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I believe the correct comparison that should be made is something akin to the various times in which the British Isles have been invaded, and the difficult island-hopping warfare of WWII's Pacific Theatre. It's only gotten harder to make landings as technology and industrial capacity has improved, so as I see it, it's simply a matter of whether Taiwan and allies can keep enough materiel in play to keep sinking ships and planes. Everything can be bombed and the island can be blockaded, but so long as some submarines, radar and missile systems are kept operational, no landing will be made; it's just too easy in a precision-targeting environment to wipe out big, slow transport fleets. Taiwan's own subs are a token force, but they've started upgrading recently, and there's a high degree of deniability with naval engagements that emboldens allies.
I disagree that the technology made it harder to make landings. It made it easier in cases like China which has overwhelming superiority. China will just blockade Taiwan and reduce Taiwanese defense to ashes with planes, drones, missiles and MLRS. It may take 1 month of bombing in the best case or 6 months in the worst case. In the meantime all the submarines will be hunted down. After 1-6 months pf "Shock and awe" , arial invasion will initiate followed by naval invasion encountering weak resistance
The blockade can be enforced with missiles instead of ships. China will just declare a no go zone, like they did during the last military exercises. But in reality neither Taiwan nor China will want it to go kinetic. I use to live in Taiwan. They, like all people, just want to live in peace and carry on with their business with the mainland.
The world is much more dependent, economically, on China than Russia ... but the world is also much more dependent, economically, on Taiwan than Ukraine. Taiwan's influence on modern technology cannot be understated. Letting that fall into China's hands would be an epic disaster for the rest of the world.
@@qiaohong14 Doesn't matter, The U.S is waiting for China to do a mistake like invading Taiwan, in ww2 America pumped battle ships and submarines every freaking few hours out of their docks.
If PRC invades ROC, and USA does not intervene for such a strategically important ally, USA is probably done for as an alliance partner. Why should any of their allies believe they will act for them if they don't for Taiwan?
You didn't even mention the chip making factories in Taiwan that make over 90% of the world's most advanced chips. Those will play a big role in the war and whom supports Taiwan. The modern economy and technology would come to a halt quickly after those factories stop producing and we'd have to wait around a decade for things to get back to normal.
There are already plans in place to move the chip making equipment to Japan or destroy it in place. Either way, the CCP will NOT get their hands on it.
@@legbert123 It is also a pride thing for the CCP. The Nationalists on Taiwan set a 'bad' example by defying them for so long. Others in the PRC might get the idea that they too could defy the CCP.
It may never get back to normal. Btw, china’s semiconductor technology was developing 3 times faster than most other places. Although they are one generation behind, they would most likely catch up in 3 years. The other thing that most Americans seem to forget is that about 70% of all semiconductor engineers are Asian. It will be a lopsided competition once China and Taiwan ends up on the same side. Look up the figures on the progress and standing of China among the world’s top 100 supercomputers. Scary.
A friendly update Comrade Binkov: Taiwan's President has announced that Taiwanese conscripts will train for 1 year instead of 4 months as of next year.
Taiwan would fight to the end or be put in camps and have there body sold off you do not surrender to murders and japan would also get in to the war they would have no choice they may wait until China is wreaking then there is Hong Kong it would protest along with China people It would be the end of communist party Taiwan could also land with troops and weapons on Hong Kong to free it .china would run out of oil in two months the USA could stop all oil pipe lines can be bombed you do not have to destroy the China navy just cut off the oil then sink them the subs are another problem and should be the first target let hope that the people of China will not let this happen
Put simply, Taiwan is in a far weaker position geopolitically. but in a far better position geographically. Though the best the island nation can hope for is a long siege, largely alone. The problem is that China can and will throw bodies at their enemy, because unlike Russia, they can still do that. I do believe the Russo-Ukrainian War is the canary in the coalmine, much like Bleeding Kansas or the Spanish Civil War. American support is much more bipartisan for Taiwan. Ironically enough, a large force going in one morning would put China in the least danger in my opinion. China might do a Japan and try to sink our fleet in Okinawa, Guam, Seoul, Anchorage, Honolulu, or some combination, and Americans have plenty of reason to want the Communist regime in China utterly obliterated. Even if we don't, we have a particular ally that wants it a lot more (Japan) and they may force our hand if China doesn't.
@@Ceratisa The US primary interest is in maintaining its global superpower status. If it was just about Taiwan the US would never have dropped recognition for Taiwan!
I do think its different but the level is the same. The US wants to keep Taiwan away from China. They need to. Keeping Ukraine away from Russia is really just goodwill. But all of europe wants to stop Russias aggression so the support will continue.
I would not worry, the Republic of China i.e.taiwans subamarine fleet will stop the invasion as they cross the strait. A whole lot of chinese soldiers will perish
The TLDR version is that its harder for China to invade Taiwan compared to Russia invading Ukraine and It would be harder for Taiwan to get aid from the west than it is for Ukraine.
@@kirovfactory its what a lot of these war mongers do not seem to understand. China is the manufacturing capital of the world. That means if it comes to a war and they change to a war economy for every tank we build they will build 100. Worse, every single tank they build will be built cheaper than ours. I think the only thing stopping china right now is that they do not have a secure method of securing energy. That will of course change in a few years as russia builds pipelines and railway lines.
To add another point, Taiwan has been producing electronic chips that are used by the US and China for military technology and both of them are the biggest importer so any kind of invasion would be a massive loss for both sides while Ukraine just export agricultural
@@yin6287 Actually, I would doubt that the military is using the latest gen processors. China is only one gen behind Taiwan. I suspect that at their rate of improvement, they will be at parity in 3 years. By the way, top gen is usually of greater value in highest tech battery devices as well as supercomputers.
I think one of the major differences in infrastructure between Ukraine and Taiwan, the infrasctructure is what china wants. If taiwan saw invasion was imminent, they could kill their chip production machines and wipe the hard drives, china would get an island. China can't be too aggressive with missile attacks or risk damaging this capacity.
Those chip production will probably be blown up by the CIA anyway even if it is kept intact throughout the war. It’s pretty much a consensus by this point
Thing is if china can't have why should anyone else? It's about leveling the playing field and unless we stop our inherently antagonist systems it'll be hell
no. the fabs arent important because they are super fragile and will not survive even the "gentlest" war. and theres nothing special about them, its the equipment that is special (think EUV), and those are not made by taiwan (made by ASML in the netherlands). and china doesn't want taiwan for the chips. it wants it because historically its chinese (been part of china longer than the us has been a country) and history aside. strategically its very important because taking taiwan instantly breaks the US containment strategy, giving china open access to the pacific and makes japan and us bases there much more vulnerable
China imports 80% of is also a net importer of food. Russia, at least, is self-fucient in those. The effects of sanctions on China would be far worse than they have been on Russia
Is that shit in your head? 😂 ask ABCD, the four major grain merchants, how to starve the Chinese people. A war with China would increase the price of commodities many times all over the world, including the US. Who can afford that? How many supporters do you think the United States can get? Even in the absence of war, America's internal conflicts are evident. Start a war with China and the United States could simply disintegrate into 50 states. At best, a USA and a USB.
@@Commonlogicguy the plants in Arizona need years before they are fully online. And even then they have not enough capacity to come close to replace taiwanese factories.
@@fabxr right, keep telling you that if that makes you feel better. If not for the fact that Us doesn’t feel Taiwan can be defended then why even bother moving it out in the first place? I agree with you that it may take a while but Bette late than never.
@@anakborneo7993 Because even Taiwan do not consider itself different country. It's simply never ended civil war and Taiwan government consider all mainland China their territory.
I’ve read that war games have shown that Japan’s entry into the war alongside Taiwan and the U.S. is always decisive. That seems like a scenario Binkov should consider.
yeah, idk why all such videos that I've seen don't mention Japan, it could be way more important in defense of Taiwan than US, cuz they probably would be more engaged due to a lot of reasons
@@tritium1998 So they're going to stage a naval invasion of Taiwan against that country, the Japanese navy and the US Navy combined, somehow win that fight, and then have enough to keep going? That scenario strains credulity.
The video completely ignores the role of South Korea and especially Japan, who would definitely be against any invasion and who have significant armies themselves. It also ignores the homefield advantage that defenders have, pretty much necessitating at least a double or triple force even to have any realistic chance of success. This means that even with the most conservative estimate of mobilized Taiwanese force up to at half a million, China would need at least a MILLION troops, deployed over the Strait. Planning and logistics would be an absolute nightmare.
S.korea? Really? The country that couldn't shoot down N.korean drones busy snapping up pictures of THAAD? The country with missiles that misfired and had to apologise to its own citizens after? The country whose president who couldn't even be arsed to meet Pelosi after her taiwan visit? lol
There is also the fact that Japan and many other Asian countries consider Taiwan to be a breakwater for Chinese expansion. Even if the US does not want a war, the country may get dragged into it if Japan and South Korea get involved. Japan has increased military spending and given signs that it would absolutely get involved, although it's hard to say to what extent.
Which Asian Nation Recognized Taiwan. Thus Japan Recognized Taiwan Publicly. That will provide the best pre text for PLA to Nuke Japan. They still hold grudges for more than 25 Million Chines life's killed by Japan. In fact many Asian Nations still waiting to return Japan a favor. So we will support China in destroying Japan retribution for what Japan have done to our own nation. South Korea will join Japan 😳 that will be a good pretext for NK and PLA to Nuke SK as collaborator to Japan. Any one else?
A very thorough take on the situation. However what is left out of most reports is if China were to take Taiwan then that would give China control of 90% of the world's superconductor and semiconductor business which is not a pleasant idea for Western countries
it's a neutral idea for most western countries. it doesnt matter if the chinese in mainland china produce them, or if the chinese in the province of taiwan produce them. we are more aligned with china than with usakistan anyway.
@@sabin97 If China makes the semi conductors they'll always be used to make nukes and missiles. China will learn it one day if it's not stupid. But the main point of them is to make smart bombs.
Another idea, modern militaries of the axis powers (the entire Air Force, army, navy, etc) assisting their ww2 counterparts (the modern military has no idea of the future history but just fighting for the cause) (year can be either 1940, 1941 or 1942)
@@Finkaisar I think the Soviets would be the hardest to deal with, mostly cause of all the Folks they would be throwing at the US, but going if the US went through Manchuria, it would be much easier.
Abe said Japan will defend Taiwan. Japan has islands very close to Taiwan that the CCP also claims. Japan would build up its forces in the region as China does. If Japan and the US get involved, Australia, UK and France will too. UK is now permanently stationing 2 ships in Japan and France has a permanent squadron of 8 ships at Noumea. They and other NATO members will also send air forces. The problem for XJP is that Putin has forced the West to re-arm and ramp up munitions production to help Ukraine. This is the last thing China wants.
Britain and France still pretend they have a massive seaborne empire. Like in a war with China, their logistics will be stretched really thin. And also just by supplying Ukraine the West is burning through numerous stocks of weapons and munitions that are to last years. Like who’s rearming?
Abe said so only after he has retired as prime minister. It has been a consensus for residing prime minister to not say such things as it represents the official Japanese stance.
@@samuelefesoa7317 - Britain and France will operate as part of US forces using US, Japanese or Australian logistics. They all operate to the same NATO standards. The West is rearming. Production of munitions and missiles is being ramped to supply Ukraine and replenish Allied stocks. Do a bit of searching. It's the last thing last thing that XJP needs. Putin has really screwed XJP's pooch.
@@thomaszhang3101 - It's exactly the same as Biden saying he will defend Taiwan and then his office releasing a statement saying he supports strategic ambiguity. Abe would not say such a thing without the agreement of the Japanese PM. Or being asked to, by the PM. It is a way for the Japanese to unofficially announce a policy.
@@overworlder that means Japan will not necessarily intervene, but only depend on the circumstances of the time. That’s why it’s often said that the outcome of a war is decided before it starts: people negotiate and arrange very thing before the actual fighting begins.
Have anyone seen an American soldier in a real war? And by that i do not mean killing goat herders in Afghanistan or bombing caves that cant shoot back.
China sends for some years more and more Soldiers to UN Missions, there they get also get Training & some "action". So they, Indians, Indonesian, Nigerian, Spanish etc. Soldiers get mostly Training from German officers, because Germany often provides some for UN missions or takes the lead. Otherwise often British, US, French.
Any attack on Taiwan would be an opposed amphibious operation. China would have to fight a multi-layer battle before their first soldier stepped on Taiwanese soil. The phases would be gaining air and sea superiority, reducing coastal defenses, land troops, and supporting/supplying operations ashore. This would be complicated and risks stinging losses at each phase. Formosa (what Japan called Taiwan when they ran it in WW2) was bypassed by the US because it was a large island with numerous troops, and didn't want to tie up that many Allied troops before the invasion of Japan's home islands. Win or lose, it would be costly in terms of blood and treasure.
You make a lot of assumptions in this video. Read operation causeway. It’s likely that much more than 600k troops would be required. Also getting troops onto the island would be a nightmare. All this to be done by the Chinese military with hardly any real military experience.
Yeah China could never take Taiwan. The difference between China and Russia is that they are not stupid enough to try it. Also the West wouldn't be able to sanction them into oblivion.
yeah this wasnt his best work. I mean its not like Taiwan spent 60 years putting in fortifications in mountains. Or getting US to start supplying it with weapons. We are sending them Patriot and javelins already and looks like arms sells are way up. Also I find it funny how these " analysts" act as if China's military is not incredibly corrupt. PLA is directly funded by owning corporations. You are telling me they used all that money that no one else has oversight to 100% buy weapons????? RIght. China can go get curb stomped right along with Russia. Annoying how people in the West act so weak about authoritarian regimes.
China wouldn't ever try to invade Taiwan head on. It makes zero sense. They will soon have enough naval and air power to completely blockade the island and starve them into submission
Taiwan is best case scenario for defender and worst case scenario for the attacker. Taiwan has a massive island with few breach points and the backing of the best military in the world. China has to pull off the largest amphibious invasion in history against an island with completely inexperienced forces. Who also will have to fight the USA. The odds are quite clear.
@@mirror452 they absolutely do. Boots take ground. Boots hold it. Only way a bombing campaign works is if the USA doesn’t come to help. Then again As we’ve seen also bombing campaigns make fervent enemies not submissive servants. Just ask America in all our wars where we did massive bombing campaigns that just made our enemies multiply.
@@mirror452 "The PLA doesn't have to set a single foot on the island, btw." They're going to have to in order to complete reintegration of it, and even if theoretically all organized political and military resistance capitulated before then there is still the serious prospect of DISorganized political and military resistance. This is one reason why the 228 Incident is probably the most iconic part of Taiwanese History, since it showed similar problems. Issue is, it was against the KMT government with functionally unlimited support from the US, and it still was a massive problem to deal with. "The island is easily blockaded" Hahahah No. Like seriously, study blockade plans for things like Mindanao and Singapore. They are BEARS and while the advent of technology would mean a given platform will generally have wider operational and attack ranges, the lack of functional heavy support bases for the PRC Southeast of Taiwan will be a pita. " and chinese A2AD keeps the US away." Which raises the prospect of the US and any other allies willing to come along massing forces together into 1-5 task forces in order to force through the A2AD, which they would be capable of doing (and the CCP has admitted this) at present. "If Beijing wanted to, they could just starve the island." At which point they take possession of a starved out, angry populace. With Guns. And military training. Do you see how this could be a problem? There's a reason why the Qing never fully subjugated Taiwan, and why it took the KMT years even with unlimited US Aerial and Naval logistics support to do so.
The US government asked TSMC move its advance production out of Taiwan to the US, if the TSMC move out of Taiwan, the last safeguard against Chinese mainland is gone.
According to the U.S. Taiwan relations act "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability". If those services require the American military then they must be provided by law. There is no ambiguity there.
Hahaha US favourite playbook...a proxy war...let Taiwanese be another cannon fodder just like Ukrainians Go fight bro...we will support you with all the weapons you need just don't get killed eh hahaha
Differences: 1. Taiwan's status is ambiguous at best while Ukraine is internationally recognized as a sovereign nation. 2. The island is 1/16th the size of Ukraine. 3. War over Taiwan will primarily be a naval and air campaign. 4. Outcome is entirely dependent on direct foreign intervention (US and Japan).
If the war over Taiwan remains primarily a naval and air campaign, then China loses. The only way to shut down Taiwan’s truck mounted anti ship missiles is by occupying the entire country. Those missiles have range out to Korea or Vietnam- all maritime trade in and out of China will be shut down until Taiwan has been fully occupied by the PLA. A China without maritime trade will suffer complete economic collapse once its strategic petroleum reserve runs out. If China cannot quickly turn the contest into a ground war on Taiwan’s soil, China will lose. Catastrophically. China’s strategic petroleum reserve is estimated to be about three weeks worth of normal usage. With strict rationing, China might be able to sustain an invasion attempt for maybe two months. If China cannot get boots on the ground across the entirety of Taiwan in that period of time, then it is game over for China. And even if China accomplishes that conquest, China likely still loses. Getting PLA boots on the ground across all of Taiwan is just one step towards restoring China’s critical maritime trade lifelines. If China has attacked, say, US or Japanese facilities, China will have to defeat those countries along every inch of those critical maritime trade lifelines. And once that is done, then there is the work of getting the inevitable sanctions lifted. My biggest fear is that the Chinese don’t understand the scale of what they need to do to win and don’t understand the scale of what the consequences will be if they lose. I have connections to people on both sides of the Strait. If the PRC launches an invasion, the results will likely be horrific for all of them, no matter which side of the Strait they call home.
@@vmerkwurdigliebe3751 Nope. Not how this works. To eliminate the threat from mobile systems (like Taiwan’s truck-mounted anti-ship missiles), China needs to occupy the entire island. That is going to require huge numbers of boots on the ground, rooting defenders out foxhole by foxhole. The ground war will be an absolutely enormous campaign, and winning in the air or on the water does not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a victory on terra firma, given the time constraint that China will be operating under.
