In 2014 I did a tour of solar factories across China. Almost all were very impressive, and almost all had huge production rooms with hundreds of workers in each room, and tens of thousands of totla workers in some factory complexes (Yingli, Suntech, etc). But one stood out. It was a medium sized solar company, which was in fact a sub-brand of one of China's major state-controlled petrol-chemical companies. In that factory (In Nanjing), the were just a few workers in each production room. Only a few people walking around. I asked the sales girl if it was lunchtime. She said no. So I said where are all the workers? She said - This is it. Most of the production is done by robots.... So I asked who the few workers were. She said - They were robot technicians. After thinking about it awhile, I said - but why? Labour here is very cheap. Why use robots? She said - for a few reasons. Firstly, because while tech manufacturing labour in China is currently cheap, it won't be cheaper than India and other countries for a lot longer. Secondly, the quality of production is higher from robots, and no HR risk. And finally, because we also build robots. This Solar department partly exists just to test our own robots, which we need to be perfect so we can not only use them ourselves, but also sell them to other factories. We are also using them like this to make other products. Note - at that time the robots weren't humanoid, and probably didn't have a lot of AI. But I'm sure they've developed a LOT in the past 10 years...
I am 73 as a young man I envisioned being the owner of a robotic manufacturing company . My only task was robot naintence. Still yet to be true but getting closer by the day . Energy and robotics may be the best investments today . If everyone owned 5,000 watts of Solar production the world would be a completely different place. Imagine if everyone owned three robots , renting robot prduction maybe the future.
Andrew Yang said this 4 years ago. No one cared. He said you're not going to have a job. Nobody cared. He said we should just give you money. Nobody wanted it. Four years later. It wasn't even a conversation in anybody's campaign. Andrew Yang still alive. Maybe we should vote for him. Because 4 years ago, this is what he was saying. In this video, he's talking about a guy. Who made the video two days ago.
Yo my concern that is half the mater थरथरी हैव आ गौतमकल सप्तावद प्लान तो ट्रेवल्सिम , s lions share of 3/3 of their land stea कट्टरंटली से बातें श्रीद इस्टेल्संड , eith tspud deployment of these dolar panels and ste on the run up to 455 ge of solar pv lower ईंट मिडिचिंग सोडियम ओन स्टोरेज, घाट इस मोस्ट लेकरली तो मृत थे रिक्वायरमेंट ऑफ साल ऑफ एशियन on the surplus from china?
The perfect storm: - Humans valued only as a means to transfer UBI to large corporations. - Super intelligent surveillance systems. - Digital currency to neutralize dissidents. - RoboCops for law enforcement and suppression. - A global meaning crisis.
Add global climates further destabilizing --- the damages will far exceed robotic repair capacity. ( as long as both humans and robots don't overheat )
WE All Have To Be Special delivery Consultants In Your OWN Subject ? 10 Thousands Hour's Plus ➕ Use AI to Expand my knowledge Platform ? Use Technology to Up Your Game?
Fine! But, what if you did NOT need to wash windows for a living. You could employ a robot to do that on your behalf... Then, you'd still have a decent income, but could now spend MORE time with your family. 😊
@@kevinwhite2380 Well you would have to afford the robot and the no doubt hourly or monthly charge for the software and upgrades and maintenance and you would have to be able to charge enough for the robot to wash windows to support it and the needs of your family. The future will be great for the already wealthy, not for everyone else, Im believe.
I'm a plumber. My job is pretty safe. There is no way I can see that a robot could do what I can. This includes getting into confined spaces and dealing with all manner of slime and grime! Every job is different and sometimes you have to correct other people's work. Plus a robot will have to deal with crazy and wierd customers!
Hello Robert. Perhaps you’re safe for 10 years or so . Robot plumbers will be designed to scale , 4 ft models designed to work under counters and tight spaces and will fit into tight spaces better than humans. They have no thoughts and feelings about slime, grime , germs and human waste. They don’t have any issues with crazy human customers. The robot plumbers will have phd levels of mechanical engineering, plumbing sciences, hydrodynamics, fluid science, and every discipline that relates to plumbing. The lifetime experience of 100k master plumbers will be synthesized in every bot and be updated daily. The same paradigm will exist for robotic electricians, auto mechanics, and virtually every technical job that humans now do at a high cost. If you’re young, then this should be a concern as 20 years from now you will be rendered obsolete by bots that will perform your job better, faster, smarter and at 5% of the cost. I am sad to say that your feeling of job safety is unwarranted.
Plumbing, just like all manual labor, will absolutely be replaced. Robots can be configured in any size or dimension, we use robots everyday to get into confined spaces humans can’t reach, or is too hazardous to do so. This is about consolidation, not just robots. Owner operators / mom and pop operations are quickly becoming extinct. Private equity is already gobbling up competition. They are not interested whatsoever in expanding the cost of human labor. They’ll buy up every business they can get, consolidate operations under one roof, or in reality a neural net. They will accurately pre determine sourcing and minimize waste to nearly zero. AI powered robots won’t have to run back to get supplies it forget, or ran out of in the middle of a job. Work can be done 24/7 and never get called back on a mistake or conflict with code. There will of course be some plumbers during the transition but the vast majority of the work will be automated
Why does that comment have that “famous last words” ring about it? And surprise surprise, most people think that about their own jobs. I’ve done enough plumbing to know what you’re talking about. And sure some jobs will hold out longer and sure there ‘s the hype factor as well. But there’s a tsunami coming, and soon. It’s simple economics. I bet you you’ll see one walking down the street in 5 years and you’ll go, well huh, look at that. In 15 years you won’t look twice.
I think with this, poverty will probably rise like never seen. Not because of lack of resources but for the well known greed of those who have all the power. We tend to forget the typical evilness when we predict the future.
Not only that, but the greedy dont seem to care that starvation and homelessness frostbite never really produce any afterlives whatsoever, but they probably shadowbanned this comment or you or they might pretend you never read it and not reply back.
Yep... It's not good... It's NEVER been good. Humans are Essentially Evil little Selfish Greedy Monsters (by defenition actually) - I always tell people... If you wan't to see a Real Monster... just have a look in a Mirror.... Even "Advancement as a Civilization is ALWAYS a Greedy Selfish Forceful Push towards a Lifestyle Noone ever Needed or Asked for, which often goes horribly wrong"
What's the point of producing more and better stuff if there won't be anyone left to buy? Unless the UBI is raised to an equally massive level. Then we'd be outside of the capitalistic realm.
The stuff is not better. The physical case is being made to cull back a "wasteful population." They just need enough data to pass any historical litmus tests since the anti-savage, civilising and spread democracy campaigns drew too much criticism from historians
That IS THE PROBLEM! Our society was never intended to find our purpose via a 9-5 "job". This will allow humanity to reDISCOVER what it means to be human again.
@@IAMhuman-Divine You think it's that easy to throw away thousands of years of evolutionary programming? The need for purpose comes from it. And it's there to ensure survival. You won't change the programming in just a couple decades. So generations to come will be unhappy. Until evolutionary adaptation happens (or human self-destructs looking for ways to be happy)
I can honestly say this is one of the most important pieces of content ive comsumed in the last 5 years. I will literally use this to try to keep myself on the right side of this wave as it crashes down on jobs. I didnt even know about Tony Seba, will look him up. Thanks for the video, game changer for me, keep up the good work.
20 years ago the steel plant I worked in employed over 360 men and women, operated year round, producing 1/4 th the steel it produces today in 2024 with less then 150 men and women. Mostly due to automation... That's 210 less jobs.. and a 300 percent increase in production... corporate profits up... labor cost down.. the name of the game.
As for digital cameras, I worked at Kodak in the 1990s when the r&d boys brought their digital camera invention to then CEO George fisher. He famously laughed and said something to the effect of " why would people want to take their own digital photos when they can just use one of our film cameras, send us that film & we develop their photos for them?" He totally missed one of the bugged market disrupting changes in human history. I still live in rochester NY. Kodak on the other hand is more or less gone. 20 years ago they were the largest employer in town. Now that distinction goes to wegmans super markets. All those high paying manufacturing jobs are gone now... replaced by cashiers and shelf stockers and warehouse employees
Right around that same time, some engineers at Xerox (the copier company) took a wood block with some tiny wheels, placed a little ball inside of it and demonstrated how you could move an arrow around on a cathode ray tube (television) using x-y coordinates. Their management scoffed at the idea and made them put their (toy) away and focus on "reprographics". A visionary kid on a school "fieldtrip" (Harvard I think) ran with the idea and called it a mouse. People (including Bill Gates) thought he was nuts, particularly when he called his new enterprise Apple Computer.
Yet, Kodak did make good digital cameras for a number of years. In telling your story, you make it sound like Kodak didn't commercialize digital cameras. That's not true. They bet on the wrong storage technology and didn't switch to CF/SD cards in time.
I was a fan of UBI for about 5 minutes but then I started wondering were the billionaires that own all the means of production and all the labor power going to be controlling that UBI? If you have a tiny class of people controlling everything then why would they even need the rest of us?
They might try to release another virus to reduce the world’s population to 500 million as those elitist cultists envisioned on the Georgia Guidestones…
@@magyararon6918 Except they still need us to do all the dirty work The only way out is if we relearn how to do everything for ourselves, eliminate land and resource ownership, and shun a master class.
If you have no income, the manufacturers have no customers. They would then produce nothing! If you haven't any salary and no UBI, it won't work. It's the transition that is troublesome! But there's another way than waiting for an UBI. Those companies producing humanoids will grow tremendously. Tesla is projected to increase 30 times from Optimus and Robotaxi. If you have 134 stocks, you would be millionaire then. So, you get unemployed, but doesn't have to rely on an UBI. If it doesn't happen like that, you still have a job. This is your insurance, while your government ponders UBI or not!
In the 1970s, I asked myself, “how do we structure society when new tech is disrupted before it can be commercialized?” I published my answer in 2023 in Amaranthine: How to Create a Regenerative Civilization Using Artificial Intelligence. My experience discussing my findings over the years was that I was telling the monkey with its hand in the trap to let go of the banana. That’s why I turned to AI. The way AI is being developed will be catastrophic, but it does not have to be that way. AI can be used to create a paradise for us as readily as dystopian hell. But we have to let go of our current socioeconomic banana and replace it with a human-centric rather than money-centric society
money is motivation, motivation to have more than others is a survival instinct… california state employees are a study of systems that lack motivation and thus become heavily inefficient
Why do we assume AI will not figure this out on it's own? We seem to think that the monkeys creating it will have control over it. Maybe it will see them for what they are and treat them as such
@@TurdFergusen Your bias is showing. PLEASE REFERENCE THE STUDY if there is a legitimate study which usually are unbiased. Sounds to me like the state fired you.
I have a fundamental question: if most of humans will end up without work since ai and robots will take over, who is going to buy all the products and services that the robots and ai will produce?
@@KidHorn7001 No there won't. That comparison isn't an apt one because the jobs all those former farm people moved to, won't exist anymore once robots take everything. There eventually won't be any new jobs for displaced people to move to. All these companies are making robots for those jobs too. It's not just car factories or Amazon warehouses. Companies want to replace as many workers as they possibly can and they will. That's why Universal Basic Income has to become part of the conversation. Otherwise all robots will cause is more profit to end up in CEO pockets while the rest of us starve and die.
Rich people. They will produce enough to keep rich people happy. You won't be able to afford anything so start watching mad max films to prepare for your new life.
Just a few scenarios up in my head: 1. Human race ends, the continuation of the ever expanding consciousness of the universe continues through Artificial life. 2. Human race reaches Civilization type 1 status. Total symbiosis and synergy. Everyone would get “promoted “ to god like lifestyle. Everyone lives an abundant life. Humans continue to expand throughout the galaxy and work towards a type 2 civilization and so on. 3. We finally wake up from this simulated world and the “Matrix “ reboots. 4. We finally realize that we are the universe, or as i would like to say, “I” am the whole universe. We wake up to realize that we are playing a game of hide and seek with ourselves. (please refer to Alan Watts) 5.Humanity self annihilates and destroys this planet. Hopefully the universe popped out a new species somewhere throughout the galaxy.
I started as a computer programmer just out of college in 1981. All of the computer forecasters said that computer programmers would be obsolete in 5 years. Most people who forecast the future are wrong.
Given you were in tech, you do know about Moore's Law, right? That was an absurd prediction in the 80s. What were programmers in that era going to be replaced with? Now, AI is way better at writing code, diagnosing illness, passing bar exams, etc. This is a step change, not incrementalism.
Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside. AI and robots will complete the process. There will be no jobs left for humans. So what good are humans if AI and robots can do your job and be better at it?
@@CraigBlack123 You really think that these greedy company bosses are going to let us have goods and services for UBI/social credit score points? I can't see it myself, they are more likely to want us gone period.
No one will be able to afford it they would need to earn more. Fixed incomes aren’t good people that like them think they will survive on them but won’t. The only people like that will be the first few generations then inflation will diminish it like ebt cards.
@@CraigBlack123 but ppl will not have children if they lose purpose we are already seeing this some counties are down to 0.8, this will make it 10x worse, this is the end game for humankind that will make the way for the next species "AI robots"
My concern is that the Greed that permiates society today will destroy the potential this represents. If the companies continue to over compensate the executives while under paying the worker class, who will be buying the products/services the robots produce. The very rich are not a large market for consumer goods. If regular people get money, they tend to spend it. That is what makes the wheels of industry work. The global economy is at a dangerous place now. GREED KILLS.
The problem of greed is not restricted to any one group in society. The greed of CEO’s is highly visible, but may be only a small part of the problem overall. In many cases greed is not a problem at all, since it incentivizes work and investment as well as fraud and rent-seeking.
Once more for the back row: THEY. DON'T. CARE. They'll go from billionaires to trillionaires, while the masses struggle, starve, and die. Ironically, after the .01% are gone, survived ONLY by THEIR children, money won't mean anything as the micro-minority of people left has hundreds of billions. They need the poors in order to be rich, but they'll exert every effort to end said poors.
