Idea: Resource Storage (from the asteroid belt, for example) there's really a LOT of it, so yeah maybe you already did an episode on this, but just in case :) edit: signed it. It's a shame that they want to cancel such missions. Also a shame that their budget is so frickin low. Space is honestly low-hanging fruit and any nations who don't see this are making the dumbest of blunders.
Wow, sometimes the drive to show that you made a budget cut (and your opposition didn't) really leads to carving the capacity out of things already paid for, doesn't it? I hope they reconsider, and find more money somewhere.
Running our space industry from the Moon or Enceladus would be ideal--the biggest hurdle to that is building up the outlay. You pay an enormous cost once--but that enormous cost, if the mission is successful, covers all your space needs for decades, maybe even centuries. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me🙂
Its a dream, it would be stupid to do now, it would cost trillions. Want to cut military spending while Russia and china are building up? Stupid to do now with current tech Wait another 100 years or so, once we have technology to mine asteroids we can talk about a moonbase, right now it would be a stupid waste of money for almost 0 benefit
Reducing launch costs from $4 Billion/launch (SLS) to $10 million/launch (Starship) is necessary. Increasing launch cadence from once a year (SLS again) to once a day (Starship again) is also needed. Cost per Kg/person & launch cadence will determine what we can do.
Factories on moons have one big disadvantage (if they have no atmosphere). The only way too release heat is via radiation. Here has Mars an advantage. It has an atmosphere and can transport heat away. Oh and before you ask: no, we cannot terraform Mars into an earthlike planet. Mars' gravity is too weak to hold on to lighter gases like watervapor or oxygen iirc.
@@virgolaniakean8001 Couldn't you sink metal stakes deep into the moon in order to use the ground as one massive heatsink of effectively constant temperature (super cold for a tectonicly inactive moon), as is done to heat and cool with ground-source heat pumps? Or is the stone and dust Luna is made out of not thermally conductive enough?
@@stevenhetzel6483 If you wanna have that feeling in the near term just get aboard a small submersible. You don't need to go very deep at all to be in an environment that's completely unsurvivable.
The thing about spreading out into the solar system soon is not so much that it protects against near-term threats, but rather that there seems to be a window of opportunity to do it _soon_ -- for protection in the long term -- and we don't know when the window of opportunity may be closed ... by whatever sort of local calamity.
One of the most obvious ones would be the upcoming depletion of fuel resources like coal, gas and oil as it'll make production of steel, plastics, fertilizers, various other chemical industry products and cheap energy(and thus all other metals and alloys beside steel, that relies on coal) order or even several orders of magnitude harder. Even upholding modern tech and standard of living levels would require worldwide planning and cooperation even if we would already have all the tech figured and infrastructure prepared for mass adoption of biofuels, hydrogen and electric powered transportation and fusion power plants. And that's before we hit climate change and other upcoming crisises that will put us back to 1920's😅
@@TheArklyte Except we are nowhere near out of coal, gas and oil. We're moving away from them willingly since they are bad for animals and we feel sorry for them.
@@MrNote-lz7lh steel=carbon=coal. Even EAF relies on pig iron already having it. And widespread of EAF was the historical result of hydroelectric power producing stable constant high energy output. Solar and wind won't give that. Not on this planet in this timeline and reality 🤣 And that's the first one on the list I've mentioned. Very long list that has a deadline...
@@MrNote-lz7lhWe are way more than half way through gas and closing in on 50% depletion of coal, cant find the study rn how much oil is left, and remember that we dig this stuff up faster and faster. Before it's all fully replenished, statistically we would have 1-2 another mass extinctions unrelated to climate change. I'm not sure if you're trying to downplay this stuff on purpose or what, but we are not "sorry for the animals", it's a potential apocalypse in the making, slow and steady but still, we will really feel it 2 generations after it's too late to even do anything about it. We don't have to panic YET, but without decisive action now, we will have to panic later.
@@TheArklyte - Indeed, or one can imagine the collapse of institutions, economies -- via strategic nuclear exchanges, or extreme cultural and political balkanization, or AGI misadventures, or who knows what.
“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.” -Douglas Adams
I am 64 and hope to see a Lunar colony at minimum, preferably a Mars colony as well. But, I would really like to see a manned mission land on a astroid or two before I go. Not likely I know but one can hope. Thank you and be safe.
I guess we'll be able to see science outposts like the ISS on the moon and mars in the next 10-50 years. Maybe even some military bases or hotels for the ultra rich. But not a real colony... There is just nothing of value that needs a few hundred humans to mine or do it.
Yet another wonderfully upbeat and informed video on our potential future. I hope I live long enough to see this and more become a reality. Fantastic work Isaac.
One thing that is commonly ignored in the discussion of sourcing rocket fuel in space, is that the metals from regalith can also be used to make high performance solid rocket fuel. Powdered aluminum was used in the Space Shuttle solid rocket boosters, and the modern SLS solid rocket boosters. Lunar regalith is ~8-10% aluminum by weight, so this is an easily accessible fuel anywhere on the surface.
I do believe that the fear of losing control over people is the main reason why we are not colonizing our near space yet. It would be a matter of time until any colony would want independency and large powers hate independency.
The one real reason is that it's super expensive for no return on investment in the near future. There's no raw material that would be economically viable if you had to go to the Moon to get it. Tourism can be developed much more cheaply and easily than by building a space hotel. There's really no incentive whatsoever to build a colony now. No, I don't count making a few nerds happy a multi-trillion dollar worthy incentive.
@@General12th That's what I meant by fear of losing control. Wasting money is something all governments are very good at doing, but wasting money to create a rebel nation, that is something they want to avoid. We want a wild west situation but it would never be allowed.
Isaac surrounds himself with people that love space and that is great! But simply saying space is extremely popular among the general public is not accurate as he does early in this piece. I wish Isaac would do more of a deep dive into the history of space exploration funding as it relates to things like near term colonization and exploration. I know this channel prides itself in it's futurism but grounding itself in the history of humanity moving to space will only let the channel fly to new heights. Maybe that would be more of a Nebula exclusive but I regard it more as a public service type of content than futurism speculation and would fit well in the public space of UA-cam.