@@yopyop3241 Taiwanese military doctrine is based on holding out for two weeks on a hope and a prayer that Japan and USA intervenes. You severely underestimating China.
@@Yahushaphat1 Meh. Doctrine is nice, but what matters are capabilities. Taiwan’s capabilities are as I laid out. Closed, authoritarian countries like China have a strong tendency to underestimate their opponents. State controlled media fills people’s heads with propaganda and fake news. The leader at the top invariably ends up purging advisors who think for themselves and might disagree with the leader’s assessment. We are seeing this play out with Russia’s bungled invasion of Ukraine. The greatest risk for a cross-Strait war comes from misguided overconfidence on the part of Xi and the Chinese people. The invasion of Ukraine has turned Russia into dead man walking. An invasion of Taiwan will likely have the same outcome for China.
About the economy, the real question is, will EU, US, and UK stop importing goods from China because of this war? If many countries blockade China, many affordable goods will not flow into those countries because blockade goes both way. Will the local population of Europe and US willing to cost their standard of living for Taiwan which is not diplomatically recognized?
The manufacturing would just go back to Europe and the US and expand into Africa and South America, robotics and AI is changing manufacturing at a great pace.
It would be the end of family Dollar, and Dollar general and cheap imported Chinese products that we are so dependent on how much of Walmarts goods come from China...
Sir we have enough food we can’t fucking food we have the best fucking rice the best fucking cabbage the best fucking duck and why do you think Japan wants us?Partly because they want our food
Y’all are forgetting a few things: 1) there only a couple times of year the weather allows for an invasion, 2) China has to take control of Taiwan in that window or their troops will more or less cut off.
yup, all these youtube war planners always seem to forget the weather, weather will play a major role in the taiwan conflict specially strong typhoons are becoming more frequent in the region
@@emmanuelpacampara2096 they also forget the areas that China can actually land on. I remember there were like only 3 beaches actually fit for invasion.
@@belluh-1huey102 Also, they cannot destroy those ports...as it's the only place they can actually land as the rest isn't good and let remind them that they had a minor window for invasion as the rest is either fog, storms or typhoons. In fact, Taiwan is already prepare the idea that their airfield are going to destroy and in fact design their highways to allow them to be used as runways.
yeah Im pretty surprised this wasnt talked about, though I guess Binkov simply isnt that well educated on the topic yet and thus focussed more on numbers and politics. Ukraine up untill a couple of years ago was a country which didnt know what it wanted to be after the SU fell. Taiwan has armed and prepared for communist China since day 1.
Where the hell were those Chinese conscript numbers pulled out of? They have so many volunteers that they were complaining about the reduction in personnel numbers.
Total soldier count means little if you are not attacking via land border or defending. Ultimately it comes down to how many planes and boats they have, along with how many troops can you realistically move via them.
Looking at the wars of the 21st century, something I’ve noticed, and this opinion is worth what you pay for, the worlds reaction to wars are based on how disruptive the war is to the status quo of economics, moral protests always happen, but war in Georgia didn’t see the response war in ukraine did 2022, and war in ukraine 2014 didn’t see as much as 2022, invasion of Taiwan would annihilate the economic status quo of Taiwan (duh), China (duh), Japan, RoK, Australia, and USA just to begin the top boys
@@useritiswhatitis4655 that bread matters a lot to the people who mainly imported from Ukraine since it’s cheaper than say US Agricultural products, hence the UN missions to open the Black Sea ports of Ukraine (what’s left of them), but yeah, the disruption of Taiwan’s exports would be more severe on the global economy
The video simply makes too many assumptions. A lot of China's neighbours view them as either untrustworthy or potential enemies. Not only Japan and South Korea, but Vietnam and India too. What this means is that the forces they can use against Taiwan will be a lot smaller than listed here. Paranoid governments (like the CCP) will never leave most of their border unprotected. China is not likely to use more than 600 planes. And they will still need to leave at least 800,000 troops behind to protect their LONG borders. Also, a Taiwan invasion will require all Chinese naval forces to be used near Taiwan All. So, China would not be able to stop an American lead blockade of China itself. A Japanese/American task force will close access to the Pacific. An American/Australian/Singaporean task force can close access to the Indian ocean (and it is likely that the Indian Navy will help too). All maritime trade to and from China will cease very quicky. And there is nothing China will be able to do. Their navy still lacks deep blue capabilities. This means 90% of the petrol that China needs will stop coming, it also means a lot of the food China needs will stop coming too. A potential war with China will also not affect the West the same way that Ukraine affected it. Basically, energy will not be an issue. Russia might say "we will not sell you oil/gas" to the West.. But, considering the West is no longer buying Russian power.. it will mean nothing. All the other oil/gas producers will have two options. Lose billions of dollars by NOT selling the energy that will be blockaded from China, or to sell the oil to other parts of the world.. Honestly, a war on China will probably LOWER the cost of energy for the rest of the world.
@@力魏-t4b Yes I'd join up and many others. Itching for a war that's better than Afghanistan. USA might be able to muster 2 million willing recruits in a few months.
The US and India would cut off shipping to China through the Indian ocean and the US wouldn't allow anything to come across the Pacific, cutting off the majority of their energy imports and food imports. The US Navy never has to come into direct conflict to devastate the Chinese.
@@didyoumissedmegobareatersk2204 They are. The vast majority of their ships are incapable of sailing more than a 1000 miles from their shores and they are the country most dependent in the world on international shipping. They have some major weaknesses that are easy to exploit.
@@J_X999 if you have anything intelligent to say on the matter say it. Are Chinese ships more capable than what I am saying? If so what evidence can you provide? What reference? Vague statements or insults indicate you have nothing intelligent to say on the subject.
One thing i learnt from Binkov and the war in Ukraine is that armchair analysts are really super shit at predicting what could happen in a war. Binkov was saying that Russia could defeat the european union because it had so many tanks. They can’t even take out Ukraine. There is no reason to believe things would be different with Taiwan. We have no idea wha twould happen, no idea how the chinese army, which has not been at war for many decades would perform and do on and so forth.
European Union is defeated economically, under record all times high since WW2 hyperinflation and being deindustrialized and quickly becoming a third world. Hows that not a defeat ? Without a single tank crossing the border of EU
@@IZn0g0uDatAll Unfortunately yes, quite often actually. A filthy shithole with rubbish littered all over the place, without parking spaces and looking more like africa-middle east that "europe" . Hows that not a shithole ? lol
Basically imagine Operation Sea Lion. Except the "sea" separating the island from the mainland is MUCH bigger. Plus one side has the world's biggest navy on its side and any effort to take the island would leave the mainland vulnerable in other areas by neighbors that either hate, dislike or just don't care about the mainland nation. IF the island is taken, it'd be a pyrrhic victory and the mainland would have to both fund and supply the rebuilding effort. And after all that, their political clout would be at the bare minimum half spent.
The biggest problem for China is a failed Taiwanese invasion may invite a military coup. I suspect they would be worried about this from the start and so hinder the military that they become ineffective - e.g. requiring ccp to be in the loop for any military decisions.
Here's the trump-card: China is wholly-dependent upon seaborne commerce to sustain itself. There are no overland supply-routes that can maintain the Chinese economy. If China attacked Taiwan, the United States and, I suspect, the entirety of the Far-East would immediately declare a blockade of China. That would be enforced by the combined naval powers of all of the allied nations. Additionally, China's navy, while very powerful on paper, has weaknesses that history has shown to be an Achilles Heel. The leaders in the CCP know all of this, which is why they won't pull the trigger on a Taiwan invasion......... Unless their regime is in danger of collapse, in which case, all bet are off (Including the use of nuclear weapons on Taiwan, as well as Guam, Okinawa and other theater-base assets)
China is the world's factory. You see Russia with the embargo on it is still able to find buyers and circumvent sanctions. Now, this time, unlike with Russia, the American economy is reliant on China too. Its not as simple as embargoing China... it would take years and decades to return manufacturing to the US in full force. America cannot just "cut off" China unless it wants to lose access to a huge proportion of its finished textile goods, smartphones, semiconductors, plastics, etc. etc. Embargoing China would give it a full unbridled ability to trade with other sanctioned states, even if China was weakened, its embargoing would be a boon for other sanctioned countries (Iran, Russia, Syria, NK, Afghanistan, etc.) as well as all Eurasia countries more willing to buy cheaper from China than anger USA (what are we gonna do, sanction everyone?) like India and Africa. All of China's manufacturing will be in place and the West will be depleted of it. Western economies would literally fall apart too...
Well, it's kinda impossible to blockade China as they're paramount for global economy. How would this blockade be sustained? Sinking all ships trying to come across? How would the countries of origin react to their commercial fleet being sunk by foreign powers? Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Angola, Argentina, Venezuela and so on wouldn't survive without Chinese imports of their natural resources. They wouldn't accept at all this kind of blockage to their exports. Hell, how would the US' and Europe's economy survive? They can't even produce customers goods let alone enough steel for keep their nations going without China. This scenario of yours just wouldn't work out at all like you're supposing.
Exactly why they started belt and road, once all infrastructure is in place to sustain china with more land options, then an invasion to retake the islands will take place im sure
Fanboys here have no clue of how extremely difficult it is to invade an fortified island country. Crossing the sea transporting heavy armored vehicles and millions of troops while anti ship missiles firing your direction, the beach being bombarded while trying to land, maintaining the supply line across the strait. And if the war doesn't end within a year typhoon season. Taiwan could call up 1.6 million troops. 1:3 rule states that an invasion force will need 4.8 million troops to be successful, this is not even considering an amphibious type invasion. Does China even have enough transportation ships? How many times do they have to go back and forth while being bombarded at the beach? The last time China tried invading another nation(Vietnam) at their border without a sea to cross, they got kicked out in 4 weeks and loss 26,000 troops in a single month. What more trying to cross the Taiwan Strait? Logistic nightmare. Side note: (for reference, the US loss 241 troops per month on average in the Vietnam war). Now compare that to China's 26,000 troops loses in a month
Vietnam didnt push china out, it is china initiative to withdraw troops , it is like russia voluntarily withdraw from kiev and kherson not being push out by ukraine, deng xiaoping before war stated that he will not involve in a long war in consideration soviet will intervene and make problems complicated for china, if it is vietnam pushing china out, then how comes china still hold a territory gain over vietnam even after the war ceased, those gain territory were given back to vietnam later. In less than 2 weeks, china reach langson most strategic important cities highground and cease their operation due to fear of soviet intervention
Another reason why Moscow did not intervene was because Beijing had promised both Moscow and Washington that the invasion was only a limited war, and that Chinese forces would withdraw after a short incursion. After moderation by the U.S., Moscow decided to adopt a "wait and see" approach to see if Beijing would actually limit their offense. Sino vietnam war was a limited war and not a full blown war, china reach the objective langson cities and withdraw, vietnam didnt push china out as they claimed
The major casualties that should be for US troops actually transferred to South Vietnamese soldiers. People often forgot US troops didnt fight alone, they had South Vietnamese soldiers to withstand the casualties. While South Vietnamese soldiers had casualties of more than hundred thousand, exceed far more than US.
The Chinese held 1,636 Vietnamese prisoners and the Vietnamese held 238 Chinese prisoners. They were exchanged in may-june Casualties number can be lied, but pow number cant, vietnam is simply using chinese voluntariy withdrawal as their propaganda
On 6 March, China declared that the gate to Hanoi was open and that their punitive mission had been achieved. During the withdrawal, the PLA used a scorched-earth policy, destroying local infrastructure and looting useful equipment and resources (including livestock), this severely weakened the economy of Vietnam's northernmost provinces.
@@KevinAssalin I'm not sure if that's true or not off the top of my head but assuming it is true it's still irrelevant Japan has changed their defense policy considers the sovereignty of the island integral to their defense. Have said they will send planes and ships
@@sleepyjoe4529first only if China uses nukes . And then there nuked . It's not happening with nukes. Second there are around 83 either fully controlled by the us or jointly controlled military, naval, and air bases in Japan if Japan is attacked like that usa are forced to get involved
Actually China did not use Conscripts, they have their own version of US Army National Guard called "Militia of China" which comprised of individuals who hold a civilian job full-time while serving part-time as a reserve units.
An interesting point raised in another video was the possible effect of China's one child policy. The social upheaval of families losing their only offspring and heir could well be critical, even if it does reduce population pressure and helps balance China's male/female ratio.
A lot of warfare is now unmanned, China isn't stupid enough to just send millions of young men to their deaths on the shores of Taiwan. Drones and missiles would be much more suited.
@@J_X999 the question that comes up then is if China has enough reconnaissance resources to perform proper BDA on thousands of missile and drone strikes against Taiwan and if China has enough munitions stockpile to keep Taiwanese defenses down until they move men onto the island.
To better understand the China-Taiwan situation, you have to know that China and Taiwan is like North Korea and South Korea. Two governemnts two countries but actually they both want to be united, except none of the governments want to be subdue to the other government.
I agree with most of the things mentioned in this video. However, here is some point that I would like to add. 1) While the shear number of CCP military is huge, Taiwan do have counter measures, like different medium range anti ships and land missiles are more capable then you implied. These abilities with US intelligence, it is much harder for PLA to safely assemble troops, planes and ship, and move them across the sea then video stated I afraid. 2) For air dominance, I think you have kind of overstated PLAAF abilities too. I do agree Taiwanese AF will have a hard time in defending their air space, but it won't be a landslide like the 1500 to 300 number you mentioned, and it wouldn't be as bad as Ukraine. J10 is not made for invading purpose, PLAAF will likely using J11, J16, Su30mkk, Su35 for their attack, with some limited use of J20(depending on when the conflict happens. I do think PLA unlike Russia, would make use of its 5th gen aircraft). Total counts of these aircraft is more in the 500-600 range(only part of these will be used in Taiwan), and only the 5th gen J20 would be a real threat to Taiwanese AF. Taiwan also have counter measures that can threaten PLAAF base. 3) Both China and Taiwan have difficult geo political problem. China is being surrounded by enemies. India, South China Sea, will have potential conflicts once war with Taiwan broke out. Taiwan, as you said, is not recognised as a country by UN, and it may resulted in fewer countries in the world willing to stand for Taiwan, especially China do have a lot of influence in World economy. However, Taiwan is an important participant in world economies and industry too, and have great tactical value to US and its allies. 4) Yes supplying Taiwan if war broke out would be hard. However, blockade of Taiwan will be much harder as it required insane resources for air and sea control arround Taiwan, and Taiwan do have counter measures as I mentioned. Also, such blockade will introduce new problem to CCP too. If US or Japan ship do try to go through, do CCP really want to start a war with them by shooting down the ship? 5) Ukrainian Force is much more experienced Russian forces in the start of the war. A good number of the troops has experience fighting in the Donbas war. And Ukrainian is more mentally prepare for the war, due to previous conflict experience. Both Taiwanese and PLA troops has no real war experience, and training quality of both seems to be not as great. But I afraid we do have no idea how bad it will affect us when the war started, our mental will be more easily to break down. No matter what happen, once this war started, the world, (and sadly my life) will definitely be changed forever. FUCK ALL WARS.
Yes, but on its own its not enough to deal with China near Taiwan, to do some serious damage to the Chinese fleet so far away from friendly ports they'd need powers with Nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers like the US, UK and France to intervene, as Japan's naval doctrine is defensive, even though their fleet is massive
They have to, since a chinese Taiwan would threaten Japans security very much. Others say China would need to invade Okinawa to secure the sea around Taiwan.
We can't forget the Japanese wildcard in case of an Invasion of Taiwan. And if the US did get into a shooting war South Korea would be involved considering US assets there. Which in turn could get North Korea involved by proxy
@@mbtenjoyer9487 TW is only about 100km from Japan's Sakishima Islands, which in turn links it closely to other islands all the way to mainland Japan. Japan has a very big vested interest in that region, knowing well that the capture of Taiwan would mean her own encirclement in the future to come. So while I'm not going to predict what they might or might not do, sitting back and just chill might not be high on their agenda, in the outbreak of hostilities.
Invading by sea is the most difficult of military maneuvers. I seriously doubt that any major power could pull it off against determined, well planned defenses. It doesn't take many surviving defense systems to upset an amphibious invasion.
There had not been a major amphibious operation on the scale needed to take Taiwan since at least the Korean war. Nobody really knows if modern technology makes it easier or harder.
Pretty much all of the China vs Taiwan videos I see gloss over or completely ignore that fact. They just compare the numbers and act almost as if they share a land border. Arguably, despite the enormous build-up of forces, the only reason the invasion of Normandy succeeded was b/c the Allies kept the Germans guessing and deceived them into believing the main landings were going to be somewhere else. China has no such luxury. There's only one area they can attack, they won't be able to hide their build-up, and Taiwan's allies will be simultaneously flooding Taiwan with MANPADS, ATGMs, anti-ship missiles, and possibly foreign volunteers. Plus, they never mention that the PLA is corrupt, poorly trained, ill-equipped, led by politicians, and has absolutely zero combat experience. Doesn't sound like a winning combination to me.
@@jamesbarca7229 there is always a "corrupt milutary offcial" card. If you are worried about the water between china and taiwan then the water between US and taiwan. Maybe there is difficulty but it is so much harder fir US to transport supply to taiwan. China only needs to blockaed taiwan and that is it. No need for ground forces
@@515coldfire I've said many times that they may try to blockade Taiwan, which is a more realistic option imo, but then they will in turn be essentially blockaded themselves (sanctions, embargoes, if not flat-out intercepting ships at sea). They will have their oil and coal supplies cut off etc. along with all the ramifications (militarily, economically, and societally) that come along with it. At that point, all bets are off. I don't know how that one plays out, but it's certainly not as easy as just blockading Taiwan and waiting for them to surrender. If it were, they would have already done it.
