How does the rank up gurantee work? Im d2, does it gurantee I reach masters as junglet? Im 100% interested in buying (but im afraid i wont learn much as jg and might waste time)
Those 2.5 quadrillion potential 5v5 stats are kinda mumbo jumbo. Like no one’s gonna pick a comp of all support champs. Realistically, there’s way less. Plus some champs have been pick/ban while others are rarely played at all. It’s like saying there’s some ridiculous amount of “possible” chess moves when in reality there’s only like 4 good moves in a certain position
They literally say their math is flawed... The point was that the game is very complicated and that there's a lot to consider and learn, so learning the theory is more important than the team v team matchup.
The video starts on an out of touch note....in low elo we do see the same champs almost every game. Also most champs are extremely similar and we have spent years playing agaisnt the same similar comps.
You definitely will see the same champions over and over, because even though there are many champions, only a select few are actually popular, and some of them are extremely popular so you will see them very often, such as Darius, Irelia and now Gangplanks or Jax in top.
It is more about the exact same team comp on both sides, same runes, same items etc. For example BLUE team: darius, sylas, vi, lucian and nami RED team: irelia, syndra, kayn, cait and lux. And then imagine seeing those exact same team comps several times. It is very unlikely you will experience that. Yea, there might be champs you will see way more than other champs, but just one champ being different can already change how a team fight could be played out.
Dude loading into an iron match with friends and our fill was a 3mill+ mastery score Yas. My friends were excited. I told them: It’s 3 million in iron. They all went silent. Sure as shit that dude was genuinely the DUMBEST player I have ever seen.
I play both League and Dota, both games have their pros and cons i wont dive into that. But when in League pro play only 20 to 30 % of champion pool is played (and im probably being generous on those 20 30 %) and in Dota 2 over 80 % of champion pool is played, there is clearly a big problem with League balance.
@@jacquegusto4038 Nope dota in total is 75 % of league champs, 121 for dota, 162 for league. Now go back and re-enter 5th to 7th grade math class. Good luck!
@@srnght cry about it , at the end of the day most people are low elo (bronze - silver). why should a company put more priority on 5% of players than the majority of people who actually play the game.
This math is BEYOND deceptive. Considering the top 5 most picked champions in any role make up like 50% of all the picks in that role makes it incredibly more likely youre gonna face the same comps.
and yet, its still not. Considering bans, picks not allowing opposing team to pick that champ, it is still a ridiculously low chance you ever see the same pick/ban phase. Also, people play off meta, the other 50% of picks are not 5 champs. ALSO... ignoring pickban, off meta, and assuming people only play top 5 in a role... its still around a one in 9765625 chance(5 to the power of ten)
What's wrong then? Assuming even chance for every champion to be picked, and 10 champions always banned it leaves us with 152 choose 10 which gives us 1340705736329960 possible sets of picked champions. No champions banned gives us 2584164477130236, so everything checks out.
@anon1963 That's not accounting for champion meta popularity, popularity of specific champs for specific roles and much more. In reality they quadrillion statistic is meaningless. There are hundreds, if not thousands of different brands of soda. But Coca-cola, Pepsi, Sprite, 7-Up, and Moutain Dew dominate the market because of marketing, but also taste preference. I could say that at any given party I go to the chances of the same sodas being present is X quadrillion, but the reality is the due to outside factors- I will likely see at least Coca-Cola, Pepsi, and Sprite.
He probably also randomized each of the 10 slots and counted each variation for each slot even though it doesn't matter if say Yasuo was in theoretical slot 1, 6, 10, etc
One more thing that should’ve been covered, is considering who the champion is. It’s all good catching a champion out, but if it’s someone like Akali or Qiyana, they can stall with invisibility and flip the fight, meaning you’ve not actually caught them out.
I just dont understand how there is a max of 30 champs in every aram game out of 160 but yet we see brand and veigar every single game... along with a couple others..
For the example at 12:30, I think it's worth mentioning that the reason Yasuo isn't considered in the fight yet is because Bel'Veth's knockup is on cooldown. Otherwise Yasuo would be able to join off of Bel'Veth's knockup.
Fun Fact, many people watch this video notice the 2.5 quadrillion possibilitys and INSTANDLY move into the comments to say thats not true because of their subjective POV even tho in the video it is also said that all the Champs have individual Pick chances. Great how people react. I love the calmness. Welcome to Leauge.
He literally used that number to explain that relying on matchups and champs counter only is still less efficient than learning how to deal with teamfights. Ofc that number is way bigger than the real possibility of having the same team comps in two matchups. but like, even 900 different possibilities would be enough to prefer learning basic teamfight theory than prefering learning every counter and matchup.
"You have a 0.0000000000387% chance to see the same champs in a game" Damn, I need to play the lottery cause I'm lucky enough to see the same 10 champs pretty much almost every time I play league
One thing people forget that is op as hell is warding mid, near the middle but often near the first gaps on either side of mid bush so you can spot what their team is doing because 3/5s of the time almost always auto paths mid. Also warding near the middle of their first two towers is strong once first is down to see someone moving jungle to jungle and back to lane.
1:20 This calculation ignores the fact that the champs are largely grouped by role causing certain combinations to be much more likely than others, the answer is still huge obviously
Objectives should be your first motives when it comes to take a decision. Should you chase someone on top lane when drake is about to spawn in 10 sec ? Do we have map control on the botlane before i gank ? Should i go back and buy to get some advantage before starting dragon ? Is the enemy jungler starting at red/blue and do i have the possibility to steal the opposite ?
But tell me, isn`t it just better to like never fight and just applie Pressure on a Sidelane? There are so many variables that you never can calculate all in the small time you have, before the Fight breaks out.
Those first figures are bogus due to meta play and main champion picks. It's entirely possible to play the same combination at any rank 3 times in a day. In fact, it's likely. You absolutely can predict how teamfights will play out by experience. Can you please be honest with the newbies?