This came out just in time for the early release version of Starfield! I pre-ordered it so I can play it September 1. It is quite interesting living in a time where we are seeing the very beginnings of early space colonization with programs like Artemis and also seeing the kinds of things people imagine our future in space can be like. Excited either way!
Venus also has all that heat in the atmosphere as a power source. That is a strong tempeture differencial. Heat engine, thermo-electric coupling, heck, a blimp that is painted white, a tube hanging from it, its out side is isolative, the inside conducts heat to the blimp, heat inside cools, sinks, thus drives a turbine. The Bonus? This makes the cooling aspect of terraforming pay for itself.
I have to remind you that there were a whole series of robot landers that soft-landed on the Lunar surface well before humans did. The first was the Soviet lander Luna 9, which returned pictures (leading to a bit of a political row between the USSR, which sent the probe, and the UK, which had one of the few receiving stations capable of recovering the returned data, causing the USSR to claim the data was stolen when the UK published the pictures first). This was followed by multiple US Surveyor missions, as well as further Soviet Luna missions that soft landed. It is extremely unlikely that there will ever be any body where humans land that isn't first scouted by robot landers. The information these return about the environment is far to important for risk control of human landings to not get.
The manned lunar landing tends to overshadow those earlier probes in most Americans' minds. (I also forgot about them until reading your comment.) I think part of it is that the US probes were a little less hyped, because they weren't first and because Soviet achievements were (and often still are) ignored or downplayed in the US for political reasons. Another part is that manned missions tend to be more exciting for the average person. It's good to remember that space exploration is hard enough that we don't want to throw things into the complete unknown. We take remote measurements before sending probes and we send automated probes before we send people.
yeah, I thought about those too, but I wasn't sure what the timeline on them was again. But, I guess you are right. Earth is, and will probably be forever, the only body any human was ever on, where a robot wasn't on before.
I didn't forget them I just don't consider them robotic rovers, and the first that really merits the title of robot, Lunokhod 1, was in 1970. That doesn't mean getting a camera down there before Armstrong set foot on isn't an accomplishment, but the context is a device able to go around surveying the place like a human could.
@@cosmictreason2242 I know the earliest ones were more or less just projectiles hastily chucked at the moon (even covered in explosive panels like reactive tank armour so that at least one panel would get blasted in the opposite direction of the crash and survive with its metal Soviet symbols intact), but I think the later ones were soft-landed, but immobile. The wording threw me too, but I guess Issac was just using a different definition of a robot explorer, since an immobile listening post/weather station is more 'observing' than 'exploring'.
I hope this channel grows and stays around a long time. I'm sick with Covid and am having the worst time sleeping. This is fascinating and relaxing enough to distract me from being cranky and ill. ❤
👍 I think a robot rover from USSR was on the moon just before the humans. :) Not sure if that counts, but we always seem to land robots first. Lagrange point dust for earth cooling is interesting!
A lunar manufacturing facility makes sense. Imagine producing space colony base modules for orbital insertion as an intact colony from lunar orbit, then once complete sending the colony to Mars, Venus, etc. as a finished and fully stocked package. A crew then travels with only that needed for the trip to the colony, to a ready and fully stocked colony facility once the colony is safely in orbit at the destination. This would reduce costs, increase safety, and allow more rapid colonization with larger colony facilities as there would be no issues with launching the entire payload and facility through Earth's atmosphere or gravity well. Instead of a minimally shielded tiny facility the size of a bus for a crew of a half dozen, we could send facilities with everything required to maintain a sustainable colony for up to 100 or more people including heavy radiation / impact shielding and artificial gravity habitats that include agricultural / hydroponics perhaps even manufacturing capabilities. One or more of these colony in box facilities could also be placed in Earth orbit as a very profitable space hotel for the rich, an orbital travel hub once orbital planes become the norm for high speed transcontinental travel, or as a replacement for current science / military stations like we have presently. These could also be tailored to manufacturing micro gravity products, or high G products, for all kinds of applications as well. Though these would likely be more advantageous in locations other than Earth orbit in this case. A lunar facility WILL pay for itself in the long run for those bold enough to risk the upfront capital investment to build it.
I think the biggest reason is mining. People colonized the new world with months away from contact back home in order to grow crops and find resources. I think this will be the main reason we do this
Yea. I imagine radical transhumanists will try to create space colonies similar to how religious extremists founded colonies in the americas. An orbital habitat is the perfect place for genetic engineers and cyborgs to do experimentation away from the laws of earth.
@@comentedonakeyboard Erik the Red was exiled from Norway and Iceland, so he just kept sailing and found Greenland, so I'm not sure that counts. The Mayflower set sail to avoid religious persecution, and the Cossacks were part of the Russian Army. They were historically nomadic and they continued to conquer out in the east just to have more land and power essentially. I'm not saying this to start an argument (even though it very much seems like that lol), but moreso am just trying to demonstrate how drastic those measures were. Such things probably wouldn't happen in quite the same way in our time as they did way back when. I just don't think getting away from people/entities that they dislike would be such a driver of insanely expensive operations or we shouldn't rely on that anyhow. I don't even know why I'm replying lol there's no point in saying why or why not people would go. As long as they go I'm (and probably you're) happy enough so sorry for making you read all that XD
I'd like to make a topic recommendation. When discussing solar sails too many people don't understand orbital mechanics and how one transfers between orbits and bodies. They seem to think that solar sails can only be used to accelerate away from the sun, or other source of light, when really they are used to increase, *_OR DECREASE,_* orbital velocity depending on which direction the light is reflected. If the light is reflected forward in the direction of orbital motion the sail will slow down the craft's orbital velocity moving it's orbit inward closer to the sun. Reflected backward it would increase orbital velocity moving it's orbit outward. This is how all movement within a gravity well works until one reaches escape velocity. I think if you could cover this, even if just a short aside within another topic, it would clear up some confusion for many.
11:25; 'Nobody wants fifty (50!) different space agencies...' Given the vastness of the local stellar neighborhood and everything... that would seem very impractical, yet likely probable. ❤
One of my favorite things about the Battletech Universe is that it points out the reality that once we are not limited to one let alone dozens of garden worlds we are much more likely to wage war on ourselves. After all there is always another planet even if we nuke this particular one to a cinder.
