Try out the Patreon risk free here: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson Free investor Philosophy presentation: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vrtexx5dnv06npg1oatrn/Joseph-Carlson-Investment-Philosophy.pdf?rlkey=hsyb4c3ttf6nuvo3gknteyav9&dl=0 Patreon includes: Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week. Full access to Qualtrim.com, the stock analysis website I built from the ground up Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates. Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members Try it out now with a free trial!
The Amazon prime comparison is kinda flawed. Amazon has many different ways of generating cashflow. Memberships are only a small portion. For Netflix on the other hand, memberships are pretty much the only thing that makes them money.
Not anymore. Remember that revenue for Netflix will come partly from advertising going forward. I think they are smart to move away solely from subscribers.
Netflix is still reporting revenue by geography. So you can see exactly how much money they’re making in the US, Asia, or South America. They believe that data is preferable because subscribers impact the company differently. Also they say they’re not being silent on subscriber numbers. They will continue to report them when they hit landmarks. Just not on a quarterly basis.
apple did the same thing 3 years. ago with iPhone sales cause they were sick of only iPhone sales metrics mattering every quarter instead of the big picture. this is a good move in the long term.
"stock was up 90% over the trailing year". And 242% since the 2022 low. Do you think the market valuation looks rich, even after the post-earning drop? Fwd PE doesn't exactly look cheap imo.
T mobile offers Netflix subscription for free. Last quarter they added a second user to subscriptions when you have a T-Mobile account. Are they taking this into account in their numbers ?
I love Netflix as a product, there's no serious competition. However the stock is a different story. They're in a healthy financial situation, but growth is very limited. Stock price is waaaaay too high. Even when I'm overly optimistic I wouldn't pay more than $300 for it.
And guess what if the stock has changed in their earnings were bad then your narrative would have changed in the Kevin Leary would have been right and everybody else would have been also right. And then you would have been the one all confused and making excuses
Thank you for providing insight on this recent decision by NFLX to stop providing said figures. On an unrelated note, this CRM dip is wild, right after Mr. Carlson commited to it! Rooting for you, Joseph. Mr. Carlson is a long-term investor however, so short-term fluctuations are probably of little import to his long-term analysis, but disheartening nonetheless.
I forgot which recent video you posted that show your analysis for NVIDIA at $600 range, I like your explanation and wanted to show it to my friend, anyone can help?
Always like your chill perspective on stocks Joseph, would love to see you speak on RDDT, with a 20$/share of cash the company + current trends on traffic, it looks like a good short / long term play at these prices. Cheers!
buying back expensive shares is not a good capital allocation and will drag down its ROIC which is very important for tech companies I think Netflix doesn't have any moat on streaming platform to keep adding suscribers to keep that growth and justifiy those valuations and if you keep pushing prices up people will cancel their subscriptions.
It was years ago Netflix produced truly good content. It's just trash these days, and worse than every other streaming platform. Maybe Amazon is even worse, but it's close. If they made another House of Cards, we can talk. Look at Apple, almost every show feels premium.
It actually makes sense since each member doesn't automatically translate to 14 bucks per member. They make shit loads of money and still don't have strong competition that actually makes $. Im buying. Thanks for the pull back.
seems to me, that they are trying to avoid a compounding negativ effect on the stock in an eventual downturn. Just look at the last time they reported 2 quaters of reduced sub numbers. Another good example is actually the game "World of Warcraft". Blizzard always presented the sub count at their version of a shareholder event - "Blizzcon". When users saw the eventual decline in subscribers, they left too. In part because the image of the game had changed. The moat of both WOW and Netflix is, at least in part, a cultural one. They cannot afford to be the "uncool" or "old" company in their field.
I've watched your videos for years and always watch them on 1.75x speed. This one defaulted to 1x speed and I genuinely thought you were having a stroke
Hey Joseph, love the content but a small but I have an extremely critical suggestion. Could you please use Dark Mode on web pages you use to read text from? I am sure all your viewer including me will love it
I think this will be good thing for stock price. If you are a long term investor it is even better. Keeps the speculators out of the game. I bought more stock when O Leary sold them. I am still holding on to all Apple stock at an average price of $32.00.
I think this is one of those news stories that has that shock effect because investors are so used to looking at nothing but subscriber count. But now that Netflix is making money, it will be better for investors to change focus to the real numbers that matter. In the long run I see this helping Netflix and its share holders earn more. Seeing the subscriber count only helps to keep people comparing them to Disney or Paramount.
What has netflix really besides subribers? It looks like a simple business to me? Idk comparing netflix to apple aint the same, next to subs how are u really gonna evaluate the company?
