Just want to take a moment to appreciate what this man is doing for traders of all breeds, the content on this channel is simply brilliant. Thank you so much for what you’re doing champ, please keep it coming, you have no idea how many lives you’ve changed 🔥🔥🔥
I can’t believe there are thumbs down on this content. Not sure if such an important element of trading can be related in simpler and more down-to-earth way. Thank you Nicholas for putting so much work into this.
Hi! As always I get the confirmation that I have chosen the right person to follow. I am half way through Your full course, hitting ups and downs, but not breaking. "Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard". Just thank you for being sincere.
Nick, have you discussed expected value? I was a profitable poker player in college. Being a decent poker player is crazy boring... But I knew my chances on almost every hand... For example, my chance to make my flush after the flop (need 1 card) is about 33%. If my bet is less than 33% of the pot, then that is a profitable bet, and good poker players: 1. Are not gamblers, 2. Know their expected values and play in a profitable manner. It's ok to lose a hand, because they understand over hundreds of hands, they will be in the money.
Hey Nicholas this video is another gem in your education work. Fooled by Randomness was an eye opener for me and you have done a great job getting to the essence of it. Thank you for being honest in your education efforts.
2 good books on the subject are Disciplined Trader and Trade in the Zone by Mark Douglas. There is also another great book on the subject is Mindful Trader by Gary Dayton. Thank you for simplifying these complex terms Nicolas.
What matter the most in trading is sticking to your strategy. Yes you might have lost 5%, but don't go crazy the second you see a good trading opportunity and risk 5% of your equity because you have a high chance of wining the trade. This is something thats' extremely hard to resist even for me saying that.
Something every trader needs when they are thinking about quitting or looking for answers. You obviously have put in the hard work. All your videos have a very unique insight to trading! I have been trading for a year now and thank you for your motivation.
Finally a pro that avoids the 4/5 big eco reports. Also what is a binary trade? I keep hearing the term but am a bit lost on it. The most important lesson I learned early on is never to suffer from f o m o, fear of missing out. There will be days when you sit here all day and do nothing.
I really like this YT channel. As I started somehow by accident (was relactend to trade even with loaded money on broker account) with traiding (of course lost some money 700EU) and did not use stop losses not even followed trent I am in process of learnimg. Because I am pissed about my decision to open the first trade now I learning a lot about finances. Anyway thank you for sharing your knowleadge with us.
The probability of missing a revolvers bullet 25 times in a row is (1- .1666)*25 = .0105. The Kelly % formula can be used to evaluate the optimal position size, and avoid the dreaded "Gamblers Ruin." But be conservative when plugging in subjective probability numbers into any trading formula. Overconfidence in a traders "Subjective probability" estimates gets them in trouble.
Hey Nicholas. I appreciate the effort you invest in your videos. Very informative and shaping future trading characteristics. Very good Brother. Have a good weekend. Thanks again.
Not a great video Nicholas..... - a BRILLIANT video. The way you present all your stuff is 5*. Even though i've read a lot of this material, the way you get it across is the cat's pyjamas. I'm going to bookmark this one and make a rule to sit and listen before the start of each trading week
Good one! Once you mentioned that disregard to analysis, you wouldn't sell gold. Only buy. Isn't it survivorship bias, which makes you believe price will go up sooner or latter :)
Proper education in trading (along with mentorship) increases the probability of being a successful trader. The Duomo Initiative has helped me turn my trading experience around for the better. Check it out and see for yourself. Become a "Traderpreneur".
A good way to assess the probability of future price movements within a particular time frame is to look at the options markets. The more liquid, the better.
I have to say from experience that knowing how to apply probabilities into your trading will make trading easier and will help you make money, a lot of money. Probability + risk reward. I'ts a numbers game use the numbers and you will make money, Good luck.
THe probability of your one trade working is the winrate you observed by backtesting 100s of trades in your strategy. That’s the best you can do to estimate the probability of a trade winning, surely.