Yeah, I did the same thing and found it to be a wayyy higher number. But usually you would ban 10 champs, so the real calculation in this patch with 162 champs would be (162-10)*151*150*149*148*147*146*145*144*143*142 = 4797581406883128864000 aka 4,7975814068*E^21 Which obviously is a lot more combinations than stated in the video.
@@jordanoharegibson1610 The math isn't perfect is far from really wrong , fallowed by it is astronomically unlikely that you can ever rely on seeing the same champions to predict how a fight will play out. They are both wrong statements
Actually the number at the beginning of the video is (I think) wrong : number of fights possible in ranked = (5 among 162) * (5 among (162-5)) since you can't pick a champion that's already picked by enemy team. => nb=5,7*10^17
The odds are not remotely accurate. The fact that it is not random chance is a huge factor you need to consider, otherwise what you’re saying is completely wrong and purely for shock value. You need to consider that support players typically select from a small pool of the total number of champions, same goes with jungle, top etc. I don’t know what the actual distribution is, but I’d wager something like 20% of the champions make up 80% of the games. Something that needs to be considered.
I currently don’t think I need Team fight training. I suck at team fighting because I want to teach/motivate my team mates to go in. Rammus cannot succeed alone at all. They are too scared to risk for winning, they don’t look for winning opportunities, and they approach team fights like it would be 4x 1v1 situations, which it is not at all. You can’t bait and trade in team fights through auto attacks. In the mean time I try to learn from what my current rank peers are good at: 1v1 fights. And I try to use the idle time when we are losing anyways to get a better grip on items, so I can make better picks.
the "chances of seeing the same 10 champions in a game more than once" is wrong, most likely they meant "the same 10 champions in 2 games in a row" in that case there are still other factors like pick rate, etc. to take into consideration so most likely this is a very wrong number regardless of what they meant.
Honestly from looking at pro play, the answer to should you fight is no, don’t ever risk giving the opponent the advantage of possibly getting a kill early, the risk vs reward is often too skewered especially early.
there is a 0.0000000000387% of getting the same team comps twice in 100k games... and than you factor in meta and realize that you saw same team comp 3 times this week, in less than 30 games. also simplification to 3 points is oversimplified making it vague. my version would be : 1 to fight or not to fight 2 team positioning 3 key targets 4 key abilities 5 fight movement if there is no reason to fight, dont fight, if u have less people, dont fight, if there is a fed zed and you have 2 glass cannon champs, dont fight even if you are up by 1 person, if fiddlesticks/malph has ult, even if its equal numbers, dont fight, if you are not sure where enemies are, dont fight, if enemy has global ult that can impact the equal numbers fight, dont fight. thats the boiled down version that doesnt feel... vague. of course there are also champ differences, but thats not for a basic guide
The math isn't really true since it doesn't account for champion pick rate and stuff like that. For example, if a pool of 20 champions are really popular, they're quite more likely to be picked relatively to the rest of the champion pool. You could go even further and look at those stats for specific regions to have even more detailed odds of finding the same team comp twice.
I have coordination problems and also my reflexes are not the best so often on many champions that I use I tend to unlock only two skills and focus all my mental energies on fewer aspects of my champion, making it simpler but also more powerful and solid ( more powerful because I have more points on my only 2 skills, more solid because I focus on fewer things but I do them better), for example on anivia I almost never unlock the wall and I focus only on landing the stun by exploiting the greater damage basis of my skills with the extra points I put up by sacrificing the wall, I do the same very often also with Morgana and so on (for example I tend to choose more often ghost instead of flash and ignite instead of exaust because I'm not able to make the most those spells bc you need optimal timing, something that i lack) enemies are often surprised because 1) they think i have the wall or shield and play suboptimally and 2) they don't expect my unusually higher damage and I often found myself getting feeded and carrying games you have to find at all costs a way to play that allows you to give your best, even if that specific way is not "the best"
Just bronze, i can't play more then 4h every 2 week (i work in a factory, 9h every day and many times 6/7 and not 5/7) and i can't take the climb with a serius look when a competitive game has feeders, inters, trolls, Smurf of all kind, boosters, for fun/superficial player that are going to ranked but for theme it's like normals and many more toxic things Like, the other day my team was smashed by a shivana that 1v9, 20/1 and if you see her opgg she has 88/90% win rate on many champ and she hit from iron to silver in just 2 days... seems fun and competive to you? I am not gonna take this game with respect if he treat me without it. So i am just going to play what i feel and just hope for the best, i don't care if win or lose i just play
1. Champions are not randomly picked. People pick the meta champions much more. For every role there is generally around 10-15 champions that you see much more than the average champion of that role. 2. People pick champions by their role. You shouldn't consider the possibility of an Irelia adc for example. 3. Champions are not even mutually independent. There are known synergies and counter picks. Picking a certain champion increases the odds certain other champions are picked while decreasing the odds of different champions.
On the calculation how likely it is to have two times the same team, you are assuming every champ has the same chance of being picked, some champions are picked more often and others basically never in pro play, so it is way more likely to have the exact same matchup. The likelyhood is more akin to 1 in 100.000. The 1 in 3.48e+10 only looks at the possibility of one exact same champ combination showing up, but not the likelihood of any random champ combination showing up again. If you take out the champions you will almost never see it is more around the chance of 1 in 10.000 for any combination to show up twice.
Isn't that total possible number of combos silly considering champion roles? Meaning, Soraka probably won't be found in the jungle right? There is an unrealistic subset that can be removed. If you account for that, is it more realistic to memorize?
This is a common mistake in bronze, silver... I'm tired of seeing this when I play in that MMR. They never look at all teammates and enemies at all times.
I can tell you now. Being in iron, the same champions constantly be picked. Always banned. Samira Warwick teemo yone caitlyn Always picked. Yi jax lux Morgana Tristana garen darius jynx veigar ziggs
Those numbers dont work because its adding in team comps that would never exist like rek'sai adc or poppy mid. There are champs and comps you see regularly in league that you can practice against, which pro teams do.
first part isnt true due to metas and champions selected more often than others. Secondly, it isnt as crazy as you think, a knock up is a knock up, although many champions have different abilities, the ones with knock ups all share being the same thing. Same with a dash, etc. So it lowers the uniqueness or difference of the use case anyways.