Just for a valuation comparison, both Nvidia and Netflix are trading at 30s forward P/E ratio. What makes you think the growth potential for Netflix and Nvidia will be similar? The valuation for Netflix is just way too over value for its future growth potential. You should not boost your viewers expectation for an already over valued company like Netflix. It’s a high risk investment to invest a company that big with really expensive valuation and moderate growth potential. I am not saying Nvidia is a better investment, just use it as a valuation comparison to cool people mind off a little bit. Netflix is an expensive big company and will probably reach to its mature stage in foreseeable future.
the question is how much growth for how long? NVDA is in a highly cyclical industry growth varies from over 100% to negative over the cycle - NFLX sells to end consumers, inherently less cyclical due to the law of large numbers. It is by no means clear that NVDA deserves a higher multiple at this stage of the chip cycle. Agree that either of both may be overvalued, but one is not clearly more so than the other
@@bryanmonkhouse5800 My point is that Netflix is at least as expensive as one of the hottest stock (Nvidia) in the market now. Is this not crazy? Regard the concern of cyclicality, I usually account for the overall growth rate in 5 or 10 years and take the average. At the end it’s the EPS is going to determine the stock price most of the time. If a company’s average growth rate of EPS is better than another. Then it’s a better investment most of the time. I don’t think there is one stock will grow forever but it is not crazy to assume that the average growth rate of Nvidia will be similar to Netflix in the next 5 to 10 years. Both stock seems too risky for my taste and the return is likely not going to be worth the risk. There are many companies that we don’t see on news everyday which have way better valuation and growth potential.
Nvda owner here When you know your business pushes up all tech sectors including the big boys, you know you have a good thing 2T growing like a 0.25T they just cannot trade at the same PE
I just don't get the Netflix thesis. They can do great.. But I'm certainly not paying 270 B for a company generating 6 B in FCF, when I have a company generating the same FCF with a 20 B market cap. The IP under WBD is certainly undermonetized but also more valuable in my opinion.. Still on turnaround mode and with challenges in linear TV but management is executing really good.. sooo Nope!
This should be illegal, as a public company that generates the vast majority of their revenue from subscribers they should be compelled by the FTC to report their subscriber numbers!
Except now that they will be growing ad revenue, subscriber growth is less important. The Revenue by region will be sufficient as you can see where they are growing revenue and by how much in each region which imho (because of ad revenue) is more important than subscriber growth.
If Netflix is no more generating income based hour hours of views or ads viewed.. I can see how number of members is less important.. What I would like to know what the reason that netflix gave on why they woul no longer report number of subscribers.
I should give a more nuanced opinion. Recent subscriber growth is mostly due to cracking down on shared passwords across households. So, it's reasonable that Netflix does not want to report on declining subscriber growth. Secondly, I disagree with Carlson that Netflix has a strong moat. There are now many attractive streaming services that have cut into Netflix's dominance, including HBO Max, Amazon Prime movies, and Google's eclectic UA-cam videos, among others.
@@herbertlandon3267 yeah but no. Netflix is the one subscription that you need to have. People weave in and out of the others. This is why the others aren't making money.
I’ll never forget when Apple change their reporting and seeing the reaction. I also vividly remember that same video of Kevin saying that and exiting the stock. That’s when I went all out and heavily bought into Apple. I knew enough about the stock and the fundamentals to know that was the opportunity of the lifetime! Now like you said I’m up like 300% with dividends. Netflix may be in the same position today!
Okay here's something people need to understand nothing can grow forever. Sorry everything has a glass ceiling. The idea that line can always go up is insane.
Is my thinking super flawed here ? But I don't see how not reporting subscription numbers would be suspicious or whatnot as long as the company generates CFs while remaining profitable and has a sound balance sheet ? Sure, knowing it gained +X amount of subscribers over a quarter is good, but if it still manages to maintain its strong CF with, say, ad revenues, I'm fine with that ? Please tell me if I'm entirely mistaken and missing something obvious.
I think the real reason Netflix is down AH is because people are on edge and everything feels overpriced. We re in correction territory and people talk about recession.
Kevin got lucky with selling his company. With his comments makes me wonder if he got lucky and had hired the right people. Rich people/owners get to a point when they start thinking that their shit does not stink and get out of touch with reality. EGO.
Try out the Patreon risk free here: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
Free investor Philosophy presentation: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vrtexx5dnv06npg1oatrn/Joseph-Carlson-Investment-Philosophy.pdf?rlkey=hsyb4c3ttf6nuvo3gknteyav9&dl=0
Patreon includes:
Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week.