@@jamesbarca7229 blockading china is possible but that means the whole world will suffer. Imagine the whole world stop trading that is insane. Imagine oil price goes up to 200 per barrel. The society with higher living standard will collapse over night. Blockade will still be a better option for china and bombing the country from mainland is an option.
The US could not afford to lose Taiwan due to semiconductor production. Incorrectly saying that the US could afford to lose it is how miscalculations happen. The US *WILL* defend Taiwan.
@@serpenzaisasoblaowhy86ishi29 Kuwait did not have a defense agreement either, but it still didn't go will for Iraq. (Why the hate for Serpenza and Laowhy. They actually like China. They just hate that the CCP is killing its own people, minorities in china like Uyghurs, attacking boarder countries like India and Taiwan all while suppressing their own people who cannot even use VPNs as China fears the people knowing their lack of freedom.)
@@firerock9320 loool easy right because that 2 losers is spreading misinformation...their main goal is to ignorant people like yourself who have never visited China before and you easily taken in their lies...so eg if I take a few short clips and show you how dirty is india ... isit 100% true? If you have followed some of their followers you will know initially when serpentA earlier videos were very objective...but after getting kicked out china he turn to make anti china video which gets him more subs...seem to be anti china can make him more money...watch those expats who now still are living in china now like Daniel dumbrill...gweilo70...Jerry goode etc...what they say about that 2 guys
The US is protecting only one thing, TSMC semi conductors. They will not directly send troops, they will along with Japan, shoot down planes, destroy naval forces for Taiwan from the Japan Island Chains, so there will be a lot of missiles flying around with planes. China will eventually win because they have the best naval force and the numbers as well as supersonic missiles arguably best in the world with Russia.
@@carlpeters7131 Taiwan is a key part of the first Island chain that the U.S. and Japan would want to defend to hem Red China in.. Again you know nothing about strategic planning. China is not to be allowed to break through the first island chain they are to be hemmed in by the islands with America and Japan's navies with help from Australia to use air power and subs as I have said, before. China will be out gunned and surrounded on all sides. No DIRECT invasion just being economically strangled. With America's subs and air power combined with Japan and Australia's navies China is a dead duck!! If we can get India in as well She can block China's trade going through the Indian ocean and the straits of Malacca!!! GAME SET and MATCH!!! End of China as a major power poking its nose in the AMERICAN LAKE known as the PACIFIC OCEAN!!! As I said before GAME SET and MATCH!!! China loses!!!!
Japan is also involved in Taiwan invasion. Japan depends on sea around Taiwan for trade routes to Middle Easton. Japan doesn't want to have their trade routes blocked so Japan surely join the conflict to protect Taiwan and their trade routes.
@@archangel7052 u can pretty say that for every country in in that region. China is the biggest trading partner for North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Mongolia, and the ASEAN.
This is the best analysis of Taiwan vs. Ukraine so far. Many youtuber only mention how the strait makes it harder to conduct an amphibious landing, and neglect how the strait also makes foreign support harder to reach.
The way Ukraine is keeping Russian ships at bay with relatively small means is a strong indicator over how dangerous it would be, they even attacked smaller Russian boats closer to shore with ATGMs multiple times. The Taiwan Strait and its beaches could turn into a Chinese ship graveyard.
@@rogersmith7396 Both of those battle occured before 100km+ anti-ship missiles were a thing. Falklands 1982 is a better example, and Argentina caused us (UK) a lot of hassle with very few missiles.
1- China isn't Russia 2- China has the biggest economy in the world by adjusted PPP terms not the Sixth 3- China's military is shown to be less corrupt than Russia 4- This isn't the Black sea 5- China has the second-best-funded military in the world 6- The USA Ministry of Defense has stated multiple times that China has full control of the first island chain with its massive ballistic missile network and giant navy on the Chinese coast around taiwan and by their words going past Taiwan would be an American Ship Graveyard
@@MrEddieLomax The UK wouldnt go and transfer thier navy to go fight China and China has a bigger but less capable Sub fleet than America it holds 2nd place in the regard not taking anything else into account
US is the only one country in the World which still has the capacity to defeat China, and Japan, not at all, if Japan get involved, they may repeated the same fate of Mongol Empire, the Mongol has first defeated and conquered the Han Chinese, but once the Chinese counter-attacked, the North Yuan capital get raided, Dzungur Empire get eliminated and Inner Mongolia becomes Chinese, Japan want to "defend" Taiwan, but they risk to lose Okinawa,
Yeah, China isn't really in a position to fight a global war. They don't have the force projection that the US has to protect trade, shipping, and commerce generally. They have to import food and they're currently experiencing a water crisis. Their military also has zero experience.
That don't ture, China struggled heacily with food security for years. At least, the starvation don't occupy when you do some research online(China is one of the biggest wheat and grain producers in the world) And over 80% of energy consumption from coal and hydro (that can produce by themselves), the only weakness is oil or gasoline, but china is moving fast to EV and now account for more than half of EV producing in the world. After two decades, China will significantly reduce demands to oil and energy dependency
The only point missing is the weather. Taiwan really only has two 2 month invasion windows one in spring and one in fall. Any other time of the year China would not be able to conduct large landing on Taiwan or resupply a large military force there. That is a large reason Taiwan does not need as large of an ammo reserves. The war will be decided in roughly 3 months, either China captures a deep water port and brings overwhelming numbers or they fail to capture a deep water port and resupply becomes nearly impossible.
At the very least I’m pleased to see a military analysis that doesn’t assume China’s opening move is ferrying their entire army across the strait without support.
You forgot a few things. Taiwan produces most of the worlds most advanced microchips. The "west" needs those as they are more advanced than what China can make. Japan has said they would get involved on Taiwans side. The Philippines, Australia, and the UK have also indicated they would support Taiwan.
Taiwan is surrounded by seas compared to Ukraine. Taiwan also has the advantage because they can just boost their armed forces especially the Navy and Airforce by acquiring/building major platforms such as numerous midget submarines, unmanned submersible vehicles,truck based anti-ship missiles, sea mines, layer surface-to-air missiles system, kamikaze drones. Furthermore, taiwan can boost its army with major platforms such as mobile artilleries, APCs, IFVs, ATGMs, MANPADs. But above all, coordination and logistics are the main key role if conflict will arise between Taiwan and China
Taiwan has some pretty impressive kamikaze drones, let's hope their asymmetrical capabilities will give them a chance. None of us expected Ukraine to perform this well either
@@Kevin-mk6jo midget will result to high quantity does allowing your opponent to exert more power to destroy them. For example, if taiwan has atleast 50- midget submarines that are capable of firing atleast 2 heavyweight torpedoes. Destroying them is not easy since they are lurking at very shallow/shallow waters where the enemy's ASW will be more vulnerable to other platforms such as anti-ship missiles, kamikaze drones, and SAMs.
Taiwan has been designing and building their own anti ship missiles for the last 40 years. They have at least 1000 of them. It's almost as if they worked it out years ago
One thing no one seems to talk about in a potential Taiwan/China conflict is that 1. Japan has stated in no uncertain terms that they will go to war with China over Taiwan. 2. China doesn't have a stranglehold on the world economy, it's actually the opposite. China imports the vast majority of its food and oil and there are no viable routes to be able to fill in the gaps when merchant ships of all nations have zero interest in sailing into a war zone, or the strait of Malaka is very easily blockaded. Aside from rare earth minerals, much of the production that china was so amped about is moving south to Vietnam,India ect.
China has a massive stranglehold on the world economy. They export the most out of any country and make up the most imports from the us, majority of Africa and Europe. China has invested trillions in the belt and road initiative, made up of infrastructure, ports and airports. They can import food from Mongolia who has a massive surplus. They also have a massive supply of coal and oil
Yesterday is the China National Memorial Day for Nanjing Massacre Victims. Guess what China will do to Japan if it go to war with China. Don't worry, no nuclear weapon.
That is so wrong. The entire reason China has the influence they have is because they have a stranglehold on the world economy. Just because it also relies on the world does not mean the world doesn't rely on it. A China that gets sanctioned would cause world prices for everything to shoot up to quickly that it is debatable if any economy could survive. Not to mention while many industries are moving down to other countries China still holds many many industries key to the production of basically any product you can think of.
@@Henry-xu5jg China’s economy depends entirely on the Western market at this point because Africa does not have the economic base to replace that market. Withdrawal from the China relationship began years ago, and the West can cut China off completely when it attacks Taiwan. South Korea, Japan, NATO, Vietnam and Australia will defend Taiwan. Invasion of Taiwan is absolute insanity, especially since China’s economy is already badly affected by its real estate crash and boycott of Western technology.
@@Henry-xu5jg it’s a lot easier to find someone to make stuff for you than finding someone to buy the stuff you make. Mongolia can’t feed China. Even the entirety of American food exports -the US being by far the largest food exporter in the world-, couldn’t supply China with all the food they need in a famine. China is very oil poor for its population size, which is why it imports so much from the Middle East. As for coal, they have a fair amount, but they’re choking to death on its smoke.
@@jakemocci3953 there’s a difference between a global power and a superpower. Plus, when was the last time they actually had a real war their troops have no actual combat experience experience like the US does..
Honestly your predictions are flawed. 1. It’s an island and guns run on oil and power. It’s never cold in Taiwan so it isn’t required to stay warm unlike Ukraine. 2. China would suffer economically because of sanctions. They would convert some of their manufacturing capacity to war which people don’t want to support. Probably not as much as Russia but still pretty bad. 3. Blockade would hurt their economic status quo 4. I see Taiwan to be similar to Austria. Taiwan is just the beginning, Indian border disputes will be next and it won’t stop until Mao Zedongs vision is accomplished. 5. There is heavy corruption in the military and China has a history of military leaders betraying leaders and taking advantage of the chaos to get in power. How else did the CCP gain power?
Loool vietnam chancellor was the first to visit xijinping on his 3rd term recently South Korea is totally depending on china for its imports and exports as largest trading partner Japan ? If Japan dares to intervene don't forget china just remembered nanking recently ...china would just loves if Japan intervenes ... its pay back time hahaha
As Peter Zihan has pointed out, it would be relatively easy to cut off China's oil supply from the Middle east. Park a few destroyers near the Straights of Malaka, and China loses 80% of its oil. How long could they fight then?
China hypothetically could run for years with a combination of land based imports, rationing, exploiting domestic shale supplies and coal liquification.
Yes thats chinas achilles heel but western malacca/gulf blockade's success is contingent upon western govts staying the course long enough for impact to be felt. Because 1) No oil import into china means no cheap exports to rest of the world. Stock markets collapse n hyperinflation in USA. 2) China can get energy thru land route from Russia n CIS for military means n still survive for a few months. 3) China is world biggest maker of solar/renewable/nuclear power plants. So that cushions its energy needs. Because of central command economy, it can easily adjust its energy mix n survive with 70% of normal energy. So for blockade to have any real impact it has to stay in place for years. Dont think western politicians have the stomach to lord over the social chaos 80% drop in S&P n retirement funds/pensions would cause for a year.
And if you've watch all of Zeihan's videos in this last year, you realize that China is already in the process of imploding. In fact anyone that has money invested in China has already lost it and just isn't honest enough with themselves to realize it yet. China is gone.
@@hughmungus2760 @Suhel Mullick Land based imports? really guys? Do you have any idea how many trains you have to run to transport one small tanker worth of oil?
Amphibious invasion of a heavily defended island is a much more complicated and harder task than what Russia had to deal with in Ukraine (where they litarly just drove tanks across the border)......seeing what a disaster it turned out for a ''easier invasion'' route, I really wouldnt presume China would deal better at its little adventure. Plus China's military legit has no war experience of almost any kind at all, and we have seen that ''impressed training footage'' means jack shit in real war.
How long did it take for the US to colonize the Philippines island? I agree with you that china would easily take over Taiwan as the US did with the Philippines because the Philippines was an island.
@@titaniumskunkogkush4365 the Philippines are an archipelago, and I'm pretty sure it took like 3 years. the Japanese however, took it in a couple of months.
@@titaniumskunkogkush4365*How long did it take for the US to colonize the Philippines island?* It took THREE YEARS. The Japanese took it in 1942. The Americans took it back in 1945. Conservative estimates is that more than 420,000-500,000 were killed during the struggle (and that was with OLD and DATED military weaponry.) *I agree with you that china would easily take over Taiwan as the US did with the Philippines because the Philippines was an island.* Percival wasn't saying it would be easy,. He was pointing out why it would be difficult, due to it being an amphibious assault on a fortified island. So I don't know who you are "agreeing" with here. China could not "easily" take Taiwan for numerous reason, the biggest of all being the US. If China could have "easily" taken Taiwan back, it would have already done so (as it has been continually saying for the last SEVENTY YEARS.)
(b)(3) of the Taiwan Relations Act. It reads, "the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;"
It's ridiculous to think that Taiwan would not be aided by the Quad. At a minimum, Japan, the US, and Australia would be involved immediately. Ships flagged by other non-beligerents would not be a valid target without a declaration of war. And legally, such a declaration would be more trouble than it's worth for China.
India is a member of the Quad and the SCO. It is bordering China in very inhospitable areas and does not want to play the role of Italy at the Isonzo, but profit by playing both sides. The remaining Quad members, as Japan is mainly a US puppet and Australia not much better off. However, Japan has a pacifist constitution, which limits its political and legal wiggle room to intervene in the conflict, while constraining its military capabilities. Australia is far away, with a very limited military capabilitiy, due to its rather small populaton and GDP. In the end, it will be mainly the US that joins the conflict. If South Korea opts to join as well, it will immediately pay the price, with Seoul being in reach of Norh Korean artillery and North Korea being completely dependent on China for survival.
@@antyspi4466 I would be shocked if a revised Japanese constitution had not already been drafted ready to be implemented in the case of regional conflict - I'd actually bet hard currency on that. Australia has limited power projection, however if we assume 4 of 6 Collins Class are deployed around the relevant choke points (which is what they've been doing for decades) China's access to external energy inputs are over (btw AUS has the worlds 14 largest nominal GDP). If shit hits the fan and NK gets involved I would also bet hard currency that very low yield tactical nukes would be employed to neutralise their artillery.
bruh,South Korean and Japanese all invaded and kill taiwanese.friends.bruh,if south korean and japanese can be friends with taiwanese ,then mainland chinese can even more
@@yuluoxianjun lol! You really have no concept of history, do you... Japan took over Taiwan while China was busy with its warlord period at the end of the Qing Dynasty. The Qing basically abandoned it, so Japan moved in and started to develop it as a colony. The Taiwanese actually like Japan for doing that. They didn't just go in and start killing anyone. And South Korea had nothing to do with that. It was annexed by Japan by force. Meanwhile the Chinese communists had a civil war with the government that controlled Taiwan after WWII. The CCP is evil and just a corrupt mafia group, nothing more. No one can be friends with the CCP. The CCP is cancer.
The biggest difference between the two possible conflicts..... The US has a treaty with Taiwan to intervene. It had no such treaty with Ukraine. Ukraine couldn't join the UN for that protection earlier because of 1) they didn't have secure and established borders (separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea) and 2) All current UN members would have to unanimously vote in future members (Turkey being semi-partial to Russia would of blocked that). With any Aggression showed by China towards Taiwan (In build ups in preparation of invasion) An American aircraft carrier strike group would be in range (If not 2) to defend. Also, Airbases and units in Japan would be at the ready to support. China would have to win fast (Like Russia would of had to do) to escape any sanctions it can't afford. Food, Oil and Coal are huge imports for China. It would not take long for any sanctions to have affect. Last but not least is China's population control policies. Once casualty reports start coming in and the only offspring you were allowed has perished.... the mental stability of civilian Chinese is not something to overlook. May not be something other people would think about, but a country that hasnt see a major war in generations may be ill prepared for the death toll one would bring.
@@elijahgacheru360 The TRC still allows the US the ability to act. It's not the same as before with response being automatic in the MDT. But the point is still relevant to the topic of having a treaty vs not having one in regards to the ability to act.
In the United Nations system, Taiwan is China's territory, so most countries in the world will not accuse the CCP of invading (except for the closest allies of the United States), which is completely different from Ukraine, which is a legal country officially recognized by the United Nations. Any country that sends weapons to Taiwan during the war will be regarded as an enemy country by China, then China will cut off all supplies, and the impact of inflation will far exceed that of the Russia-Ukraine War
@@windcold4532 Countries are already diverting from China as a manufacturing hub with many preferring to manufacture most things in their own countries. If China was at war, the impact would not be as hard as you imagine. It's called the covid effect.
@@elijahgacheru360 More than 70% of the world's solar power generation devices are Chinese companies (such as China's Longji Green Energy), the world's largest battery supplier is China's CATL (which is the main supplier of Tesla cars), and of course 90% of the world's wireless Human-machine suppliers are all Chinese companies, such as DJI and autel
Remember when Binkov predicted a very one sided war when assessing Russia vs Ukraine, with Russia winning in his scenario not too long ago? Yeah his opinions have as much validity as a fish that can't breathe underwater
16:21 I would add that unlike Russia, China is a major agricultural importer. Russians can afford to be isolated because they have the basic building block of a modern society within their borders, being Energy and Food. China is an importer of both. As long as US Navy rules the high seas China is always under threat that's discounting it's strategically competent neighbors
@@Fauzanarief-n7i You mean by those fake numbers the Chinese puts out? The farmers there report record crop yiields every year, the government has by policy a massive food reserve to sustain itself for I believe it was a year but when the lockdowns started the people starved, where was the food? China is a great liar, if they would be honest they wouldn't need such a big censor cover, we the west put all our embarrassing mistakes in the open so we can work to make it better but you Chinese pretend like everything is perfect while your people are dying silently. Go live in the world of the network where everything is perfect while we here in reality are trying to make the world a better place for everyone.