@@cosmictreason2242 In that universe systems are only two to three weeks travel from each other with most of that time riding from planet to jump point in a torchship. Some systems can be leapfrogged as ships can jump 30 or so LY at a time; however you generally travel from star to star do to power and navigation constraints. The settled area of space is roughly 550 LY across with about 2200 inhabited worlds.
WWII UK Sunderlands will serve as optimal ergonomic layouts for Light Space Ships; US Catalinas for even lighter ones; standard Mustang and Mosquito seats for one and two person ships.
I had a thought about near term space that might be very soon. -If that Space Hotel or something similar gets built, shooting sceens for movies in real zero-g would be awesome. And those guys already pay stupid amounts of money to shoot scenes.
1492 to 1776 - almost 300 years - seems like a reasonable estimate for the amount of time before independent nations start emerging from space colonies. The key insight here is that no nation is going to spend a lot of resources building a colony specifically to place beyond their own control. Also, that's only about ten human generations, so the genetic engineering to create viable colonists with zero-gee and radiation tolerance will probably take at least that long to develop into a population big enough for viable long-term colonies.
Your estimate is implicitly assuming pre-industrial growth levels. A single self-replicator for example will wreck havoc on it. (Keep in mind that you don't really need lots of people for independence, you just need a big military. Prior to Robotics the only way a small nation can get that is if it begs a larger nation for it. But with advanced Robotics, a big military can be manufactured.)
I love your analogy. Zubrin used the same sort of analogy for Mars colonization. -The ships that brought the first settlers to the new world, were ships designed to sail around the Mediterranean. _After_ the colonies were established, they started designing ships to cross the Atlantic His point was that we could have started a Mars colony in the '70s or '80s, with Saturn V's and existing technology. Yes, it would have Bern hardcore and risky, -but much less risky than what every single generation of humans has endured for thousands of generations. It ain't a lack of technology keeping us from colonizing the red planet. It's a lack of cajones.
Hey Isaac. Could you use a solar system sized "gauss rifle" type of ringed orbitals in a kind of spiral formation to accelerate ships fast enough to make long distance journeys without acceleration being too fast as to harm life on board?
30:48 Elated you watched _Planetes_ at last! Hope it was well worth your time! Not gonna lie, I've been hoping you'd check it out for a good five years now, especially after the Space Debris episodes :D All the best, as always!
There was a David Brin book about a guy who worked collecting space junk. I've often that instead of burning up boosters and space stations, send them to L4 where a space based Sanford and Sons recycles metals, solar panels and electronics
I wonder if in the future we'll find a more reparable design. If you're 6 months past Mars on your way to asteroid mine, clunky tech that you can fix with easily made stuff (vacuum tubes?) Is easier than limited spares brought with. Junkyards could be useful.
@@lavenderlilacproductionsdefenitly more repairable, but not vacuume tubes. We have other technologies for making computer chips than the silicon processing used currently. For example, we can use stamps to transfer copies of conductive wires or semi conducting material, or phase change materials and just stamp that onto a layer that is resitive. Clunkier, way more labour intesive as each stamp has to be aligned; but also capable of making better chips since you can mix whatever materials are the best for the application. From my understanding thats the tech used to make radiation hardened storage, and its limits currently are a resolution of 25 nm but that could also be offset simular to how we take 490 nm resolutions and just offset them to make 5 nm feautres.
SFIA needs a designated AI assisted artist to replace some of these old, over used clips. Real gorgeous stuff coming out of mid journey and you could make it into videos with other AI programs
Have signed petition. The dangerous and expensive bit of the mission was building and launching it. Stopping doing the planned science now the spacecraft is actually in space is like building skyscraper foundations, and then changing your mind and building a shack on top of them.
The future where the DoT certifies the safety rating of spacesuits like they do on today's motorcycle helmets is one specific bureaucracy stuff I can get hyped on despite the boring paperwork.
The US is sitting on a super volcano that explodes every million years or so. There are several similar current cities, countries and past civilisations. Crashing into a planet in a timeframe longer than humans have even existed seems a strange priority to fix first.
Hey I just wanted to tell you I first heard of Alistair Reynolds on your channel and I've now listened to the entire revelation space series and I'm working on revenger now. Thanks for the excellent recommendation
Awesome video! However, I think you give EM too much credit. His track record to keep his promises is even worse than NASA. However, however, whatever we do in space we need to work on complete automation of the supply chain on earth.
With the whole push towards AGI , we could build AGI robots to help pave the way for humans to colonize space. AI robots can go to the moon or mars and do all the initial setup and help turn those environments into suitable environments for humans to inhabit.
13:30 That's an very interesting way of looking at it. Communication within an empire could often indeed take days and even weeks, yet some of the largest, most advanced, and most prosperous empires existed and flourished before inventions such as the telegram or the internet. Colonization within our own solar system might bring back some of the challenges of those times, but as you said, it only takes around 48 hours for messages to reach Pluto. This is much shorter than the time it would take for, say, a ship from Britain carrying orders to reach New England, or for a horseback messenger to make it from Rome to the frontier of the empire. We should be at least somewhat better off, considering we've had centuries or millennia of societal and technological development since then. Still, it does paint an interesting, if not odd scene in one's head to imagine a setting akin to the Age of Exploration resting underneath the technological marvels of a 22nd-century human society.
Really depends on the resolution you want to print at. The higher the resolution the slower the completion time & the less higher tech helps. For really low resolutions it shouldn't take that long.
what 3d printing tech are you refering too? there are a lot of them. Some that can even exceed the total speed of manufacture by any other means. Although the fastest and most versitile speeds up helium gas and the material to be printed (metals, plastics, or some ceramics) up to super sonic speeds then as they collide they fuse together; but there is an emphisis on the word Helium. That stuffs expensive to just go a little faster
@@AnonymousAnarchist2 Hand tools vs. 3D printers creating large objects. Man vs. Printer. This sounds like a good idea for a new competition-based reality show. There are so many options, such as “who can build a life-sized functioning trebuchet the fastest?”
