Hey everyone, thanks for jumping back into the recessionverse. Today we're going to talk about Economy and its native token, GDP (formerly known as GNP before the hardfork).
The kicker here... The fiscal state we find ourselves have some origin from nearly every other crisis since the '60s. Not to mention the most complicated geopolitics in history
One of the BEST explanations I've heard, period. Straight forward analysis, and a GREAT summary at the end that Ben puts together to bring it home. It's long and I would suggest listening to it a few times. Well worth it! Thank you Ben for taking the time and putting this together and removing all "is this the bottom" noise.
You talked about how unlike previous recession scenarios, the fed is raising interest rates as opposed to lowering them while the economy is declining. How does that affect the possible outcomes/predictions/timeline of the current/coming recession? Could you possibly make a video explaining the direct effects of raising/lowering interest rates by the fed on the stock market/ crypto? Keep up the great content! Learning a lot from you!
Been looking for all of this info you regularly discuss in a nice package. Thanks Ben! Love to hear you and James (IA) contrasting views, though there is also a lot of agreement between you two.
Great analysis as usual. But what happens if during this recession cbdc's and stakeholder economy get rolled out in order to try to eliminate contraction and expansion based economy ? It looks to me like the stage is slowly being set for this :)
10:23 And the elephant in the room?...Historically, on your chart, the interest rate is clearly leading inflation. Even though increasing the interest rate may be useful in bubbles/mania to reduce demand, it just exacerbates inflation when the causes are supply chain issues, Government policy (particularly Green policies that have lead to an almost complete shutdown of new fossil fuel investment), and sanctions. Rate hikes add to inflation because the cost of credit is reflected in the cost of all goods and services.
This such an awesome video, Ben!! I loved it! The information is brilliant, well informed and broken down. Thank you so much for educating people like me and informing us. I enjoyed the information very much and to me it was very useful. ❤
Perhaps I missed this or I'm just ignorant, but what are the criteria for the grey boxes indicating past recessions? Do these track the official declarations or...?
They said the same thing in 2008 , go look at the articles from back then and 2000 , they then had “counter points” as to why we weren’t in a recession, they always do ….they will announce it and when they do it will be too late
I feel like you made this comment without watching the video. Ben has shown repeatedly here that interest rates will inevitably push unemployment up. Then the stock market (and probably BTC) will bottom before unemployment peaks. The recession will be the period that unemployment is going up, and we're clearly not there yet. This has played out repeatedly, so we're looking at 2023 for probably the lowest BTC buy.
Great stuff as always Ben. I'm making a video now for what I think may be the final leg down for crypto in NOV after the midterm elections in the U.S. Generational buy opportunities incoming! Again, appreciate the content and keep up the great work.
great information, thanks. what about the possibility that stocks soar earlier and despite of the economy slowing down, just because the Fed is pivoting? so, if inflation forms the double peak and goes down within the next few months and the fed pivots, economy still suffers from the effects, but stock market already bottoms because of the fed pivot, and not later on during the recession..? (in short, decoupling of stock market and real economy)
What are the chances that actually this recession acts as a socio-psychological catalyst for the bull run now instead the long anticipated last drop due to people sell-pressure because off losing jobs or price hikes in order boost their budget to push through crisis?
Couldn't it be that the stock market corrected earlier because the general market can predict what's going to happen in the future (pricing in stocks) better because of accesability of advanced tools has increased way more over time. This means more people have more information and so can predict something better. That's the biggest change we had since other crashes. Maybe we will bottom earlier because it is priced in earlier. Something to think about.