If Taiwan thinks that it does not belong to China, it should revise its country name, constitution, and national flag, otherwise the world will not be able to support Taiwan. You cannot let other countries violate the diplomatic foundation with China because of fear of war.
It won't just be US joining the fight for Taiwan, Japan will face an existential threat if Taiwan is taken, and it cannot afford not to defend Taiwan. And with that, the Quad will likely get involved. India may impose a blockade in the Indian Ocean, and Australia may send some naval elements to join the US fleet for blockades in the South Pacific, but will definitely stop all resources supply to China. Furthermore, submarines are the key, even more than air and rocket assets. US has superior submarine resources to China, and are much better trained in anti-submarine warfare. China is starting to build some decent submarines with good AIP systems due to their technological edge in batteries, but their submarine force and much of the navy are newly built and may not compare to the US Navy experience-wise. Taiwan itself is also embarking on building its own submarines, and the longer it is until China does invade, the better the chance that this will succeed. As Ukraine have shown it is possible for Taiwan to build small swarms of maritime drones to overwhelm defenses and damage or destroy vessels, if they unleash this against China's landing force, they could damage or sink a lot of the landing craft and the escorts will not be able to do much about it with their current equipment - those Taiwanese video gamers will prove their worth as drone and UAV pilots.
Loool how funny you to talk about drones when china have more drone technology and manufacturing capability on these. Yup more drones will be used...except its china using on taiwan not the other way round hahahaha
you have to be fair, russia barely has a navy and its shitty as fuck. the only thing that they really have naval wise is extremely long range supersonic missiles... which are not so useful if anything gets close to you.
@@serpenzaisasoblaowhy86ishi29 should we show them the video of chinese drones effortlessly flying through a forest? Gonna be some hard lessons if we end up in a war with china.
One of the biggest things that helps Taiwan is their chip industry. All highly advanced chips come from Taiwan. So alot of US military chips aswell. The US needs Taiwan. And if China incorporates Taiwan the U.S might likely loose their advanced chips. Which they wont allow.
@@ts757arse Exactly and that is why the U.S will respond to Taiwan with force. They are reliant on them. The U.S are making domestic chips with the help of Taiwan but always "inferior" chips. The newest and latest chips are only made on Taiwan itself. Which they want to keep that way because it is a safeguard. The moment countries can make the chips themselves, they are in trouble
@FD&BJ Yeah so ive read aswell. That was the thing I pointed out with Taiwan holding the best chips factories within their border. As long as that is there they are "safe". The U.S and China both work on getting their own factories up but they are just not there yet in terms of skill.
Exactly. Japan would join because China claims Japanese islands which are just beyond Taiwan. The only country in the region that wants China to win is China.
Thank you. So many people forget or don't know that there are a ton of neighbors who will get involved directly or heavily supply Taiwan, regaurdless of what the US does.
South Korea probably as well. Taiwan is crucial for USA, Japan and South Korea thanks to enormous microprocessor manufacturing capacity. China would also shot itself into leg should TSMC be destroyed.
yeah, it would be a big ol mess lol. I don't think the chinese can afford that mess and hold on to power but sillier things have been done to justify a regime
@@goodluck250 As a Chinese mainlander, I completely agree, and I can see that it is because of the historical hatred between China and Japan. Before Japs intervened, there may have been some disagreement within China about the appropriateness of the war, but after that, the vast majority would support it
Sounds like a big bluff from Japan they aren't going to help the ROC. The Japanese have nothing to gain from joining the ROC. Look at Ukraine? No helped them out besides aid most of Europe will do nothing if Russia attacks another European nation. The most surprising and shocking part is the British, French, Germans, and USA did noting for Ukraine besides again aid. They allowed Russia to attack her when they were trained to fight Russia during it's old Soviet Union days. Plus Russia would also join China's side to retake Diayu and Kuril islands back from Japan.
On advantage not brought up here is that Taiwan has spend decades attending to their defense needs with a singular threat in mind unlike Ukraine. They are also more familiar with western tech which would make them better able to take on new systems.
nah. if you read anything on the taiwan military at all, it all indicates that their military, if anything, is less on less focused on an actual viable defence and instead spends on things are would be useless in war. things like the abrams tank, which is fuel hungry on an island facing blockade in war, and totally exposed when the enemy has air dominance. their navy even bought a LDP, like where do they think they will be amphibiously invading with that one ship against china?
@@mxn1948 while we may disagree with strategy and specific weapons acquisitions they are still only thinking in terms taking on China where as China must think about India, Russia and Taiwan complete with likely foreign intervention. With regards to the LPD I agree there would be better things to buy with limited funds but I think they are looking at defending/retaking some small islands they currently possess between them and China. As for Abrams they really don’t have much other choice as they tanks they have were out dated 30 years ago and the US is likely the only option for a supplier. Unless you have another idea where they might replace there Patton variants.
Sad to say taiwan is currently spending their defense budget is wrong platforms. They should have invest more on the navy and airforce. Taiwan can boost its navy by building numerous midget submarines, unmanned submersible vehicles, sea mines and continue boosting its anti-ship and anti-air missiles system.
@@nieljosephpalca7849 I tend to mostly agree in terms of LPD vs other stuff. Fighters, anti-air and ship missiles, subs, and surface combatants that will carry missile are mostly what they need. But they do need to attend to their ground forces and their tanks are in serious need of an upgrade. Cultural factors may prohibit this also but realistically if they really wanted it to not be worth it to invade for China they might want to look at making their gun policy closer to Switzerland ( being the US on guns would be too much a leap). That would make that island a total porcupine.
You are forgetting two important factors: 1: Japan has already said it would fight for Taiwan if it's invaded. They know China would take Okinawa right after Taiwan is finished. 2: India as a country can't survive if China damns the source of the Ganges and Brahmaputra, and China also claims large chunks of India as their own. There is a good chance India might seize that once in a lifetime opportunity and go into Tibet while China's military is being spent fighting in Taiwan. India knows Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh would be next, and they would also know that China could never hope to win a war on two fronts. That, and the local population of Tibet wouldn't exactly be willing to fight to the death to defend China. Hell, half the population would probably actively help Indian forces.
@@MirFaizan12 you are a slave to pentagon and IMF, dont punch beyond your weight, pakistan is already facing 2 front war, TTP is killing your soldiers and police on a daily basis.
I am for Taiwan's independence. But seriously, Taiwan has to prepare to fight its own battle with all its resources. I don't see why Taiwan hasn't been secretly stockpiling needed war supplies & building underground facilities etc for many years since they have known for decades of the CCP invasion plan for Taiwan. The 70 year question has been not IF but WHEN. They have a decent GNP. And they have also blindly contributed to the economic rise of CCP China which enabled its military rise as well. If Taiwan hasn't been doing the former measures than it will be their own fault for being taken over by the CCP. I doubt many nations including the US will shed their sons' blood to defend Taiwanese sovereignty since Taiwan has been so blind & neglectful. Learn the since 2014 Ukrainian lesson, Taiwan, people back up someone who prepares & fights back against the bully.
I live in Tokyo. Japan just increase defense budget by almost 50%. Japan is making preparations to counter china in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. With the increase Japan will be there third highest spender when it comes to defense budgets just behind America and China. An Allied Japan and US should hopefully deter China from invading in the first place, but if they don’t they will learn why having strategic alliances is so important.
Hey, Zombie JAPS RAPING IMPERIALISTS RAPED & KILLED CHINESE KOREANS BRITS DUTCHS.....in *WWII* 25million Chinese died, directly or indirectly due to war & hunger disease, in 14 long yrs of Fighting JAPS RAPING DEMONS China taking back Taiwan Province is like USA taking back Hawaii had the Japs succeeded in grabbing Hawaii in 1942 *IT has been a CHINA INTERNAL AFFAIRS, & has Nothing to do with Rapist Monster Ultra-Militaristic Japos !* You do wake up, I pray 🙏🏻
The big tough Japanese lol. That was 80 years ago when the Japanese fought the poor countries in Asia. Japan, South Korea and the USA don’t even have the guts to invade North Korea.
The main issue is: When the war start, women and children wont be able to move to other countries, unlike in Ukraine...Weapons and basic supplies wont flow easily to Taiwan,,as in the case of Ukraine..China will find it hard to cross the strait..so millies, drones, and fighters will have to work. Taiwans energy and other infrastructures can be totally destroyed.
I am surprised that Japan isn't in the picture. If China takes over Taiwan, China can basically clutch the throat of Japan. I don't think Japan would let that happen.
As China people, we have no opposition to Japan.But if Japan dares to help the illegal regime in Taipei, then we are very willing to send some nuclear bombs to Japan, just like the United States in those days.
China would have to take Taiwan the hard way. Even Xi has to accept that the entire point of taking taiwan would be to get their microchip manufacturing fully under his thumb. Destroying those machines and equipment would put the world back years of microchip development, and probably put China back decades with ensuing sanctions. Failure to understand the near unfathomable value of those chips will render the entire invasion mute. Sure, you gain political standing and world renown, but what would be the point if within a few years, the technological gap between you and your rivals is just as bad or even worse!
It’s not about microchips, China has not just recently decided that they want Taiwan, this is long unfinished business from the Chinese civil war. The microchips are just a coincidence. China would want Taiwan even if it held no strategic value and offered nothing economically. It’s unfinished business that they would rather end.
@@testinghydra5652 If what you say is true China would be in a death match with the US and the West. The oceans would be swept clear of all Chinese shipping and non-Chinese vessels carrying Chinese imports and exports. The war would go nuclear because whichever side is losing will resort to the use of nuclear weapons in order to stave off defeat. China would not just be gambling with the existence of the CCP, but with the lives of all the Chinese people. Do you feel lucky?
I think the geography is more similar to Nazi Germany to Great Britain , during world war two. China would have a very easy time bombing Taiwan , but a amphibious assault never happened as far as I know .
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make a discord server so peopel and the patrons can give ideas for future scenarios and vids
ADS
North Korea Invasion United States Expectation
United States Invasion North Korea Reality
under flimsy pretext they invaded 6andera land ? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 you a joke
Taiwan is a free and independent country!
Do you think Taiwan would hit the 3 gorges dam?
Weird seeing a potentially world ending event being discussed by a snake puppet , in a general’s uniform, with a thick Eastern European accent
was it supposed to be a snake??
I thought he was a frog 😆
Binkov
He’s got arms…. Not a snake…
A russian accent? 👿
I believe the correct comparison that should be made is something akin to the various times in which the British Isles have been invaded, and the difficult island-hopping warfare of WWII's Pacific Theatre. It's only gotten harder to make landings as technology and industrial capacity has improved, so as I see it, it's simply a matter of whether Taiwan and allies can keep enough materiel in play to keep sinking ships and planes. Everything can be bombed and the island can be blockaded, but so long as some submarines, radar and missile systems are kept operational, no landing will be made; it's just too easy in a precision-targeting environment to wipe out big, slow transport fleets. Taiwan's own subs are a token force, but they've started upgrading recently, and there's a high degree of deniability with naval engagements that emboldens allies.
I disagree that the technology made it harder to make landings. It made it easier in cases like China which has overwhelming superiority. China will just blockade Taiwan and reduce Taiwanese defense to ashes with planes, drones, missiles and MLRS. It may take 1 month of bombing in the best case or 6 months in the worst case. In the meantime all the submarines will be hunted down. After 1-6 months pf "Shock and awe" , arial invasion will initiate followed by naval invasion encountering weak resistance
The blockade can be enforced with missiles instead of ships. China will just declare a no go zone, like they did during the last military exercises. But in reality neither Taiwan nor China will want it to go kinetic. I use to live in Taiwan. They, like all people, just want to live in peace and carry on with their business with the mainland.
The world is much more dependent, economically, on China than Russia ... but the world is also much more dependent, economically, on Taiwan than Ukraine. Taiwan's influence on modern technology cannot be understated. Letting that fall into China's hands would be an epic disaster for the rest of the world.
Taiwan's high-tech has been transferred to the United States, so you don't have to worry.
@@qiaohong14 Doesn't matter, The U.S is waiting for China to do a mistake like invading Taiwan, in ww2 America pumped battle ships and submarines every freaking few hours out of their docks.
@@itzikashemtov6045 Maybe you should learn about the shipbuilding capacity of China and the United States.
If PRC invades ROC, and USA does not intervene for such a strategically important ally, USA is probably done for as an alliance partner.
Why should any of their allies believe they will act for them if they don't for Taiwan?
Without Taiwan, we have no semiconductors, without semi conductor we lose out in potential future tech and regress technology wise
That phone that you’re using if it’s not for Taiwan u wouldn’t have a phone
@@omarionbayley9721 Without rare earth metals coming out from China. Taiwan wouldn't be able to build such phones in the first place.
@@ChrisL369 That's being corrected, starting several years ago.
@@ChrisL369 there is Africa
You didn't even mention the chip making factories in Taiwan that make over 90% of the world's most advanced chips. Those will play a big role in the war and whom supports Taiwan. The modern economy and technology would come to a halt quickly after those factories stop producing and we'd have to wait around a decade for things to get back to normal.
That is the 2nd driving reason us will protect
There are already plans in place to move the chip making equipment to Japan or destroy it in place. Either way, the CCP will NOT get their hands on it.
Ya and then main reason they would attack in the first place lol
@@legbert123 It is also a pride thing for the CCP. The Nationalists on Taiwan set a 'bad' example by defying them for so long. Others in the PRC might get the idea that they too could defy the CCP.
It may never get back to normal. Btw, china’s semiconductor technology was developing 3 times faster than most other places. Although they are one generation behind, they would most likely catch up in 3 years. The other thing that most Americans seem to forget is that about 70% of all semiconductor engineers are Asian. It will be a lopsided competition once China and Taiwan ends up on the same side. Look up the figures on the progress and standing of China among the world’s top 100 supercomputers. Scary.
A friendly update Comrade Binkov: Taiwan's President has announced that Taiwanese conscripts will train for 1 year instead of 4 months as of next year.
Taiwan would fight to the end or be put in camps and have there body sold off you do not surrender to murders and japan would also get in to the war they would have no choice they may wait until China is wreaking then there is Hong Kong it would protest along with China people It would be the end of communist party Taiwan could also land with troops and weapons on Hong Kong to free it .china would run out of oil in two months the USA could stop all oil pipe lines can be bombed you do not have to destroy the China navy just cut off the oil then sink them the subs are another problem and should be the first target let hope that the people of China will not let this happen
Put simply, Taiwan is in a far weaker position geopolitically. but in a far better position geographically. Though the best the island nation can hope for is a long siege, largely alone. The problem is that China can and will throw bodies at their enemy, because unlike Russia, they can still do that.
I do believe the Russo-Ukrainian War is the canary in the coalmine, much like Bleeding Kansas or the Spanish Civil War. American support is much more bipartisan for Taiwan. Ironically enough, a large force going in one morning would put China in the least danger in my opinion. China might do a Japan and try to sink our fleet in Okinawa, Guam, Seoul, Anchorage, Honolulu, or some combination, and Americans have plenty of reason to want the Communist regime in China utterly obliterated. Even if we don't, we have a particular ally that wants it a lot more (Japan) and they may force our hand if China doesn't.
I wouldn't say it's weaker geopolitically even. The U.S. is more vested in Taiwanese freedom.
@@Ceratisa The US primary interest is in maintaining its global superpower status. If it was just about Taiwan the US would never have dropped recognition for Taiwan!
I do think its different but the level is the same. The US wants to keep Taiwan away from China. They need to. Keeping Ukraine away from Russia is really just goodwill. But all of europe wants to stop Russias aggression so the support will continue.
@@cc0767 The US cannot prevent Taiwan being controlled by China without sacrificing itself.
I would not worry, the Republic of China i.e.taiwans subamarine fleet will stop the invasion as they cross the strait. A whole lot of chinese soldiers will perish
The TLDR version is that its harder for China to invade Taiwan compared to Russia invading Ukraine and It would be harder for Taiwan to get aid from the west than it is for Ukraine.
Not only are uncharacteristically biased in their cover of the war, but they have shown that they know absolutely nothing on military matters.
Add one fact to the unmentioned, China's economy mass is about the size of US and Russia is about Florida
@@kirovfactory its what a lot of these war mongers do not seem to understand. China is the manufacturing capital of the world. That means if it comes to a war and they change to a war economy for every tank we build they will build 100. Worse, every single tank they build will be built cheaper than ours.
I think the only thing stopping china right now is that they do not have a secure method of securing energy. That will of course change in a few years as russia builds pipelines and railway lines.
To add another point, Taiwan has been producing electronic chips that are used by the US and China for military technology and both of them are the biggest importer so any kind of invasion would be a massive loss for both sides while Ukraine just export agricultural
@@yin6287 Actually, I would doubt that the military is using the latest gen processors. China is only one gen behind Taiwan. I suspect that at their rate of improvement, they will be at parity in 3 years. By the way, top gen is usually of greater value in highest tech battery devices as well as supercomputers.
I think one of the major differences in infrastructure between Ukraine and Taiwan, the infrasctructure is what china wants. If taiwan saw invasion was imminent, they could kill their chip production machines and wipe the hard drives, china would get an island. China can't be too aggressive with missile attacks or risk damaging this capacity.
