It's true! I'm been living in China for 18 years. Up until the mid-2010s, seeing blue sky in Shanghai center is a rarity, people would take photo of blue sky and post on social media to express their joy. Today blue sky is not a thing that is worthy of posting. Sure if it's raining for a week then blue sky appears at weekend, that is a joy to celebrate and that is same anywhere in the world. I've bought my 4th EV since 2020, and I see no reason to ever go back to ICE car no matter how much cheaper they have become. Love this channel BTW!
Way less noise pollution from EV because the government is very active to reduce the pollution. However, go to India & us a, where ICE vehicles are mainstream & the noise is ... 😅
China has been very heavily dependent on mid east oil for light medium transport. It was a matter of strategic vulnerability. It is seeking to transition to 'new energy' transport as quickly as possible. .
It is much more that China business is far more capitalist than USA. (Obviously not the government). They see a money making opportunity and pile in full time. FAB's and semi-conductors, solar, wind turbines, EV cars; they can make a shed load of money selling this stuff to the world as the USA is old money with all the power.
Switching to electric vehicles has also greatly reduced noise pollution in Chinese cities. The vast Chinese high speed railway network (all powered by electricity) has reduced the need for domestic plane journeys, and thereby aviation fuel.
Right on. Same here in NZ although our renewables are quite high, a lot of money is sent overseas to pay for oil. Everyone should be stampeding to get the fleet converted to electric.
A lesson for the US. The US may produce more oil and be at record high levels, it cannot refine it and has to import most of its usable product. So not only will it have a product it cannot sell, it will still be even more dependent on imports if it does not adapt.
@@moarpwr4414- the US could still follow China’s lead and burn coal…and add more nukes. But the real solution will be too build new refineries, to your point.
@@vincentoflynn6996 my home solar system charges my EV for free. Oil can't compete with that. Most EV owners I know have or are planning to do the same.
In China, commercial vans are 90% electric by now, I also notice rapid increase in 3-5 tons new fully electric trucks, and see them often on the roads and superchargers
you’re right about air pollution in china it has improved dramatically over the last 10 years. i live in shanghai - i’ve been here almost 12 years now and when i first got here it was BRUTAL. now there’s an occasional heavily polluted day but typically it’s better than most large european cities.
Reasons for optimism. Great news. Let’s hope this trend occurs elsewhere in the world and gathers momentum. Apparently half of the world’s shipping is merely carrying fossil fuels and itself accounts for an enormous consumption of low grade polluting oil
Good. Now if only Japan could start switching diesel trucks and passenger cars with EVs. It blows my mind that Japan has to import 100% of its oil and yet they arent trying to switch to EVs. Mind Boggling!
path dependance, its extremely hard to abandon diesel technology you've been developing for the last 100 years, all the energy infrastructure and car companies are in this symbiosis relationship for way too long. Electricity are already in constant shortage in Japan for a long time that Japanese gov has to subsidize its people to pay their electricity bills, also they are very cagey about nuclear power since Fukushima incident, politicians are afraid of public backlash they don't dare to even bring it up.
...and job security for little kids in Africa and S. America too!!!! That's important..... But still, 100,000mi for ROI environmentally....... That's significantoo>>>>>>>>>>>
Its economical to buy an EV and run it with electricity - and if you got solar panels, you get most of it for free. Its not only good for your city (less smog), but also good for the environment. So why not?
One important point is China is not the largest emitter per capita which is what matters. I think the US emissions are double that of China as is Australia.
True, but globally seen China, with a population of 1.5 Billion people, it has more 'capitas' than whole Europe, whole North America and whole Australia and New Zealand added together.
China still produces most of its electricity by burning coal (about 60%) and that's not projected to shrink or stop anytime in the near future. China's coal is considered one of the 'dirtier' types and contributes a lot to its air pollution problems. Yep, coal is a fossil fuel just like oil and natural gas.
Is actually the purpose of electric vehicles from my point of view. Instead of exporting money , more of it stays in the economy that created the money rather than giving it away to purchase crude oil.
Ev cars is the future equipped with AI so you will not boring for long drive at that point you can sleep and watch move etc completely different to gas car
Energy self sufficiency is a National Security issue, so I don’t understand why in Australia the LNP along with “ right wing” media continue to pander to the fossil fuel industry
Jobs Jobs Jobs!!! That is all a right winger will say when it comes to something that pollutes…. Renewable and social service jobs don’t count in their eyes…. No kickbacks for the crooked politicians so the jobs aren’t real jobs in their eyes
@@cryptorenegade1406 Trump threatens EU with tariffs over oil and gas imports. Would be nice to be energy self sufficient. Somehow the EU don't call the US a bully but think they represent the free world. The US is no more Democracy but Oligarchy funded by the Oil and Gas lobby. The energy transition will eventually bring this to a end.
@@justinstephenson9360 I've heard of this. However, I'm surprised it's didn't takeoff yet. I guess the slow adoption is because of price. I personally would like to see different "grades" of alternative plastics such as degrades in 1 month, 1 year, 10 year, 100 year depending on the application.
@@justinstephenson9360 I saw bamboo spoons at McDonalds in Singapore. However, I don't see this working for making a plastic bag alternative. Perhaps something resembling a paper bag or a paper staw but stronger is possible using bamboo?
