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Who Will Drive Us Once Humans Are Banned from Driving
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- Опубліковано 16 лис 2019
- Human drivers suck at driving and the self-driving technology is just around the corner to help remove the troublemakers ( us, humans ) from wracking up the death toll numbers and hopefully bring them all to zero. Eli Burton from My Tesla Adventure is here to share his thoughts with us on this technology and the concept in his weekly segment Supercharged with Eli Burton!
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It will probably start with "Higher insurance for manual mode"
Yes. It will not be made illegal to drive but the insurance to do so in some circumstances will become unaffordable.
Probably won't ever see this happen. There will always be a need for people to be able to drive their vehicles in many situations. Think about, farms, acreages, large mine sites or or other work places that require short point to point trips, off road locations (hunting, fishing, camping), rural areas, etc, etc. Now inner city or highway driving, sure driverless systems make alot of sense, but there are simply too many instances where autonomous driving just won't work.
Well said
So an "auto-Uber" is going to come out to my farm, pick me up, take me to the feed store and bring me back out to the "boonies" with 500 lbs of chicken feed?
Very interesting thought, good question.
That is exactly the plan. Sounds a bit bizarre now but it will be the knew norm. Rivian is specializing in off roading trucks.
No you order the feed and it just arrives. Why do you have to be involved in the transportation at all?
Of course it will. If you have a monthly subscription that includes 1,000 miles per month, it shouldn’t matter where you live or how far you want to drive. In fact, with a Tesla basic monthly subscription, you should be able to select (using the Tesla Robotaxi App) which Tesla you want to pick up 500 lbs of chicken feed - Model 3, Model Y, Model 2, or the CybrTrk.
I will always want to drive, even if I rarely do, but should have the option.
The people who will most vociferously resist giving up the steering wheel will be the very people who are most dangerous to themselves and others. See it all the time with seniors who can't keep to a lane, yet won't give up their licenses. While human-piloted vehicles are still on the road, the human element in crashes will still be a factor, even though auto-pilot will help minimize the results. Eventually, the reporting on accidents will lay the blame on the human drivers, rather than seek to blame the tech. As you point out, there are savings in road construction, speed of navigation, etc. to be had, too.
Autopilot don't work on snow road.
I want to hear how parents of young kids would handle the robo-uber style transport. Would child car seats still be required? Nobody wants to strap those in and out every ride.
I think the piece of tech that's really missing right now, is the ability for vehicles to talk to each other. Once this is fully implemented, merging will become a perfect smooth flowing dance, and intersections will no longer need lights or stop signs. It will be scary, heading full speed into busy intersections, without being able the "control" the car at all... but it will be a thing of beauty :) Personally, I could envision some no human drivers "zones" in cities, but a very long time before human drivers disappear altogether.
At the end of October Nova did an episode talking about autonomous driving. They said that the difference between level 4 and level 5 was that 4 would be able to do level 5 but only in certain areas at certain times. Currently Navigate on Autopilot (NoA) is only available on all interstates (the roads that start with the letter i and end in a number) and on certain highways.
But I agree that autonomous driving will happen in phases, just like how kids are given a tricycle, switched onto a bike with training wheels, and then allowed to ride bicycles that everyone else rides.
The Nova program stated that the Uber self driving crash was due to the company decided to skip the levels between 2/3 & go all the way to level 5. They decided to disable the factory installed emergency braking system and didn't program the system to alert the driver that she should take over until it was too late. Uber was focused too much on comfort and not disturbing the passengers, which I'm sure the family of the victim who died was not thrilled about.
As somebody with vision loss, I have always depended upon others for transport, and ride share, so in a way? I’m used to being driven around everywhere. Now it seems like the main stream population is catching up to those who have always depended upon what will be these self driving cars.
When that law comes out what will happen to all of the gasoline cars ?
I suppose they are going to force me to sell my antique Falcon to the government.
Autonomous driving doesn't have anything to do with the propulsion system. There are ICE cars with some form of "autopilot" (e.g. Mercedes' "Intelligent Drive") and there are lots of electric cars without it.
@@markbullock3741 Same as horses, people will keep them a hobby but they will not be needed.
@@wermagst news flash, 99.99% of people on this planet don't drive a Mercedes (or a Tesla for that matter). There are 1.3 billion vehicles on this planet, and replacing them all with robot cars is going to take decades. Even if every government forces every last manufacturer in every country to start making self-driving cars overnight (highly unlikely given that only Tesla has anything near self-driving software so far), ordinary people who don't buy new cars would have to wait a decade until they get their hand-me-down car that has the self-driving feature.
Most vehicles on the road will be 100% electric by 2030.
