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The whole vintage vs modern debate is so worn out being discussed for years and years. At the end of the day if modern AND vintage are doing good that's awesome for the pokemon community as a whole. I'm glad you're covering both,
@willzaify Well to be fair I did always believe in 1st edition base. However, ya it is surprising to see the other sets and cards move the way they have recently.
@@NostalgiaNomics you said on a live two weeks ago that you wish you got out. Now is your time 😉 I value you. Hope I am not going hard on you. Absolutely look forward to your videos man 🙂
@willzaify No not at all. You're good. The reason I wanted out is because I am trying to build up my inventory again and want the capital for that. I don't want that much money sitting in those slabs as a long term investment right now. Going through some changes right now lol
In the long run Vintage is a no brainer. It's Supply and Demand, which ultimately comes down to rarity within the grading population report. Take the holy grail 1999 Charizard Base Unlimited card for example. This is a card that every collector new or old wants and recognizes as the face of the hobby (it's much more attainable then 1st Ed or Shadowless). This card in a PSA 10 sits at .009% (461 out of 48,649). If you have one of the 461, you will do very well in the long run.
The problem with old vintage is them types of cards are more nostalgic for ppl of my age range however ppl of my age range carnt afford those sorts of prices due to having family & other financial pressures whereas newer vintage & modern are aiming at a generation with abit more cash flow & fewer financial pressures. Awesome video Alex as always 💕
I agree popularity drives most sales in the hobby but look at other card markets that have been around way longer than pokemon (sports cards for example). Rarity drives a lot of high performing cards for players that people have never even heard of and they were seen as rare 50 years into the hobby. Pokemon just hit 25 years. Rarity can make things popular. Short term you are right, but long term (30+ years from now) the rarity will start to matter. Also Gold stars are not that rare compared to some of the end WOTC era holos.
Yes and No. It just so happens that in sports the most popular players of their times are also the most sought after and rare. So yes Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretskyz Micky Mantel rookie cards are outrageous but they were also the most popular. This doesn't mean people are going to go back and collect pokemon cards that aren't even their first appearance just because they are rare or scarce. That's where I am coming from with that. I understand if we disagree but that's my opinion. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.
I have no doubt rarity can make things popular and will keep the prices of vintage in check BUT people are also accepting the fact they don't have to have the rarest, most expensive, the hardest-to-acquire cards to enjoy and be part of the investing and hobby space. This is the thing that the vintage snobs don't understand. The hobby is big enough for everyone. It's big enough to have a waifu market, alt art market, modern sealed market, specific-pokemon-collecting market. The vintage snobs keep trying to sell the idea or concept that is becoming more and more outdated as time moves on. You also have to realize that TCPI is innovating and has delivered amazing cards like the character rares and art rares which have garnered the attention of modern day collectors and investors. You have to be a lying if you are saying those cards are ugly, not worth collecting or not investable. 20 years from now people will talk about the cards of today like they talked about the cards from the beginning of this hobby.
Vintage will always be more valuable just because there were only 100,000 of every cars as opposed to 200,000 and half of that got shoved in our pockets and ruined
I know there was a ton of focus on charizard here, but like HG SS prime cards are INSANELY cheap .psa 9s for like 50 bucks and we are talking nostalgic pokemon, celebi, typhlosion etc.... Theres opportunity everywhere, you just gotta trust your gut - enough people will slowly work there way back IMO
older rarer minter is a means of downside protection and is much more quantifiable compared to popularity/demand where there is alot more fluctation in terms of both price and whats 'popular'
The older rarer minter better thing is weird because imo older and minter all really just make it rarer if something is old and mint it is more rare because old things tend to be in worse condition If you’re talking popularity vs rarity well the most expensive cards are ideally gonna be cards that are both rare and popular like most people know what an illustrator pikachu but it’s also really rare hence the price tag The thing is When something is expensive, it’s generally either really popular or rare. (Because if it’s popular then higher demand and if it’s rare then maybe demand is lower but so is supply so hence it becomes expensive) The difference is that rare things also have the chance to become popular on top of being rare. Then the price absolutely explodes. That’s what happened to a lot of the Japanese market, especially that extra battle day Lillie where it was already a pretty rare prize card then suddenly people decided they really liked Lillie and look at the price now. Supply is relative to demand. Maybe there are 100k people who like a card with 10k copies and only 10k people that like a card with 1k copies but the price is gonna be similar because the relative demand is similar. The difference is that if for whatever reason there is suddenly a spike in demand for that card with only 1k copies vs a spike in demand for a card with 10k copies, that 1k copy card is probably gonna be more expensive because there’s 10 times less the actual amount of copies to go around. I do agree though that not everything rare will be expensive though. A lot of old Japanese promos are still relatively cheap because nobody cares about them, but then again ofc if a lot of people ejd up caring then the price will spike. Imo you have to invest ideally in something that is both rare but also somewhat cool looking or collectable so in the future people actually have a chance of looking at the card and being like ooh that looks sorta cool I sorta want that. It’s basically what happened to all of the Japanese market, people suddenly decided that Japanese cards especially some of the older eras because of their better quality and amazing texturing and art were worth having in their collection, but because Japanese print runs are and were (or at least use to be, now they’re printed to demand) smaller than English ones, the rarity made the prices go insane when they became popular. There is this Magearna FA Japanese promo that is pretty old and rare and pretty affordable rn but imo it looks super cool and it has potential because it’s something that people might look at and think ooh I actually want this in my collection. A lot of stuff like random gym battle promos are rare to some extent, but they imo are just ugly and not really that collectable, so the chances of them increasing in demand and hence price are a lot lower. A lot of semi modern Japanese promos have been increasing in price recently like all night party and that one promo with pikachu on ash’s shoulder because they’re somewhat rare and even though they’re more common than the usual older gym promos in high grades people actually care about collecting them, due to their nice fancy holofoiling and modern art being better than older art. Also if something is obscenely rare it’s unlikely the price of it will pretty much ever go down because assuming the hobby keeps growing, the demand can only ever increase while the supply remains the same. Unless people lose interest in the card but that’s also unlikely because generally people are not satisfied unless they get what they want I’m sure we all have that gaping hole of wanting that one item that is just way too expensive it’s not really like that’s gonna just go away unless Pokémon does something stupid and gee I hope magic 30 never happens to Pokémon. I think though you should present more fair evidence. Popularity is good to invest in but even though modern stuff like alternate arts are popular pretty much almost every single alternate art, trainer gallery, modern chase cards have gone down simply due to the constantly increasing supply of people opening boxes. Look at celebrations singles, or singles of any modern set. So it’s not like popularity = profit always either. I see a lot of people misinterpreting your videos and telling people to invest in stuff like galarian gallery mewtwo but really imo with how much crown zenith is printed there is just no way that card can go up in price. If you invest in booster boxes you’re somewhat investing in rarity too, because the sealed box “population” can only ever go down as people open more boxes Anyways that’s all I have to say. Sorry for the long block of text lol.