@@dr.x4050 The reason Petro is cheaper is because the plastics are made with the waste products of fuel production. The feed stock of plastics isn't just cheap, it has a negative cost since the companies would have to pay to get rid of the stuff otherwise. Plants cannot compete with a negative cost resource. Once the shift to electric vehicles is complete, the vegetative feedstock will be cheaper.
@@freeheeler09 Well, Norway still has way more ICU Cars (Diesel and Gasoline) than electric cars on the road. But true, when you have 30% electric cars in the fleet you need 30% less gas stations. And it's predictable that the market share of electric cars will grow more and more.
Next year 100 percent of new car sales in Norway will be evs. Family cars and vans that is. Most buses are already electic. It goes without saying that fossil fuel sales will drop.
@@thorblau7943 Actually the demand decrease faster than the percentage of ICE cars. That's because new cars are used a lot more. Most of the ten year old or more only drive a few 1000 km a year. You don't buy a new car to be sitting in the garage 99% of the time.
Would be interesting to see if Australia’s oil consumption has also dropped - I see a lot more EVs on the road now and not just Teslas. Personally I haven’t been in a servo other than for coffee, air and the occasional charging session since I sold my last ICE car.
The oil bubble will burst then. Many oil reserves are on the balance sheet of the companies. Estimated over $1000.000.000.000 of total value. If that is not gonna be turned into refined products it's gonna deflate the whole stock value of those companies.
@@pranshukrishna5105shipping and mining as well which use tremendous amount of energy. China still relying on coal which is 53% of energy source in 2024, from 57% in 2021. Switching to EV maybe means switching to coal.
@@arttellama2408 China will build out renewables(fastest in solar and wind as of 2023) and so they may be able to phase out coal sooner then you might expect
Security concerns are a big one too. As long as China is dependent on oil imports, the US, with it's dominate navy, will control what China can or cannot do militarily.
Umm.. analysts usually miss the fact that while rising EV use reduces gasoline & diesel consumption, it ALSO reduces the service products and industry for fossil engines: oil, maintenance and repairs, and all their fossil consumption. This means a cascade of demand reduction as industry no longer needs to make as much lubricants, repair products, transmissions, etc. And the entire fuel consumption of deliveries and trucks used to haul maintenance parts and service techs will also go away.
I need to sell off my ICE oil and coolant hoard while it is still worth something the last year and 1/2 with an EV I only top up the windscreen fluid and tires and the car tells me to. The few times I have driven an ICE car it is so vintage and clunky.
@@JonathanTamm I know what you mean, I had to move someone's ICE last week, it was like what I imagine a model T Ford must have felt like, turn a key to star, 3 peddles and a gear stick ! such fun.....not and don't get me going about the noise and smells plus it was cold as it didn't heat itself instantly like a real car does, real car as in an EV, when I got back in I asked to see if he had a Nokia phone as well !
EV cars in Thailand are gaining ground. The issuse with pollution here is mainly from crop burning in Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Vietnam and of course Thailand farms as well. It is impossible to control the smoke coming over the borders.
I don’t think people will throw away their ICE cars when they get an EV. They will just use them much less. Due to living on low income in retirement, I have reduced my driving and would only drive my Toyota as a last resort if I had an EV. It too would stay home for solar storage most of the time.
I thought of another problem I haven't heard anyone speak of. After we refine out the gasoline kerosene diesel and some other stuff from crude, we are left with new roads. Asphalt. What are we going to drive our EVs on?
Its exponential. 2 to 4/ 4 to 8/ 8 to 16/ 16 to 32/ 32 to 64/ 64 to 128/ 128 to 256/ 256 to 512/ 512 to 1024/ It will be over exponential fast for Oil. Thank You Sam for your Videos. Xmas and a good New Year. What a times it is.❤👍
Chinese governmeent makes it very very difficult to register ICE vehicles which carries a unique registration plate. Whereas EV registration ia super easy.
Depends on Region. In Big Cities where Pollution is "an Issue" like Shanghai, Beijing, etc ...... Quota for ICE have been reduced due to POLLUTION. Whilst in rural areas .. ICE permits are still possible.
My understanding is that China built a lot of coal power CAPACITY intending to use it as baseload to stabilise variable renewable production rates, but that those plants don't actually operate at full capacity. I read somewhere that the govt now has to pay many of them to stay operating because they're needed so little that it's uneconomical now. They're looking at closing some early now given their renewables push succeeded beyond initial assumptions. As for coal for steelmaking, they just came up with a much faster way to make steel (6 hours down to 6 seconds) that completely eliminates the need for coking coal. So once that tech is rolled out, they won't need coal for that either.
@@nurainiarsad7395 China still relies on coal for most of its electricity production, something like 60% (2023), and that's not projected to shrink significantly in the future. Plenty of coal in China, it'll still be the predominate means of energy generation for quite a while.
Unfortunately,we live in a brainwashed society here in Australia, I tried to have a sensible debate at work, and explained we don't produce oil, and have a lot of lithium and copper,so EVs would be a boost for Australia, the response I got was why can't we have a nuclear waste dump.We are living in a backward nation
One thing that Western countries, Japan, and Many other countries don’t understand is the pace in which the Chinese are developing, it is unprecedented in the history of the world
If we need more aviation fuel, what do we do with all of the petrol that will be spare? The ratios of fuels coming out of fractional distillation is not something that can be adjusted to a great extent.