1:47 => indeed, the math is totally mess-up because a lot of these solution are extremely improbable compared to others, due to roles/lanes. But as said, still unlikely to have twice same comp on both sides.
Considering popularity and pick-/banrate of champions, the math doesn't quite check out. In 5v5 premade games you will probably see similar if not the same teamcomps due to your bans and meta availability and in solo q, you will see certain champions more often if not banned due to their high popularity, increasing your chances to face the same enemy comp you've seen before further.
The greatest part is when you're flamed for opting out of the most desastrous choices possible. - Like not suiciding into a 2v5 and instead pulling out to help the rest of the team defend. - You know stuff, I don't need to put more examples.
Sion ulted into a 1v5, He was middle, the closest ally (me) was at the Turret just outside base. "Guess I got no team help" Like yeah dude, you were in their blue jg (bot) and ulted into mid lane alone. What'd you expect? xD
i count myself lucky that i can think weirdly fast in high pressure situations, i can stay calm and the more i improve at the game the more i can help my friends who i play with in team fights and just laning phase since im a jungler i have time to think, league is so amazing to play in a 5 stack you have good synergy with
I would like to had that in that 2.5 quadrillion whatever includes the team comp Sivir, MF, Cait, Jinx, Xayah Yummi,Soraka,Nami,Sona,Janna Malphite,Maokai,Ornn,Shen,Cho'Gath things like that. Over 80% of comps have never existed and will never exist in a solo queue
These tips only apply if all of your teammates understand how this game works. If you match with players that just don't understand the game at all, no way you can call team for sure. I'm under lv 30 and well, most of my teammates don't even know how to farm
Just because you have a set number of permutations (variations) doesn't mean that it's equally likely for them to appear. There is a champion role, set of roles pr team, and a meta that mostly dictates what Champs are selected. Jinx for instance was picked as adc in 23 out of 29 matches in 2022 LCS. To imply that there's a quadrillion matchups and that pro-players don't base their plays on matchup-experience is rediculous 🤣
The Warwick;Bel veth is the perfect scenario of making the game hard for yourself. We see Caitlyn walking to drag from tier 3 turret, we know MF is over the wall in fog of war on the enemy team making it almost impossible for her to get targeted. We have a tanky Warwick and a sylas that can walk off an engage. The enemy team has yasuo, bel veth and Samira. All 3 champions love to brainlessly go in. So, the only valid play is the stall by walking up into to blue because we can already see they are tunnelled vision into trying to all in Warwick sylas. This moves the enemy team closer to Caitlyn which means she joins the fight faster. This also means the enemy team is now perfectly lined up like ducks for MF to get the perfect ultimate on all 3, then as they start sprinting for their life’s, Warwick presses r and sylas e’s on the nearest target(bel veth) who won’t dodge because they are panicked trying to run form MF ult at point blank range and they’ll get deleted by MF ult and everyone else is chunked to half. Caitlyn makes it to river by the time the ult finishes, and it’s now a 4v2 but the enemy two players have only half health and it’s free drag. No hands(mechanics) required to execute while the rush strat to early jump on bel veth should never be an option. This is because it requires you to outplay the enemy opponent on an individual level which is making the game hard which is what the video’s trying to tell you not to do.
Yeah, the whole stat part at the beginning is completely invalidated by pick rate being a thing. This would be true only if all champ had the same exact chance to be picked regardless of other champs. Which is not true.
@@narutoninjagoandtheflashar4256 it was really long time ago I don’t really remember how but I did play all day from. iron 1 to bronze 1 I didn’t lose from then I had like 57 win rate
the math at the start is actually incorrect, you didn't factor in the pick rates of the champions per elo and regeion, so each pick has a weighting (likelihood of being picked) combined with your calculations. It would be less than 2.5 quadrillion because of this, as they are not all picked with the same random chance. Still likely an astrinomical number, but depending on the meta could actually be quite likely to play the same matchups often
All sounds good but the problem is good players get teammates that don't do any of this and it happens over and over so you lose LP due to other bad players instead of yourself
1:00 except that only 30 heroes are played and banned in pro play (or some are just not being played at all) And some heroes are extremely similliar and your teamfight behaviour will be nearly the same
That’s not true at all about the chances, because that assumes that all champs has an equal likelihood for being picked for every role. Which it’s not even close.
if we are talking statistics the higher the rank the less combinations there will be. Considering the higher the ladder, the strong meta champion becomes. Even at lower ranks the meta champions still have a much higher playrate that off meta picks. Champions like Skarner, Kalista arent gonna be picked often. Resulting in same combinations or more or less same combinations of champions more often than not. Of course the point comes through nonetheless, it is still really hard to ever predict a teamfight before hand.
before you apply this you have to know how your teammates play. if your teammates aren’t fighting ever or never respond to pings you can’t factor them in
While that is a tempting argument, coming from poker game theory (which is weirdly applicable to every other game), what really matters at the end is not what your opponents (or your team mates) will or won't do. What's important is what equity YOUR play has. That is to say, under the ideal circumstances, was your play +equity (which means that over a large sample of data, it is a winning play and not a losing one), or was it not? Let's say you can do the exact same teamfight with the same champs 300 times over, but every time you have different people on your team. Every Tf would play out differently, correct, because you cannot control what your or the enemy team does. However, the question here is what is YOUR +equity play, what will yield a minimum of 51% winrate over those 300 games (and preferably higher of course). yes, of course the MF should have ulted when you engaged, and she didn't and that's why you all die and lose THAT SPECIFIC teamfight, still it doesn't mean YOUR play was incorrect. As long as YOUR play was correct, and you continue to do this correct play over those 300 games, you'll notice a positive win on that TF (and winrate in games). Once you get THAT down, which is a basic framework in poker you must learn to understand before moving on to "okay, let's see how I can exploit/make up for poor play by others", the game becomes a lot less tilting. Once you get there, you can start recognizing whether or not you should go for the theoretical correct play, or if you should deviate for that specific game because, say, you want to take into account that your MF has 400 MS right now. Being able to accurately recognize what is the CORRECT PLAY, and what is an exception you could make to accomodate for a defect in either your team or enemy's, is something I would never recommend anyone to worry about until recognizing correct plays comes naturally to you and you feel OK losing a game because you're sure YOU played correct. So in @uuamenator 's example, indeed, do not abandon your wave because you autolose the game if you sacrifice 3 waves just to chase around your inting Shaco. If you consistently do the correct play 100 times, you'll find that you'll be winning more often than you're losing, even if it may feel bad if it loses you that specific game.
