Operation Codename: Assault Clad in Darkness | Russian Kharkiv Offensive Analysis
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- Опубліковано 13 тра 2024
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I think Odessa is also important since thats where Ukraine is attacking Russian ships from
Not just because of that, its also because of Transnistria and the problems of the NATO buildup in Moldavia. And of course because of the brutal arson against so many innocents in Trade Unions House fire 2014. Plus its pro-russian attitudes. But at this stage, its simply too complicated to launch an offensive to Odessa, not even to take back Cherson because of the logistics over the Dnjepr. Other wargoals are more important now, it would be a too bad tradeoff to waste half an army just to save some old ships. When the Russians are heading towards Saporischija, then we can talk about the final goal Odessa, but not now.
Good point
@@FabiusPolis
My thoughts exactly.
It's a game of chess where there is weakness, there the action goes and villages start falling.
Odessa is a more difficult objective
Waiting to see new FAB3000 ;)
On April 9, Russian servicemen raised the Russian flag in the town of Pervomaiskoe in the Avdeevka region in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Footage from the town showed soldiers of the 9th Guards Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hoisting the flag in the settlement.
The 9th brigade of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed several brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The 59th and 53rd Ukrainian brigades were reinforced by the 25th brigade right before the town came under the Russian control.
The victory in Pervomaiskoe was approached by the recent Russian victory in the village of Vodyanoe located to the north.
The AFU may attempt more counterattacks west of Pervomaiskoe in an attempt to slow down the further Russian advance to the west; but they are unlikely to have any significant impact on the balance of power on the battlefield. The Russian Army is completing the mop up operation on the western outskirts, reinforcing defense of the captured settlement.
In their turn, the AFU retreated to the west to the town of Netailovo, which is one the main Ukrainian strongholds in the region. The advance to Netailovo allows the Russian military to mop up the field areas between Pervomaiskoe and Nevelskoe, where the AFU are still in control of several strongholds.
Russian victory in Pervomaiskoe improves Russian position in the entire Avdeevka region. The Ukrainian military lost its chance to counterattack on the southern flank, while the battles have already approached the village of Umanskoe.
Excellent analysis Thank you
These developments across the front make me wonder if this is shaping the battlefield for the offensive or if this is the first opening stage of the offensive and it will just be a further expansion of activity across the front that will overwhelm Ukraine en masse. They don't have to wage a blitzkrieg big arrow offensive in order to wage a large scale offensive. They could adopt a wide front strategy that just spreads Ukraine thin everywhere all at once and overwhelming them while continuing to wage small operations across the entire front on this same scale here.More and more locations instead of massed formations and spearheads.
Whatever the case these developments show the deterioration of the Ukrainian position and it is going to keep getting worse regardless of any aid packages. They lack the manpower and the resources are not available for purchase or transfer to make any impact for the UAF. They still haven't delivered all of the million shells from the last package from last year and they cannot begin to produce new ones until the old order is produced and filled. Artillery and air defense systems are scarce and tanks are no where to be found. The process of attritional warfare is yielding major fruit with small scale operations involving just companies and battalion level operations. 400+ kilometers squared in 2024 alone without anything larger than a battalion sized attack is unheard of.
Great analysis, you may want to start your own channel.
I dont see how the Russians could be 'defeated' in this offensive. Ukraine doesn't have the reserves to defeat a Russian force once they entrench a base somewhere. If they redeploy reserves, then the main front will continue to collapse. The move up to Kharkov might be slow, but it can't be stopped. Extending the flank as far as they can should only help them.
What happened last time they tried to take Kharkiv huh? What happened? What happened in Kiev?
@@jaynikk758 completely different situation not even close to the same
They did not attempt to take either Kiev or Kharkov by force, and could not have given the lack of force available. This is so well known and obvious that denying it is akin to believing in Santa Claus.
That said, Kharkov is big, and I imagine it would be difficult to take even with the current level of forces, assuming it does not capitulate.
@@jaynikk758 since then half a million Ukrainian soldiers have died and Russia have mobilized.
@@jaynikk758
In early 2022, Russia was not prepared for a protracted war in Ukraine. Less than a measly 200k personnel were sent to Ukraine that year, with the purpose of pressuring its government to come to the negotiating table.
Also, the Russians were not prepared for a Ukrainian blitzkrieg in the Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022. The frontline there was horribly undermanned, defences ill-prepared.