Chinese Transport will be fully be EV in next 10 years. Industrial demand will fall by half. So 60% demand will drop within next 10 years. Other oil demand will fall by 15%. China produces 4 mn barrels/day. So china will not import any crude by 2035
whats most important for the chinease is national security. oil is a weapon of war and china is getting ready for something. there is a reason they are investing so much in nuclear power and solar. if you can keep your economy running during a war, you cannot be defeated.
Highspeed rail in China is electrified. Just extrapolate how much jet fuel China has already avoided from consuming as a result. Then extrapolate that into the future. Now, imagine if the leaders in the West / US had done the same instead of the trillions on weapons and fossil fuels based vehicles / infrastructure.
The threat of blocking Malacca Strait against China is less and less relevant by the day. China needs less oil import over time. In addition, the Northern Sea Route via Russia is opening up. China also has strategic oil reserves as well as the world's largest Navy and direct energy import from Russia via lands.
@@stevenbarrett7648 ， Not necessarily, especially when the pipeline lies across on Russia's and China's land. Any sabotage as you suggested would be easily tracked down and possibly prevented. After all, in terms of technology and protection of national sovereignty and dignity, Russia and China are very much unlike the Federal Republic of Germany, which doesn't even have the courage to find out, let alone to announce, who the freaking hell blew up their Nord Stream 2 pipeline which used to provide them inexpensive energy from Russia for years. And now they were coerced by the US to purchased natural gas from the US at 4X the price of that in the US.
I think the reason behind less oil consumption is a much less of an effect of electric cars and hybrids, but rather a sign of economic downturn. I don't have the exact data, but motor vehicles only use ~30% of oil consumed...
النفط سوف يبقي إلى مئة سنة القادمة لأنه يستخدم في كثير من الصناعات نسبه استخدامه في السيارات سوف ينخفض في بعض مناطق العالم ولكن ليس كل أنحاء العالم نحتاج النفط لوقود الطائرات والبلاستيك وزيوت المحركات ولغاز الطبخ وللشحانات النقل الكبيرة و لسفن ,و للمركبات العسكرية والدبابات هذه كلها مشتقات النفط لا يمكن استبدالها بسهولة مثل السيارات يمكن استبدالها بسيارات الكهربائية
fully agree, if 100% of new vehicules were EVS, it would take 10-15 years to replace 90% of current car fleet. That applies to most countries but you should have a few ICE cars still around but being less active. transportation being 30% of CO2 emmissions that would clean the air very quickly if on top of that they keep on reducing coal electricity generated, China could be almost carbon neutral by 2040-45 I remember how the air was during COVID in mexico city when no cars would be around.
But China electricity mainly comes from burning coal, which makes more air pollution than oil, more than 65% if its power plants are generating power by burning coal,
Oil consumption is going down but it’s not going away. Developing countries are still using a lot of gasoline. Not only that, but as you said oil is still needed for fertilizer for agriculture and the plastics to build all those EVs out there. So, oil isn’t going away but gasoline demand will continue to gradually decrease over time. So will diesel. Just imagine you won’t be stuck behind a stinky diesel car or truck anymore..now that’s progress!😊👍. Merry Christmas!
Demand will continue to decline causing production to reduce further. The pendulum will swing to parts aren't produced because demand declines to where it isn't even financially feasible to own and operate ICE. Disel semi will take significantly longer to swap over but the bean counters will see the writing on the wall. This pivot will happen crazy fast. Once I saw what was coming I dumped my two ICE vehicles. My home is purely electric, solar panels, two electric vehicles etc. People will lose their minds and looks to blame someone.
EVs are just part of the story. You are also seeing in China a move to make a lot of commercial trucks to run on Natural Gas instead of Diesel. And we are also seeing a lot of deflationary forces take effect from a slowing economy that are just killing overall demand. The world wide economy for the next few years will most likely see Oil crash through the floor - but the other side of that will see oil come back like crazy. The reason is because you have most of the population of the world living in 3rd world countries - and they have zero infrastructure for EVs. But yes oil consumption will slow for a while during over all economic downturn.
Removing the dependence on oil removes the ability of the US blockade the fuel delivery if China were to attempt an invasion of Taiwan. I’m not saying they will, but it removes one of reasons why they wouldn’t.
The best reason for owning a tesla is that it's the most American made car by more Americans, does not have a union or dealership network, and uses 100% American fuel that does not enrich our enemies.
Aviation fuel consumption can't increase by 70% if gas consumption falls by 50%. You need to make gas to get the fuel oil fraction. 35/40 % gas and 35/40 % light oil ( diesel-jet fuel. ).. And where will the blacktop for roads come from?
India's is increasing. Over 2024 India accounts for 25% of total oil consumption *growth* globally and it is forecast to repeat in 2025. In December 2023 it was consuming 5.44 million bbl per day, and as of Nov 2024 consumption had increased 9.3% year on year. Still has a long way to go to meet China's consumption at 16.4 million b/d in 2023. As more ICE vehicles are removed from the roads in developed states they are exported to Africa's second-hand markets, so consumption is increasing there. And at 4.155 it's the only continent with a fertility rate of greater than 2.1. India has about 50 million more people presently and half the fertility rate, so Africa will soon pass India in population.
Can one imagine that when China successfully starts mining Helium 3 from the moon? The energy that can be harvested will end the lithium needed for EV batteries.
Impressive numbers, especially when you consider that China consumes a major percentage of the the worldwide crude oil produced. So it might probably hav a 100x bigger effect than when the 5.5 Million Norwegians go electric.
