Magician Gets KK And An OUTRAGEOUS Deal
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- Опубліковано 6 лют 2018
- Antonio Esfandiari is up to his old tricks, laying the trap with his pocket kings after making a massive preflop isolation raise. However, his opponent Darol Rodrock isn't going anywhere. All the money ends up in the middle, with some of it going toward a peculiar deal. What should you do when negotiations like this go down? Let's talk about it.
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Subscribe for more wsop vlog, news, comedy, and hand breakdowns. Poker Hands is the show where Doug analyzes live poker hands from tv poker shows such as Poker After Dark, EPT (European Poker Tour), High Stakes Poker, the World Series of Poker (WSOP), the Aussie Millions, WPT (World Poker Tour) the Big One For One Drop, and the PCA (Pokerstars Carribean Adventure). He especially enjoys reviewing hands by popular high stakes pros like Viktor "Isildur" Blom, Fedor Holz, Dan Cates (Jungleman), Tom "Durrrr" Dwan, Phil Hellmuth, Phil Ivey, and Daniel Negreanu. - Ігри
Nouri : Bets $5,500
Doug : I don't love this bet size, I'd prefer something more like 5 and a half k or 6k.
Nouri : Am I a joke to you
Yeah kinda odd statement…
Hi guys Doug polk here. Today i'm going to analyse some hands. Don't limp open pre. Now were onto the flop, i don't mind checking, calling, raising or folding here. Throw a dice and make a decision based of that.
Now we called the flop we gotta call the turn, we also have blockers too 156 different combinations of cards our opponent could have. However i like mixing in a check raise here every now and then.
Now the river. Ship it regardless of what comes out, you probably block something somehow. scream FOLDDDDDD. That's it for todays polker hands analyse.
lolol
i cried^^
Best comment I've seen on a poker video in...well.....forever
Stanime 306 LEGEND
Lmao
When someone tells you they don't have much left it usually means they have a good hand. 2nd Antonio making that deal is in the spirit of poker. Talking advantage of suckers. like someone offering poker lessons for $1000.
educa-p0ker Joins Team Upswing: bit.ly/cg-mastery
Could that be considered angling the rec player?
Did you consider looking at Joey's latest videos to find more NL tourney coaches? Some of the guys he documents have ITM% of 90%! Best players in the world!
LMAO, old fishie guy with silver hair check-raising two people after limp-calling pre-flop. It's time to run away as FAST AS YOU CAN. I would not even feel comfortable here with 99 or 77.
With 99 or 77 you have way more equity though at least. A single pair here though is an insta-fold.
If you want to be mad at anyone be mad at Bill for throwing it out there when he wasn’t even in the hand
Zeke Bones I agree if ur not involved in the hand u really shouldn't say anything plus I don't even think Antonio thought about insurance, he just said run it once so....
Yeah dude should of kept him big mouth shut
He was trying to do the guy a favor that was in the spirit of the game, can't hold ill will against him for that...
Perkins and Antonio are close friends, I guarantee Antonio had no issue with Perkins trying to screw him out of 10k.
Perkins is a super nice dude and is definitely just trying to liven up the game and give the rec some insurance. Notice how he's flabbergasted when Nouri takes Antonio's shitty deal, when Perkins himself is offering an insurance deal that broadly lines up with Antonio's equity.
12:09 It was Bill Perkins who jumped into the mix while not even in the hand and brought up the idea of paying out equity, it wasn't like Antonio brought it up first or was even pushing for it, why not call out Perkins, at least a little bit here?
YolkyPalky because Antonio is known for these kind of things (taking advantage of less “experienced/professional” players. Plus Perkins did it for the other guy, and he said he would do it for 6k and screamed nooooo when he was going to pay Antonio 10k, he was trying to save the guy money.
Agreed. I don't get why some players feel the need to interfere with pots they are not in.
Yeah perkins has always been a bit of a loud mouth
he would have saved him 4k! he knew guy didn't have real idea of equity-I disagree with you.
@@tippy1951 I think Yolky is just pointing out that the idea of chopping equity wasn't even being considered until he chimed in. Was only running once, and playing the hindsight game, would have taken down the whole pot, instead of ultimately overpaying Antonio. Unless you're witnessing something shady, you should never get involved in a hand that you have no part of.