Your microwave energy transmission satellite stock image has it backwards... its everything around the collector that would be green and a desert under and directly around the panels.. and the little building would be smoldering lol.
Step one: build an orbital ring, used as a telecommunications hub it should generate trillions in revenue Step two: gold rush, one gold/platinum/iridium rich asteroid would be worth quintillions. This would pay off the ring and much more A mad reckless scramble for gold can move entire civilizations, after that its easy sailing could be an interstellar civilization within a few centuries
For clearing space debris, in LEO, grab a chunk, throw it down towards Earth, floating up by that action. In higher orbit, grab a chunk and throw it up, floating down by that action. Repeat.
What? We go through an asteroid belt twice a year that has kilometre sized pieces in it. That is far more dangerous than ourselves to our prolonged existence
Way further than anything else he spoke about, pretty much. Reaching Venus is harder than going outwards to Mars and further. And we know next to nothing about the planet. To get a floating Venus base, you would first need a fully functional orbital industry capable of manufacturing the base in a single piece. Maybe two or three... So, centuries.
@Arrynek01 I don't think it's not possible, I just don't think people would want to do that. We would probably be able to figure out how to colonize Venus pretty quickly, we just have no reason to sink all that money in. There's nothing there (as far as we know)
I'm trying to find your video on Phobos and Deimos. Unfortunately, unlike the old days, I can't just search within your videos specifically. Can you put a link in the description? Or are these future videos?
One thing I've never understood when it comes to mining asteroids for precious metals etc. The reason they are expensive is because they are rare, if they aren't rare, then won't be valuable?
You could build a huge economy between Venus and Mars. Venus has a huge surplus of CO2 and can use it to build an atmosphere on Mars. Freeze it into dry ice and launch it at Mars via orbital massdriver. Just crash them into Mars so it's super cheap a few hundred tons CO2 at a time. It would take centuries but eventually it would be done.
Our view of space debris needs to change. It is an in situ resource to be salvaged into resources for building early LEO infrastructure. It cost tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram to get most of it there, so why just toss it back to burn up in the atmosphere? Catch the junk, melt down the metal and use in orbit to build struts and panels for new LEO stations, habitats, and frames for future orbital solar panels. Waste not, want not.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #1 НАЧАЛО ПУТЕШЕСТВИЯ [Новый сезон] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/380Q7gLWGvk/mqdefault.jpg)
Sign the New Horizons Petition: chng.it/DPQ6cSWGk8
Idea: Resource Storage (from the asteroid belt, for example)
there's really a LOT of it, so yeah
maybe you already did an episode on this, but just in case :)
edit: signed it. It's a shame that they want to cancel such missions. Also a shame that their budget is so frickin low. Space is honestly low-hanging fruit and any nations who don't see this are making the dumbest of blunders.
What important scientific investigations about Kuiper belt can New Horizons still complete?
Would you be interested in doing a video on the Orion's Arm Project?
Done.
Wow, sometimes the drive to show that you made a budget cut (and your opposition didn't) really leads to carving the capacity out of things already paid for, doesn't it? I hope they reconsider, and find more money somewhere.
I hope I live long enough to see us at least put a few colonies on the Moon and Mars
Assuming you are about 30 you will almost certainly see us begin long term/permanent outposts on the moon.
@@dickyboi4956based upon....?
@@dickyboi4956
that's if society doesn't collapse and climate change is adapted to
Colonies probably not.
I have been waiting for that for over 50 years! I do not put much hope for seeing any of that!
Running our space industry from the Moon or Enceladus would be ideal--the biggest hurdle to that is building up the outlay. You pay an enormous cost once--but that enormous cost, if the mission is successful, covers all your space needs for decades, maybe even centuries. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me🙂
Its a dream, it would be stupid to do now, it would cost trillions. Want to cut military spending while Russia and china are building up? Stupid to do now with current tech
Wait another 100 years or so, once we have technology to mine asteroids we can talk about a moonbase, right now it would be a stupid waste of money for almost 0 benefit
Reducing launch costs from $4 Billion/launch (SLS) to $10 million/launch (Starship) is necessary. Increasing launch cadence from once a year (SLS again) to once a day (Starship again) is also needed. Cost per Kg/person & launch cadence will determine what we can do.
Factories on moons have one big disadvantage (if they have no atmosphere).
The only way too release heat is via radiation.
Here has Mars an advantage. It has an atmosphere and can transport heat away.
Oh and before you ask: no, we cannot terraform Mars into an earthlike planet. Mars' gravity is too weak to hold on to lighter gases like watervapor or oxygen iirc.
@@virgolaniakean8001 Couldn't you sink metal stakes deep into the moon in order to use the ground as one massive heatsink of effectively constant temperature (super cold for a tectonicly inactive moon), as is done to heat and cool with ground-source heat pumps? Or is the stone and dust Luna is made out of not thermally conductive enough?
Be better than sending all that money to Ukraine.............
NGL despite the channel focus on futurism, I'm a larger fan of near-term stuff that I might possibly see a small part of before I die.
While I dream about the thought of someday floating in space, the thought of pure oblivion being 5 feet in every direction is pretty diabolical
Gen Z will destroy themselves before then. Millennials have a better chance.
@@stevenhetzel6483 If you wanna have that feeling in the near term just get aboard a small submersible. You don't need to go very deep at all to be in an environment that's completely unsurvivable.
Give me a Single ship, a fusion motor, and a planet to steer by.
First star to the right and straight on till morning?
Submarines are the closest equivalent we have to a large spaceship. We will definitely be talking to those people for ideas
most importantly the small closed cycle reactors they use, are absolutely necessary
The thing about spreading out into the solar system soon is not so much that it protects against near-term threats, but rather that there seems to be a window of opportunity to do it _soon_ -- for protection in the long term -- and we don't know when the window of opportunity may be closed ... by whatever sort of local calamity.