In one of your video i think i heard you say when you first started you traded penny stock, if it so can you make a segment on your penny stocks strategy experience from scanning to fundamental research. I learn a lot from several of your videos,Thanks for shearing.
I haven’t traded penny stocks in probably about 8 years and I wouldn’t recommend it in general. I’m happy to talk about stocks overall though, there will definitely be stuff coming about that.
Thank you for the response and your honest recommendation about penny stock, I guest i should be able to use some of the INFO from your talk about stocks overall to trade penny stocks. Waiting anxiously Thanks again.
hi! thanks for all ur informative video, i just want to ask what is your trading process? i have mine too but im just a beginner so if theres anything ( i'm sure there is) that i can pick up from ur process thatll make sense to us it will be very helpful.. thank you so much!
It's 826:8 now . No reason to dislike this. The probability of say 5 wannabe traders per month surfing UA-cam, happening across a great video by chance and disliking it is moderate since there is still no app for UA-cam content providers to immediately chop off the thumbs of those who press the 👎 button
1:51..if trading is a game of pribabilities is it safe to say that I can ignore all the technical and fundamental analysis and place random trade hoping probability will work in my favor..?
No, by opening trades at random, your probability of succeeding over the long term will be low. Instead, finding ways that tip the probability more in your favour is a good idea.
it is easy to talk about probability and it sound fancy...but most people don't understand it and really doesn't understand how it applies to trading. That applies to this video as well! Amazing that you can claim to talk about probability but instead talk about psychological biases and poor RR-assessment.
You need to understand the audience we are catering for. They want to know how things apply to their performance and trading in a practical way. That’s what this video delivers. Not trying to sound fancy, just trying to provide value.
Re-reading my post I kind of sound harder than I mean too...My point is valid and I think you should have framed it as "pitfalls when dealing with probability in trading". Overall i think you are doing a great work, but hard love you know :)
hmm i dont think that you can calculate probability in trading , there is NO backed data , its not a card game where you can say - oh i had 56% with that hand and invested XY so i will win over a long period of time . that what fuck all the calculation up is volatility and time (talking from the scalper propective) as longer you stay in the trade - the more chances are that you lose , since there is a unknown factor that is based on a chaos theory and not on a mathematical background so there is some truth to - you should trade very volatile markets since they incrase your chance be quick out of the trade
Well, depends on the weapon being used. If its a .22 caliber, then your odds just increased to 8;1. The billionaire will lower his risk to 7.5 million which is still a fantastic risk/reward ratio. Hot damn...any billionaire's around. Lets Play!!!
The only true judgment of a trader is his profit at the end of long session. Yes you might have made 50% in one month But please do tell us about the months where you were loosing.
Great video. I recently had a chance to witness a Martingale Scale strategy in live tradin video. Absurd & nonsense. Guy lost protits of the whole week.
Martingale is insanely stupid I understand the theory behind it but it is a 100% loss strategy unless you have unlimited capital. Lost a trade ? dont bother doubling up on the next trade just take your loss and trade on keeping your risk the same. Any strategy that manipulates your money management for "recovery" will ruin you.
🔹 Get FREE access to the Duomo Trader Development Program: duomotrading.com/FreeDuomoTraining 🔹 Add us on Instagram: instagram.com/duomoinitiative/ 🔹 Our second channel for financial news and analysis: ua-cam.com/users/MarketMoversFinancialNewsandAnalysis
You give only heory you neaver teach to chart reading teqnics to amature traders font help to poor students and you are all subscription based teachers this is the real world
That is just not true. We have over 500 videos on this channel, a free 2-3 hour free course and we do 30 min live streams on Facebook two times a week. We teach a lot about all aspects of trading, including chart reading techniques, without any subscription needed.
Just want to take a moment to appreciate what this man is doing for traders of all breeds, the content on this channel is simply brilliant. Thank you so much for what you’re doing champ, please keep it coming, you have no idea how many lives you’ve changed 🔥🔥🔥
I can’t believe there are thumbs down on this content. Not sure if such an important element of trading can be related in simpler and more down-to-earth way. Thank you Nicholas for putting so much work into this.
