BIG TESLA 4680 Battery Production MILESTONE Revealed!
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- Опубліковано 10 чер 2024
- In this video I discuss Tesla’s latest 4680 update and what it reveals about their battery production progress.
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4680 shows how hard going from spoon levels of production to giga scale automated production.
DBE is definitely a greater challenge than anyone expected.
A graph would have been nice
There is no need to be disappointed in the ramp as Tesla has stated they are ramping the batteries slightly ahead of the Cybertruck ramp. They don’t want battery inventory sitting around. As the truck ramps(the truck is the limiting factor) the batteries will ramp.
true. producing too many causes storage problems and has money tied up in product that isn't turning over.
Yes, but this was also supposed to be a a big part of the model y being a structure pack.
They stopped making those. I'm assuming to focus on cybertruck
Originally the 4680 cell was to be part of CT, MY and the Tesla Semi, it appears they have refactored production lines for MY and Semi to use other form factors. Does anyone have any information regarding DBE cathode production. I think that bit of technology has been harder to produce at volume than originally anticipated.
Tesla only made 100 GWH of batteries last year. That is enough for 1.3 million model 3/Y long range. But they sold 1.8 million cars + X number of power walls and X number of mega packs and X number of semis. Tesla is currently only making half of the batteries that they need. It would behoove them to double their 4680 production if they can make them as cheap as importing Chinese batteries. And that is the crux of the issue: they can’t make 4680 batteries at a competitive price.
That's why new battery factory with CATL is crucial. Global EV demands dropped causing the battery price to tank.
Tesla already stated they will get as much battery as possible because energy sector is growing rapidly
0:06 John, I love how you sort your books by colour like a true OCD person 😊
(when battery prices are low they would ramp down, when battery prices are high they would ramp up )
I feel that battery hurdles once overcome will ramp faster
Thank you
Looks like we’re entering the steep part of the S curve then. Cool stuff.
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Yes. Important to do this production analysis.
Some more insight.
LG anode rolls have been seen near the cell can test production waste bins.
With Drew gone, Tesla is making every effort to lift cell production including buy anode and cathode rolls from LG.
The removal of some access platforms from the north end says Tesla has finished making structural alterations inside the battery corner of giga Austin. This should mean they are well on the way to setting up equipment for the Phase 2 cell lines.
The waste bins of cell cans outside the factory speaks to trial runs of cell cans with new equipment. If LG can back up Tesla production of Lithium, Cathode and electrode rolls, cell production should reach 2024 year end target.
Hopefully, CT foundation series ends soon, and we get high production of the normal versions at $79,999.
It would be great if MY Juniper suddenly appeared in July at Shanghai, Berlin, Fremont and Austin.
Then on 8/8 focus can shift to the CyberCab.
It would be great if refreshes could appear but as we saw last year, refreshes require shutdowns and this year is not a good time to curtail revenue by shutting down.
Great info - Thanks!
Querry: was tesla able to solve the dry coating process issues (at scale) on both the anode AND cathode sides?
Querry: are numbers available to predict if tesla's production expectations for 4680s will be able to keep up with demand for them (Cybertruck production ramp rate).
2nd largest building at GigaTexas is very quiet with little activity going on. I doubt one will every see large volumes of 4680 cells produced if the North Cathode Plant remains dormant. Perhaps the bottleneck lies in DBE cathodes being reliably produced in volumes to feed their assembly lines?
But they can't get the cost down until they start making their own cathode.
What's the word on that?
My most important questions regarding the 4680:
How has transitioning from an 811 to 955 cell chemistry affected cell capacity?
When will we see the cells in production?
Is there still no Silicone in the anode? Silicone has an energy capacity 10 times what graphite has. An anode comprised of 15% Silicone can have a specific energy density 33% higher than graphite alone. My recollection is that Teslas 2170 used between 5 and 7% Silicone. This allows for a much fast charge rate as well.
Was the lack of Silicone a design choice based on cell longevity or a constraint due to the swelling of batteries in a structural battery system?
I have yet to hear of a DBE cathode being reliably produced in volume. I would rate that hurdle as being a bit more important to solve than alternate battery chemistries.
Once Tesla gets its CATL factory/equipment operational and customers become familiar with the capabilities of CATL's Shenxing LFP tech, the demand for 4680 batteries may significantly shrink. This likely includes the CyberTruck.
That's a lot of assumptions.
Will CATL "Export" Shenxing Plus technology to Tesla?
There is no demand for 4680s outside of Tesla. 4680s are still the path for Tesla to reduce battery costs, not depending on CATL to lower their prices. This isn't complicated.
Ramping this internal capability is going to be critical . Once they get to full mass production they can start experimenting with new chemistries in this format.
4680 Energy Density has improved during the ramp and Battery Chemistry research continues.
I heard they had given up on the 4680s?
When will vendors start supplying 4680 batteries?
When Tesla needs more 4680s they will have more. Right now they go in the Cybertruck and they have all they need.
Panasonic 4680s were approved by Tesla last year. The 4680 yapping will end and I believe you can bet on it.
Given all the investment Tesla has made into the 4680 production capability - it would be sub-optimal to quit this. It would be the last area for full vertical integration.
Quitting ain't in Tesla's vocabulary. Don't fall for the FUD.
@@snookmeister55 Elon himself mentioned that they would stop with the 4680 if it wouldn't be succesful but I think Elon sometimes also mentions these things to put pressure on it internally. I don't think they will quite it. But I also don't think they are in a hurry scaling it because global battery prices went down. If it went further up they would have scaled it quicker. Now it makes sense to optimalise the production efficiencies as battery prices are low and cheaper to buy. When the 4680 will be cheaper to manufacture than it is to buy batteries than they will ramp it more quickly again.
100 gwh by 2021, what were they smoking
Smokin hopium. Better than moaning and whining all the time. Nothing wrong with working hard and remaining optimistic.
@snookmeister55 so do it without making a big horse and pony battery day show. Now it's the definition of overpromise under deliver
@@Cross-xm2fr Which reminds me, what came from VW's "Power Day?" Yes, it would be be an improvement if all automakers would stop their BS.
Are you sorting your background books by color? 😅
yes
ℹ️
I don't understand why you believe they can't hit their 2030 target?
Still 6 years to improve the process and build new factories
When they get it to work, it's copy and paste to build factories
I believe 20 million is slipping out of reach if it is still the goal at all. Years pass rather quickly and Tesla is 10% of the way there.
Lot of assuming going on in this video.
Tesla is losing the race to affordability, and batteries are a significant part of the story.
You must be so tired of talking about the 4680 batteries
This is still terrible and is less than one twentieth of the target production rate. Worse still the power density is simply not competitive. Tesla needs to get 4680 above 300 Wh/kg. Extremely frustrating. The 4680 is killing Tesla’s competitiveness.
Not sure anybody cares about this? You can do a lot better check than this how about some new types of batteries coming online?? 😮
4680 is a total failure. The new CATL batteries will crush 4680 in almost all metrics. Energy density, charging speed, cost….
Yep, irlts pretty much a dud delivering none if any of the benefits promised at Battery Day
Two childish idiots blathering stupid crap about which they know nothing just because they need to spew on UA-cam
I think Tesla will eventually close its battery business.
50 million batteries can not be described unless I am missing something. They never intended to use 4680s to replace their suppliers. Also, what happens to the Lithium Refining Factory at Corpus Christi when you say it will be shut down. Perhaps you are not aware of Corpus Christi plant.
@@viewer_5714- that refinery can supply their battery suppliers. It doesn’t have to go into it’s own batteries and they have stated that as well as a shutdown of 4680 if can’t become cost competitive.