@@foamingstuffye3951 yeah of course it’s a case by case. my point was to be able to read your teammates. since that is a factor in whether or not your play is right
the math doesnt quite take into account that some champions are used more commonly than others. It would be true if it is the same percent chance that a champion could be chosen when realistically champions like lux get played much more than ones like skarner.
>Yasuo is quite far away My dude, that yasuo is one second at most from being within dash range of the warwick, and he may even have flash up to windwall the entire MF ult. Taking a 3v3 against Yasuo, bel, samira with that comp is suicide; especially when your sylas has bel's ult for some reason. You give dragon here or wait for cait and engage with 4 to have a chance. You could have picked a much better demonstrative scenario than this.
Wrong statement in theory ofc the chance having the same teamcomb twice is lower than winning lottery but as there allways is a meta, sometimes you will have the same champions in close to every game you play
Theres probably only 10 picks per role per patch/month meta, and some combinations arent likely to be played so you can rely on some of them. Zed Akali Sylas Quyana Kata mid are almost guaranteed in one of 10 games played
what I learned from this video: even if you play it correctly (sylas) all it takes is one bad teammate (warwick) to ruin the whole thing. This is applicable in high elo games, Most low elo teams wont apply this logic
Side note if you want some advantage playing those unique champions can give you and edge due to that "big number impossible to know" Things like Rumble aren't played but man can he be strong!
All those stats are total bs if you would consider that there are only a fraction of the 160 champ suited for each role. You GENERALLY don't see ADC champs as jungler (ex. Kindred). Generally no Support champs as ADC (ex. Sera) etc.
this is all quite obvious my teammates need to watch this i guess but having perfectly clean fundamentals and never ever inting my games has not been enough to get me out of elo hell, complete hard carry 2v8 with a duo partner is literally the absolute one and only relyable win condition i have and its so boring to do that for enough games to actually get out.
Sometimes i wish league wasn't so "bursty". It becomes "who can dump and land all their abilities and items first", whereas early game is a lot more patience, timing, and outplay skirmishes (unless you're in a tanky top scenario lol). Am I alone in this thought?
that same team comp remark is crazy to say. 800 million times more likey to win the lottery than see the same 2 tam comps twice. we all know thats not true whatsoever
well to me in EUW is around 30 champs that people use in meta... the old LoL was more than any champ, now is about meta and god tier/ A tier depending on patchs.
You also need to analyse which champion of the enemy is most dangerous. In the Ww against Bel'Veth situation the Ww should have at least went for the Samira. She was the the dmg dealer of the fight being able to execute your team if she had Collector. And I am totally not saying to target the Samira because I am coming back from a ranked game where my Ashe decided to go 2/10 against Samira. *sob* *sob* Totally nothing to do with that.
the math is wrong u dont take in account the play rates and the banrates chance of 2 times the same team depends on the champs (the chance of 2 times same team with ivern is way lower than 2 times with like i dont know lee sin jungle for exemple)
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How does the rank up gurantee work? Im d2, does it gurantee I reach masters as junglet? Im 100% interested in buying (but im afraid i wont learn much as jg and might waste time)
There might be 2.5 quadrillion potential 5v5 team selections, but theres only 2 in pro play now lol.
Lucian Nami anyone? Lol
Those 2.5 quadrillion potential 5v5 stats are kinda mumbo jumbo. Like no one’s gonna pick a comp of all support champs. Realistically, there’s way less. Plus some champs have been pick/ban while others are rarely played at all. It’s like saying there’s some ridiculous amount of “possible” chess moves when in reality there’s only like 4 good moves in a certain position
Draven Pyke anyone? Lol
@@jimmysamson3511 yeah I know. It's just the end result of a calculator. Doesn't mean it's incorrect though.
@@jimmysamson3511 The narrator clarified that the math isn't totally accurate since champion choice isn't totally random though????
Total champs: 162.
Meta champs: 16.2.
played champs 6.2
You have a 0.0000000000387% chance to see the same champs in a game
Me: Sees the same 10 champs every game...
@Sambo Jones and every Champion picked the Same amount of Times
They literally say their math is flawed... The point was that the game is very complicated and that there's a lot to consider and learn, so learning the theory is more important than the team v team matchup.
yep watch the meta champs, people pick meta champs, i always see lux too, caitlyn a lot etc
The video starts on an out of touch note....in low elo we do see the same champs almost every game. Also most champs are extremely similar and we have spent years playing agaisnt the same similar comps.
that number is the theoretical chance, the experimental chance would be way different
You definitely will see the same champions over and over, because even though there are many champions, only a select few are actually popular, and some of them are extremely popular so you will see them very often, such as Darius, Irelia and now Gangplanks or Jax in top.
Ppl pick meta champs. U will see them over and over for sure
He literally explained that too
It is more about the exact same team comp on both sides, same runes, same items etc. For example BLUE team: darius, sylas, vi, lucian and nami RED team: irelia, syndra, kayn, cait and lux. And then imagine seeing those exact same team comps several times. It is very unlikely you will experience that. Yea, there might be champs you will see way more than other champs, but just one champ being different can already change how a team fight could be played out.
Not to mention you can’t have more than one of any champion in the same game, so a huge portion of those possible team comps aren’t actually possible.
are you illiterate or what
Me: No one has played 2.584E+15 worth of games
The Enemy Yasuo: 🙂
enemy yas on his way to transcend time itself just so he can go 0/10 in every possible scenario
Dude loading into an iron match with friends and our fill was a 3mill+ mastery score Yas.
