The #1 reason to NOT push all in here relates to deciding what hands you are targeting a call from. If AK folds for $1100 but calls for $700 then clearly $700 is the better size. If you look so strong that your opponent thinks you do not have many bluffs than a non all-in sizing can be more effective to capture value.
This river bet feels too unbalanced. If hero had straight or flush hands that unblock all two-pairs and sets, he would have gone AI. That gives vilain the opportunity to bluff AI on the river with hands like AQcc or even AK. Unless the plan is to induce some bluffs. But that's exactly why Bart hoped it didn't happen: if you get called by worse it's genius, if you get raised it's terrible.
I was the villain. In retrospect, I think I should fold the river. Hero’s range is too narrow under circumstances to have enough bluffs. And he is mostly checking back AK chops 5 value hands, AA, KK, JJx3. Almost no flushes. Hero is calling those suited hands pre in position - rarely ever 4 betting. What are his bluffs in his 4 bet range? Suited A wheels just check back the river and hope I got sticky with KQ. Anyway, I suck. Nice hand Sam!
Very good analysis here, river is definately tricky, if it was a 3 bet pot I would check back, but in a 4 bet pot, you just wont find enough flushes and QT. I would probably bet 500.
@@TheTree1He bet 400 into 600. And the villain took time. If he bets larger he probably folds. And the same thing happened on the river. It’s like you didn’t listen at all.
It's a 4-bet pot. He should've bet 210 on the flop. Pretty much every king high board is a 1/2 pot c-bet with almost your entire range. Also, doing this would've made it very easy to get it all in vs ak.
@provjerenijebac888 The only hands I see hero losing to is AA and 9hTh. I don't play in games that are this deep so I'm not sure how often AA is putting in another raise but I would think it's fairly often. 9hTh would play this way fairly often but it's only 1 combo. You beat 3 combos of JJ (I dont think its ever played like this though), 3 combos of AK (I think this is the most likely hand given the way it's played) and AJcc if they get sticky on flop. I think V would lead flushes on river and I don't think they have QT that's 3b And calling a 4b. I think that V has AK here the majority of the time. It's always played this way, whereas AA is probably 5b pre a fair proportion of the time, so I think hero should bet a size to get AK to call even though it looks weird going for a non all in sizing - in game I would probably jam because I wouldn't have thought through the hand in this much depth.
I avoid tangling with the few players that I respect(their play). I am not playing the players, Im playing the game. All that truly matters is success overall.
I grew up with delaware park practically in my backyard. I studied poker for years before i was able to legally play in a casino. I remember way back going there on my 21st and ran like a god. It was the best. There are some surprisingly good players there, but i love to stop in pretty often.
They are likely supposed to play a mixed strategy preflop. - However, caller described the situation like both players tried to avoid a direct confrontation, and maybe even try to keep the fish in the hand, when possible. So: The odds for these hands 3-bet/ calling pre appear to be low in this specific spot.
Villain here. I would have partially 3 bet some 5 through 10 suited connectors preflop. Of those, I’m mostly defending to that size 4 bet with those stack sizes. (Deep but not so deep that flush over flush isn’t a tragedy) I think makes my eventual call worse per MDF. Don’t really like my call. Shrug.
So I still had a few flushes, AA, KK in my range at the river to call with in a spot where I just don’t think he has enough bluffs because he is not wide enough preflop (per the live dynamics) to have some suited missed clubs for example to bluff with on river.
@@Herzog-nl1os lesson for the future, if you can't find ENOUGH bluffs on your opponent's range, fold all your bluffcatchers. Let alone when you yourself said that you couldn't find any bluffs. Forget about mdf, exploit your opponent's range first and foremost, and fold everything. They are not computers sir, they won't get to enough showdowns with you on spots like that to start getting out of line. They won't even know what you folded to begin with, nor are they keeping a mental score in their heads of "percentage of times he folds to river bets in 4bet pots" lmao
Pausing before the hero acts on river. Maybe I'm being too nitty but this is a check back for me. There's really only 3 combo's of AK your targeting. Highly doubt a competent player fails to x/r J's on a blank turn. Not sure what other than AK check calls a big bet. Even then I may not call with AK in this spot.
Agreed: If all goes according to plan, us making all the right assumptions, then shoving is slightly +EV. But, if not it is a huge blow-out, and we just walked into punting territory: AA and all the small flush draws that Villain could possibly have can easily take his line. And, AK for Villain may even be indifferent between folding and calling, so that he can get away with folding it. Overall: The possible reward does not look like it would be worth the taken risk.
