Really enjoyed listening to you guys! And I agree 100% with most of it, but not with the Basic land hate! xD The "blood moon" was mentioned a lot, but it kinda seems you forget how it's not just the enchantment. Sure you might be using the name of the OG card to refer to its effect, but Winotas are everywhere these days, and Magus is something to fear! I have tapped mana more often than not in response to Winota triggers, knowing it would be the last colored mana I could achieve pretty much most of the time. And the one single Island has helped me quite often to have mana for a Chain of Vapor OR (true story) have that 1 single blue mana to interact after having been a target of an Assassin's Trophy. Flusterstorm/Swan Song were again online after that. Sure Trophy doesn't see much play these days, and it can be meta dependant, as my old meta was actually packing quite some Path to Exile, and still some Trophies.
Kuma would appreciate my Curious Control list with a responsible 32 lands. Kill Forbidden Orchard (hate giving bodies for cradle, tymna, culling the weak etc) Fuck City of Traitors (can't marry into such a luxury, but I'd tap it. Marry Emergence zone (don't run it in anything, but the prospect of winning on top of someone sounds legit in certain decks.
Sorry, missed adding that. In the description now and here you go as well. Link to code: docs.google.com/document/d/1H68Lp_EJp27l3dIi2zaTDZ27dUpwjDssx0VmdPTWiGA/edit
Just by the nature of a 4 player game where 2nd place is equal to last place there can’t be any justification for keeping nearly 50% of your first sevens. (I’m not implying anyone said different but I get the vague feeling maybe you haven’t articulated this mentally) In a toy game scenario w all players playing the same deck and at equal skill level if you have one player who is taking a “polarized” approach., they are looking for more “high rolls” at the cost of more mulling yourself out of the game, that player will be in “first and last place” more often and have more of an average game less often. It can’t possibly be right keep an average starting hand even if you just get one free mull and no more chances to mulligan. Now add to that the fact that it’s a singleton format w obvious power outliers and the delta between a great hand and an average hand is much bigger than just, sort of a linear difference and it tips even more in favor of keeping less first sevens. Now add the fact that you don’t have to keep your second seven if it’s not good and we find ourselves even more incentivized to mull harder. I have no real evidence for this number being right but I mulligan at least 75-80% of my first sevens and more than half of my 2nd sevens and then at 6 I start getting a bit less picky but I might even be wrong about that. It could even be the case that the 6 card hand ought to be pitched at or around the rate of the first seven (my intuitions about that pull me in different directions. You have less penalty for mulling the first seven but it also feels like you maybe need to get a bit luckier to win on 6 so those seem to create incentives that are at odds. DONT KEEP HALF OF YOUR SEVENS!! Unless you play against me then I want you to just be happy with an average hand. You want to play the game right? So play it safe and try to skill your way thru the actual game 😉 Thanks for putting this work in Great video
Thanks for watching! I pretty much agree with everything you said. I'm in no way suggesting you should keep 50% of your first sevens. I'm just saying that if your only consideration was mana, about half of your first sevens were keepable under the given conditions. Obviously when we account for payoffs as well as mana, the number of mulligans will be higher.
This data just makes me want to cut to 20 lands
Really enjoyed listening to you guys! And I agree 100% with most of it, but not with the Basic land hate! xD The "blood moon" was mentioned a lot, but it kinda seems you forget how it's not just the enchantment. Sure you might be using the name of the OG card to refer to its effect, but Winotas are everywhere these days, and Magus is something to fear! I have tapped mana more often than not in response to Winota triggers, knowing it would be the last colored mana I could achieve pretty much most of the time. And the one single Island has helped me quite often to have mana for a Chain of Vapor OR (true story) have that 1 single blue mana to interact after having been a target of an Assassin's Trophy. Flusterstorm/Swan Song were again online after that. Sure Trophy doesn't see much play these days, and it can be meta dependant, as my old meta was actually packing quite some Path to Exile, and still some Trophies.
Kuma is a legend!
Kuma would appreciate my Curious Control list with a responsible 32 lands.
Kill Forbidden Orchard (hate giving bodies for cradle, tymna, culling the weak etc)
Fuck City of Traitors (can't marry into such a luxury, but I'd tap it.
Marry Emergence zone (don't run it in anything, but the prospect of winning on top of someone sounds legit in certain decks.
Where’s the link to the code?
Sorry, missed adding that. In the description now and here you go as well.
Link to code: docs.google.com/document/d/1H68Lp_EJp27l3dIi2zaTDZ27dUpwjDssx0VmdPTWiGA/edit
Stained Hat over on reddit also made his own version that you can check out here: github.com/stainedhat/mana-calculator
Could we have a link to the list used for the analysis?
www.moxfield.com/decks/yRsS18tYsE-jVgqmK7_Z0w
whats the tldr. most people are greedy and run too few unless theyre mardu turbo
Pretty much yeah. It's also partially a warning for the future as more cards get printed and people are more and more tempted to cut lands
Just by the nature of a 4 player game where 2nd place is equal to last place there can’t be any justification for keeping nearly 50% of your first sevens. (I’m not implying anyone said different but I get the vague feeling maybe you haven’t articulated this mentally)
In a toy game scenario w all players playing the same deck and at equal skill level if you have one player who is taking a “polarized” approach., they are looking for more “high rolls” at the cost of more mulling yourself out of the game, that player will be in “first and last place” more often and have more of an average game less often. It can’t possibly be right keep an average starting hand even if you just get one free mull and no more chances to mulligan.
Now add to that the fact that it’s a singleton format w obvious power outliers and the delta between a great hand and an average hand is much bigger than just, sort of a linear difference and it tips even more in favor of keeping less first sevens. Now add the fact that you don’t have to keep your second seven if it’s not good and we find ourselves even more incentivized to mull harder.
I have no real evidence for this number being right but I mulligan at least 75-80% of my first sevens and more than half of my 2nd sevens and then at 6 I start getting a bit less picky but I might even be wrong about that. It could even be the case that the 6 card hand ought to be pitched at or around the rate of the first seven (my intuitions about that pull me in different directions. You have less penalty for mulling the first seven but it also feels like you maybe need to get a bit luckier to win on 6 so those seem to create incentives that are at odds.
DONT KEEP HALF OF YOUR SEVENS!!
Unless you play against me then I want you to just be happy with an average hand. You want to play the game right? So play it safe and try to skill your way thru the actual game 😉
Thanks for putting this work in
Great video
Thanks for watching! I pretty much agree with everything you said. I'm in no way suggesting you should keep 50% of your first sevens. I'm just saying that if your only consideration was mana, about half of your first sevens were keepable under the given conditions. Obviously when we account for payoffs as well as mana, the number of mulligans will be higher.