Those chip production will probably be blown up by the CIA anyway even if it is kept intact throughout the war. It’s pretty much a consensus by this point
Thing is if china can't have why should anyone else? It's about leveling the playing field and unless we stop our inherently antagonist systems it'll be hell
China think it is a civil war, not chip production.
no. the fabs arent important because they are super fragile and will not survive even the "gentlest" war. and theres nothing special about them, its the equipment that is special (think EUV), and those are not made by taiwan (made by ASML in the netherlands).
and china doesn't want taiwan for the chips. it wants it because historically its chinese (been part of china longer than the us has been a country) and history aside. strategically its very important because taking taiwan instantly breaks the US containment strategy, giving china open access to the pacific and makes japan and us bases there much more vulnerable
The infrastructure is a bonus, they want to control the territory and kick the US out of Asia
China imports 80% of is also a net importer of food. Russia, at least, is self-fucient in those. The effects of sanctions on China would be far worse than they have been on Russia
BINGO !!!
totally agree. A nation that has owes everything to trade cannot afford to make enemies.
Is that shit in your head? 😂 ask ABCD, the four major grain merchants, how to starve the Chinese people. A war with China would increase the price of commodities many times all over the world, including the US. Who can afford that? How many supporters do you think the United States can get? Even in the absence of war, America's internal conflicts are evident. Start a war with China and the United States could simply disintegrate into 50 states. At best, a USA and a USB.
You forgot one important point. The world is depended of taiwan for chips manufacture, that would incline a lot of countries to support taiwan.
Which is why Us forcefully moved Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing to Arizona. So they can let Taiwan go….
@@Commonlogicguy the plants in Arizona need years before they are fully online. And even then they have not enough capacity to come close to replace taiwanese factories.
First ask how many countries in the world have recognised taiwan as a country ? Hahaha
@@fabxr right, keep telling you that if that makes you feel better. If not for the fact that Us doesn’t feel Taiwan can be defended then why even bother moving it out in the first place? I agree with you that it may take a while but Bette late than never.
@@anakborneo7993 Because even Taiwan do not consider itself different country. It's simply never ended civil war and Taiwan government consider all mainland China their territory.
I’ve read that war games have shown that Japan’s entry into the war alongside Taiwan and the U.S. is always decisive. That seems like a scenario Binkov should consider.
Wow would of thought that adding another world power in the already two vs one conflict who work in favour of the two lol
yeah, idk why all such videos that I've seen don't mention Japan, it could be way more important in defense of Taiwan than US, cuz they probably would be more engaged due to a lot of reasons
That would give an excuse for China to target and seize the Ryukyu Islands as compensation.
Because Binkov is a delusional Russian
@@tritium1998 So they're going to stage a naval invasion of Taiwan against that country, the Japanese navy and the US Navy combined, somehow win that fight, and then have enough to keep going?
That scenario strains credulity.
The video completely ignores the role of South Korea and especially Japan, who would definitely be against any invasion and who have significant armies themselves. It also ignores the homefield advantage that defenders have, pretty much necessitating at least a double or triple force even to have any realistic chance of success. This means that even with the most conservative estimate of mobilized Taiwanese force up to at half a million, China would need at least a MILLION troops, deployed over the Strait. Planning and logistics would be an absolute nightmare.
S.korea? Really? The country that couldn't shoot down N.korean drones busy snapping up pictures of THAAD? The country with missiles that misfired and had to apologise to its own citizens after? The country whose president who couldn't even be arsed to meet Pelosi after her taiwan visit? lol
Not single mention of the US Navy and US Air Force, and Japan and South Korea and...
China pay for this?
Always plan for a worse case scenario. Second, anyone joining the war will almost certainly bring on a third world war.
@@ThePTBRULES well it's pretty certain because many countries back Taiwan and would fight for them even the u.s.
There is also the fact that Japan and many other Asian countries consider Taiwan to be a breakwater for Chinese expansion. Even if the US does not want a war, the country may get dragged into it if Japan and South Korea get involved. Japan has increased military spending and given signs that it would absolutely get involved, although it's hard to say to what extent.
Which Asian Nation Recognized Taiwan. Thus Japan Recognized Taiwan Publicly.
That will provide the best pre text for PLA to Nuke Japan. They still hold grudges for more than 25 Million Chines life's killed by Japan.
In fact many Asian Nations still waiting to return Japan a favor.
So we will support China in destroying Japan retribution for what Japan have done to our own nation.
South Korea will join Japan 😳 that will be a good pretext for NK and PLA to Nuke SK as collaborator to Japan.
Any one else?
China would just lovesss Japan to get involved....it will be pay back time loool
@@anakborneo7993 so do we... Paybacks time and please add UK into the list also.
Big difference is that China probably wants the Taiwanese economy, not just a small island that has been taken to the stone age.
When Taiwan was a Stone Age island, we were talking about liberating it.
A very thorough take on the situation. However what is left out of most reports is if China were to take Taiwan then that would give China control of 90% of the world's superconductor and semiconductor business which is not a pleasant idea for Western countries
That isn’t left out of most reports. That’s the main reason anyone gives a shit
That semiconductor equipment would be destroyed and China would have factories full of burnt and exploded equipment.
it's a neutral idea for most western countries.
it doesnt matter if the chinese in mainland china produce them, or if the chinese in the province of taiwan produce them.
we are more aligned with china than with usakistan anyway.
@@sabin97 If China makes the semi conductors they'll always be used to make nukes and missiles. China will learn it one day if it's not stupid. But the main point of them is to make smart bombs.
day 7 of asking for binkov to make: "what if modern day us military went back to 1941"(without nukes and allies)
Another idea, modern militaries of the axis powers (the entire Air Force, army, navy, etc) assisting their ww2 counterparts (the modern military has no idea of the future history but just fighting for the cause) (year can be either 1940, 1941 or 1942)
Us would conquer all non democratic nations, that simple
pls make it binkov, i will ask until the end of time
@@pabcu2507 ill accept any alt history ideas
@@Finkaisar I think the Soviets would be the hardest to deal with, mostly cause of all the Folks they would be throwing at the US, but going if the US went through Manchuria, it would be much easier.
China: “We will annex Taiwan!”
Taiwan: **laughs in US Carrier Group**
Abe said Japan will defend Taiwan. Japan has islands very close to Taiwan that the CCP also claims. Japan would build up its forces in the region as China does.
If Japan and the US get involved, Australia, UK and France will too. UK is now permanently stationing 2 ships in Japan and France has a permanent squadron of 8 ships at Noumea. They and other NATO members will also send air forces.
The problem for XJP is that Putin has forced the West to re-arm and ramp up munitions production to help Ukraine. This is the last thing China wants.
Britain and France still pretend they have a massive seaborne empire. Like in a war with China, their logistics will be stretched really thin.
And also just by supplying Ukraine the West is burning through numerous stocks of weapons and munitions that are to last years. Like who’s rearming?
Abe said so only after he has retired as prime minister.
It has been a consensus for residing prime minister to not say such things as it represents the official Japanese stance.
@@samuelefesoa7317 - Britain and France will operate as part of US forces using US, Japanese or Australian logistics. They all operate to the same NATO standards.
The West is rearming. Production of munitions and missiles is being ramped to supply Ukraine and replenish Allied stocks. Do a bit of searching.
It's the last thing last thing that XJP needs. Putin has really screwed XJP's pooch.
@@thomaszhang3101 - It's exactly the same as Biden saying he will defend Taiwan and then his office releasing a statement saying he supports strategic ambiguity.
Abe would not say such a thing without the agreement of the Japanese PM. Or being asked to, by the PM. It is a way for the Japanese to unofficially announce a policy.
@@overworlder that means Japan will not necessarily intervene, but only depend on the circumstances of the time.
That’s why it’s often said that the outcome of a war is decided before it starts: people negotiate and arrange very thing before the actual fighting begins.
Aside from some fist fights with India, has anyone in the Chinese military ever seen any action?
Have anyone seen an American soldier in a real war? And by that i do not mean killing goat herders in Afghanistan or bombing caves that cant shoot back.
China sends for some years more and more Soldiers to UN Missions, there they get also get Training & some "action".
So they, Indians, Indonesian, Nigerian, Spanish etc. Soldiers get mostly Training from German officers, because Germany often provides some for UN missions or takes the lead.
Otherwise often British, US, French.
Has a American soldier ever fought someone that isn’t a goat farmer?
@@Janoip I didn't know this, thanks.
@@mrmacias4217 Goat farmers are probably better fighters than the prc.
Any attack on Taiwan would be an opposed amphibious operation. China would have to fight a multi-layer battle before their first soldier stepped on Taiwanese soil. The phases would be gaining air and sea superiority, reducing coastal defenses, land troops, and supporting/supplying operations ashore. This would be complicated and risks stinging losses at each phase. Formosa (what Japan called Taiwan when they ran it in WW2) was bypassed by the US because it was a large island with numerous troops, and didn't want to tie up that many Allied troops before the invasion of Japan's home islands. Win or lose, it would be costly in terms of blood and treasure.
You make a lot of assumptions in this video. Read operation causeway. It’s likely that much more than 600k troops would be required. Also getting troops onto the island would be a nightmare. All this to be done by the Chinese military with hardly any real military experience.
Yeah China could never take Taiwan. The difference between China and Russia is that they are not stupid enough to try it.
Also the West wouldn't be able to sanction them into oblivion.
yeah this wasnt his best work. I mean its not like Taiwan spent 60 years putting in fortifications in mountains. Or getting US to start supplying it with weapons. We are sending them Patriot and javelins already and looks like arms sells are way up. Also I find it funny how these " analysts" act as if China's military is not incredibly corrupt. PLA is directly funded by owning corporations. You are telling me they used all that money that no one else has oversight to 100% buy weapons????? RIght. China can go get curb stomped right along with Russia. Annoying how people in the West act so weak about authoritarian regimes.
@@thryce82 loool your ignorance about china and PLA makes me laugh loool
China wouldn't ever try to invade Taiwan head on. It makes zero sense. They will soon have enough naval and air power to completely blockade the island and starve them into submission
@@ttuliorancao suggestion : u should research
1) china food security
2) belt and road
3) DF series missiles
😁😁
Taiwan is best case scenario for defender and worst case scenario for the attacker.
Taiwan has a massive island with few breach points and the backing of the best military in the world.
China has to pull off the largest amphibious invasion in history against an island with completely inexperienced forces. Who also will have to fight the USA.
The odds are quite clear.
The PLA doesn't have to set a single foot on the island, btw.
@@mirror452 they absolutely do. Boots take ground. Boots hold it. Only way a bombing campaign works is if the USA doesn’t come to help.
Then again As we’ve seen also bombing campaigns make fervent enemies not submissive servants. Just ask America in all our wars where we did massive bombing campaigns that just made our enemies multiply.
Do not forget the weather. Beach landings are limited to short periods of time.
@@Legalizeasbestos The island is easily blockaded and chinese A2AD keeps the US away. If Beijing wanted to, they could just starve the island.
@@mirror452 "The PLA doesn't have to set a single foot on the island, btw."
They're going to have to in order to complete reintegration of it, and even if theoretically all organized political and military resistance capitulated before then there is still the serious prospect of DISorganized political and military resistance. This is one reason why the 228 Incident is probably the most iconic part of Taiwanese History, since it showed similar problems. Issue is, it was against the KMT government with functionally unlimited support from the US, and it still was a massive problem to deal with.
"The island is easily blockaded"
Hahahah No.
Like seriously, study blockade plans for things like Mindanao and Singapore. They are BEARS and while the advent of technology would mean a given platform will generally have wider operational and attack ranges, the lack of functional heavy support bases for the PRC Southeast of Taiwan will be a pita.
" and chinese A2AD keeps the US away."
Which raises the prospect of the US and any other allies willing to come along massing forces together into 1-5 task forces in order to force through the A2AD, which they would be capable of doing (and the CCP has admitted this) at present.
"If Beijing wanted to, they could just starve the island."
At which point they take possession of a starved out, angry populace. With Guns. And military training.
Do you see how this could be a problem?
There's a reason why the Qing never fully subjugated Taiwan, and why it took the KMT years even with unlimited US Aerial and Naval logistics support to do so.
The US government asked TSMC move its advance production out of Taiwan to the US, if the TSMC move out of Taiwan, the last safeguard against Chinese mainland is gone.
USA already done this in California.old news bro.USA already abandon Taiwan
According to the U.S. Taiwan relations act "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability". If those services require the American military then they must be provided by law. There is no ambiguity there.
Hahaha US favourite playbook...a proxy war...let Taiwanese be another cannon fodder just like Ukrainians
Go fight bro...we will support you with all the weapons you need just don't get killed eh hahaha
Differences:
1. Taiwan's status is ambiguous at best while Ukraine is internationally recognized as a sovereign nation.
2. The island is 1/16th the size of Ukraine.
3. War over Taiwan will primarily be a naval and air campaign.
4. Outcome is entirely dependent on direct foreign intervention (US and Japan).
If the war over Taiwan remains primarily a naval and air campaign, then China loses. The only way to shut down Taiwan’s truck mounted anti ship missiles is by occupying the entire country. Those missiles have range out to Korea or Vietnam- all maritime trade in and out of China will be shut down until Taiwan has been fully occupied by the PLA. A China without maritime trade will suffer complete economic collapse once its strategic petroleum reserve runs out.
If China cannot quickly turn the contest into a ground war on Taiwan’s soil, China will lose. Catastrophically.
China’s strategic petroleum reserve is estimated to be about three weeks worth of normal usage. With strict rationing, China might be able to sustain an invasion attempt for maybe two months. If China cannot get boots on the ground across the entirety of Taiwan in that period of time, then it is game over for China.
And even if China accomplishes that conquest, China likely still loses. Getting PLA boots on the ground across all of Taiwan is just one step towards restoring China’s critical maritime trade lifelines. If China has attacked, say, US or Japanese facilities, China will have to defeat those countries along every inch of those critical maritime trade lifelines. And once that is done, then there is the work of getting the inevitable sanctions lifted.
My biggest fear is that the Chinese don’t understand the scale of what they need to do to win and don’t understand the scale of what the consequences will be if they lose. I have connections to people on both sides of the Strait. If the PRC launches an invasion, the results will likely be horrific for all of them, no matter which side of the Strait they call home.
@@yopyop3241 "War over Taiwan will primarily be a naval and air campaign." implies whoever controls the air and sea would win the land war...
@@vmerkwurdigliebe3751 Nope. Not how this works. To eliminate the threat from mobile systems (like Taiwan’s truck-mounted anti-ship missiles), China needs to occupy the entire island. That is going to require huge numbers of boots on the ground, rooting defenders out foxhole by foxhole. The ground war will be an absolutely enormous campaign, and winning in the air or on the water does not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a victory on terra firma, given the time constraint that China will be operating under.
@@yopyop3241 Taiwanese military doctrine is based on holding out for two weeks on a hope and a prayer that Japan and USA intervenes. You severely underestimating China.
@@Yahushaphat1 Meh. Doctrine is nice, but what matters are capabilities. Taiwan’s capabilities are as I laid out.
Closed, authoritarian countries like China have a strong tendency to underestimate their opponents. State controlled media fills people’s heads with propaganda and fake news. The leader at the top invariably ends up purging advisors who think for themselves and might disagree with the leader’s assessment.
We are seeing this play out with Russia’s bungled invasion of Ukraine.
The greatest risk for a cross-Strait war comes from misguided overconfidence on the part of Xi and the Chinese people.
The invasion of Ukraine has turned Russia into dead man walking. An invasion of Taiwan will likely have the same outcome for China.
About the economy, the real question is, will EU, US, and UK stop importing goods from China because of this war? If many countries blockade China, many affordable goods will not flow into those countries because blockade goes both way. Will the local population of Europe and US willing to cost their standard of living for Taiwan which is not diplomatically recognized?
That's exactly why half of Europe is on the streets due to exponential inflation due to ban on cheap Russian energy exports.
@@muhammadshehreyarkhan1851 Nobody in Europe is on the streets because of that, but nice try.
The manufacturing would just go back to Europe and the US and expand into Africa and South America, robotics and AI is changing manufacturing at a great pace.
It would be the end of family Dollar, and Dollar general and cheap imported Chinese products that we are so dependent on how much of Walmarts goods come from China...
Sir we have enough food we can’t fucking food we have the best fucking rice the best fucking cabbage the best fucking duck and why do you think Japan wants us?Partly because they want our food
Because the actual US military would intervene rather than just sprinkling them with some random weapons.
If you're trying to start a war between nuclear superpowers go ahead send your military
@@start2957 ok derp derp let's just let anyone with nukes do whatever they want derp derp
@@flossordie2256 Isnt that what russia is doing with ukraine now princess? Yet US is nowhere to be found physically 👀
@@flossordie2256 yes you can't do much about it but sanctions that's the reality of the world
@@accountantthe3394 yeah because Ukraine doesn't produce 50% of the world's semiconductors
Y’all are forgetting a few things: 1) there only a couple times of year the weather allows for an invasion, 2) China has to take control of Taiwan in that window or their troops will more or less cut off.
yup, all these youtube war planners always seem to forget the weather, weather will play a major role in the taiwan conflict specially strong typhoons are becoming more frequent in the region
@@emmanuelpacampara2096 they also forget the areas that China can actually land on. I remember there were like only 3 beaches actually fit for invasion.
@@belluh-1huey102 Also, they cannot destroy those ports...as it's the only place they can actually land as the rest isn't good and let remind them that they had a minor window for invasion as the rest is either fog, storms or typhoons. In fact, Taiwan is already prepare the idea that their airfield are going to destroy and in fact design their highways to allow them to be used as runways.
@@royalhistorian5109 btw, Japanese rat tactics
yeah Im pretty surprised this wasnt talked about, though I guess Binkov simply isnt that well educated on the topic yet and thus focussed more on numbers and politics.
Ukraine up untill a couple of years ago was a country which didnt know what it wanted to be after the SU fell. Taiwan has armed and prepared for communist China since day 1.
Also that one Taiwan tv show be like: "Mainland can't afford Tea eggs". I mean... if that's not fake news I don't know what is XD
Where the hell were those Chinese conscript numbers pulled out of? They have so many volunteers that they were complaining about the reduction in personnel numbers.