My friends were excited.
I told them:
It’s 3 million in iron.
They all went silent. Sure as shit that dude was genuinely the DUMBEST player I have ever seen.
And you're both in Silver.
Under rated comment lol
I play both League and Dota, both games have their pros and cons i wont dive into that. But when in League pro play only 20 to 30 % of champion pool is played (and im probably being generous on those 20 30 %) and in Dota 2 over 80 % of champion pool is played, there is clearly a big problem with League balance.
I guess this is because in league they balance Champs not only for proplay they also balance them for their lowest leagues
@@srnght Get Bad
Thats because dota is in total 20% of how many champs league has
@@jacquegusto4038 Nope dota in total is 75 % of league champs, 121 for dota, 162 for league. Now go back and re-enter 5th to 7th grade math class. Good luck!
@@srnght cry about it , at the end of the day most people are low elo (bronze - silver). why should a company put more priority on 5% of players than the majority of people who actually play the game.
This math is BEYOND deceptive. Considering the top 5 most picked champions in any role make up like 50% of all the picks in that role makes it incredibly more likely youre gonna face the same comps.
and yet, its still not. Considering bans, picks not allowing opposing team to pick that champ, it is still a ridiculously low chance you ever see the same pick/ban phase. Also, people play off meta, the other 50% of picks are not 5 champs. ALSO... ignoring pickban, off meta, and assuming people only play top 5 in a role... its still around a one in 9765625 chance(5 to the power of ten)
@@zekeblume566 people don't play off meta in challenger
When you take a beginner statistics class and totally misapply it
What's wrong then? Assuming even chance for every champion to be picked, and 10 champions always banned it leaves us with 152 choose 10 which gives us 1340705736329960 possible sets of picked champions. No champions banned gives us 2584164477130236, so everything checks out.
Except you see the smae champ90% of the time
@anon1963 That's not accounting for champion meta popularity, popularity of specific champs for specific roles and much more.
In reality they quadrillion statistic is meaningless.
There are hundreds, if not thousands of different brands of soda. But Coca-cola, Pepsi, Sprite, 7-Up, and Moutain Dew dominate the market because of marketing, but also taste preference. I could say that at any given party I go to the chances of the same sodas being present is X quadrillion, but the reality is the due to outside factors- I will likely see at least Coca-Cola, Pepsi, and Sprite.
He probably also randomized each of the 10 slots and counted each variation for each slot even though it doesn't matter if say Yasuo was in theoretical slot 1, 6, 10, etc
One more thing that should’ve been covered, is considering who the champion is. It’s all good catching a champion out, but if it’s someone like Akali or Qiyana, they can stall with invisibility and flip the fight, meaning you’ve not actually caught them out.
I just dont understand how there is a max of 30 champs in every aram game out of 160 but yet we see brand and veigar every single game... along with a couple others..
"You will never see the same 10 champions in 2 different games"
Pro play: "Allow me to introduce myself"
This guide is clearly not for pro players
@@RollForFunDnD Yeah, it's almost as if non-competitive doesn't have its own meta.
For the example at 12:30, I think it's worth mentioning that the reason Yasuo isn't considered in the fight yet is because Bel'Veth's knockup is on cooldown. Otherwise Yasuo would be able to join off of Bel'Veth's knockup.
yea and the biggest mistake is ulting before samira ult
"It has a 0,00....37% chance to find the same comp"
Me playing the tutorial 5 times in a row:
Fun Fact, many people watch this video notice the 2.5 quadrillion possibilitys and INSTANDLY move into the comments to say thats not true because of their subjective POV even tho in the video it is also said that all the Champs have individual Pick chances. Great how people react. I love the calmness. Welcome to Leauge.
He literally used that number to explain that relying on matchups and champs counter only is still less efficient than learning how to deal with teamfights. Ofc that number is way bigger than the real possibility of having the same team comps in two matchups.
but like, even 900 different possibilities would be enough to prefer learning basic teamfight theory than prefering learning every counter and matchup.
Misusage of stats hurts. You can still make your point without misrepresenting the numbers.
"You have a 0.0000000000387% chance to see the same champs in a game" Damn, I need to play the lottery cause I'm lucky enough to see the same 10 champs pretty much almost every time I play league
One thing people forget that is op as hell is warding mid, near the middle but often near the first gaps on either side of mid bush so you can spot what their team is doing because 3/5s of the time almost always auto paths mid. Also warding near the middle of their first two towers is strong once first is down to see someone moving jungle to jungle and back to lane.
Video starts at 3:12
1:20 This calculation ignores the fact that the champs are largely grouped by role causing certain combinations to be much more likely than others, the answer is still huge obviously
Objectives should be your first motives when it comes to take a decision. Should you chase someone on top lane when drake is about to spawn in 10 sec ? Do we have map control on the botlane before i gank ? Should i go back and buy to get some advantage before starting dragon ? Is the enemy jungler starting at red/blue and do i have the possibility to steal the opposite ?
Yeah those lottery numbers aren't factoring in Meta and high pick rate champs....I wish the lotto was as easy as seeing the same team comp 2x
But tell me, isn`t it just better to like never fight and just applie Pressure on a Sidelane? There are so many variables that you never can calculate all in the small time you have, before the Fight breaks out.
Then the teamfight will come to you eventually
Those first figures are bogus due to meta play and main champion picks. It's entirely possible to play the same combination at any rank 3 times in a day. In fact, it's likely.
You absolutely can predict how teamfights will play out by experience. Can you please be honest with the newbies?
I would love to see more team fight instruction!
idk how you counted but i did some research and its much much more.
161!/151!
Yeah, I did the same thing and found it to be a wayyy higher number. But usually you would ban 10 champs, so the real calculation in this patch with 162 champs would be (162-10)*151*150*149*148*147*146*145*144*143*142 = 4797581406883128864000 aka 4,7975814068*E^21
Which obviously is a lot more combinations than stated in the video.
The statistics in the beginning are wrong, because you ignore champion play rate
They mentioned that
@@jordanoharegibson1610 what's the timestamp for that?
