Evidence That Something Bizarre Is Happening (FLORIDA CRASH Update)
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- Опубліковано 15 жов 2024
- When it comes to housing, few places are as volatile as Florida. In this unique state, you'll find the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. For instance, in Miami, from December 1996 to December 2007, home prices soared by 217%, only to then experience one of the worst crashes in economic history, falling over 50%. It would take the Florida market nearly 14 years to recover back past these 2007 highs, and now with the market continuing to soar, many are left wondering whether the same fate awaits Florida in the near future. Earlier this summer, we started seeing some concerning news, with price cuts increasing and inventory skyrocketing. Many experts online and in the real estate sector are warning that this could be the start of the next crash. Today, we examine new evidence that sheds light on these shocking figures coming out of the Sunshine State.
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The problem is that in order to have "permanent roof" with amenities like electricity, gas and water, either the tenant or the owner must somehow pay insurance and property taxes. As a result, a lot of people live in tents, at least in California, where I presently dwell. Not a single mortgage, tax, rent, or insurance. It amazes me how many folks I meet who tell me they live in their cars. This place is insane!
It's becoming more and more insane by the day. Mortgage rates have been rising steadily (already over 7%). I often wonder if I should put my extra money into the stock market and wait for a housing crash, or if I should just buy a house regardless.
Such concerns also come to me. After 50, I'm retiring early. I'm already concerned about the direction the future is taking, particularly with regard to finances and making ends meet. I'm thinking about investing in the stock market for the first time as well, but how can I accomplish so considering that the market has been in disarray for much of the year?
For my part, I can relate to that. My benefits were clear when I started working with a fiduciary financial counsellor. I would always suggest seeking expert assistance in these situations so they can guide you through bumpy markets and simply provide you with indicators and tactics for knowing when to enter and exit the market.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Finding financial advisors like Jessica Lee Horst who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
It's not just the 30% over valuation of the homes, it's also the 200% increase in insurance, 50% increase in HOA fees, and 60% increase in taxes to the new buyers. This is 100% unsustainable on all levels.
In most parts of Florida housing is 70-80% overvalued, especially by the coasts. And like you said, everyone's groceries, utilities and transportation went up 40% simultaneously in addition to the costs you mentioned. You'd have to be making 60-70% more today than you did in 2019 to afford the SAME quality of life that you had in 2019 in Florida.
@@enthused7591 thats if you assume you dont pay federal tax on your income. more like 100% more
You guys don’t want to buy a $2MM home that was $500K 2-3 year ago ?
There are so many to choose from on the MLS.
Don’t forget all the ones off the MLS.
I've lived in Fla. for the last 26 years. Our homeowners ins. went up this year, but only $300.00. Shop around. It's easy.
@@camcornish2634 Wait until they assess your roof. You'll have the rudest awakening.
Comparing FL to Hawaii and Europe is a pretty foolish argument. FL crashes big time last time and will crash again
Agree, but Florida has a huge pool of migrating retirees who relocate and have fixed incomes and want to get the best low prices to give them more $$ to spend on fun. It will be interesting to see the trend of homesteaded properties. I suspect over the next 4-5 years we will see a decrease in new homesteads and senior exemptions. This would be really damaging to the housing market in Florida.
A lot of seniors are abndoning and moving to some little town in Georgia. @michaelsd284
Its a fair comparison as both bring in outside wealth, retired people and wealthy vacation homes, coming in with big money to buy homes. Just look at the chart of retired percent of population, or second home percent, and BOOM there is your data. Not saying the market can't crash sure it can, retired people can stop coming or even move somewhere else and people's second vacation home is super fast way to flood the market with listings. Also people were working from home due to COVID but if they are called back to office then well, more homes for sale. So yeah we will see how it plays out.
Your explanations are the best! The content is great but there are others with great content. The way you speak your script is what makes your content stand out. I try to follow the other guys who read out loud and it's so hard to pay attention to a monologue but you speak to the audience and that is what makes listening to you fun and interesting. Thank you for your work!
Appreciate it man. One of the best comments I’ve received! I truly try to focus on the script, to keep it entertaining and informative. Hard to do when talking real estate or finance.
Waking up every 14th of each month to $210,000 it’s a blessing to I and my family… Big gratitude to Georgette Wong 🙌
Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can't decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
Same, I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Georgette Wong, has been an amazing experience.
Hello how do you make such monthly?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦♀️ of myself because of low finance but I still
believe in God
It can't go up forever. Everything comes to an end.
History always repeats itself👍🏽
can go up forever because they are printing more money forever
We still have many tens of millions of baby boomers that will be retiring in coming years, and they seem to LOVE Florida for whatever reasons, after they are all gone, and passed away then we got a problem in retirement hotspots especially if the next Gen, GENX decide they don't want sunny beaches but instead prefer mountains and snow, maybe Colorado, Utah, Montana, Wyoming get millions of people coming to retire and Florida wilts away, but who knows, the future is anyones guess
@@drscopeify They are now invading the Carolinas and that region THANK HEAVENS!
