The time of the first goal is relatively easy to predict. On statistical average it will be approximately 45 seconds after I placed a lay bet. England matches are always more profitable. The price says they will score. We all know they will. Eventually. Maybe not this match but eventually.
Great stuff Peter - I'm just starting modelling efforts. All my stats came up with Wolves vs Derby and Pescara vs. Empoli as among last weekend's lowest scoring matches - the first finished 2-3, the second 0-4!
Then when you are looking for a goal to be scored to win a trade you get 0-0. Even with an odds on fav and the market prices predicting lots of goals. Then when you don't want a goal they score in the 1st minute West Brom did at home against Man U in the 20/21 season. Its always interesting to accumulate knowledge and experience.
Peter; isn´t an expected distribution of 2 goals something like minute 30 and minute 60? In other words, the first goal should be expected in minute 30, not minute 45. Otherwise with this formula and an average of 1 goal per match, it will be expected in the 90/1= 90 (last) minute in the match....
"In the five [Premier League] seasons between 2016-17 and 2020-21, the average time for the first goal to be scored was 30 minutes and 57 seconds into the match."
Peter, do you have an advice to calculate the probability of a goal based on the avi goal scored by the teams and considering the time left? For example with a match with 2.98 xg finishing 0-0 at HT how change the probability of one or more goals?
My models, generally, discount the number of goals by time left in the match. So for the second half, I'd budget 48 minutes. But obviously, that number can rise and fall depending on what is going on in the match. But also, what happens in the first half can change the nature of what happens in the second half.
Generally speaking yes, but some of that is due to added time which is always longer than in the first half. Also you have an increased incentive to take risks given an earlier score.
Surely the time of the first goal would be 95/3.3 which is about 29 minutes otherwise you're implying that the 'last 0.3' of the goal will be scored at the last kick of the game rather than being evenly distributed across the match.
No, that's the average time so it will have a wide deviation in either direction. It could be not at all, 90+ mins or much earlier but less chance of either. It's a bell curve.
So if there are two goals in a match and the average time of the first goal is 45 mins then the average time of the second goal is...? How can you have an even goal distribution with the first goal occurring so late? It doesn't make any logical sense. Or how about if the average number of goals is just one. How would you then come up with an average goal time?
The video is very clear about the pluses and minuses, the distribution of goals, the influence of one goal on another and all those factors. I really don't understand at all what your point is, there is no massive cock up here. The video is very very clear. I have a model that is really accurate, but the point of the video was to give a generalisation on the subject of when a goal is more likely to be scored. I linked to a normal distribution because it looked to me that you didn't understand the concept of a mean time of arrival. It's very relevant.
hi peter. i am from australia. also i am very beginner. i wanted to know if i can use bet angel software here in australia? i mean is it possible to take out prediction from bet angel, so i can use here?
I strongly believe that football is not math. I appreciate your work but for the first time i think something different. What about man city, monaco...etc( just today )
The reason that it's unlikely to work, is that is trying to predict it. You can get many goals in a match as the goal keeper could be crap during the match. Or you can have goalless matches.
+betangeltv you could be correct. I just think football matches, to try to predict goals, not easy and very random. It could be a bit like day trading stocks and there is only around 90mins in a match.
betangeltv what do you mean? I think its probably easy for you, but there are so many people that have traded football matches and don't make money. I suppose, I am not doubting your systems or methods, but can't see it being fit for everyone.
It's an uneducated comment. Many, many traders including Peter and myself profit from football. More traders will say avoid racing than football! Not getting into any more dialogue said my bit!
The time of the first goal is relatively easy to predict. On statistical average it will be approximately 45 seconds after I placed a lay bet.
England matches are always more profitable. The price says they will score. We all know they will. Eventually. Maybe not this match but eventually.
Great stuff Peter - I'm just starting modelling efforts. All my stats came up with Wolves vs Derby and Pescara vs. Empoli as among last weekend's lowest scoring matches - the first finished 2-3, the second 0-4!
Footy is very variable
ffs Peter, I'd left my speakers turned up and that unexpected "GOOOOAAAAALLLLLLLL!" nearly gave me a flamin' heart attack :)
did make me smile
Then when you are looking for a goal to be scored to win a trade you get 0-0. Even with an odds on fav and the market prices predicting lots of goals. Then when you don't want a goal they score in the 1st minute West Brom did at home against Man U in the 20/21 season. Its always interesting to accumulate knowledge and experience.