Greed is a symptom among the elite who have structured the inflationary monetary system which continually widens the gap between those who own assets and those who do not.
so this massive development of infrastructure needed … will be provided in the public interest by the 8 multi- billionaires who literally own half the countries wealth?
@@ddoherty5956 Nope. Decentralized power generation and storage will make the grid much less vulnerable and important. Plus, as Sam posted in a recent video, the existing grid can be relatively easily upgraded with wires that double transmission capacity. The grid needs a massive upgrade anyway.
@@machoopichoo2 yeah that's probably true, however one man with a length of metal brings it all crashing down at distribution and all the eggs being in one basket regarding digital currency means a Carrington event or a decent effort arlt a cyber attack brings down the house of cards.
Hmm... would a government made from robots -which were made by corrupt manufacturers- be any better than the politicians we pay for already? Even if they were not built ethically, I doubt that their decisions and actions would be beneficial for humanity.
The politicians are doing what their owners (the wealthy) want them to. And what the wealthy want is more wealth, even if it comes from the little people these new rules are screwing. Both parties rely on money for campaigns and the amount of money needed to be competitive is staggering and well beyond traditional means of donations from the rank-and-file within the party so both parties have gone to the wealthy to get their money. The wealthy do not like giving politicians money, but they do that because they know that it gives them control over the politicians and over the policies they enact. While many on the right, unhappy with what's happened to them and their future, and rightfully so, nevertheless place the blame at faceless people in government that are not elected. Agencies like the FBI, in their world view, are part of what they call the 'deep state' and although no one can name anyone that's in the deep state with any validity many on the right have taken this as the reason for their economic decline and the disappearing futures of their children. In reality, we've handed over control of the government to unelected people who want what's best for them with absolutely no concern for the consequences for everyone else. In short, the deep state doesn't actually exist, but wealthy people owning the government and demanding policies that enrich them is the source of the pain too many working class people face.
American farmers were the canaries in our coal mine 100 years ago. With the introduction of gasoline powered tractors and later harvesters, farm output grew dramatically (pun intended) as horses were displaced in most farm production tasks. In the 1920's approx 1/3 of farm labor was directly tied to horse infrastructure and maintenance. All these workers were displaced in rural America, but this was not the key disruption. The most important factor in the collapse of the human worker driven rural farm economy was not immediately apparent. Tractors were expensive requiring a significant capital investment. Larger farms were best positioned to make these initial investments and grew their farm output faster than smaller farms. With increased output and profit, big farms began purchasing smaller farms at an accelerated pace due to their head start in farm mechanization. The size of farms grew 10x, 100x while the number of workers per acre needed to manage these new large farms shrank. The number of acres under cultivation didn't change much, as the adage goes: "they don't make new land very often". The initial disruption of farm mechanization had a domino effect: small rural towns with stores, schools ...etc, that served thousands of families living on small family farms surrounding them, were devastated due to the decline in farm workers and families on the land. Many rural farming communities started to resemble ghost towns as businesses closed. Because rural communities were politically less advantaged than larger urban areas, their plight went unheeded and was simply ignored by the rest of America. I submit the current MAGA movement, primarily a powerful factor in rural communities, is a direct result of urban disinterest in the collapse of the rural farm worker economy and the families pushed into poverty, despair and hopelessness. One-hundred years ago, farm families on small farms took pride in their productive farm work. Today, large farms have become more corporate even if owned by a single family, less a way of life and more an agribusiness. The Electric Viking needs to get a grip and study the big picture. If citizens do not collectively share ownership in the new wave of robots many of our fellow citizens will be driven into poverty, despair and hopelessness by the capital rich elites just as small farm families across America have been in recent history. If my work years ago in embedded systems: designing industrial computer control systems contributed unwittingly in a small way to the rise of human robots, the future generations of serfs have my sincere apology, which we agree will be of little comfort in their suffering. The Electric Viking is hesitant to call these developments a brave new world, but that is exactly what it is as Aldous Huxley envisioned.
Excellent summation of things. Living in rural Indiana I see the reality of what you describe and worry about the future for everyone around me. Our Brave New World will be an enormous challenge to survive. Thank you.
A very thoughtful essay. But as you said, your work in embedded systems: designing industrial computer control systems did unwittingly contribute in a small way to the rise of human robots. Scientists and engineers in many other field have and are doing the same. It appears the progression to automation will not be stopped. How can we use our past experience to prepare for the future?
@@shiulai5804 the industrial systems may have helped lead to robots, they also helped drive more productivity which allowed more people to eat and avoid starvation as one positive example
Read Hoffer’s book; The True Believer. A very possible outcome of mass economic disfunction is the something similar to the French Revolution, the Facist movement and the Communist Revolution in Russia. Those are just some of the recent revolts created by economic distress.
What Sam ignores when stating the eradication of povery is the lack of distribution of that additional wealth/GDP. The very rich elites will captalize on the robots however they will not deliberately share those gains with the ones who got replaced. That simply is a no-brainer.
They will try to, yes. But if there's a few thousand billionaires and a few billion people starving, that situation doesn't last long. There will be no choice but for them to redistribute (a generous amount of) the wealth.
@@BittermanAndynot really. Look at Brazil, India, pretty much all of Africa, inner cities in America. Billions of poor people already that can't do anything about rich people taking everything. And they don't even have robots armies yet, just modestly paid soldiers and police that are happy to keep the poors down.
@@linemanap Idk, if you dont have a job and essentially make 0 or some bs welfare I dont think a very cheap robotaxi and the Irobot maid you bought will help you that much.🥲
7:57 Not to mention that the TeslaBot doesn't pay taxes either. If automation like this replaces human jobs on a large scale, we could see a significant decrease in government revenue from taxes. This raises important questions about how to sustain public finances when fewer people are employed due to technological advancements. What solutions might we need to consider to balance this shift?
The government will tax the companies who make the bots and the customers that purchase them. They will be taxed based on the lifetime value and depreciation. No worries on this.
@@Yippydog They cant tax consumers, as most consumers wont have income besides UBI. And taxing UBI spending just takes back some of the UBI, which makes no sense and there is still al lack of money for the remaining UBI. They cant tax robot producers high enough to account for 3 times life time spending of human UBI receivers otherwise robot producers (and shippers) would avoid this country all together. Which means we will have a robot oligarchy with many very real poor people.
So will robots soon be killing turkeys and chickens to butcher them for human consumption? Same question about butchering cattle and hogs. I can imagine robots accepted in settings where people hate their jobs. Humans need to have human intimacy, cooperation, meaningful activities and purpose. Their spiritual value, often degraded by drudgery work in current blue collar dirty and repetitive jobs, might be freed to enjoy family friends and community social bonding if robots do the dirty work. But somebody will have the thankless jobs of creating the robots and training them to work, even if they are trained to train themselves. Technologically changing societies have left many citizens feeling left out, depressed, overwhelmed, stressed etc. attempting to adapt. Chinese youth today are remarkably unhappy, for instance, with all the glitter of fast growing GDP. The glitter of artificial intelligence and robotics is great for investors who see greedy profits coming their way. Resentments against nonproductive humans in America won’t disappear unless there’s a change in the beliefs and values of what it means to be human. If the dictum “those who don’t work don’t eat” isn’t dumped into the dustbin of puritan cultural history robots will not HELP humans be grateful, caring, compassionate and loving for each other and the planet we inhabit. Much to consider and discuss when implementing powerful technology into societies that are polarized, destabilized and disoriented by any and sometimes all rapid changes that ruin the stability of their communities and personal lives. Be careful what you wish for, you might get it. A cautionary reminder.
Is that what will happen? Or will it become like the movie Elysium. People living at the top, with the rest living in groveling poverty. Enforced by robots.
If the prediction is correct, and abundance for all is easily attainable, why would those at the top want to create a situation ripe for revolution and live in fear? It would be like a slave owner having the option to keep human slaves knowing they could revolt and kill him and his family or use robots that do whatever, work harder, for free,etc..
That depends on government, to a large degree. One could argue NYC, LA, San Fran, Seattle, Austin are already early versions of Elysium. Not trying to be political here, but these cities all have something in common; Terrible management. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Why would poverty be eliminated? There will still be constraints, such as material, land and things that require time to produce (aged or grown products). Everyone will not get a super yacht and private jet. I see no reason that wealth inequality will diminish, since the greed of the rich/powerful is insatiable.
Assuming there's hyperabundance and UBI, I don't really fear the loss of purpose. Think about what you would do if you weren't allowed to work for money, but were allowed to volunteer (with your material needs met). A lot of us would be doing more of the things we find fulfilling, and less of things we don't. Maybe I shouldn't assume, though.
You have been put into a trance by the lies of big tech. There is no such thing as hyperabundance. It literally isn't possible. Big tech just made up the word to get people like you to talk delusionally about it rather than focus on the crap they have gotten us into. I thought people would eventually wake up from the nonsense of big tech but it's clear that too many people want to live in a delusional fantasy. The future isn't headed to Utopia. We are on a collision course with species extinction...crop and harvest failures, record heat waves, lack of fresh water resources...and you're talking about everyone having their needs met and volunteering 🤭 In reality billions will die and those that don't will move causing more conflict. There will be no era of abundance because we won't have the manpower to build it, yes, manpower.
@@rockets4kidsYou make a very good point here. And those new professions will pay very well. This is not new. In the days of the ancient Greeks the SAIL replaced hundreds of oarsmen ( a thankless job). The steam engine replaced the sail, and created a whole new class of high paid tradesmen called “ Boiler makers” and “Engineers” who operated those boilers. The “Steam Shovel” replaced hundred of men and their shovels. The computer did the same to bank tellers. When was the last time you chatted with a bank teller when you deposited your pay check? It is hard to envision exactly what these new technologies will will ultimately be but they will come.
Sam been listening to you on and off for a long while. I listened to this episode TWICE , it surpassed your others imo. Not that the others were bad but this was top notch. You delivered it perfectly and conveyed the message just as well. I've been telling people this thing will hit like a tsunami but of course they think it's just waffle and switch off. There are a lot of people who will just stare at the thing instead of preparing. People should be made to listen to this episode as it sums it all up perfectly. Cheers for your effort.
@@ericdelf Yes/no. Some things about the future are impossible to imagine. Others are pretty easy. For example, how we interact with doors has changed little for generations, and is only now starting to change in a significant way due to the growing popularity of keypads. That's despite the fact that we have the technology to make it way more high tech than we do, but people aren't interested in paying huge sums for fancy tech when a simple lock and key is good enough. The future rarely looks as futuristic as people imagine it looking. To accurately predict the future, always cross-reference emerging ideas with what's likely to be affordable to deploy.
Honestly, if you don't believe the robots are coming, may I suggest that they already are capable of replacing every single one of our politicians, and frankly doing a better job.😅😅
One fundamental fact being over looked by this presentation. Supply and demand. If the robots put everyone out of work, then where will the demand come from. If no one has work, no one has purchasing power, no purchasing power no demand, no demand, no reason to build the product, and so on. That fact is insurmountable.
you have the sad idea that you are a part of the paradigm . the paradigm eliminates you and me. can anyone argue we do NOT have enough humans ? the elites are eliminating humans .... there you go.
That's what *UBI* (Universal Basic Income) is for. It'll keep you scraping by *_or,_* if you have brand, gumption, initiative, and/or skills you can get ahead.
If peoples labor isn't needed and everyone get Ubi to buy stuff isn't that just more money printing? That money isn't earned by a person's output. Only people with jobs are high tech workers since even your typical office admin staff will be taken by AI processes.
@@alhkcblack9617 Basically .. NO .. Money printing is only a problem because you can print money but not say a car so you end up with inflation, its not that moneys `earned` by human labour its that that human labour produced a object like a car, if you just print money and give it you have nothing BUT if you print money and produce enough `stuff` its not a problem.
YES but if we don't do this what do you want that children are always to spend their lives, their best years working in a factory, spend 5 in 7 days `working` .. I am 62 now and retired its wonderful I have just spent a English Summer's day sitting by a river with my dog, I will die in 20-30 years and I am sure I will not look back thinking how wonderful it was to spend my youth working shifts and not spending time with those I loved. UBI for the love of god don`t let my children's children not live a full life free of work.
I studied Industrial Robotics in college in the early 1980's. We already have robots that can do most assembly line jobs already and do it much faster, cheaper and built more reliable products than most humans and have had them for at least 40 years.
The key missing part has been the AI to drive them in to more generic multi-purpose robotics. With the advent of LLM's and companies like Open AI telling us "GPT 4 is about as dumb as it's ever gonna get, we already know what to do next", this will change everything! We are moving from the Industrial age into the Information age.
Some remote communities in Australia already are functioning on UBI money, otherwise known as 'sit down money'. Sadly it tends to destroy many people by taking away their life's purpose and not making them feel useful.
Would that be all the ones subject to twice the activity tests and work/study hours before they receive any benefit of those not in remote communities? (hint, I live in a rural Oz town and personally see exactly how it is applied, so think carefully before answering...)
@@boatbeard7767 I was thinking about some 'communities' in remote areas getting paid welfare with no expectation of doing paid work. Some do useful work - rangers etc.., but others are total disasters.
Many thousands of years ago we were hunter gatherers, and we were happy. What does a hunter gatherer do whole day? And women? ;) Social life, hobbies, entertainment... oh the possibilities.
Based on fundamental value, everyone’s job became irrelevant years ago when jobs related to basic necessities were no longer required. Everything beyond that is merely an abstraction of value. Now, technology is catching up and automating the jobs it created. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it will require a paradigm shift-similar to how the invention of cars made owning a horse a matter of choice rather than necessity.
@16:00 “. . . much like it did in China, where the entire country was brought out of poverty in about a decade”. In fact, much of the population of China remains in poverty. In 2020 Chinese premier Li Keqiang pointed out that 600 million remain below China’s official poverty level. Today, that low income class is actually growing, not shrinking.
Remember when computers came out. Paper was supposed to be obsolete…. 25 years later, I’m still buying ink for the printer. Oh yeah and Ben Ashenden grew up without manners.