“Angling by Antonio” now available on Kindle for $9.99
100% and it's the second Polk vid where Antonio angles. the one vs Perkins is even more blatant. is Doug going to call him out on this? Here did here (a bit) but not in the spot vs Perkins. Doug DESTROYED Alec Torelli over a similar spot - why not call out Antonio? Also, it seems like I don;t see Antonio in the really top-reg-heavy games so much. Seems he is mostly in these high stakes rec-heavy games. Must be nice...
Why would you play in a game with the best players in the world when you can play the same stakes or more with whales? Not defending Antonio in general, but duh.
99 likes atm
Stay positive, nut not H.I.V positive
How is this an angle?? He made some negotiations with his opponent with the cards were flipped up. People do this in cash games all the time so please explain how this is an angle??
I think what most people are missing about the Perkins deal here is that it is possible that he has additional information, in this instance if he folded out a jack...he could lay an even line on insurance and be ahead because of his information advantage. It turns out based off of the graphics that he had 9-4, but at the table there is no way of knowing that.
That's where these deals can get out of hand.
Sweet video! Love Poker Hands! Could you make one video explaining the pros and cons of running once, 2x, 3x and in whitch situations to do it?
" us pros who can immediately figure out that equity" - then immediately miscalculates the equity. #SoPolk
Definitely plus EV for Antonio, and maybe he shouldn't have pushed it that hard, but it's not that outrageous. W/O card removal, he's 6.8 % (3 jacks with 44 in deck). If the graphics are right, that's worth about $5,800 of the $85,200 pot. So he got an extra $4,200. It's a significant premium, but I wouldn't characterize as theft. We all over pay for insurance. That's what keeps insurance companies in business.
**Recommends not engaging a pro in negotiations because they'll know equity better** **Proceeds to misquote the equity**
72.4% premium is high in my opinion. 36% seems fair to me. Also Doug didn't misquote the equity he adjusted down because it was possible that some of Antonios out had been folded, which he would have no way of knowing weather or not they were
Exactly, why would you factor in something you have no way of knowing is true? That's dumb. If you were to make the dumb assumption that 1 jack was folded at the table, Antonio's odds would actually be at 5.7% or less than 5k EV. If you were make the correct assumption knowing nothing and that the remaining jacks were likely to have been folded 10 out 45 times (players whole cards that are not face up on the table), you would know that there are on average 2.33 jacks remaining in the deck of the remaining 35 cards (which yields ~$5700 EV, not in Doug's quoted range)
In actuality, we know that there was no jack that was folded, so you could factor that in (though you wouldn't know this or factor it in if you were making), putting Antonio's true percentage of winning at 8.6% (around $7300 EV, giving Bill Perkins a negative EV deal haha)
What actually would be a smart play is doing what Bill Perkins did, but having actually folded a jack (or maybe even two).
Lastly, you could argue that the guy paid too high for a premium, but the fact that he turned down a competitive offer to make the deal makes this move unjustifiable.
He almost doubled his equity fool.
Without factoring in the folded dead cards it's 3 outs out of 44 unseen cards for (3/44)*85200=5809.09. From Bill Perkins's perspective it is (3/42)*85200=6085.71 so his offer of 6000 is pretty on the mark. If we factor in all the dead folded cards it's (3/34)*85200=7517.65. Not sure if it's standard practice in a situation like this for the others at the table to reveal if they folded a Jack preflop. If a player knows they folded a Jack preflop they could offer insurance at a significantly lower fee.
how does Antonio always get in these perfect high stakes line ups on TV ! Theres not 1 player that can remotely out play him
True some of these PokerGO events have had ridiculously fishy lineups.
"I take back what I've said about jack eight. I was wrong" That made my day. :) Thanks bud.
Perfect negotiating skills by Antonio imo. He knew that he had around 6% equity so he started way above that so he can drop down. If your target is 7k you don't start the negotiation at 7k...Fortunately for him the other guy accepted right away. You could argue for an angle if Antonio proposed the deal knowing that the rec would not know his equity but Perkins did so gg for him!