One of the most obvious ones would be the upcoming depletion of fuel resources like coal, gas and oil as it'll make production of steel, plastics, fertilizers, various other chemical industry products and cheap energy(and thus all other metals and alloys beside steel, that relies on coal) order or even several orders of magnitude harder. Even upholding modern tech and standard of living levels would require worldwide planning and cooperation even if we would already have all the tech figured and infrastructure prepared for mass adoption of biofuels, hydrogen and electric powered transportation and fusion power plants.
And that's before we hit climate change and other upcoming crisises that will put us back to 1920's😅
@@TheArklyte
Except we are nowhere near out of coal, gas and oil. We're moving away from them willingly since they are bad for animals and we feel sorry for them.
@@MrNote-lz7lh steel=carbon=coal. Even EAF relies on pig iron already having it. And widespread of EAF was the historical result of hydroelectric power producing stable constant high energy output. Solar and wind won't give that. Not on this planet in this timeline and reality 🤣
And that's the first one on the list I've mentioned. Very long list that has a deadline...
@@MrNote-lz7lhWe are way more than half way through gas and closing in on 50% depletion of coal, cant find the study rn how much oil is left, and remember that we dig this stuff up faster and faster. Before it's all fully replenished, statistically we would have 1-2 another mass extinctions unrelated to climate change. I'm not sure if you're trying to downplay this stuff on purpose or what, but we are not "sorry for the animals", it's a potential apocalypse in the making, slow and steady but still, we will really feel it 2 generations after it's too late to even do anything about it. We don't have to panic YET, but without decisive action now, we will have to panic later.
@@TheArklyte - Indeed, or one can imagine the collapse of institutions, economies -- via strategic nuclear exchanges, or extreme cultural and political balkanization, or AGI misadventures, or who knows what.
“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.”
-Douglas Adams
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@@aishalotter9995 yes, that's the answer, but what's the question?
You mentioned one of my alltime favourite shows - Planetes.
You casted a smile on my face, spacewizzard.
I am 64 and hope to see a Lunar colony at minimum, preferably a Mars colony as well. But, I would really like to see a manned mission land on a astroid or two before I go. Not likely I know but one can hope. Thank you and be safe.
I guess we'll be able to see science outposts like the ISS on the moon and mars in the next 10-50 years.
Maybe even some military bases or hotels for the ultra rich.
But not a real colony... There is just nothing of value that needs a few hundred humans to mine or do it.
"Space, the final frontier. These are the voyages of..."
"This is Tosche Station's tower control, your docking request is denied."
"COME ON!"
Yet another wonderfully upbeat and informed video on our potential future.
I hope I live long enough to see this and more become a reality.
Fantastic work Isaac.
Speaking of redirecting asteroids, my mother actually worked on the DART program, when we redirected that asteroid last year
One thing that is commonly ignored in the discussion of sourcing rocket fuel in space, is that the metals from regalith can also be used to make high performance solid rocket fuel. Powdered aluminum was used in the Space Shuttle solid rocket boosters, and the modern SLS solid rocket boosters. Lunar regalith is ~8-10% aluminum by weight, so this is an easily accessible fuel anywhere on the surface.
That would make its sharp edges an advantage -- sharp edges support oxidation and encourage sparks better than smooth.
I think you are referring to a different comment? This seems out of context here.@@friendlyone2706
i so enjoying watching your videos, me and a few of my friends watch you then sit and talk about them. thank you for all that you do
I do believe that the fear of losing control over people is the main reason why we are not colonizing our near space yet.
It would be a matter of time until any colony would want independency and large powers hate independency.
With communists Dark Age: 1 million people in space by 3300
Without communist dark age: 1 million people in space by 2300
@@cosmictreason2242 Without the CIA murdering JFK: 1 million people in space by 2090
@@cosmictreason2242If the USSR had competent leadership: 1 million by 2070
The one real reason is that it's super expensive for no return on investment in the near future. There's no raw material that would be economically viable if you had to go to the Moon to get it. Tourism can be developed much more cheaply and easily than by building a space hotel.
There's really no incentive whatsoever to build a colony now. No, I don't count making a few nerds happy a multi-trillion dollar worthy incentive.
@@General12th That's what I meant by fear of losing control.
Wasting money is something all governments are very good at doing, but wasting money to create a rebel nation, that is something they want to avoid.
We want a wild west situation but it would never be allowed.
Isaac surrounds himself with people that love space and that is great! But simply saying space is extremely popular among the general public is not accurate as he does early in this piece. I wish Isaac would do more of a deep dive into the history of space exploration funding as it relates to things like near term colonization and exploration. I know this channel prides itself in it's futurism but grounding itself in the history of humanity moving to space will only let the channel fly to new heights. Maybe that would be more of a Nebula exclusive but I regard it more as a public service type of content than futurism speculation and would fit well in the public space of UA-cam.
This came out just in time for the early release version of Starfield! I pre-ordered it so I can play it September 1. It is quite interesting living in a time where we are seeing the very beginnings of early space colonization with programs like Artemis and also seeing the kinds of things people imagine our future in space can be like. Excited either way!
yep, same, get to pay in 4 hours! topic is fitting for the starfield setting.
"..keep busts of Robespierre and Saint Just in their offices..." Good line! That caught me off guard
I just signed the petition. Thank you for bringing awareness to what New Horizons is facing. Hoping for the best and new science!
I love these videos. Keeps me from losing hope
Y'know, you're right & that outta be acknowledged.. thank you Isaac & Aces (in optimal places). 🌟
Venus also has all that heat in the atmosphere as a power source.
That is a strong tempeture differencial. Heat engine, thermo-electric coupling, heck, a blimp that is painted white, a tube hanging from it, its out side is isolative, the inside conducts heat to the blimp, heat inside cools, sinks, thus drives a turbine.
The Bonus? This makes the cooling aspect of terraforming pay for itself.
Notification squad!!
🥳 Whoop whoop!!
Thanks Isaac, for such a realistic perspective drawn out in this episode. We need spaceship yards and the likes, not terraformed third grade planets
"Realistic" LOL.