Thanks for taking the time to leave this feedback. The main point I was trying to get across was just there is no rule that works. Every card and set stands on its own and to say older rarer minter better or rely solely on pop reports doesn't work. That's all.
Think the economy and prices have a lot to do with it too. A lot of people don't have the extra $1,500 for a vintage PSA 9 when you can get a sick looking modern PSA 9 for as low as like 15 bucks.
throwing my 2c in like usual... older, rarer, minter etc is a protection against loss, always has been. You are absolutely right in saying that popularity drives impressive growth, and is a massively important factor, but the problem that can arise with cards which rise quickly due to an increase in popularity is that popularity can wane. You kinda show it yourself in this video. Charizard has lost some popularity, so its dropped. But not 50, 60, 70% like some modern cards do when they get thrown to the side, because its still decently scarce. Hidden fates shinies went are down 70% because they lost popularity. Amazing Rares, down 80%. Imagine (and im not saying this will happen) if people suddenly decided moonbreon was actually a god awful card. There is so much supply it'd be down 80% in a few months. Older/rarer etc etc are *less likely* to drop so much because there are less sellers to dump onto the market. Also, FWIW, the 1st edition PSA 9 base that you showed off in this video absolutely fit into the 'older rarer minter better' category that the people you seem to dislike so much 'pump' all the time. Fully agree with a lot of the points made here, especially great analysis mentioning that people are going back to relatively affordable nostalgic wotc options, but just saying rarity doesnt matter because a few examples havent moved or have dropped a little, i don't agree with
Yes and No. 1st editon base, jungle fossil are different. Yes they fit the description but it was also one of the most popular times in the hobby and where everyone my age NATURALLY went back to with no pumping needed. If older rares minter better worked why are all of the later WOTC and Mid Era cards falling or stagnate while rest of the market is rising? It's because they don't have true popularity and demand now that the vintage hype channels have started to fade. I appreciate your thoughts though.
rarity will always matter, in the end it's simple maths and *only two* factors are relevant: rarity x popularity = value. low rarity cards need high popularity to match high rarity low popularity cards. and only one of those 2 things can go down, popularity, never rarity (for out of print / vintage cards)
I agree with you. In a hobby that is suppose to be here for the long long term, rarity will start to matter more and more as low pop items will become non existent as time goes on. Just look at other tcg markets that have been around for a while. Sports cards combat this with numbered cards, which I hope pokemon will never do
no one has to agree or disagree anything here, those are just facts 😂 I just translated supply & demand for pokemon, and I hope no one wants to argue about that, how every market has been working for decades 😂 This channel is more on the demand side, smpratte is more on the supply side. in the end, we need both, pretty simple. the only thing that's debatable is which is more important, supply or demand. Personally, I'd say: *Rarity* for safe investments and steady growth = the "standard investor" *Popularity* for fast and big growth potential but timing the market is important = the "professional daytrader"
@@NostalgiaNomics nearly every VMAX card released in the last year is DOWN... not sure what data you're looking at. Deoxys crown zenith, DOWN, calyrex astral radiance, DOWN, mimukyu VMAX brilliant stars, DOWN. every single VMAX card is down lol . . . are you judging like the 3 cards that are actually going up as all of modern ? im curious, what cards released in the last year are actually going up? and do you think i cant name 1:1 a vintage card that went up more % ?
@DC-pj6gc oooo so you talking sets that are mostly still in print, still in rotation? Well sure. But XY, SM, some early SWSH mostly moving up across the board. Those sets you mentioned will too by the next year or 2. We can revisit this comment then! That's like saying SV Base and Paldea Evolved aren't up lol. You have to give things at least 2 to 3 years to age.
i really enjoy your content, but that attempt to show the mewtwo gold star is trending down is a reach at best. there’s not enough variance in the sales or enough sales volume to determine ANYTHING.
@CostcoFries Gotcha. When you do just look at what each one sells for at what grades you are assuming like PSA 7, 8, 9. And then see if it is enough premium worth grading or just selling raw.