Thanks Sam oil is only tolerable surely provided it is not burned, still necessary for plastics ok but lower demand will increase prices .At last a force for the lazy food retailers to change their ways and stop the bloody stuff getting everywhere , we are all eating it now ! Lubricants used to love the smell of Castrol R ( vegetable oil still the highest film strength ) .in my old ic engined bikes and sometimes run on Methanol totally. Green ..ish yes I am. bit hypocritical on this I suppose . Bring on the the dawn of common sense ! Happy Christmas 🎉
Consumption might have fallen; but demand is still huge. Imagine if China didn't impose EV by 2030 policy. Indonesia trying 2 diversify away from ICE 2 EV coz gov.ri have 2 subsidize 87 grade petrol
China's fuel consumption is already falling. Worldwide fuel use in 2023 plateaued and the suggestion was that it would decline in 2024. we will have to wait until next year to find out.
Hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, hydrogen, and energy storage will eventually reduce the fossil fuel consumption greatly and this has been the grand plan for a long time, at least for China.
I see some comments about Germany, Japan or Australia not waking up to this new reality. In fact, these countries are still colonies at some level and cannot make decisions for themselves.
Let me hear your thoughts about the impact this will have on the oil price. Will it go down due to an oversupply or up due to fix cost progression (lower amount at the same fix production costs). And how would Trump‘s „drill baby drill“ impact that as the oil produced (additionally) in the US seemingly cannot be used in the US refineries and is ending up in export markets?
In the short term, the price will drop. But in the long term, the price of oil will increase. The price of gasoline will increase as oil will mainly be refined and used for other purposes.
And by reducing your fossil fuel consumption (as a country) you are simply reducing the amount of money you are sending overseas.
Ross, bingo!
Agreed
China oil company converts gas stations into EV charging stations
You also have to wonder how much money from crude oil revenue funds terrorism around the world?
This *PLUS* you reduce your dependence on & exposure to the US dollar. Which is (was?) the default energy currency.
It's true! I'm been living in China for 18 years. Up until the mid-2010s, seeing blue sky in Shanghai center is a rarity, people would take photo of blue sky and post on social media to express their joy. Today blue sky is not a thing that is worthy of posting. Sure if it's raining for a week then blue sky appears at weekend, that is a joy to celebrate and that is same anywhere in the world. I've bought my 4th EV since 2020, and I see no reason to ever go back to ICE car no matter how much cheaper they have become. Love this channel BTW!
I know it's true....I've see pics of the fires..................
@@crforfreedom7407no you haven't. You absolute 🤡
So they have cut back on spraying the skys 😂. Some good come out of the lies
I was in China in 2002 in Chengdu and Kunming. Was there again earlier this year, and the walking experience is completely different!
Way less noise pollution from EV because the government is very active to reduce the pollution.
However, go to India & us a, where ICE vehicles are mainstream & the noise is ... 😅
China has been very heavily dependent on mid east oil for light medium transport. It was a matter of strategic vulnerability. It is seeking to transition to 'new energy' transport as quickly as possible.
.
It is much more that China business is far more capitalist than USA. (Obviously not the government). They see a money making opportunity and pile in full time. FAB's and semi-conductors, solar, wind turbines, EV cars; they can make a shed load of money selling this stuff to the world as the USA is old money with all the power.
Switching to electric vehicles has also greatly reduced noise pollution in Chinese cities.
The vast Chinese high speed railway network (all powered by electricity) has reduced the need for domestic plane journeys, and thereby aviation fuel.
Any nation that imports most of its oil should move to renewables faster than anyone else. A lesson for Australia.
Right on. Same here in NZ although our renewables are quite high, a lot of money is sent overseas to pay for oil. Everyone should be stampeding to get the fleet converted to electric.
you are a dreamer
A lesson for the US. The US may produce more oil and be at record high levels, it cannot refine it and has to import most of its usable product. So not only will it have a product it cannot sell, it will still be even more dependent on imports if it does not adapt.
@@moarpwr4414- the US could still follow China’s lead and burn coal…and add more nukes. But the real solution will be too build new refineries, to your point.
@@Jason-rs6coChange is coming. You are trying to hold the tide back. Good luck with that! 😂
This solar/wind revolution means that every country can be energy rich. This is huge. It will level the playing field more than anything.
Makes sense. Oil is too expensive to waste money on.
Oil is cheap.....
Governments raise taxes, just wait till the honeymoon period is over for EVs
People will cry for the days of cheap fuel
@@vincentoflynn6996 Just wait until we are not breathing in so much toxic fumes. Won't that be a good thing?
Oil is subsidized out the kazoo to make it cheap.
@@vincentoflynn6996 Oil is very expensive!! My solar panels give me electric power for free. Educate yourself.
@@vincentoflynn6996 my home solar system charges my EV for free. Oil can't compete with that.
Most EV owners I know have or are planning to do the same.
Energy Independence-is a big deal.Clean healthy air is a BIG DEAL.
Having clean air in populated cities are refreshing.
@@FrankiePo89 Don't forget all the Job Security for the little kids in Africa and S.Am.... It's a "WIN/WIN" for sure...........
Glad to hear this!!!! It means even CHEAPER gas prices for me..............
In China, commercial vans are 90% electric by now, I also notice rapid increase in 3-5 tons new fully electric trucks, and see them often on the roads and superchargers
you’re right about air pollution in china it has improved dramatically over the last 10 years. i live in shanghai - i’ve been here almost 12 years now and when i first got here it was BRUTAL. now there’s an occasional heavily polluted day but typically it’s better than most large european cities.