I have to remind you that there were a whole series of robot landers that soft-landed on the Lunar surface well before humans did. The first was the Soviet lander Luna 9, which returned pictures (leading to a bit of a political row between the USSR, which sent the probe, and the UK, which had one of the few receiving stations capable of recovering the returned data, causing the USSR to claim the data was stolen when the UK published the pictures first). This was followed by multiple US Surveyor missions, as well as further Soviet Luna missions that soft landed.
It is extremely unlikely that there will ever be any body where humans land that isn't first scouted by robot landers. The information these return about the environment is far to important for risk control of human landings to not get.
The manned lunar landing tends to overshadow those earlier probes in most Americans' minds. (I also forgot about them until reading your comment.)
I think part of it is that the US probes were a little less hyped, because they weren't first and because Soviet achievements were (and often still are) ignored or downplayed in the US for political reasons. Another part is that manned missions tend to be more exciting for the average person.
It's good to remember that space exploration is hard enough that we don't want to throw things into the complete unknown. We take remote measurements before sending probes and we send automated probes before we send people.
yeah, I thought about those too, but I wasn't sure what the timeline on them was again.
But, I guess you are right. Earth is, and will probably be forever, the only body any human was ever on, where a robot wasn't on before.
I didn't forget them I just don't consider them robotic rovers, and the first that really merits the title of robot, Lunokhod 1, was in 1970. That doesn't mean getting a camera down there before Armstrong set foot on isn't an accomplishment, but the context is a device able to go around surveying the place like a human could.
Wasn't luna basically smashed into the ground on purpose?
@@cosmictreason2242 I know the earliest ones were more or less just projectiles hastily chucked at the moon (even covered in explosive panels like reactive tank armour so that at least one panel would get blasted in the opposite direction of the crash and survive with its metal Soviet symbols intact), but I think the later ones were soft-landed, but immobile. The wording threw me too, but I guess Issac was just using a different definition of a robot explorer, since an immobile listening post/weather station is more 'observing' than 'exploring'.
Wow... your videos are probably the most thought provoking on UA-cam.
Thank you for the work you're putting in.
I hope we see videos on all these topics in the future. All of them seem increasingly relevant as space development starts taking off.
SFIA. How many times have I used you to win an argument with my pro ancient astronaut coworkers... Its almost not fair.
😁
For a minute I thought you meant that some of your coworkers were professional ancient astronauts! 🤣
0:07
"- EVERY JOHNNY HAS TO START SOMEWHERE !
- I couldn't agree more"
~ Johnny
"Isaac Arthur. 1 hour ago" is always a welcoming sight.
One of Isaac's best videos in my opinion! Lots of great (and pragmatic) insights on Space Policy in the cost and bureaucracy sections.
I hope this channel grows and stays around a long time. I'm sick with Covid and am having the worst time sleeping. This is fascinating and relaxing enough to distract me from being cranky and ill. ❤
👍
I think a robot rover from USSR was on the moon just before the humans. :)
Not sure if that counts, but we always seem to land robots first.
Lagrange point dust for earth cooling is interesting!
A point that I was tempted to make as well. The non-roving robots also count, unless you want to to discount Surveyor, Viking landers, etc.
A lunar manufacturing facility makes sense. Imagine producing space colony base modules for orbital insertion as an intact colony from lunar orbit, then once complete sending the colony to Mars, Venus, etc. as a finished and fully stocked package. A crew then travels with only that needed for the trip to the colony, to a ready and fully stocked colony facility once the colony is safely in orbit at the destination. This would reduce costs, increase safety, and allow more rapid colonization with larger colony facilities as there would be no issues with launching the entire payload and facility through Earth's atmosphere or gravity well.
Instead of a minimally shielded tiny facility the size of a bus for a crew of a half dozen, we could send facilities with everything required to maintain a sustainable colony for up to 100 or more people including heavy radiation / impact shielding and artificial gravity habitats that include agricultural / hydroponics perhaps even manufacturing capabilities.
One or more of these colony in box facilities could also be placed in Earth orbit as a very profitable space hotel for the rich, an orbital travel hub once orbital planes become the norm for high speed transcontinental travel, or as a replacement for current science / military stations like we have presently.
These could also be tailored to manufacturing micro gravity products, or high G products, for all kinds of applications as well. Though these would likely be more advantageous in locations other than Earth orbit in this case.
A lunar facility WILL pay for itself in the long run for those bold enough to risk the upfront capital investment to build it.
One of the reasons for space colonisation would be people wanting/having to get away from people they dont like.
I think the biggest reason is mining. People colonized the new world with months away from contact back home in order to grow crops and find resources. I think this will be the main reason we do this
@@waspsandwich6548 i have Erik the Red on Greenland, the Mayflower and (in the other direction) the Cossacs in mind.
Yea. I imagine radical transhumanists will try to create space colonies similar to how religious extremists founded colonies in the americas. An orbital habitat is the perfect place for genetic engineers and cyborgs to do experimentation away from the laws of earth.
I can’t blame them. Earth sucks right now, and it will suck for a while.
@@comentedonakeyboard Erik the Red was exiled from Norway and Iceland, so he just kept sailing and found Greenland, so I'm not sure that counts. The Mayflower set sail to avoid religious persecution, and the Cossacks were part of the Russian Army. They were historically nomadic and they continued to conquer out in the east just to have more land and power essentially.
I'm not saying this to start an argument (even though it very much seems like that lol), but moreso am just trying to demonstrate how drastic those measures were. Such things probably wouldn't happen in quite the same way in our time as they did way back when.
I just don't think getting away from people/entities that they dislike would be such a driver of insanely expensive operations or we shouldn't rely on that anyhow.
I don't even know why I'm replying lol there's no point in saying why or why not people would go. As long as they go I'm (and probably you're) happy enough so sorry for making you read all that XD
Oh I love the audio level being a little bit lower! Thank you so much
Looking forward to all of our Lagrange points filling up with O'Neill cylinders.
Planetes is so good, I'm glad you finally watched it.
I'd like to make a topic recommendation.
When discussing solar sails too many people don't understand orbital mechanics and how one transfers between orbits and bodies.
They seem to think that solar sails can only be used to accelerate away from the sun, or other source of light, when really they are used to increase, *_OR DECREASE,_* orbital velocity depending on which direction the light is reflected.