I have to admit that I was turned off by your content at first because of the openly confrontational way about your videos. But, after watching more of your content, I found out a couple things to be true. 1. You base your arguments on facts. 2. You're not afraid to call out others, which helps others who may be influenced by false narratives. Anyway, I actually love your content now, and look forward to watching/listening to your videos when you release them. Take care!
Vintage sales are rough. Took me 2-3 weeks to sell PSA 9 dark Charizard, Blastoise, shining magikarp and others. All 1st edition. All posted lowest across eBay, FB, etc. not a lot of interest as modern :/
Been buying a lot of Xy and Sun and moon Did grab some holon phantom cards but I think the lower tier alt arts are the best deals rn that celebi v too cheap
vintage is too rich for my blood for investing haha. for collecting i prize my primes, light/darks, stars and delta species cards, plus others from the time that may not be as popular like the non-holo sabrina's gengar (one with the moon in the background) or geovoni's nidoking. lots of cool stuff
I grew up collecting base set vintage and as awesome as those cards are... i have no interest to buy hardly any except a few handful. Still enjoy looking at them though. I like other vintsge items besides cards. Like the marbles or BK toys, those i definitely do go back to and have boughten some.
hey man i have a question i have 3 cards coming in it’s rayquaza vmax alt art umbreon v on stairs and slyveon vmax got them super super super cheap should i hold them or sell now
That all depends on what your goals are. Do you need the money to flip more cards or are you looking to invest and tie up those funds long term. After that, just ask yourself if those cards are where you want your money invested or if there is another item, card or place you see performing better. Hope that helps!
how much do you think rayquaza vmax alt art could go up too what’s your best guess cause 260-300 is pretty good right now just tryna see if holding would be way more beneficial i will most likely sell the slyveon vmax and umbreon v since they arent as crazy of cards i don’t see them going up a ton
@jacobtorres7102 Been hearing that since 2015 in XY when I got back in the hobby... Modern sealed Will always rise in value with time and the most popular sought after cards will always have a market.
i don’t know if i should pull the trigger i want these 4 Cards PSA 9 1st Edition Articuno, Zapdos, Dark Raichu & Charizard you think im good long term?
I mean those are cards that will be always be popular. If the vintage market moved as a whole those would definitely go with it. It's just hard to tell if there will be too much supply with not enough demand or not... I don't see them losing a ton of value or anything.
@@NostalgiaNomics Appreciate it, im back into the hobby and want some nostalgia cards im not into the new cards or games etc i still stuck to Vintage Games & Cards 😅 and wanted to get my favorites cards graded and in first edition
@ballaz389 Ya I get it. I mean to collect PSA 9 is a good way to go because they are so much cheaper than 10s so you can get a lot more for a lot less. All those are popular pokemon so not a bad way to go.
Buy an obsidian case for 600-650 or buy a PSA 9 popular Holo for around the same price, and a modern alt 10 around same price, and then you check in on the movement 6 months and a year from now. Would be a cool video. You could also probably backtrack a year and pull the same data but changing markets and all that blah blah
Ya... but not really a good comparison buying a new set at release because sealed doesn't usually move until it ages a bit. Now maybe buying a later SWSH set right now and those other items for the example would be a good comparison!
When you mentioned the PSA cases, if it's either old cert or not, what's that mean? Would a cards graded value be the same in either one or is that just how they are tracked and ordered in their system's records keeping?
So a lot of the collectors believe PSA graded much easier back before the cert numbers starting with 4s. That's the reason you will see the new cert numbers selling for more that the old is because of that. Also, just preference in having the new case as opposed to the old that is a different design and won't fit or look right when stacked together with the new cases. You can always send it in to get recased but that takes time and money.
Great video! recommendation: stop playing the victim of the gatekeeping vintage thing, you may not care but hearing it so much makes it feel like it hurt you or something
You didn't have to tell me crystal Charizard was 🍑 I've been knowing it was 😂 the shining Charizard is starting to slowly lose its luster people are realizing there are alot of them around compared to the gold star version.
I'm on the fence. It doesn't seem to be bottoming and obviously more and more continuously gets opened in box breaks but there is still a high risk getting in the high 4 figure and 5 figure boxes...
“Charizard fatigue is real” yes because people who have no connection to Pokémon came into the boom buying every charizard in the hobby as investments and now they continue to post them for sale because the market is going back to normal which is why you’re seeing “fatigue”. The other cards you pointed out that are doing well are all cards that true collectors who know Pokémon would be searching up to buy. The fact you didn’t think about this point is mind blowing.,Terrible video.
thing is wotc was so overvalued in the pandemic, older rarer minter better is and will always be a safer investment than any modern product. coming from someone who's in the game for over a decade already and I'm collecting modern and vintage, but sure not overhyped wotc stuff.
@@NostalgiaNomics i always said add "popular" to the mantra "older rarer minter better" and you have the secret formula. i just see vintage performing more stable in a few years when we see 10000 PSA10 copies of modern cards vs. pop 100 vintage cards. Demand has to be 100x higher for modern cards to perform as good (100 out of 101 people would need to rather choose a moonbreon over base set charizard for example), and I don't know if this will be the case in the future. however, I see way more potential in modern. more risk, more potential for modern. lower reward, but safer investment with vintage. and btw i also never liked the wotc hypeguys that emerged in the prime time of wotc during the pandemic who shouted "charizard charizard" all the time, now look where they at now, pretty quiet now lol
Do you have an opinion on diamond and pearl/ platinum era sets? Like do you think singles and slabs from a set will ever pop off in the future maybe like tag team haha
Anything is possible. My fear is there are not enough people that will find themselves going back to those cards with so many other options out there. Sun and Moon was a time when many people poured back in to the hobby so the demand for those has a much larger audience.
