9:49 Sadly this isn’t true. BaseballSavant blatantly says that their run value is calculated on a per-pitch basis in their pitch arsenal leaderboards. Otherwise, good video.
Sincere question - Even with RV being per-pitch, isn't more RV generated from a putaway than a set-up? For example, pitcher throws a 1-0 changeup for a strike. later in the at bat, on 3-2, the pitcher throws a slider for strike 3. Assuming all pitches between are fastballs, doesn't the slider generate more RV? If so, I think Bailey's point would still be correct, but please correct me if I'm wrong.
At this point the only baseball content I pay attention to is Foolish, and yet it's more interesting than ever. Really enjoy and appreciate these "unusual stat" type videos.
Vertical Approach Angle seems like it would be an instrumental part of Randy Johnson's success with his massive stride and three-quarters delivery. Now I'm just here wishing that he pitched during the Statcast era.
@@DJsocial7102 Ya. It's basically Edwin Diaz but throwing 7+ innings instead of 1. Dude was absolutely nasty. Kinda sad there's no statcast of the bird pitch.
When hitters talked about facing him it’s the horizontal or lateral approach angle they always brought up…his arms were so long that with his sidearm, cross body delivery it felt like the ball was coming straight at you.
The spreadsheet with VAA numbers unlocked a whole new level of understanding for me when it comes to baseball analysis. Along with Stuff+ and Location+, we have the tools to understand which relievers are actually good without having to rely on small sample size ERA and similar such stats.
I’m not done yet with the video but as a hitter, when the fastball looks like it “rises” it adds so much perceived velocity because it goes against everything you know as a hitter. Hard to explain unless you’ve experienced it.
@ae648 Why? None of this is news to players, they just couldn't measure it before now. I mean ted williams wrote a whole book about launch angle, for example.
10:11 Unfortunately the bit about Diaz not giving up any homers got broken up last night by Lane Thomas, after I assume you finished filming. Still really informative video tho!
One thing that wasn't explicitly stated here (but was touched on a few times, esp in the Verlander/Altuve visual) -- VAA is location-dependent! If I throw a fastball above the strike zone, it'll have a lower VAA than a fastball that I spike in front of the plate. Those are two extreme examples, but basically, throwing higher in the zone results in lower VAAs
If you're particularly old and hate numbers, think of this as a video on how Gibson's fastball was harder to hit compared to other fastballs of its velocity because Gibson threw half his body across the mount to get the ball that far across the mound. Sure, it's a classic 3/4 delivery, but it was difficult to read out of his hand.
Something else I thought of about the lower approach angle is simple visual acuity. When a pitch comes down at you, you have a little more data on its angle and curve because it's slightly closer to seeing its trajectory from the side, so you have more of a chance to accurately understand where it's going. If a pitch is coming straight at you, it's coming straight at you, so you have less of that chance. Like how sometimes people will lose a fly ball because it was coming right at them, misjudging it as maybe being short when it was going over their head. I think there's a little bit of inherent ambiguity in having such a low approach angle that helps disguise the location of the pitch.
To my knowledge run value isn't just based on the last pitch of a PA, it applies to all pitches. The goal of it is to eliminate the bias that comes from "batters hit .XXX off his slider". The Statcast numbers show why the slider has a much better run value, it drew whiffs on 10% more swings and had a wOBA 100 points lower when put in play.
Love this video, he definitely manipulates his fastball to where it is deceiving and has a rise or ride to it. Still wish we could have him on the Mets but he’s just too good
This got me thinking about other guys in the past who got away with a lighter velo fb but still pitched like guys with heavy stuff. John Maine was always throwing 90-92 down the pipe and blowing guys away, the booth would even say so. I wonder if his extension and arm angle data would align with this premise?
Great explanation! I knew his elite extension was a reason for his fastball’s success, but I didn’t know about VAA and how he’s able to stay on top of his fastball even with a low arm angle.