Equity on turn is (3/44)*$85,200 = $5,810 So that $6k offer from Perkins looks right on; offering to take the risk for $180. However, the offer was made by a player (Perkins) that knew he didn’t have a Jack, preflop so actually the math changes to (3/42)*$85,200 = $6,086 which means he is loosing $86 equity and also taking the risk. Note, if the insurance offering player had fold a single Jack preflop, then they could offer insurance at anything above (2/42)*$85,200 = $4,058.
Kevin Kane If the player that had J8s accept the offer of Perkins
What happens if the river is a brick?
@ Jonathan Alexis Urena - He gives Perkins $6K from the start, no matter what. If a J had hit, Perkins would have paid him $85,200 from his own stack, as he "insured" the pot for a $6K premium.
Nope, its Perkins who paid to Esfandiari 10k to win the pot no matter what.
In normal situation perkins wins in 93%. He paid extra 10k to win 100%.
Chris In most games it can’t be paid from the stack but otherwise yes this is the concept.
@@edwardshowden5511 you dont even know which one is perkins
Bet size: $5.5k
Doug: "I like something more like 5.5 or 6k but it's an alright size"
Me: Things that make you go hmmm...?
Yeah, not Doug's best analysis.
Doug: "I think Antonio has to fold. I'd rather call with JJ, because my opponent's bluffs are going to be QJ or KJ. I want to call with hands that don't block his bluffs."
Isn't KK the best pair hand to call since it doesn't block QJ, but does block the OESD's outs?
Deleuzer Gilles sure he tripped up on his words. But jj or qq do make more sense because they can turn the nuts. Where as KK can't
Actually neither of those hands can turn or river the nuts, unless it's running quads. Plus, JJ also blocks JT, another potential bluffing hand the opponent might have. I just think this is a spot where Doug got it wrong. I'm not being a hater, it's just his argument in this video doesn't make any sense. I suspect if we dig really deep, the ATs might have been a better call than the KK, since it has a set blocker, could improve to the nuts, and did not block any of the bluffs. JJ and QQ seem like clear folds to me with KK and AA being borderline, but probable folds against this guy.
Yeah I noticed that too. Did a double take with my ears. It happens
Deleuzer Gilles No. When you block the bluffs he’s more likely to have value. You want him to have as many bluff combos as possible when you have a bluff catcher.
Extremely instructive. I actually enjoyed the in depth thinking, maybe not by the players but certainly by Dp
Are you sure you want to bet the flop from Rodrock's position? It kind of turns the hand fairly face up polarised range of T9s, 77, 99, or TT+, with a few combos of J8s, two combos of 97s, and with the odd KJ or QJ - all very strong hands that overs don't do much good against. There are no one-card flush draws to represent or be paid off by, and there's not much else going on to incentivize continuance.
Add to that the fact that Rodrock only has an SPR of 3, he only needs two streets of value to stack off - or one if he can check-raise the flop. The only nasty turns for him are 6, 8, Jacks, and Queens - and with the Jacks and 8s blocked out the turn will brick fairly often or improve a hand behind enough of the time to give big action. Essentially, even if the flop got checked around, he could go for a probe bet/ call Esfandiari's probe bet on most turns.
As for the deal, I 100% agree - Sklansky dollars for equity is the only fair way to negotiate these kinds of situations, but even then it's rarely a good idea for most players who have no idea what their equity actually is. Personally, I would be very against negotiations like that but be much more inclined to change the number of runouts for future cards if possible: if both players agree, equity is more or less maintained (discounting variance). If not, nobody loses any more or less than they were already going to.
Educa Poker top 10 player in the world?! This maniac is top5 if not top3 with otb and linus.
Most ppl might not understand what Doug is saying but Doug as a poker player you’re videos are WORLD CLASS
Oh snap. Doug back with another Poker Hand. Thanks for the video!
Been dealing over a decade and I see this all the time and it is funny. Yet I am not a fan of it because it slows down the hands per hour and my bottom dollar on tips...but I hold my composure and just enjoy it for what it is. Entertainment whilst learning!
You didn't consider the limp-reraise option for Nouri with the AhTh. I like using that play as a bluff with an amateur image, it always makes your opponents think you have Aces.
