely dive in just 17m deep water.
Type 212CD specifically would be good. Unfortunately there is zero chance of Germany selling them to Taiwan. Taiwan has been looking to buy new submarines for many years but no country has dared to supply them because they fear angering the CCP and losing trade and investment access to the PRC. Germany has been even more reluctant than most others to help.
Only the USA has been a fairly reliable supplier and they don’t produce any diesel electric submarines any more. Hopefully some country will step up with an offer for some decent subs.
@@stupidburp As per UK based media outlet: Guardian and Daily Telegraph; Putin is likely to be ousted in next few months as Ukraine is winning the war with state of the art Western weapons; so a newly appointed Western backed leader of Russia (Alexei Navalny or equivalent) could supply Taiwan with Russian Diesel submarine with Western sensors and newer acoustic techs suited to Taiwan. Also, they might donate dozens of S-300 and sell cheaper S-400 and S-500 to Taiwan.
We tried, China got in the way. That's why we are trying to build our own subs.
@@sodadrinker89 but there will always be Technology gap
YOU BET !
Time to make a new dreadnought class battle cruiser for pounding car sized shells while moving, absolutely covered in metal plates and cwis anti air systems
You're talking about China ?
If the problem is landing, then why do it before you own the air and the sea?
Level them with missiles and bombs
Probably because China knows that they won't be able to own the air and sea. Planes/Helos need to refuel. They would have to fly back to mainland China to refuel and rearm. That's not even accounting for Taiwans anti-aircraft capabilities. China won't be able own the air until they have a successful beach-head.
I expect that that, between the US submarine force and the air-launched anti-ship missile inventory, most of the deployed Chinese navy would be sunk.
not enough submarines in that area of the world to sink most of China's navy. China added more tonnage to its naval fleet in 2018 than the British Navy has in total. and they have been doing it on a similar scale since then
@@NathansWargames yeah china has slowly been building for this for decades
@@NathansWargames it is also why he said anti ship missile with submarine both ( not just one) will be used
@@NathansWargames deployed navy around Taiwan, its possible.
Anything out of range of Taiwan doesn't really matter.
Why you think America would attack Chinese Navy, that's absurd to even think. They might supply weapon to Taiwan but Taiwan have to fight it's war alone. Nobody will help it.
China has "laws" that allow military to requisition civilian ships for military purposes. They will use them to ferry troops to Taiwan.
Also they will 100% start off with a salvo of ballistic missiles to soften up air and other defenses, as they practiced during drills.
every country has such laws...
Do the Chicoms use Flamethrowers still 3:11
You guys cry when you getting a good beating from a Chinese guy. I know from experience when you stupidly attacked someone 2 years older than yourself.
@@Dept246 wtf are you talking about, I was just wondering if they use flamethrowers still.
Live, Laugh, LRASM
Sink, sank, sunk, Fujian, Type 055
@@jul1anuhd sounds like British carrier😂😂
@@didyoumissedmegobareatersk2204 Like the Moskva?
You forgot the PLA’s use of civilian ships for amphibious attack.
And their ancient dragons
They'll be floating coffins. The strait will be heavily mined
Yes, shit that will be sunk by a 30mm shell.
No, he didnt. He specifically mentioned the possible use of chinese civilian ships and even showed a tank rolling into one.
3:11 is that a flametrower? i thought those were illegal.
They’re illegal in “war”, since China does not consider Taiwan a sovereign state they can’t be at “war” with them.
This has been a huuuge flaw with the Geneva conventions for a long time.
@@jerrell1169 The CCP is out here playing 4d chess
The problem is not the manpower but the SUPPLY China does not have the shipping for major logistics especially in a war zone seizing an airstrip will not suffice a major invasion NEED PORTS and they still might fail so......
They have more than enough more troops to take Taiwan but they lack the airborne and sealift capabilities to transport a large amount of them
You know Taiwan isn't hundreds of miles away
LoL.
I got news for you, China ALREADY has 2,000,000 fighters soldiers there.
@@barbosaguzman6101distance is irrelevant when talking about bodies of water. The English Channel is only 20 miles wide yet it stopped Germany from invading the UK during WW1 and 2
@@TheLiamster bud you are talking about the 1940/50 this is 2023
Wake up bud and take a chill pill or go fight for NATO if you are so concerned.
@@TheLiamster Bruh I think you are ignoring the British navy ruling the waves part?????? Are you dum dum????? The German navy would have been steamrolled if they attempted a confrontation with the British fleet????????
Imagine if Taiwan decided to invade China first.
0 support
Taiwan would cease to exist
They could take China in a day imo
MayBe the wise move
In fact they did, that's why they are in Taiwan now.
