Episode 67: Short - The Millennial Advantage
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- Опубліковано 19 тра 2023
- A brief description of why Millennials have a built-in advantage in understanding and contextualizing Strauss and Howe's ideas compared with others...and especially compared with artificial intelligence.
Neil Howe interview with Tony Robbins, "The Fourth Turning - What Past Generations Can Teach Us About Our Future", Jun 2022 • The Fourth Turning: Wh...
And for another Millennial's point of view: Brandon Quittem on What Bitcoin Did podcast, "The Fourth Turning Revisited", Dec 2021 • The Fourth Turning Rev...
Absolutely EXCELLENT understanding of the nuances and implications. Read the book people. More than once. Understand it and also understand the word "theory" and it's implications. Looking forward to more of your insights and discussions moving forward, interesting times. b. 1966 ;-)
Thank you...and thanks for listening!
What do think of Howe's recent rationalizations about generational periods possible getting longer to explain why no major fourth turning sized crisis has happened yet?
I don't agree with it. It has all the hallmarks of a rationalization, the purpose of which is to keep the theory as initially written intact.
@@generationreport Agreed.
@@generationreport If a saeculum is tied to the length of a human life, and human lives are getting longer, doesn't that imply that each generational period would be lengthened?
Not necessarily. Only two American generations were born between 1925 and 1960. Life expectancy was most definitely going up when they were young. And today, life expectancy is actually going down. So I don't see a correlation between the two.
@Nezsa one of the insights I have gleaned from Strauss and Howe's work is that currently perceived societal trends are ultimately reversed due to the response/influence of older/current generations.
I normally get a lot out of your videos. This one, however, well I would love the cliff notes version because I actually have no idea what's your point was
Well stick to it then.
I'm a Millennial. And because I am, I can see this material and its applications to the real world, better than older people and "generational experts" can, intuitively. We are a generation that's similar in certain respects to the WW2 G.I.s...we were born in a similar time in history and we have very similar outlooks on life. But that doesn't mean as much as most people think. I've lived it, I see it, and I'm not afraid to say it.
A WHOLE lot of people are waiting for Neil's next book to come out. And frankly? I think a lot of them are waiting, because it's going to reassure them that everything's going to somehow work out all right in the end. If you're part of that group that wants the CliffsNotes because you need prefabricated hope more than you want up-to-the-moment insight and honesty? Then that's what you should look for. But I'm doing and offering something different, and I'm not going to change.
@@generationreport No I want the cliff notes because I truly don't think you actually articulated your point in this video. Are you simply saying that the millennial generation is much different than the GI generation despite the 4th turning corollary between these two generations? The generation archetypes are a framework for understanding the corollaries - but of course there are huge differences and none of us can predict how the next turning will unfold by looking at the last one. As Neil says, there is NO guarantee of a happy ending here - especially when we have the millennials largely immune to first principles of freedom and liberty after being raised by the boomer prophets, with their unfolding totalitarian tendencies now in full swing - it's a very dangerous and uncertain time - and I would venture to say the weak men created by the easy times today are far weaker than the G.I, generation were - but that's just the feeling of this nomad gen-x er that is a child of the unraveling - I do like your videos, I simply struggled to get your point on this one
@@jonathandixon2941 Oh I assure you, I did. From the feedback I've gotten so far, trust me: you're in the minority.
Neil has acknowledged this might not end well, that's true. And he's right. But the longer I've read him and listened to him, the more I've realized how hesitant he is to say WHY it might not end well. His insight is greater than any other "generation expert" who rips off his work. But my concern is, he's spent most of the last 20+ years inferring who Millennials are from reading public opinion surveys, interacting with people around my age who come from a small, highly-educated slice, and form-fitting news stories around basic insights he and Bill Strauss made a long time ago. There are LOTS of factors that play into how fourth turnings go that they didn't account for...such as education, such as basic attitudes about the country, such as the concentration of power in DC, such as how elites behave and regard ordinary citizens. I've addressed ALL those things in this series. I'm concerned that Neil's next book won't.
Re: the totalitarian signs we're seeing all around, they aren't a product of Boomers. They're a product of the era. And my generation has PLENTY of authoritarian tendencies of our own...independent of the era, independent of other generations. Trust me: I've seen it and lived it since I was a kid.
@@generationreport You have a lot of knowledge and wisdom and I love what you have to say - but Neil calls this out in the Anthony Robbins podcast - Millennials are much closer and have much higher affinity to the boomers than the gen-x generation - and the boomers embrace an idealism that lends itself to authoritarianism in its late stages. These are of course generalizations but I think that in the macro context they are accurate - the prophet archetype is skewing toward neo-conservative socialist fascism in it's current era, all under the guise of moral superiority - and the millennials have been hoodwinked along for the ride
Man, if I had a nickel for every time an Xer who read Strauss and Howe assumed they knew what being a Millennial has been / is like...
I'll let you in on a little secret: Many of us indeed are close to our Boomer parents, but we don't extend that "higher affinity" to Boomers as a group, at ALL. Don't presume that just because Neil or some other "expert" has said so, that that somehow applies to the state of things in 2023. You know what all those people who make those kinds of blanket statements about Millennials have in common? None of them are my age.
Strauss and Howe's work is not scientific or mathematical, so I don't really look at it as something exact to follow, however, I do have hard mathematical things to look at, like the debt cycle, and that process, or different consumer groups, which match up with the format of what he says and I think he is broadly correct about a definite cycle with different types of people born in each part, the trick would be to find things happening right now which tell you where in the cycle we are, I think the revision he made recently will be correct from what I see in the debt markets, demographics, and alot of other fundamental mathematical things
his earlier work shows that generations can go for a long time, like pre-renaissance generations going 30 years, I think history will consider everyone who went through the financial crisis, covid, and this final crisis in adulthood together as one generation