Good advice about not taking deals from people who are better at deal making that you are. I don't think that Antonio should be faulted from offering an unfair deal. First of all, he suggested a round number and may not have instantly calculated the numbers in his head. But even if he did, think about what you are doing when you try to win at poker. You are trying to get your opponent to pay more than his hand is worth! The entire point of the game is to get the other player to take an unfair deal where he gives you more money that he would if he knew (and cared about) his exact equity. This situation was a verbal deal, which is not usual, but when the amateur had the nuts he did exactly the same thing by making an $18000 bet.
Hey Doug! A little mistake @5.53 its actually called Backdoor Bangkok
It's pretty simple to calculate your odds in a case like this. 3 jack the only 3 outs. 8 cards out of deck leaves 44 behind. 3/44 is a little over 6%.
I dont think its fair for you to critize Antonio for making this deal. Two grown men offered terms and accetped, because antonio was a winner in the deal, he should not be criticized. Your ethical bubble should not dictate other peoples credibility.
i think its fair for him too. while youre right that two grown men made a deal and thats fine, doug is saying that antonio has a much better understanding of whats going on and knows hes getting a way better deal than he should be. antonio is smart enough to where he would still take the deal if it was 5k, 6k, etc.. so he has the ethical option to not take advantage of an amateur whos playing for fun. i dont think antonio is a bad guy for it.. but dougs advice is good that you shouldnt strike deals in this mans shoes.
antonio the master angler/fandangler gets over on the recs...
Years ago they used to do rebates like that to get back some of their equity. It was a hassle. ppl getting the wrong price etc. Thats why ppl just run it 2x 3x etc.
Where can I find this entire game? I know a gentleman at the table and would like to watch this match.....
Hi, i m thinking to buy educa-poker course, but i look into his highstakesdb results and it seems that from januar 2016 up to now he broke even. can you show as his graf of bb won for 2016 and also for 2017 year
I love Antonio and his skill set. He did take advantage of a recreational player but if that guy doesn't know what he's getting into when by sitting down with pros, that's his mistake.
i dont agree.. what antonio did was super fine, nothing wrong with it
Define "wrong."
from a moral aspect.. the guy is most likely a very wealthy businessman and he probably doesn't care.. also its not like antonio forced him or anything, he just made an offer
Exactly ! Offering Deals that are plus ev for you is what poker is all about. You can't win money in poker without exploiting your opponents bad plays.
$6k would have been more fair.
Yes, if you play against better players, you lose money one way or another. Even if you play against equal players because the casino gets a part. It's not like your doctor is suggesting you unnecessary services, that would be wrong.
Doug! Please do Poker Hands of some hands on "The Grand"- perhaps the greatest poker movie ever made. I'd love to see some analysis
10 card stud flips had me crackin up
My thinking is the casual player might not be buying back in if he felts. So, paying a little extra to ensure you don't get runner runner'd might be worth it.
Doug...why have you overlooked the fact that Bill Perkins spoke up in a pot he wasn't involved in... what the fuck is that about? People should NOT be doing this and I see this shit happen a lot in these games.... is it acceptable behavior now?!
Yaseen Chopra agree man...Perkins did the deal and Antonio jumped on the wagon! Still don’t agree that Antonio was wrong here and I’d have to assume (HAVE TO RIGHT??) that the dude does know the simple 3 Jacks x 2 on river = roughly accurate equity ;-)
10k is actually a pretty good deal. It is a mistake to think that 6k (the expected loss for Rodrock) is the right price to pay. If rodrock were risk neutral he’d be indifferent to taking a deal of 6k and playing out the hand. But the fact that he is eager to buy insurance from esfandiari implies he is risk averse. He is willing to pay a risk premium for that. Forgetting risk aversion for a second, if he wanted to maximize the expected growth rate of his bank roll, it’s conceivable he’d be willing to pay Esfandiari 8-10k. Depends on his bank roll though
I mean the man was literally offered 6k but declined because he didn't understand the concept of insurance and just wanted the pot now. Sometimes you have to just make the deals with the idiots, it's no worse than deciding to join a table because you know there are fish on it.
agreed 100%. Antonio didn't force or even pressure the other guy into anything at all. He offered a bad deal and it got accepted. If 2 people make an agreement, even when it objectively favours one side, there is nothing ethically wrong with it.