Total soldier count means little if you are not attacking via land border or defending. Ultimately it comes down to how many planes and boats they have, along with how many troops can you realistically move via them.
Looking at the wars of the 21st century, something I’ve noticed, and this opinion is worth what you pay for, the worlds reaction to wars are based on how disruptive the war is to the status quo of economics, moral protests always happen, but war in Georgia didn’t see the response war in ukraine did 2022, and war in ukraine 2014 didn’t see as much as 2022, invasion of Taiwan would annihilate the economic status quo of Taiwan (duh), China (duh), Japan, RoK, Australia, and USA just to begin the top boys
Ron
All Ukraine has to offer is bread. While Taiwan has computer chips and gives China more sea territorial projection.
@@useritiswhatitis4655 that bread matters a lot to the people who mainly imported from Ukraine since it’s cheaper than say US Agricultural products, hence the UN missions to open the Black Sea ports of Ukraine (what’s left of them), but yeah, the disruption of Taiwan’s exports would be more severe on the global economy
An invasion of Taiwan would be the cursed love child of D-Day and the Vietnam War.
The video simply makes too many assumptions.
A lot of China's neighbours view them as either untrustworthy or potential enemies. Not only Japan and South Korea, but Vietnam and India too. What this means is that the forces they can use against Taiwan will be a lot smaller than listed here. Paranoid governments (like the CCP) will never leave most of their border unprotected. China is not likely to use more than 600 planes. And they will still need to leave at least 800,000 troops behind to protect their LONG borders.
Also, a Taiwan invasion will require all Chinese naval forces to be used near Taiwan All. So, China would not be able to stop an American lead blockade of China itself. A Japanese/American task force will close access to the Pacific. An American/Australian/Singaporean task force can close access to the Indian ocean (and it is likely that the Indian Navy will help too). All maritime trade to and from China will cease very quicky. And there is nothing China will be able to do. Their navy still lacks deep blue capabilities. This means 90% of the petrol that China needs will stop coming, it also means a lot of the food China needs will stop coming too.
A potential war with China will also not affect the West the same way that Ukraine affected it. Basically, energy will not be an issue. Russia might say "we will not sell you oil/gas" to the West.. But, considering the West is no longer buying Russian power.. it will mean nothing.
All the other oil/gas producers will have two options. Lose billions of dollars by NOT selling the energy that will be blockaded from China, or to sell the oil to other parts of the world.. Honestly, a war on China will probably LOWER the cost of energy for the rest of the world.
So , China would more interested in getting Russian oil fields than Taiwan. And no one would blame if CCP invade and attacks Rusia
now.
In terms of the performance of the United States in Ukraine, you actually think that the Americans will personally participate in the war in Taiwan.
也许美国政府更符合偏执狂的特性
@@力魏-t4b Yes I'd join up and many others. Itching for a war that's better than Afghanistan. USA might be able to muster 2 million willing recruits in a few months.
@@genericscout5408 Good luck with that, bring your friends too. More the merrier...more body bags to fill :)
The US and India would cut off shipping to China through the Indian ocean and the US wouldn't allow anything to come across the Pacific, cutting off the majority of their energy imports and food imports. The US Navy never has to come into direct conflict to devastate the Chinese.
🤡lmao bro acting china is like the ones his dad fought
@@didyoumissedmegobareatersk2204 They are. The vast majority of their ships are incapable of sailing more than a 1000 miles from their shores and they are the country most dependent in the world on international shipping. They have some major weaknesses that are easy to exploit.
@@sammarchant2703 Sammy, it ain't 2010, get a grip 🫢
@@J_X999 if you have anything intelligent to say on the matter say it. Are Chinese ships more capable than what I am saying? If so what evidence can you provide? What reference? Vague statements or insults indicate you have nothing intelligent to say on the subject.
@@sammarchant2703 If I genuinely have to explain what you've got wrong, then you are too far gone.
One thing i learnt from Binkov and the war in Ukraine is that armchair analysts are really super shit at predicting what could happen in a war. Binkov was saying that Russia could defeat the european union because it had so many tanks. They can’t even take out Ukraine.
There is no reason to believe things would be different with Taiwan. We have no idea wha twould happen, no idea how the chinese army, which has not been at war for many decades would perform and do on and so forth.
European Union is defeated economically, under record all times high since WW2 hyperinflation and being deindustrialized and quickly becoming a third world. Hows that not a defeat ? Without a single tank crossing the border of EU
@@Goorood lol have you ever been to western europe? “Becoming the third world” wtf are you talking about. Get out of here rofl
@@IZn0g0uDatAll Unfortunately yes, quite often actually. A filthy shithole with rubbish littered all over the place, without parking spaces and looking more like africa-middle east that "europe" . Hows that not a shithole ? lol
Basically imagine Operation Sea Lion. Except the "sea" separating the island from the mainland is MUCH bigger. Plus one side has the world's biggest navy on its side and any effort to take the island would leave the mainland vulnerable in other areas by neighbors that either hate, dislike or just don't care about the mainland nation. IF the island is taken, it'd be a pyrrhic victory and the mainland would have to both fund and supply the rebuilding effort. And after all that, their political clout would be at the bare minimum half spent.
The biggest problem for China is a failed Taiwanese invasion may invite a military coup.
I suspect they would be worried about this from the start and so hinder the military that they become ineffective - e.g. requiring ccp to be in the loop for any military decisions.
Basically you'd still be crying about China despite coping that it's losing money and political clout if it wins.
@@MrEddieLomax It's more likely that you'd start civil wars in America if you saw the final thing you have faith in to be losing.
Here's the trump-card: China is wholly-dependent upon seaborne commerce to sustain itself. There are no overland supply-routes that can maintain the Chinese economy.
If China attacked Taiwan, the United States and, I suspect, the entirety of the Far-East would immediately declare a blockade of China. That would be enforced by the combined naval powers of all of the allied nations.
Additionally, China's navy, while very powerful on paper, has weaknesses that history has shown to be an Achilles Heel.
The leaders in the CCP know all of this, which is why they won't pull the trigger on a Taiwan invasion......... Unless their regime is in danger of collapse, in which case, all bet are off (Including the use of nuclear weapons on Taiwan, as well as Guam, Okinawa and other theater-base assets)
China is the world's factory. You see Russia with the embargo on it is still able to find buyers and circumvent sanctions. Now, this time, unlike with Russia, the American economy is reliant on China too. Its not as simple as embargoing China... it would take years and decades to return manufacturing to the US in full force. America cannot just "cut off" China unless it wants to lose access to a huge proportion of its finished textile goods, smartphones, semiconductors, plastics, etc. etc. Embargoing China would give it a full unbridled ability to trade with other sanctioned states, even if China was weakened, its embargoing would be a boon for other sanctioned countries (Iran, Russia, Syria, NK, Afghanistan, etc.) as well as all Eurasia countries more willing to buy cheaper from China than anger USA (what are we gonna do, sanction everyone?) like India and Africa. All of China's manufacturing will be in place and the West will be depleted of it. Western economies would literally fall apart too...
Well, it's kinda impossible to blockade China as they're paramount for global economy. How would this blockade be sustained? Sinking all ships trying to come across? How would the countries of origin react to their commercial fleet being sunk by foreign powers?
Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Angola, Argentina, Venezuela and so on wouldn't survive without Chinese imports of their natural resources. They wouldn't accept at all this kind of blockage to their exports. Hell, how would the US' and Europe's economy survive? They can't even produce customers goods let alone enough steel for keep their nations going without China.
This scenario of yours just wouldn't work out at all like you're supposing.
You’re probably forgetting about Pakistan and the Gwadar port
Exactly why they started belt and road, once all infrastructure is in place to sustain china with more land options, then an invasion to retake the islands will take place im sure
@@dextermorgan750 Nope. They get shut-down as well. Any "allies" of China will know that there is a price to be paid for backing that regime.
Fanboys here have no clue of how extremely difficult it is to invade an fortified island country. Crossing the sea transporting heavy armored vehicles and millions of troops while anti ship missiles firing your direction, the beach being bombarded while trying to land, maintaining the supply line across the strait. And if the war doesn't end within a year typhoon season. Taiwan could call up 1.6 million troops. 1:3 rule states that an invasion force will need 4.8 million troops to be successful, this is not even considering an amphibious type invasion. Does China even have enough transportation ships? How many times do they have to go back and forth while being bombarded at the beach?
The last time China tried invading another nation(Vietnam) at their border without a sea to cross, they got kicked out in 4 weeks and loss 26,000 troops in a single month. What more trying to cross the Taiwan Strait? Logistic nightmare.
Side note: (for reference, the US loss 241 troops per month on average in the Vietnam war). Now compare that to China's 26,000 troops loses in a month
Vietnam didnt push china out, it is china initiative to withdraw troops , it is like russia voluntarily withdraw from kiev and kherson not being push out by ukraine, deng xiaoping before war stated that he will not involve in a long war in consideration soviet will intervene and make problems complicated for china, if it is vietnam pushing china out, then how comes china still hold a territory gain over vietnam even after the war ceased, those gain territory were given back to vietnam later. In less than 2 weeks, china reach langson most strategic important cities highground and cease their operation due to fear of soviet intervention
Another reason why Moscow did not intervene was because Beijing had promised both Moscow and Washington that the invasion was only a limited war, and that Chinese forces would withdraw after a short incursion. After moderation by the U.S., Moscow decided to adopt a "wait and see" approach to see if Beijing would actually limit their offense.
Sino vietnam war was a limited war and not a full blown war, china reach the objective langson cities and withdraw, vietnam didnt push china out as they claimed
The major casualties that should be for US troops actually transferred to South Vietnamese soldiers. People often forgot US troops didnt fight alone, they had South Vietnamese soldiers to withstand the casualties. While South Vietnamese soldiers had casualties of more than hundred thousand, exceed far more than US.
The Chinese held 1,636 Vietnamese prisoners and the Vietnamese held 238 Chinese prisoners. They were exchanged in may-june
Casualties number can be lied, but pow number cant, vietnam is simply using chinese voluntariy withdrawal as their propaganda
On 6 March, China declared that the gate to Hanoi was open and that their punitive mission had been achieved. During the withdrawal, the PLA used a scorched-earth policy, destroying local infrastructure and looting useful equipment and resources (including livestock), this severely weakened the economy of Vietnam's northernmost provinces.
You completely left out Japan who's changed their defense policy around this and will intervene as they have said formally
Japan trade much more with china than with the us and taiwan...combined
@@KevinAssalin I'm not sure if that's true or not off the top of my head but assuming it is true it's still irrelevant Japan has changed their defense policy considers the sovereignty of the island integral to their defense. Have said they will send planes and ships
@@nonebusiness2023 lol Japan would get glassified
@@sleepyjoe4529first only if China uses nukes . And then there nuked . It's not happening with nukes.
Second there are around 83 either fully controlled by the us or jointly controlled military, naval, and air bases in Japan if Japan is attacked like that usa are forced to get involved
@@nonebusiness2023 nuke is not needed to destroy Japan.
Actually China did not use Conscripts, they have their own version of US Army National Guard called "Militia of China" which comprised of individuals who hold a civilian job full-time while serving part-time as a reserve units.
You missed the point. Chinese PLA is worse than Russian conscripts. Dig little deeper if you want to know why.
@@GL-tp5hg Or you could furnish us with evidence of your claims but you can't.
An interesting point raised in another video was the possible effect of China's one child policy. The social upheaval of families losing their only offspring and heir could well be critical, even if it does reduce population pressure and helps balance China's male/female ratio.
A lot of warfare is now unmanned, China isn't stupid enough to just send millions of young men to their deaths on the shores of Taiwan. Drones and missiles would be much more suited.
@@J_X999 At some point boots and blood will have to go in, unless they decided to try seige tactics.
@@petesheppard1709 Absolutely, however comparing it to D DAY is laughable considering modern warfare has come so incredibly far
@@J_X999 True. Hopefully, smart will prevail.
@@J_X999 the question that comes up then is if China has enough reconnaissance resources to perform proper BDA on thousands of missile and drone strikes against Taiwan and if China has enough munitions stockpile to keep Taiwanese defenses down until they move men onto the island.
To better understand the China-Taiwan situation, you have to know that China and Taiwan is like North Korea and South Korea. Two governemnts two countries but actually they both want to be united, except none of the governments want to be subdue to the other government.
Who in their right mind would want to be united under communism
It has change now. We just want to be Taiwan, and we have no interest to be united with those load of shits
Taiwan gave up retaking China around 80's
now main voice of unite are from mainland China
I agree with most of the things mentioned in this video.
However, here is some point that I would like to add.
1) While the shear number of CCP military is huge, Taiwan do have counter measures, like different medium range anti ships and land missiles are more capable then you implied. These abilities with US intelligence, it is much harder for PLA to safely assemble troops, planes and ship, and move them across the sea then video stated I afraid.
2) For air dominance, I think you have kind of overstated PLAAF abilities too. I do agree Taiwanese AF will have a hard time in defending their air space, but it won't be a landslide like the 1500 to 300 number you mentioned, and it wouldn't be as bad as Ukraine. J10 is not made for invading purpose, PLAAF will likely using J11, J16, Su30mkk, Su35 for their attack, with some limited use of J20(depending on when the conflict happens. I do think PLA unlike Russia, would make use of its 5th gen aircraft). Total counts of these aircraft is more in the 500-600 range(only part of these will be used in Taiwan), and only the 5th gen J20 would be a real threat to Taiwanese AF. Taiwan also have counter measures that can threaten PLAAF base.
3) Both China and Taiwan have difficult geo political problem.
China is being surrounded by enemies. India, South China Sea, will have potential conflicts once war with Taiwan broke out.
Taiwan, as you said, is not recognised as a country by UN, and it may resulted in fewer countries in the world willing to stand for Taiwan, especially China do have a lot of influence in World economy. However, Taiwan is an important participant in world economies and industry too, and have great tactical value to US and its allies.
4) Yes supplying Taiwan if war broke out would be hard. However, blockade of Taiwan will be much harder as it required insane resources for air and sea control arround Taiwan, and Taiwan do have counter measures as I mentioned. Also, such blockade will introduce new problem to CCP too. If US or Japan ship do try to go through, do CCP really want to start a war with them by shooting down the ship?
5) Ukrainian Force is much more experienced Russian forces in the start of the war. A good number of the troops has experience fighting in the Donbas war. And Ukrainian is more mentally prepare for the war, due to previous conflict experience.
Both Taiwanese and PLA troops has no real war experience, and training quality of both seems to be not as great. But I afraid we do have no idea how bad it will affect us when the war started, our mental will be more easily to break down.
No matter what happen, once this war started, the world, (and sadly my life) will definitely be changed forever. FUCK ALL WARS.
US：our wars to Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Cuba, Lebanon are just and legitimacy.
There are a group of Taiwanese, about 20%, advocating they should negotiable with China to avoid war. But they are labeled as “CCP's fellow”
@@boyeewoods China: our mass exterminations of ethnic groups are just and legitimate
@@boyeewoods how does this have anything to do with China invading Taiwan?
Well said, especially what you said at the end of the comment 👍👍
You forgot Japan. They have stated they would defend Taiwan, and their Navy is pretty powerful, arguably one of the most powerful in the world.
Yes, but on its own its not enough to deal with China near Taiwan, to do some serious damage to the Chinese fleet so far away from friendly ports they'd need powers with Nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers like the US, UK and France to intervene, as Japan's naval doctrine is defensive, even though their fleet is massive
@@ravenmusic6392 Japan is not far away from China and Taiwan. They don’t need Nuclear Submarine. And they can support the American Carrier Groups
They have to, since a chinese Taiwan would threaten Japans security very much. Others say China would need to invade Okinawa to secure the sea around Taiwan.
@@SaviOr747 Invade the island that the US Marine Base is on?
The memes write themselves.
We can't forget the Japanese wildcard in case of an Invasion of Taiwan. And if the US did get into a shooting war South Korea would be involved considering US assets there. Which in turn could get North Korea involved by proxy
They're not afraid of north Korea
@Joshua Dron I do not think anyone is afraid of North Korea but it would open up another front tying up valuable assets
You have to take Japan into account, who has a huge national interest in how such a war would play out
Sending aid ( and using there satellites and recon plane and drones ) that’s it
@@mbtenjoyer9487 TW is only about 100km from Japan's Sakishima Islands, which in turn links it closely to other islands all the way to mainland Japan.
Japan has a very big vested interest in that region, knowing well that the capture of Taiwan would mean her own encirclement in the future to come.
So while I'm not going to predict what they might or might not do, sitting back and just chill might not be high on their agenda, in the outbreak of hostilities.
Invading by sea is the most difficult of military maneuvers. I seriously doubt that any major power could pull it off against determined, well planned defenses. It doesn't take many surviving defense systems to upset an amphibious invasion.
There had not been a major amphibious operation on the scale needed to take Taiwan since at least the Korean war. Nobody really knows if modern technology makes it easier or harder.
Pretty much all of the China vs Taiwan videos I see gloss over or completely ignore that fact. They just compare the numbers and act almost as if they share a land border.
Arguably, despite the enormous build-up of forces, the only reason the invasion of Normandy succeeded was b/c the Allies kept the Germans guessing and deceived them into believing the main landings were going to be somewhere else. China has no such luxury. There's only one area they can attack, they won't be able to hide their build-up, and Taiwan's allies will be simultaneously flooding Taiwan with MANPADS, ATGMs, anti-ship missiles, and possibly foreign volunteers. Plus, they never mention that the PLA is corrupt, poorly trained, ill-equipped, led by politicians, and has absolutely zero combat experience. Doesn't sound like a winning combination to me.
