What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast
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- Опубліковано 11 жов 2024
- The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.
As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber.
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I live in NC (Raleigh-ish). I just got an email they are (finally) mailing my ballot.
You're lucky The Party hasn't banned your ability to vote yet, along with all the "scawey" books!
So the answer to "what does early voting data reveal?" is absolutely not a damn thing.
Saved you three minutes.
Ty so much
No, he said "minimal at best." How the heck you get "absolutely not a damn thing" out of "minimal"?
You need to pay attention more if you care at all about reality and accuracy. (You're allowed to not care, by the way.)
@@totheknee The only thing more useless than the information provided in this video is your reply.
We need complete access to early voting for at least Oct. 1-Nov. 5 everywhere. A major step to people getting more intelligent and enthusiastic in the voting process. Still there is so much effort on one of the Party's side (Republicans) to block voting in particular for voters that are not Republican. In WI where I live we had voting Statewide for at least 4 weeks before the election. Four years ago the Republicans in WI decided that Republican areas in WI did not have as much access to early voting so they decided to block it in all areas of WI. In my point of view it would have been best to work on enhancing early voting for all areas in WI where it is more difficult to vote early.
Why an entire month to vote? To me, two weeks is more reasonable.
@@Dean-oh4pi. Because you Americans have elections on Tuesday and not many polling stations. What have you got against 4 weeks. Is it 4 weeks in every state.
Can you do a postal vote in Wisconsin.
@@johnmartin7158yes, I get my ballots by mail. I need to contact my town hall in the new year, to set it up. Then I can send it in, but I drop mine off at my town hall.
One day voting is enough. I voted for Trump early in north Virginia because it was available, but I’m happy with same day voting with ID.
I remember when experts looked like a g man for the gov. Now they look like they are about to role a joint, not complaining just a thing I noticed
I was trying to find a list of the most accurate polling and I found the list at 538 put out. What’s really strange about it is most of the polls they use aren’t even on that list of accurate polls and if they are, they’re at the bottom of the list, and one of the pollsters, where would you rank in the top six, you don’t even use but polls that you rank at the bottom of the list you use on a regular basis. Make that makes sense.
They're actually arguing that real votes are less accurate than always inaccurate polls.
What a parody FiveThirtyEight has become.
Why do you think Nate Silver retired from 538 last year and why NY Times Sienna is constantly throwing out Trendless Mirage outliers for Trump?
Because 538 hasn’t successfully gotten an Election prediction correctly since the 2014 Midterms.
Polls are meant to be representative of the population. Early voters are a self-selected group.
Polls are within margin of error, as always stated. And they're arguing that real votes that come in _EARLY_ don't have much prediction of votes that come in _LATER._
The parody here is your understanding of basic math.
Early voting data > polls all day long.
I would rather analyze early voting data than polling. This is a lazy take.
Bad use of podcast
Really… bad use of data? But the news is so good!
Unless the state is counting early votea now and releasing tallies, early voting data is basically just a slightly more informed guess of the election's eventual result.
Vote 💙💙💙💙💙
I am all Vote Blue. But I am 100% certain Trump will win , or already has. Germany 1932. That's us.
Bad use of data? For shame!
Why can’t we go back to when you vote? Is private
It is private. They ask people leaving the polls, but it’s optional. The most info allowed is in which primary you voted in and if you vote or note is public. Not the actual ballet.
Voting is 100% private. You don’t have to disclose who you vote for. So im not sure why you’re asking this question.
That guy trump is so dangerous for our country. Vote 💙💙💙💙
It is better than astrology - and I've seen a few of those videos in my feed...
That was a waste of 3 minutes
Vote early vote blue 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
I’m going to wait until Election Day to
vote & I’m leaning Trump not sure if it’s going to change Harris needs to do town hall or interviews where she’s questioned on her policy flip flops among many other things
Dumpty has No policy except billionaire tax cuts & Project 2025 make him explain wtf "Concepts of a plan" means😅
I want to make a genuine answer here and I’m not trying to be rude or hostile. I apologize in advance if anything I say comes across as such.
I understand your concerns about Harris changing her policies and even sympathize with them, though I do plan to vote for her. In this case changing policy positions is, unfortunately a cynical political reality. Politicians need to cater to people and if that means changing stances on fracking, then many say “so be it”. It’s also been 5 years since her presidential campaign, which has likely given her time to develop her beliefs further. As seen in JD Vance, people can change a lot in half a decade.
Harris has begun to do more interviews lately, some of them on local media like WPR in Wisconsin, though I also agree she should do more.
Trump is mentally degrading. He, like Biden, is old and getting worse with time. He continues to spread lies and promotes ideas that harm the less fortunate. His policies are meant to benefit people like him while sounding appealing to those they aim to hurt. He claims to know nothing of Project 2025 yet has close ties to many of the people responsible for writing it. JD Vance has openly admitted his support for it. Project 2025 would be devastating for this country in so many ways, like abolishing NOAA.
I believe Trump and those around him, his advisors and allies, pose a great threat to economic recovery and the health of this country in more ways than one. I share your concerns about Harris, but I choose to believe in a vote as asking who I’d rather work for a better world under. A vote is not a marriage, nor should it be one.
Perhaps you won’t be persuaded by a UA-cam comment (and perhaps you shouldn’t), but those are my two cents.
are you maga tiis 2024 you were in 2020 and 2016
Thank you very much for your supporting Harris 🙏🙏🙏💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
The movement toward voting before election day is kinda sad. You once took an hour out of your day to "do your civic duty". I recall the ladies who passed out cookies, the banners, folks dressed up, neighbors and friends. My parents even had (horrors) election parties for both sides. Folks used calculators and checked each others figures on air!! We had lots of food, drinking, cheering, booing but in the end, "Don't forget ya'll are coming over Saturday for dinner."
There are more people now who need to vote. It makes sense to spread it out.
A lot of places, especially in Republican states like to do voter suppressions so they make it illegal for you to pass out food and water to people waiting in line. So it just makes more sense to early vote and vote by mail so that you can circumvent the Republicans trying to take away your right to vote.
The majority of voters do not get paid time off for voting.
The majority of minorities would take more than an hour to vote. Therefore risking being fired if they try to vote on a work day.
@@Armataan We managed to vote on voting day for 225 years. LOL I guess this could be an issue but I'd estimate it affects .001%
@@1ACL I guess I was bemoaning the loss of a communal activity more than the actual act of voting. I vote early quite often.
I don't take a blind bit of notice of polling, mainly because I complete polls for money and I just put in any old tripe.