Betting $400 at the turn is geometric sizing. Roughly 2/3 pot and leaving that for the river shove. I think with a dynamic board like this its the appropriate bet size. When he says "I don't think its any type of mistake" I think you missed the geometric sizing. And hero may have instinctively done it or not known he was, but he didn't say anything about it. I thought it was worth pointing out.
On this board i instantly see range. From royal flush. Straight flush. Flush straight. And you're sitting with q10. If river is Check. Right action is. Check even you're with trips
Some hands just stick to your memory, because it was the biggest/ most interesting hand in a 12+ hour session. But also some players write them down directly afterwards to analyse them.
Not sure of the bet by hero, I would prefer to checkback. And I doubt villain is a great player, when he said he couldn't find bluffs by hero but still called.
Well fucking played. Pretty much a cooler though. Nothing else could have happened in this hand. If either player did something different I think it would have been an over play.
I paused it at 19:20 and wanted to know what your thoughts were on the BB checking the river , what hands would check, I don't think QJ suited or not suited would check, why allow it to check around if you have 2nd nuts with QJo , less likely he's thinking you have QJh as the KK guy was doing the reraise and betting, and if the BB did have PK AA , checking that river for his set of AA, what hand is he putting the guy on? Was he checking each street with AK the whole time, set of Jacks maybe. If I was the KK guy and didn't have to call his river jam, I'm happy with seeing what he has, he could be beat by AA mayyyyybe, and if so, you saved 1100 more. So hopefully he checked as well.
Is it just me or does AK lead us into more situations of top 2 no good or combo draw and you lose to 99 that just won’t fold. AK is the hand that gets played like QQ+ and tends to run into AA or KK more than it should.
If I was the BB, it would have been tough to fold AK the way the hand played. The only hands you are scared of there most of the time are the 3 combos of JJ left. If you are the BB with AK there are more combos available for the opponent to also have AK than for them to have AA or KK combined, there is only one combo of each left.
That's only the first half of the equation, because if your hand is usually the best, your checkback has a lot of EV. The second part is, if we bet, do we get called enough times BY WORSE? Probably not.
I think the villian badly misplayed this hand. The river is a fold for me nearly 100% given discussion. I might have folded the turn given the likely hero range. Hero has all the AA, KK, JJ hands and isnt sllowing down on the turn. On the river, its just an easy fold. As well asall hands mentioned above the front door flush get there in case hero had a combo draw (unlikely, given the 4 bet pre, but still...) Is hero really betting 3 streets to push someone off a chop? Maybe, but still folding.
So are we saying that we’re never folding if V lead jams OTR? I’m just confused as to why especially given that we don’t have too many flushes in our 4! range.
Villain here. I would have as a partial. Usually 1/4 of mid suited connectors randomized by suit. Don’t think it’s common at these stakes but hero probably aware I’m doing it at a low frequency.
AK can fold here. BECAUSE you guys know each other are the pros. I like going smaller here. Maybe he spazzes and raises, and you get called more often. I fold AK for 700$ with no problem at all. It seems like you priced it absolutely perfect though. I mean, AK beats nothing you have here for value. Chop or loss every single time. Every....single....time. like what other than AK did he hope you had? The old small 4-bet, quarter, two thirds line just isn't a bluff. PLUS the backstop. I feel his call was a punt. It burns when you show AK but AK is checking back river in reality.
Villain here. Addressed this in other posts and I agree I should have folded but not for reason you mentioned. What led me to call was that hero is a capable player. Against mediocre reg I snap fold because they can’t create any bluffs. Against bad spazzy player I can call. So while I think hero is good, I still think he under bluffs this spot so it’s a fold. (Got to discuss this with him yesterday actually). Not trying to knock him at all by saying this. Also feel his bet on river is ok because I have less flushes than I should (but not zero as some here suspect). Open to criticism and maybe way off but that’s my thought.
@@clementl.784 villain here. I’m sure someone can correct me but I’m more likely to have 5/6 6/7, 7/8. Fold 8/9, 9/10. Q10 Ass end of straights reasoning?
The #1 reason to NOT push all in here relates to deciding what hands you are targeting a call from. If AK folds for $1100 but calls for $700 then clearly $700 is the better size. If you look so strong that your opponent thinks you do not have many bluffs than a non all-in sizing can be more effective to capture value.
I like the 700 sizing. Pricing the villain in but zero fold equity facing a jam.
Good river bet for a chop in villain mind .. calling. For the chop. So your saying there’s a chance
This river bet feels too unbalanced. If hero had straight or flush hands that unblock all two-pairs and sets, he would have gone AI. That gives vilain the opportunity to bluff AI on the river with hands like AQcc or even AK. Unless the plan is to induce some bluffs. But that's exactly why Bart hoped it didn't happen: if you get called by worse it's genius, if you get raised it's terrible.