Alex and Eli, I somewhat disagree with your assertion that you will have a choice to have your own vehicles, Here's the thing, you have a place to park. At least I'll say unless you are VERY wealthy, so you can afford the permits to park, you will not drive on a daily basis or more importantly own a vehicle. I'm sure many will spend the money or will keep a liquid fuel car (I'm sure they'll find some carbon neutral fuel they will allow to be burned), and have designated places to drive. I mean, people still have horses. I Love the smell of gas (I drive a Volt), but I love the nostalgia of cars! That being said I look forward to the future of electric and automation.
Not much nostalgia for CRT TV's, flip phones, typewriters, ice box refrigerators or washboard and bucket clothes washing machines or the steam engine, but maybe your right, people will want to waste time, energy and money to drive a clumsy slow and dangerous gas vehicle over an electric self driving one. Maybe this transition will lead to a new type of Amish, that refuse any technology past this current point. Or maybe people will just accept the new tech just before completely taking it for granted, like usual.
Why you never talk about people targeting Tesla’s 3 and breaking into their Model 3? Do you live a built up suburb or a suburban?
Great topic, but I think the future of subscription services for cars will change drastically when autonomous self-driving cars become widely available.
Today the millenniums are buying fewer cars than the previous generations when at the same age. This is due to services like Uber and Lyft. As the population continues moving into the cities this trend will only accelerate. Imagine not having to worry about accidents, insurance, maintenance, charging, parking, traffic, drunk driving, tickets and the cost to buy and own a car - total cost estimated at $12,000 per year. People will stop buying cars because autonomous vehicles (AV) and Transportation as a Service (TaaS) subscriptions will cost between $150 to $200 per month and eventually $100 per 1,000 mile per month. Imagine getting a ride anytime of day or night in any neighborhood. Transportation will become democratized and demonized so that the poor, the elderly, children, and the disabled will be able to go anywhere they want anytime they want affordably. Imagine paying $100/month for transportation compared to $1,000/month to own a car. Most will opt for the cheaper solution and save over $10,000 per year in transportation costs.
The big secret is that when Tesla has an AV robotaxi, they don’t need to sell many cars at all or use the cars of Tesla owners (which may be dirty, contain personal items, and might be less reliable or be more complicated to implement). Tesla could offer the TaaS (the same way Netfix, Spotify and others offer monthly subscription services) for a monthly fee - $150 - $200/month. They can build huge fleets of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) to be use as robotaxis that are owned and operated by Tesla (and Google, Uber, Apple, etc.). They could either buy Uber or build their own Uber app and disrupt the whole ride sharing industry. They could even design their battery packs to be easily replace in 5 or 10 minutes by putting the cars on a lift at an EV service station and replacing the used batteries with a fully charged battery in less time it takes to fill-up a 15 to 17 gallon internal combustion engine (ICE) gas tank and much faster than even the fastest superchargers (thousands of highway gas stations could be converted to EV battery service stations where the spent battery packs could be recharged by a nearby solar or wind farms). This will allow subscribers of TaaS to travel across country without range anxiety and the freedom to stop for a break where they want to instead of where they have to. Subscribers can save their normal car preference in the App but change the type or model of vehicle when they need to - car, SUV, truck, or van (for Tesla - Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, CyberTrk - etc.) - based on what they need to do - weekend trips camping or to the beach etc.
Individual car ownership would continue to plummet because who would want to buy a car (no one buys music or movies on CDs, DVDs, BluRay disks anymore).
“Individual car ownership would continue to plummet” “who would want to buy car”. Euh... there’s car enthusiasts, there’s also car culture. Have you ever heard Ferrari or mustangs? Car ownership won’t go away because there will still people who want to drive.
I was going to comment on Patreon but it wouldn't let me. My opinion is driven by my personal situation so I'll note it quickly. I'm legally blind so anything out of autonomous means ride services. Currently, I use public transport but blindness complicates that too. A pod would give me easier mobility. The pods could take me from where I call it to my final destination like a dial-a-ride service. So having the pod would work for me and others who don't want to be bothered to drive themselves. Now will they eliminate private cars, I think definitely not. What needs to be standardized is level 5 "capability". If Eli's Tesla could autonomously drive in restricted areas, he could use a lower level where safe to continue the joy of driving or his ludicrous mode. Enhanced driver-assist could warn him of problems and if ignored go into autonomous mode. Here people could enjoy driving with a system that requires it be done safely. Adding tech could enhance the driving experience. Imagine someone with an autonomous RV when their desire is to see the country. They can now spend ALL their time as sightseeing passengers and, add a couple drones, they're no longer limited to views from the vehicle. You think about possibilities that would work for you. Spend your travel time with entertainment (Netflix works while not moving, now) or do work while traveling and not waste time.
