Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions
Вставка
- Опубліковано 5 лют 2025
- During a period where many of us have decided to become armchair economists (myself included), I thought it would be somewhat useful to dive into some larger trends shaping in the current macroeconomic landscape. We can see some inversions on the yield curve, inflation remains high, and the #Fed will likely have to continue raising rates into a slowing economy due to rampant #inflation. Of course anything can happen, but the outlook on some of these metrics can be useful in navigating these market conditions.
Into The Cryptoverse Premium:
intothecryptov...
LIFETIME OPTION:
intothecryptov...
Alternative Option:
/ intothecryptoverse
Merch:
store.intothec...
Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.
Telegram: t.me/intocrypt...
Twitter: / intocryptoverse
TikTok: tiktok.com/@benjamincowencrypto
Instagram: / bjcowen
Discord: / discord
Facebook: / intothecryptoverse
Reddit: / intothecryptoverse
Website: intothecryptov...
ah yes, me pretending to be an expert at macroeconomics
Are you not ?
Did you notice that dxy is very close to ~120 level. We might get there by end of year
It's useful and informative bud, keep it up
Would be awesome if you could do a video on rate expectations, including euro dollar futures
You're probably better than most 🤣
Ben I've been watching you for a couple of years now. You are trully doing amazing job educating people and sharing your thoughts. Your content is second to none! Absolutely incredible. Keep it up mate! Greetings from Sydney
From Sydney as well! ❤
You can tell Ben is frustrated with UA-cam and Twitter. This is what happens when a literal rocket scientist meets a bunch of degenerate crypto traders. Around 20 minutes into the video he goes into kindergarten teacher mode and it hilarious to me. Great video. Thanks man.
Well yeah unfortunately the human race isn't as smart as it would like to think it is... generally speaking. Again, generally speaking, it seems like most of us have too much ego to reach our full potential. You're unlikely to change or try to better yourself if you already see yourself as being above average, which most people seem to think they are. It's all about perspective really. Having confidence and having doubt is good, it's all about balance. The reverse is also true: smart people tend to actually be too humble, and don't speak loud enough.
holy smokes you fucking nailed this explanation for the layman. took me months to gather this bit by bit and you pieced it all together in a single video.
Who needs to take a macro economic class at college when you can just watch this video. You covered everything. Excellent work
Thanks for the wholistic view Ben. Your channel is so valuable and is genuinely looking out for people vs. just shilling crypto 24/7 brainlessly. We all believe its the future, but there's good and bad times to buy. Thanks for the wisdom.
Ben is an absolute Top G. So insightful. Love you Ben. God Bless you.
He’s such a high value male
He is the alpha
Anyone new to crypto just listen to this guy he will not give you no nonsense! Pure class information
The 130% debt to GDP is another factor to consider as to how high they can raise the rates.
Super quality video, had some viewers recommend this one. Did not disappoint!
love the insight. I also absolutely love that you don't do adverts. Please never change Ben! Oh also, I don't buy your stuff, but, from what I've seen you offer some of the most practical looking stuff! not just some hype guy telling you how to keep grinding.
I think you did a good job explaining some of the macro factors. My personal view is, that the U.S. has an asset price inflation combined with too much demand for some goods during a supply chain disrupption due to the lockdowns in china. Europe on the other hand has a commodity based inflation due to the russian invasion and soaring natural gas prices. These factors caused a dissruption in the Euro/Dollar market and the DXY soared, while the Euro crashed more than 18%. The strenghtening of the Dollar caused a flight to savety from big money and a sell off from risky assets. In my opinion its gonna be pretty hard for central banks to tame infaltion, until commodities (espacially natural gas) will cool down. Goldman Sachs predicted the CPI for the U.K. to top out nearby 17-20% next year, which is insane. So there likely will be more pain to come because these markets are so interconnected. If the EU/UK are in a recession and cant buy the goods/services from the US anymore, this will have a trickle down effects on the US economy, even if the US CPI has already peaked.
You're one of the smartest dudes out there. Good work
Today were gonna talk about unemployment and it's native token jobs
Big thanks for actually stepping thru definitions of Risk On/Off. Hear the terms, but no one specifically defines them.. As well, same kudos on yield curve discussion, solid video.
Thanks Ben. I always wondered why the 2 & 10 year are important. Great stuff.
I'm here for the "macroeconomicsverse"!
Thanks Ben!! I finally understand how this works. Well done!
Many thanks Ben for your time and efforts !!!
When you search for a quick crypto video and end up with an economics degree
...and welcome BACK to the macroeconomicsverse!
I love learning with Ben! You're doing an awesome job. Thanks again!
Excellent video, well explained. Do you plan to produce some collab videos with other macroeconomics experts to talk about bonds, raw materials, commodities etc.? Once started, you really want to dive even deeper into this topic because you find confluence everywhere.
bro your brain is incredible. great great great observations and findings in these markets.
it definitely helps some people i.e me. Always a different perspective of market. Great Content Ben. Sitting on cash still patiently.