Florida has a long history of housing Boom and Bust cycles going back to the 1920's and then the Great Depression of the 1930's.
Bizzare. New favorite word for this guy's videos & there's no bizzare information in the content. That's bizarre.
Much of Florida's revenue comes from tourism, making south Florida Hospitality driven economy. So unless South Florida brings in a better paying industry than that of Hospitality, South Florida's that work in the Hospitality industry will no longer be able to live close enough to their jobs. So unless AI is fast tracked, prices for homes in south Florida will have to come down.
That’s what most people are not understanding. I live in Miami-Dade and I’m very lucky to make twice the median household income on my own, yet homes still aren’t reasonably affordable. I was born and raised here and my father was able to buy his house in the 80’s for twice his annual income. That same house today would be 10 times the average person’s income. Like you said the majority of jobs here are in hospitality/services, I don’t know where people think that these people are going to live. Those that say they’re gonna have to find a better job don’t realize there aren’t enough jobs available for those people.
@Ja56780 same my Dad came from Cuba in the early 60s. He had a job as a dishwasher making 3 times thr minimum wage which was 1.25 and he could purchase a home with a pool in Hialeah with a pool for 10k. This is unsustainable. Did you here what Biden just proposed?
Respectfully, You’re analysis is very narrow and short sighted
You’re simply explaining the present situation but you’re not looking into the future consequences of past behavior
The real estate market is at the peak today but what goes up comes down and the bill always comes due
America is not Europe
We don’t have the same politics or health care costs or even the scarcity of land that they have
Our national debt and appetite for “buy now pay later” has imminent consequences
A crash is imminent, it hasn’t happened yet because of the lifelines that debt has given it but we will hit a wall soon
Klarna, affirm, and other companies will crash leading Airbnb investors into panic mode and dumping their properties onto the market
And that will be how this crash happens
Follow the money. The buyers are not local. I personally don't believe the "experts". I don't think that there will be any crash.
@@gingerjones111 you’re right
Follow the money
As far as “experts “ …someone is bound to be correct in their prediction at some point
Hindsight is always 20/20
The crash is gonna happen because of INFLATION…. Been grocery shopping lately…yikes 😮
@@nickthinkpainting1978 A decrease is not a crash. For example, a 10% reduction is nothing, and it may not be the intense crash you are expecting. For example, a crash is defined as 50% drop in price with the inabiity to get a buyer otherwise. I don't believe we will ever get the crash that you are expecting.
@@gingerjones111 well I’m 68 I’ve lived through more than one.. we shall see…meanwhile groceries just went up again and insurance and taxes and on and on it goes. We shall see….
It is still way too high , compared to the wages , people make.
Florida is 8x bigger than Hawaii. Florida is approximately 139,670 sq km, while Hawaii is approximately 16,635 sq km, making Hawaii 11.91% the size of Florida. The amount of land Florida has is a lot and there is a lot of undeveloped land here. We also have a lot of builders since we have access to resources from other states. With all this land and all these builders houses will keep getting built making current homes have to drop prices to be competitive.
How can anyone convince themselves to sell their home, pay cash for a home in FL, and STILL have a higher monthly payment than they did at their old home (that had a mortgage)?
It feels like throwing 500K into a black hole.
This could be an acceptable scenario for a young person or couple, but those retirees or even the middle aged….no.
And let us not forget, FL has one of the worst job markets in the US. I’m sure pandemic buyers are already scrambling to get the few good paying jobs. Or they should be.
I can explain one such case. First, Florida has traditionally been a very affordable place to retire and is far less expensive then the NorthEast and West Coast. Most coming from those locations have very low mortgages if at all and can buy with cash and have a sizable surplus. To give you an example, the median home price in Southern California are about $1M. The bay area and around New York are probably higher. This makes a $500k home a steal plus all the cost of living things (gas, groceries, utilities, etc) are 25%-40% cheaper. I would assume most of the homes being sold in Florida lately are retirees (cash buyers) or corporate leadership (high income earners). The traditional ebb and flow of Florida population is not participating due to the reasons you sighted above.
Lifestyle, nearly the same cost as the Northeast but resort living versus a small pool and tiny clubhouse in a typical older Northeast HOA.
My friend sold his out in Seattle for $800k and moved to Alabama where he paid cash and the funny thing is the demand for Tech work is so massive in Huntsville he actually went back to work, the pay is even higher than Seattle and yet homes are way cheaper, the guy is living like a king.