@@jamesbarca7229 there is always a "corrupt milutary offcial" card. If you are worried about the water between china and taiwan then the water between US and taiwan. Maybe there is difficulty but it is so much harder fir US to transport supply to taiwan. China only needs to blockaed taiwan and that is it. No need for ground forces
@@515coldfire I've said many times that they may try to blockade Taiwan, which is a more realistic option imo, but then they will in turn be essentially blockaded themselves (sanctions, embargoes, if not flat-out intercepting ships at sea). They will have their oil and coal supplies cut off etc. along with all the ramifications (militarily, economically, and societally) that come along with it. At that point, all bets are off. I don't know how that one plays out, but it's certainly not as easy as just blockading Taiwan and waiting for them to surrender. If it were, they would have already done it.
@@jamesbarca7229 blockading china is possible but that means the whole world will suffer. Imagine the whole world stop trading that is insane. Imagine oil price goes up to 200 per barrel. The society with higher living standard will collapse over night. Blockade will still be a better option for china and bombing the country from mainland is an option.
The US could not afford to lose Taiwan due to semiconductor production.
Incorrectly saying that the US could afford to lose it is how miscalculations happen. The US *WILL* defend Taiwan.
The biggest difference is that Taiwan actually has defence agreements with the US and other NATO members, whereas Ukraine did not.
Nope only Japan and US have a defence agreement .
.taiwan does not
@@serpenzaisasoblaowhy86ishi29 Kuwait did not have a defense agreement either, but it still didn't go will for Iraq. (Why the hate for Serpenza and Laowhy. They actually like China. They just hate that the CCP is killing its own people, minorities in china like Uyghurs, attacking boarder countries like India and Taiwan all while suppressing their own people who cannot even use VPNs as China fears the people knowing their lack of freedom.)
@@firerock9320 loool easy right because that 2 losers is spreading misinformation...their main goal is to ignorant people like yourself who have never visited China before and you easily taken in their lies...so eg if I take a few short clips and show you how dirty is india ... isit 100% true?
If you have followed some of their followers you will know initially when serpentA earlier videos were very objective...but after getting kicked out china he turn to make anti china video which gets him more subs...seem to be anti china can make him more money...watch those expats who now still are living in china now like Daniel dumbrill...gweilo70...Jerry goode etc...what they say about that 2 guys
That is exactly right!
@@anakborneo8276 I'm glad I was able to get you another $0.50 from the CCP for your post
So you think United States is going to sit there and watch this happen?
they will not do anything but shout there because Taiwan is just a chess piece and doesn't worth to fight with China
The US is protecting only one thing, TSMC semi conductors. They will not directly send troops, they will along with Japan, shoot down planes, destroy naval forces for Taiwan from the Japan Island Chains, so there will be a lot of missiles flying around with planes. China will eventually win because they have the best naval force and the numbers as well as supersonic missiles arguably best in the world with Russia.
Sending weapons and that’s it
@@奥奥利给-w6o Your sorely mistaken, if you believe that..
@@carlpeters7131 Taiwan is a key part of the first Island chain that the U.S. and Japan would want to defend to hem Red China in.. Again you know nothing about strategic planning. China is not to be allowed to break through the first island chain they are to be hemmed in by the islands with America and Japan's navies with help from Australia to use air power and subs as I have said, before. China will be out gunned and surrounded on all sides.
No DIRECT invasion just being economically strangled. With America's subs and air power combined with Japan and Australia's navies China is a dead duck!! If we can get India in as well She can block China's trade going through the Indian ocean and the straits of Malacca!!! GAME SET and MATCH!!! End of China as a major power poking its nose in the AMERICAN LAKE known as the PACIFIC OCEAN!!! As I said before GAME SET and MATCH!!! China loses!!!!
Japan is also involved in Taiwan invasion. Japan depends on sea around Taiwan for trade routes to Middle Easton.
Japan doesn't want to have their trade routes blocked so Japan surely join the conflict to protect Taiwan and their trade routes.
japan should be counted into american part, if us decides to involve,so does japan; if us not, so will japan
And China is Japan's largest trading partner.
@@archangel7052 u can pretty say that for every country in in that region. China is the biggest trading partner for North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Mongolia, and the ASEAN.
This is the best analysis of Taiwan vs. Ukraine so far. Many youtuber only mention how the strait makes it harder to conduct an amphibious landing, and neglect how the strait also makes foreign support harder to reach.
Reuters wrote an in depth article about the scenarios of a conflict between China and Taiwan.
It is called T-Day: The Battle for Taiwan
The way Ukraine is keeping Russian ships at bay with relatively small means is a strong indicator over how dangerous it would be, they even attacked smaller Russian boats closer to shore with ATGMs multiple times. The Taiwan Strait and its beaches could turn into a Chinese ship graveyard.
See Iwo Jima and Okinawa.
@@rogersmith7396 Both of those battle occured before 100km+ anti-ship missiles were a thing.
Falklands 1982 is a better example, and Argentina caused us (UK) a lot of hassle with very few missiles.
1- China isn't Russia
2- China has the biggest economy in the world by adjusted PPP terms not the Sixth
3- China's military is shown to be less corrupt than Russia
4- This isn't the Black sea
5- China has the second-best-funded military in the world
6- The USA Ministry of Defense has stated multiple times that China has full control of the first island chain with its massive ballistic missile network and giant navy on the Chinese coast around taiwan and by their words going past Taiwan would be an American Ship Graveyard
@@MrScruffels The Chinese aren't weak, but their sub fleet is no match for the UK fleet let alone the US fleet.
@@MrEddieLomax The UK wouldnt go and transfer thier navy to go fight China and China has a bigger but less capable Sub fleet than America it holds 2nd place in the regard not taking anything else into account
There is one other country will definitely defend Taiwan and that is Japan. The chance for Japan to get involved is much higher than the US.
Japan is weak tho, it only has its basic defense force but that's about it.
Sadly Japan can possibly be one shotted from china's first strike
US is the only one country in the World which still has the capacity to defeat China,
and Japan, not at all, if Japan get involved, they may repeated the same fate of Mongol Empire,
the Mongol has first defeated and conquered the Han Chinese, but once the Chinese counter-attacked, the North Yuan capital get raided, Dzungur Empire get eliminated and Inner Mongolia becomes Chinese,
Japan want to "defend" Taiwan, but they risk to lose Okinawa,
We very much hope that Japan will participate
Most important thing: China imports most of its food and energy, all going by sea routes. Stopping china will be even easier than Russia.
And India wants a piece of the cake
Yeah, China isn't really in a position to fight a global war. They don't have the force projection that the US has to protect trade, shipping, and commerce generally.
They have to import food and they're currently experiencing a water crisis.
Their military also has zero experience.
That don't ture, China struggled heacily with food security for years. At least, the starvation don't occupy when you do some research online(China is one of the biggest wheat and grain producers in the world) And over 80% of energy consumption from coal and hydro (that can produce by themselves), the only weakness is oil or gasoline, but china is moving fast to EV and now account for more than half of EV producing in the world. After two decades, China will significantly reduce demands to oil and energy dependency
Just import from Russia, food is not quantum physics.
@@missk1697 Actually it is. You can't just blink into existence new crops.
The only point missing is the weather. Taiwan really only has two 2 month invasion windows one in spring and one in fall. Any other time of the year China would not be able to conduct large landing on Taiwan or resupply a large military force there. That is a large reason Taiwan does not need as large of an ammo reserves. The war will be decided in roughly 3 months, either China captures a deep water port and brings overwhelming numbers or they fail to capture a deep water port and resupply becomes nearly impossible.
Or nuke Taiwan once all the semiconductor factories moved out by themselves
According to your propaganda, Taiwan can only get its imports by air and sea for 2 months of the year this whole time.
I think a naval blockade of the island is many times more likely than an amphibious invasion.
At the very least I’m pleased to see a military analysis that doesn’t assume China’s opening move is ferrying their entire army across the strait without support.
You forgot a few things. Taiwan produces most of the worlds most advanced microchips. The "west" needs those as they are more advanced than what China can make. Japan has said they would get involved on Taiwans side. The Philippines, Australia, and the UK have also indicated they would support Taiwan.
Kiss it goodbye. Its a capitalist clusterfuck. At least I have my old non computer cars. See ya at the drive in.
You forgot China is also involved with border clashes with India.... And it got more serious these recent months... So Taiwan won't be invaded
Direct war with china will trigger ww3 if its so simple US and nato would have fought Russia directly
@@anakborneo8276 nope no ww3
Heres to hoping the PLA is as competent as the PLA during the Sino-Viet war.
Taiwan is surrounded by seas compared to Ukraine. Taiwan also has the advantage because they can just boost their armed forces especially the Navy and Airforce by acquiring/building major platforms such as numerous midget submarines, unmanned submersible vehicles,truck based anti-ship missiles, sea mines, layer surface-to-air missiles system, kamikaze drones. Furthermore, taiwan can boost its army with major platforms such as mobile artilleries, APCs, IFVs, ATGMs, MANPADs. But above all, coordination and logistics are the main key role if conflict will arise between Taiwan and China
Everyone likes, midgets.
Taiwan has some pretty impressive kamikaze drones, let's hope their asymmetrical capabilities will give them a chance. None of us expected Ukraine to perform this well either
@@olegbobrovskiy3244 I did.
@@Kevin-mk6jo midget will result to high quantity does allowing your opponent to exert more power to destroy them. For example, if taiwan has atleast 50- midget submarines that are capable of firing atleast 2 heavyweight torpedoes. Destroying them is not easy since they are lurking at very shallow/shallow waters where the enemy's ASW will be more vulnerable to other platforms such as anti-ship missiles, kamikaze drones, and SAMs.
Taiwan has been designing and building their own anti ship missiles for the last 40 years. They have at least 1000 of them. It's almost as if they worked it out years ago
Nice analysis. The only things that can be said with certainty about war is that it is always highly destructive and unpredictable.
One thing no one seems to talk about in a potential Taiwan/China conflict is that
1. Japan has stated in no uncertain terms that they will go to war with China over Taiwan.
2. China doesn't have a stranglehold on the world economy, it's actually the opposite. China imports the vast majority of its food and oil and there are no viable routes to be able to fill in the gaps when merchant ships of all nations have zero interest in sailing into a war zone, or the strait of Malaka is very easily blockaded. Aside from rare earth minerals, much of the production that china was so amped about is moving south to Vietnam,India ect.
China has a massive stranglehold on the world economy. They export the most out of any country and make up the most imports from the us, majority of Africa and Europe. China has invested trillions in the belt and road initiative, made up of infrastructure, ports and airports. They can import food from Mongolia who has a massive surplus. They also have a massive supply of coal and oil
Yesterday is the China National Memorial Day for Nanjing Massacre Victims. Guess what China will do to Japan if it go to war with China. Don't worry, no nuclear weapon.
That is so wrong. The entire reason China has the influence they have is because they have a stranglehold on the world economy. Just because it also relies on the world does not mean the world doesn't rely on it. A China that gets sanctioned would cause world prices for everything to shoot up to quickly that it is debatable if any economy could survive. Not to mention while many industries are moving down to other countries China still holds many many industries key to the production of basically any product you can think of.
@@Henry-xu5jg
China’s economy depends entirely on the Western market at this point because Africa does not have the economic base to replace that market. Withdrawal from the China relationship began years ago, and the West can cut China off completely when it attacks Taiwan. South Korea, Japan, NATO, Vietnam and Australia will defend Taiwan. Invasion of Taiwan is absolute insanity, especially since China’s economy is already badly affected by its real estate crash and boycott of Western technology.
@@Henry-xu5jg it’s a lot easier to find someone to make stuff for you than finding someone to buy the stuff you make.
Mongolia can’t feed China. Even the entirety of American food exports -the US being by far the largest food exporter in the world-, couldn’t supply China with all the food they need in a famine.
China is very oil poor for its population size, which is why it imports so much from the Middle East. As for coal, they have a fair amount, but they’re choking to death on its smoke.
There is also a chance that China could be paper tiger too...
Bullshit, they’ve been a global power for 2k years, they’ve just had a rough 200. They’ve got something to prove.
@@jakemocci3953 there’s a difference between a global power and a superpower. Plus, when was the last time they actually had a real war their troops have no actual combat experience experience like the US does..
@@jakemocci3953 and again, what does this matter? Russia was second army before war…
@@jakemocci3953 Global Power ? Lmao
@@jakemocci3953 China has been a regional power for 2k years, they have never done stuff away from their own theater.
Honestly your predictions are flawed.
1. It’s an island and guns run on oil and power. It’s never cold in Taiwan so it isn’t required to stay warm unlike Ukraine.
2. China would suffer economically because of sanctions. They would convert some of their manufacturing capacity to war which people don’t want to support. Probably not as much as Russia but still pretty bad.
3. Blockade would hurt their economic status quo
4. I see Taiwan to be similar to Austria. Taiwan is just the beginning, Indian border disputes will be next and it won’t stop until Mao Zedongs vision is accomplished.
5. There is heavy corruption in the military and China has a history of military leaders betraying leaders and taking advantage of the chaos to get in power. How else did the CCP gain power?
How can you totally ignore the response of Vietnam, South Korea and real elephant in the room... Japan?
That’s his standard modus operandi. It is easy to overcomplicate matters.
South Korea do not intervene why would Korea help poeple who hate Korea?
Loool vietnam chancellor was the first to visit xijinping on his 3rd term recently
South Korea is totally depending on china for its imports and exports as largest trading partner
Japan ? If Japan dares to intervene don't forget china just remembered nanking recently ...china would just loves if Japan intervenes ... its pay back time hahaha
Well I got some weird responses. I'm thinking something was lost in the translation...
As Peter Zihan has pointed out, it would be relatively easy to cut off China's oil supply from the Middle east. Park a few destroyers near the Straights of Malaka, and China loses 80% of its oil. How long could they fight then?
China hypothetically could run for years with a combination of land based imports, rationing, exploiting domestic shale supplies and coal liquification.
Yes thats chinas achilles heel but western malacca/gulf blockade's success is contingent upon western govts staying the course long enough for impact to be felt. Because
1) No oil import into china means no cheap exports to rest of the world. Stock markets collapse n hyperinflation in USA.
2) China can get energy thru land route from Russia n CIS for military means n still survive for a few months.
3) China is world biggest maker of solar/renewable/nuclear power plants. So that cushions its energy needs. Because of central command economy, it can easily adjust its energy mix n survive with 70% of normal energy.
So for blockade to have any real impact it has to stay in place for years. Dont think western politicians have the stomach to lord over the social chaos 80% drop in S&P n retirement funds/pensions would cause for a year.
And if you've watch all of Zeihan's videos in this last year, you realize that China is already in the process of imploding. In fact anyone that has money invested in China has already lost it and just isn't honest enough with themselves to realize it yet. China is gone.
they get it from russia and Turkmenistan directly via land. middle east is not important
@@hughmungus2760 @Suhel Mullick
Land based imports? really guys?
Do you have any idea how many trains you have to run to transport one small tanker worth of oil?
Amphibious invasion of a heavily defended island is a much more complicated and harder task than what Russia had to deal with in Ukraine (where they litarly just drove tanks across the border)......seeing what a disaster it turned out for a ''easier invasion'' route, I really wouldnt presume China would deal better at its little adventure. Plus China's military legit has no war experience of almost any kind at all, and we have seen that ''impressed training footage'' means jack shit in real war.
The fact that it's an island is enough to make such big difference.
How long did it take for the US to colonize the Philippines island? I agree with you that china would easily take over Taiwan as the US did with the Philippines because the Philippines was an island.
@@titaniumskunkogkush4365 the Philippines are an archipelago, and I'm pretty sure it took like 3 years.
the Japanese however, took it in a couple of months.
@@titaniumskunkogkush4365*How long did it take for the US to colonize the Philippines island?*
It took THREE YEARS. The Japanese took it in 1942. The Americans took it back in 1945. Conservative estimates is that more than 420,000-500,000 were killed during the struggle (and that was with OLD and DATED military weaponry.)
*I agree with you that china would easily take over Taiwan as the US did with the Philippines because the Philippines was an island.*
Percival wasn't saying it would be easy,. He was pointing out why it would be difficult, due to it being an amphibious assault on a fortified island.
So I don't know who you are "agreeing" with here.
China could not "easily" take Taiwan for numerous reason, the biggest of all being the US.
If China could have "easily" taken Taiwan back, it would have already done so (as it has been continually saying for the last SEVENTY YEARS.)
(b)(3) of the Taiwan Relations Act. It reads, "the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;"
It won't be that easy for china Taiwan has more power than what you think and they practice all the time
@SoloWolf1000 Yes Taiwan is armed to the teeth and defending an island is a lot easier than defending a land invasion.
Only Taiwanese think that way
@@williamdavis9562 No need to fight for real. After a two-week blockade, Taiwan will run out of energy.
It's ridiculous to think that Taiwan would not be aided by the Quad. At a minimum, Japan, the US, and Australia would be involved immediately. Ships flagged by other non-beligerents would not be a valid target without a declaration of war. And legally, such a declaration would be more trouble than it's worth for China.
ummmm.. have you ever heard of NO FLY ZONE?
India is a member of the Quad and the SCO. It is bordering China in very inhospitable areas and does not want to play the role of Italy at the Isonzo, but profit by playing both sides. The remaining Quad members, as Japan is mainly a US puppet and Australia not much better off. However, Japan has a pacifist constitution, which limits its political and legal wiggle room to intervene in the conflict, while constraining its military capabilities. Australia is far away, with a very limited military capabilitiy, due to its rather small populaton and GDP. In the end, it will be mainly the US that joins the conflict.
If South Korea opts to join as well, it will immediately pay the price, with Seoul being in reach of Norh Korean artillery and North Korea being completely dependent on China for survival.