@@wildexperiense 1:35
@@jordanoharegibson1610 The math isn't perfect is far from really wrong , fallowed by it is astronomically unlikely that you can ever rely on seeing the same champions to predict how a fight will play out. They are both wrong statements
@@wildexperiense they said every champ is not played the same amount
Actually the number at the beginning of the video is (I think) wrong : number of fights possible in ranked = (5 among 162) * (5 among (162-5)) since you can't pick a champion that's already picked by enemy team. => nb=5,7*10^17
Its so crazy ive been playing this game for 10+ years but i always can learn something
The odds are not remotely accurate. The fact that it is not random chance is a huge factor you need to consider, otherwise what you’re saying is completely wrong and purely for shock value. You need to consider that support players typically select from a small pool of the total number of champions, same goes with jungle, top etc. I don’t know what the actual distribution is, but I’d wager something like 20% of the champions make up 80% of the games. Something that needs to be considered.
Exactly you will never see 2 supports And 3 jungler Champs in one team
I currently don’t think I need Team fight training. I suck at team fighting because I want to teach/motivate my team mates to go in. Rammus cannot succeed alone at all.
They are too scared to risk for winning, they don’t look for winning opportunities, and they approach team fights like it would be 4x 1v1 situations, which it is not at all. You can’t bait and trade in team fights through auto attacks.
In the mean time I try to learn from what my current rank peers are good at: 1v1 fights.
And I try to use the idle time when we are losing anyways to get a better grip on items, so I can make better picks.
the "chances of seeing the same 10 champions in a game more than once" is wrong,
most likely they meant "the same 10 champions in 2 games in a row" in that case there are still other factors like pick rate, etc. to take into consideration so most likely this is a very wrong number regardless of what they meant.
You mean I should stop handicapping myself by playing this thing named Shaco?
nah
u should just play whatever the fuck you actually enjoy
Don't ever change who you are, be the clown you where meant to be!
Honestly from looking at pro play, the answer to should you fight is no, don’t ever risk giving the opponent the advantage of possibly getting a kill early, the risk vs reward is often too skewered especially early.
The game is simple, people that complicate / doesn't think. There are numerous good players stuck in low ELO.
there is a 0.0000000000387% of getting the same team comps twice in 100k games... and than you factor in meta and realize that you saw same team comp 3 times this week, in less than 30 games. also simplification to 3 points is oversimplified making it vague. my version would be :
1 to fight or not to fight
2 team positioning
3 key targets
4 key abilities
5 fight movement
if there is no reason to fight, dont fight, if u have less people, dont fight, if there is a fed zed and you have 2 glass cannon champs, dont fight even if you are up by 1 person, if fiddlesticks/malph has ult, even if its equal numbers, dont fight, if you are not sure where enemies are, dont fight, if enemy has global ult that can impact the equal numbers fight, dont fight. thats the boiled down version that doesnt feel... vague. of course there are also champ differences, but thats not for a basic guide
slightly less combinations because not all champions are suited for all roles.
The math isn't really true since it doesn't account for champion pick rate and stuff like that. For example, if a pool of 20 champions are really popular, they're quite more likely to be picked relatively to the rest of the champion pool.
You could go even further and look at those stats for specific regions to have even more detailed odds of finding the same team comp twice.
I have coordination problems and also my reflexes are not the best so often on many champions that I use I tend to unlock only two skills and focus all my mental energies on fewer aspects of my champion, making it simpler but also more powerful and solid ( more powerful because I have more points on my only 2 skills, more solid because I focus on fewer things but I do them better), for example on anivia I almost never unlock the wall and I focus only on landing the stun by exploiting the greater damage basis of my skills with the extra points I put up by sacrificing the wall, I do the same very often also with Morgana and so on (for example I tend to choose more often ghost instead of flash and ignite instead of exaust because I'm not able to make the most those spells bc you need optimal timing, something that i lack)
enemies are often surprised because 1) they think i have the wall or shield and play suboptimally and 2) they don't expect my unusually higher damage and I often found myself getting feeded and carrying games
you have to find at all costs a way to play that allows you to give your best, even if that specific way is not "the best"
Ur handicapping urself
what rank are you?
Just bronze, i can't play more then 4h every 2 week (i work in a factory, 9h every day and many times 6/7 and not 5/7) and i can't take the climb with a serius look when a competitive game has feeders, inters, trolls, Smurf of all kind, boosters, for fun/superficial player that are going to ranked but for theme it's like normals and many more toxic things
Like, the other day my team was smashed by a shivana that 1v9, 20/1 and if you see her opgg she has 88/90% win rate on many champ and she hit from iron to silver in just 2 days... seems fun and competive to you? I am not gonna take this game with respect if he treat me without it. So i am just going to play what i feel and just hope for the best, i don't care if win or lose i just play
1. Champions are not randomly picked. People pick the meta champions much more. For every role there is generally around 10-15 champions that you see much more than the average champion of that role.
2. People pick champions by their role. You shouldn't consider the possibility of an Irelia adc for example.
3. Champions are not even mutually independent. There are known synergies and counter picks. Picking a certain champion increases the odds certain other champions are picked while decreasing the odds of different champions.
I remember playing way back when a mirror comp was common. Makes me feel old
On the calculation how likely it is to have two times the same team, you are assuming every champ has the same chance of being picked, some champions are picked more often and others basically never in pro play, so it is way more likely to have the exact same matchup.
The likelyhood is more akin to 1 in 100.000.
The 1 in 3.48e+10 only looks at the possibility of one exact same champ combination showing up, but not the likelihood of any random champ combination showing up again.
If you take out the champions you will almost never see it is more around the chance of 1 in 10.000 for any combination to show up twice.
Would love to see someone do the math including pick and ban rates :D
Isn't that total possible number of combos silly considering champion roles? Meaning, Soraka probably won't be found in the jungle right? There is an unrealistic subset that can be removed. If you account for that, is it more realistic to memorize?
This is really good content. Can’t believe y’all put this out for free! Thanks for another game changing insight.