The 7% figure shown at the end does _not_ include the mucked cards. It is the rounded figure. The actual figure hovers just above 6.8%. I don't know why Doug would think otherwise. Most shows do not include the dead cards when showing the win % for the hands.
checkmugged yeah, I'm a bit disappointed in Doug here
I was expecting them to discuss a deal then decide against it, only for Antonio to typically get there with the J.
doug i want to ask you if you think its possible that sites such as ACR, IGNITION and other US sites could be running crypto mining in the background while users have open the software?
the reason i ask is because i know that some non legal streaming sites mine crypto in the background while users watch movies and i thought why wouldn't a poker site do this as well?
A Doug Polk vid during the work day. Yes!
Every vid of Antonio he's always doing that "pump fake" with the chips in his hands. Needs to be called out.
Nathaniel Morgan I agree. That's a BS move
Was on high stakes poker, cant recall the season and episode. But it wasnt a pro, was an amateur erik rolex boneta that called him out for his angles.
Sorry, what time is this at, don;t feel like rewatching to look for it lol
where ?
It is never an angle when you hear verbatim a decision he has NOT made. Go play more poker kid.
I think my fav hand is not str or royal or even ..well, AAJ - JA is pretty nice, or 4444, the best 4 OAK. But when 567 comes up, you got 89, then the turn is a 4. Such a sick hand.
Anyone else Fast forward anytime Doug's little box pops up?
BTW you are going to crush it if a live cash game course is created.Especially plo live low stakes where nobody folds pre.
Darol is from KC. Sat behind him watching him in PLO, his wife said he profited 300k at this game.
i love that Bobby Sura is still getting on televised poker shows to sit there and nit sweaters
Poker is about exploiting opponents weaknesses. If deals are allowed in these games then exploiting the opponents lack of equity knowledge is totally fair. It's poker FFS! Antonio's offer was well within the spirit of the game.
Really good poker if anything. I don't see see how exploiting your opponent's lack of experience with deals is fundamentally different from exploiting their lack of skill.
It is what it is! Once you sit down, don't plan on any friends at the table until your butt leaves that seat :)
So why do they run out the hand if, in essence, Antonio backed out for 10k? They didn't show hands before making the deal, so what if Antonio hits trips and it turns out to win, (assuming the other guy had 2 pair)?
A cheetah never changes his spots
Jeff Boski you seen the new Joe Ingram vid? Most of it is very speculative(and a little over the top imo) but the point about late reg players all getting seated together opens up the door for all kinds of problems
poker bruh Don't play on a client that can't fix such simple issues..
Jeff Boski a cheatah
but it can roll in the mud from time to time
What I've always wanted to know is: what pokersite do you recommend?
thought that jack was coming lol
When old man coffee x/raises you...fold!
7:54 Nouri bets 5.5k into a 10.7k pot.....So Doug tells us he bets a little less then half pot and would prefer if Nouri bets something like 5.5 to 6k. Right.....
In this day and age it's not hard to whip out a phone and check your equity before getting into a negotiation. I keep an equity chart on my phone so would know I have a 6.5% of getting sucked out on. If you're another player at the table offering insurance the best time to do it is when you know you've folded their opponents outs. So you can offer something at or very close to the true equity. Knowing full well you've negotiated a highly favourable deal.
So he's saying Antonio angle shot someone at the poker table? No way....I guess next he's going to tell us that water's wet.
I feel like if you’re going to play in high-stakes game against pros, you should at least be able to calculate equities and their $ value relative to the pot.
12:49 "I'm offering less money!" Yeah but the hand isn't over if he makes the deal with you, scarfy.
How does it matter? if he gets insurance from Bill he'll get the pot regardless of outcome.
3:25 guy in the middle looks like guy on the right 20 years older.
has anybody thought to broadcast poker with the percentages shown from the players perspective without factoring in dead cards?
I don't know Rodrock. Does the old saying 'Beware of the speech' apply here or is he capable of a false tell?
Knowing equities and using it to your advantage over your opponent when the terms of the deal are clear to all parties is not in the spirit of the game of poker? Hmmm ... ok.
doug polk setting the cash-game bar. im buying!!
I hate situations like this when you’ve got a bunch of regs tryna bully a rec into doing something they’re clearly not comfortable with, then basically calling them stupid if you don’t do it.
THIS is Poker!!!! Also great editing.
The whole lot looks high. What game is this?