Please make a video about Dane Dunning. He's the Rangers starting pitcher who started in the bullpen this year, but returned as a starter this year. His fastball is only 91-92 MPH, but has an awesome slider and pitches to contact.
I have never played baseball in my life. I wouldn't even know where to start with a ball, bat, or glove but goddammit if I'm not sitting here tb "yep yep but his extension IS longer and that plus his vertical launch and sidearm..." lmao Foolish is a big reason I watch baseball now simply bc this shit is so damn nerdy, niche, and plain cool to learn.
Bailey was thinking I feel like a good video you could make is finding the most average player in the majors who has played a decent amount. Havent really found a player like that
Add in the fact kids are throwing offspeed stuff, not playing other sports, and playing all year round for much longer; and Tommy John Surgery is a borderline prerequisite to play in mlb now.
I've never really looked into this, but I know that lowering the mound back around 1968 led to a pretty consistent gradual increase in leaguewide offense and this was done pretty intentionally. The thing that makes me think is that this is basically the antithesis of having the crazy effective flat fastball, and yet both having a higher mound and having a low vertical approach angle are both seemingly positive influences on pitching. Maybe the higher mound doesn't help fastballs, but significantly helps breaking pitches. I'd want to get to the bottom of this.
Do your spin the other way on the sidearm demonstration…the sidearm 4 seamer cuts arm side, like a screwball. 2 seamers and changeups will have that same movement with good spin.
Ok but high VAA opens up more pitching options. You can be more deceptive with your downward breaking balls because the “hop” out of the hand is less noticeable.
The Mariners pitching dev team is way ahead on this stuff, and they're reaping the benefits. Notice how many of those leaderboards are populated by M's or former M's.
People look at velo stats and decide if a player is mid or not, he is effective, he’s a very good reliever, does it matter how he his fb looks if he’s effective?
As a low VAA guy myself, I can tell you that it gives you a major advantage, especially if you’re still able to generate any kind of spin efficiency/backspin. I didn’t throw hard, but could still “gas guys up” by attacking the upper quadrant of the zone with a 4 seamer. Sort of unconventional compared to what the norm is for low VAA guys, as they usually throw sinkers/2sFBs with lower spin efficiencies. Diaz looks like a miserable AB. Other thing to note is pitch usage. Only 50% FBs, keeping dudes off balance and guessing
So in your explanation of "contact happy zone" it seems like you're saying that because batters have a certain expectation of a league average pitcher, they slightly adjust their swing, and so it's important for pitchers to simply be away from that average in terms of VAA, not simply a low number. Is that actually true, or is it actually advantageous to be specifically low with VAA? I.e. would a VAA that's significantly higher than league average also be similarly advantageous? (I'm not really convinced such a thing would be possible, as you'd probably have to be absurdly tall or something for such a thing to be realistic) More of a thought experiment than anything.
9:49 Sadly this isn’t true. BaseballSavant blatantly says that their run value is calculated on a per-pitch basis in their pitch arsenal leaderboards. Otherwise, good video.
Sincere question - Even with RV being per-pitch, isn't more RV generated from a putaway than a set-up? For example, pitcher throws a 1-0 changeup for a strike. later in the at bat, on 3-2, the pitcher throws a slider for strike 3. Assuming all pitches between are fastballs, doesn't the slider generate more RV? If so, I think Bailey's point would still be correct, but please correct me if I'm wrong.
At this point the only baseball content I pay attention to is Foolish, and yet it's more interesting than ever. Really enjoy and appreciate these "unusual stat" type videos.
Fr
foolish and everyone from jomboy media are the goats
Vertical Approach Angle seems like it would be an instrumental part of Randy Johnson's success with his massive stride and three-quarters delivery. Now I'm just here wishing that he pitched during the Statcast era.
And he threw over 100 no wonder he was so dominant.