I’ve been trying to decode the ending of the video about core inflations correlation but i’m presuming a lagging indicator which hints at a brief capitulation to come, i believe time is on side to accumulate on multi month timeframe but could be wrong
I'm not the biggest fan of dalio and other permabears, but his thesis is interesting about economic cycles and currency. I disagree with his conclusions that the USD is coming to an end any time soon... But it has gotten me to keep an ear out for the more global perspective of US monetary policy rather than just as it relates to US jobs and markets. Just looking at what is going on in Europe, Russia and China right now, and then looking at the fed being nearly giddy about causing a recession... I'm kind of wondering if this play has more to do with the global economy and currency battles going on rather than the US economy in specific. I mean, the hiking of the interest rates is just sucking funds out of other currencies right now, just to sit in USD and treasuries uninvested. I'm wondering if this is as much to bring some health and buffer in unwinding the fed balance sheet as it is to pull effective liquidity from other markets (or create liquidity for other markets). Punching someone in the face hurts your hand... It just hurts the person you are punching more than yourself. For countries like the middle east trying to remove themselves from the petrodollar, it could make an interesting argument that oil still be sold in USD simply because even if it isn't as strong and reliable a currency that it once was, it is still the strongest currency on the world markets. But then again, this may motivate them to get off the petrodollar at any cost just so they are not beholden to us fed policy to set value. For Russia who is largely cut off from the USD, this has got to be devistating. I mean... Sure their numbers within Russia don't look too terrible yet, but their trade numbers are awful as they can't export as much overall product, and their currency keeps tanking compared to everywhere else as it is accepted in fewer and fewer places. And then I would assume this would be a boon for China? Because aren't they the largest single entity of USD and bonds? And doesn't this boost the value of their exports yot he US in a huge way? I'm half wondering if this is a sort of really weird olive branch to China to encourage them to end lock downs and boost production, as well as drive an economic wedge between China who has access to USD and Russia who is an ever increasing liability. All politics and rhetoric aside, there has never been a greater economic prosperity created for two nations quite like US and China. The idea that both sides would throw all of that away in a war over Taiwan just seems insane. But then again, we are doing more and more business with India. It was overlooked by many, but during covid India stopped exporting medical chemical base components, which would have meant a 3 month time bomb before we would have lost a lot of common drugs that people rely on to survive because we get some 80%+ of our supplies from India. At that point Covid was thought to kill some 8-10% of people infected, but without drugs we would lose some 20% of our population in a matter of months. But point being that India will be the last cheap manufacturer the world will have before automation takes hold in full force. Keeping the dollar value higher could bring in more value in the medium to long term by encouraging more competition between India and China to manufacture goods for the US than the pain it causes us in exports. Anywho, all of this is wild congecture based on headlines and poor memory rather than any facts. But Ben, I wonder if you could show off some charts showing US rate hikes vs other currencies and imports vs exports? Does my crazy rambling have any legs? Or am I just waaay out there on this one? Also, can you do a video on Facebook stock? No particular reason, I just want to hear an opener of "welcome back to the meta verse" because that would be hilarious!
Thanks, Great Work. During the last covid period where US intervened by excessive printing of fiat to solve the economic issues, it would be similar this time round except that strategies like rate hikes implemented to counter balance the economy so that it would not tip over to extremes.
Ben, I'm loving your channel and content. Thanks so much for the quality videos and analysis. One question I've been thinking about recently is how increased globalization may make some global recession related metrics more relevant today than they have been in the past. I'd be curious if inflation comes down this cycle prior to the indication of previously telling signs of a recession/stock market bottom i.e. unemployment due to the pressures of USD denominated debt overseas leading to earlier recessions in other countries that would bring down US inflation in the US through cheaper imports or other means.
My question is how do the 70s, 80s etc. correlate as much when they have new "tools" and rules keep changing. I think they're just winging it to get to the next phase. 🤷♀️😂
This is what keeps going through my head. I mean, the 1970s simply can't play out the same way. Too much has changed on the world landscape for any single country to be able to cause the same kind of energy crisis and crash as what happened then. And the fear that hydrocarbon producers face right now is causing price spikes that push people to renewables. They want as much as they can get for their product... But losing a customer from being greedy is worse than selling something at a more moderate profit for a long time. Then we have the yield curve inversion being as deep as the y2k crash... But there is no new asset class as comperably large as the tech companies during that bubble which is collapsing. I mean, crypto is big... But not that big... Especially in the US. And then watching stocks play out is following the 2008 crash with amazing correlation. But, where on earth is the impitus for that? In 2008 banks were insanely deep on holding bad debts, which caused a liquidity crisis, which tanked the markets. But where is that now? I mean, housing prices are high, but not like it was then. And assets are rated more realistically, and home buyers have safer loans and better credit. There is just no boogie man asset class looming in the background as large or as dangerous as the 2008 housing crisis which should or would cause that kind of pain to liquidity. In fact, the fed has been cutting off new liquidity, and letting old liquidity expire off their balance sheets at a rather amazing pace and we still have quite a lot of liquidity, which is why things keep moving. Even looking at the poor numbers from companies this week, much of the pain is in exports and business over seas rather than US based business and sales. So I don't pretend to understand what is going on. I'm not sure if people are just jumping at shadows from past crashes and their expectations are forcing their fears into realit? or is there a legit issue that im overlooking? Or maybe the issue is just the world at large, and the pain of Covid and lock downs are just forcing countries to transition to more insular self reliant economies? Who knows... I'm just hoping the worst of it plays out over the next year, and it doesn't drag out beyond that.
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is the fed raising rates into a slowing economy to speed our journey to the bottom so we can start the bear market sooner than later?
