How to predict goals in a football match
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- Опубліковано 21 вер 2024
- Further to another video on historical data and football, I thought we would start right at the beginning on footy to show you where you should start.
There is no such thing as a goal predictor when it comes to football matches but you can learn how to predict them.
The first place, as you will learn later, is to work out roughly how many goals you think will be scored.
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Really enjoy these videos ... the more i watch the more I realise I don't know ....
i totally agree i also get the average goals scored and conceded by the teams in that year and against that opponent to give a little more accuracy on their currently form
Excellent Peter! I use a mathematical model to calculate CS for specific games based on most recent data, and use this to see if their is value in any of the CS from my model and those being offered. Its in its infancy but has thrown up a couple of excellent value CS's, but a long term trial of the model is the goal. Teams need to settle so to speak this season and then i believe the data may be more reliable. Look forward to the follow ups.
Fantastic as always Peter. There was a comment further down, where someone asked you to provide so type of trading service I would be a member straightway!!
Hi Peter mate. I gotta tell you av just stumbled across your channel, researching for my son really. He's just signed up to Betfair and he had a gouple of win bets win and a couple of lay bets he copped on. As I'm sure you can guess!!! Yes he immediately thinks he's KING of the PUNTERS, this is bloody easy Dad I'm gonna be a millionaire, you know the way us punters are (us meaning to seperate you from the us) compared to a true Professional gambler. So I immediately told him to '' Pull his Horns'', and tried to explain to him that it looks easy but you can catch plenty of colds. At this point I should explain to you, I've been a punter and gambler all my life and have bought probably every system known to man or variations of them. Also used many tipping lines too and most tipsters couldn't tip a waiter and as another of your videos explains (this is the 3rd video of yours I've watched) there are many scams afoot. I can say though, I've considered a passion to find a way to beat the bookie, hence over the years I'd collate stats from the whole spectrum and I have to tell you that my belief, where (if ever they could possibly have) the bookies achilles heel lies is with football matches. Is why I love this video you are doing, cos I swear, I used to get the longlist saturday footy coupon every week. I did the stats for averages of each match score, I amassed maybe 3 seasons or so straight of results, I'm accepting nowhere near as your from 1878 or whichever year you stated. Anyway, by the by, although what is truely relevant is that the stats are a remarkable accurrate siimilar/identical average season upon season decade upon decade, The first stat, where the bookie scrambles on having right, I say scramble cos they adopted it basically from THE POOLS which is the 1-1 draw averaged the best of an average of just about or over 7 a week and 8 score draws was the magic pools jackpot and hence the POOlS Firms gaining their edge of just under one score draw. My list in order ish of scores went 1-1 then home wins 1-0, then 2-1 then 2-0 and then 0-0 I believe. Obviously the away wins an identikit-ish of previously mentioned home wins. 3-3 if i recall would average between 2 and 3 i think and 3-2 0r 2-3 were an equal average. I used to love the edge we had the punter beginning with that lucky 15 bet that gave you triple odds for one winner. When your doing scores back then the shortist price would be the 1-1 at normally 11/2 and 1-0 could be as skinny as 6/1 and 2-0 could go low as 13/2 but not predictably often. Cut long story short, if Cheltenham is the ''Punters Graveyard''. Well the footy score odds combined with you lucky 15 triple odds one winner was the ''Punters' Paradise''. Right, sorry about all that flim flam but I guess my ego got better of me there. So what it is you seem, a real genuine honest man and I told my son before he runs, learn to walk. I went on to tell him, if you master the art, cos is an art, the art of not being a gambler and being disciplined then you can be a success at edging and arbing . One problem is son, I told him. we (again Peter we as in punters and not yourself) all think we can do it, be disciplined, but we can't, av to take the gambers stance at some stage, cos we're gamblers. He says he gets it. I told him he has to watch your videos, study one of your methods to the point of A plus as if it was an exam grade. Then, once he knows it like the alphabet backwards, to then go online and play and to not deviate in any which way, but to ply it religously as is explained, i went on to ad lib IT AINT BROKE SO DON'T NEED FIXING. I've also told him, that this fella (your good self) talks to you and not AT or DOWN to you, which, in my view makes him a very good teacher and you (my son) is to look at you (your good self) as HIS MENTOR. In ending this script of 'War and Peace' to you Peter the angel. I'd to afford you that compliment, as is another art I guess you have mastered the art of talking/teaching without being condescending and I believe (I consider myself a good judge of character) you're genuine and really would like to help people improve their gambling techniques. Lets face it though Peter most gamblers cant spell technique let alone apply it lol. Please if you wish to reply my email address is princebolanoasis@gmail.com thanks mate for taking time out to read this
Peter Pender nice post. Someone is a good dad....
very informative video. what I would like to see videos on are goal distribution over time and also the optimal times to cash out when a match is going against you
There is some great data on the forum you can download to analyse this.
thoroughly enjoy all of your videos Peter ...thank you and look forward to the next instalment
Thank you Peter, very helpful. Looking forward to next video.