Is KJ or JJ raising earlier in the hand? Is AJ folding the turn?
I was the villain. In retrospect, I think I should fold the river. Hero’s range is too narrow under circumstances to have enough bluffs. And he is mostly checking back AK chops
5 value hands, AA, KK, JJx3. Almost no flushes. Hero is calling those suited hands pre in position - rarely ever 4 betting.
What are his bluffs in his 4 bet range? Suited A wheels just check back the river and hope I got sticky with KQ.
Anyway, I suck. Nice hand Sam!
Caller actually knew what he was doing and didn't talk all the GTO lingo, nicely done hero!
I dont even know what GTO means
Game Theory Optimization….GTO is Gospel
Except $100 on the flop here gives the villain great value with AQ AT suited. He's stacking our Hero for $1800 if he hits.
great hand analysis. well played by the hero
To the person in Bart’s chat that says “collusion” - it’s only collusion if they collude.
Very good analysis here, river is definately tricky, if it was a 3 bet pot I would check back, but in a 4 bet pot, you just wont find enough flushes and QT. I would probably bet 500.
Perfectly played. Excellent analysis.
What,"? no. He should go bigger pf and on the turn. He needs to get to where he has 1/2 pot or less left on the river to set up an easy shove.
@@TheTree1He bet 400 into 600. And the villain took time. If he bets larger he probably folds. And the same thing happened on the river.
It’s like you didn’t listen at all.
@@jamespohl-md2eq who cares? You don't play a fucking hand for one situation you do it for infinite situations.
It's a 4-bet pot. He should've bet 210 on the flop. Pretty much every king high board is a 1/2 pot c-bet with almost your entire range. Also, doing this would've made it very easy to get it all in vs ak.
played it perfectly. very cool hand to look at. thanks
great hand, tbh i think im checking river back as played more often than not, great value bet by hero
i cant find any hand that i beat other than AK calling me on river and because ak is heavily blocked im checking 4/5 times
my thoughts exactly. when i heard hero say villain didn’t shove i go “oh, so AK”
@provjerenijebac888 The only hands I see hero losing to is AA and 9hTh. I don't play in games that are this deep so I'm not sure how often AA is putting in another raise but I would think it's fairly often. 9hTh would play this way fairly often but it's only 1 combo. You beat 3 combos of JJ (I dont think its ever played like this though), 3 combos of AK (I think this is the most likely hand given the way it's played) and AJcc if they get sticky on flop.
I think V would lead flushes on river and I don't think they have QT that's 3b And calling a 4b.
I think that V has AK here the majority of the time. It's always played this way, whereas AA is probably 5b pre a fair proportion of the time, so I think hero should bet a size to get AK to call even though it looks weird going for a non all in sizing - in game I would probably jam because I wouldn't have thought through the hand in this much depth.
I avoid tangling with the few players that I respect(their play). I am not playing the players, Im playing the game. All that truly matters is success overall.
I grew up with delaware park practically in my backyard. I studied poker for years before i was able to legally play in a casino. I remember way back going there on my 21st and ran like a god. It was the best. There are some surprisingly good players there, but i love to stop in pretty often.
Bart, is vilain really not supposed to have some smallers hearts like 65hh, 78hh?
Is it necessarily a fold pre?
They are likely supposed to play a mixed strategy preflop. - However, caller described the situation like both players tried to avoid a direct confrontation, and maybe even try to keep the fish in the hand, when possible. So: The odds for these hands 3-bet/ calling pre appear to be low in this specific spot.
Villain here. I would have partially 3 bet some 5 through 10 suited connectors preflop. Of those, I’m mostly defending to that size 4 bet with those stack sizes. (Deep but not so deep that flush over flush isn’t a tragedy)
I think makes my eventual call worse per MDF.
Don’t really like my call. Shrug.
So I still had a few flushes, AA, KK in my range at the river to call with in a spot where I just don’t think he has enough bluffs because he is not wide enough preflop (per the live dynamics) to have some suited missed clubs for example to bluff with on river.
It's pretty much a fold pre. Hes not 3 betting with smaller hearts to 80 most of the time pre
@@Herzog-nl1os lesson for the future, if you can't find ENOUGH bluffs on your opponent's range, fold all your bluffcatchers. Let alone when you yourself said that you couldn't find any bluffs. Forget about mdf, exploit your opponent's range first and foremost, and fold everything. They are not computers sir, they won't get to enough showdowns with you on spots like that to start getting out of line. They won't even know what you folded to begin with, nor are they keeping a mental score in their heads of "percentage of times he folds to river bets in 4bet pots" lmao
Pausing before the hero acts on river.