Hi! As always I get the confirmation that I have chosen the right person to follow. I am half way through Your full course, hitting ups and downs, but not breaking.
"Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard".
Just thank you for being sincere.
Thank you Nicholas. Your videos give me great insights into trading psychology that no one else does!
The honesty in your tone is what keeps me coming back!!! Proper content on this channel!
Nick, have you discussed expected value? I was a profitable poker player in college. Being a decent poker player is crazy boring... But I knew my chances on almost every hand... For example, my chance to make my flush after the flop (need 1 card) is about 33%. If my bet is less than 33% of the pot, then that is a profitable bet, and good poker players: 1. Are not gamblers, 2. Know their expected values and play in a profitable manner. It's ok to lose a hand, because they understand over hundreds of hands, they will be in the money.
Hey Nicholas this video is another gem in your education work. Fooled by Randomness was an eye opener for me and you have done a great job getting to the essence of it. Thank you for being honest in your education efforts.
Randomness is a great way to fool the masses since it can't be proven or disproven.
2 good books on the subject are Disciplined Trader and Trade in the Zone by Mark Douglas. There is also another great book on the subject is Mindful Trader by Gary Dayton. Thank you for simplifying these complex terms Nicolas.
What matter the most in trading is sticking to your strategy.
Yes you might have lost 5%, but don't go crazy the second you see a good trading opportunity and risk 5% of your equity because you have a high chance of wining the trade. This is something thats' extremely hard to resist even for me saying that.
Nothing could be better than this for those who are trying to become trader
Thank you!
The difference between you and other trading channels, is that you actually give away value.
your videos are amazing, im new to trading and ive literally spend the whole night watching all your videos !
Thank you so much !
Something every trader needs when they are thinking about quitting or looking for answers. You obviously have put in the hard work. All your videos have a very unique insight to trading! I have been trading for a year now and thank you for your motivation.
Thank you Mike!
- Nicholas
Such a good rendition of the biases and things we believe during trading that simply aren't true.
100% agree. And no one knows what will happen next in the markets
Finally a pro that avoids the 4/5 big eco reports. Also what is a binary trade? I keep hearing the term but am a bit lost on it.
The most important lesson I learned early on is never to suffer from f o m o, fear of missing out. There will be days when you sit here all day and do nothing.
This guy is fantastic for providing this concise and in depth knowledge. Much appreciated
I did all mistakes what u said, my thought process changed after watching your videos, thank u ,god bless u
Glad the video was helpful Arun. I had to learn the hard way with many of these things.
Definitely One of Your Most Important Trading Lessons !
You put together many relevant probability concepts, thanks.
I really like this YT channel. As I started somehow by accident (was relactend to trade even with loaded money on broker account) with traiding (of course lost some money 700EU) and did not use stop losses not even followed trent I am in process of learnimg. Because I am pissed about my decision to open the first trade now I learning a lot about finances. Anyway thank you for sharing your knowleadge with us.
you always become a stronger person when you do something hard
The probability of missing a revolvers bullet 25 times in a row is (1- .1666)*25 = .0105. The Kelly % formula can be used to evaluate the optimal position size, and avoid the dreaded "Gamblers Ruin." But be conservative when plugging in subjective probability numbers into any trading formula. Overconfidence in a traders "Subjective probability" estimates gets them in trouble.
Hey Nicholas. I appreciate the effort you invest in your videos. Very informative and shaping future trading characteristics. Very good Brother. Have a good weekend. Thanks again.
One of the best videos I've ever watched. And first comment ever on UA-cam. Great info!! Thanks
⁰⁰⁰0⁰⁰00000⁰⁰0
Best education channel on UA-cam
Not a great video Nicholas.....
- a BRILLIANT video.
The way you present all your stuff is 5*. Even though i've read a lot of this material, the way you get it across is the cat's pyjamas.
I'm going to bookmark this one and make a rule to sit and listen before the start of each trading week
One of the best videos on trading
Thank you!
- Nicholas
Fantastic video thank you
Thank you for the info!