You can not totally rely on the complete past history between two teams as you also have to take into consideration personnel changes. Recent history in the last 2 years is relevant and it is also worth looking at teams current form against similar teams . If you are looking at Man U V Man City it is worth looking to see who they have played recently and if they have both played the same team. Say if both have played a team in the top 5 and then the bottom half and look at the scores to gauge their current form. Another factor that was not mentioned is injured players. Are the key players in the starting line up and are they in form scoring goals.
That fascinated me concerning the most common score being 1-1. I remember doing the pools and you had to get the score draws. Out of 60-70 games on the coupon it was still difficult to get the draws otherwise they wouldn't do the pools if it was easy to predict the draws . I currently have a betting strategy laying the draws under certain market conditions and out of 390 games 95 were draws and 44 ere 1-1. Next highest is 32 0-0. Currently considering revising strategy and laying the draw backing 1-1. Interesting stuff though....
Two draws this afternoon 4/12/18 what was the score ? 1-1.
Well explained and very helpful for a newbie like me
Great video Peter. With the second graph I'm not clear how you are calculating your percentages for each field. Is it, for example for 2-1, an average of the likelyhood of 2 goals scored by the home side and the likelyhood of 1 goal scored by the away side?
If you're doing more of these, a video on forecasting time of goals, especially time of the first goal, would be great. Thanks for this!
I'll see if I can follow up on a future video.
Thanks for great value,Peter!
Given me some ideas for trading goals both correct score and over/under's markets
Cheers Peter
Very intresting, more of these please.
interesting Peter, but would you not say that 100 years ago there used to be many more goals per game (6-2, 5-4 etc) and this would have given you a different chart thanif you'd only plotted games from say 1970 onwards, for example?
Peter, have you considered setting up a tipping service for betfair exchange only? Maybe a combination of back/lay trading mixed with regular backing. The issue of bookmakers restricting & closing accounts, usually on little more than a few wins in a row, seems to be getting more & more common.
The market is pretty efficient so tipping is quite a marginal thing, but often works based on how variable the market is. Trading is pretty instant though, so not sure how that would fit into things.
Thanks Peter - really interesting and "de mything" all the nonsense and exaggeration about score predictions. Very useful analysis, even way back a hundred years +!! It would be useful to see what you take from this into action - i.e. do you tend to set a position on the under's pre start or wait and determine how the match is going? What about automation in BA for football, what do you recommend? Cheers
You tend to forecast and then when the match is underway look for deviations to forecast to see if the market is miss-pricing it.
Thanks so much! Looking forward to the next chapters :)
Great video as always Peter. Can I ask what tool(s) you use to do your comparisons and calculations on your database?
Just good old fashioned Excel, Access and a little bit of basic coding for some mass number crunching.
Relaxing to just listen to you talking.
Thank you
Thank you peter, Great video. time for me to do some homework on this.
Thank you Peter very impressive video.
That’s an awful lot of historical data, way back to 1899. The one thing that sticks out from all your videos etc is your dedication and your meticulous approach. I think it’s forgotten sometimes and people just want a do I back or lay at whatever point answer. My question is, A - did you enjoy that half of football (you didn’t actually say) And B - how did you go about collecting and plotting such vast amounts of data? It’s this that seems one of the biggest mysteries to me. Another great video though 👍
Yeah its amazing how few goals there are compared with how many there seems to be, the BTS stats are very interesting, always around 50/50 although you would think it would be much more weighted to both teams scoring.
I think I may have come up with a calculation on BTS at some point. I would imagine it's quite high as the market regulary discounts goals 1.5 to 1.1 or thereabouts.
@@betangeltv across the board all leagues and competitions I reckon BTS Yes is about 53% correct me if Im wrong
Great video thank you
I'm currently trying out the 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 CS markets and laying U3.5 goals but was never sure what games to try on?
Again very informative video 👍
more of these please
Nice explanation Peter.
I usually do 1.5 match goals on 20 games. It pays more than 100/1. Only won it about once a year lol.
Peter do you know a quick way to find 20 games that will end more than 2 goals
I can give you some information in a new video. We are looking to build more stuff into the software to help you with things like this.
@@betangeltv that would be great mate.
1.5 goal accumulators can be a bit frustrating. There is always 1 or 2 games that ruin the accumulator.
great video,,thanks peter
@BetAngel do you consider league average, and home /defensive strength when calculating expected goals.