Maybe I'm being too nitty but this is a check back for me. There's really only 3 combo's of AK your targeting. Highly doubt a competent player fails to x/r J's on a blank turn.
Not sure what other than AK check calls a big bet. Even then I may not call with AK in this spot.
While Bart sounds like he hates this option, is bet/folding around 550 for Hero ever a consideration?
@@datsumcrzysht personally I don't like that against thinking players. Betting small looks weak and often times open you up to a lot of bluffs IMO.
Agreed: If all goes according to plan, us making all the right assumptions, then shoving is slightly +EV. But, if not it is a huge blow-out, and we just walked into punting territory: AA and all the small flush draws that Villain could possibly have can easily take his line. And, AK for Villain may even be indifferent between folding and calling, so that he can get away with folding it. Overall: The possible reward does not look like it would be worth the taken risk.
Betting $400 at the turn is geometric sizing. Roughly 2/3 pot and leaving that for the river shove. I think with a dynamic board like this its the appropriate bet size. When he says "I don't think its any type of mistake" I think you missed the geometric sizing. And hero may have instinctively done it or not known he was, but he didn't say anything about it. I thought it was worth pointing out.
On this board i instantly see range. From royal flush. Straight flush. Flush straight. And you're sitting with q10. If river is Check. Right action is. Check even you're with trips
Hearing Bart break downs hands makes me respect his game a lot more...He's basically mastered 100+bb live nl cash...
What a fantastic hand 😮!
Hero: Would you call with AK in this spot?
Bart: Well, blah blah blah blah...
Because it’s not always a call
I wouldn’t.
I have a hand I would like to talk about. 4 6 os preflop mid table! It needs an explanation that is kind of lengthy
I have played poker 3 years and coming back to it. All ins are the area where all. The money is lost.
How does everyone remember these hands 🙌🏾. Are people filming their hands ? Appreciate the analysis Bart
I can barely remember if I used shampoo in the shower idk how these guys do it
Some hands just stick to your memory, because it was the biggest/ most interesting hand in a 12+ hour session. But also some players write them down directly afterwards to analyse them.
If he is really thinking the only reason he calls is he factored in chops and i think he might not have called the shove...well played
Very nice hand. I probably also would have gone for value on the river, but probably $550. Way to get even more!
Well played, but what does he put you on? It’s gotta be KK, JJ or AA here
Not sure of the bet by hero, I would prefer to checkback. And I doubt villain is a great player, when he said he couldn't find bluffs by hero but still called.
Well fucking played. Pretty much a cooler though. Nothing else could have happened in this hand. If either player did something different I think it would have been an over play.
I paused it at 19:20 and wanted to know what your thoughts were on the BB checking the river , what hands would check, I don't think QJ suited or not suited would check, why allow it to check around if you have 2nd nuts with QJo , less likely he's thinking you have QJh as the KK guy was doing the reraise and betting, and if the BB did have PK AA , checking that river for his set of AA, what hand is he putting the guy on? Was he checking each street with AK the whole time, set of Jacks maybe. If I was the KK guy and didn't have to call his river jam, I'm happy with seeing what he has, he could be beat by AA mayyyyybe, and if so, you saved 1100 more. So hopefully he checked as well.
Is it just me or does AK lead us into more situations of top 2 no good or combo draw and you lose to 99 that just won’t fold.
AK is the hand that gets played like QQ+ and tends to run into AA or KK more than it should.
W take
AK call is praying for a chop- bad call in this setup
Villain here. Didn’t think it was often AK. But I agree I shouldn’t have called.
Which AK did he call with?
AK of clubs makes the most sense but why not bet turn? Pot control and reevaluate on river?
I honestly hate going all in pre-flop; even with aces.
what about AJ suited?
If I was the BB, it would have been tough to fold AK the way the hand played. The only hands you are scared of there most of the time are the 3 combos of JJ left. If you are the BB with AK there are more combos available for the opponent to also have AK than for them to have AA or KK combined, there is only one combo of each left.
If you can’t think of a single bluff, how do you get to the decision to call?
Collusion would be if they show up together with betting codes like if I open for double or min raise I have the nuts.
Why is AA not a bet up front by the same logic that QT and T9 are?
That's exactly what I was thinking.
The caller said he feels his hand is best almost always, so imo he should bet river when checked to him.