Great video, I think you’re spot on. Keep up the great work 👍
Sure some homes are bought from rich parents, and inheritance but the rising number of homes, condos, and former AirBNB’s tell a different story. Also the Big conglomerates have drastically slowed home buying. Higher Taxes, drastically higher HOA fees driving older people to sell, Higher Insurance costs and therefore fewer from out of state wanting these costs. There is even growing number of manufactured homes going up for sale in land lease communities where rents have skyrocketed. There are not enough good jobs to bring enough children of wealthier parents to Florida. 2007-08-09 around the corner and I did not touch on the consumer Debt bubble and Commmercial real estate debacle.
Appreciate the respectful differences of opinion.
I’m right in the middle of you two-when you account for real inflation there already has been some serious crashes in the States, but I’m with you in that general income figure do not tell the demand story-not even close
Love this guy. The shy is always falling and the end is right around the corner. It's the RE mkt. It goes up and then it goes down - just like most mkts.
Florida is not Hawaii. I’ve lived in both for 10 years each. Hawaii is very mountainous, there is a lack of buildable land, infrastructure (water meters are so hard to get) lack of building supplies and labor. It’s also absolutely paradise compared to swampy Florida. There is really no comparison. Florida is only desirable in certain coastal towns and cities. The rest is not all that.
Florida is way too hot. Moving to Florida looks great in January when you're in Wisconsin, but the rest of the year is much nicer up North. If you want to walk out your door and feel like you're taking a shower, Florida is for you.
I lived in Florida for a while & Boston too so I've done north & south.The heat isn't the problem on the east coast it's the humidity. 90f out west where there is a lot less humidity is much nicer than 90f, or even 80f, on the east coast. That warm Florida ocean water is hard to beat though!
I live in NJ and currently the heat is just as oppressive as Fl.
@@johnlattarulo2578 For a day, here and there. Not five months. New Jersey isn't 91 every day in September.
@@billybobhammer Its more than that, The area of NJ I live in is a pigsty vs the area of FL I am looking at being pristine. How many areas of NJ will you find where the municipalities power wash the sidewalks? Zero. Florida winters can't be beat and there are plenty of indoor activities in the many resort like communities to keep you cool in the summer and again it is not exactly comfortable in the north east in the summers.
Cost of ownership is the main problem. Property taxes and insurance are out of control and consider it done.
This is exactly what’s happened in Tennessee. All out of state buyers with loads of cash
Tn is now 70% California and everyone knows it. Most buyers now skipping Tn. Atlanta is now chicago
Tampa Bay Area inventory grownup is because of new homes in developing in north part of Tampa , new homes are still being sold quickly. Right now , people has the choice to buy new homes, but once new homes are sold out, they have to go for old homes, in my opinion, it’s the best time to buy old homes, lot of negotiating space
Tampa is definitely getting a price correction as we speak due to interest rates. But I don’t see them dropping. Over the next two years rates are expected to drop slowly and that’s going to motivate buyers again.
Your theory may be accurate for the most exclusive parts of Florida, but I don't think you can apply it for the entire state.
That chart doesn't tell us what's happening with second mortgages. Of course first lien ones aren't getting refinanced in a high interest rate environment. that's why they are getting paid down. But that doesn't tell us about other outstanding higher interest rate loans, helocs, etc.
Loan to value ratio looked great in 2006 as well 😂. You must love the beach bc you are the biggest flip flopper on YT
I agree, why didn't he show 2006 to 2008 in that mortgage loan to value ratio. In 2013 everything was already over.
2007 was an economic downturn which caused people to stop retiring. As less people retired, the hotspots for them crashed, it was a retirement crisis, what places were hit the worst?? Las Vegas, big retirement spot, Arizona, big retirement spot, Florida, big retirement spot. The question is will baby boomers stop retiring now? even IF there is a crash? We will have to see. people retiring might go somewhere cheaper instead so you would see a crash in one state but a BOOM in another. The word for that is Bifurcated. You might also see high $$$ home crash but cheaper homes go UP in price, also a Bifurcated issue.
@@drscopeify Most of the baby boomers have already retired. It's not them you should be worried about, it's Gen X. The oldest one are now turning 60 and they are the new generation that went through their career without pensions, and many didn't take 401k serious enough as it was still a new thing.
He is saying that there is more room to drop now than there was then. Did you not watch the same video that I watched?
@@XennialGuy We only hit the PEAK of baby boomers retirement so there is still a long way to go, around 50% are yet to retire.
The thing is rising sea levels, the salt water intrusion comes well before Florida itself is literally under water. Lack of water and clear day floods ends it all in 30 years or less.
They have been saying that since 1950. IT HASN'T HAPPENED!
@@mackm7781 in fact it has and many communities have had to close wells and find new water sources, easy to check.
My house in Florida (according to Zillow) is valued at almost 100k more than when I bought it three years ago, and interest rates have more than doubled since. I'm just hoping it could ride out whatever market crash is coming and at least stay something above what I paid for it. Would I ever sell? Probably not, I think this could be my forever home.