Meanwhile Kassadin, Jax, K'Sante, Hecarim, Maokai in every game. 🤣
This is a common mistake in bronze, silver... I'm tired of seeing this when I play in that MMR. They never look at all teammates and enemies at all times.
I can tell you now. Being in iron, the same champions constantly be picked.
Always banned. Samira Warwick teemo yone caitlyn
Always picked. Yi jax lux Morgana Tristana garen darius jynx veigar ziggs
Those numbers dont work because its adding in team comps that would never exist like rek'sai adc or poppy mid. There are champs and comps you see regularly in league that you can practice against, which pro teams do.
first part isnt true due to metas and champions selected more often than others. Secondly, it isnt as crazy as you think, a knock up is a knock up, although many champions have different abilities, the ones with knock ups all share being the same thing. Same with a dash, etc. So it lowers the uniqueness or difference of the use case anyways.
1:47 => indeed, the math is totally mess-up because a lot of these solution are extremely improbable compared to others, due to roles/lanes. But as said, still unlikely to have twice same comp on both sides.
Considering popularity and pick-/banrate of champions, the math doesn't quite check out. In 5v5 premade games you will probably see similar if not the same teamcomps due to your bans and meta availability and in solo q, you will see certain champions more often if not banned due to their high popularity, increasing your chances to face the same enemy comp you've seen before further.
Crazy how they said that in the video😮
The intro to this video feels like watching that repeating gif of the truck not crashing.
"To fight or not to fight, that is the question" Skilliam Nidaspear
The greatest part is when you're flamed for opting out of the most desastrous choices possible.
- Like not suiciding into a 2v5 and instead pulling out to help the rest of the team defend.
- You know stuff, I don't need to put more examples.
Sion ulted into a 1v5, He was middle, the closest ally (me) was at the Turret just outside base.
"Guess I got no team help" Like yeah dude, you were in their blue jg (bot) and ulted into mid lane alone. What'd you expect? xD
i count myself lucky that i can think weirdly fast in high pressure situations, i can stay calm and the more i improve at the game the more i can help my friends who i play with in team fights and just laning phase since im a jungler i have time to think, league is so amazing to play in a 5 stack you have good synergy with
I would like to had that in that 2.5 quadrillion whatever includes the team comp Sivir, MF, Cait, Jinx, Xayah Yummi,Soraka,Nami,Sona,Janna Malphite,Maokai,Ornn,Shen,Cho'Gath things like that. Over 80% of comps have never existed and will never exist in a solo queue
These tips only apply if all of your teammates understand how this game works. If you match with players that just don't understand the game at all, no way you can call team for sure. I'm under lv 30 and well, most of my teammates don't even know how to farm
Just because you have a set number of permutations (variations) doesn't mean that it's equally likely for them to appear. There is a champion role, set of roles pr team, and a meta that mostly dictates what Champs are selected. Jinx for instance was picked as adc in 23 out of 29 matches in 2022 LCS.
To imply that there's a quadrillion matchups and that pro-players don't base their plays on matchup-experience is rediculous 🤣
The Warwick;Bel veth is the perfect scenario of making the game hard for yourself.
We see Caitlyn walking to drag from tier 3 turret, we know MF is over the wall in fog of war on the enemy team making it almost impossible for her to get targeted.
We have a tanky Warwick and a sylas that can walk off an engage.
The enemy team has yasuo, bel veth and Samira. All 3 champions love to brainlessly go in.
So, the only valid play is the stall by walking up into to blue because we can already see they are tunnelled vision into trying to all in Warwick sylas.
This moves the enemy team closer to Caitlyn which means she joins the fight faster.
This also means the enemy team is now perfectly lined up like ducks for MF to get the perfect ultimate on all 3, then as they start sprinting for their life’s, Warwick presses r and sylas e’s on the nearest target(bel veth) who won’t dodge because they are panicked trying to run form MF ult at point blank range and they’ll get deleted by MF ult and everyone else is chunked to half.
Caitlyn makes it to river by the time the ult finishes, and it’s now a 4v2 but the enemy two players have only half health
and it’s free drag.
No hands(mechanics) required to execute while the rush strat to early jump on bel veth should never be an option.
This is because it requires you to outplay the enemy opponent on an individual level which is making the game hard which is what the video’s trying to tell you not to do.
Yeah, the whole stat part at the beginning is completely invalidated by pick rate being a thing. This would be true only if all champ had the same exact chance to be picked regardless of other champs. Which is not true.
1:35 that's only assuming that every champion is played equally and there is no metta
i got into iron 1 to gold 4 in 2 weeks your videos helped me tnx
Doubtful
How tf
@@narutoninjagoandtheflashar4256 it was really long time ago I don’t really remember how but I did play all day from. iron 1 to bronze 1 I didn’t lose from then I had like 57 win rate
@@itch2415 I see
@@itch2415 do you still play League today? If yes, then what is your rank now
Cash in on small wins (don't overstay) and never coinflip even fights
the math at the start is actually incorrect, you didn't factor in the pick rates of the champions per elo and regeion, so each pick has a weighting (likelihood of being picked) combined with your calculations. It would be less than 2.5 quadrillion because of this, as they are not all picked with the same random chance. Still likely an astrinomical number, but depending on the meta could actually be quite likely to play the same matchups often
All sounds good but the problem is good players get teammates that don't do any of this and it happens over and over so you lose LP due to other bad players instead of yourself
1:00 except that only 30 heroes are played and banned in pro play
(or some are just not being played at all)
And some heroes are extremely similliar and your teamfight behaviour will be nearly the same
what isnt considerd is your laners just refusing to rotate. they got them new boots, i think they call it cement shoes
That’s not true at all about the chances, because that assumes that all champs has an equal likelihood for being picked for every role. Which it’s not even close.
if we are talking statistics the higher the rank the less combinations there will be. Considering the higher the ladder, the strong meta champion becomes. Even at lower ranks the meta champions still have a much higher playrate that off meta picks. Champions like Skarner, Kalista arent gonna be picked often. Resulting in same combinations or more or less same combinations of champions more often than not. Of course the point comes through nonetheless, it is still really hard to ever predict a teamfight before hand.