No, just purely focused on the teams relative strengths and weaknesses.
i think nobody is as good in euro football as domestic ... it is a mess ! :) great interesting graphs btw Thanks, hope keep them coming
There seems to be a bit miss-match if European competition. I suspect a super league will eventually be created.
Thank you for this :) interested to learn more.
Many thanks.
Fascinating video - very good quality content, thank you very much. Looking forward to the follow-up with baited breath.
Do you also have data for goal times? I.e. would you be able to say that, when the result in a match is 1-1, the first goal will on average be scored during minutes 40 to 50 (for e.g.)?
www.soccerstats.com/ enjoy! all that on here for specific teams
That is more or less correct (on average)
If you add up the values in column 1 it comes to 32.24 not 33.83??
Fascinating as always. I'd be interested to know if you've ever done any analysis on how accurate Betfair's exchange SP odds are of an event actually occurring. In short, just how Wise is the Betfair Crowd?
Irrelevant.
Generally, the crowd is accurate but there are some common themes that run through the markets, mainly psychological that create odd distortions in the market. When trading you are selling volatility., so accurate pricing doesn't typically feature in that, though it can play a part. But by and large the market is pretty efficient.
Thanks Peter. Although, I wasn't approaching this from a trading perspective. Stats like you've presented in this video are the lifeblood of dutching strategies which can also be very profitable. I think it would be useful for people out there to see how you would make use of such stats in BetAngel's dutching facility. Cheers.
Awesome video Peter. It is a never ending process trying to refine a model, too many variables and of course lady luck to perfect it, but it sure is fun trying!
Could you please do a video on in-play stats?
If you were to collate goal information from premier league teams would you need 100 games of stats per team to get a decent average or could you do it with less? Great video BTW
Brilliant video...
Really interesting stuff Peter. Out of interest, based on historical results, are confident enough in your model, that if nothing else existed (Betangel, horse trading etc), you could make a full time living solely from Football betting / trading?
I couldn't really live without Bet Angel, no just saying that but executing quickly and confidently improves my ability to profit. I often trade racing and football at the same time so that would be hard without all the tools. There are some processes though that would work at a really basic level, but difficult to scale them massively without tools and speeding things up.
Thanks for the reply Peter. My apologies, when I said 'Betangel' I was meaning more from the business side, rather than the tool itself. Just to clarify, I just was wondering if whether you feel you could make living solely from trading Football (based on your model)? I use Betangel myself and completely agree that the features of the tool make things a lot quicker and easier. From a trading point of view, I couldn't live without it!
There are a number of people that make money just from football and nothing else. I started on Football but migrated to racing due to the availability of markets to trade. I think people feel more in touch with football and have an opinion on it, but that's harder with racing. So I think that's why people feel that are more likely to have an edge in footy.
At 8:14... unless you're talking about Crystal Palace and Zaha not playing.
Very interesting, I am interested in trying to build a database stats model around Premier League games that finish Exactly 2 or 3 Goals. The bookmakers offer 2.0 on this occurring but if I can work out the goal expectancy/ frequency.
If you like to contribute your thoughts great, trying to implement this as a betting strategy lets hope it may take off!!!
great info,thanks
Given how football has evolved over the years, would historical data from way back be useful? - you explain this in another vid haha. I still thinks it's apples and pears a bit though 😁
Only 3 years late but hey Peter! Do you ever take weather conditions into account when predicting the total number of goals in a match? I seem to recall a lot of dreary drab games on Monday nights in deep mid-winter in the swirling rain and howling wind, cold and miserable. I wonder if under 2.5 goals would be profitable long term under those conditions?
Weather is bound to have an affect on some matches, but it can be quite subtle. When I looked at this it was more dominant many years ago. Modern pitches and stadiums makes the influence less prominent.
Do you use your analysis to trade correct score markets or number of goals (like under/over 2.5)?
A lot of information comes out of the ratings, which I will cover as we move forward
Also, when you are trading on football, do you watch each game that you trade on? I would find it difficult to trade on games I'm not watching - I like to get a feel for the tempo and mentality of the teams.
Y, I tend to focus on one game if I am going to use decent stakes. There are a number of things you can do without watching, but getting a feel for how the stats were created is useful. I tend to watch with the commentary off!
Great video Peter. Reassuring to know I am doing very similar things to you in my research.In your dataset of games from 1888, I wondered if you noticed a difference in goals when 3 points for a win was introduced? I would have thought that would provide an increased incentive to score.
I think I may have researched that at some point. The fact I can't remember the conclusion probably means it didn't have that much impact. I've broken down goal scoring by decade etc. Not a great deal of difference. Skill levels rise and fall in unison.