I just think it comes down to what people want. The sealed product is still very sought after while the holos don't have the appeal the new cards do so without enough demand the rarity and scarcity of the cards aren't enough to carry the value higher.
@@NostalgiaNomics only thing that comes to mind are those looking to collect a holo set in PSA. Some PSA 10’s have astronomical values. I think people would rather pay PSA 9 pricing over opening a heavy Aquapolis/Skyridge/Expediton pack?
The crystal charizard one is crazy. Might be a buy opportunity there? I’m not knowledgeable at all when it comes to that card, but a 50% drop seems extreme. May rebound back up a little.
I enjoy watching your videos because I disagree with a lot of your points and honestly think you learn the most from the people you don't agree with, I think your point that people care more about the first generation of card releases is entirely true but I also think that saying popularity and demand trumps scarcity and rarity is a somewhat flawed way of thinking. I think you are entirely right that demand and popularity can carry a card and easily be enough for a card or product to appreciate in value, however with that being said, no one remembers snap promos, trophy cards etc. from their childhood and certainly there is much less demand for cards of that caliber, yet they are the cards that hold record high prices. I also think its worth mentioning that even though the cards you showed having had gains are definitely popular, they are also extremely rare cards in comparison to your average card, so I think its wrong to say the factor that made those cards rise is just popularity or demand alone, 1st edition holos in those grades are extremely rare and scarce, so are jungle holos in 1st edition high grade. With all that being said I learn a lot from your videos and you make great content.
I really appreciate the honesty but I think we actually agree more than you think. So as far as the snap cards or very high end scarce rare cards, yes. They will always attract the whales. The 1st ed base, jungle, fossil etc may be rare and scarce but the popularity is why they are moving when the other vintage or mid era cards are not in my opinion. Thanks for taking the time to comment. Appreciate hearing your thoughts. If we all agreed on everything that wouldn't be any fun at all lol
Do you think it will continue trend down in price. Seems like all Pokémon and TCG markets dropping and trend is down month over month?? Doesn’t this seem like a “dead cat bounce”. Which happens when a market is down 70% it will bump 20% off lows before dropping another 50-80% from that bump? 📉
I don't think so. Most of the moder. Sealed form SWSH is moving up steadily at 10% to 20% a year. The SV era is starting off slow but so did XY and SM. I don't see any dead car bounce similarities personally...
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The whole vintage vs modern debate is so worn out being discussed for years and years. At the end of the day if modern AND vintage are doing good that's awesome for the pokemon community as a whole. I'm glad you're covering both,
I love how even if it’s not modern you’re willing to talk about good opportunities
Opportunities cna be anywhere in any shape or form!
@NostalgiaNomics bro!!! You said vintage is done.😂 but I appreciate you making a video. You got some respect there haha
@willzaify Well to be fair I did always believe in 1st edition base. However, ya it is surprising to see the other sets and cards move the way they have recently.
@@NostalgiaNomics you said on a live two weeks ago that you wish you got out. Now is your time 😉 I value you. Hope I am not going hard on you. Absolutely look forward to your videos man 🙂
@willzaify No not at all. You're good. The reason I wanted out is because I am trying to build up my inventory again and want the capital for that. I don't want that much money sitting in those slabs as a long term investment right now. Going through some changes right now lol
In the long run Vintage is a no brainer. It's Supply and Demand, which ultimately comes down to rarity within the grading population report. Take the holy grail 1999 Charizard Base Unlimited card for example. This is a card that every collector new or old wants and recognizes as the face of the hobby (it's much more attainable then 1st Ed or Shadowless). This card in a PSA 10 sits at .009% (461 out of 48,649). If you have one of the 461, you will do very well in the long run.
do you think its the same with
PSA 9 1st Edition
Dark Raichu
Dark Charizard
Articuno & Zapdos
(All Holo)
The problem with old vintage is them types of cards are more nostalgic for ppl of my age range however ppl of my age range carnt afford those sorts of prices due to having family & other financial pressures whereas newer vintage & modern are aiming at a generation with abit more cash flow & fewer financial pressures.
Awesome video Alex as always 💕
That's a great point. Very true. Thanks for the feedback!
How dare you talk about vintage. I’m unsubscribing 😂
I knew I would lose at least 1 with this vid 😔
Loving the epic opening mouth thumbnail!
I agree popularity drives most sales in the hobby but look at other card markets that have been around way longer than pokemon (sports cards for example). Rarity drives a lot of high performing cards for players that people have never even heard of and they were seen as rare 50 years into the hobby. Pokemon just hit 25 years. Rarity can make things popular. Short term you are right, but long term (30+ years from now) the rarity will start to matter. Also Gold stars are not that rare compared to some of the end WOTC era holos.
Yes and No. It just so happens that in sports the most popular players of their times are also the most sought after and rare. So yes Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretskyz Micky Mantel rookie cards are outrageous but they were also the most popular. This doesn't mean people are going to go back and collect pokemon cards that aren't even their first appearance just because they are rare or scarce. That's where I am coming from with that. I understand if we disagree but that's my opinion. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.
I have no doubt rarity can make things popular and will keep the prices of vintage in check BUT people are also accepting the fact they don't have to have the rarest, most expensive, the hardest-to-acquire cards to enjoy and be part of the investing and hobby space. This is the thing that the vintage snobs don't understand. The hobby is big enough for everyone. It's big enough to have a waifu market, alt art market, modern sealed market, specific-pokemon-collecting market. The vintage snobs keep trying to sell the idea or concept that is becoming more and more outdated as time moves on.