That is so NOT the case today. In the 2 years of fighting, the Russians have greatly learned from their past mistakes and adapted to the situation, and their manpower and firepower have surged almost 7-fold. Not to mention their military production has also increased significantly. This was clearly demonstrated in their successful defence against the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive in 2023 and the battle of Avdiivka. The RuAF of February 2022 was nothing compared to the RuAF of today.
I agree, why would they go in head on, when instead they could just bypass the place, keep it besieged and wait.
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dont suppose you got a link? i do like to fact check....:)
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Russians are born different and they blessed with most effective leader walking on the earth right now.
Who can demolish western hegemony and hypocrisy🎉
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The West has managed to accumulate the worst group of leaders we have ever had. Most Americans are NOT supporting this Ukraine nonsense, this is being pushed by the political class, NOT by the people. Yes, Americans are tired of this constant warfare and Ukraine needs to go to the peace table while they still can.
Why would the Russian army use a huge ammount of troops entering a city, while just under kiev, along the dnieper they can close off any and all logistics for the ukraine and create immediately a defensive line, while starving out the charkov region.
This. I wrote the same but it doesn’t show up, strangely
I thought of something similar
Yeah they are going to try to avoid storming the city. It depends on the level of breakdown that occurs within the Ukrainian military as to whether storming the city will be necessary. Even encirclement would require an enormous amount of resources though. More than they used in the beginning of the SMO tbh.
Love this type of vidoes and especially the ones that talk about the front in General and also linking it with politics, economy, social factor and other factors...please keep up the good work and do increase this type of videos, I really enjoy them. 💯
Thanks for infos 👍 Greetings from Italy!
Great update . It’s good you keep producing content about the up coming Russian offensive , you make some great points
thanks, good analysis.
Tak for opdatering.
Det var en spaendene oplysning om Khakiv situationen
Very well thought out thanks
Hi weeb. You've skipped on mentioning how thin the ukies would be spread along the line of combat contact. Even if they would fill in the gaps with enough manpower (which is very unlikely), they would be forced to redirect plenty of experienced or so called "elite" brigades towards kharkiv, and would certainly allow the Russians to breakthrough plenty of current points of struggle / stagnation. The way I see it, a new and a wide front from the borders towards Kharkiv would result in massive gains for the Russians and several breakthroughs in other directions; to which the ukies would stand powerless because of the degradation in man and firepower. Their drone caused damage doesn't and won't even come close to the damage caused by Russian fabs and missiles
Sileskai : “ Kharkiv will not be of any strategic value “
funny, basically every time WU tries to "analyze" what RF will or could do on bigger scale, RF (will) do something completely different
I think Russia should go on tv and announce their goals and objectives to the media months before the operation begins. Then they can do like Zelensky and blame spies if it comes up short. 😂😂😂
Thank you 👍
Thanks!
Thanks :)
do not forget Gagausia and Transnistria
Yo, please don't involve gagauzia in this war
Kharkov
I hypothesize that the Russian army units assigned to the current front especially the Donbass will not take part in the Kharkiv offensive. It will involve corps not deployed now.
I would think so as well. This analysis seems to assume that it happens after the east and Chasiv Yar region already collapse but it would be smarter to mobilize new units from the north and force yet another front on the Ukrainians that they would have to divert supplies to and the whole eastern front may collapse as a result.
Absolutely 💯
@@off6848you are correct. It will be a big loss on both sides but while Russia has the advantage in almost everything. It’s time to push bc they will be spreading themselves very thin
@@rickandbrandonshow especially since they will never stop supplying Odessa and Kherson
It amazes me they even have anything left I bet countries are sending stuff on the down low I remember Bulgaria got busted about a year ago trying to secretly transport tanks and SPGs in pieces
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Silly comment 😮
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Влад❤❤
Fortifications are all fine and dandy but if you don't have the manpower to fill them then all they're just poorly built drainage ditches....😄
Russians should move towards Dnipro, before Kharkiv
Very interessting videos. 1 suggestion: start your video with a data, it is easier to follow
Nice
I can't be the only one thinking the main effort will be in Chernigov, not Kharkov. Maskirovska is what I think I'm seeing
It will definitely involve maskirovka and deception. Russia isn't Ukraine and won't announce their goals on network television like Zelensky and the west do. We will not know what to expect until it happens but I know it will surprise us when it comes
Kharkiv about to become Kharkov
Would taking Kharkiv bring an end to the attacks upon Belgorod ?
👍
Z
se gli ucraini hanno questa carenza di uomini e armi di cui si parla ogni giorno, come potrebbero concentrare intorno a Karkiv la gran parte delle loro forze? Rischierebbero di essere travolti su tutto il resto del fronte e poi perdere anche karkiv Non mi pare che abbia molto senso
❤❤
Hello Weeb.