@@DJsocial7102 Ya. It's basically Edwin Diaz but throwing 7+ innings instead of 1. Dude was absolutely nasty. Kinda sad there's no statcast of the bird pitch.
When hitters talked about facing him it’s the horizontal or lateral approach angle they always brought up…his arms were so long that with his sidearm, cross body delivery it felt like the ball was coming straight at you.
Coincidentally, he too had a wipeout slider that people forget to mention.
Would love to see more of these types of videos explaining guys that are good or elite because what they excel at is another layer or two deeper
This video helped something click for me pitching I'm blitzball today. "Pitchers are tall people who throw downhill" really resonated with me thanks!
Thank you for this Bailey, Alexis Diaz just gave up his first home run on his fastball last night!
LANE THOMAS BABY!!!
@@danieloppenheimer6243 pain. suffering. agony.
The spreadsheet with VAA numbers unlocked a whole new level of understanding for me when it comes to baseball analysis. Along with Stuff+ and Location+, we have the tools to understand which relievers are actually good without having to rely on small sample size ERA and similar such stats.
SEE THE MAN PITCH THE BALLLLL
SEE THE MAN HIT THE BALLLLLL
“Fact, pitchers are tall people who stand on hills” classic Bailey, just dropping one of the funniest things I’ve ever heard in there casually
I’m slowly learning everything I thought I knew about baseball was kinda wrong. And there’s normally a really cool thing I didn’t know.
It’s great
I’m not done yet with the video but as a hitter, when the fastball looks like it “rises” it adds so much perceived velocity because it goes against everything you know as a hitter. Hard to explain unless you’ve experienced it.
Oppo. This is the beginning of the end for baseball, and although I like Bailey's inspection, baseball is already passing its prime.
@ae648 Why? None of this is news to players, they just couldn't measure it before now. I mean ted williams wrote a whole book about launch angle, for example.
10:11 Unfortunately the bit about Diaz not giving up any homers got broken up last night by Lane Thomas, after I assume you finished filming. Still really informative video tho!
Alexis and Edwin have almost identical deliveries. It's gotta be pretty fun having your brother with identical mechanics to bounce ideas off of.
As a reds fan who was unimpressed with Diaz off of more standard numbers and one shaky relief appearance this is a great video!
These stats are crazy. Great breakdown
4:07 this is the most effective explanation of VAA and why it matters that currently exists on the Internet
shoutout Super Mega Baseball 4 indeed, most fun I’ve had in a sports game in a while
Fantastic analysis. Thanks Bailey!
Absolute masterpiece Bailey, bravo fr
One thing that wasn't explicitly stated here (but was touched on a few times, esp in the Verlander/Altuve visual) -- VAA is location-dependent! If I throw a fastball above the strike zone, it'll have a lower VAA than a fastball that I spike in front of the plate. Those are two extreme examples, but basically, throwing higher in the zone results in lower VAAs
If you're particularly old and hate numbers, think of this as a video on how Gibson's fastball was harder to hit compared to other fastballs of its velocity because Gibson threw half his body across the mount to get the ball that far across the mound. Sure, it's a classic 3/4 delivery, but it was difficult to read out of his hand.
"Has not allowed a single home run [off the fastball]" Rough time to post that after last night lol
It’s honestly amazing Bailey hasn’t been signed to be apart of some analytics department of a team yet. In due time my friend
7:37 - Ugh. I'm amped up. I like it. 💀
loved this vid bailey thank you
Something else I thought of about the lower approach angle is simple visual acuity. When a pitch comes down at you, you have a little more data on its angle and curve because it's slightly closer to seeing its trajectory from the side, so you have more of a chance to accurately understand where it's going. If a pitch is coming straight at you, it's coming straight at you, so you have less of that chance. Like how sometimes people will lose a fly ball because it was coming right at them, misjudging it as maybe being short when it was going over their head. I think there's a little bit of inherent ambiguity in having such a low approach angle that helps disguise the location of the pitch.