That's only the first half of the equation, because if your hand is usually the best, your checkback has a lot of EV. The second part is, if we bet, do we get called enough times BY WORSE? Probably not.
if I were the opponent, I'd fold jacks and call with ace king, ONLY because there's ONE combo of aces and ONE combo of kings with me holding ace king
I think the villian badly misplayed this hand. The river is a fold for me nearly 100% given discussion. I might have folded the turn given the likely hero range. Hero has all the AA, KK, JJ hands and isnt sllowing down on the turn. On the river, its just an easy fold. As well asall hands mentioned above the front door flush get there in case hero had a combo draw (unlikely, given the 4 bet pre, but still...) Is hero really betting 3 streets to push someone off a chop? Maybe, but still folding.
So are we saying that we’re never folding if V lead jams OTR? I’m just confused as to why especially given that we don’t have too many flushes in our 4! range.
i would think its because V also doesnt have too many flushes
@@brianchassee
While true that neither should have many flushes(V knowing this as well), doesn’t that heavily skew Vs river shoving range toward AA?
I'd almost approach it in a MDF kinda way.. if you're folding a set of kings here what are you calling with?
Only real logical hand that beats you is Q10
700 was the perfect sizing here. He just has ak like 90% of the time in this spot
I like the bet 700 on the river.. I'd probably check.. Just being honest.. I'd worry a lot about running into AA or suited 10-9 or 10Q...
I don't have enough guts to bet the river at all. If he jams on me I fold like superman on laundry day. To me uts real $ out there.
I think that's why he bet higher because he pot committed himself so he couldn't chicken out
Aye I play at Delaware park
Couldn't the villain have some KJ suited, should KJ fold river as played?
The guy calling it collusion should just so back to playing crazy 8, war or Uno
The host cant differ 1600 from 1400.
I’m never calling here w/AK
Bart Hanson.
I would have bet more on the flop.
Yeah. If hero took 1/2 pot sizing (like he should've), he definitely stacks the villain here.
Was he calling thinking it was a chop?
All in on turn. Make him pay for that last card pots 1k you got 1k left. It's a good turn card and not all turn cards will be that good for you.
The pot was 620 with 1550 behind.
Jamming the turn all day on a double flush draw.
And folding out the hand that pays off here lol
@@sambortnick6836 better than getting stacked
56 of hearts?
Not gonna 3 bet to 80 vs the other good player at the table with 56hh
Villain here. I would have as a partial. Usually 1/4 of mid suited connectors randomized by suit. Don’t think it’s common at these stakes but hero probably aware I’m doing it at a low frequency.
How about if the villain shove all in at the river.. will the hero still find the call?
AK can fold here. BECAUSE you guys know each other are the pros. I like going smaller here. Maybe he spazzes and raises, and you get called more often. I fold AK for 700$ with no problem at all. It seems like you priced it absolutely perfect though. I mean, AK beats nothing you have here for value. Chop or loss every single time. Every....single....time. like what other than AK did he hope you had? The old small 4-bet, quarter, two thirds line just isn't a bluff. PLUS the backstop. I feel his call was a punt. It burns when you show AK but AK is checking back river in reality.
Backstory
Villain here. Addressed this in other posts and I agree I should have folded but not for reason you mentioned. What led me to call was that hero is a capable player. Against mediocre reg I snap fold because they can’t create any bluffs. Against bad spazzy player I can call. So while I think hero is good, I still think he under bluffs this spot so it’s a fold. (Got to discuss this with him yesterday actually). Not trying to knock him at all by saying this. Also feel his bet on river is ok because I have less flushes than I should (but not zero as some here suspect). Open to criticism and maybe way off but that’s my thought.
The villain is horrible, hero did nothing special here
Aces up here is rubbish
7h8h -- calling it on the turn
I think all SC from 54hh to T9hh are possible. I'm surprised only QThh is mentioned. I think 87hh is a much better call preflop than QThh.
@@clementl.784 villain here. I’m sure someone can correct me but I’m more likely to have 5/6 6/7, 7/8. Fold 8/9, 9/10. Q10
Ass end of straights reasoning?
“I’m one of the best players at the table”
Says b50 on turn is a huge bet.
Bets $700 on river leaving $400 behind lol
given its 2-5 live he could still be the best player at the table
@@ChrisM-wv4gsagreed
It’s amazing listening to how mind blowingly cocky and clueless this guy is
thats why NLHE is still alive because its an easy game for shit players to convince themselves theyre better than they are
So wait. Do you think you are the best player? I couldn’t tell
Oh definitely not, as mentioned in another comment, the villain is definitely a better player than I am
I will play different and much better at the higher stakes