One needs to ALWAYS include the geopolitical side FIRST as battles are "politics by other means".
That said...
It's clear that strategy could be changed, but why? and why now?
The 4 oblasts are Russian they must be liberated.
THEN the objectives, ALREADY outlined at the start of the SMO, can be implemented as a "continuation".
It's so tempting, when things are going your way, to start thinking BIG and become invincible.
Concentrate, focus, quicken the pace, eat that elephant. Get it done ✅.
Why not start your own channel
"Assault Clad in Darkness", the latest James Bond movie, coming soon to a theater near you.
It's always easier to control a party at your own house, having a fight down the street is very dangerous, it's just common sense
Damn i should be asleep rn.
Sleep
Are you sleeping yet? :)
Is it being invaded right now.
😎
I tend to doubt that Russia will stage some dramatic big offensive since Russia doesn't have enough soldiers (600,000?) or equipment for that. Per Alexander M's label, Russia will pursue an aggressive offensive strategy, moving at an ever-increasing pace as the weeks of summer go by.
Ultimately the biggest offensive effort, if one happens at all, is likely to go toward Zaporizhya and then Dnipro with likely a river crossing by Paratroops between the two cities. The bridges in Zaporizhya and Dnipro will be destroyed, and Zaporizhya isolated but not occupied. Russia's seeming lack of significant interest in this part of the front, and fewer Ukraine fortifications, adds to the feeling that it will be selected. The recently completed rail line to the south has greatly improved logistics - just in time for Spring/Summer.
Kharkiv is perhaps politically important, but left without civilians, electricity, heat and likely water, Kharkiv is not a strategic city. Ukraine will not get value from Kharkiv in the future even if it continues to hold the city.
Kharkiv can too easily become the equivalent of Moscow or Stalingrad for Germany in WWII, for Russia in the Ukraine War. Russia can steadily attrit whatever forces Ukraine feels are required to protect the city. An occasional faint toward the city will cause Ukraine to tiedown even more troops in the place as well getting Russian bloggers all excited.
Sounds plausible
here to comment weeb onion
🧅
@ real
Would it technically be possible to make a push on Kharkov, siege the city and push further until Dnepropetrovsk and siege it too to cut off two main supply hubs for the Ukrainians? Or would it become a logistical nightmare for Russia itself?
what are these yellow dots and lines?
🐻
Finally
I dont know why everyone thinks there will be some "Massive" "Sweeping offensive". Why would they do that? Is this just a Western way of thinking? What they are already doing is working just fine. Any help on offer cannot change the outcome. So Russia can just keep making small incremental gains with minimum casualties on both sides.
Every escalation from the WORST rewards Russia's strategic options. They break combat rules just as we are witnessing daily, thereby rewarding Russia who incrementally takes territory to secure a buffer.
@@bigreba Well. its certainly working for Russia. "Aint broke dont fix it" i guess.
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Selamat hari raya idul fitri 1445 weeb
Xarkov is of little strategic value and could require months to besiege and take, largely destroying it in the process. It seems more likely that a new front, catastrophically stretching Ukrainian resources, would be through Sumy to a Dniepr crossing, possibly Kremenchuk. Ukrainians would be forced to divert resources to halt such a move, causing weakness on the Donetsk positions. Also, a stab towards Kremenchuk could cut critical supply routes to the east.
Is there even any indication Russians have forces north of Kharkov sizeable enough for any such offensive? They would need to redeploy plenty of units first, which would take months first.
Ok this idea that russia are purposefully semi encircling a city so that ukranian Can retreat and avoid mariupol is wrong. Its better to capture thousands of men then to let them go and have to fight them again later.
If russia hasnt fully encircling a city it surrounds its because theyre either in the process or not able to.
It is because encircling a city fully results in you having a sliver of territory on the far side of the city that it is difficult to supply and defend.
If you know that you can't retreat you'll fight much harder. Does Russia want the Ukrainians to fight like a cornered animal, especially in an urban area?
@@TheHimbeerjoghurt Without daily supply soldiers can only fight for hours before they run out of ammo. The ukranians would just surrender like they normally do. Russians would accept them as theyd want to do prisoner swaps.
@@nton8057we saw that they didn't surrender so fast in Mariupol
@@nton8057 If they take you by surprise, yes. If you see a siege coming, you prepare for it. That means food, ammo etc...