Very interesting approach. It's given me more resolve to keep practicing and not rush things.
Good one! Once you mentioned that disregard to analysis, you wouldn't sell gold. Only buy. Isn't it survivorship bias, which makes you believe price will go up sooner or latter :)
Great content and simple explanations for anyone to understand. Thanks Nicholas.
thank you so much for your hard working making these videos and sharing such knowledge to us
Proper education in trading (along with mentorship) increases the probability of being a successful trader. The Duomo Initiative has helped me turn my trading experience around for the better. Check it out and see for yourself. Become a "Traderpreneur".
Thanks Wade, much appreciated buddy. (Although I must admit, it does look a bit like I wrote it myself 😂)
Evidence that the message is getting through.
A good way to assess the probability of future price movements within a particular time frame is to look at the options markets. The more liquid, the better.
Great video, I have seen 💯
I just love you the way you deliver us these gems🔥
You are best trading tutor out there.
15:42 it reminds me of some guy that commented on one of your videos claiming that he holds a trade for about 1.5 year and got out in profit
Not me ii
Thanks for the down to earth trust worthy content.
Thanks Levi!
- Nicholas
Gonna have to the this again I kinda get it but some kinda went over my head
I have to say from experience that knowing how to apply probabilities into your trading will make trading easier and will help you make money, a lot of money. Probability + risk reward. I'ts a numbers game use the numbers and you will make money, Good luck.
THe probability of your one trade working is the winrate you observed by backtesting 100s of trades in your strategy. That’s the best you can do to estimate the probability of a trade winning, surely.
Gr8 contents channel. Well research topics
Thank you for the great content, man
My eval of this and other Duomo videos ===> Trading Wisdom.
excellent presentation. wish I had concentrated more on permutations and combinations during A-level maths ...or...was that at uni?
Thank you very much it's an eye opener
Im learning a lot from your videos. Thanks for sharing it all!
This video is amazing, thank you!
Great video Nicholas ....Thanks a lot ....
Thanks Nicholas ,very informative video.
I want to cry because of the grestness of this video 😭
Deep.
Very interesting and useful video as always. If you mind me asking Nicholas what are your thoughts on the RSI indicator?
You're missing the point.
Mind blowing stuff. Also check out rande Howell
awesome content, THANKS
Excellent thank you!
In one of your video i think i heard you say when you first started you traded penny stock, if it so can you make a segment on your penny stocks strategy experience from scanning to fundamental research. I learn a lot from several of your videos,Thanks for shearing.
I haven’t traded penny stocks in probably about 8 years and I wouldn’t recommend it in general. I’m happy to talk about stocks overall though, there will definitely be stuff coming about that.
Thank you for the response and your honest recommendation about penny stock, I guest i should be able to use some of the INFO from your talk about stocks overall to trade penny stocks. Waiting anxiously Thanks again.
one of the best video i ever come across on youtube.
hi! thanks for all ur informative video, i just want to ask what is your trading process? i have mine too but im just a beginner so if theres anything ( i'm sure there is) that i can pick up from ur process thatll make sense to us it will be very helpful.. thank you so much!
More about probalities maths science in trading please game Theorie deep knowledge
This is really great video 👍
tooooo goooooood
Something changed in your editing ;))... but the info is still top notch ;))
hundred percent thumbs up-rate on UA-cam
Nice one! Thank you:)
Love your videos. Great insights. Smooth p/l 👍
Makes perfect sense 😐😐😐👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Definitely one of your best.. 😁
What's the name of the track that plays at the end?
Excellent
your first comment I would relate to you have a greater understanding through experience
You have more than 500 liks and just 2-5 no liks. that just confirm you make good video. you are nr one
Tim from Denmark
It's 826:8 now . No reason to dislike this. The probability of say 5 wannabe traders per month surfing UA-cam, happening across a great video by chance and disliking it is moderate since there is still no app for UA-cam content providers to immediately chop off the thumbs of those who press the 👎 button
what"s your take on a winning martingale, where you double up after a win for 2 times and then after you revert back to the original position size?
he thinks it's stupid
@@TeslaTrading Thank you for your thoughts
hey, can you pleaze make a video about the U S NORMALIZING policy.