Great stuff, thank you for answering my question from the previous video. :o) This will help me a great deal.
Peter; isn´t an expected distribution of 2 goals something like minute 30 and minute 60?
In other words, the first goal should be expected in minute 30, not minute 45.
Otherwise with this formula and an average of 1 goal per match, it will be expected in the 90/1= 90 (last) minute in the match....
Average number of goals is around 2.60 and that delivers the first goal around 30mins including a 0-0 FT
Brilliant stuff as usual Peter, thanks for the info!
"In the five [Premier League] seasons between 2016-17 and 2020-21, the average time for the first goal to be scored was 30 minutes and 57 seconds into the match."
Peter another great video. The formula you say is too complicated to run through are you going to make this a video ?
Peter, do you have an advice to calculate the probability of a goal based on the avi goal scored by the teams and considering the time left? For example with a match with 2.98 xg finishing 0-0 at HT how change the probability of one or more goals?
My models, generally, discount the number of goals by time left in the match. So for the second half, I'd budget 48 minutes. But obviously, that number can rise and fall depending on what is going on in the match. But also, what happens in the first half can change the nature of what happens in the second half.
Thx Peter 🙏
how did you stop yourself laughing when u said not quite as good as england?
Have you ever traded under 0.5 goals, I find it a good market pre kick off.
Assume the opposition strengths/weaknesses relating to scoring/defending need factoring in
Excellent content......Am I right about there being more goals scored in the second half of matches on average?
Generally speaking yes, but some of that is due to added time which is always longer than in the first half. Also you have an increased incentive to take risks given an earlier score.
Surely the time of the first goal would be 95/3.3 which is about 29 minutes otherwise you're implying that the 'last 0.3' of the goal will be scored at the last kick of the game rather than being evenly distributed across the match.
Heck, even with the two goal example you're basically saying that the first goal will be scored at 45 mins and the second goal at 90?!
No, that's the average time so it will have a wide deviation in either direction. It could be not at all, 90+ mins or much earlier but less chance of either. It's a bell curve.
So if there are two goals in a match and the average time of the first goal is 45 mins then the average time of the second goal is...? How can you have an even goal distribution with the first goal occurring so late? It doesn't make any logical sense.
Or how about if the average number of goals is just one. How would you then come up with an average goal time?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
The video is very clear about the pluses and minuses, the distribution of goals, the influence of one goal on another and all those factors. I really don't understand at all what your point is, there is no massive cock up here. The video is very very clear. I have a model that is really accurate, but the point of the video was to give a generalisation on the subject of when a goal is more likely to be scored. I linked to a normal distribution because it looked to me that you didn't understand the concept of a mean time of arrival. It's very relevant.
hi peter. i am from australia. also i am very beginner. i wanted to know if i can use bet angel software here in australia? i mean is it possible to take out prediction from bet angel, so i can use here?
You can use Bet Angel in Austrailia, though they do restrict inplay betting on some sports.
All sports apart from Horse racing. Nanny State.
I strongly believe that football is not math. I appreciate your work but for the first time i think something different. What about man city, monaco...etc( just today )
Curious, does this work for Southampton?
And then Lallana scores in 7 mins!
The reason that it's unlikely to work, is that is trying to predict it. You can get many goals in a match as the goal keeper could be crap during the match. Or you can have goalless matches.
It all averages out over the course of a season
+betangeltv you could be correct. I just think football matches, to try to predict goals, not easy and very random. It could be a bit like day trading stocks and there is only around 90mins in a match.
oh and also...it may average out in goals over season. so does that mean you would need to monitor most matches through a season..wow. no thanks.
So why not exploit that?
betangeltv what do you mean? I think its probably easy for you, but there are so many people that have traded football matches and don't make money. I suppose, I am not doubting your systems or methods, but can't see it being fit for everyone.
If only if it was that easy
Anybody who bets on football are bonkers! Stay clear. The only way to make money on Betfair/Betangel is horse racing!!
Just a daft comment.
No, intelligent!!
It's an uneducated comment. Many, many traders including Peter and myself profit from football. More traders will say avoid racing than football! Not getting into any more dialogue said my bit!
TF!!
Have you ever traded under 0.5 goals, I find it a good market pre kick off.
I haven't TBH, maybe I should have a look.