If the light is reflected forward in the direction of orbital motion the sail will slow down the craft's orbital velocity moving it's orbit inward closer to the sun. Reflected backward it would increase orbital velocity moving it's orbit outward.
This is how all movement within a gravity well works until one reaches escape velocity.
I think if you could cover this, even if just a short aside within another topic, it would clear up some confusion for many.
i think he does cover that, but i dont remember what episode
And entire episode dedicated to solar sails and solar moths would be fantastic though.
11:25; 'Nobody wants fifty (50!) different space agencies...' Given the vastness of the local stellar neighborhood and everything... that would seem very impractical, yet likely probable. ❤
One of my favorite things about the Battletech Universe is that it points out the reality that once we are not limited to one let alone dozens of garden worlds we are much more likely to wage war on ourselves. After all there is always another planet even if we nuke this particular one to a cinder.
Dubious. You don't go to war with anyone far away, you go to war with your neighbors or direct expansion threats
@@cosmictreason2242 In that universe systems are only two to three weeks travel from each other with most of that time riding from planet to jump point in a torchship. Some systems can be leapfrogged as ships can jump 30 or so LY at a time; however you generally travel from star to star do to power and navigation constraints. The settled area of space is roughly 550 LY across with about 2200 inhabited worlds.
22:00 Small correction: there were robots on the moon before humans. The Lunokhod missions.
Thank you for the Williamson story reference; this is why I love your work!
Therapist: Man with a every single accent spoken at once doesn't exist.
Isaac Arthur:
WWII UK Sunderlands will serve as optimal ergonomic layouts for Light Space Ships; US Catalinas for even lighter ones; standard Mustang and Mosquito seats for one and two person ships.
You have the best accent ever, makes the videos genuinely better.
I had a thought about near term space that might be very soon. -If that Space Hotel or something similar gets built, shooting sceens for movies in real zero-g would be awesome. And those guys already pay stupid amounts of money to shoot scenes.
Thank you for the macro views of our exciting future ❤
It's my pleasure
This is far more interesting to me than all the pie-in-the-sky stuff. This is real.
"Have Space Suit, Will Travel!" My favorite topic referenced by one of my favorite sci-fi novels of all time.
Those first colonists on the Moon or Mars will have to be absolutely fearless.
1492 to 1776 - almost 300 years - seems like a reasonable estimate for the amount of time before independent nations start emerging from space colonies. The key insight here is that no nation is going to spend a lot of resources building a colony specifically to place beyond their own control. Also, that's only about ten human generations, so the genetic engineering to create viable colonists with zero-gee and radiation tolerance will probably take at least that long to develop into a population big enough for viable long-term colonies.
Your estimate is implicitly assuming pre-industrial growth levels. A single self-replicator for example will wreck havoc on it.
(Keep in mind that you don't really need lots of people for independence, you just need a big military. Prior to Robotics the only way a small nation can get that is if it begs a larger nation for it. But with advanced Robotics, a big military can be manufactured.)
I love your analogy. Zubrin used the same sort of analogy for Mars colonization. -The ships that brought the first settlers to the new world, were ships designed to sail around the Mediterranean. _After_ the colonies were established, they started designing ships to cross the Atlantic
His point was that we could have started a Mars colony in the '70s or '80s, with Saturn V's and existing technology. Yes, it would have Bern hardcore and risky, -but much less risky than what every single generation of humans has endured for thousands of generations.
It ain't a lack of technology keeping us from colonizing the red planet. It's a lack of cajones.
Hey Isaac. Could you use a solar system sized "gauss rifle" type of ringed orbitals in a kind of spiral formation to accelerate ships fast enough to make long distance journeys without acceleration being too fast as to harm life on board?
Oregon trail reference made this one an instant classic.
you mentioned PLANETES!!!!! AAAAAAAAAA i love it and i am so glad you know about it!!!!!
30:48
Elated you watched _Planetes_ at last! Hope it was well worth your time! Not gonna lie, I've been hoping you'd check it out for a good five years now, especially after the Space Debris episodes :D
All the best, as always!
Always looking forward to your content. Great stuff.
If you get a chance, read the Manga of Planetes too. It is far less silly and more focused on hard sci fi.
There was a David Brin book about a guy who worked collecting space junk. I've often that instead of burning up boosters and space stations, send them to L4 where a space based Sanford and Sons recycles metals, solar panels and electronics
I wonder if in the future we'll find a more reparable design. If you're 6 months past Mars on your way to asteroid mine, clunky tech that you can fix with easily made stuff (vacuum tubes?) Is easier than limited spares brought with. Junkyards could be useful.
@@lavenderlilacproductionsdefenitly more repairable, but not vacuume tubes.
We have other technologies for making computer chips than the silicon processing used currently. For example, we can use stamps to transfer copies of conductive wires or semi conducting material, or phase change materials and just stamp that onto a layer that is resitive.
Clunkier, way more labour intesive as each stamp has to be aligned; but also capable of making better chips since you can mix whatever materials are the best for the application.
From my understanding thats the tech used to make radiation hardened storage, and its limits currently are a resolution of 25 nm but that could also be offset simular to how we take 490 nm resolutions and just offset them to make 5 nm feautres.
When the big meteor hits, you ain't gonna worry about any of this.
You make awesome videos, Man
This subject is pure gold : )
Aw man all those topics are awesome. I hope they all get done
Part of the first hundred peeps to view this video! Thanks for all the fun Arthur!
Guten aber stressig
It's a sad day when you've watched so much SFIA that the you can imagine all of the videos the poll offers.
SFIA needs a designated AI assisted artist to replace some of these old, over used clips. Real gorgeous stuff coming out of mid journey and you could make it into videos with other AI programs
Topical video for Starfield's upcoming release
Have signed petition. The dangerous and expensive bit of the mission was building and launching it. Stopping doing the planned science now the spacecraft is actually in space is like building skyscraper foundations, and then changing your mind and building a shack on top of them.
The future where the DoT certifies the safety rating of spacesuits like they do on today's motorcycle helmets is one specific bureaucracy stuff I can get hyped on despite the boring paperwork.