You also have to realize that TCPI is innovating and has delivered amazing cards like the character rares and art rares which have garnered the attention of modern day collectors and investors. You have to be a lying if you are saying those cards are ugly, not worth collecting or not investable. 20 years from now people will talk about the cards of today like they talked about the cards from the beginning of this hobby.
Vintage will always be more valuable just because there were only 100,000 of every cars as opposed to 200,000 and half of that got shoved in our pockets and ruined
I know there was a ton of focus on charizard here, but like HG SS prime cards are INSANELY cheap .psa 9s for like 50 bucks and we are talking nostalgic pokemon, celebi, typhlosion etc....
Theres opportunity everywhere, you just gotta trust your gut - enough people will slowly work there way back IMO
Good advice as usual Alex. Vintage will always have a place in every collector's portfolio.
Absolutely!
older rarer minter is a means of downside protection and is much more quantifiable compared to popularity/demand where there is alot more fluctation in terms of both price and whats 'popular'
The older rarer minter better thing is weird because imo older and minter all really just make it rarer if something is old and mint it is more rare because old things tend to be in worse condition
If you’re talking popularity vs rarity well the most expensive cards are ideally gonna be cards that are both rare and popular like most people know what an illustrator pikachu but it’s also really rare hence the price tag
The thing is
When something is expensive, it’s generally either really popular or rare. (Because if it’s popular then higher demand and if it’s rare then maybe demand is lower but so is supply so hence it becomes expensive) The difference is that rare things also have the chance to become popular on top of being rare. Then the price absolutely explodes.
That’s what happened to a lot of the Japanese market, especially that extra battle day Lillie where it was already a pretty rare prize card then suddenly people decided they really liked Lillie and look at the price now. Supply is relative to demand. Maybe there are 100k people who like a card with 10k copies and only 10k people that like a card with 1k copies but the price is gonna be similar because the relative demand is similar. The difference is that if for whatever reason there is suddenly a spike in demand for that card with only 1k copies vs a spike in demand for a card with 10k copies, that 1k copy card is probably gonna be more expensive because there’s 10 times less the actual amount of copies to go around.
I do agree though that not everything rare will be expensive though. A lot of old Japanese promos are still relatively cheap because nobody cares about them, but then again ofc if a lot of people ejd up caring then the price will spike. Imo you have to invest ideally in something that is both rare but also somewhat cool looking or collectable so in the future people actually have a chance of looking at the card and being like ooh that looks sorta cool I sorta want that. It’s basically what happened to all of the Japanese market, people suddenly decided that Japanese cards especially some of the older eras because of their better quality and amazing texturing and art were worth having in their collection, but because Japanese print runs are and were (or at least use to be, now they’re printed to demand) smaller than English ones, the rarity made the prices go insane when they became popular. There is this Magearna FA Japanese promo that is pretty old and rare and pretty affordable rn but imo it looks super cool and it has potential because it’s something that people might look at and think ooh I actually want this in my collection. A lot of stuff like random gym battle promos are rare to some extent, but they imo are just ugly and not really that collectable, so the chances of them increasing in demand and hence price are a lot lower. A lot of semi modern Japanese promos have been increasing in price recently like all night party and that one promo with pikachu on ash’s shoulder because they’re somewhat rare and even though they’re more common than the usual older gym promos in high grades people actually care about collecting them, due to their nice fancy holofoiling and modern art being better than older art.
Also if something is obscenely rare it’s unlikely the price of it will pretty much ever go down because assuming the hobby keeps growing, the demand can only ever increase while the supply remains the same. Unless people lose interest in the card but that’s also unlikely because generally people are not satisfied unless they get what they want I’m sure we all have that gaping hole of wanting that one item that is just way too expensive it’s not really like that’s gonna just go away unless Pokémon does something stupid and gee I hope magic 30 never happens to Pokémon.
I think though you should present more fair evidence. Popularity is good to invest in but even though modern stuff like alternate arts are popular pretty much almost every single alternate art, trainer gallery, modern chase cards have gone down simply due to the constantly increasing supply of people opening boxes. Look at celebrations singles, or singles of any modern set. So it’s not like popularity = profit always either. I see a lot of people misinterpreting your videos and telling people to invest in stuff like galarian gallery mewtwo but really imo with how much crown zenith is printed there is just no way that card can go up in price. If you invest in booster boxes you’re somewhat investing in rarity too, because the sealed box “population” can only ever go down as people open more boxes
Anyways that’s all I have to say. Sorry for the long block of text lol.
Thanks for taking the time to leave this feedback. The main point I was trying to get across was just there is no rule that works. Every card and set stands on its own and to say older rarer minter better or rely solely on pop reports doesn't work. That's all.
Think the economy and prices have a lot to do with it too. A lot of people don't have the extra $1,500 for a vintage PSA 9 when you can get a sick looking modern PSA 9 for as low as like 15 bucks.
throwing my 2c in like usual...
older, rarer, minter etc is a protection against loss, always has been. You are absolutely right in saying that popularity drives impressive growth, and is a massively important factor, but the problem that can arise with cards which rise quickly due to an increase in popularity is that popularity can wane. You kinda show it yourself in this video. Charizard has lost some popularity, so its dropped. But not 50, 60, 70% like some modern cards do when they get thrown to the side, because its still decently scarce. Hidden fates shinies went are down 70% because they lost popularity. Amazing Rares, down 80%. Imagine (and im not saying this will happen) if people suddenly decided moonbreon was actually a god awful card. There is so much supply it'd be down 80% in a few months. Older/rarer etc etc are *less likely* to drop so much because there are less sellers to dump onto the market.