I have become a baseball fan the last couple of years because of the sabermetrics portion of the game, and it is mostly due to this channel
Favorite baseball youtuber
Phenomenal Video
this video was awsome! what a fun new stat to learn a bit about.
4:39 art
I love your breakdowns dude, didn't find this channel until today but I love your other Foolish vids too. Keep them coming!
0:53 dope angle on that pitch
Great video
oh boy, my lover foolish bailey released a new video!
To my knowledge run value isn't just based on the last pitch of a PA, it applies to all pitches. The goal of it is to eliminate the bias that comes from "batters hit .XXX off his slider". The Statcast numbers show why the slider has a much better run value, it drew whiffs on 10% more swings and had a wOBA 100 points lower when put in play.
Love this video, he definitely manipulates his fastball to where it is deceiving and has a rise or ride to it. Still wish we could have him on the Mets but he’s just too good
Great video, super informative!
Top tier content. 👍
awesome vid!
Good data analytics skills !
“Pitchers are tall people who stand on a hill” print the shirts.
Great video! For a while, I’ve been wondering why pitchers with similar peripherals can vary so drastically in effectiveness.
This got me thinking about other guys in the past who got away with a lighter velo fb but still pitched like guys with heavy stuff. John Maine was always throwing 90-92 down the pipe and blowing guys away, the booth would even say so. I wonder if his extension and arm angle data would align with this premise?
Blud crushed my soul at a recent Cubs game. Nothing but sliders and everyone bit lol😊
great video bailey, also I love you
Best video
Great explanation! I knew his elite extension was a reason for his fastball’s success, but I didn’t know about VAA and how he’s able to stay on top of his fastball even with a low arm angle.
I was playing smb against my friend and I did bring you in and I did not know you were left handed which is cool because so am I
3:42 has some REALLY REALLY unfortunate graphics on the ad behind home plate when you overlay like that.
I was just wondering if you could do a video on Christian Javier and why he was so dominant last year but isn’t this year
Please make a video about Dane Dunning. He's the Rangers starting pitcher who started in the bullpen this year, but returned as a starter this year. His fastball is only 91-92 MPH, but has an awesome slider and pitches to contact.
Bailey knows SMB4! Yessssss!
I have never played baseball in my life. I wouldn't even know where to start with a ball, bat, or glove but goddammit if I'm not sitting here tb "yep yep but his extension IS longer and that plus his vertical launch and sidearm..." lmao Foolish is a big reason I watch baseball now simply bc this shit is so damn nerdy, niche, and plain cool to learn.
Bailey was thinking I feel like a good video you could make is finding the most average player in the majors who has played a decent amount. Havent really found a player like that
Run from it, hide from it, dread it, the Tim Keefe video is waiting
I wonder what degrom's perceived fastball velocity is. I know he gets crazy extension off the mound
He has flatter VAA than the majority as well
avg velo of 98.4, perceived of 99.4
Lane Thomas just took his fastball deep last night. That's an unfortunate jinx by you.
Spinrate on Diaz fastball is what makes that pitch so effective.
MORE IRL BASEBALL DEMONSTRATIONS BAILEY 🗣️🗣️🗣️
6:35 holy shit Bailey is jacked
Paul Sewald mentioned!!
Seeing how much average velocity has grown in the past 15 years it's no wonder everyone and their mom is getting tommy john.
Add in the fact kids are throwing offspeed stuff, not playing other sports, and playing all year round for much longer; and Tommy John Surgery is a borderline prerequisite to play in mlb now.
Who’s out here thinking Alexis Diaz is mid?? Show yourselves
Ignore the bats in our hands, we just wanna talk!
Im a reds fan and yeah hes mid (or maybe im just pissed he lost us last nights game)
@@irfbjifi3rufbui3bf35Fairchild lost you that game 😉
@@irfbjifi3rufbui3bf35 Bell lost us that game
@@wolfboy8667yeah not putting fraley in was a massive mistake and they kept Diaz in for too long
Would love to see a series like this done for all closers....like a 30 in 30 maybe?