OK, I was reading the other comments. Some very interesting questions has shown up. So if this does come about, it would have to be over a number of years. They have to figure out how to phase out the gas powered cars in a way that would be acceptable to most people. I my self am getting older and a lot of help in this area might be beneficial to me and others. It is a work in progress in my option.
Tom M - It will happen the same way we moved from vinyl records, to cassette tapes, to the 8-track tapes to CDs, to DVDs, to BluRay, to digital music - or the adoption of cell phones or digital photos. When it comes, it will be rather quick. The transition should be happening by 2025 and completed by 2030.
The price of EVs will soon be cheaper than the internal combustion engine cars but Robotaxi service will become cheaper than owning a car.
Try loading the Uber App on your cell phone to get a better idea how it will work.
OK. The discussion of the Five Levels of Autonomous Vehicular Operation ("Driving" is not an appropriate term to apply here) were going fine, so long as it represented a way for someone to:
1. Start out in the dead of night.
2. Make himself comfortable for a nice long ride negotiating freeways and such.
3. Get a wake-up call at a rest area along the way where he could charge.
4. Finally wake up at his hotel, where he is already checked in because he arranged for an early morning arrival.
But now you're talking about making it unlawful to operate a motor vehicle with manual controls.
Are. You. Kidding?
Shades of Larry Niven and his Tales of Known Space. If ever I knew of a strict authoritarian science-fiction writer, Larry Niven took the prize. He looked for a future in which it would be unlawful to operate any aircraft or spacecraft with manual controls on any civilized planet. That, and even to accept MMA training, this being just as lethal as firearms and subject to outlawing for the same reason.
Now back to the real world. You want us to place ourselves entirely at the disposal of a vehicle that might accept origin and destination commands but will not accept a command to "get me away from this place and/or this person, FAST! Anywhere at all!"
Do you not realize that you have just placed every human being in any city of any size under a type of arrest only one step removed from house arrest?
And as the farmer said: how's he supposed to pick something up? I suppose, though, that you could specify a store as your destination. Then you load your goods, get back into your vehicle, and say, "Home, James," and it drives you home.
But it makes exploration impossible.
Look for the immediate development of a parallel network of privately owned and operated highways that allow people to drive--yes, drive!
And yes, even if I "haven't broken the law," I reserve to myself the freedom to run away.
I think you guys are nuts on this one. Not going to happen in rural areas. I won't comply! I enjoy driving. Any computer can be hacked. Pilotless planes will happen first, if at all.
Good stuff!!! Looking forward to it too!
What happens for the people who can't afford a new self driving car and they outlaw human driving. What are those people supposed to do? How would they be able to get point A to B?
I will say this if someone get a dwi driver license should be tooking away for life
Eli - is it more people or is it that cars are speeding. what is the speeding limit on roads and what is the top speed of cars
To get people to accept Autonomous vehicles you first need to get them to accept enforced speed limited cars. Taking away people's ability to speed will be like taking away guns in the US.
If all cars are autonomous, they will go faster then human drivers could ever hope to handle. It would be the stupid human drivers slowing everything down.
Intresting video!!!
lmao omg that thumbnail pic made me feel so bored and awkward! That feeling you get when sitting in the passenger seat. but this time its unescapable lmao. Driving should not be outlawed. but there should be places that you cannot or should not manually drive like in I Robot. Driving feels like a right lol for me.
ElIBURTON were the car is come to South Afca
In the Uk it is illegal to Use your phone in any way while Driving your Car The usa are so Behind the Trend ?
The UK are communists.
It’s coming... and Tesla is positioned to capitalize on it!
Y E S
If you want to drive then just go to race track.
AI will not get emotional (aka road rage), disobey laws, get drunk, old, distracted, tired, etc.
The faster we can stop humans from driving, the better.
Guns, junk food, cars - kill, kill, kill!
Btw. speaking of killing, when are we gonna electrify all that military stuff?
Don't forget civilian police kill over 1000 people a year in USA, doctors something like 100,000.
@@martialman.4563 Good point. The police we can at least electrify. The doctors - well, at least they're trying to improve...
@@rwess Police kill with lead, so ray-guns would be better? Doctors will be replaced by artificial intelligence soon, less mistakes.
@@martialman.4563 If A.I. can replace doctors, and I think it will, then probably it can replace police too.
@@rwess Technology could enforce law right now but people don't let it. In my town we had redlight cameras years ago but people protested and they were removed. Also speeding cameras, aircraft andlaser detection all illegal in my state.
I welcome this.
A lot alot jobs will be lossed I am not for this at all👎👎👎👎👎🏼👎🏼
After saying something so incredibly stupid, it is time to remove this channel from my feed.