Also, FWIW, the 1st edition PSA 9 base that you showed off in this video absolutely fit into the 'older rarer minter better' category that the people you seem to dislike so much 'pump' all the time.
Fully agree with a lot of the points made here, especially great analysis mentioning that people are going back to relatively affordable nostalgic wotc options, but just saying rarity doesnt matter because a few examples havent moved or have dropped a little, i don't agree with
Yes and No. 1st editon base, jungle fossil are different. Yes they fit the description but it was also one of the most popular times in the hobby and where everyone my age NATURALLY went back to with no pumping needed.
If older rares minter better worked why are all of the later WOTC and Mid Era cards falling or stagnate while rest of the market is rising? It's because they don't have true popularity and demand now that the vintage hype channels have started to fade.
I appreciate your thoughts though.
rarity will always matter, in the end it's simple maths and *only two* factors are relevant: rarity x popularity = value.
low rarity cards need high popularity to match high rarity low popularity cards. and only one of those 2 things can go down, popularity, never rarity (for out of print / vintage cards)
I agree with you. In a hobby that is suppose to be here for the long long term, rarity will start to matter more and more as low pop items will become non existent as time goes on. Just look at other tcg markets that have been around for a while. Sports cards combat this with numbered cards, which I hope pokemon will never do
no one has to agree or disagree anything here, those are just facts 😂 I just translated supply & demand for pokemon, and I hope no one wants to argue about that, how every market has been working for decades 😂
This channel is more on the demand side, smpratte is more on the supply side. in the end, we need both, pretty simple. the only thing that's debatable is which is more important, supply or demand.
Personally, I'd say:
*Rarity* for safe investments and steady growth = the "standard investor"
*Popularity* for fast and big growth potential but timing the market is important = the "professional daytrader"
@@ordille23 but yes that comment makes sense
Thanks for calling me before recording to get approval. Cheers
🤣🤣🤣 Appreciate your approval!
End of the day, both vintage and modern will have their up and down phases. Both will always be investible.
i guarantee nearly every card, released in the last year, is down on a 3month ebay sales too lol
You may not want to go look at the TCG Player charts... you wouldn't like what you see...
@@NostalgiaNomics nearly every VMAX card released in the last year is DOWN... not sure what data you're looking at. Deoxys crown zenith, DOWN, calyrex astral radiance, DOWN, mimukyu VMAX brilliant stars, DOWN. every single VMAX card is down lol . . . are you judging like the 3 cards that are actually going up as all of modern ? im curious, what cards released in the last year are actually going up? and do you think i cant name 1:1 a vintage card that went up more % ?
@DC-pj6gc oooo so you talking sets that are mostly still in print, still in rotation? Well sure. But XY, SM, some early SWSH mostly moving up across the board. Those sets you mentioned will too by the next year or 2. We can revisit this comment then!
That's like saying SV Base and Paldea Evolved aren't up lol. You have to give things at least 2 to 3 years to age.
i really enjoy your content, but that attempt to show the mewtwo gold star is trending down is a reach at best. there’s not enough variance in the sales or enough sales volume to determine ANYTHING.
How is base set 2? I have a full holo set from base set 2. All is in NM to VLP. Just curious if I should grade or sell as a raw set or keep holding?
If they are more NM-M it's probably worth it to grade.
@@NostalgiaNomicsthank you sir! I’ll take a closer look at them and decide. I’ve never graded anything before, always been into raw cards.
@CostcoFries Gotcha. When you do just look at what each one sells for at what grades you are assuming like PSA 7, 8, 9. And then see if it is enough premium worth grading or just selling raw.
I have to admit that I was turned off by your content at first because of the openly confrontational way about your videos. But, after watching more of your content, I found out a couple things to be true. 1. You base your arguments on facts. 2. You're not afraid to call out others, which helps others who may be influenced by false narratives. Anyway, I actually love your content now, and look forward to watching/listening to your videos when you release them. Take care!
Thanks a lot. I appreciate you giving me a chance. Happy ro hear you have been enjoying the content!
Thanks brother 💪 great video, as always!
Vintage sales are rough. Took me 2-3 weeks to sell PSA 9 dark Charizard, Blastoise, shining magikarp and others. All 1st edition. All posted lowest across eBay, FB, etc. not a lot of interest as modern :/
You want the mixture of scarcity and demand both are of equal importance in my mind, look at that snap card that sold for a record price…
Been buying a lot of Xy and Sun and moon
Did grab some holon phantom cards but I think the lower tier alt arts are the best deals rn that celebi v too cheap
vintage is too rich for my blood for investing haha. for collecting i prize my primes, light/darks, stars and delta species cards, plus others from the time that may not be as popular like the non-holo sabrina's gengar (one with the moon in the background) or geovoni's nidoking. lots of cool stuff
Love the intro! They're like the mafia. You need to be a made guy or get permission from a made guy. LMAO
That's certainly how it feels lol
Brother you are an absolute boss. This hits just like it needs to. Thank you. 🤙🏼
I grew up collecting base set vintage and as awesome as those cards are... i have no interest to buy hardly any except a few handful. Still enjoy looking at them though. I like other vintsge items besides cards. Like the marbles or BK toys, those i definitely do go back to and have boughten some.
hey man i have a question i have 3 cards coming in it’s rayquaza vmax alt art umbreon v on stairs and slyveon vmax got them super super super cheap should i hold them or sell now
That all depends on what your goals are. Do you need the money to flip more cards or are you looking to invest and tie up those funds long term.