Great presentation Ben, nice write up!
I’m really enjoying these videos in addition to the Crypto space.
Thanks! you are the best! Around last fall I asked for macro videos. I really appreciate this!!
More of this type of content please
Thanks for your insight Ben, could you do one of these for the situation in Europe?
Top content as usual !
Every beginning of the verse with a comical smile n chuckle
But yet brilliant soon then after
Absolutely great breakdown 👍🏻👍🏻 Really have a difficult time thinking anyone could think bottom is in. Thanks!
Thanks Benjamin…great explanation of all the moving parts.
Amazing work mate you explain everything to a tee and easy to digest and tie it all together. Love your work and keep going!!!!!
Ben, you are a saint. Thanks for this.
Very informative and excellent observation
Ben for Fed Chair after JP!
Great video but you didn't explain the reason why the yield curve inverts.
Please keep updating us on this topic, SUPER useful.
Great video, Ben, as per usual. Keep an eye on the SPX 200 day MA 👀
Nailed that intro
Again great video Sheldon!
Thanks Ben, enjoyed your vid!
more content like this please!!!
Luv yr work Ben BUT WHY didnt you take your graph back to the 87 crash. If it worked so well I think you should have included this time instead of cutting out just to perhaps support this angle??
Thanks Ben. Great job as usual.
good job ben
Awesome video
Thanks Ben. Really great vid and interesting takes
Awesome video, as always !
Man I love your lessons! U just earned a sub and a like 👍 this is sum good stuff! 🔥
Way to be on top of those bots! That can't be easy.
When are you going to do that sale again for your membership so I can join it. 😅
thanks Ben
One time the markets didn't hit bottom once then recover while the economy failed was the great depression. Stocks tumbled worse the 2nd time and stayed low for 30 years. Also the fed refused to act then as well.
Thankyou. More of these please mate 🤙
Great video Ben! 💯❤️👍💀
Thanks Ben. Good stuff.
Great job Ben-many THX!!
Thanks!
very helpful
We could be only half way down yet. From what I see, after YOY inflation peaks (USIRYY) and starts coming down, it seems to bring the stock market (and employment) down with it. Looking a lot like August 08.
great video!
Ahhh yes the macroeconomic verse
from this it seems like the s&p has just started and still has a long way down to go. does it mean its more likely for btc to the same and probably visit 10k if not lower?
Good content but I think as long as the yield is below real inflation, big money has no interest in buying bonds.
Into the no-advert-verse.
Thanks Ben, very helpful 👍
Great video Ben thanks..... Says alot....
Thanks BEN.
Nice I've been working on a Twitter thread about this
Great video bro
Thank U, Ben
More macroeconomics Ben. More.
Solid video
anyone know what charting system Ben is using here?
Helpful!
Brilliant! Thanx Ben. Could you make a video on what investments/strategies are good/have proven good in a recession? 10q
Good one.Recession next year maybe?
Your hair has entered the crypto winter Benjamin … time to get a hair cut lol
Lol
What about stablecoins with double digit APY?
thanks ben, finally undertand this. wrote some scripts aswell
:)
Until Ben's charts say we're close to or have hit the bottom I'm not budging.
how high will the usd go?
Ben, your hairline is indicating a V shape recovery
More macro please!
god bless you man
If retail can’t afford housing, rent and work part-time, without benefits, with higher average CPI continuing, with uncertainty with regards to future entitlement spending by the government and learning that ai automation means less broader options for all college graduates to obtain a higher paid career, after graduating college with $100 to $200k debt, then the only remaining retirement option outside of collecting UBI is to buy risky long term options like crypto and top equity stocks, The smart part time worker/retail investor ‘who researches their options will DCA the bear market dips. ps. as we all know politics have their heads in the sand when it comes to real unemployment, out of the work force numbers and much higher homeless numbers. At what point do we move from MMT and risk on risk off investing and pivot to long term infrastructure spending to increase economic activity.
Best content on the fucking net!!!
Macroverse Ben
I... am actually studying economics at university. XD
Then why are you not making videos for us?
@@intothecryptoverse I have been thinking about it. But you know that thing where you know that you know more than the average person but you also know there are people out there with even better understanding. That's why I like watching your channel a lot. I've honestly learned more from you and a few others about economics than some of my actual classes. Y'all keep it real.
@@intothecryptoverse also I'm barely starting my junior year. I do have a lot to learn.
So buy bitcoins?
ben
Market is F’d
Forbes hasn’t wrote me back yet
Macroeconomics-verse lol
What about the crazy spike in unemployment on the chart? Seems like the elephant in the corner
TL;DR: Strap the fuck in everyone
💪🏻⚡