Full access to Qualtrim.com, the stock analysis website I built from the ground up
Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates.
Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members
Try it out now with a free trial!
Mr. O'leary reminds me of a glorified used car saleman
It also makes me wonder how many potentially good companies he missed out on on Shark Tank for being so easily dismissive of companies.
The Amazon prime comparison is kinda flawed. Amazon has many different ways of generating cashflow. Memberships are only a small portion. For Netflix on the other hand, memberships are pretty much the only thing that makes them money.
Great point.
Correct. And Amazon prime membership is a package of services
Not anymore. Remember that revenue for Netflix will come partly from advertising going forward. I think they are smart to move away solely from subscribers.
Netflix is still reporting revenue by geography. So you can see exactly how much money they’re making in the US, Asia, or South America. They believe that data is preferable because subscribers impact the company differently.
Also they say they’re not being silent on subscriber numbers. They will continue to report them when they hit landmarks. Just not on a quarterly basis.
Just not report the bad milestones, only the good ones
Not reporting a very important key metric to investors is what we could call “sus”, or “sussy”.
sussy baka if i may good sir
What a lovely Australian morning with my boy Joseph!
🥈
Relatable
A subscriber driven company that doesn’t want you to know their subscriber count… 🤯
I'm seeing a future 60 Minutes story coming on Netflix.
guess the problem is that the whole sector gets valued because of the no. of subscribers - so did joseph until now and in his intro as well
I think that they are probably gonna hit a natural wall of actual people
Usually not a good sign when they dont report stuff
Isn't there a history of that being true?
I mean, i like the discount! I'm buying once the market opens :D great FUD!
Kevin O'Leary.... lol. There's nothing good about that guy.
A grown man that calls himself mr. Wonderfull 😂😂
apple did the same thing 3 years. ago with iPhone sales cause they were sick of only iPhone sales metrics mattering every quarter instead of the big picture. this is a good move in the long term.
🥉
after that Apple’s revenue and stock price have not experienced growth over the past three years
I see iphone sales reports all over, we do not know the units but we know revenue from iphone sales went down
we still want to know it
"stock was up 90% over the trailing year". And 242% since the 2022 low. Do you think the market valuation looks rich, even after the post-earning drop? Fwd PE doesn't exactly look cheap imo.
I sold NFLX a few weeks ago around $600, no regrets,
smart
T mobile offers Netflix subscription for free. Last quarter they added a second user to subscriptions when you have a T-Mobile account. Are they taking this into account in their numbers ?
they've had those deals for years and they don't count as real subs
I would love to see the breakdown on their subscribers numbers
The T-Mobile offer is so limited it has little value at all.
@Chris-vz2kv the free netflix has been added to a lot of packages outside of the us. That probably bumped up the numbers.
is not like T-Mobile or any other company is not paying Netflix for those subscriptions
I love Netflix as a product, there's no serious competition. However the stock is a different story. They're in a healthy financial situation, but growth is very limited. Stock price is waaaaay too high. Even when I'm overly optimistic I wouldn't pay more than $300 for it.
I thought the numbers were great...
Investors probably did not like the forecast and reduced transparency.
Bitcoin halving is what you want to be focusing on. It´s both fine and inevitable. Disclose your´re stacking sats now. It´s all the news, Joseph
theyre not gonna report subscriber numbers for 2015 :O
🤦♂
😂
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHoursThey decided to quit tracking subscribers after they heard it was a KPI in Qualtrim.
can we go back to 2015? k thnx
😂😂
Stop the coffee quick! Joseph Carlson just posted on Netflix earnings come take a seat lets listen in.
Cringe
A biased investor has a bullish take. Shocker
And guess what if the stock has changed in their earnings were bad then your narrative would have changed in the Kevin Leary would have been right and everybody else would have been also right. And then you would have been the one all confused and making excuses
Stop reporting 2 or 3 main metrics of stock. Hmmm I wait if I want to invest.
Either wanting their revanue to drive the stock or they had a lot of growth in inexpensive markets like India
Kevin O Leary is probably hiding in Dubai ...
Fcf roughly in line with Warner.
Thank you for providing insight on this recent decision by NFLX to stop providing said figures.
On an unrelated note, this CRM dip is wild, right after Mr. Carlson commited to it!
Rooting for you, Joseph.
Mr. Carlson is a long-term investor however, so short-term fluctuations are probably of little import to his long-term analysis, but disheartening nonetheless.