You need a classier opener. Have you tried, "What's up guys, Douglas Polk here?"
How are you this fine evening gentlemen, Douglas Polk here?
No that does not work, because at least 1% of his viewers are women.
Yo what's up Doug. Good stuff as always. I'm a noob... But I keep hearing you speak of inline winnings??? What games are still around that you can play real cash?? I seen you play those tourneys and what not and I'm just confused
Still waiting for the negotiation, Doug.
Fair play to Antonio for negotiating his way out- can't fault both gentlemen. They have an agreement and that's it.
antonio did exactly what the spirit of the game says
I feel there is some huge implied odds when someone is all in. Risking a brand new buy in, for like $50k is easily worth putting off while pocketing 75k for an amuater. Playing huge stakes against much better players the goal is always not to rebuy.
If that's your goal in playing poker, might be time to pick a different game. Regardless of stake sizes or competition, I'd never sit down to a poker table if my goal was Not to rebuy. If that's a main concern or goal, a change of stakes should be in consideration.
Just seems kind of counter productive to expect to win if you're playing with that mindset.
I'm fairly sure he got paid double... 20k
because he took the 10k out of his stack and not the pot... then antonio made the dealer count his stack (to be paid) AFTER he took the 10k out... so antonio paid 10k LESS on top of getting the 10k out of his stack
Pllllleeeaaassseee let me be at a table with this lineup next time i have my full bankroll on the table.
Can someone plz explain Bills deal? Was he saying that if a jack doesn’t come on river the old man would give him 6k but if the jack did come he would give the size of the pot that he got sucked out on? So he would give him like 80k if the jack came?
Please make a video on the last hand on partypoker 5000€ when isildur call down with k6! sick hand
The old man seems like a pretty chill dude. But am I the only one who cannot believe that someone so easily swayed and so seemingly unaware of what's going on around is playing against these guys for those stakes??
I just had to fast forward to the end and turn it off can't watch anymore
Doug are you only outing crypto scandals these days? Why aren't you helping Joey get the word out about ACR and the cheating scandal?
What's the ACR cheating scandal?
checkmugged watch joey ingrams videos. Serious matter for the poker community.
Doug thx for doing your latest video to make people aware of all of this.
The worst I saw was the hand between Guy Laliberte and David Benyamine at Hogh Stakes Poker. Benyamine really got lucky there because Guy did not care about the money.
Always nice when the people clearly not catching cold cards call other people tight haha.
Sounded like the old man at least kinda knew what was up. He counter offered 5k in response.
Antonio needs to win what, like around 35% of the time to break even? Sometimes relatively short stacks make moves when they have drawing equity and a small pair, or something like A8s. It's a tough fold for Antonio really
Did anyone notice he gave Antonio chips from his OWN stack? They were negotiating 10k from the pot - by giving him 10k that Antonio hasn't matched yet he actually gave Antonio 20k "from the pot" since Antonio didn't have to match it in the final tally.
I think the guy with the pink hair at the senate crypto conference was actually Justin Bonomo
I disagree with you last point Doug. Deal are a part of live games and rec players shouldn't have extra protection of even be sitting with pro players if they are bad enough to need your advice here. However, what made it a lil unethical for me is Antonio not matching Perks $6k offer and pretty much robbing him of the extra $4k there (not that he worked a better deal for himself than the equity would suggest. That in fact is an underrated skill of his in a live game). By the way did you see Bill Perkins sitting front row at the Rockets playoff game against the Warriors a couple weeks ago lol??
Not so hard to calculate your equity tho, dont need to be a "pro". Jack would save him, 3 outs. 3*2 equals 6% aprox
But of course one is already tabled face up...in V's hand.
@@pokerdev218 6% and 4% not a big difference
The real question is, what strings did Antonio pull to get invited to this lineup?
wait a minute doug, so you never tried to negotiate a chop for more than your proper equity?
J8 cmon... its deffo a top10 hand
if ure a luckbox.
It’s poker. The spirit of the game is getting as much of your opponent’s stack as you can get him to give up.
I don’t mind Antonio making the offer. The other guy can just say ‘no’, and that’s it.
Angling and seems to have prob showing his cards to the camera in many tourneys
Holy fish... Gave $10K back on a 3 outer @ 93% equity. Wtf...