The sky don't lie.
Lower pollution can also means lower manufacturing and infra activities. China energy is still 53% coal.
It depends though if you check on the Chinese government side or other sources
Keep taking the Chinese medicine
@@Cars-k8e He lives there. U can see and smell it
Reasons for optimism. Great news. Let’s hope this trend occurs elsewhere in the world and gathers momentum. Apparently half of the world’s shipping is merely carrying fossil fuels and itself accounts for an enormous consumption of low grade polluting oil
Let’s hope other countries expand coal-burning power plants by the hundreds as China has.
Good. Now if only Japan could start switching diesel trucks and passenger cars with EVs. It blows my mind that Japan has to import 100% of its oil and yet they arent trying to switch to EVs. Mind Boggling!
because of the big car companies in there. toyota is even too stubborn to switch EV.
Nope it was at demand of USA
does that mean anything to wall street 🎉
path dependance, its extremely hard to abandon diesel technology you've been developing for the last 100 years, all the energy infrastructure and car companies are in this symbiosis relationship for way too long. Electricity are already in constant shortage in Japan for a long time that Japanese gov has to subsidize its people to pay their electricity bills, also they are very cagey about nuclear power since Fukushima incident, politicians are afraid of public backlash they don't dare to even bring it up.
They know something the rest of the world doesn't - like PERHAPS EV's are a dead end street.
Good very good …less pollution too.
Do any of those replying read? China has added hundreds of fired power plants to meet electrical demands.
...and job security for little kids in Africa and S. America too!!!! That's important.....
But still, 100,000mi for ROI environmentally....... That's significantoo>>>>>>>>>>>
Its economical to buy an EV and run it with electricity - and if you got solar panels, you get most of it for free. Its not only good for your city (less smog), but also good for the environment. So why not?
Because occasionally you might have to stop an extra ten minutes on your thousand kilometre trip and your time is so precious you cant afford that ?
And you’d miss the brum-brum sounds too much. So sad.
Pollution goes to the suburb where yo have these mines and power plants feeding the factories of solar panels, copper wires and batteries.
The factories of solar panels can just put the panels on the roof and make more panels using energy generated by the panels made by the other panels.
When will Australia wake up and embrace the obvious advantages of EVs?
I read that EV sales were growing rapidly in Australia, driven by a big increase in the number of new EVs coming onto the market from China.
It's happening. We are getting into the steep bit of the S curve soon.
One important point is China is not the largest emitter per capita which is what matters. I think the US emissions are double that of China as is Australia.
True, but globally seen China, with a population of 1.5 Billion people, it has more 'capitas' than whole Europe, whole North America and whole Australia and New Zealand added together.
China still produces most of its electricity by burning coal (about 60%) and that's not projected to shrink or stop anytime in the near future. China's coal is considered one of the 'dirtier' types and contributes a lot to its air pollution problems. Yep, coal is a fossil fuel just like oil and natural gas.
Is actually the purpose of electric vehicles from my point of view. Instead of exporting money , more of it stays in the economy that created the money rather than giving it away to purchase crude oil.
Ev cars is the future equipped with AI so you will not boring for long drive at that point you can sleep and watch move etc completely different to gas car
Energy self sufficiency is a National Security issue, so I don’t understand why in Australia the LNP along with “ right wing” media continue to pander to the fossil fuel industry
Here in Europe right wing also love fossile fuels. Part of the conservative thinking and unwillingness to change.
Because America is the biggest exporter of fossil fuels
Jobs Jobs Jobs!!! That is all a right winger will say when it comes to something that pollutes…. Renewable and social service jobs don’t count in their eyes…. No kickbacks for the crooked politicians so the jobs aren’t real jobs in their eyes
@@cryptorenegade1406 Trump threatens EU with tariffs over oil and gas imports. Would be nice to be energy self sufficient. Somehow the EU don't call the US a bully but think they represent the free world. The US is no more Democracy but Oligarchy funded by the Oil and Gas lobby. The energy transition will eventually bring this to a end.
For as ukranians this is a question of life and deth litteraly. Go go EVs!
Good
Even most plastics are not needed. These plastics are not biodegradable. An alternative is needed.
There is some movement in industry to create vegetative mimics of plastics we now use. Expect that whole area to grow.
For many uses we already have an alternative, one that China has in abundance, bamboo usually moulded
@@justinstephenson9360 I've heard of this. However, I'm surprised it's didn't takeoff yet. I guess the slow adoption is because of price. I personally would like to see different "grades" of alternative plastics such as degrades in 1 month, 1 year, 10 year, 100 year depending on the application.
@@justinstephenson9360 I saw bamboo spoons at McDonalds in Singapore. However, I don't see this working for making a plastic bag alternative. Perhaps something resembling a paper bag or a paper staw but stronger is possible using bamboo?
@@dr.x4050 The reason Petro is cheaper is because the plastics are made with the waste products of fuel production. The feed stock of plastics isn't just cheap, it has a negative cost since the companies would have to pay to get rid of the stuff otherwise. Plants cannot compete with a negative cost resource. Once the shift to electric vehicles is complete, the vegetative feedstock will be cheaper.
There will come a time when its not financially viable to operate gas stations as there arent enough customers.
Already happened in China and Norway.