Hey everyone, thanks for jumping back into the recessionverse. Today we're going to talk about Economy and its native token, GDP (formerly known as GNP before the hardfork).
33:21 “ The pivot that was promised “
I immediately had Game of thrones season 8 flash backs.
you should really make a series out of this. The video is incredibly useful and packed of information
I watch all of Ben's content. Just watched this in its entirety and it's one of the most powerful and helpful. Excellent video Ben
This is possibly the best macro video I've ever seen. Superb explanation of key macro drivers influencing the market. Not to be missed.
The kicker here... The fiscal state we find ourselves have some origin from nearly every other crisis since the '60s.
Not to mention the most complicated geopolitics in history
Keep up the great work. I've learned a lot since I discovered you over the past couple of months.
One of the BEST explanations I've heard, period. Straight forward analysis, and a GREAT summary at the end that Ben puts together to bring it home. It's long and I would suggest listening to it a few times. Well worth it! Thank you Ben for taking the time and putting this together and removing all "is this the bottom" noise.
This legand of a man will have a million followers at this rate. Started following in 2018 and never have been disappointed. Great content.
It blows my mind that Ben just puts out these videos for free. I feel so spoiled.
You talked about how unlike previous recession scenarios, the fed is raising interest rates as opposed to lowering them while the economy is declining. How does that affect the possible outcomes/predictions/timeline of the current/coming recession? Could you possibly make a video explaining the direct effects of raising/lowering interest rates by the fed on the stock market/ crypto?
Keep up the great content! Learning a lot from you!
Thank you!!!🙏🏿 for not putting commercial interruptions throughout! 😭
Ben is the GOAT of crypto youtube. Hall of fame.
Probably my favorite video you've done -- great job -- it's all about the macro imho (not the mini-trends).
Nice one. I repeat again : this guy is a genius ...
This is the most educational finance video I've ever seen. Love Ben's stuff
Who needs Ben Powell when we have Ben Cowen
Glad that your Voice is back 💪
Been looking for all of this info you regularly discuss in a nice package. Thanks Ben!
Love to hear you and James (IA) contrasting views, though there is also a lot of agreement between you two.
Great analysis as usual. But what happens if during this recession cbdc's and stakeholder economy get rolled out in order to try to eliminate contraction and expansion based economy ? It looks to me like the stage is slowly being set for this :)
10:23 And the elephant in the room?...Historically, on your chart, the interest rate is clearly leading inflation. Even though increasing the interest rate may be useful in bubbles/mania to reduce demand, it just exacerbates inflation when the causes are supply chain issues, Government policy (particularly Green policies that have lead to an almost complete shutdown of new fossil fuel investment), and sanctions. Rate hikes add to inflation because the cost of credit is reflected in the cost of all goods and services.
This such an awesome video, Ben!! I loved it! The information is brilliant, well informed and broken down. Thank you so much for educating people like me and informing us. I enjoyed the information very much and to me it was very useful. ❤
The "AAAfter" at 26:50 killed me for some reason 😂 Great series as always Ben, love your work!
Hands down for this analysis! Thanks again Ben for all your hard work and sharing with us👌🏼
Perhaps I missed this or I'm just ignorant, but what are the criteria for the grey boxes indicating past recessions? Do these track the official declarations or...?
One if your best videos yet. Thank you
Benjamin killing it, as usual
strong work Ben ...great birds eye view ... tia...🙏
I wish I could like this 10 times. Great work
They said the same thing in 2008 , go look at the articles from back then and 2000 , they then had “counter points” as to why we weren’t in a recession, they always do ….they will announce it and when they do it will be too late
Another stonking video with so much value. Thank you.
Ben gives context first, and opinion last. An antithesiluencer. Anti-fluencer. Antithifluencer. He's an Antithe-fluencer
A lot of intelligent stuff. I haven't wrapped my wits around a direction to take based on all this. I assume that Bitcoin tends to parallel the s&p?
Thanks dude. I feel recessions are almost over once announced. Just my opinion. I think you've even said that before.
It’s because we evaluate it with the stock market. Once it bottoms we declare a recession..and by then the worst is usually over.
I feel like you made this comment without watching the video. Ben has shown repeatedly here that interest rates will inevitably push unemployment up. Then the stock market (and probably BTC) will bottom before unemployment peaks. The recession will be the period that unemployment is going up, and we're clearly not there yet. This has played out repeatedly, so we're looking at 2023 for probably the lowest BTC buy.
ty ben you are truly pro in understanding the market , i love ur channel and ur analysis keep it bro
Great vid Ben. I'm of the same mind and believe we're at the same point in 2008 the last rally before next leg down.