The one thing I’ve learnt in many years of software development is it as you conquer each Hill all you get is a view of the next one. It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that this Hill will be the last and this is the mistake that wrecks many a schedule. Whilst the optimist in me wants this to be the last AI hill there will be many more but hopefully the current one is the big one.
I am also a software developer, and while what you say is true - once you reach the top of one hill you see the next hill, it's still PROGRESS. Sure you never run out of hills. That's a good thing! Keeps us busy and keeps progress moving forward. But progress is progress.
Hello from Malaysia, Sam. Congratulations on the immensely informative content. By the way, that’s a nice elephant picture on the wall. 😀 Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to Sam and all here.
Great new wealth doesn't eradicate poverty. An even safer prediction then that robots will outcompete us in the future is to predict that this will not be managed wisely.
I almost fell out of my seat laughing when he said poverty would be eradicated. If no one has jobs no one has money to buy the goods and services and foods the companies who own the robots will provide. There is no motivation or historical evidence for the wealthy rulers to care for useless people if there is no profit to be made. I don’t think UBI will happen.
First, in the first slide, batteries are not a source of energy. They provide storage for energy produced by wind and solar. Second, in the U.S., more expensive green energy has done nothing but reduce the standard of living for all Americans. I have my own solar panels to provide most of the power I need but I spent $36,000 for them. The average American doesn't even have $400 in the bank. Slight problem.
There’s going to be no recession. There’s going to be massive production like the world has never seen. The prices of products including raw materials will decline across the board because of the lowering cost of labor. Robotics and intelligence will become cheaper and cheaper and accesible to more people.
A very important youtube article, well done thank you - it must have taken a HUGE amount of research. 🎉 This report deserves an award, like an Oscar, if such a thing exists on youtube ?
I recall what automation can do when I worked for Schnider Electric in the late 90s' out of France These plants were so highly automated they caused overnight severe unemployment in the Normandy and Grenoble region. To address the issue the government required us to hire back employees to stop the machine ever so often to manually stack the products and move the products by forklifts to the shipping department which was not allowed to be automated..
Have you ever seen “I Robot?” Yup it’s wonderful to think that robots will one day do everything people do. However, should these machines start to think and act like people do, we are SCREWED. Be careful what you wish for!
I think people take too much from sci-fi. It's arrogant to believe we will be able to predict such things. We should be careful but my god some people would have us revert to stone tools
Not only robot workers, but also robot soldiers, robot policemen, etc, with knowledge and power, no place to hide, i think we already have the robot taxman
What this means is that we will need a new economic system. We will need to find a way of getting money into the hands of humans and perhaps their jobs will be to spend money. Today, more people work at home or while traveling, and the concept of work is changing. It also means that these changes will affect our values; perhaps not working might be acceptable someday. Work is such a big part of how we and others see us. Yet in a world where human labor becomes too costly and inefficient, we will still need a way to sustain people. I have no doubts that robots will replace human labor, but then the question becomes, what happens to all those people? Thus the idea of a guaranteed national income might in the future not only become acceptable, but also necessary. Sam, I very much appreciate you tackling this difficult problem. It is a testimony that you are doing your job as a journalist to keep your public thinking.
It's so adorable you think they plan to keep an excess population around (no offense to you, it's just the math is clear if labour is a problem, so is housing and feeding that labour)
Good video. Personally, I've been saying humans were the horses for the last decade. That was when over 2000 robots replaced Chinese noodle chefs who were making under $3,000 per year. However, I doubt there will be a Ubi and I think we will follow the Luddite model instead. Also the start of this video felt a little bit overly padded. Say the teaser sentence once and then go to the video. Don't say the teaser sentence three to five times in various ways. Your channel is wonderful. You gather a lot of information that would take me a lot of time to sift through and put it all in one place. Keep up the good work.
Actually, if weather and lighting is between good and excellent, FSD is getting good … and I say this as a person who was pretty critical of it only a few months ago. However, they have a camera-only system, and if visibility is poor Tesla has a problem that doesn’t seem easily fixed with their current hardware. And robotaxis that only work in good weather are a problem.
they are obligated to say their tech is improving by leaps and bounds every keynote as they have been for the past decade, that is how they are inflating their value then diversifying to make money. the objective is money, not advanced tech.
I’m skeptical we will eliminate poverty. I expect a small number of people will control the vast majority of robots, and everyone else will grow poorer from lack of income. Investors are not spending billions to develop robots in order to give away the windfall profits. They intend to keep them! The capitalists will force the rest of us to end capitalism just to eat.
I have been saying all this for years now, it's not hard to imagine the future. But you said that all 7 billion people would be taken care of once they become redundant or something along those lines, Claus Shwab of the WEF says we need to reduce our total population to 500 million so we can afford a universal basic income 😮
Tony Seba is correct. Humans need not apply. We are witnessing an S curve in disruption. It has taken longer than anticipated by many. However all the necessary technologies are converging. See Lights in the Tunnel by Martin Ford
Yes, but where did Seba actually say these things about robots? - I can't find him saying it anywhere but I've found plenty of vids saying he said all this but never a link
Wow. What effect will it have on society when most people have no work to do, even if they get paid for not working. People need something productive to keep them occupied or bad things can happen.
I am one with lots of hobbies and play several musical instruments. Looking forward to retirement soon, so I can spend my time in hobbies rather than stuck in an office.
@user-zv8ph5du5t UBI supporters claim this provides a great opportunity to do what people truly like and what's really needed but isn't profitable in a capitalistic society. From care homes for the elder to repair shops and many other services and social interactions. Most of these cannot be scaled and are therefore are not profitable currently or become crazily expensive like care homes.
Hi Viking, Love your work! I own a CyberTruck. I'm looking forward to using my big wheels and tires to better crawl thru deep snow. Here, in the high plateaus of Utah, we have all the challenging driving conditions, but deep snow is the biggest problem. Unlike my other trucks (utes) F700, F350, Dodge Dakota, the Cyber has no differentials. Differentials as like dragging a huge boat anchor thru snow banks. They create resistance as far away from the wheels as possible and the longest reach with a shovel when your stuck and have to start digging. Conversely, when I get my CyberTruck stuck, the whole vehicle will be suspended on packed snow, but no worries, because that's what the Extract mode is for. When I get stuck at 16" of clearance = "extra high" suspension, I'll just go up that extra inch and back out and drive home. Or go get my Volvo L25e (electric) loader and dig thru all the drifts I can't drive thru, recharging the 40kW loader directly from my CyberTruck as needed. Offset is for posers. Lots of hill-billies here think they look cool in a brain-dead, Mad Max, sort of way, but it only accomplishes horrible road noise, huge losses in fuel economy, and putting extra stress on the suspension. If you ask me, getting smaller wheels and tires with the hope of increasing range, but then moving them out to look cool, only creates extra drag and turbulence, thus defeats the purpose of obtaining more range, mate. Cheers!
Legislate one robot per person so companies cannot have a monopoly AND everyone gets a free robot. You send your robot to work and you get paid. Problem solved. It's like getting solar panels and connecting to the grid - you're a passive producer and consumer.
This is actually a very clever thought! Keep it up; this is a great way of redistributing the profits. With a caveat: We should start unionized. So you can't undercut someone else's robot in price.
No profit trying to grow food for unless eaters. Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside. The elite will have created what they want. Less people on the planet, less problems for them. What do you think the plandemic was for. It was just a test.
If more people are out of a job because of robots that means less tax revenue for the federal government and states so my guess is they will tax companies on a per robot basis to make up for the loss. Companies wanting to set up shop in states will have to agree to have a percentage of their workforce be human or states will not allow them to operate in that state or get any incentives. I do believe this is the future, but it will take a long time for politicians to embrace it!
Computers, automation and robotics have been in use for twenty five years. People were forced to work less paid hours, part time employees without the benefits of full time employment. We have some of the most highly qualified people running lawn mowing businesses, making coffee in coffee shops, driving Uber cars, telemarketing and doing home deliveries. People do not have enough money to utilise their free time. The WEF intends people should share the experience by watching the rich in videos on TV or UA-cam.
I cannot imagine that corporations will slash prices due to reduced labour costs. We can't even recycle electric cars and plastics so now we will be fillings landfills with generations of obsolete robots. Who is going to buy all this stuff the robots will be producing? Wherr are all the raw materials going to come from to build all these robots?
The prices already are slashed due to automation. Do you have any idea how much a smartphone, TV, or automobile would cost if they were 100% made by hand?
@@northrockboy ?? What are you talking about?? The refinery can use green energy. Refining oil needs energy and oil is heavily subsidized. This is a commercial refinery so it produces raw materials that can be sold and energy can be produced with wind and solar. Now all the plastics are dumped in the oceans and landfills so there is plenty of material 😱
I just wonder where all the electricity is going to come from. For a power plant, construction time alone is 5 years or more. Or are we using batteries to smooth out the duck curve while also running existing power plants at peak levels all the time?
The Empire State Building was built in one year. Powerplants are neither larger nor more complex, especially if we standardize regulations and facilities and rebuild a more robust and dispersed grid at the same time. In WW2 some ships were built in a week instead of a year. Amazing what planning can accomplish.
@@lyfandeth Agreed that people can organize to do great things. But I feel that was a "different era". I'm optimistic on the future, pessimistic on this timeframe. The Empire State Bldg was designed before, but built during the great depression when labor was extremely cheap. In a race for tallest building back then, that by itself was compelling enough to continue building, ultra cheap labor enabled the building owner to get it done faster than otherwise possible. (consider the lack of safety regulations at the time too).
And during WW2, we were a much more united country. Today whether this gets done will depend on who’s in office and their position on oil. Power plant construction is already regulated for all the types of energy production...and further standardization would mean the gov't chooses a couple designs from each production type...to do this in time, this will have to be plant design that has already been developed by particular companies. We also have to do environmental studies before starting all these construction sites. I'm just more pessimistic that this can actually happen in a decade. Personally, I think small modular nuclear reactors, distributed as necessary around the country, is the way to go. But that also seems unlikely in the next decade with the unreasonable aversion to nuclear.
Vehicle batteries, are going to level the grid load by sharing power, while plugged in. 10 kwh of energy from a parked vehicle, that wants to share, for a cash payment,, times 100,000 vehicles, makes ALL the difference
Elon doesn't have a great track record with timing. However, he's been right 99% of the time and most of his predictions and plans have come to pass. Still waiting on absolute FSD, but if you take one out for a test drive now, you will be amazed. It's stunning how good it is. Remember the model S only came out in 2012, so 12 years from the new car to a car that can almost drive itself. This is INCREDIBLE and people are like "yawn, still waiting". Jesus christ, this is ridiculous. This is like that Louis CK skit where he's talking about people flying and being disappointed because the seat doesn't go back much.
@@ColinFox Elon is one of my favorite Oligarchs, but he is a confidence man/salesman through and through. He makes a lot of empty promises in order to increase his company's stock price. Promising to be the last out, and then sells a bunch of his overinflated stock with the free speech excuse killing his supporters portfolios. Nice trick. Being the best Oligarch does not say much. I like how he fights for free speech, (see trick above) but I have a hard time believing anything he says. Some of what he says may come true though. Even a clock is right... yadda yadda yadda. But You always have to keep in mind that he is also trying to manipulate the masses for his personal gain. Just curious. What has come to pass? He runs a rocket company that has a much worse track record than when the GOVERMENT RAN IT. lol. He makes the worst, most expensive electric vehicles IMO that you are forced to have him fix when it inevitably breaks down. He advertises bullet proof glass that doesn't break only when soy boy is throwing with limp wrist. I will give you that he is a great confidence man, and he can get people to follow him no matter what he promises without delivering. That is it in a nutshell. Great con man.
My thought is with the increase in production capabilites and oncomming job displacments, how will GPD go up if not down if spending is down?? Im all for change and the tech btw im not really driven by any particuler outcome or have an answer but an interesting question. Will the tech get cheeper if industry slows down due to lack of demand...We will see some big changes in the next 5 years when some of the giant conmpanies start to collapose due to lack of demand. Im tipping one of the legacy auto makers to vanish in the next months (Ford/GM or VW).
The next generation of EV will have PV Charging on their Windscreen, their body works and requiring less power to travel 1000km. That is why Elon Musk is now focusing on the next generation of Industry and Business - Robots and Food.
I agree with this video. Bots are coming and there is only a decade or so til most of us are pushed out. Most importantly is autonomy in my opinion. I believe Tesla is ahead by 2 steps due to fsd and autonomy. Data lead is unassailable. Tesla will sell the software as it will be too late to try to catch up when Tesla is too far ahead with so much data incoming every second of every day. Great vid Sam! Loving the long fermentation format. Many thanks;-)
They are not coming. It's an insanely, mind bogglingly difficult task. Tesla has a team of what looks like about 120 people on it. Even 12,000 wouldnt be enough.
@@SovrinWealth Ok so in less than a decade most of us have no job and no money, and the robot companies immediately go bust when no one can afford to buy anything...
@@jamie-ck6js To keep the starving rioting hordes at bay, the government will be forced to tax robotics companies more heavily to pay for U.B.I (Universal Basic Income)
Humanoid robots will not be able to take over jobs unless it is a dangerous job, driving jobs or a food serving job, then you will be replaced. It will take maybe 100 years before they replace everyone in a retail store. I would like to see them do recieving. Haha. You will be waiting a long time.
What most people don't realise, the Office jobs will go first, as you have already seen in the banking industry. Most office workers spend most of their working day moving information from one computer network to another with AI they are not needed the computers can now talk to each other themselves there is no need for humans. Manual labour will be the last to go, all these people going to University to train in accountancy and law are redundant already. Don't look at the manual workers, look at yourself first the computers you are using don't need you any more they don't need keyboard input, be warned
if we do not have work, how will we derive meaning out of our lives? Apart from money, people (especially men) derive a sense of purpose and meaning from their work. Without it, they destroy themselves.
Most people will derive their value by weeding municipal lawns and gardens. That's why it's key to be able to distinguish weed from good turf and pull it up by the root accordingly.