@@freeheeler09 Well, Norway still has way more ICU Cars (Diesel and Gasoline) than electric cars on the road. But true, when you have 30% electric cars in the fleet you need 30% less gas stations.
And it's predictable that the market share of electric cars will grow more and more.
Next year 100 percent of new car sales in Norway will be evs. Family cars and vans that is. Most buses are already electic. It goes without saying that fossil fuel sales will drop.
@@thorblau7943 Actually the demand decrease faster than the percentage of ICE cars. That's because new cars are used a lot more. Most of the ten year old or more only drive a few 1000 km a year. You don't buy a new car to be sitting in the garage 99% of the time.
They already make the most money by selling coffee and snacks so a quick switch to charge stations will not hurt em much
Would be interesting to see if Australia’s oil consumption has also dropped - I see a lot more EVs on the road now and not just Teslas.
Personally I haven’t been in a servo other than for coffee, air and the occasional charging session since I sold my last ICE car.
The oil bubble will burst then. Many oil reserves are on the balance sheet of the companies. Estimated over $1000.000.000.000 of total value. If that is not gonna be turned into refined products it's gonna deflate the whole stock value of those companies.
Thats a good point, bit like the Japanese car companies valuation of their factories, all over inflated
What is this reduction in income going to do to the 'vanity' projects that Saudi is hell bent on building?
No more deaths over oil
No more deaths over oil, but lot of death from all the new coal fired power plants China has built.
Coal 😮 Crude Both are Decreasing
End of an Era
aviation industry will still use oil
But not cars or trucks. Fossil fuels are as unsafe a long-term bet as buying coastal property!
Tectonic plate shift/volcanoes. Earth will protect itself from us
@@pranshukrishna5105shipping and mining as well which use tremendous amount of energy. China still relying on coal which is 53% of energy source in 2024, from 57% in 2021. Switching to EV maybe means switching to coal.
@@arttellama2408 China will build out renewables(fastest in solar and wind as of 2023) and so they may be able to phase out coal sooner then you might expect
Oil and war go hand in hand. War can unfortunately change any positive development abruptly. Let's pray they don't use this card to perpetuate oil
GREEN intiative DOES work!!
Security concerns are a big one too. As long as China is dependent on oil imports, the US, with it's dominate navy, will control what China can or cannot do militarily.
Umm.. analysts usually miss the fact that while rising EV use reduces gasoline & diesel consumption, it ALSO reduces the service products and industry for fossil engines: oil, maintenance and repairs, and all their fossil consumption.
This means a cascade of demand reduction as industry no longer needs to make as much lubricants, repair products, transmissions, etc.
And the entire fuel consumption of deliveries and trucks used to haul maintenance parts and service techs will also go away.
So even less pollution and less trucks on the road, another win....for some !
I need to sell off my ICE oil and coolant hoard while it is still worth something the last year and 1/2 with an EV I only top up the windscreen fluid and tires and the car tells me to. The few times I have driven an ICE car it is so vintage and clunky.
@@JonathanTamm I know what you mean, I had to move someone's ICE last week, it was like what I imagine a model T Ford must have felt like, turn a key to star, 3 peddles and a gear stick ! such fun.....not and don't get me going about the noise and smells plus it was cold as it didn't heat itself instantly like a real car does, real car as in an EV, when I got back in I asked to see if he had a Nokia phone as well !
Well yes, but, like all new technologies it also creates a load of new jobs in that sector.
EV cars in Thailand are gaining ground. The issuse with pollution here is mainly from crop burning in Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Vietnam and of course Thailand farms as well. It is impossible to control the smoke coming over the borders.
EV uptake might be faster in China, than in other countries.
Fastest EV uptake is Norway. Ironically, one of the world’s oil producers.
It is! Except for Norway I think.
Its being forced on the Chinese population. The average person in China doesn't get to decide what's best for their needs.
With oil going down, I think glass will have a resurgence. Glass bottles, milk jugs, etc.
The US should learn from this but we say drill baby drill
I don’t think people will throw away their ICE cars when they get an EV. They will just use them much less. Due to living on low income in retirement, I have reduced my driving and would only drive my Toyota as a last resort if I had an EV. It too would stay home for solar storage most of the time.
Good News!
I thought of another problem I haven't heard anyone speak of. After we refine out the gasoline kerosene diesel and some other stuff from crude, we are left with new roads. Asphalt. What are we going to drive our EVs on?
Especially as tar is the first product of the crude oil.
On road. There are already alternatives for that.
Its exponential.
2 to 4/
4 to 8/
8 to 16/
16 to 32/
32 to 64/
64 to 128/
128 to 256/
256 to 512/
512 to 1024/
It will be over exponential fast for Oil. Thank You Sam for your Videos. Xmas and a good New Year. What a times it is.❤👍
This is the big trend to watch in 2025
Chinese governmeent makes it very very difficult to register ICE vehicles which carries a unique registration plate. Whereas EV registration ia super easy.
Depends on Region. In Big Cities where Pollution is "an Issue" like Shanghai, Beijing, etc ...... Quota for ICE have been reduced due to POLLUTION. Whilst in rural areas .. ICE permits are still possible.
Yep be self sufficient on resources .
Good news hopefully coal too…
My understanding is that China built a lot of coal power CAPACITY intending to use it as baseload to stabilise variable renewable production rates, but that those plants don't actually operate at full capacity. I read somewhere that the govt now has to pay many of them to stay operating because they're needed so little that it's uneconomical now. They're looking at closing some early now given their renewables push succeeded beyond initial assumptions.