Detonating an asteroid at L1 would be pretty silly, if you ask me. At the best, short sighted. Cool idea for an SF story, though.
I was distracted at 24:40 and could have sworn you said it made the grand canyon look like a bitch and was so surprised lol
So happy you watched planetes. Great fun, some anime silliness and respect for the topic.
This is my personal favorite theme music for the show. Ethereal and...otherworldly.
No the best one is upward bound
This one is good though yea
22:25 Phobos's orbit will need to be tweaked a bit first as it's scheduled to crash into Mars in a few million years.
The US is sitting on a super volcano that explodes every million years or so. There are several similar current cities, countries and past civilisations.
Crashing into a planet in a timeframe longer than humans have even existed seems a strange priority to fix first.
Our biggest problem isn't getting TO another planet...it's safely landing and taking off again and getting all the back that's troublesome
Hey I just wanted to tell you I first heard of Alistair Reynolds on your channel and I've now listened to the entire revelation space series and I'm working on revenger now. Thanks for the excellent recommendation
Top author!!! Added bonus he’s Welsh !!!
Awesome video!
However, I think you give EM too much credit. His track record to keep his promises is even worse than NASA.
However, however, whatever we do in space we need to work on complete automation of the supply chain on earth.
With the whole push towards AGI , we could build AGI robots to help pave the way for humans to colonize space. AI robots can go to the moon or mars and do all the initial setup and help turn those environments into suitable environments for humans to inhabit.
13:30
That's an very interesting way of looking at it. Communication within an empire could often indeed take days and even weeks, yet some of the largest, most advanced, and most prosperous empires existed and flourished before inventions such as the telegram or the internet. Colonization within our own solar system might bring back some of the challenges of those times, but as you said, it only takes around 48 hours for messages to reach Pluto. This is much shorter than the time it would take for, say, a ship from Britain carrying orders to reach New England, or for a horseback messenger to make it from Rome to the frontier of the empire. We should be at least somewhat better off, considering we've had centuries or millennia of societal and technological development since then.
Still, it does paint an interesting, if not odd scene in one's head to imagine a setting akin to the Age of Exploration resting underneath the technological marvels of a 22nd-century human society.
Love watching your video from sfia I recommend battle ship yamito engine dub if you haven't had it mentioned before 🎉🎉
Mars could be a major industrial hub for the Outer Solar System, and a stopover point for ships.
Just imagining how long it would take to print a full-sized plastic rocket replica using today’s 3D printing technology
Really depends on the resolution you want to print at. The higher the resolution the slower the completion time & the less higher tech helps. For really low resolutions it shouldn't take that long.
what 3d printing tech are you refering too?
there are a lot of them. Some that can even exceed the total speed of manufacture by any other means.
Although the fastest and most versitile speeds up helium gas and the material to be printed (metals, plastics, or some ceramics) up to super sonic speeds then as they collide they fuse together; but there is an emphisis on the word Helium.
That stuffs expensive to just go a little faster
@@AnonymousAnarchist2 lol the cheap, slow kind
@@MikeJones-yo8en well then ya. lol. that would take ages, but so would building a spacecraft with hand tools.
@@AnonymousAnarchist2 Hand tools vs. 3D printers creating large objects. Man vs. Printer. This sounds like a good idea for a new competition-based reality show. There are so many options, such as “who can build a life-sized functioning trebuchet the fastest?”
Your microwave energy transmission satellite stock image has it backwards... its everything around the collector that would be green and a desert under and directly around the panels.. and the little building would be smoldering lol.
Fascinating. Thank you. 😊
Step one: build an orbital ring, used as a telecommunications hub it should generate trillions in revenue
Step two: gold rush, one gold/platinum/iridium rich asteroid would be worth quintillions. This would pay off the ring and much more
A mad reckless scramble for gold can move entire civilizations, after that its easy sailing
could be an interstellar civilization within a few centuries
Awesome. was about to sleep but Now I Ain't. This Look Interesting!
"Mars' tiny little excuses for moons"
(That's hurtful! 8-P)
So you're saying we need to stop Big Telescope, make space lawyers
For clearing space debris, in LEO, grab a chunk, throw it down towards Earth, floating up by that action. In higher orbit, grab a chunk and throw it up, floating down by that action. Repeat.
i gotta say i never expected to get an anime recommendation from this channel lmao
Where do you get all these beautiful space videos?
What? We go through an asteroid belt twice a year that has kilometre sized pieces in it.
That is far more dangerous than ourselves to our prolonged existence
14:54 That's a mine about to be stepped on?
Great episode
I wonder how far away would a Venus cloud colony
Way further than anything else he spoke about, pretty much.
Reaching Venus is harder than going outwards to Mars and further. And we know next to nothing about the planet.
To get a floating Venus base, you would first need a fully functional orbital industry capable of manufacturing the base in a single piece. Maybe two or three...
So, centuries.
@Arrynek01 I don't think it's not possible, I just don't think people would want to do that. We would probably be able to figure out how to colonize Venus pretty quickly, we just have no reason to sink all that money in. There's nothing there (as far as we know)
I'm trying to find your video on Phobos and Deimos. Unfortunately, unlike the old days, I can't just search within your videos specifically. Can you put a link in the description? Or are these future videos?
One thing I've never understood when it comes to mining asteroids for precious metals etc. The reason they are expensive is because they are rare, if they aren't rare, then won't be valuable?
You could build a huge economy between Venus and Mars. Venus has a huge surplus of CO2 and can use it to build an atmosphere on Mars. Freeze it into dry ice and launch it at Mars via orbital massdriver. Just crash them into Mars so it's super cheap a few hundred tons CO2 at a time. It would take centuries but eventually it would be done.
I have come to love Isaac Arthurs humor. lol
Our view of space debris needs to change. It is an in situ resource to be salvaged into resources for building early LEO infrastructure. It cost tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram to get most of it there, so why just toss it back to burn up in the atmosphere? Catch the junk, melt down the metal and use in orbit to build struts and panels for new LEO stations, habitats, and frames for future orbital solar panels. Waste not, want not.
That's so expensive though. It's way to cheaper to just throw it away and make new stuff