@@MrSteeDoo Sorry but the non religious have created AI and robots to take the place of humans. Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside. Religion won't save us either.
EV sales are slipping all across the world (especially where not subsidised by gov/manufacturers). Current state of EV costs, devaluation, range, weight, charging infrastructure/cost, fire risk/insurance costs are just not worth it for the average income person.
You can foresee that this disruption will also shatter our current political and economic models. If people are to be looked after, rather than be impoverished by this, enormous change will be required - possibly with some nasty conflict.
A UBI is harmful to the people who receive it. It takes away drive and ambition. People who can just sit around the house doing nothing useful, become neurotic, depressed, and they start doing antisocial behaviors. It's like putting a wild animal in a zoo with plenty of food or water but no need to hunt.
Sam, thanks for the information! I do have to say that this disruption is something that needs to be deeply studied and analyzed before it is allowed. Let’s not forget that in many of these cases, the disruption is to normal people, while the owners and stakeholders of the corporations just rake in the profits.
It is assumed that purpose in life comes from work. However creative work especially is not repetative grind, art or poetry has no practical value but is fun. Secondly spiritual inner work, more fulfilling lives, growing our vision of life is another possibility. The obsession with owning stuff is not the only way of life. We will have time to do what we love.
"Will tell you with almost zero uncertainty, what will happen over the next 10-20 years" Viking... I watch less and less because you're so loose with everything you say and wrong so often when you mix yours or others predictions into your videos. Isn't Herbert Diess supposed to be the next Tesla CEO and the next Gigafactory in Canada?
This scenario appears pretty bleak to those who are already at the bottom of the food chain but when considering the parallel advances into the solar system with the colonization and terraforming of mars, the moon and later Venus, all made possible by both robotics and humanities need to create and explore. Seba does a good job projecting the advances in the industries and tying it to social change he neglects to include extra Terran advances as well. Overall a very good and highly informative production. Thanks.
This will generate a big demand for metals, speciality alloys, new materials and plastics. Expect the mining industry to be on the cutting edge of new technological development to meet the demand but humans will still be needed to manage the environmental and social impacts.
100% guarantee that there will be major pushback to new mines in developed countries. It will be on Native American ground, or it will disrupt the life of some rare worm, or the runoff will ruin a river, or...
Remember, people in Australia, wind and solar, need batteries when it's dark or not windy and battery technology is not looking that good. We're getting closer to that year when we can no longer use fossil fuel and can't buy energy from our neighbours as we live on an island. Let us forget our outdated biases and look towards nuclear power.
@@mrmark44it's probably nuclear power industry. They post this stuff everywhere under science related topics. How great and safe they are. When in reality they lied about Chernobyl. And continue to lie and gaslight people. And they never tell when there is release of radioactive material from nuclear power plants and people are oblivious to it. And then new yorkers make surprised faces when they have 3 times national average rate of thyroid cancer
I can see the vision but question who will be buying the products of this new level of productivity. Could a UBI be equal to a successfully employed worker or professional? What if UBI is modest like Social Security and we all live in modest apartments like Soviet Russians. Will the eventual equilibrium be better or worse for most of us?
If you had the chance to use FSD latest version, you may reconsider that time frame. As a 55 year old guy with 40 years of driving experience, it's absolutely mind blowing. Terrifying.
@@ChuckHolland-i4b I can imagine it is pretty good. It is one thing transitioning from one type of transport to another but to transition from human to robotic, I'm not sure about. There are so many (positive) aspects of human behaviour that need to be digitalised which will take a long time to master. Ok, AI could work this out in seconds but to turn that into robotic action?
@@Flickerbrain I don't disagree. Once the governmnet and companies can realize they can make a fortune cutting out all of their labor, it will be a race to ground zero.
Thanks for reiterating Tony Seba and RethinkX's powerful message and brilliant insights. I've been following him and his team for a decade and been astounded by the accuracy of their predictions. Every decision-maker in government and industry would better serve their constituents and shareholders by understanding the technicalogical disruption s-curve cycles. Keep expanding on his message, Sam. We, the people who will have to live through these massive changes, need to be prepared for them. I honestly believe it is the path to a ST:TNG future - but it will be painful if we don't plan for the transition.
Yes, what you predict is certainly possible. The problem is greed or ,more accurately,the desire of some to have more than others. You can see this phenomenon in the healthcare system in USA . It’s cheaper to give care to everyone but those who can afford the present system are appalled that poor people can get equal treatment.
Yeah this is why i'm very concerned about this level of automation coming. It only works if we also implement Universal Basic Income (and do so fully with no compromises), and places like the USA would NEVER do that because capitalists/conservatives love hoarding wealth and watching poor/middle class people struggle to get by. Even if we did UBI, it wouldn't happen without DECADES of fighting over it and millions of poor people dying of starvation before they actually agree on a highly watered down version of it (like raising the minimum wage). Like you said, this basically already is what we have with our healthcare system that fails 95% of us.
Medical treatment can never be equal. The more you pay the better treatment you will get, thats not a function of greed but a consequence of the inherent nature of goods and services. The best brain surgeon on the planet cannot perform brain surgery on everyone, someone has to get the C- student that became a brain surgeon.
@@S-we2gp You're only looking at it from the high end. You should be looking at the low end. The barrier for entry and the bare minimum being unaffordable for people who need it the most. That part is 100% a function of greed and is on purpose. It easily could be equal and widely available if the powers that be simply wanted/allowed it to be. No one is saying a homeless guy should be able to get the top brain surgeon in the world. The issue is a poor person even with insurance still has to pay absurd money out of pocket and when you focus on the bogus example you did, that's why it never changes.
@@VMYeahVN The reason the prices are so high isnt capitalism its governmental interference, regulation, and bureaucracy. It is absolutely insane that when you go in to get an xray they cant tell you the price and they'll just make it up later. We dont operate this way in any other aspect of life. This is why we're getting price gouged, I agree its a complete scam and there is definitely greed. However anyone that thinks that the government being more involved in any service will improve the quality is insane. The government literally cannot do anything well, there real job is policing and national defense thats it.
@@Dilbert-o5k The companies using the robots will pay the taxes which will be distributed as UBI, actually UGI (Universal Good Income qv. Elon Musk). This is also in the companies interest, because they need consumers with money to buy their goods and services.
Mr Electric Viking aka Sam. Here is a partial list companies may save on. Insurance, workman’s comp, 401K, bathrooms, water, food, HVAC, lighting, sound mitigation. Anyone care to add to the list? Feel free 😅
In 2014 I did a tour of solar factories across China. Almost all were very impressive, and almost all had huge production rooms with hundreds of workers in each room, and tens of thousands of totla workers in some factory complexes (Yingli, Suntech, etc).
But one stood out. It was a medium sized solar company, which was in fact a sub-brand of one of China's major state-controlled petrol-chemical companies. In that factory (In Nanjing), the were just a few workers in each production room. Only a few people walking around.
I asked the sales girl if it was lunchtime. She said no.
So I said where are all the workers? She said - This is it. Most of the production is done by robots....
So I asked who the few workers were. She said - They were robot technicians.
After thinking about it awhile, I said - but why? Labour here is very cheap. Why use robots?
She said - for a few reasons. Firstly, because while tech manufacturing labour in China is currently cheap, it won't be cheaper than India and other countries for a lot longer. Secondly, the quality of production is higher from robots, and no HR risk. And finally, because we also build robots. This Solar department partly exists just to test our own robots, which we need to be perfect so we can not only use them ourselves, but also sell them to other factories. We are also using them like this to make other products.
Note - at that time the robots weren't humanoid, and probably didn't have a lot of AI. But I'm sure they've developed a LOT in the past 10 years...
I am 73 as a young man I envisioned being the owner of a robotic manufacturing company . My only task was robot naintence. Still yet to be true but getting closer by the day . Energy and robotics may be the best investments today . If everyone owned 5,000 watts of Solar production the world would be a completely different place. Imagine if everyone owned three robots , renting robot prduction maybe the future.
Andrew Yang said this 4 years ago. No one cared. He said you're not going to have a job. Nobody cared. He said we should just give you money. Nobody wanted it. Four years later. It wasn't even a conversation in anybody's campaign. Andrew Yang still alive. Maybe we should vote for him. Because 4 years ago, this is what he was saying. In this video, he's talking about a guy. Who made the video two days ago.
Thank you for this insight and post
Humans will be rendered obsolete.
Yo my concern that is half the mater थरथरी हैव आ गौतमकल सप्तावद प्लान तो ट्रेवल्सिम , s lions share of 3/3 of their land stea कट्टरंटली से बातें श्रीद इस्टेल्संड , eith tspud deployment of these dolar panels and ste on the run up to 455 ge of solar pv lower ईंट मिडिचिंग सोडियम ओन स्टोरेज, घाट इस मोस्ट लेकरली तो मृत थे रिक्वायरमेंट ऑफ साल ऑफ एशियन on the surplus from china?
The perfect storm:
- Humans valued only as a means to transfer UBI to large corporations.
- Super intelligent surveillance systems.
- Digital currency to neutralize dissidents.
- RoboCops for law enforcement and suppression.
- A global meaning crisis.
Add global climates further destabilizing --- the damages will far exceed robotic repair capacity. ( as long as both humans and robots don't overheat )
WE All Have To Be Special delivery Consultants In Your OWN Subject ? 10 Thousands Hour's Plus ➕ Use AI to Expand my knowledge Platform ? Use Technology to Up Your Game?
💯%
@@rapauli there’s nothing going on with the climate.
OK DOOMER!!😅😂😂
There’s a deep satisfaction in doing any useful work. If you wash windows for a living and are able to support your family, be proud of that.
That's one way to keep the peasants where they are I suppose.....
An honest job is an honorable job.
Fine!
But, what if you did NOT need to wash windows for a living. You could employ a robot to do that on your behalf...
Then, you'd still have a decent income, but could now spend MORE time with your family. 😊
At the pace of change even that will be taken over by robots!
@@kevinwhite2380 Well you would have to afford the robot and the no doubt hourly or monthly charge for the software and upgrades and maintenance and you would have to be able to charge enough for the robot to wash windows to support it and the needs of your family. The future will be great for the already wealthy, not for everyone else, Im believe.
I'm a plumber. My job is pretty safe. There is no way I can see that a robot could do what I can. This includes getting into confined spaces and dealing with all manner of slime and grime! Every job is different and sometimes you have to correct other people's work. Plus a robot will have to deal with crazy and wierd customers!
Hello Robert. Perhaps you’re safe for 10 years or so . Robot plumbers will be designed to scale , 4 ft models designed to work under counters and tight spaces and will fit into tight spaces better than humans. They have no thoughts and feelings about slime, grime , germs and human waste. They don’t have any issues with crazy human customers. The robot plumbers will have phd levels of mechanical engineering, plumbing sciences, hydrodynamics, fluid science, and every discipline that relates to plumbing. The lifetime experience of 100k master plumbers will be synthesized in every bot and be updated daily. The same paradigm will exist for robotic electricians, auto mechanics, and virtually every technical job that humans now do at a high cost. If you’re young, then this should be a concern as 20 years from now you will be rendered obsolete by bots that will perform your job better, faster, smarter and at 5% of the cost. I am sad to say that your feeling of job safety is unwarranted.
Plumbing, just like all manual labor, will absolutely be replaced. Robots can be configured in any size or dimension, we use robots everyday to get into confined spaces humans can’t reach, or is too hazardous to do so. This is about consolidation, not just robots. Owner operators / mom and pop operations are quickly becoming extinct. Private equity is already gobbling up competition. They are not interested whatsoever in expanding the cost of human labor. They’ll buy up every business they can get, consolidate operations under one roof, or in reality a neural net. They will accurately pre determine sourcing and minimize waste to nearly zero. AI powered robots won’t have to run back to get supplies it forget, or ran out of in the middle of a job. Work can be done 24/7 and never get called back on a mistake or conflict with code. There will of course be some plumbers during the transition but the vast majority of the work will be automated
Tell us you’ve never done any plumbing without telling us you’ve never done any plumbing .
Why does that comment have that “famous last words” ring about it? And surprise surprise, most people think that about their own jobs. I’ve done enough plumbing to know what you’re talking about. And sure some jobs will hold out longer and sure there ‘s the hype factor as well. But there’s a tsunami coming, and soon. It’s simple economics.
I bet you you’ll see one walking down the street in 5 years and you’ll go, well huh, look at that. In 15 years you won’t look twice.
Basically, the Matrix is real.
I think with this, poverty will probably rise like never seen. Not because of lack of resources but for the well known greed of those who have all the power. We tend to forget the typical evilness when we predict the future.
Not only that, but the greedy dont seem to care that starvation and homelessness frostbite never really produce any afterlives whatsoever, but they probably shadowbanned this comment or you or they might pretend you never read it and not reply back.
@@truetech4158there is socially aware companies out there.
Yep... It's not good... It's NEVER been good. Humans are Essentially Evil little Selfish Greedy Monsters (by defenition actually) - I always tell people... If you wan't to see a Real Monster... just have a look in a Mirror.... Even "Advancement as a Civilization is ALWAYS a Greedy Selfish Forceful Push towards a Lifestyle Noone ever Needed or Asked for, which often goes horribly wrong"
Exactly! Human greed is often boundless.
lmao, when he said china doesn't have 600 million people in poverty I laughed. You're right.
The abundance of stuff should not be mistaken for prosperity. We have more stuff now than ever but happiness and contentment are not higher.
What's the point of producing more and better stuff if there won't be anyone left to buy? Unless the UBI is raised to an equally massive level. Then we'd be outside of the capitalistic realm.
The stuff is not better. The physical case is being made to cull back a "wasteful population." They just need enough data to pass any historical litmus tests since the anti-savage, civilising and spread democracy campaigns drew too much criticism from historians
Well that's up TO YOU.
the things that make me the happiest are being with my lady no cell phones no tv, just nature.
You nailed it!
Loss of sense of purpose and self-worth will be the most dramatic social impact.
Get a grip , they done a number on you if you ever get to feel that way .
People need to join communities and buy only made by human products. Maybe then it will help prevent this technocratic rulership.