As for coal for steelmaking, they just came up with a much faster way to make steel (6 hours down to 6 seconds) that completely eliminates the need for coking coal. So once that tech is rolled out, they won't need coal for that either.
@@nurainiarsad7395 China still relies on coal for most of its electricity production, something like 60% (2023), and that's not projected to shrink significantly in the future. Plenty of coal in China, it'll still be the predominate means of energy generation for quite a while.
So China is switching from oil to coal… and China's main coal suppliers are Indonesia, Russia, and Australia…good news for Oz, a Sam?
President Musk's first lady says drill baby drill😂
I just came back from China, where coal-fired power plants are everywhere. Xi’s wife says did baby dig for coal.
In Australia we import 90% of our daily oil needs. We're extremely oil poor. The sooner we get rid of all ICE cars, the better.
Unfortunately,we live in a brainwashed society here in Australia, I tried to have a sensible debate at work, and explained we don't produce oil, and have a lot of lithium and copper,so EVs would be a boost for Australia, the response I got was why can't we have a nuclear waste dump.We are living in a backward nation
And noise is much quieter too
One thing that Western countries, Japan, and Many other countries don’t understand is the pace in which the Chinese are developing, it is unprecedented in the history of the world
If we need more aviation fuel, what do we do with all of the petrol that will be spare? The ratios of fuels coming out of fractional distillation is not something that can be adjusted to a great extent.
Just want to say thanks, Mr Viking, for all your facts-based optimism about the future. You really help. Merry Christmas and good on ya.
Chinese Transport will be fully be EV in next 10 years. Industrial demand will fall by half. So 60% demand will drop within next 10 years. Other oil demand will fall by 15%. China produces 4 mn barrels/day. So china will not import any crude by 2035
If rest of the developed world do them, Oil demand will fall by 40%. So Oil Demand will fall to 60-70mn bbl/day
whats most important for the chinease is national security. oil is a weapon of war and china is getting ready for something. there is a reason they are investing so much in nuclear power and solar. if you can keep your economy running during a war, you cannot be defeated.
Electrification of cars is first, trucks second, and planes last because that is very challenging.
Highspeed rail in China is electrified. Just extrapolate how much jet fuel China has already avoided from consuming as a result. Then extrapolate that into the future. Now, imagine if the leaders in the West / US had done the same instead of the trillions on weapons and fossil fuels based vehicles / infrastructure.
China oil company converts gas stations into EV charging stations
The threat of blocking Malacca Strait against China is less and less relevant by the day. China needs less oil import over time. In addition, the Northern Sea Route via Russia is opening up. China also has strategic oil reserves as well as the world's largest Navy and direct energy import from Russia via lands.
Anything land based is so easy to sabotage, one tiny bomb and it's down for weeks plus patrolling such a long pipeline will be a nightmare.
@@stevenbarrett7648 ， Not necessarily, especially when the pipeline lies across on Russia's and China's land. Any sabotage as you suggested would be easily tracked down and possibly prevented.
After all, in terms of technology and protection of national sovereignty and dignity, Russia and China are very much unlike the Federal Republic of Germany, which doesn't even have the courage to find out, let alone to announce, who the freaking hell blew up their Nord Stream 2 pipeline which used to provide them inexpensive energy from Russia for years. And now they were coerced by the US to purchased natural gas from the US at 4X the price of that in the US.
I think the reason behind less oil consumption is a much less of an effect of electric cars and hybrids, but rather a sign of economic downturn. I don't have the exact data, but motor vehicles only use ~30% of oil consumed...
Well, combustibles will be less in demand for car use, and more so for air travel (in China)
With the reduction in oil consumption....it will make wars for control of fossil fuel resources less profitable.
النفط سوف يبقي إلى مئة سنة القادمة
لأنه يستخدم في كثير من الصناعات
نسبه استخدامه في السيارات سوف ينخفض في بعض مناطق العالم ولكن ليس كل أنحاء العالم
نحتاج النفط لوقود الطائرات والبلاستيك وزيوت المحركات ولغاز الطبخ وللشحانات النقل الكبيرة و لسفن ,و للمركبات العسكرية والدبابات
هذه كلها مشتقات النفط لا يمكن استبدالها بسهولة مثل السيارات يمكن استبدالها بسيارات الكهربائية
Super news. Our gasoline will be cheaper!
I wonder if the experts at der spiegel had foreseen that germany would return to braun coal.
fully agree,
if 100% of new vehicules were EVS, it would take 10-15 years to replace 90% of current car fleet.
That applies to most countries but you should have a few ICE cars still around but being less active.
transportation being 30% of CO2 emmissions that would clean the air very quickly
if on top of that they keep on reducing coal electricity generated, China could be almost carbon neutral by 2040-45
I remember how the air was during COVID in mexico city when no cars would be around.
But China electricity mainly comes from burning coal, which makes more air pollution than oil, more than 65% if its power plants are generating power by burning coal,
Oil consumption is going down but it’s not going away. Developing countries are still using a lot of gasoline. Not only that, but as you said oil is still needed for fertilizer for agriculture and the plastics to build all those EVs out there. So, oil isn’t going away but gasoline demand will continue to gradually decrease over time. So will diesel. Just imagine you won’t be stuck behind a stinky diesel car or truck anymore..now that’s progress!😊👍. Merry Christmas!