After that, just ask yourself if those cards are where you want your money invested or if there is another item, card or place you see performing better.
Hope that helps!
how much do you think rayquaza vmax alt art could go up too what’s your best guess cause 260-300 is pretty good right now just tryna see if holding would be way more beneficial i will most likely sell the slyveon vmax and umbreon v since they arent as crazy of cards i don’t see them going up a ton
@AaronRoach If I knew what it would go to I would buy some myself haha. Your guess is honestly as good as mine.
older rarer minter better will become true in a couple years when all of the alt arts have 20,000 psa 10's
Not if they still have millions wanting them. 1 million demands for 20k pop still better then 1k demand for a 100 pop. Just sayin...
Difference is vintage is out of print, modern is going to be printed to the ground so everyone will have alt arts of their own
@jacobtorres7102 Been hearing that since 2015 in XY when I got back in the hobby... Modern sealed Will always rise in value with time and the most popular sought after cards will always have a market.
@NostalgiaNomics its hard to agree, seeing sales for modern singles go down with all the over grading and reprints of sets
@@jacobtorres7102 modern singles are getting DESTROYED DAILY yet nostalgia nomics says they are going up lolll . like 3 cards are going up
Bro keep on making video I think ur the next Pokerev Your videos are so Good ngl You earn my sub ❤
Bro! I really appreciate that and thank for for subscribing. That's a crazy compliment!
Great video as always ! :) Cheers for the content
Appreciate it as always too. Thanks!
i don’t know if i should pull the trigger
i want these 4 Cards
PSA 9 1st Edition
Articuno, Zapdos,
Dark Raichu & Charizard
you think im good long term?
I mean those are cards that will be always be popular. If the vintage market moved as a whole those would definitely go with it. It's just hard to tell if there will be too much supply with not enough demand or not... I don't see them losing a ton of value or anything.
@@NostalgiaNomics Appreciate it, im back into the hobby and want some nostalgia cards im not into the new cards or games etc i still stuck to Vintage Games & Cards 😅
and wanted to get my favorites cards graded and in first edition
@ballaz389 Ya I get it. I mean to collect PSA 9 is a good way to go because they are so much cheaper than 10s so you can get a lot more for a lot less. All those are popular pokemon so not a bad way to go.
You gotta get reserved investments on for a live
That would be a good time lol. Didn't even know that guy was still around.
Hopefully vintage, comes back
Is this maybe a sign that a new hype wave for Pokémon is curling up 🧐
🔥 video as always! Would love to hear your opinion on sealed vintage
I keep finding ES etbs at walmart. $40 win!
Buy an obsidian case for 600-650 or buy a PSA 9 popular Holo for around the same price, and a modern alt 10 around same price, and then you check in on the movement 6 months and a year from now. Would be a cool video. You could also probably backtrack a year and pull the same data but changing markets and all that blah blah
Ya... but not really a good comparison buying a new set at release because sealed doesn't usually move until it ages a bit. Now maybe buying a later SWSH set right now and those other items for the example would be a good comparison!
That intro tho 😂
Vintage 🤮. You monster! Modern is the way!
Thank you vintage Cabal! ❤
When you mentioned the PSA cases, if it's either old cert or not, what's that mean? Would a cards graded value be the same in either one or is that just how they are tracked and ordered in their system's records keeping?
So a lot of the collectors believe PSA graded much easier back before the cert numbers starting with 4s. That's the reason you will see the new cert numbers selling for more that the old is because of that. Also, just preference in having the new case as opposed to the old that is a different design and won't fit or look right when stacked together with the new cases. You can always send it in to get recased but that takes time and money.
Im sure people are buying cards or products from themselves to manipulate the prices if they have a ass load laying around 😂
Positive vid! Don't worry I won't tell the Vintage folks. 🤣
No it'd ok. I got permission from the vintage cabal to release this one 🤣
Modern is coming on down... Vintage on the rise... How it should be. 151 may be interesting but should be pretty normal
Nah.... look at swsh, sm and xy. The only modern that is down is the brand new sv era stuff.
Exactly buy them charazards they can only go up. Dam I sold all my vintage slabs for 10x I should have held
Hilarious!
Gold stars undervalued
nice! I may sell some of my vintage during this small bull run
Great video! recommendation: stop playing the victim of the gatekeeping vintage thing, you may not care but hearing it so much makes it feel like it hurt you or something
BRB listing all of my vintage.
🤣
Comments are going to flood with nay sayers.
You didn't have to tell me crystal Charizard was 🍑 I've been knowing it was 😂 the shining Charizard is starting to slowly lose its luster people are realizing there are alot of them around compared to the gold star version.
It was bound to happen, just part of the cycle
keep selling Charizards below value everyone! the old dogs will just buy them up!
What do you think of vintage sealed?
I'm on the fence. It doesn't seem to be bottoming and obviously more and more continuously gets opened in box breaks but there is still a high risk getting in the high 4 figure and 5 figure boxes...
“Charizard fatigue is real” yes because people who have no connection to Pokémon came into the boom buying every charizard in the hobby as investments and now they continue to post them for sale because the market is going back to normal which is why you’re seeing “fatigue”. The other cards you pointed out that are doing well are all cards that true collectors who know Pokémon would be searching up to buy. The fact you didn’t think about this point is mind blowing.,Terrible video.