That IS THE PROBLEM! Our society was never intended to find our purpose via a 9-5 "job". This will allow humanity to reDISCOVER what it means to be human again.
It ALREADY is!
@@IAMhuman-Divine You think it's that easy to throw away thousands of years of evolutionary programming? The need for purpose comes from it. And it's there to ensure survival. You won't change the programming in just a couple decades. So generations to come will be unhappy. Until evolutionary adaptation happens (or human self-destructs looking for ways to be happy)
I can honestly say this is one of the most important pieces of content ive comsumed in the last 5 years. I will literally use this to try to keep myself on the right side of this wave as it crashes down on jobs. I didnt even know about Tony Seba, will look him up. Thanks for the video, game changer for me, keep up the good work.
20 years ago the steel plant I worked in employed over 360 men and women, operated year round, producing 1/4 th the steel it produces today in 2024 with less then 150 men and women. Mostly due to automation... That's 210 less jobs.. and a 300 percent increase in production... corporate profits up... labor cost down.. the name of the game.
This is an early example of what’s about to come!
But look at how steel prices have dropped! 🤣🤣🤣
With unions throwing their weight around, robots can’t come fast enough.
The lead/zinc factory I worked in during University employed 5000 people. It now employs 300 and produces about the same output.
If you willing to donate 10-15% from your annual salary, by all means do it. In reality almost no one does that, the employee nor the employer
As for digital cameras, I worked at Kodak in the 1990s when the r&d boys brought their digital camera invention to then CEO George fisher. He famously laughed and said something to the effect of " why would people want to take their own digital photos when they can just use one of our film cameras, send us that film & we develop their photos for them?"
He totally missed one of the bugged market disrupting changes in human history. I still live in rochester NY. Kodak on the other hand is more or less gone. 20 years ago they were the largest employer in town. Now that distinction goes to wegmans super markets. All those high paying manufacturing jobs are gone now... replaced by cashiers and shelf stockers and warehouse employees
And all of these jobs will be replaced by humanoid robots.
We had the same in Switzerland with digital watches.
@@ericvanheldenthe first "automation" job replacements were middle managers remember, especially places like Burger King
Right around that same time, some engineers at Xerox (the copier company) took a wood block with some tiny wheels, placed a little ball inside of it and demonstrated how you could move an arrow around on a cathode ray tube (television) using x-y coordinates. Their management scoffed at the idea and made them put their (toy) away and focus on "reprographics". A visionary kid on a school "fieldtrip" (Harvard I think) ran with the idea and called it a mouse. People (including Bill Gates) thought he was nuts, particularly when he called his new enterprise Apple Computer.
Yet, Kodak did make good digital cameras for a number of years. In telling your story, you make it sound like Kodak didn't commercialize digital cameras. That's not true. They bet on the wrong storage technology and didn't switch to CF/SD cards in time.
I was a fan of UBI for about 5 minutes but then I started wondering were the billionaires that own all the means of production and all the labor power going to be controlling that UBI?
If you have a tiny class of people controlling everything then why would they even need the rest of us?
They might try to release another virus to reduce the world’s population to 500 million as those elitist cultists envisioned on the Georgia Guidestones…
Isnt its already like that? They get huge fundings from all the printed money, the rest of the society gets the inflation part of the game.
@@magyararon6918 Except they still need us to do all the dirty work
The only way out is if we relearn how to do everything for ourselves, eliminate land and resource ownership, and shun a master class.
Next plandemic will answer
All your questions…
If you have no income, the manufacturers have no customers. They would then produce nothing!
If you haven't any salary and no UBI, it won't work.
It's the transition that is troublesome!
But there's another way than waiting for an UBI.
Those companies producing humanoids will grow tremendously. Tesla is projected to increase 30 times from Optimus and Robotaxi.
If you have 134 stocks, you would be millionaire then. So, you get unemployed, but doesn't have to rely on an UBI.
If it doesn't happen like that, you still have a job. This is your insurance, while your government ponders UBI or not!
A quote from Ambassador Kosch of Babylon 5:
"The avalanche has alredy started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Kosh
Whatever. Great quote. Stay focused.
Really? You can DO something right now, not tomorrow, not yesterday.
@@tedmoss I agree. What do you suggest?
@@stephenwirtz2057 Migrate to Mars.
In the 1970s, I asked myself, “how do we structure society when new tech is disrupted before it can be commercialized?” I published my answer in 2023 in Amaranthine: How to Create a Regenerative Civilization Using Artificial Intelligence. My experience discussing my findings over the years was that I was telling the monkey with its hand in the trap to let go of the banana. That’s why I turned to AI. The way AI is being developed will be catastrophic, but it does not have to be that way. AI can be used to create a paradise for us as readily as dystopian hell. But we have to let go of our current socioeconomic banana and replace it with a human-centric rather than money-centric society
Money is power and influence. The people that have that will die before they give up the money centricity.
money is motivation, motivation to have more than others is a survival instinct… california state employees are a study of systems that lack motivation and thus become heavily inefficient
Why do we assume AI will not figure this out on it's own? We seem to think that the monkeys creating it will have control over it. Maybe it will see them for what they are and treat them as such
Elon loves Money ......
@@TurdFergusen Your bias is showing. PLEASE REFERENCE THE STUDY if there is a legitimate study which usually are unbiased. Sounds to me like the state fired you.
I have a fundamental question: if most of humans will end up without work since ai and robots will take over, who is going to buy all the products and services that the robots and ai will produce?
There will be new jobs for people. In the 1800s half the population worked on a farm. Now 2% do.
I don't think this subject was covered except the minimum income from the government?
@@KidHorn7001 No there won't. That comparison isn't an apt one because the jobs all those former farm people moved to, won't exist anymore once robots take everything. There eventually won't be any new jobs for displaced people to move to. All these companies are making robots for those jobs too. It's not just car factories or Amazon warehouses. Companies want to replace as many workers as they possibly can and they will. That's why Universal Basic Income has to become part of the conversation. Otherwise all robots will cause is more profit to end up in CEO pockets while the rest of us starve and die.
Rich people. They will produce enough to keep rich people happy. You won't be able to afford anything so start watching mad max films to prepare for your new life.
Just a few scenarios up in my head:
1. Human race ends, the continuation of the ever expanding consciousness of the universe continues through Artificial life.
2. Human race reaches Civilization type 1 status. Total symbiosis and synergy. Everyone would get “promoted “ to god like lifestyle. Everyone lives an abundant life. Humans continue to expand throughout the galaxy and work towards a type 2 civilization and so on.
3. We finally wake up from this simulated world and the “Matrix “ reboots.
4. We finally realize that we are the universe, or as i would like to say, “I” am the whole universe. We wake up to realize that we are playing a game of hide and seek with ourselves. (please refer to Alan Watts)
5.Humanity self annihilates and destroys this planet. Hopefully the universe popped out a new species somewhere throughout the galaxy.
Thanks Sam. Tony has been a friend for many years, many more people need to see and understand the trends that Tony makes crystal clear.
I started as a computer programmer just out of college in 1981. All of the computer forecasters said that computer programmers would be obsolete in 5 years. Most people who forecast the future are wrong.
But some are right.
True but Seba has been far more accurate than most on things like the price of solar, EV’s batteries etc.
Given you were in tech, you do know about Moore's Law, right? That was an absurd prediction in the 80s. What were programmers in that era going to be replaced with? Now, AI is way better at writing code, diagnosing illness, passing bar exams, etc. This is a step change, not incrementalism.
@@guyswiggins Exactly.
Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside. AI and robots will complete the process. There will be no jobs left for humans. So what good are humans if AI and robots can do your job and be better at it?
There is just one little caveat: if everybody is on UBI, who is going to afford to buy all the products coming out of the increased productivity?
UBI will be more than sufficient. Goods and services will be significantly less expensive.
@@CraigBlack123 You really think that these greedy company bosses are going to let us have goods and services for UBI/social credit score points?
I can't see it myself, they are more likely to want us gone period.
Why do you think elites are talking about population reduction. They dont need you anymore, and they will seek to eliminate the excess.
No one will be able to afford it they would need to earn more. Fixed incomes aren’t good people that like them think they will survive on them but won’t. The only people like that will be the first few generations then inflation will diminish it like ebt cards.
@@CraigBlack123 but ppl will not have children if they lose purpose we are already seeing this some counties are down to 0.8, this will make it 10x worse, this is the end game for humankind that will make the way for the next species "AI robots"
The best video Ihave watch in UA-cam so far! Thanks for the info and all your hard work behind, delivering it.
😊
All in on Tesla
My concern is that the Greed that permiates society today will destroy the potential this represents. If the companies continue to over compensate the executives while under paying the worker class, who will be buying the products/services the robots produce. The very rich are not a large market for consumer goods. If regular people get money, they tend to spend it. That is what makes the wheels of industry work. The global economy is at a dangerous place now. GREED KILLS.
The problem of greed is not restricted to any one group in society. The greed of CEO’s is highly visible, but may be only a small part of the problem overall. In many cases greed is not a problem at all, since it incentivizes work and investment as well as fraud and rent-seeking.
Once more for the back row:
THEY.
DON'T.
CARE.
They'll go from billionaires to trillionaires, while the masses struggle, starve, and die. Ironically, after the .01% are gone, survived ONLY by THEIR children, money won't mean anything as the micro-minority of people left has hundreds of billions. They need the poors in order to be rich, but they'll exert every effort to end said poors.
Greed is a symptom among the elite who have structured the inflationary monetary system which continually widens the gap between those who own assets and those who do not.
" the Greed that permiates society today": Please elucidate. Compare and contrast to any other period.
so this massive development of infrastructure needed … will be provided in the public interest by the 8 multi- billionaires who literally own half the countries wealth?
Just remember: the carbon footprint they are working to reduce is everyone not in the club.
And make sure that you remember the Achilles heel is the electricity network 😉
@@ddoherty5956 Nope. Decentralized power generation and storage will make the grid much less vulnerable and important. Plus, as Sam posted in a recent video, the existing grid can be relatively easily upgraded with wires that double transmission capacity. The grid needs a massive upgrade anyway.
@@machoopichoo2 yeah that's probably true, however one man with a length of metal brings it all crashing down at distribution and all the eggs being in one basket regarding digital currency means a Carrington event or a decent effort arlt a cyber attack brings down the house of cards.
It's either that or war every 5-10 years.
Carbon footprint measurement. What a waste of resources!
People fail to grasp the fact that once you've trained one robot in a task, you have trained EVERY robot in that task.
Only if all robots r made by same blueprints and standards and soft
@@jasminerochas-oq8jw you mean like standards in the automobile and IT industries? That is easy to achieve.
AI robots are sci-fi.
@@JamesHawkeUA-cam AI itself was sci fi once.
~yawn~
Can we replace all politicians,as most of them are corrupt 😂
Citizens United case makes that impossible
AI government system, promising but dangerous, there will be no turning back once we became farm animal.
Hmm... would a government made from robots -which were made by corrupt manufacturers- be any better than the politicians we pay for already? Even if they were not built ethically, I doubt that their decisions and actions would be beneficial for humanity.
Yes you can, but that won't solve the problem. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
The politicians are doing what their owners (the wealthy) want them to. And what the wealthy want is more wealth, even if it comes from the little people these new rules are screwing. Both parties rely on money for campaigns and the amount of money needed to be competitive is staggering and well beyond traditional means of donations from the rank-and-file within the party so both parties have gone to the wealthy to get their money. The wealthy do not like giving politicians money, but they do that because they know that it gives them control over the politicians and over the policies they enact.
While many on the right, unhappy with what's happened to them and their future, and rightfully so, nevertheless place the blame at faceless people in government that are not elected. Agencies like the FBI, in their world view, are part of what they call the 'deep state' and although no one can name anyone that's in the deep state with any validity many on the right have taken this as the reason for their economic decline and the disappearing futures of their children. In reality, we've handed over control of the government to unelected people who want what's best for them with absolutely no concern for the consequences for everyone else. In short, the deep state doesn't actually exist, but wealthy people owning the government and demanding policies that enrich them is the source of the pain too many working class people face.
American farmers were the canaries in our coal mine 100 years ago. With the introduction of gasoline powered tractors and later harvesters, farm output grew dramatically (pun intended) as horses were displaced in most farm production tasks. In the 1920's approx 1/3 of farm labor was directly tied to horse infrastructure and maintenance. All these workers were displaced in rural America, but this was not the key disruption.
The most important factor in the collapse of the human worker driven rural farm economy was not immediately apparent. Tractors were expensive requiring a significant capital investment. Larger farms were best positioned to make these initial investments and grew their farm output faster than smaller farms. With increased output and profit, big farms began purchasing smaller farms at an accelerated pace due to their head start in farm mechanization. The size of farms grew 10x, 100x while the number of workers per acre needed to manage these new large farms shrank. The number of acres under cultivation didn't change much, as the adage goes: "they don't make new land very often".
The initial disruption of farm mechanization had a domino effect: small rural towns with stores, schools ...etc, that served thousands of families living on small family farms surrounding them, were devastated due to the decline in farm workers and families on the land. Many rural farming communities started to resemble ghost towns as businesses closed. Because rural communities were politically less advantaged than larger urban areas, their plight went unheeded and was simply ignored by the rest of America. I submit the current MAGA movement, primarily a powerful factor in rural communities, is a direct result of urban disinterest in the collapse of the rural farm worker economy and the families pushed into poverty, despair and hopelessness. One-hundred years ago, farm families on small farms took pride in their productive farm work. Today, large farms have become more corporate even if owned by a single family, less a way of life and more an agribusiness.
The Electric Viking needs to get a grip and study the big picture. If citizens do not collectively share ownership in the new wave of robots many of our fellow citizens will be driven into poverty, despair and hopelessness by the capital rich elites just as small farm families across America have been in recent history. If my work years ago in embedded systems: designing industrial computer control systems contributed unwittingly in a small way to the rise of human robots, the future generations of serfs have my sincere apology, which we agree will be of little comfort in their suffering. The Electric Viking is hesitant to call these developments a brave new world, but that is exactly what it is as Aldous Huxley envisioned.