Amazing video as always Ben. Thank you
Great video Ben
Noah to his family on the ARK, day 23 at sea: "I think we might be due for some rain..."
This video is absolutely brilliant. thank you.
love you man, thank you for everything! ❣
Thank you for the good advice and guidance, don't have much money to invest but love your analysis!
best video ever, wow 🤩
Love your videos. They are so much ful of information.
thank you Dearts Benjamin , great great work
great video. thanks. your are my Guru ♥️ 🙏
This video has me drenched
Can this be sort of aplied to crypto market and calling the final capitulation is yet to come once recesions kick in?
Great stuff as always Ben. I'm making a video now for what I think may be the final leg down for crypto in NOV after the midterm elections in the U.S. Generational buy opportunities incoming! Again, appreciate the content and keep up the great work.
Raising Interest rates doesn’t do anything but crush demand it doesn’t fix inflation
Awesome content Ben, thanks!
awesome ben!! thanks
great video ben!
So what if the market has prematurely priced in a recession?? Hence meaning we are close to a bottom now
Which new altcoin is this?
Time to read Rothbard :D
very very very nice video !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
great information, thanks. what about the possibility that stocks soar earlier and despite of the economy slowing down, just because the Fed is pivoting? so, if inflation forms the double peak and goes down within the next few months and the fed pivots, economy still suffers from the effects, but stock market already bottoms because of the fed pivot, and not later on during the recession..? (in short, decoupling of stock market and real economy)
This is one hell of a time to be a retired Boomer living on social security and 401K withdrawals
I don't know how to express how thankful we are for your videos Ben. Please put ads just so we feel like we are giving something back..
What are the chances that actually this recession acts as a socio-psychological catalyst for the bull run now instead the long anticipated last drop due to people sell-pressure because off losing jobs or price hikes in order boost their budget to push through crisis?
Thanks for the video.
In other words: yes, the US is entering a recession and no, house TA will not save you.
I love when you do that kind of analysis. Thanks!
The bottom is in. End of 22 into 23 will be a nice push up in markets.
That was a good one 💯
Great video!
Yes. Curious how unemployment/inflation calculations have changed since 70s. They always modify calcs for desired results! Shiesters!
Good stuff thanks Ben!
brilliant
Crazy valuable information. Wow
Thanks Ben!
Great content Ben, as usual.
I believe previous recessions have about a 3.3% gdp growth before the drop
Couldn't it be that the stock market corrected earlier because the general market can predict what's going to happen in the future (pricing in stocks) better because of accesability of advanced tools has increased way more over time. This means more people have more information and so can predict something better. That's the biggest change we had since other crashes. Maybe we will bottom earlier because it is priced in earlier. Something to think about.
Great analysis but waiting for unemployment to peak with a supply and debt crisis will be interesting
I’ve been trying to decode the ending of the video about core inflations correlation but i’m presuming a lagging indicator which hints at a brief capitulation to come, i believe time is on side to accumulate on multi month timeframe but could be wrong
Thanks BEN.
Apparently there are rumours right now that they are talking about pivoting. Not confirmed though.
I'm not the biggest fan of dalio and other permabears, but his thesis is interesting about economic cycles and currency. I disagree with his conclusions that the USD is coming to an end any time soon... But it has gotten me to keep an ear out for the more global perspective of US monetary policy rather than just as it relates to US jobs and markets.
Just looking at what is going on in Europe, Russia and China right now, and then looking at the fed being nearly giddy about causing a recession... I'm kind of wondering if this play has more to do with the global economy and currency battles going on rather than the US economy in specific.
I mean, the hiking of the interest rates is just sucking funds out of other currencies right now, just to sit in USD and treasuries uninvested. I'm wondering if this is as much to bring some health and buffer in unwinding the fed balance sheet as it is to pull effective liquidity from other markets (or create liquidity for other markets). Punching someone in the face hurts your hand... It just hurts the person you are punching more than yourself.
For countries like the middle east trying to remove themselves from the petrodollar, it could make an interesting argument that oil still be sold in USD simply because even if it isn't as strong and reliable a currency that it once was, it is still the strongest currency on the world markets. But then again, this may motivate them to get off the petrodollar at any cost just so they are not beholden to us fed policy to set value.
For Russia who is largely cut off from the USD, this has got to be devistating. I mean... Sure their numbers within Russia don't look too terrible yet, but their trade numbers are awful as they can't export as much overall product, and their currency keeps tanking compared to everywhere else as it is accepted in fewer and fewer places.