I forgot which recent video you posted that show your analysis for NVIDIA at $600 range, I like your explanation and wanted to show it to my friend, anyone can help?
Always like your chill perspective on stocks Joseph, would love to see you speak on RDDT, with a 20$/share of cash the company + current trends on traffic, it looks like a good short / long term play at these prices. Cheers!
A video about the valuation of Vici 🙏
buying back expensive shares is not a good capital allocation and will drag down its ROIC which is very important for tech companies I think Netflix doesn't have any moat on streaming platform to keep adding suscribers to keep that growth and justifiy those valuations and if you keep pushing prices up people will cancel their subscriptions.
It was years ago Netflix produced truly good content. It's just trash these days, and worse than every other streaming platform. Maybe Amazon is even worse, but it's close. If they made another House of Cards, we can talk. Look at Apple, almost every show feels premium.
It actually makes sense since each member doesn't automatically translate to 14 bucks per member. They make shit loads of money and still don't have strong competition that actually makes $. Im buying. Thanks for the pull back.
seems to me, that they are trying to avoid a compounding negativ effect on the stock in an eventual downturn. Just look at the last time they reported 2 quaters of reduced sub numbers. Another good example is actually the game "World of Warcraft". Blizzard always presented the sub count at their version of a shareholder event - "Blizzcon". When users saw the eventual decline in subscribers, they left too. In part because the image of the game had changed. The moat of both WOW and Netflix is, at least in part, a cultural one. They cannot afford to be the "uncool" or "old" company in their field.
I've watched your videos for years and always watch them on 1.75x speed. This one defaulted to 1x speed and I genuinely thought you were having a stroke
Hey Joseph, love the content but a small but I have an extremely critical suggestion. Could you please use Dark Mode on web pages you use to read text from? I am sure all your viewer including me will love it
I think this will be good thing for stock price. If you are a long term investor it is even better. Keeps the speculators out of the game.
I bought more stock when O Leary sold them. I am still holding on to all Apple stock at an average price of $32.00.
Lots of room to grow in Asian countries, especially now with AI being able to make actors look like they're actually speaking any language...
I think this is one of those news stories that has that shock effect because investors are so used to looking at nothing but subscriber count. But now that Netflix is making money, it will be better for investors to change focus to the real numbers that matter. In the long run I see this helping Netflix and its share holders earn more. Seeing the subscriber count only helps to keep people comparing them to Disney or Paramount.
What has netflix really besides subribers? It looks like a simple business to me? Idk comparing netflix to apple aint the same, next to subs how are u really gonna evaluate the company?
I know it would be a regulatory nightmare, but does anyone think that Netflix could get into the online live casino game business?
Buying opportunity!
Just for a valuation comparison, both Nvidia and Netflix are trading at 30s forward P/E ratio. What makes you think the growth potential for Netflix and Nvidia will be similar? The valuation for Netflix is just way too over value for its future growth potential. You should not boost your viewers expectation for an already over valued company like Netflix. It’s a high risk investment to invest a company that big with really expensive valuation and moderate growth potential. I am not saying Nvidia is a better investment, just use it as a valuation comparison to cool people mind off a little bit. Netflix is an expensive big company and will probably reach to its mature stage in foreseeable future.
the question is how much growth for how long? NVDA is in a highly cyclical industry growth varies from over 100% to negative over the cycle - NFLX sells to end consumers, inherently less cyclical due to the law of large numbers. It is by no means clear that NVDA deserves a higher multiple at this stage of the chip cycle. Agree that either of both may be overvalued, but one is not clearly more so than the other
@@bryanmonkhouse5800 My point is that Netflix is at least as expensive as one of the hottest stock (Nvidia) in the market now. Is this not crazy? Regard the concern of cyclicality, I usually account for the overall growth rate in 5 or 10 years and take the average. At the end it’s the EPS is going to determine the stock price most of the time. If a company’s average growth rate of EPS is better than another. Then it’s a better investment most of the time. I don’t think there is one stock will grow forever but it is not crazy to assume that the average growth rate of Nvidia will be similar to Netflix in the next 5 to 10 years. Both stock seems too risky for my taste and the return is likely not going to be worth the risk. There are many companies that we don’t see on news everyday which have way better valuation and growth potential.
Nvda owner here
When you know your business pushes up all tech sectors including the big boys, you know you have a good thing
2T growing like a 0.25T they just cannot trade at the same PE
Going the way of Blizzard.... except for the whole making money thing
Subscriber numbers are just such a fun metric to follow. I wonder if other streaming companies will follow suit.
I just don't get the Netflix thesis.