Excellent summation of things. Living in rural Indiana I see the reality of what you describe and worry about the future for everyone around me. Our Brave New World will be an enormous challenge to survive. Thank you.
A very thoughtful essay.
But as you said, your work in embedded systems: designing industrial computer control systems did unwittingly contribute in a small way to the rise of human robots. Scientists and engineers in many other field have and are doing the same.
It appears the progression to automation will not be stopped.
How can we use our past experience to prepare for the future?
@@shiulai5804 the industrial systems may have helped lead to robots, they also helped drive more productivity which allowed more people to eat and avoid starvation as one positive example
Read Hoffer’s book; The True Believer. A very possible outcome of mass economic disfunction is the something similar to the French Revolution, the Facist movement and the Communist Revolution in Russia. Those are just some of the recent revolts created by economic distress.
I think they want to eliminate us useless eaters
What Sam ignores when stating the eradication of povery is the lack of distribution of that additional wealth/GDP. The very rich elites will captalize on the robots however they will not deliberately share those gains with the ones who got replaced. That simply is a no-brainer.
They will try to, yes. But if there's a few thousand billionaires and a few billion people starving, that situation doesn't last long. There will be no choice but for them to redistribute (a generous amount of) the wealth.
The poor of today will live like the middle class in the future and not have to work. We just keep moving to goal posts.
@@BittermanAndynot really. Look at Brazil, India, pretty much all of Africa, inner cities in America. Billions of poor people already that can't do anything about rich people taking everything. And they don't even have robots armies yet, just modestly paid soldiers and police that are happy to keep the poors down.
They will have to. Just for their freedom.
@@linemanap Idk, if you dont have a job and essentially make 0 or some bs welfare I dont think a very cheap robotaxi and the Irobot maid you bought will help you that much.🥲
From California, this is a VERY VERY INTERESTING episode . Thank you so much .
7:57 Not to mention that the TeslaBot doesn't pay taxes either. If automation like this replaces human jobs on a large scale, we could see a significant decrease in government revenue from taxes. This raises important questions about how to sustain public finances when fewer people are employed due to technological advancements. What solutions might we need to consider to balance this shift?
Tax the robots and the goods they manufacture. Very simple.
The government will tax the companies who make the bots and the customers that purchase them. They will be taxed based on the lifetime value and depreciation. No worries on this.
Never doubt the government’s ability for tax innovation.
Company that uses bot gets taxed, company that produces and sells bot gets taxed.
@@Yippydog They cant tax consumers, as most consumers wont have income besides UBI. And taxing UBI spending just takes back some of the UBI, which makes no sense and there is still al lack of money for the remaining UBI. They cant tax robot producers high enough to account for 3 times life time spending of human UBI receivers otherwise robot producers (and shippers) would avoid this country all together. Which means we will have a robot oligarchy with many very real poor people.
This is your best episode yet. Amazing. Thank you.
Why th long face
This is a great informative video 😊 thank you i subed and like
So will robots soon be killing turkeys and chickens to butcher them for human consumption? Same question about butchering cattle and hogs. I can imagine robots accepted in settings where people hate their jobs. Humans need to have human intimacy, cooperation, meaningful activities and purpose. Their spiritual value, often degraded by drudgery work in current blue collar dirty and repetitive jobs, might be freed to enjoy family friends and community social bonding if robots do the dirty work. But somebody will have the thankless jobs of creating the robots and training them to work, even if they are trained to train themselves. Technologically changing societies have left many citizens feeling left out, depressed, overwhelmed, stressed etc. attempting to adapt. Chinese youth today are remarkably unhappy, for instance, with all the glitter of fast growing GDP. The glitter of artificial intelligence and robotics is great for investors who see greedy profits coming their way. Resentments against nonproductive humans in America won’t disappear unless there’s a change in the beliefs and values of what it means to be human. If the dictum “those who don’t work don’t eat” isn’t dumped into the dustbin of puritan cultural history robots will not HELP humans be grateful, caring, compassionate and loving for each other and the planet we inhabit. Much to consider and discuss when implementing powerful technology into societies that are polarized, destabilized and disoriented by any and sometimes all rapid changes that ruin the stability of their communities and personal lives. Be careful what you wish for, you might get it. A cautionary reminder.
Is that what will happen? Or will it become like the movie Elysium. People living at the top, with the rest living in groveling poverty. Enforced by robots.
That would be my bet. The stuff we have now is through social struggle of our ancestors. It wasn't given to us just to be nice.
It kind of allready is we just don't see it!
If the prediction is correct, and abundance for all is easily attainable, why would those at the top want to create a situation ripe for revolution and live in fear? It would be like a slave owner having the option to keep human slaves knowing they could revolt and kill him and his family or use robots that do whatever, work harder, for free,etc..
Never underestimate our ability to take an improvement and use it to ensure a select few benefit enormously both materially and in terms of power.
That depends on government, to a large degree. One could argue NYC, LA, San Fran, Seattle, Austin are already early versions of Elysium. Not trying to be political here, but these cities all have something in common; Terrible management. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Why would poverty be eliminated? There will still be constraints, such as material, land and things that require time to produce (aged or grown products). Everyone will not get a super yacht and private jet. I see no reason that wealth inequality will diminish, since the greed of the rich/powerful is insatiable.
Everyone will eat, have water and a roof. (After a while)
Assuming there's hyperabundance and UBI, I don't really fear the loss of purpose. Think about what you would do if you weren't allowed to work for money, but were allowed to volunteer (with your material needs met). A lot of us would be doing more of the things we find fulfilling, and less of things we don't.
Maybe I shouldn't assume, though.
This exactly!!!!!!
Sure but if everyone wants to be a Rockstar there'd be a problem
You probably should fear a robotic future. For one thing we don't know what it entails.
You have been put into a trance by the lies of big tech. There is no such thing as hyperabundance. It literally isn't possible. Big tech just made up the word to get people like you to talk delusionally about it rather than focus on the crap they have gotten us into. I thought people would eventually wake up from the nonsense of big tech but it's clear that too many people want to live in a delusional fantasy. The future isn't headed to Utopia. We are on a collision course with species extinction...crop and harvest failures, record heat waves, lack of fresh water resources...and you're talking about everyone having their needs met and volunteering 🤭 In reality billions will die and those that don't will move causing more conflict. There will be no era of abundance because we won't have the manpower to build it, yes, manpower.
The Devil makes work for idle hands
I’m in manufacturing and we already confirmed we could replace 70% of our staff with robots that are available now.
On the other hand, the companies designing, building, programming, and repairing robots are desperate for employees.
@@rockets4kids Sure so the people with IQ's of 140 or better will be fine.
What about all of the low-IQ trump voters? LOL
@@rockets4kidsYou make a very good point here. And those new professions will pay very well.
This is not new. In the days of the ancient Greeks the SAIL replaced hundreds of oarsmen ( a thankless job).
The steam engine replaced the sail, and created a whole new class of high paid tradesmen called “ Boiler makers” and “Engineers” who operated those boilers.
The “Steam Shovel” replaced hundred of men and their shovels.
The computer did the same to bank tellers. When was the last time you chatted with a bank teller when you deposited your pay check?
It is hard to envision exactly what these new technologies will will ultimately be but they will come.
All these robots will replace workers and make products for unemployed people to buy who won't have any mon... Hang on a minute.
Np jobs for illegal immigrants.
Sam been listening to you on and off for a long while. I listened to this episode TWICE , it surpassed your others imo. Not that the others were bad but this was top notch. You delivered it perfectly and conveyed the message just as well. I've been telling people this thing will hit like a tsunami but of course they think it's just waffle and switch off. There are a lot of people who will just stare at the thing instead of preparing. People should be made to listen to this episode as it sums it all up perfectly. Cheers for your effort.
Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it.
This is the truth with nearly zero uncertainty? No matter how good his track record, that overstates things IMO.
Somebody needs teach th robot schmuks how ta dance - i get nuthin
The only thing you can predict about the future is that it will be un-imaginable.
Dare I say, the whole Tony Seba thing on this channel is a bit cult-like.
@@ericdelf Yes/no. Some things about the future are impossible to imagine. Others are pretty easy. For example, how we interact with doors has changed little for generations, and is only now starting to change in a significant way due to the growing popularity of keypads. That's despite the fact that we have the technology to make it way more high tech than we do, but people aren't interested in paying huge sums for fancy tech when a simple lock and key is good enough. The future rarely looks as futuristic as people imagine it looking. To accurately predict the future, always cross-reference emerging ideas with what's likely to be affordable to deploy.
I don't dare to think about what this means for military applications. 😐
Or police. There could be robots following us around all day, every day.
@@mnhsty Now they just watch us.
WW3 is being fought now with drones.
It means no more soldiers dying in wars for the countries that have robots.
I'm worried about drones, they are in the front lines of wars, not humanoid robots.
Honestly, if you don't believe the robots are coming, may I suggest that they already are capable of replacing every single one of our politicians, and frankly doing a better job.😅😅
Politicians do an excellent job. Your mistake is assuming they're supposed to work for you
Lol😂
Yes, that will be the future world.
I thought everybody knew...JB is a low AI robot.
Logan's Run?
One fundamental fact being over looked by this presentation.
Supply and demand.
If the robots put everyone out of work, then where will the demand come from.
If no one has work, no one has purchasing power, no purchasing power no demand, no demand, no reason to build the product, and so on.
That fact is insurmountable.
you have the sad idea that you are a part of the paradigm . the paradigm eliminates you and me. can anyone argue we do NOT have enough humans ? the elites are eliminating humans .... there you go.
Put a tax on the robots and then give that money to the people.
If people are put out of work, no one will afford whatever these robots are building.
That's what *UBI* (Universal Basic Income) is for.
It'll keep you scraping by *_or,_* if you have brand, gumption, initiative, and/or skills you can get ahead.
They will all live in trees near Berlin gigafactory and come down to protest
If peoples labor isn't needed and everyone get Ubi to buy stuff isn't that just more money printing? That money isn't earned by a person's output. Only people with jobs are high tech workers since even your typical office admin staff will be taken by AI processes.
@@alhkcblack9617 Basically .. NO .. Money printing is only a problem because you can print money but not say a car so you end up with inflation, its not that moneys `earned` by human labour its that that human labour produced a object like a car, if you just print money and give it you have nothing BUT if you print money and produce enough `stuff` its not a problem.
YES but if we don't do this what do you want that children are always to spend their lives, their best years working in a factory, spend 5 in 7 days `working` .. I am 62 now and retired its wonderful I have just spent a English Summer's day sitting by a river with my dog, I will die in 20-30 years and I am sure I will not look back thinking how wonderful it was to spend my youth working shifts and not spending time with those I loved.
UBI for the love of god don`t let my children's children not live a full life free of work.
I studied Industrial Robotics in college in the early 1980's. We already have robots that can do most assembly line jobs already and do it much faster, cheaper and built more reliable products than most humans and have had them for at least 40 years.
Too bad you didn't learn how to write.
@@IsThisALongUserNameNo purpose built will be cheaper and better in 90 percent of used
The key missing part has been the AI to drive them in to more generic multi-purpose robotics.
With the advent of LLM's and companies like Open AI telling us "GPT 4 is about as dumb as it's ever gonna get, we already know what to do next", this will change everything!
We are moving from the Industrial age into the Information age.
@@paulward8087 We entered the Information Age decades ago, try to keep up.
@paulward8087 I totally agree,any idea where to invest other than Tesla?
Some remote communities in Australia already are functioning on UBI money, otherwise known as 'sit down money'. Sadly it tends to destroy many people by taking away their life's purpose and not making them feel useful.
thanks, I didn't know about this.
Would that be all the ones subject to twice the activity tests and work/study hours before they receive any benefit of those not in remote communities? (hint, I live in a rural Oz town and personally see exactly how it is applied, so think carefully before answering...)
@@boatbeard7767 I was thinking about some 'communities' in remote areas getting paid welfare with no expectation of doing paid work.
Some do useful work - rangers etc.., but others are total disasters.
Many thousands of years ago we were hunter gatherers, and we were happy. What does a hunter gatherer do whole day? And women? ;) Social life, hobbies, entertainment... oh the possibilities.
@@dddux irony is... we used to work less then, compared to now... something many people don't talk about
Based on fundamental value, everyone’s job became irrelevant years ago when jobs related to basic necessities were no longer required. Everything beyond that is merely an abstraction of value. Now, technology is catching up and automating the jobs it created. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it will require a paradigm shift-similar to how the invention of cars made owning a horse a matter of choice rather than necessity.
@16:00 “. . . much like it did in China, where the entire country was brought out of poverty in about a decade”. In fact, much of the population of China remains in poverty. In 2020 Chinese premier Li Keqiang pointed out that 600 million remain below China’s official poverty level. Today, that low income class is actually growing, not shrinking.
That's true, but a LOT of Chinese (and Indians) have been lifted out of poverty thanks to their embrace of capitalism and industries.
Remember when computers came out. Paper was supposed to be obsolete…. 25 years later, I’m still buying ink for the printer. Oh yeah and Ben Ashenden grew up without manners.
yeah but that's your fault, who cares Luddite?
@@benashenden-g4j huh, looky here an anonymous commenter with nothing to do.
Hope it’s not an HP
Still, printouts are becoming less and less now, mostly all online forms, bills, invoices, etc
And printers are still as unreliable expensive and rubbish as they’ve always been.
The one thing I’ve learnt in many years of software development is it as you conquer each Hill all you get is a view of the next one. It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that this Hill will be the last and this is the mistake that wrecks many a schedule. Whilst the optimist in me wants this to be the last AI hill there will be many more but hopefully the current one is the big one.
I am also a software developer, and while what you say is true - once you reach the top of one hill you see the next hill, it's still PROGRESS. Sure you never run out of hills. That's a good thing! Keeps us busy and keeps progress moving forward. But progress is progress.
yeah like walking over the dead bones that have gone before us, as others will be walking on ours shortly
@@ColinFox AI will make you obsolete very soon. Good luck.
