The Acceleration of Climate Change and the Complexity of the Energy Transition

Speaker: Ray Leonard, President Anglo-Eurasia LLC
Due to cascading impacts and compounds events, the increase in radiative forcing, or energy flux in the atmosphere surpassed in 2021 the level predicted in the IPCC 2013 report for 2030. Based on the complete IPCC 2021/22 report, the world will reach 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial time by 2030 with a high probability of 2 degrees by 2050. The effects will be profound but predictable and preparations need to be made to deal with the consequences.
Multiple factors contribute to climate change, including variations in solar radiation and ocean currents as well as the changes in levels of greenhouse related gases and effects of pollution. As temperatures rise over 2 deg. C above pre-industrial levels in the second half of the century climatic tipping points will become an increased threat.
Significant progress was made in the energy transition in the past decade with the ratio of CO2 emission increase compared to energy increase dropping to 0.5; the two most significant elements have been replacing coal with gas as a power source and the rise of solar and wind power. The challenge of flattening the level of CO2 emissions and then actual reduction is compromised by inefficiencies in utilization of technologies now employed and misallocation of resources in which most of investment is going to regions with declining share of emissions. New technologies have been developed that have the potential to lead to an actual decrease in CO2 emissions and based on historical precedent, will reach full commercialization in the 2030-2070 period.
The world is on course to reach 3 deg. C above pre-industrial time by the end of this century, likely leading to several climate tipping points, with potentially devastating effects. To alter that course, it is vital to distinguish between factors beyond our control due to natural forces and the accumulated effects of industrialization of the past century and efforts we can make to more efficiently utilize existing technologies and accelerate commercialization of new technologies.

[@OldJackWolf]

I've always known that the system the IPCC uses under-calls the timing and scale of the change. But if its this bad using those IPCC figures, well, I hope everyone has a cave to run to. Personally, we already found ours. We moved north and away from the oceans about 5 years ago. And oddly enough, I found others that moved or stayed here for the same reason.

[@evank3718]

Here before Antarctica thaws