And then I would assume this would be a boon for China? Because aren't they the largest single entity of USD and bonds? And doesn't this boost the value of their exports yot he US in a huge way? I'm half wondering if this is a sort of really weird olive branch to China to encourage them to end lock downs and boost production, as well as drive an economic wedge between China who has access to USD and Russia who is an ever increasing liability. All politics and rhetoric aside, there has never been a greater economic prosperity created for two nations quite like US and China. The idea that both sides would throw all of that away in a war over Taiwan just seems insane.
But then again, we are doing more and more business with India. It was overlooked by many, but during covid India stopped exporting medical chemical base components, which would have meant a 3 month time bomb before we would have lost a lot of common drugs that people rely on to survive because we get some 80%+ of our supplies from India. At that point Covid was thought to kill some 8-10% of people infected, but without drugs we would lose some 20% of our population in a matter of months. But point being that India will be the last cheap manufacturer the world will have before automation takes hold in full force. Keeping the dollar value higher could bring in more value in the medium to long term by encouraging more competition between India and China to manufacture goods for the US than the pain it causes us in exports.
Anywho, all of this is wild congecture based on headlines and poor memory rather than any facts. But Ben, I wonder if you could show off some charts showing US rate hikes vs other currencies and imports vs exports? Does my crazy rambling have any legs? Or am I just waaay out there on this one?
Also, can you do a video on Facebook stock? No particular reason, I just want to hear an opener of "welcome back to the meta verse" because that would be hilarious!
US hopping back into the Recessionverse smh
thank You
Good Video and Thank You....
holy shit ben, this is good stuff!
3M Treasury just inverted the 10Y
Thanks, Great Work. During the last covid period where US intervened by excessive printing of fiat to solve the economic issues, it would be similar this time round except that strategies like rate hikes implemented to counter balance the economy so that it would not tip over to extremes.
So good
Ben, I'm loving your channel and content. Thanks so much for the quality videos and analysis. One question I've been thinking about recently is how increased globalization may make some global recession related metrics more relevant today than they have been in the past. I'd be curious if inflation comes down this cycle prior to the indication of previously telling signs of a recession/stock market bottom i.e. unemployment due to the pressures of USD denominated debt overseas leading to earlier recessions in other countries that would bring down US inflation in the US through cheaper imports or other means.
Has there ever been a S&P bottom before a recession is called?
Simply amazing
Thats why buying gold is a terrible idea now
My question is how do the 70s, 80s etc. correlate as much when they have new "tools" and rules keep changing. I think they're just winging it to get to the next phase. 🤷♀️😂
This is what keeps going through my head. I mean, the 1970s simply can't play out the same way. Too much has changed on the world landscape for any single country to be able to cause the same kind of energy crisis and crash as what happened then. And the fear that hydrocarbon producers face right now is causing price spikes that push people to renewables. They want as much as they can get for their product... But losing a customer from being greedy is worse than selling something at a more moderate profit for a long time.
Then we have the yield curve inversion being as deep as the y2k crash... But there is no new asset class as comperably large as the tech companies during that bubble which is collapsing. I mean, crypto is big... But not that big... Especially in the US.
And then watching stocks play out is following the 2008 crash with amazing correlation. But, where on earth is the impitus for that? In 2008 banks were insanely deep on holding bad debts, which caused a liquidity crisis, which tanked the markets. But where is that now? I mean, housing prices are high, but not like it was then. And assets are rated more realistically, and home buyers have safer loans and better credit. There is just no boogie man asset class looming in the background as large or as dangerous as the 2008 housing crisis which should or would cause that kind of pain to liquidity. In fact, the fed has been cutting off new liquidity, and letting old liquidity expire off their balance sheets at a rather amazing pace and we still have quite a lot of liquidity, which is why things keep moving. Even looking at the poor numbers from companies this week, much of the pain is in exports and business over seas rather than US based business and sales.
So I don't pretend to understand what is going on. I'm not sure if people are just jumping at shadows from past crashes and their expectations are forcing their fears into realit? or is there a legit issue that im overlooking? Or maybe the issue is just the world at large, and the pain of Covid and lock downs are just forcing countries to transition to more insular self reliant economies? Who knows... I'm just hoping the worst of it plays out over the next year, and it doesn't drag out beyond that.
Did bitcoin bottom??
True the employment rate is up . But I know some that need two jobs to pay the bills . Inflation
Do you think a terminal rate of 5% can fix inflation running at 8.2%?
Thanks
What if the unemployment rate never goes up?
The US stock market bottoms for no man
🐐🐐🐐
United States has less than 25 days of diesel fuel in reserves.
Where in the world are you getting your information