Hello from Malaysia, Sam. Congratulations on the immensely informative content. By the way, that’s a nice elephant picture on the wall. 😀
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to Sam and all here.
Great new wealth doesn't eradicate poverty. An even safer prediction then that robots will outcompete us in the future is to predict that this will not be managed wisely.
How can you say that? It already has to a great extent.
Wealth is always achieved through leverage. If you don't understand that you don't understand wealth.
There will be more poverty. If there is no poverty, there is no rich.
Idle hands are the devil's workshop. This will be the end of humanity
@@Ffoo_ffighter Tell that to Norway.
Of all the thousands of videos you made, I think this is MOST important one..
The thing about inventions and technology is the unintended or unseen consequences. It gets humans every time.
Same thing goes for attempts at forced social changes.
Very good review Sam. Exactly what I warned the family about this week.
I almost fell out of my seat laughing when he said poverty would be eradicated. If no one has jobs no one has money to buy the goods and services and foods the companies who own the robots will provide. There is no motivation or historical evidence for the wealthy rulers to care for useless people if there is no profit to be made. I don’t think UBI will happen.
UBI will happen because politicians need to buy their votes.
First, in the first slide, batteries are not a source of energy. They provide storage for energy produced by wind and solar. Second, in the U.S., more expensive green energy has done nothing but reduce the standard of living for all Americans. I have my own solar panels to provide most of the power I need but I spent $36,000 for them. The average American doesn't even have $400 in the bank. Slight problem.
About one quarter of that price in Australia Mike. What’s going on mate?
@@darrylhughes4900 First .... import tariffs on the panels. Second ..... permitting and government approvals. Third ..... high cost of installation.
@@darrylhughes4900cost of install and paperwork is higher in US than AUS
There is going to be a massive recession as this transition happens. Like the change from coal to oil in the 1920s
Its going to be brutal. Insane fiscal deficits, unemployment rates, companies collapsing on their debts due to lack of demand. 1920s will look soft.
@@fernandopimentel5463 only the Western countries. The Asians are far to intelligent.
The 1920s were a period of rapid growth after the 1920-21 recession that ended quickly because the US government did not do anything to fix it.
There’s going to be no recession. There’s going to be massive production like the world has never seen. The prices of products including raw materials will decline across the board because of the lowering cost of labor. Robotics and intelligence will become cheaper and cheaper and accesible to more people.
The change from coal to oil caused the '29 crash? Really? How have you come to that conclusion? I'm fascinated.
E-Vike, your voice is too soothing for these disturbing times.
A very important youtube article, well done thank you - it must have taken a HUGE amount of research. 🎉 This report deserves an award, like an Oscar, if such a thing exists on youtube ?
I recall what automation can do when I worked for Schnider Electric in the late 90s' out of France These plants were so highly automated they caused overnight severe unemployment in the Normandy and Grenoble region. To address the issue the government required us to hire back employees to stop the machine ever so often to manually stack the products and move the products by forklifts to the shipping department which was not allowed to be automated..
when they should instead have just paid former employees to explore personal creativity with their newly acquired "leisure" time
The labour fudge fix was exactly what you’d expect from France.
@@rossr6616 Not profitable
Not allowed to be automated YET.
I'll be Chinese companies Schnidler was competing against didn't do that.
Have you ever seen “I Robot?” Yup it’s wonderful to think that robots will one day do everything people do. However, should these machines start to think and act like people do, we are SCREWED. Be careful what you wish for!
Exactly, much of Amaranthine discusses the biases that lead to civilization’s roller coaster cycle and how AI can help us correct for them
Even if the robots were benevolent, humans become animals when their hands aren't busy
I think people take too much from sci-fi. It's arrogant to believe we will be able to predict such things. We should be careful but my god some people would have us revert to stone tools
That says more about humanity than about robots, no?
Not only robot workers, but also robot soldiers, robot policemen, etc, with knowledge and power, no place to hide, i think we already have the robot taxman
What this means is that we will need a new economic system. We will need to find a way of getting money into the hands of humans and perhaps their jobs will be to spend money. Today, more people work at home or while traveling, and the concept of work is changing. It also means that these changes will affect our values; perhaps not working might be acceptable someday. Work is such a big part of how we and others see us. Yet in a world where human labor becomes too costly and inefficient, we will still need a way to sustain people. I have no doubts that robots will replace human labor, but then the question becomes, what happens to all those people? Thus the idea of a guaranteed national income might in the future not only become acceptable, but also necessary. Sam, I very much appreciate you tackling this difficult problem. It is a testimony that you are doing your job as a journalist to keep your public thinking.
Money is already becoming more and more useless
the earth cannot sustain endless consumption by humans who would be "paid to shop"
That’s mostly what Amaranthine is about, and how to leverage AI to make that possible
UBI is already necessary in most of the world before the existence of robots but doesn't happen.
It's so adorable you think they plan to keep an excess population around (no offense to you, it's just the math is clear if labour is a problem, so is housing and feeding that labour)
Thank You for helping us resist “brain rot” ! :)
If a robot company wanted a really dumb human job to trial in UK, I’d suggest a Tory MP. A suped up vacuum cleaner would probably do as well.
As we have recently seen with the Member from Dover, nobody really wants them.
Not sure if the analogy works, because the more that a vacuum cleaner sucks, the higher it is rated.
They don't have vacuum cleaners in the UK. They have Hoovers.
@@marvinhaagsma9177 ... and the better vacuums of bagless, unlike the Conservative windbags in Parliament.
Or a labour MP. The areas less likely to raise taxes to support lazy people are conservative held. Labour is the party for bums.
So the reason all prices will drop for business goods/ services, is because humans will be out of work and have reduced purchasing power?
Lol yes… hence another needed pandemic…
Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside.
One of your best videos to date, Mr. Electric Viking. Keep 'em coming. Thumbs UP !!
Good video. Personally, I've been saying humans were the horses for the last decade. That was when over 2000 robots replaced Chinese noodle chefs who were making under $3,000 per year.
However, I doubt there will be a Ubi and I think we will follow the Luddite model instead.
Also the start of this video felt a little bit overly padded. Say the teaser sentence once and then go to the video. Don't say the teaser sentence three to five times in various ways.
Your channel is wonderful. You gather a lot of information that would take me a lot of time to sift through and put it all in one place. Keep up the good work.
This is a much harder task than you think. Look at self driving. Tesla’s taken 10-15yrs and they aren’t close to replacing drivers.
Lie lie lie lie
Yeah, not even close. Elon is a con artist 😂
Actually, if weather and lighting is between good and excellent, FSD is getting good … and I say this as a person who was pretty critical of it only a few months ago.
However, they have a camera-only system, and if visibility is poor Tesla has a problem that doesn’t seem easily fixed with their current hardware. And robotaxis that only work in good weather are a problem.
I suggest you to look up the speed progress in their recent updates. Tesla FSD is improving rapidly since they invested in their $10B+ supercomputers.
they are obligated to say their tech is improving by leaps and bounds every keynote as they have been for the past decade, that is how they are inflating their value then diversifying to make money. the objective is money, not advanced tech.
I’m skeptical we will eliminate poverty. I expect a small number of people will control the vast majority of robots, and everyone else will grow poorer from lack of income. Investors are not spending billions to develop robots in order to give away the windfall profits. They intend to keep them! The capitalists will force the rest of us to end capitalism just to eat.
I have been saying all this for years now, it's not hard to imagine the future. But you said that all 7 billion people would be taken care of once they become redundant or something along those lines, Claus Shwab of the WEF says we need to reduce our total population to 500 million so we can afford a universal basic income 😮
If you were them…
500 million sounds like a good number 10million haves… 490 have nots / culled to 250MM to show them we dont play…
maybe Claus should be the first to step in line of his depopulation list- you know to set a good example.
That's what the plandemic test was for. Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside.
It's funny how those wishing for a smaller population don't put their lives where their mouth is.
Thanks as always for bringing this thought provoking content to us 👍
Tony Seba is correct. Humans need not apply. We are witnessing an S curve in disruption. It has taken longer than anticipated by many. However all the necessary technologies are converging. See Lights in the Tunnel by Martin Ford
Yes, but where did Seba actually say these things about robots? - I can't find him saying it anywhere but I've found plenty of vids saying he said all this but never a link
Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside.
This is how you do it. You have to be willing to disrupt your own company unless you want to become stagnant like GM/Toyota/BYD/VW.
bro sneaked BYD in there alongside Legacy autos. Fonny innit
Elon cares nothing about humans ..... Just money. His net worth is based on stock values. That's his money
Or back in the real world Toyota are experiencing record sales...
@@LaowaiDaveJCP 😆
@@jamie-ck6js….for now.
Wow. What effect will it have on society when most people have no work to do, even if they get paid for not working. People need something productive to keep them occupied or bad things can happen.
Ideally, arts and hobbies. Hand crafted will be special and valued. Travel. Work is something you do to live, but it's not why you live.
I am one with lots of hobbies and play several musical instruments. Looking forward to retirement soon, so I can spend my time in hobbies rather than stuck in an office.
Artificial intelligence regulatory agency is hiring
@user-zv8ph5du5t
UBI supporters claim this provides a great opportunity to do what people truly like and what's really needed but isn't profitable in a capitalistic society. From care homes for the elder to repair shops and many other services and social interactions. Most of these cannot be scaled and are therefore are not profitable currently or become crazily expensive like care homes.
Learn how to Cook better , grow your own food, more time for s*x , it's all good.
Hi Viking,
Love your work!
I own a CyberTruck. I'm looking forward to using my big wheels and tires to better crawl thru deep snow. Here, in the high plateaus of Utah, we have all the challenging driving conditions, but deep snow is the biggest problem. Unlike my other trucks (utes) F700, F350, Dodge Dakota, the Cyber has no differentials. Differentials as like dragging a huge boat anchor thru snow banks. They create resistance as far away from the wheels as possible and the longest reach with a shovel when your stuck and have to start digging.
Conversely, when I get my CyberTruck stuck, the whole vehicle will be suspended on packed snow, but no worries, because that's what the Extract mode is for. When I get stuck at 16" of clearance = "extra high" suspension, I'll just go up that extra inch and back out and drive home. Or go get my Volvo L25e (electric) loader and dig thru all the drifts I can't drive thru, recharging the 40kW loader directly from my CyberTruck as needed.
Offset is for posers. Lots of hill-billies here think they look cool in a brain-dead, Mad Max, sort of way, but it only accomplishes horrible road noise, huge losses in fuel economy, and putting extra stress on the suspension.
If you ask me, getting smaller wheels and tires with the hope of increasing range, but then moving them out to look cool, only creates extra drag and turbulence, thus defeats the purpose of obtaining more range, mate.
Cheers!
Thanks Mate!
great video Viking, thx!🎉❤
Legislate one robot per person so companies cannot have a monopoly AND everyone gets a free robot. You send your robot to work and you get paid. Problem solved. It's like getting solar panels and connecting to the grid - you're a passive producer and consumer.
This is actually a very clever thought!
Keep it up; this is a great way of redistributing the profits.
With a caveat: We should start unionized.
So you can't undercut someone else's robot in price.
Actually the most brilliant comment here!
Thats Old think Dave the 1% dont think like that they would sooner see everyone starve rather than lose a profit.
That is the best solution i ever heard of! Thanks… we habe to circulate that
No profit trying to grow food for unless eaters. Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside. The elite will have created what they want. Less people on the planet, less problems for them. What do you think the plandemic was for. It was just a test.
If more people are out of a job because of robots that means less tax revenue for the federal government and states so my guess is they will tax companies on a per robot basis to make up for the loss. Companies wanting to set up shop in states will have to agree to have a percentage of their workforce be human or states will not allow them to operate in that state or get any incentives. I do believe this is the future, but it will take a long time for politicians to embrace it!
If they artificially stop the robots, a country like China will rapidly surpass the USA. They have to do it no matter what.
You're assuming people who are displaced by robots won't find other jobs. I think they will, and they'll be taxed.
Computers, automation and robotics have been in use for twenty five years. People were forced to work less paid hours, part time employees without the benefits of full time employment. We have some of the most highly qualified people running lawn mowing businesses, making coffee in coffee shops, driving Uber cars, telemarketing and doing home deliveries. People do not have enough money to utilise their free time. The WEF intends people should share the experience by watching the rich in videos on TV or UA-cam.
Soylent Green
I cannot imagine that corporations will slash prices due to reduced labour costs.
We can't even recycle electric cars and plastics so now we will be fillings landfills with generations of obsolete robots.
Who is going to buy all this stuff the robots will be producing?
Wherr are all the raw materials going to come from to build all these robots?
It's the problem for the next generation whilst they retire in the Epstein-esque Seychelles. That's always been the Western game plan
We can recycle plastics 100%… In the year 2027. First commercial refinery to do this is being built in Finland.
The prices already are slashed due to automation. Do you have any idea how much a smartphone, TV, or automobile would cost if they were 100% made by hand?
@@verttikoo2052at what costs ?. not every country has their oil revenues to subsidize thia
@@northrockboy ?? What are you talking about?? The refinery can use green energy. Refining oil needs energy and oil is heavily subsidized.
This is a commercial refinery so it produces raw materials that can be sold and energy can be produced with wind and solar. Now all the plastics are dumped in the oceans and landfills so there is plenty of material 😱
I just wonder where all the electricity is going to come from.
For a power plant, construction time alone is 5 years or more. Or are we using batteries to smooth out the duck curve while also running existing power plants at peak levels all the time?
if you watch this channel regularly, you'll know the cost of batteries is going down fast
The Empire State Building was built in one year. Powerplants are neither larger nor more complex, especially if we standardize regulations and facilities and rebuild a more robust and dispersed grid at the same time.
In WW2 some ships were built in a week instead of a year. Amazing what planning can accomplish.
@@lyfandeth Agreed that people can organize to do great things. But I feel that was a "different era". I'm optimistic on the future, pessimistic on this timeframe.