before you apply this you have to know how your teammates play. if your teammates aren’t fighting ever or never respond to pings you can’t factor them in
While that is a tempting argument, coming from poker game theory (which is weirdly applicable to every other game), what really matters at the end is not what your opponents (or your team mates) will or won't do. What's important is what equity YOUR play has. That is to say, under the ideal circumstances, was your play +equity (which means that over a large sample of data, it is a winning play and not a losing one), or was it not? Let's say you can do the exact same teamfight with the same champs 300 times over, but every time you have different people on your team. Every Tf would play out differently, correct, because you cannot control what your or the enemy team does. However, the question here is what is YOUR +equity play, what will yield a minimum of 51% winrate over those 300 games (and preferably higher of course). yes, of course the MF should have ulted when you engaged, and she didn't and that's why you all die and lose THAT SPECIFIC teamfight, still it doesn't mean YOUR play was incorrect. As long as YOUR play was correct, and you continue to do this correct play over those 300 games, you'll notice a positive win on that TF (and winrate in games).
Once you get THAT down, which is a basic framework in poker you must learn to understand before moving on to "okay, let's see how I can exploit/make up for poor play by others", the game becomes a lot less tilting. Once you get there, you can start recognizing whether or not you should go for the theoretical correct play, or if you should deviate for that specific game because, say, you want to take into account that your MF has 400 MS right now. Being able to accurately recognize what is the CORRECT PLAY, and what is an exception you could make to accomodate for a defect in either your team or enemy's, is something I would never recommend anyone to worry about until recognizing correct plays comes naturally to you and you feel OK losing a game because you're sure YOU played correct.
So in @uuamenator 's example, indeed, do not abandon your wave because you autolose the game if you sacrifice 3 waves just to chase around your inting Shaco. If you consistently do the correct play 100 times, you'll find that you'll be winning more often than you're losing, even if it may feel bad if it loses you that specific game.
@@foamingstuffye3951 yeah of course it’s a case by case. my point was to be able to read your teammates. since that is a factor in whether or not your play is right
the math doesnt quite take into account that some champions are used more commonly than others. It would be true if it is the same percent chance that a champion could be chosen when realistically champions like lux get played much more than ones like skarner.
Ok but hear me out. If I'm playing yasuo, and it's a 1v4 and I hit a knock up, I R and go in, right???????? Surely
The only thing people taking from this video is that they see the same comps every game says a lot
0:35 no one ever thought that
>Yasuo is quite far away
My dude, that yasuo is one second at most from being within dash range of the warwick, and he may even have flash up to windwall the entire MF ult.
Taking a 3v3 against Yasuo, bel, samira with that comp is suicide; especially when your sylas has bel's ult for some reason.
You give dragon here or wait for cait and engage with 4 to have a chance. You could have picked a much better demonstrative scenario than this.
Wrong statement in theory ofc the chance having the same teamcomb twice is lower than winning lottery but as there allways is a meta, sometimes you will have the same champions in close to every game you play
Theres probably only 10 picks per role per patch/month meta, and some combinations arent likely to be played so you can rely on some of them. Zed Akali Sylas Quyana Kata mid are almost guaranteed in one of 10 games played
Video invalidated itself in first minute. Out of these champions around 30 are being played above P1.
what I learned from this video: even if you play it correctly (sylas) all it takes is one bad teammate (warwick) to ruin the whole thing. This is applicable in high elo games, Most low elo teams wont apply this logic
Side note if you want some advantage playing those unique champions can give you and edge due to that "big number impossible to know"
Things like Rumble aren't played but man can he be strong!
All those stats are total bs if you would consider that there are only a fraction of the 160 champ suited for each role. You GENERALLY don't see ADC champs as jungler (ex. Kindred). Generally no Support champs as ADC (ex. Sera) etc.
this is all quite obvious my teammates need to watch this i guess but having perfectly clean fundamentals and never ever inting my games has not been enough to get me out of elo hell, complete hard carry 2v8 with a duo partner is literally the absolute one and only relyable win condition i have and its so boring to do that for enough games to actually get out.
Sometimes i wish league wasn't so "bursty". It becomes "who can dump and land all their abilities and items first", whereas early game is a lot more patience, timing, and outplay skirmishes (unless you're in a tanky top scenario lol). Am I alone in this thought?
that same team comp remark is crazy to say. 800 million times more likey to win the lottery than see the same 2 tam comps twice. we all know thats not true whatsoever
How to play differently: don't count on long ranged spells to help you when against yasuo and samira :)
Played 4 games after not playing since season 4. Everyone used the same character different players
1:00 - no they arent - cuz each patch you see the same 20 Champs cuz of the Buffs and De-buffs
my teamfights always feel like 1V9
Not all champs can play all roles it’s not like you ever see Anivia jungle so that cuts down the possibilities by about 4 quadrillion
well to me in EUW is around 30 champs that people use in meta... the old LoL was more than any champ, now is about meta and god tier/ A tier depending on patchs.
"fight in pocket"
briar, vex, tf, shen, sion, tp toplaner, kalista with ult : *laugh*
Stop playing league of legends
You also need to analyse which champion of the enemy is most dangerous. In the Ww against Bel'Veth situation the Ww should have at least went for the Samira. She was the the dmg dealer of the fight being able to execute your team if she had Collector. And I am totally not saying to target the Samira because I am coming back from a ranked game where my Ashe decided to go 2/10 against Samira. *sob* *sob* Totally nothing to do with that.
If i think about it, 163 champs and still i can remember everyone even tho i will not see them in months.
This was very helpful, thank you!
That's not how chance works btw, pick rate bane rate make those chances extremely wrong and you can easily go look to see the actual stats
the math is wrong u dont take in account the play rates and the banrates chance of 2 times the same team depends on the champs (the chance of 2 times same team with ivern is way lower than 2 times with like i dont know lee sin jungle for exemple)
5:58 imagine lacking range
**Laughs in vel'koz*