Ah yes, the Carter Capps strat
so what your saying is short torso is the new inefficiency, long stride, low release
I've never really looked into this, but I know that lowering the mound back around 1968 led to a pretty consistent gradual increase in leaguewide offense and this was done pretty intentionally. The thing that makes me think is that this is basically the antithesis of having the crazy effective flat fastball, and yet both having a higher mound and having a low vertical approach angle are both seemingly positive influences on pitching. Maybe the higher mound doesn't help fastballs, but significantly helps breaking pitches. I'd want to get to the bottom of this.
Don’t forget Koji Uehara’s fastball is too slow but so efficient
Do your spin the other way on the sidearm demonstration…the sidearm 4 seamer cuts arm side, like a screwball. 2 seamers and changeups will have that same movement with good spin.
Spencer Strider being short makes me wonder what this data would look like for prime tim lincecum
Also curious about what this data looks like for tyler rogers
Bro just released a baseball bits on his second channel.
Jolly olive and foolish baseball collab?
this just made me sad we dont have paul sewald anymore
Ok but high VAA opens up more pitching options. You can be more deceptive with your downward breaking balls because the “hop” out of the hand is less noticeable.
Luis Castillo and Emmet Sheehan are 2 more VAA guys :)
The devil works hard, but Bailey works harder
The guns are 6:35 are gonna get you demonetized.
The Mariners pitching dev team is way ahead on this stuff, and they're reaping the benefits. Notice how many of those leaderboards are populated by M's or former M's.
Can someone explain how you find those perceived velocity numbers on baseball savant?
People look at velo stats and decide if a player is mid or not, he is effective, he’s a very good reliever, does it matter how he his fb looks if he’s effective?
Can you post more plz
future met alexis diaz
Naturally Lane Thomas took Diaz' fastball deep last night lol
What did we learn today? Michael Grove needs to lower his arm slot on his fastball delivery
THROW EM THE BREAKER BAILEY
As a low VAA guy myself, I can tell you that it gives you a major advantage, especially if you’re still able to generate any kind of spin efficiency/backspin. I didn’t throw hard, but could still “gas guys up” by attacking the upper quadrant of the zone with a 4 seamer. Sort of unconventional compared to what the norm is for low VAA guys, as they usually throw sinkers/2sFBs with lower spin efficiencies. Diaz looks like a miserable AB.
Other thing to note is pitch usage. Only 50% FBs, keeping dudes off balance and guessing
As I typed this, you started explaining exactly my point 😂😂
Seeing Bryan woo all over these charts makes me realize he has a lot more potential as a starter if he refines his stamina and pitch accuracy
So in your explanation of "contact happy zone" it seems like you're saying that because batters have a certain expectation of a league average pitcher, they slightly adjust their swing, and so it's important for pitchers to simply be away from that average in terms of VAA, not simply a low number. Is that actually true, or is it actually advantageous to be specifically low with VAA? I.e. would a VAA that's significantly higher than league average also be similarly advantageous? (I'm not really convinced such a thing would be possible, as you'd probably have to be absurdly tall or something for such a thing to be realistic) More of a thought experiment than anything.
Yes. Exactly. Cookie cutter gets hit hard. Being an outlier in either direction is better.
This is why you should be in the BBWAA
Who’s here after Lane Thomas just took his fastball yard
W
😮
who said he's mid?
Why Nate Mclouth Isn’t MID
See I’m convinced the reason his fastball is “league average” is because he’s thrown every fastball this year
nothing wrong with being mid, just means you’re better than half the league
-me, from the apex of the bell curve
He gave up a home run on the fastball a few days ago… you jinxed it :(
reverse jinx diaz gave up a homerun last night 😞
But what about the movem- ...oh ok.
talk about felix bautista lol