They can do great..
But I'm certainly not paying 270 B for a company generating 6 B in FCF, when I have a company generating the same FCF with a 20 B market cap.
The IP under WBD is certainly undermonetized but also more valuable in my opinion..
Still on turnaround mode and with challenges in linear TV but management is executing really good.. sooo Nope!
dont forget netflix have many game development studio with games in development
I’d love to get back to 2014, Joseph make your magic
Omg what a self dunk by Kevin O'Leary 🤣
Tesla sub 150? Interested? or near 100 you will buy?
Just want to help you, never try to attempt to catch “a falling knife 🔪”. You will get hurt.
😅Going to $50.00😂
2015 lol :D
Do you plan on allocating any cash to Nflx or Amzn during this correction?
Nice&Fast analysis man ! Thank you for that.
This should be illegal, as a public company that generates the vast majority of their revenue from subscribers they should be compelled by the FTC to report their subscriber numbers!
Except now that they will be growing ad revenue, subscriber growth is less important. The Revenue by region will be sufficient as you can see where they are growing revenue and by how much in each region which imho (because of ad revenue) is more important than subscriber growth.
They’re still reporting their revenue from subscribers.
All companies show revenue. Very few show how many customers they have to get that revenue
Not sure I agree
Subscribers are the foundation to everything else
If Netflix is no more generating income based hour hours of views or ads viewed.. I can see how number of members is less important.. What I would like to know what the reason that netflix gave on why they woul no longer report number of subscribers.
Because the stock is overvalued
And Netflix did drop 9% damn
This video is really sped up
What are you reading right now, Joe?
👍
I see the price decline today in NFLX more about macro concerns about inflation rather than Netflix's report.
I should give a more nuanced opinion. Recent subscriber growth is mostly due to cracking down on shared passwords across households. So, it's reasonable that Netflix does not want to report on declining subscriber growth. Secondly, I disagree with Carlson that Netflix has a strong moat. There are now many attractive streaming services that have cut into Netflix's dominance, including HBO Max, Amazon Prime movies, and Google's eclectic UA-cam videos, among others.
@@herbertlandon3267 yeah but no. Netflix is the one subscription that you need to have. People weave in and out of the others. This is why the others aren't making money.
run 🏃
Sketch
2025*
Joseph you are the best.
Thanks for the info ✅
2015 !!!!!
Whoa they haven’t report since 2015
Might be a good buying opportunity if there is an overreaction
I’ll never forget when Apple change their reporting and seeing the reaction. I also vividly remember that same video of Kevin saying that and exiting the stock. That’s when I went all out and heavily bought into Apple. I knew enough about the stock and the fundamentals to know that was the opportunity of the lifetime! Now like you said I’m up like 300% with dividends. Netflix may be in the same position today!
they been lyin about it since password crackdown
Okay here's something people need to understand nothing can grow forever.
Sorry everything has a glass ceiling. The idea that line can always go up is insane.
It is beyond delusional to think we should compare Netflix the same as Amazon and Apple.
I'm comparing their reporting, not the companies.
@JosephCarlsonAfterHours some people don't understand nuance.
joseph you are a better analyst than these wall street idiots
2015?! May want to edit that part lol 😂
Is my thinking super flawed here ? But I don't see how not reporting subscription numbers would be suspicious or whatnot as long as the company generates CFs while remaining profitable and has a sound balance sheet ? Sure, knowing it gained +X amount of subscribers over a quarter is good, but if it still manages to maintain its strong CF with, say, ad revenues, I'm fine with that ? Please tell me if I'm entirely mistaken and missing something obvious.
You people know you can just pirate watch all your favorite shows, right?
I dont believe in a business that can be done for free.
I think the real reason Netflix is down AH is because people are on edge and everything feels overpriced. We re in correction territory and people talk about recession.
First?
🥇
I can't be the only one who instinctively checked the screen at 1:48
This kid does have a quarter of he claims. Don’t fall for the bullshit people.
What's the source of your claim?
You have about 105 shares of Netflix. That hardly qualifies you to be a "large shareholder".
$60k is a lot of money. If you don’t think that quantifies as a large sum of money, please send it my way :)
Meant large in proportion of my portfolio, not in proportion to the size of the company.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours haters gone hate. Ain'ters gone ain't.
We understood what you meant Joseph 😊
for a regular person that is a lot of shares
Kevin got lucky with selling his company. With his comments makes me wonder if he got lucky and had hired the right people.
Rich people/owners get to a point when they start thinking that their shit does not stink and get out of touch with reality. EGO.