🤣🤣🤣 ok.
thing is wotc was so overvalued in the pandemic, older rarer minter better is and will always be a safer investment than any modern product. coming from someone who's in the game for over a decade already and I'm collecting modern and vintage, but sure not overhyped wotc stuff.
We will see. Shifts can happen in markets. Popularity and demand can trump scarcity and rarity in certain cases.
@@NostalgiaNomics i always said add "popular" to the mantra "older rarer minter better" and you have the secret formula.
i just see vintage performing more stable in a few years when we see 10000 PSA10 copies of modern cards vs. pop 100 vintage cards. Demand has to be 100x higher for modern cards to perform as good (100 out of 101 people would need to rather choose a moonbreon over base set charizard for example), and I don't know if this will be the case in the future. however, I see way more potential in modern. more risk, more potential for modern. lower reward, but safer investment with vintage.
and btw i also never liked the wotc hypeguys that emerged in the prime time of wotc during the pandemic who shouted "charizard charizard" all the time, now look where they at now, pretty quiet now lol
I don't think the rarity aspect applies as much to set cards.
I was literally trying to buy a first Ed snorlax off dan that he had stickered for $600 at CAC lmao
What you were going to ACTUALLY BUY PALSTIC??? Bruh... 🤣
Do you have an opinion on diamond and pearl/ platinum era sets? Like do you think singles and slabs from a set will ever pop off in the future maybe like tag team haha
Anything is possible. My fear is there are not enough people that will find themselves going back to those cards with so many other options out there. Sun and Moon was a time when many people poured back in to the hobby so the demand for those has a much larger audience.
What do you think of Aquapolis holos PSA 9’s going for sub $150…sealed packs going for $500+? Cheers!
I just think it comes down to what people want. The sealed product is still very sought after while the holos don't have the appeal the new cards do so without enough demand the rarity and scarcity of the cards aren't enough to carry the value higher.
@@NostalgiaNomics only thing that comes to mind are those looking to collect a holo set in PSA. Some PSA 10’s have astronomical values. I think people would rather pay PSA 9 pricing over opening a heavy Aquapolis/Skyridge/Expediton pack?
@retro10rambo Ya as long as enough demand returns to those sets they should eventually rise with the 10s being out of reach.
huge value there
it's like every other set aswell, do you see the psa9/10 crystal lugia sell for $150? chase cards drive the booster prices
The crystal charizard one is crazy. Might be a buy opportunity there? I’m not knowledgeable at all when it comes to that card, but a 50% drop seems extreme. May rebound back up a little.
Probably was a sus auction. Sorry but you can't pick one auction and say "that's the market"
only interested in the psa10 holo version
@@madlad847 nobody asked lol
@@DUKEBLADE do you have one?
@@DUKEBLADE so why bothering me
Lol well this confirmed it. Time to stop buying my vintage and stock up on swsh alt arts
Happy to help lol
Hello, Vintage Cabal? 🤣🤣💀
Alakazam got to you didn't he..
Hmm sponsored by kantoshark then starts pumping vintage 😮
Haha nah. No pumping anything. I literally was pricing out my 1sd ed 9s and got me down a rabbit hole. Didn't realize vintage was moving.
Folks ranked 1 out of 8
I'm one of those ballers.
BUY BUY BUY!
🍿
Thought this was click bait 😂
Its been a year and i cant tell 😂 is this guy serious or trolling
The world may never know.
I enjoy watching your videos because I disagree with a lot of your points and honestly think you learn the most from the people you don't agree with, I think your point that people care more about the first generation of card releases is entirely true but I also think that saying popularity and demand trumps scarcity and rarity is a somewhat flawed way of thinking. I think you are entirely right that demand and popularity can carry a card and easily be enough for a card or product to appreciate in value, however with that being said, no one remembers snap promos, trophy cards etc. from their childhood and certainly there is much less demand for cards of that caliber, yet they are the cards that hold record high prices. I also think its worth mentioning that even though the cards you showed having had gains are definitely popular, they are also extremely rare cards in comparison to your average card, so I think its wrong to say the factor that made those cards rise is just popularity or demand alone, 1st edition holos in those grades are extremely rare and scarce, so are jungle holos in 1st edition high grade.
With all that being said I learn a lot from your videos and you make great content.
I really appreciate the honesty but I think we actually agree more than you think.
So as far as the snap cards or very high end scarce rare cards, yes. They will always attract the whales. The 1st ed base, jungle, fossil etc may be rare and scarce but the popularity is why they are moving when the other vintage or mid era cards are not in my opinion.
Thanks for taking the time to comment. Appreciate hearing your thoughts. If we all agreed on everything that wouldn't be any fun at all lol
Telling people to buy the wall of worries. Im glad you have no followers
I'm not following?
@@NostalgiaNomics google it
Did u buy during the boom too lol 😂
Bro repeated every statement 5 fucking times
😂😂😂😂
Alex Keep vintage name out of your mouth this is a modern sealed channel only......
I know I gotta be careful!
Do you think it will continue trend down in price. Seems like all Pokémon and TCG markets dropping and trend is down month over month?? Doesn’t this seem like a “dead cat bounce”. Which happens when a market is down 70% it will bump 20% off lows before dropping another 50-80% from that bump? 📉
I don't think so. Most of the moder. Sealed form SWSH is moving up steadily at 10% to 20% a year. The SV era is starting off slow but so did XY and SM. I don't see any dead car bounce similarities personally...