The Empire State Bldg was designed before, but built during the great depression when labor was extremely cheap. In a race for tallest building back then, that by itself was compelling enough to continue building, ultra cheap labor enabled the building owner to get it done faster than otherwise possible. (consider the lack of safety regulations at the time too).
And during WW2, we were a much more united country. Today whether this gets done will depend on who’s in office and their position on oil. Power plant construction is already regulated for all the types of energy production...and further standardization would mean the gov't chooses a couple designs from each production type...to do this in time, this will have to be plant design that has already been developed by particular companies. We also have to do environmental studies before starting all these construction sites.
I'm just more pessimistic that this can actually happen in a decade. Personally, I think small modular nuclear reactors, distributed as necessary around the country, is the way to go. But that also seems unlikely in the next decade with the unreasonable aversion to nuclear.
Nuclear fission.
Vehicle batteries, are going to level the grid load by sharing power, while plugged in. 10 kwh of energy from a parked vehicle, that wants to share, for a cash payment,, times 100,000 vehicles, makes ALL the difference
He's also been prophesising fully unassisted self driving cars next year for the last decade.
Elon doesn't have a great track record with timing. However, he's been right 99% of the time and most of his predictions and plans have come to pass. Still waiting on absolute FSD, but if you take one out for a test drive now, you will be amazed. It's stunning how good it is. Remember the model S only came out in 2012, so 12 years from the new car to a car that can almost drive itself. This is INCREDIBLE and people are like "yawn, still waiting". Jesus christ, this is ridiculous. This is like that Louis CK skit where he's talking about people flying and being disappointed because the seat doesn't go back much.
@@ColinFox Elon is one of my favorite Oligarchs, but he is a confidence man/salesman through and through. He makes a lot of empty promises in order to increase his company's stock price. Promising to be the last out, and then sells a bunch of his overinflated stock with the free speech excuse killing his supporters portfolios. Nice trick. Being the best Oligarch does not say much.
I like how he fights for free speech, (see trick above) but I have a hard time believing anything he says. Some of what he says may come true though. Even a clock is right... yadda yadda yadda. But You always have to keep in mind that he is also trying to manipulate the masses for his personal gain.
Just curious. What has come to pass? He runs a rocket company that has a much worse track record than when the GOVERMENT RAN IT. lol. He makes the worst, most expensive electric vehicles IMO that you are forced to have him fix when it inevitably breaks down. He advertises bullet proof glass that doesn't break only when soy boy is throwing with limp wrist. I will give you that he is a great confidence man, and he can get people to follow him no matter what he promises without delivering. That is it in a nutshell. Great con man.
My thought is with the increase in production capabilites and oncomming job displacments, how will GPD go up if not down if spending is down?? Im all for change and the tech btw im not really driven by any particuler outcome or have an answer but an interesting question. Will the tech get cheeper if industry slows down due to lack of demand...We will see some big changes in the next 5 years when some of the giant conmpanies start to collapose due to lack of demand. Im tipping one of the legacy auto makers to vanish in the next months (Ford/GM or VW).
Re "why Elon Musk is no longer interested in EVs", that probably explains why so many have chosen to resign rather than stay.
That to me was the most disturbing statement in the video - not good for customers, his employees or investors
The next generation of EV will have PV Charging on their Windscreen, their body works and requiring less power to travel 1000km.
That is why Elon Musk is now focusing on the next generation of Industry and Business - Robots and Food.
Elon is an explorer. Once he's conquered an area, he gets bored and wants to move on to something new and exciting.
When a robot can change the sheets on a king size bed I will begin to believe.
When a robot can join me in the bed I will begin to believe.
I agree with this video. Bots are coming and there is only a decade or so til most of us are pushed out. Most importantly is autonomy in my opinion. I believe Tesla is ahead by 2 steps due to fsd and autonomy. Data lead is unassailable. Tesla will sell the software as it will be too late to try to catch up when Tesla is too far ahead with so much data incoming every second of every day. Great vid Sam! Loving the long fermentation format. Many thanks;-)
Not a decade - must faster than that so don't procrastinate..
They are not coming. It's an insanely, mind bogglingly difficult task. Tesla has a team of what looks like about 120 people on it. Even 12,000 wouldnt be enough.
@@SovrinWealth Ok so in less than a decade most of us have no job and no money, and the robot companies immediately go bust when no one can afford to buy anything...
@@jamie-ck6js To keep the starving rioting hordes at bay, the government will be forced to tax robotics companies more heavily to pay for U.B.I (Universal Basic Income)
Humanoid robots will not be able to take over jobs unless it is a dangerous job, driving jobs or a food serving job, then you will be replaced. It will take maybe 100 years before they replace everyone in a retail store. I would like to see them do recieving. Haha. You will be waiting a long time.
What most people don't realise, the Office jobs will go first, as you have already seen in the banking industry. Most office workers spend most of their working day moving information from one computer network to another with AI they are not needed the computers can now talk to each other themselves there is no need for humans. Manual labour will be the last to go, all these people going to University to train in accountancy and law are redundant already. Don't look at the manual workers, look at yourself first the computers you are using don't need you any more they don't need keyboard input, be warned
if we do not have work, how will we derive meaning out of our lives? Apart from money, people (especially men) derive a sense of purpose and meaning from their work. Without it, they destroy themselves.
Most people will derive their value by weeding municipal lawns and gardens. That's why it's key to be able to distinguish weed from good turf and pull it up by the root accordingly.
They will have to grow up, quickly!
@@IsThisALongUserNamethe religious nuts will be the end of it all.
@@MrSteeDoo Sorry but the non religious have created AI and robots to take the place of humans. Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside. Religion won't save us either.
Sounds like a good problem to have.
EV sales are slipping all across the world (especially where not subsidised by gov/manufacturers).
Current state of EV costs, devaluation, range, weight, charging infrastructure/cost, fire risk/insurance costs are just not worth it for the average income person.
100 right. Early adopters and EV lovers already have their EV. Ordinary people who can't charge at home or who have to take long trips don't want EVs.
Not in Nordic countries
You can foresee that this disruption will also shatter our current political and economic models. If people are to be looked after, rather than be impoverished by this, enormous change will be required - possibly with some nasty conflict.
Another plandemic but a real one not just a test.
A UBI is harmful to the people who receive it. It takes away drive and ambition. People who can just sit around the house doing nothing useful, become neurotic, depressed, and they start doing antisocial behaviors. It's like putting a wild animal in a zoo with plenty of food or water but no need to hunt.
Sam, thanks for the information! I do have to say that this disruption is something that needs to be deeply studied and analyzed before it is allowed. Let’s not forget that in many of these cases, the disruption is to normal people, while the owners and stakeholders of the corporations just rake in the profits.
It is assumed that purpose in life comes from work. However creative work especially is not repetative grind, art or poetry has no practical value but is fun. Secondly spiritual inner work, more fulfilling lives, growing our vision of life is another possibility. The obsession with owning stuff is not the only way of life. We will have time to do what we love.
There’s a deep satisfaction in doing any useful work. If you wash windows for a living and are able to support your family, be proud of that.
I don't think mankind will be around in another 75 years,...let alone hundreds. Jesus Christ is my Savior.. is he YOURS?
@@frankfromupstateny3796 If I'm not around in 75 years time what is there to be saved....only joking, relax.
There is no purpose in life except to procreate. It is called nature. There is no good or bad, only survival of the fittest.
As a general rule, people who do no useful work become neurotic and depressed. Often they start doing antisocial things. It's unhealthy.
"Will tell you with almost zero uncertainty, what will happen over the next 10-20 years"
Viking... I watch less and less because you're so loose with everything you say and wrong so often when you mix yours or others predictions into your videos.
Isn't Herbert Diess supposed to be the next Tesla CEO and the next Gigafactory in Canada?
Color temperature (K) is just the color of the light bulb it's not the power output. Power output is measured in lumens.
Power is measured in Watts. Brightness is measured in lumens.
This scenario appears pretty bleak to those who are already at the bottom of the food chain but when considering the parallel advances into the solar system with the colonization and terraforming of mars, the moon and later Venus, all made possible by both robotics and humanities need to create and explore. Seba does a good job projecting the advances in the industries and tying it to social change he neglects to include extra Terran advances as well. Overall a very good and highly informative production. Thanks.
24:20 Regarding university tuition fees: Look at Denmark, no university tuition fees for Danes. Danes get paid for studying.
Danes are taxed for eveerything
This will generate a big demand for metals, speciality alloys, new materials and plastics. Expect the mining industry to be on the cutting edge of new technological development to meet the demand but humans will still be needed to manage the environmental and social impacts.
100% guarantee that there will be major pushback to new mines in developed countries. It will be on Native American ground, or it will disrupt the life of some rare worm, or the runoff will ruin a river, or...
Remember, people in Australia, wind and solar, need batteries when it's dark or not windy and battery technology is not looking that good. We're getting closer to that year when we can no longer use fossil fuel and can't buy energy from our neighbours as we live on an island. Let us forget our outdated biases and look towards nuclear power.
nuclear power is hard to maintain, control and store but there's your answer if you are wanting to get rid of the millions out of work problem
Irrelevant comment unrelated to clip.
@@mrmark44it's probably nuclear power industry. They post this stuff everywhere under science related topics. How great and safe they are. When in reality they lied about Chernobyl. And continue to lie and gaslight people. And they never tell when there is release of radioactive material from nuclear power plants and people are oblivious to it. And then new yorkers make surprised faces when they have 3 times national average rate of thyroid cancer
Thanks for the honest and clear commentary. Love your work
Appreciate it!
I can see the vision but question who will be buying the products of this new level of productivity. Could a UBI be equal to a successfully employed worker or professional? What if UBI is modest like Social Security and we all live in modest apartments like Soviet Russians. Will the eventual equilibrium be better or worse for most of us?
it will be better for 90% of the people on earth. Might not be for people in the west.
UBI will be used to destroy ourselves
Certainly an intriguing prediction. Only 20 years? I can't imagine that to be honest, 50 years maybe. I'll be happy to eat my words though.
If you had the chance to use FSD latest version, you may reconsider that time frame. As a 55 year old guy with 40 years of driving experience, it's absolutely mind blowing. Terrifying.
😂 how long did it take to get from the Right Brothers to the moon?
@@ChuckHolland-i4b I can imagine it is pretty good. It is one thing transitioning from one type of transport to another but to transition from human to robotic, I'm not sure about. There are so many (positive) aspects of human behaviour that need to be digitalised which will take a long time to master. Ok, AI could work this out in seconds but to turn that into robotic action?
I think 20 years is too much in terms of a prediction, honestly
@@Flickerbrain I don't disagree. Once the governmnet and companies can realize they can make a fortune cutting out all of their labor, it will be a race to ground zero.
"Soylent green" is describing what will happen to most of us. We will be food or fertilizer...
Humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside.
Based on the novel - Make Room! Make Room! by Harry Harrison
We all should be fertilizer at some point in our life, preferably after the book is closed.
That's the "Green New Deal."
Thanks for reiterating Tony Seba and RethinkX's powerful message and brilliant insights. I've been following him and his team for a decade and been astounded by the accuracy of their predictions.
Every decision-maker in government and industry would better serve their constituents and shareholders by understanding the technicalogical disruption s-curve cycles.
Keep expanding on his message, Sam.
We, the people who will have to live through these massive changes, need to be prepared for them.
I honestly believe it is the path to a ST:TNG future - but it will be painful if we don't plan for the transition.
Yes, what you predict is certainly possible. The problem is greed or ,more accurately,the desire of some to have more than others. You can see this phenomenon in the healthcare system in USA . It’s cheaper to give care to everyone but those who can afford the present system are appalled that poor people can get equal treatment.
Yeah this is why i'm very concerned about this level of automation coming. It only works if we also implement Universal Basic Income (and do so fully with no compromises), and places like the USA would NEVER do that because capitalists/conservatives love hoarding wealth and watching poor/middle class people struggle to get by. Even if we did UBI, it wouldn't happen without DECADES of fighting over it and millions of poor people dying of starvation before they actually agree on a highly watered down version of it (like raising the minimum wage). Like you said, this basically already is what we have with our healthcare system that fails 95% of us.
Medical treatment can never be equal. The more you pay the better treatment you will get, thats not a function of greed but a consequence of the inherent nature of goods and services. The best brain surgeon on the planet cannot perform brain surgery on everyone, someone has to get the C- student that became a brain surgeon.
@@S-we2gp You're only looking at it from the high end. You should be looking at the low end. The barrier for entry and the bare minimum being unaffordable for people who need it the most. That part is 100% a function of greed and is on purpose. It easily could be equal and widely available if the powers that be simply wanted/allowed it to be. No one is saying a homeless guy should be able to get the top brain surgeon in the world. The issue is a poor person even with insurance still has to pay absurd money out of pocket and when you focus on the bogus example you did, that's why it never changes.
Robot medical services will be cheap.
@@VMYeahVN The reason the prices are so high isnt capitalism its governmental interference, regulation, and bureaucracy. It is absolutely insane that when you go in to get an xray they cant tell you the price and they'll just make it up later. We dont operate this way in any other aspect of life. This is why we're getting price gouged, I agree its a complete scam and there is definitely greed. However anyone that thinks that the government being more involved in any service will improve the quality is insane. The government literally cannot do anything well, there real job is policing and national defense thats it.
Once these benevolent tech companies start handing out the sexbots, nobody’s gonna wanna leave their their UBI homes.
Works for me.
Nobody will pay the taxes for ubi
Didn’t Futurarama do an episode about the dangers of Robo luv ;-) i.e. no more humans being produced
@@Dilbert-o5k The companies using the robots will pay the taxes which will be distributed as UBI, actually UGI (Universal Good Income qv. Elon Musk). This is also in the companies interest, because they need consumers with money to buy their goods and services.
@@Dilbert-o5k The bots productivity would be taxed, plenty to go around for all.
Mr Electric Viking aka Sam. Here is a partial list companies may save on. Insurance, workman’s comp, 401K, bathrooms, water, food, HVAC, lighting, sound mitigation. Anyone care to add to the list? Feel free 😅
Foxconn already had 10 lights-out factories in 2016