Resupply by sub is pos for food small arms but artillery/missiles not so much remote control saw bazooka load out on beaches could make landing even more hellish as a mile out ...kills tank might kill landers
They would form up in Canada, and invade from all directions Air Force wise, they could March from Canada with 100,000,000 solders.
1 million Canadian could kill 10000000 chinese soldiers
Air superiority is paramount in a Taiwan scenario for China. Get that, you can stop any Taiwanese ground force movements, and destroy any missile launchers. Even if some gets to fire a missile, they'll quickly be destroyed by drones and other air assets.
So, China's first move is not to send in the landing force, the PLA will take around 1 or 2 weeks to blockade the island, and institute a no-fly-zone, destroy and degrade Taiwan's infrastructure, isolate areas you want to land from the rest of the island, clean the areas around the landing sites using long range MLRS and air strikes.
Only then would China send in the ships, and land almost unopposed.
Far easier said than done, look no further than the clusterfuck in Ukraine where Russia has yet to attain air superiority 1 YEAR IN, China getting air superiority is nothing more than a wet sticky illusion
@@fadadioX Russia has next to no PGM production capabilities, they have no armed UAVs
China is on an entirely other level, with huge industrial capacities to produce PGMs and Drones.
It's tiresome how some people keep bundling China's military capabilities together with Russia's for no reason other than, they both are anti-US.
China's military is way more capable, way better funded and led.
You say China is incapable of achieving air superiority, base on what factors are your assessment made?
@@obsidianstatue oh I dont know... the fact that Taiwan has a far more diverse layered air defense than Ukraine and a far better and more modern air force to defend its skies? perhaps that is where my assumption came from?
@@fadadioX No Taiwan certainly does not, Ukraine air defense are using Russian and Soviet SHORADS, they are top notch, even better than NATO standards.
The US have always neglected SHORADS, similar problem exist in Taiwan, where the 107 Patriot PAC-3 missiles and 7 launchers that they bought are capable, but that's pretty much it for the island.
The next layer of air defense are the Hawks which are cold war relics, and their indigenous TK-3s are unproven with questionable production numbers.
The problem for Taiwan is that China can use SEAD drones to seek out and destroy Air defense missile radars, China can also produce more combat UAVs than Taiwan has air defense missiles.
It's a simple game of numbers, Taiwan is an isolated island that requires to import a lot of the components used for their military hardware, they cannot sustain themselves in a high intensity war.
@@obsidianstatue "No Taiwan certainly does not, Ukraine air defense are using Russian and Soviet SHORADS, they are top notch, even better than NATO standards. The US have always neglected SHORADS, similar problem exist in Taiwan, where the 107 Patriot PAC-3 missiles and 7 launchers that they bought are capable, but that's pretty much it for the island."
patently false, for a brief period the USA did neglect SHORAD before reinvesting heavily into it. Which has benefited Taiwan with its MIM - 72 Chaparral and avenger air defense systems(and soon to be NASAMS in 2024) You should have honestly said that such systems were already in Taiwan instead of being so disingenuous
"The next layer of air defense are the Hawks which are cold war relics, and their indigenous TK-3s are unproven with questionable production numbers."
yeah that whole statement can be applied to mainland China and its army of unproven rip-offs, by the way you forgot to mention the TK-2 which specializes in shooting down aircraft. as for the production numbers the TK-3 it has exceeded its production quota ahead of schedule(completed goal in 2021, anything since then is gravy)
"The problem for Taiwan is that China can use SEAD drones to seek out and destroy Air defense missile radars, China can also produce more combat UAVs than Taiwan has air defense missiles."
That's a lot of conjecture there given the layered air defense of Taiwan along with its potent air force...betting on mass UAVS reeks of wunderwaffe
"It's a simple game of numbers, Taiwan is an isolated island that requires to import a lot of the components used for their military hardware, they cannot sustain themselves in a high intensity war."
All Taiwan needs to do is hold off China until other nations come it its aid (USA, Japan, maybe even India im looking at you)Taiwan is more than capable of holding off and making the sky a deathtrap for whatever laughable notions of Air Superiority China might wetdream of
Amphibious urban assault pretty much kills any chances China might have. Can't unload a ship if RPGs are raining from skyscrapers. So not only do you need to capture a port, you need to engage in urban warfare at the same time, so you can keep your troops fed.
The union troops can have more RPGs among those skyscrapers in addition to vehicles.
This is how you do it, you drop it EMP weapon, and then the next six hours bombing missions, and then a land evasion. Solid plan.
No
If you're wondering why military planners aren't beating down your door to offer you a job, B_doc, your comment here is why.
Digging a tunnel would be easier