@@antyspi4466 I would be shocked if a revised Japanese constitution had not already been drafted ready to be implemented in the case of regional conflict - I'd actually bet hard currency on that. Australia has limited power projection, however if we assume 4 of 6 Collins Class are deployed around the relevant choke points (which is what they've been doing for decades) China's access to external energy inputs are over (btw AUS has the worlds 14 largest nominal GDP). If shit hits the fan and NK gets involved I would also bet hard currency that very low yield tactical nukes would be employed to neutralise their artillery.
bruh,South Korean and Japanese all invaded and kill taiwanese.friends.bruh,if south korean and japanese can be friends with taiwanese ,then mainland chinese can even more
@@yuluoxianjun lol! You really have no concept of history, do you... Japan took over Taiwan while China was busy with its warlord period at the end of the Qing Dynasty. The Qing basically abandoned it, so Japan moved in and started to develop it as a colony. The Taiwanese actually like Japan for doing that. They didn't just go in and start killing anyone. And South Korea had nothing to do with that. It was annexed by Japan by force. Meanwhile the Chinese communists had a civil war with the government that controlled Taiwan after WWII. The CCP is evil and just a corrupt mafia group, nothing more. No one can be friends with the CCP. The CCP is cancer.
Remember, around 80 percent of computer chips are made in Taiwan this alone will warrant a US intervention.
The biggest difference between the two possible conflicts..... The US has a treaty with Taiwan to intervene. It had no such treaty with Ukraine. Ukraine couldn't join the UN for that protection earlier because of 1) they didn't have secure and established borders (separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea) and 2) All current UN members would have to unanimously vote in future members (Turkey being semi-partial to Russia would of blocked that). With any Aggression showed by China towards Taiwan (In build ups in preparation of invasion) An American aircraft carrier strike group would be in range (If not 2) to defend. Also, Airbases and units in Japan would be at the ready to support. China would have to win fast (Like Russia would of had to do) to escape any sanctions it can't afford. Food, Oil and Coal are huge imports for China. It would not take long for any sanctions to have affect. Last but not least is China's population control policies. Once casualty reports start coming in and the only offspring you were allowed has perished.... the mental stability of civilian Chinese is not something to overlook. May not be something other people would think about, but a country that hasnt see a major war in generations may be ill prepared for the death toll one would bring.
You confuse what they have for a mutual defense treaty.
@@elijahgacheru360 The TRC still allows the US the ability to act. It's not the same as before with response being automatic in the MDT. But the point is still relevant to the topic of having a treaty vs not having one in regards to the ability to act.
In the United Nations system, Taiwan is China's territory, so most countries in the world will not accuse the CCP of invading (except for the closest allies of the United States), which is completely different from Ukraine, which is a legal country officially recognized by the United Nations. Any country that sends weapons to Taiwan during the war will be regarded as an enemy country by China, then China will cut off all supplies, and the impact of inflation will far exceed that of the Russia-Ukraine War
@@windcold4532 Countries are already diverting from China as a manufacturing hub with many preferring to manufacture most things in their own countries. If China was at war, the impact would not be as hard as you imagine. It's called the covid effect.
@@elijahgacheru360 More than 70% of the world's solar power generation devices are Chinese companies (such as China's Longji Green Energy), the world's largest battery supplier is China's CATL (which is the main supplier of Tesla cars), and of course 90% of the world's wireless Human-machine suppliers are all Chinese companies, such as DJI and autel
Remember when Binkov predicted a very one sided war when assessing Russia vs Ukraine, with Russia winning in his scenario not too long ago? Yeah his opinions have as much validity as a fish that can't breathe underwater
To be fair, pretty much every analyst before the invasion predicted that Ukraine was going to be steamrolled.
Vast majority of analysts predicted Ukraine would lose the conventional battle, many of which saying it wouldn't last more than 3 days.
Very true 👍
Japanese and American submarines will be happy to sink the Chinese navy.
And then a Virginia is lost and nukes start flying
@@thegenericguy8309 China has basically no modern anti submarine capability
16:21 I would add that unlike Russia, China is a major agricultural importer. Russians can afford to be isolated because they have the basic building block of a modern society within their borders, being Energy and Food. China is an importer of both. As long as US Navy rules the high seas China is always under threat that's discounting it's strategically competent neighbors
You already mentioned the solution: Russia, being a major food exporter, could provide for at least a part of the required food quantities.
West would be hurt more as a vast majority of goods are made in China
well china is a largest food producer in the world, just search largest food producer by country
@@Fauzanarief-n7i You mean by those fake numbers the Chinese puts out? The farmers there report record crop yiields every year, the government has by policy a massive food reserve to sustain itself for I believe it was a year but when the lockdowns started the people starved, where was the food?
China is a great liar, if they would be honest they wouldn't need such a big censor cover, we the west put all our embarrassing mistakes in the open so we can work to make it better but you Chinese pretend like everything is perfect while your people are dying silently.
Go live in the world of the network where everything is perfect while we here in reality are trying to make the world a better place for everyone.
Binkov should do one about Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fighting each other over the water there
Just want to emphasize that not only is Taiwan de facto independent, we also have a democratically elected government, unlike China's.
I thought you guys are China ROC?
Your democracy isn't very democratic. Especially since your foreign policy is 100% run by us.
@@dirremoire it's called dominion
@@fromfareast3070 Lol since when
If Taiwan thinks that it does not belong to China, it should revise its country name, constitution, and national flag, otherwise the world will not be able to support Taiwan. You cannot let other countries violate the diplomatic foundation with China because of fear of war.
It won't just be US joining the fight for Taiwan, Japan will face an existential threat if Taiwan is taken, and it cannot afford not to defend Taiwan.
And with that, the Quad will likely get involved. India may impose a blockade in the Indian Ocean, and Australia may send some naval elements to join the US fleet for blockades in the South Pacific, but will definitely stop all resources supply to China.
Furthermore, submarines are the key, even more than air and rocket assets. US has superior submarine resources to China, and are much better trained in anti-submarine warfare. China is starting to build some decent submarines with good AIP systems due to their technological edge in batteries, but their submarine force and much of the navy are newly built and may not compare to the US Navy experience-wise. Taiwan itself is also embarking on building its own submarines, and the longer it is until China does invade, the better the chance that this will succeed. As Ukraine have shown it is possible for Taiwan to build small swarms of maritime drones to overwhelm defenses and damage or destroy vessels, if they unleash this against China's landing force, they could damage or sink a lot of the landing craft and the escorts will not be able to do much about it with their current equipment - those Taiwanese video gamers will prove their worth as drone and UAV pilots.
Loool how funny you to talk about drones when china have more drone technology and manufacturing capability on these. Yup more drones will be used...except its china using on taiwan not the other way round hahahaha
you have to be fair, russia barely has a navy and its shitty as fuck. the only thing that they really have naval wise is extremely long range supersonic missiles... which are not so useful if anything gets close to you.
@@serpenzaisasoblaowhy86ishi29 should we show them the video of chinese drones effortlessly flying through a forest? Gonna be some hard lessons if we end up in a war with china.
The whole Chinese army is only sons because of the one child policy. This presents some interesting social dilemmas for the Chinese army.
War in any era. People really dont remember ww1 and ww2
Because invading taiwan would be even harder due to the need for amphibious assault and the mountainous terrain.
One of the biggest things that helps Taiwan is their chip industry.
All highly advanced chips come from Taiwan. So alot of US military chips aswell.
The US needs Taiwan. And if China incorporates Taiwan the U.S might likely loose their advanced chips. Which they wont allow.
bruh,USA has doing robbing Taiwan chip industry now.dont you watch news?
@@ts757arse Exactly and that is why the U.S will respond to Taiwan with force.
They are reliant on them. The U.S are making domestic chips with the help of Taiwan but always "inferior" chips.
The newest and latest chips are only made on Taiwan itself. Which they want to keep that way because it is a safeguard.
The moment countries can make the chips themselves, they are in trouble
@FD&BJ Yeah so ive read aswell. That was the thing I pointed out with Taiwan holding the best chips factories within their border. As long as that is there they are "safe".
The U.S and China both work on getting their own factories up but they are just not there yet in terms of skill.
Exactly. Japan would join because China claims Japanese islands which are just beyond Taiwan. The only country in the region that wants China to win is China.
Lays Chips are a big fav of mine.
Japan would be 100% involved in fiercely defending Taiwan. 🇹🇼
Japan stated this last year publicly to the world.
Thank you. So many people forget or don't know that there are a ton of neighbors who will get involved directly or heavily supply Taiwan, regaurdless of what the US does.
South Korea probably as well. Taiwan is crucial for USA, Japan and South Korea thanks to enormous microprocessor manufacturing capacity.
China would also shot itself into leg should TSMC be destroyed.
yeah, it would be a big ol mess lol. I don't think the chinese can afford that mess and hold on to power but sillier things have been done to justify a regime
The US needs to fully unleash Japan and let them max out their military capability. We need them to be as strong as possible.
@@TheCapn23 what you think they be doing?
Japan has one of the strongest defense systems on the planet, they already said they'd come to aid Taiwan
If Japan helps taiwan china will join Russia to take back diayu and kuril Islands
@@anakborneo8276 agreed
If this war actually happened and Japan joined it, The Chinese army will got buff with double combat power,maybe more. SERIOUSLY
@@goodluck250 As a Chinese mainlander, I completely agree, and I can see that it is because of the historical hatred between China and Japan. Before Japs intervened, there may have been some disagreement within China about the appropriateness of the war, but after that, the vast majority would support it
Sounds like a big bluff from Japan they aren't going to help the ROC. The Japanese have nothing to gain from joining the ROC. Look at Ukraine? No helped them out besides aid most of Europe will do nothing if Russia attacks another European nation. The most surprising and shocking part is the British, French, Germans, and USA did noting for Ukraine besides again aid. They allowed Russia to attack her when they were trained to fight Russia during it's old Soviet Union days. Plus Russia would also join China's side to retake Diayu and Kuril islands back from Japan.
On advantage not brought up here is that Taiwan has spend decades attending to their defense needs with a singular threat in mind unlike Ukraine. They are also more familiar with western tech which would make them better able to take on new systems.
nah. if you read anything on the taiwan military at all, it all indicates that their military, if anything, is less on less focused on an actual viable defence and instead spends on things are would be useless in war. things like the abrams tank, which is fuel hungry on an island facing blockade in war, and totally exposed when the enemy has air dominance. their navy even bought a LDP, like where do they think they will be amphibiously invading with that one ship against china?
And Mainland spend decades too, don't like Russia, whose soldiers even in Febrary drill don't prepare in mind to invade Ukraine
@@mxn1948 while we may disagree with strategy and specific weapons acquisitions they are still only thinking in terms taking on China where as China must think about India, Russia and Taiwan complete with likely foreign intervention.
With regards to the LPD I agree there would be better things to buy with limited funds but I think they are looking at defending/retaking some small islands they currently possess between them and China.
As for Abrams they really don’t have much other choice as they tanks they have were out dated 30 years ago and the US is likely the only option for a supplier. Unless you have another idea where they might replace there Patton variants.
Sad to say taiwan is currently spending their defense budget is wrong platforms. They should have invest more on the navy and airforce. Taiwan can boost its navy by building numerous midget submarines, unmanned submersible vehicles, sea mines and continue boosting its anti-ship and anti-air missiles system.
@@nieljosephpalca7849 I tend to mostly agree in terms of LPD vs other stuff. Fighters, anti-air and ship missiles, subs, and surface combatants that will carry missile are mostly what they need. But they do need to attend to their ground forces and their tanks are in serious need of an upgrade.
Cultural factors may prohibit this also but realistically if they really wanted it to not be worth it to invade for China they might want to look at making their gun policy closer to Switzerland ( being the US on guns would be too much a leap). That would make that island a total porcupine.
You are forgetting two important factors:
1: Japan has already said it would fight for Taiwan if it's invaded. They know China would take Okinawa right after Taiwan is finished.
2: India as a country can't survive if China damns the source of the Ganges and Brahmaputra, and China also claims large chunks of India as their own. There is a good chance India might seize that once in a lifetime opportunity and go into Tibet while China's military is being spent fighting in Taiwan. India knows Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh would be next, and they would also know that China could never hope to win a war on two fronts. That, and the local population of Tibet wouldn't exactly be willing to fight to the death to defend China. Hell, half the population would probably actively help Indian forces.
bull shit
But what if pak revenge attack on India
Dude I can tell from thousands of miles that you're an Indian.
@@arminius6506 obviously I'm,
And why are you middling here
I asked the question to the person who commented no you LoL, idfc who are you
@@MirFaizan12 you are a slave to pentagon and IMF, dont punch beyond your weight, pakistan is already facing 2 front war, TTP is killing your soldiers and police on a daily basis.
The amount of CCP copium in the comments is very funny
Making up stupid words like copium just show arrogance and show the stupidity of the writer.
@@dingodog5677 Cope. Seethe. Little Winnie the Pooh lover
@@adamerickson7605 more pretty name calling. I expect as much from brainless twits. Can you write. Sentence with substance?
I am for Taiwan's independence. But seriously, Taiwan has to prepare to fight its own battle with all its resources. I don't see why Taiwan hasn't been secretly stockpiling needed war supplies & building underground facilities etc for many years since they have known for decades of the CCP invasion plan for Taiwan. The 70 year question has been not IF but WHEN. They have a decent GNP. And they have also blindly contributed to the economic rise of CCP China which enabled its military rise as well. If Taiwan hasn't been doing the former measures than it will be their own fault for being taken over by the CCP. I doubt many nations including the US will shed their sons' blood to defend Taiwanese sovereignty since Taiwan has been so blind & neglectful. Learn the since 2014 Ukrainian lesson, Taiwan, people back up someone who prepares & fights back against the bully.
They should allow citizens to own arms and form self defence militias in case an invasion occurs.
We did stored tons of resources. It's the guy who created this video didn't know about it
I live in Tokyo. Japan just increase defense budget by almost 50%. Japan is making preparations to counter china in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. With the increase Japan will be there third highest spender when it comes to defense budgets just behind America and China. An Allied Japan and US should hopefully deter China from invading in the first place, but if they don’t they will learn why having strategic alliances is so important.
Hey, Zombie
JAPS RAPING IMPERIALISTS RAPED & KILLED CHINESE KOREANS BRITS DUTCHS.....in *WWII*
25million Chinese died, directly or indirectly due to war & hunger disease, in 14 long yrs of Fighting JAPS RAPING DEMONS
China taking back Taiwan Province is like USA taking back Hawaii had the Japs succeeded in grabbing Hawaii in 1942
*IT has been a CHINA INTERNAL AFFAIRS, & has Nothing to do with Rapist Monster Ultra-Militaristic Japos !*
You do wake up, I pray 🙏🏻
Japan should never have a military again lol
The big tough Japanese lol. That was 80 years ago when the Japanese fought the poor countries in Asia. Japan, South Korea and the USA don’t even have the guts to invade North Korea.
Japan want to get nuke again?
China should never have a military again.
The main issue is: When the war start, women and children wont be able to move to other countries, unlike in Ukraine...Weapons and basic supplies wont flow easily to Taiwan,,as in the case of Ukraine..China will find it hard to cross the strait..so millies, drones, and fighters will have to work. Taiwans energy and other infrastructures can be totally destroyed.
Stup*d as* hol*, can you please say who will win the war then?
@@asgglass2709 china will but it will end up poorer but it manage the goal of the people liberation army
I am surprised that Japan isn't in the picture. If China takes over Taiwan, China can basically clutch the throat of Japan. I don't think Japan would let that happen.
As China people, we have no opposition to Japan.But if Japan dares to help the illegal regime in Taipei, then we are very willing to send some nuclear bombs to Japan, just like the United States in those days.
Japan has no right interfering in a Chinese civil war. Neither does the US. Yes, it would be a civil war.
@@sudonim7552 You don't work in the Japanese government anyway.
Japan even not a normal country, it is not allowed have army, peace and neutrality is best for Japan.
Japan is gonna have the third largest military by 2040, China is fucked
Really interesting how everyone think they’re military geniuses all of a sudden 😂
China would have to take Taiwan the hard way. Even Xi has to accept that the entire point of taking taiwan would be to get their microchip manufacturing fully under his thumb. Destroying those machines and equipment would put the world back years of microchip development, and probably put China back decades with ensuing sanctions. Failure to understand the near unfathomable value of those chips will render the entire invasion mute. Sure, you gain political standing and world renown, but what would be the point if within a few years, the technological gap between you and your rivals is just as bad or even worse!
台湾从很久以前一直是中国领土 为什么中国不能收回领土？台湾和中国一直都是内战关系
It’s not about microchips, China has not just recently decided that they want Taiwan, this is long unfinished business from the Chinese civil war. The microchips are just a coincidence. China would want Taiwan even if it held no strategic value and offered nothing economically. It’s unfinished business that they would rather end.
被制裁了，在全世界收不到利益，我们就不会顾及那么多了，一句话说不好就是打他😔
@@testinghydra5652 If what you say is true China would be in a death match with the US and the West. The oceans would be swept clear of all Chinese shipping and non-Chinese vessels carrying Chinese imports and exports. The war would go nuclear because whichever side is losing will resort to the use of nuclear weapons in order to stave off defeat. China would not just be gambling with the existence of the CCP, but with the lives of all the Chinese people. Do you feel lucky?
@@ExE7333 Chinese nuclear weapons policy is a matter of expediency. Otherwise I agree wholeheartedly with your post.
wonderful video. I've been studying this topic for the last three months. You've covered everything I found out really logically and in 18 mins!
I think the geography is more similar to Nazi Germany to Great Britain , during world war two. China would have a very easy time bombing Taiwan , but a amphibious assault never happened as far as I know .
1.Guided bombs
2. The air war was a stalemate until Britain won, because they had about the same amount of air units