I bet on Suny. Just to expand the front and create a pincer movement.
UT must heavily supress this channel. Membership doesnt seem to change a tick over time.
Russia celebrating Eid with fireworks
There is no "Kharkiv",mister.
That city is named Harkov and that name will be forever!
agreed. it's a russian city.
Speculations are a waste of time.
🇭🇷🍀🇷🇺✌
potential movie ... useless lets see what russian will do in term
ZOV
Gross speculation.
NATO no doubt be speculating where Russia will attack also. Why Ukraine is building fortifications all along possible routes of attack
Is building fortifications also Gross speculation?
Putler kaput😂
I think we all are interested to be informed of REAL development, real facts and their explanations rather than potential scenarios. Please try to report reality rather than fantasize about the unknown Russian plans! Thank you!
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The unnatural world uses a car…..a man made creation, a diety, your unnatural copy/creation, your dead god!
Your world is the unnatural world, which is destroying my world/creation.
Your days are to end. I have said it.
Read my Words . Know the truth
Selah!😀🎼😇❤️
Weeb Union: Huge red arrow offensive
Reality: Slight advance of a couple of km over some months
Russia’s Anti-Drone ‘Turtle Tank’ Got Too Famous For Its Own Good. Ukraine’s Troops Tracked It Down-And Blew It Up.
died the way it lived: encased in an awkward metal shell that prevented its turret from rotating and surely hindered its mobility.
Just a day or so after the modified T-72 appeared on the front line around Krasnohorivka, just west of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian drone team spotted the 51-ton, three-person tank sheltering in a hangar in Donetsk’s Petrovs'kyi district.
An apparent Ukrainian artillery barrage targeted the hangar, destroying it and the vehicles inside-including the notorious do-it-yourself up-armored tank.
cool story bro
Guess the Ukranians will take Moscow soon.
click bait
There's literally zero point launching such an offensive, Kharkiv is a massive city with over a million people in it, the manpower and equipment to not only launch the offensive but defend it would be very high, and for what? A few fields, towns and potentially a city that will be evacuated of most people?
The only reason I see Russia launching such a large offensive would be if Russia sees this as the end game, as in they expect the ukrainian army to completely break from the pressure which would mean a collapse of the entire front.. but even though Ukraine is obviously struggling right now, I don't think they're that close to collapsing. Another year or two of this grinding attrition war and then maybe, for now though there's no point.
Also keep in mind that Russia haven't said anything about an offensive, it's only Ukraine and babyface Budanov.. so to me this entire ordeal sounds like a scare tactic to get more welfare from the west.
Poor analyst skill wastage of time.
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Wrong channel but I support you in your demand
God this is so lame and cringe
waste of time.not a good video.
😂😂😂 cry hard
stop making vids over speculations
W
I can't understand how/why the Russians are allowing to built fortifications as the simply can attack those machines by drones, but I still caould not found even a single fpv drone attack during building those strongholds
They probably are just PR stunts not actual defensive lines.
Study the ''Art of War'' and you will see how you allow the adversary to invest huge resources that at any optimum time of your choosing could be snuffed out
Well clearly you're not looking, there's multiple videos of drone attacks against machinery that dig those trenches and places the tank traps. But that's done miles from the front line which means the defenses being built further in would have to be targetted by missiles which is obviously not worth the cost.
The russians started building their defensive line above Soledar almost as soon as they took it, and even though they were close enough for small drones to reach them, it wasn't really an issue because 1. They build hundreds of meters per day which is too fast to keep track of, and 2. The equipment they use are heavily armored which means the small drones would have to target hatches which is not as easy as you think.
@@bigreba But as I see/think, that fortifications and defence belts can cause too many casualties. at first how good the russian repealed summer counteroffensive and now we all see that how hard is at some places to move forward. e.g. Bogdanivka, novamikhalilovka etc. so I think Ru must no allow ukrainians to built that fortifications, as I said, it will slow down the attack and cause many casulaties. I;m not the experts, but my position is depended on facts. Just my opinion
After 2+ years the Russians still haven’t taken the whole of the Donbas so I can’t imagine a scenario in which they attempt to take a huge city like Kharkov.
Best case scenario is that Kharkov and Odessa become Russian cities once again at the negotiating table.
Unlikely for Ukraine to give up either city at the negotiating table, especially Odessa.
Russia is chipping away at resources and Ukraines men and doing it quite well so why rush when the balls clearly in your court Russia will grind Ukraines army down to nothing and they will unconditionally surrender and have no say as to what Russia wants
Z