1:51..if trading is a game of pribabilities is it safe to say that I can ignore all the technical and fundamental analysis and place random trade hoping probability will work in my favor..?
No, by opening trades at random, your probability of succeeding over the long term will be low. Instead, finding ways that tip the probability more in your favour is a good idea.
@@Duomoinitiative that’s exactly what I’m doing now... thanks very much 👍
hello i have been following most of ur videos and i am practicing the whole day but still cant win plz can u help me .
Good video
if i don't have control will i even have profitable trades
it is easy to talk about probability and it sound fancy...but most people don't understand it and really doesn't understand how it applies to trading.
That applies to this video as well! Amazing that you can claim to talk about probability but instead talk about psychological biases and poor RR-assessment.
You need to understand the audience we are catering for. They want to know how things apply to their performance and trading in a practical way. That’s what this video delivers. Not trying to sound fancy, just trying to provide value.
Re-reading my post I kind of sound harder than I mean too...My point is valid and I think you should have framed it as "pitfalls when dealing with probability in trading".
Overall i think you are doing a great work, but hard love you know :)
I appreciate the feedback and do take it on board. I don’t mind a bit of tough love when necessary!
TY, Keep up the good work!
my first broker told me to trade only eco news with pending orders in both directions without stoploss... small wins big losses FML
i will be grateful if u help and and support ur Chanel
I use martingale in my trading but it’s much more then just increasing size every time u loose.
Hi Frank,
We strongly recommend against using martingale, here is the video which explains why ua-cam.com/video/_oOiwpyFP_0/v-deo.html
- Harley
Ever traded in Indian markets?
hmm i dont think that you can calculate probability in trading , there is NO backed data , its not a card game where you can say - oh i had 56% with that hand and invested XY so i will win over a long period of time .
that what fuck all the calculation up is volatility and time (talking from the scalper propective)
as longer you stay in the trade - the more chances are that you lose , since there is a unknown factor that is based on a chaos theory and not on a mathematical background
so there is some truth to - you should trade very volatile markets since they incrase your chance be quick out of the trade
You sir...deserve more views and subscribers...unfortunately you can only subscribe and 'like" once....
Well, depends on the weapon being used. If its a .22 caliber, then your odds just increased to 8;1. The billionaire will lower his risk to 7.5 million which is still a fantastic risk/reward ratio. Hot damn...any billionaire's around. Lets Play!!!
and we watch this for free
🙌
1st time being 1st
The only true judgment of a trader is his profit at the end of long session.
Yes you might have made 50% in one month But please do tell us about the months where you were loosing.
Survivor Shit Bias :)
Great video. I recently had a chance to witness a Martingale Scale strategy in live tradin video. Absurd & nonsense. Guy lost protits of the whole week.
Martingale is insanely stupid I understand the theory behind it but it is a 100% loss strategy unless you have unlimited capital. Lost a trade ? dont bother doubling up on the next trade just take your loss and trade on keeping your risk the same. Any strategy that manipulates your money management for "recovery" will ruin you.
Help me I’m an idiot! I’ve lost 2 thousand pounds by letting my trades run too long and now I’m in....let’s say, a pickle.
🔹 Get FREE access to the Duomo Trader Development Program: duomotrading.com/FreeDuomoTraining
🔹 Add us on Instagram: instagram.com/duomoinitiative/
🔹 Our second channel for financial news and analysis: ua-cam.com/users/MarketMoversFinancialNewsandAnalysis
Much of what is taught in this video can be proven mathematically don't
You give only heory you neaver teach to chart reading teqnics to amature traders font help to poor students and you are all subscription based teachers this is the real world
That is just not true. We have over 500 videos on this channel, a free 2-3 hour free course and we do 30 min live streams on Facebook two times a week. We teach a lot about all aspects of trading, including chart reading techniques, without any subscription needed.