For average homes to be worth even close to half a million, you need low interest rates, cheap homeowners insurance, a safe area, accessibility to public transit, not prone to major natural disasters, and an 85 K-a-year median income.
Public transit? People who pay a half million dollars for the house, have cars. They need access to roads.
the Blue Pill argument fails for Florida too. It's not even net inward migration. It's the growth of net inward migration, which is now negative. (aka more people will keep moving to Florida, but not nearly as fast) Combined with a stretched market, wildly increased support costs for insurance, maintenance, etc. - watch out!
The bubble is all over the US and Canada, worst time in history of the US to buy a home in either place
Unlike the last crash, condos where not literally falling down killing people.. this crash will be far worse than a 60% drop.. some of these homes are unsellable... Unsustainable.. sellers will just walk away .. no buyers.
A bunch of numbers, blah, blah, blah, ignoring sea level. Duh!
Can you please make a video for Texas market? 🙏🏼
In 2 weeks
Difference between 2006 bubble and now is that now we have high inflationwhich will actually go even higher after we recover from the recession which is just now beginning. Inflation will keep home prices high.
The problem with this post is that its asserting crash wont happen because we dont have the same negative drivers as last crash. But current situation is very different from 2007. Just look st the lumber price. It has tanked. Newly built homes are diacounted left and right. Im getting emails from home builders they are giving special diacounts. You need to get your head out of 2007 and look at the bigger picture.
While I have that about the US Europe cycle comparison, the US is huge and has a surplus of cheap labor. There will be smaller new houses for lower prices, already seeing this development real time. Maybe not a crash ok, but there will be a slow and steady decline in prices.
6:00 Agreed, I disagree with all of the so-called "experts". Rich people are buying from out of state and out of country. No one knows whose parents gave them a trust fund or helped pay for these homes. The source of money is not local, and that's what is skewing the numbers. Most of Miami is already Russian, Chinese, Haitian, and lots of other international buyers. I seriously don't think that there will be crash in Florida.
that's funny.. I follow both of your channels and thought you were the same people.
😂😂
Hawaii also has generations that buy homes and keep them in the family then pass them down to the next generation.
Certainly, your analysis could be spot on, considering as the US defaults on its debt, the likes black rock could purchase a vast majority of the real estate for pennies on the dollar.
The argument made in this video is silly, the rich simply will not buy a cheap little house at any price. Hawaii is not Florida that has way more listings, it is a silly argument.
If you are not selling your Florida property, who cares. Ride it out. It will definitely go up again.
Not this time
I have different opinion . Condos In Florida will collapse due to surfside and he strict rules since. But developers looking forward to that. Regarding over valuation my opinion is the income that chart is utilizing doesn’t consider the income from tech giants in California and Wall Street. moving in from Ny. Additionally 1 out of 3 people in Florida are self employed and doesn’t report all their income
Same arguments in 2006. It takes time for all these things to occur. It's already happening. Foreclosures are up and unemployment is increasing. In 12 months your videos will be much different.
ok. then it is against all what you said the last years, and your app does not take it in consideration. sorry to hear that
Talk to BlackRock and Black Stone. They own all the property.
you're always wrong
9:57 made me laugh a little. You don't understand what "loan to value" means I guess. Healthier than ever? They were healthier than ever in 2007 as well, because the "value" was in a bubble. Literally a year later, the "value" was down 40%, exactly like what's coming over the next 2 years, only it'll be down 55% this time.
@@enthused7591 everyone has so much equity…. Until the moment they don’t.
No risky loans this time? There is nothing riskier than a loan written for a $1.5MM home that was $500K 2-3 years ago.
We just seen a looser a squirrel.. hahaha.
Excellent points! Nick and other UA-camrs are click-baiters! I've lived my whole life in "overpriced" markets like San Diego, Maui and Park City, UT. Successful buyers find a way and others just whine. I've got renter siblings that always complain about prices and other family and friends that found a way to buy, and are glad they did! My bro in NE Florida bought a nice home with pool last year and couldn't be happier. Man-up or cry. Your choice!
Great advertisement
Medium income
Seems you are back in favour with the YT gods, long may it last that you appear in my feed with new videos.
Everything on your channel is collapsing
TRIMP 2024
It’s not bizarre, it’s #floraduhhh
Feudalism
This will not age well
Great wah to get a dislike 👎
🥳
These are the laziest videos. Stock footage, spends half the time introducing and then playing other videos, no news that couldn’t be googled in 5 seconds. Do better MHFin
And here you are... watching.
Dont see a "crash" coming...its in a bubble and prices need to come down to more realistic levels inline with family salaries...there will be plenty of buyers as the prices decline...tons of people moving to florida.
Wool socks to bed > drug addiction cure level sleep quality 🟤🟥
@eyl