Thanks Peter
Can you do videos every weekend of bets you would do for the weekend
can you share the code of prediction
Haven't bookmakers essentially done all this analysis for you as reflected in the odds they offer? Naturally they'd probably be somewhat skewed, but I imagine they should still give some relative indication e.g. if the odds of 2-1 was say 4.0 and the odds of 3-0 was 9.0 then you know that 2-1 should be much more likely!?
the channel is focused on betting/trading the betting exchanges(like betfair), not traditional bookies
Hello Peter. Thanks for the vid. Have you got any data on 2UP?
2UP?
Thank you, Peter, very informative again, like your videos, never thought about the 1-1 scoreline :-)
Peter can you guide me where i can find the weekly ratings on your blog ?
www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=9588&start=310
thank you very much for the reply :)
When you say "in football" are you collecting data from every single match world-wide including friendlies or is the data used in the graph for a certain league?
This particular data is English domestic footy. But I have data for other leagues as well. I tend to focus on domestic footy.
Hello, I am also interested as to where you got the data over the years from...? Thanks
I've just collected in from many sources over many years.
you are verry clever , this is so usful !
I love your channel peter, I am new at trading and still can't get my head around some aspects of trading but I have just made a few good trades, the best return being in the super bowl at half time I layed the the eagles who had taken a shock lead in the game and then cashed out as soon as the patriots scored in the second half, not a huge profit but it was just more a practice but it worked.
Hi Peter
Is that data you collected, across all leagues, so all games that were ever played in England?
Without looking I'm pretty sure this video is related to English games, but I collect data from all leagues
Good video but don't the bookies have this covered? If 0-0 is 7-8% occurence then you need odds of better than 12/1 to get any value in the market. You will see this but only where a strong side is playing a weaker one.
Likewise 1-1 is a common score (11-12%) then typically this is offered at 7/1 to 10/1 depending on the teams so really no value in this bet and the under 2.5s odds are poor as well.
Not as simple as that as you need to take account of individuals teams and their corresponding ability against others.
@15:01 lol
You'll know all about that now after the Leicester 0-9.... Sorry.... Everyone has to go through this at some point.
Any chance of a video about how to predict draws?
There is already one on the channel.
I have a formula/criteria for finding a draw but it takes alot of time to find one and some days I find none but I'm 100% confident in it when I do
Premiership is chalking goals off for fun.
studying your chart it seems more likely that 6 or more goals in a game is more likely than a 0-0 result, surprising.
am from Nigeria. please I want to know more on how to win game
Greetings, plenty of videos on this channel that should help. But don't trade with money you can't afford to lose.
Hi Peter, where have you got your data dating back to 1889 from?
your grandma
I do not believe that statistics from that far will help you. Think about what was football like at that time. Ball, amateur players, etc. Better to focus on more early stats...
It's interesting to see how it's changed over time.
Ancestry.com?
I've just gathered it up over many years, picking up bits here and there.
Is it possible team gets booked?
Red cards will have an impact on price.
3:40 matches are played by players on the pitch, if you compare statistical data from years earlier , the only info that the players on the pitch know is that the manager told them they beat this very team 7 times on this field last 10 years. thats all the statistical( historical) you have going into this match, and i can assure you they wont think of that when they touch the ball and shoot
10x a lot
Great video with a lot of useful tips however i cant understand why you are giving away your hard earned secrets and diluting the edge you have!
I can go into incredible depth on things, but this video isn't designed to be that. I think that's fairly obvious.
I don't think he is diluting his edge at all. Peter quite rightly has stated many times that "free stuff" is limited and I can imagine he has many, many edges that he keeps to himself and quite rightly so.!
That's right, there is so much I could talk about, every time you look at a strategy you can go anther level deeper. It's amazing some of the levels you can reach, but a lot of them, TBH, don't deliver massive changes in performance. But, of course, if you are using massive sums of money every 1/10th % is worth a lot. So that's why I pursue them.
In the last 5 years of premiership, the percentage of 1-1 is down to around 9.95% i think :) Please dont tell me my spreadsheet i wrong, i might cry lol
1888!! Is it even relevant?
Hey Peter this comment isn't about trading, I have seen pretty much all of your videos and this one you look pretty rough lol😜. Take a day off and play some golf you deserve it.
Didn't want to say...but... agree...you look a bit tired!
It's funny because I thought the same thing when I played it back. I felt fine, but just didn't look it, it seems.
Pete you are a star ( not the porn movie one 😆
Not yet at least 😉
Spelling Peter! Forecast.
thnaks
Hippy to halp!
Can you make a living of betting?
I have but nobody really believes it and too many people just copy stuff I do to sell things to gullible people who want to get a shortcut to learning.
no offence but I feel like I just wasted 19 minutes of my life
Watch this weeks video, which is about the same subject
1888!! Is it even relevant?
Not really, but it's interesting to complete the data set and compare the modern game with historic results.