Norwaywill soon be in economic trouble because their main export is oil
Many places around the world are running out of water in their aquifers. How much crude oil reserves are still available?
Read about abiotic iol
Hope it gose down in UK as well, fuel prices are reduculas.
Chinese factories require less coal powered energy, Chinese consumers require less amount of petrol. Great for the environment.
Would be good to hear some analysis of Russia..
Demand will continue to decline causing production to reduce further. The pendulum will swing to parts aren't produced because demand declines to where it isn't even financially feasible to own and operate ICE. Disel semi will take significantly longer to swap over but the bean counters will see the writing on the wall. This pivot will happen crazy fast. Once I saw what was coming I dumped my two ICE vehicles. My home is purely electric, solar panels, two electric vehicles etc. People will lose their minds and looks to blame someone.
EVs are just part of the story. You are also seeing in China a move to make a lot of commercial trucks to run on Natural Gas instead of Diesel. And we are also seeing a lot of deflationary forces take effect from a slowing economy that are just killing overall demand. The world wide economy for the next few years will most likely see Oil crash through the floor - but the other side of that will see oil come back like crazy. The reason is because you have most of the population of the world living in 3rd world countries - and they have zero infrastructure for EVs.
But yes oil consumption will slow for a while during over all economic downturn.
Removing the dependence on oil removes the ability of the US blockade the fuel delivery if China were to attempt an invasion of Taiwan. I’m not saying they will, but it removes one of reasons why they wouldn’t.
The best reason for owning a tesla is that it's the most American made car by more Americans, does not have a union or dealership network, and uses 100% American fuel that does not enrich our enemies.
Just as well you don't need oil to make plastics🙃
They can sell the refined oil elsewhere
Do you think the 200million 2 wheeler electric vehicles have had an impact
it is however a bellwether of things to come for the west.
Trump says, Drill baby Drill!
Is this yet another example of Trumps crass stupidity?
Yeah, it is 😂
Aviation fuel consumption can't increase by 70% if gas consumption falls by 50%. You need to make gas to get the fuel oil fraction. 35/40 % gas and 35/40 % light oil ( diesel-jet fuel. ).. And where will the blacktop for roads come from?
Mate - if you read a celtic name that begins in C - it's a hard C, like a K, not a soft C like an S.
If China’s oil consumption has peaked, does that mean the world’s oil consumption has peaked? If not now, when do you foresee that happening?
India's is increasing. Over 2024 India accounts for 25% of total oil consumption *growth* globally and it is forecast to repeat in 2025. In December 2023 it was consuming 5.44 million bbl per day, and as of Nov 2024 consumption had increased 9.3% year on year. Still has a long way to go to meet China's consumption at 16.4 million b/d in 2023.
As more ICE vehicles are removed from the roads in developed states they are exported to Africa's second-hand markets, so consumption is increasing there. And at 4.155 it's the only continent with a fertility rate of greater than 2.1. India has about 50 million more people presently and half the fertility rate, so Africa will soon pass India in population.
Can one imagine that when China successfully starts mining Helium 3 from the moon? The energy that can be harvested will end the lithium needed for EV batteries.
Impressive numbers, especially when you consider that China consumes a major percentage of the the worldwide crude oil produced. So it might probably hav a 100x bigger effect than when the 5.5 Million Norwegians go electric.
The downside: oil may become cheaper
Exactly what Joe Biden has wanted in the past 12 months.
Thanks Sam oil is only tolerable surely provided it is not burned, still necessary for plastics ok but lower demand will increase prices .At last a force for the lazy food retailers to change their ways and stop the bloody stuff getting everywhere , we are all eating it now ! Lubricants used to love the smell of Castrol R ( vegetable oil still the highest film strength ) .in my old ic engined bikes and sometimes run on Methanol totally. Green ..ish yes I am. bit hypocritical on this I suppose . Bring on the the dawn of common sense ! Happy Christmas 🎉
excellent, cheaper petrol
Consumption might have fallen; but demand is still huge. Imagine if China didn't impose EV by 2030 policy. Indonesia trying 2 diversify away from ICE 2 EV coz gov.ri have 2 subsidize 87 grade petrol
But I like this video
Gaslighting at its finest.
China's fuel consumption is already falling. Worldwide fuel use in 2023 plateaued and the suggestion was that it would decline in 2024. we will have to wait until next year to find out.
Thay will be a pay by the kilometre system to collect road tax .
Hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, hydrogen, and energy storage will eventually reduce the fossil fuel consumption greatly and this has been the grand plan for a long time, at least for China.
It is the retirement of ICE cars you are looking for.
Breaking news: people who drive EVs don't buy gas!
I see some comments about Germany, Japan or Australia not waking up to this new reality. In fact, these countries are still colonies at some level and cannot make decisions for themselves.
Electric cars impact gasoline usage. What is the rationale for predicting diesel demand will fall by a similar proportion?
Enjoying the channel. Many Thanks for you efforts. What is the charging infrastructure like in China? In the cities, Suburbs and inter-city?
Let me hear your thoughts about the impact this will have on the oil price. Will it go down due to an oversupply or up due to fix cost progression (lower amount at the same fix production costs).
And how would Trump‘s „drill baby drill“ impact that as the oil produced (additionally) in the US seemingly cannot be used in the US refineries and is ending up in export markets?
In the short term, the price will drop. But in the long term, the price of oil will increase. The price of gasoline will increase as oil will mainly be refined and used for other purposes.